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Rickey Henderson (1958-2024): Split Him in Two, You’d Have Two Hall of Famers

Tony Tomsic-USA TODAY NETWORK

Rickey Henderson had something to offer everyone. He was a Bay Area icon who spent more than half his career wearing the green and gold of the Oakland Athletics, yet he was traded away twice, and spent time with eight other teams scattered from Boston to San Diego, all of them viewing him as the missing piece in their quest for a playoff spot. For fans of a throwback version of baseball that emphasized speed and stolen bases, “The Man of Steal” put up numbers that eclipsed the single-season and career records of Lou Brock and Ty Cobb. To those who viewed baseball through the new-fangled lens of sabermetrics, he was the platonic ideal of a leadoff hitter, an on-base machine who developed considerable power. To critics — including some opponents — he was a showboat as well as a malcontent who complained about being underpaid and wouldn’t take the field due to minor injuries. To admirers, he was baseball’s most electrifying player, a fierce competitor, flamboyant entertainer, and inner-circle Hall of Famer. After a 25-year major league career full of broken records (not to mention the fourth-highest total of games played, ahem), Henderson spent his age-45 and -46 seasons wowing fans in independent leagues, hoping for one last shot at the majors.

It never came, but Henderson’s résumé could have hardly been more complete. A 10-time All-Star, two-time world champion, an MVP and Gold Glove winner, he collected 3,055 hits and set the career records for stolen bases (1,406), runs scored (2,295), and walks (2,190); the last was eclipsed by Barry Bonds three years later, though Henderson still has more unintentional walks (2,129). He also holds the single-season record for stolen bases (130), as well as the single-season and career records for caught stealing (42 and 335, respectively).

“If you could split him in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers. The greatest base stealer of all time, the greatest power/speed combination of all time (except maybe Barry Bonds), the greatest leadoff man of all time,” wrote Bill James for The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract in 2001. “Without exaggerating one inch, you could find fifty Hall of Famers who, all taken together, don’t own as many records, and as many important records, as Rickey Henderson.” Read the rest of this entry »


Unfuzzing the Strike Zone

David Richard-Imagn Images

Sports Info Solutions has been tracking every pitch thrown in Major League Baseball since 2002, and since the beginning, those pitches have been hitting the strike zone less and less frequently. You can check the tumbling year-over-year numbers over on our pitch-level data leaderboard, but if you want to spare yourself a click, I pulled them into the graph below. It paints a damning picture of the command of today’s stuff-over-stamina, throw-it-hard-before-your-elbow-explodes pitchers. Don’t go near this graph if you’re on roller skates:

If you ever feel the need to shake your fist at young pitchers and mutter about loud music and fastball command, this is the graph for you. SIS has documented the percentage of pitches that hit the strike zone dropping from the low 50s to the low 40s over the last 20 years. Combine that with the game’s ever-increasing focus on velocity and stuff, and you’ve got a nice, tidy narrative: today’s pitchers are too focused on throwing hard to know where the hell they’re throwing the ball. However, the truth is a bit more complicated. It’s important to keep in mind that the SIS numbers come from real life human beings who analyze video to track pitches, while the friendly robot that powers Statcast has its definition of the strike zone set in digital stone. Read the rest of this entry »


2025 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

In return for their mini-free agent spree after nearly making the playoffs in 2023, the Cincinnati Reds dropped five wins, finishing 2024 with a 77-85 record. It wasn’t as bad as it looked — the team improved its Pythagorean record by five wins compared to the year before — but it felt lousy that only Nick Martinez really shined among their signings. Elly De La Cruz did break out in a massive way — he was a legitimate MVP contender for much of the season — but Matt McLain’s torn labrum and rib injury kept him away from the action.

A look at the depth chart graphic makes it pretty clear where the Reds are strong: Even with some regression toward the mean, De La Cruz is the team’s most important player, and if healthy, McLain will upgrade second base. Continuing the up-the-middle strength is Jose Trevino, recently acquired from the Yankees; he and Tyler Stephenson give the Reds an excellent tandem behind the plate. TJ Friedl in center gets a less exciting projection, but he’s still perfectly serviceable as a starter, and he’s the worst projected player of the up-the-middle quartet. Read the rest of this entry »


Sean Manaea and the Mets Run It Back

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Every story written about the Mets this offseason starts with Juan Soto, but pretty much all of them immediately introduce a caveat: “They’ll also need to sign more pitching.” And it’s true! The Mets, as constituted after signing Soto, had a fearsome top of the lineup and a mystery box of a pitching staff. But they also had money, which can be exchanged for goods and services, and now they’ve given that money to Sean Manaea, who signed a three-year, $75 million deal to return to Queens last week.

Manaea was comfortably the team’s best starter in 2024. He signed a one-year prove-it deal that valued him somewhere between a swingman and a fourth starter, and he delivered the goods, to the tune of a 3.47 ERA over 181 innings of work. He got even better in the second half, adopting a new cross-fire delivery and changing the shape of his fastball for the better. A down postseason hardly put a damper on his year; the 2024 version of Manaea fulfilled the promise he’d shown since breaking into the majors in 2016.

The question, then, is whether he can do it again. There’s plenty of reason to believe he can. Manaea’s fastball plays much better from a low slot, and he misses enough bats to run an above-average strikeout rate even without a true wipeout pitch. He also got his walk rate under control in the second half of the year, which has long been a sticking point in his game. It’s not so much that Manaea’s wild, but at his best, he was running walk rates around 5%, and that number had ballooned into the 8-9% region in recent years. After changing his delivery in late July, he walked only 6.2% of opposing batters. He’s never going to strike out a gaudy number of guys, but if he isn’t issuing free passes, his stuff keeps hitters off balance and results in a lot of easy innings even without strikeouts. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe’s 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

“What do I do about Félix Hernández?” Even before my 2025 Hall of Fame ballot arrived in the mail in late November, that question loomed over my plans to fill it out. Anticipating a crunch for space but knowing that the former Cy Young winner — who’s on the ballot for the first time this year — is significantly short of the S-JAWS standard, the easy answer of leaving him off was always right there. Yet given years of discussion regarding the changing landscape for starting pitchers (and by extension, starting pitcher candidates), I decided to sit with the possibility of voting for him right up to the point where I reached for my pen.

I’ll take you through my process regarding the Félix question soon enough. This is my fifth year with an actual ballot, but filling one out and having it count still feels like a novelty in the context of 24 years of analyzing Hall of Fame elections, and 22 of doing so while armed with the system that became JAWS (the official 20th anniversary of the metric’s introduction was in January). With so many mentors, peers, and colleagues having come and gone in this racket, I’m grateful to have stuck around long enough to have earned the right to vote, and it’s a privilege I look forward to, even with the accompanying scrutiny and criticism. Read the rest of this entry »


And Teoscar Goes to… the Dodgers

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It’s important in life, as well as in baseball, to know when a relationship has run its course and it’s time to shake hands and part on good terms. Equally, if conversely, it’s important to know when not to screw with something that works.

So Teoscar Hernández is coming back to Los Angeles. The hard-hitting outfielder will make $22 million per year for three years, with a club option for a fourth at $15 million. Because this is the Dodgers, there’s all sorts of accounting rigmarole baked into the contract: a $23 million signing bonus, and another $23 million in deferred money, which will drop the value of the contract for CBT purposes (by exactly how much, we don’t know quite yet). Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Q&A and Sunday Notes: The Best Quotes of 2024

Author’s Note: Sunday Notes is off this week due to a health scare — I’m now home recovering — so my annual Best Quotes compilation is being bumped back from the 31st to fill the void. As always, thanks for reading.

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In 2024, I once again had an opportunity to interview numerous people within the game. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came via an assortment of Q&As, feature stories, and my Talks Hitting series. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations, with the bolded lines linking to the pieces they were excerpted from.

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“When you say hitting, I’m assuming that you mean striking the ball. There is so much that goes into the striking of the baseball. There are a lot of moving parts mechanically [and] mentally that culminate into the perfect storm of creating that compression between the barrel of the bat and the ball.” — Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox first baseman

“When you’re not hitting… I mean, who likes being bad at something? Hitting is hard. So, it’s fun, but you have to embrace the struggles. As a hitter, you know you’re going to struggle. You’re also going to not struggle.” — Julio Rodríguez,, Seattle Mariners outfielder

“The guy I talked to about doing it was doing some analytics stuff and video scouting for us at the time. It was [current Reds GM] Nick Krall. I loved talking with Nick before he was the big dog. I mean, there was the manager getting some information from one of the lowest guys on the totem pole. I think the talk shows probably would have died if I told them who I was getting information from.” — Jerry Narron, former Cincinnati Reds manager

“How much should you really value analytics versus guys who go out on the field and get outs consistently? If a guy has Stuff+ metrics that are off the chart — this guy shouldn’t get hit — but the hitters tell you different, versus a guy that maybe has below-average stuff but he goes out and carves every time out. Which matters? You have to be able to pitch.” — Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers pitcher

“I’m a heavy supination pitcher. When I drop down and throw that supinated pitch, it creates the seam shift for everything — the two-seam and the changeup. I didn’t know about any of this until I got with [Bannister] in spring training. He kind of showed me how it worked.” — Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants pitcher

“I wanted to throw it back in the day, in the minor leagues with the Giants, but I was fresh from being drafted and they said, ‘Save that for when you need it, maybe when your stuff starts slowing down a little bit.’ I was like, ‘All right. Cool. Whatever.’” — Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher

“I’m not into French Impressionism as much as, say, modern abstract. That’s one that I like, but I wouldn’t say I’m pigeonholed into one genre. I’ll see something and be, ‘Man, I really like that,’ or maybe it’s, ‘I think that’s a little overrated.’ I guess that’s just like any of us when it comes to art.” — Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres pitcher

“I think it would be disingenuous for any scouting director, or front office, to say that they don’t pay attention to mock drafts by respected third-party publications, especially as you get closer to the draft. Now, do we rely on our internal data to make draft decisions? Yes, of course.” — Dan Kantrovitz, Chicago Cubs VP of Scouting

“One of the reasons we maybe walked past an Aaron Judge… I mean, our evaluations were really strong, but the fact that he struck out so much in college was a bit of a red flag. I think we learned a little bit from that. At the same time, guys who strike out generally strike out.” — Eric Kubota, Oakland Athletics Scouting Director

“Tim Wilken once said to me, ‘Don’t laugh at mine and I won’t laugh at yours.’ Another one he would always say is, ‘Once you see a guy good, don’t go back.’ But there I was in Philly and Mike [Trout] was right down the road playing. So I went to see again and the look wasn’t as clean.” — Tom Allison, Los Angeles Dodgers special assignment scout

“D-Train. He was another competitor, a plus competitor and a good athlete for a big guy. Unconventional delivery, right? He had the big leg kick, almost up over his head; probably not the type of mechanics that you would teach, but it worked for him.” — Mike Redmond, Colorado Rockies bench coach

“Green light. If I gave him a red light and told him not to go, I don’t know what the hell would happen. He’s got a green light even when he’s got a red light. He doesn’t care. He’s running.” — Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays manager

“There are a handful of games where I’ve felt that way, like, ‘Man, this is a really good baseball game going on.’ When you come out on the bad end it kind of sucks, but you try to have that appreciation for ‘That was a really good one.’” — Aaron Boone, New York Yankees manager

“I don’t have good hop. My four-seam performs like it has hop, but it actually doesn’t have it. I throw it from… I like to call it ‘throwing it from the basement’ as opposed to throwing from above your head. That’s where you find the vertical approach that is more down to up.” — Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros pitcher

“If all you’re looking for is ‘stuff,’ you’re completely misunderstanding the game. Eventually the game will either force you to understand it, or you’re just going to be out of the game. You have to understand the art of pitching.” — Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher

“I think that as the baseball world evolves with technology, you kind of see what’s important and what’s not. I’ve kind of followed that path. For me, it’s not ‘I don’t think this is important,’ but more so ‘This happens because of this.’” — Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds pitcher

“Their stuff is off the charts. Jones has a chance to be really, really good. His pitch mix, his velocity, his athleticism. And then Skenes came as advertised with some of the more dominant combinations that you’ll face from a young pitcher.” — A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers manager

“I’ve probably held a million baseballs in my life. I mean, as a person who holds a lot of balls — for lack of better words — I can tell you very minuscule details that are different. I have to. Think about how precise we have to be with throwing them, how much we have to spin and locate.” — Marco Gonzales, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher

“My basketball game was somewhat similar to my baseball game. I kind of did the right things. I knew what to do. I knew where to go. I averaged around 15 points in high school. It was [a big school]. We had over 2,000 kids. There are a lot of big schools in Georgia.” — Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs shortstop

“I love to play soccer. I love to watch soccer. I played until I was 15, I want to say, right before I signed to play professional baseball. I got a lot of goals. Number 9 [traditionally the number worn by strikers/center forwards]. Both feet.” — Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman

“I’m a left-knee-down guy, and I go to two feet if a runner steals. Growing up, and even now, you find people who don’t understand why catchers are on one knee. It allows you to be in better positions to pull strikes and get in front of balls. It makes catching a lot easier, overall. — Kyle Teel, Boston Red Sox catching prospect

“I never got the half-ass award, but I did have a big one. You know those big green Physio Balls you work out with? Danny Jansen and I were in the cage before a game, and he kicked one to me. I swung at it with my bat, and when I hit it, the bat came back and gave me 11 stitches above my eye. It knocked me out.” — Rowdy Tellez, Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman

“When the elevator doors open, Bruce Kimm, the Braves manager is there. He had knots, shiners, black eyes. I said, ‘Man, I didn’t know we got you that good.’ He looked like he’d been hit by Mohammed Ali 25 times. I felt bad. But yeah, that team got in a lot of fights.” — Doug Glanville, ESPN broadcaster

“You can’t fix hop. That’s ‘pow!’ You can fix dip. What I mean by dip, the ball is going at their feet; it’s going down. You can fix that type of stuff. But you can’t fix hop. Hop just has that in it.” — Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angles manager

“I’d had one home run all year, and then in our three-game conference tournament I had three, including two in the championship. And again, I pitched seven innings. I was Shohei Ohtani that day. That’s the way I like to think of it.” — Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher

“A fly ball gets hit down the right field line, and the kid starts running. Then he stops at the line. He reaches into foul territory, trying to catch the ball like a football guy trying to stay in bounds. The ball landed out of his reach, foul. In the dugout, we were like, ‘What just happened?’” — Fredi Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles bench coach

“Growing up, I knew every batting average. I could tell you the starting lineup for probably every team in the big leagues. Even coming up [as a player], watching the game the way I did, that was the case. Getting into coaching, I could tell you every coach on every team as well. There’s a lot more turnover now.” — Bob Melvin, San Francisco Giants manager

“We got in on Wednesday night and Boston was playing Baltimore on Thursday. So, I bought a ticket in the center field bleachers and floated around, watching the game. I wanted to realign my perspective and watch as a fan.” — Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels catcher

“[After I retire], it will probably be tough watching just as a fan. That’s the hard part. The game is always so much easier sitting on the couch. I’ll try to keep the perspective of a player, knowing how hard this game really is, but at the end of the day, I’ll be sitting at home wondering what I’d do with this hitter. That’s always going to be in me.” — Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs pitcher

“We get calls on a lot of our players and we have to listen. We have to hear the conversation… What we tell every team is, ‘Listen, we’re open to being creative.’ We can’t rule anything out before we hear it, no matter who the player is.” — Derek Falvey, Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations

“I was like, ‘I get stuck, because internally I feel like I have the ability to be crafty, but it’s also my nature to just be a power pitcher. That’s my competitor, my inner competitor. That’s kind of what fuels my fire.” — Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox pitcher

“A lot of the time I’ll throw a pitch and it gets misclassified; a certain pitch will be called something else. I’m still the same pitcher — I’m fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, sinker — but sometimes the slider gets a little bit cutter-y and sometimes it gets a little bit sweeper-y. That’s kind of been the case my whole career.” — Max Fried, Atlanta Braves pitcher

“We get the kinematic sequencing, the front leg blocking, the horizontal abduction — the AB deduction of the elbow — pelvis rotational speeds. Every biomechanical piece out there. Our biomechanist gives me a good report on each guy, what they’re doing stride length, stride width, whether they’re landing closed or more open.” — Scott Emerson, Oakland Athletics pitching coach

“You’ve got outliers. You’ll see [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto go out deep before a start. At our park, he went from the foul line all the way to the right field bullpen, which is maybe 240 or so, He may have gone further if he had space. Trevor Bauer used to go foul pole to foul pole. Gerrit usually won’t go past 100-120.” — Matt Blake, New York Yankees pitching coach

“It’s like a one-seam gyro spin that catches. It’s a bigger horizontal break than a regular gyro slider. It’s not depth-y, but shoots to the left pretty good. A sweeper is going to have side spin. Gyros have bullet spin. A gyro sweeper is bullet spin, but with one seam… one seam that catches. A seam-shift gyro.” — Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals pitcher

“Those guys have pop. They can hit it farther than me. Colton Cowser. I joke around with him. ‘Bro, you’re a skinny dude. You crush the ball. Wow. How do you do it?’ I don’t have that kind of pop. But I can hit in the game.” — Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles outfielder

“Even though you’re 0-for-20, you’re still going to put the cleats on. You’re going to go out there thinking, ‘OK, today it shifts. I’m going to go 10 for my next 10.’ So, yeah, hitting is fun. It’s always fun.” — Tre Morgan, Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect

“I kind of took [Kodai] Senga’s grip a little bit. It’s like a mix of Senga and [Kevin] Gausman. I have the horseshoe rotated here [on the ring side of the middle finger] and then the other one kind of splits between the lace. I actually found it on a Tread video on YouTube.” — Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners pitcher

“You see guys from my slot throwing sinkers and it’s predictable. You know which way it’s going to move. But with a four-seam from my slot, it’s not predictable. You don’t expect the ball to move that way, and that’s where hitters kind of get messed up with it.” — Tayler Scott, Houston Astros pitcher

“I don’t think I’m a guy who can throw one pitch and say, ‘Here it comes, try to hit it.’ Statistically, I don’t know that I actually have a best pitch.” — Tyler Holton, Detroit Tigers pitcher

“We’re not allowed to have cell phones, but if somebody comes out to the ‘pen late, we’ll be asking, ‘Hey, what did so-and-so do?’ or whatever. We can also maybe ask a fan or a security guard, ‘Hey, what’s going on with the Cowboys game?’” — Chris Martin, Boston Red Sox pitcher

“The kick change… basically, you kick the axis of the ball into that three o’clock axis. You kind of get that saucer-type spin to get the depth that a guy who could pronate a changeup would get to. You’re not using a seam-shift method. You’re not truly pronating. It’s kind of this cheat to get to that three o’clock axis.” — Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox pitcher

“I truly try everything. I catch one knee, catch two knees, left knee up, left knee down, both knees down. I’m trying it all. I’m figuring out what works best for me. But I can catch however. I’ll use all three in the same game.” — Ethan Salas, San Diego Padres catching prospect

“Growing up, I kind of had a natural, sweet lefty swing, As I kept getting bigger I had to keep working at it, working with my coaches back home, working on trying to stay short. Consistency is the biggest key, especially for a guy my size.” — Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants, first base prospect

“In the 2024 baseball universe, our starters are pretty optimized. And I think there is a distinction between optimized and maxed out. We’re not looking to max out and get every possible pitch out of our starters, we’re looking to optimize the performance of our team.” — Justin Hollander, Seattle Mariners GM

“I think the line between starter and reliever is blurring… I don’t think it will be hard to replicate what we did last year if we choose to pursue that nontraditional pitching strategy of a reliever starting a game, then a starter-type pitching the bulk innings, and then relievers coming in at the end of a game.” — Scott Harris, Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations

“At times there have been pursuits of bat speed and bat speed development programs. There have also been feedback loops related to swing decisions and quality of approach. Ultimately, we are emphasizing the things that we want to value. At the end of the day it’s about run creation.” — Ross Fenstermaker, Texas Rangers GM

“To me, hitting is not so much about swinging. Obviously, you have to swing to hit the ball, but swinging isn’t hitting. Hitting is making the right decision. It’s knowing the pitcher. It’s knowing what the situation calls for. The swing comes last.” — Mark Loretta, San Diego Padres special assistant

“For a young kid reading this, my message would be to not try to be anything you’re not. If you’re a contact guy, don’t try to hit home runs. Be yourself, knowing that the best you can do is the best you can do.” — Colt Emerson, Seattle Mariners infield prospect

“With Fenway, they wanted you to use the Monster. They were working a lot on airside, pull stuff with me. That just wasn’t the type of hitter I was. Trying to do that, the power output never really went up. What happened is the swing-and-miss went up, and the hit-ability went down a little bit.” — Nick Yorke, Pittsburgh Pirates infielder

“Philosophically, we pride ourselves on the ability to co-design with our athletes. Our hitters have a say in their development. We’re not dictating to them what they need to do… As an organization and a department, we’re data-informed, but we’re not data-driven.” — Brenton Del Chiaro, Milwaukee Brewers assistant director of player development

“We take that crystal ball and try to incrementally improve it, decision after decision after decision… We never think we have this thing figured out. We’ve kept notes from prior meetings — 5, 10, 15 years ago — and they’re terrible. The goal for five years from now, if I’m fortunate enough to still be here doing this, is that we look back at our thoughts on what makes sense today, and think we’re idiots.” — Erik Neander, Tampa Bay Rays, president of baseball operations


Sun Burnes: Arizona Signs Ace Righty Corbin Burnes to Anchor Rotation

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Last offseason, the Diamondbacks were in search of a marquee starter to pair with Zac Gallen atop their rotation. The market was thin at the top – Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani were probably never available to them, so their best options were Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, and Jordan Montgomery. They signed two of those guys, and neither delivered the rotation-stabilizing performance they had expected. But instead of waving their hands in the air and raving at the injustice of variance, the Diamondbacks got right back on the horse:

BREAKING: Corbin Burnes to Diamondbacks, $210M, 6 years. opt out after 2 years

Jon Heyman (@jonheyman.bsky.social) 2024-12-28T06:32:12.313Z

Corbin Burnes was the best free agent pitcher available. In each of the last five seasons, he’s been one of the top pitchers in the game, racking up a 2.88 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 816 innings pitched. He’s second in WAR (21.7) over that time frame, second in RA9-WAR (23.2), second in strikeouts (946), and third in innings pitched. In other words, he’s been a capital-A Ace, a set-it-and-forget-it choice at the top of the starting rotation. He’ll receive $35 million a year for six seasons, with an opt-out after the second year of the deal, which also includes a $10 million signing bonus.

With Gallen also on their dance card, the Diamondbacks have one of the best one-two combinations in the majors. That doesn’t even include Merrill Kelly, a borderline All-Star when healthy, or Brandon Pfaadt, who looked like he was finally breaking out before a rough final two months of the season. Add in Montgomery and Rodriguez, and Arizona goes six deep with plausible playoff starters. That’s how you injury-proof a rotation – sheer depth.
Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Ian Kinsler

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Even as an amateur, Ian Kinsler spent most of his career in someone else’s shadow. At Canyon Del Oro High School in Tucson, Arizona — where he played on two state champion teams — and then at Central Arizona Junior College, he played alongside players who were picked much higher in the draft. After transferring to Arizona State, he lost the starting shortstop job to Dustin Pedroia, who had initially moved to second base to accommodate his arrival. With the Rangers, for whom he starred from 2006–13, he was a vital cog on two pennant winners but took a back seat to MVP Josh Hamilton, future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltré, and perennial All-Star shortstop Michael Young. Even after being dealt to the Tigers, he drew less attention than Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, or Max Scherzer.

Particularly in the developmental phase of his career, those slights and oversights left Kinsler with a chip on his shoulder, but also a drive to improve — and improve he did. He starred at his third collegiate stop, the University of Missouri, helped the Rangers emerge as an American League powerhouse while making three All-Star teams, added another All-Star selection in Detroit and won two belated but well-earned Gold Gloves. His 48 leadoff home runs ranks sixth all-time. Twice he combined 30 homers and 30 steals in the same season, making him one of just 16 players with repeat membership in the 30-30 club. For the 2007–16 period, he ranked among the game’s most valuable players by WAR via a combination of excellent defense, very good baserunning, and above-average hitting. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Dustin Pedroia

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Because of his size — officially 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, but by his own admission, a couple inches shorter — Dustin Pedroia was consistently underestimated. Though he took to baseball as a toddler and excelled all the way through high school and Arizona State University, scouts viewed him as having below-average tools because of his stature. He barely grazed prospect lists before reaching the majors, but once he settled in, he quickly excelled. He won American League Rookie of the Year honors while helping the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series, then took home the MVP award the next year, when he was just 24.

Over the course of his 14-year career, Pedroia played a pivotal role in helping the Red Sox win one more World Series, made four All-Star teams, and banked four Gold Gloves. Understandably, he became a fan favorite, not only for his stellar play but because of the way he carried himself, radiating self-confidence to the point of cockiness, and always quick with a quip. “Pedie never shuts up, man,” Manny Ramirez told ESPN Magazine’s Jeff Bradley for a 2008 piece called “170 Pounds of Mouth.” Continued Ramirez, “He’s a little crazy. But that’s why we love him. He talks big and makes us all laugh.” Read the rest of this entry »