Archive for Featured

Sunday Notes: Chris Woodward is Bullish on Willie Calhoun and the Rangers’ Offense

Count the Texas Rangers among teams who are tweaking their approach to hitting. That much was clear when I spoke to Chris Woodward during the regular season, and again during the Winter Meetings. In our recent conversation, I asked the 43-year-old manager who stands out as having made the most progress in 2019.

“In my eyes, Willie Calhoun probably made the biggest jump,” said Woodward. “Joey Gallo, as well, before he got hurt. But Willie really, really bought into a lot of things that made him successful. He had different swings for different pitches. He’d go into a game knowing, ‘Is this guy sinking the ball, or is he going to be spinning me with curveballs?’ He’d know what kind of swing path he needed. Willie was able to manipulate, and be versatile enough with his swing, to almost have two or three different swings.”

Calhoun would sometimes use different bats for different pitchers. While the biggest determiner was the hurler’s handedness, repertoires were also a consideration.

The flexibility paid dividends. Previously unproven and unpolished,the 25-year-old (as of last month) outfielder slashed .269/.323/.524, and went deep 21 times in just 337 plate appearances. A year earlier, he’d scuffled to the tune of a .602 OPS in a 35-game big-league cameo as the club’s No. 1 prospect. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

They took a winding road to get there, but the Mets’ core offensive talent is all on the 25-man, all still under 30, and generally speaking, are all free from odd playing time restrictions once due to the presence of inferior veterans at their same positions. Jake Marisnick will likely get a lot of time in center, but given that Brandon Nimmo is coming off of injury, having Marisnick on the roster is smart; he’s a capable fourth outfielder and not famous enough or well paid enough that a healthy Nimmo won’t be able to wrest away the lion’s share of the playing time.

ZiPS didn’t like what it saw in Robinson Canó’s 2019; he now projects as one of the team’s weaker players, but there isn’t an obvious replacement at the moment. Jed Lowrie is still hanging around, at least until the Mets convince someone to take his contract (which is unlikely given the plethora of 1.5 WAR middle infielders still available), but his health is still iffy and he’d have to be clearly better to take Canó’s job. I don’t believe he is. Sadly, Canó no longer projects to finish with 3000 hits, though he’s likely already wrapped up his Hall of Fame candidacy in any case.

Pitchers

A Jacob deGromNoah SyndergaardMarcus Stroman top of the rotation is a top three that can compete with that of any team in the majors. I’m not sure if the Mets have truly given up their strange dream to trade Thor, but as of right now, he’s a Met and that’s where he’s being projected. The Mets have at least six major league-caliber starters with the additions of Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. The conventional wisdom is that Steven Matz is the odd man out one or the other, but I’m not convinced that’s the case. Now, Matz may very well be traded this winter, but I’m not sure it’s a given that he’s the one sent to the bullpen if he’s still a Met in April. I know Wacha joined the team with the intention of being a starter, but he’s also coming off injuries and a $3 million salary typically isn’t enough to have much leverage over what position you actually play.

The best news here is that ZiPS is projecting bounce-back seasons for Edwin Díaz and Jeurys Familia. Diaz looked awful in 2019, but who doesn’t look awful when allowing 2.33 HR/9 and a .377 BABIP? Based on the advanced hit data, ZiPS doesn’t think Díaz ought to have fared this poorly in either stat last season. After Díaz, it’s not the flashiest bunch, but the computer thinks they’ll far exceed their miserable 0.7 WAR from 2019, which was 24th in baseball and last among the contending teams.

Prospects

One problem for the Mets is that they don’t have a lot of short-term depth in the upper minors as injury replacements. That’s partially why they’ve been a Who’s Who of washed up outfielders at Triple-A the last few years. ZiPS doesn’t think Luis Guillorme will do much to force a change at second base, and doesn’t believe Andrés Giménez’s bat is quite ready, despite a glove that projects as above-average. Ronny Mauricio is farther off, and the computer doesn’t really have much to say about him at this point, but no matter what, it’s unlikely he shoots up to the majors in 2020. Of course, I said that about Juan Soto once!

The one prospect ZiPS is excited about in the short-term is David Peterson, the big lefty sinkerballer drafted in the first round in 2017. ZiPS thinks that Peterson is already in the same tier as Wacha or Porcello, but given that the Mets are likely contenders in 2020, it would be reasonable to expect the team to go with their most established players, rather than have Peterson adjust to the majors in games that matter. Like Porcello and Stroman, Peterson’s numbers are likely to be sensitive to the Mets infield defense, which will improve by having less of J.D. Davis in it.

He’s not really a prospect, but the Mets still seem inclined to let Tim Tebow get time in the upper minors for some reason, and they haven’t slammed the door on the possibility of actually giving him some kind of playing time in the majors. zDEF thinks that Tebow has improved defensively — my system estimated him at a ludicrously awful -25 runs in left field in 2017, the worst in my database — but he’s never done enough offensively to doubt the scouts who think he doesn’t have the skillset to contribute at the major league level. At least the Mets don’t have a significant prospect above Single-A for him to block!

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Pete Alonso R 25 1B 620 539 85 137 27 2 43 108 62 162 1 2
Jeff McNeil L 28 3B 573 519 77 152 32 4 19 71 35 73 7 4
Michael Conforto L 27 RF 607 516 83 132 27 1 31 96 78 148 6 3
Amed Rosario R 24 SS 638 598 76 164 28 9 14 64 31 118 21 10
Brandon Nimmo L 27 CF 431 355 57 84 18 4 13 45 63 116 5 3
Wilson Ramos R 32 C 460 421 42 115 19 0 14 68 34 69 1 0
Todd Frazier R 34 3B 504 444 60 101 18 1 20 72 47 113 4 4
Jed Lowrie B 36 2B 506 452 53 110 24 1 13 56 49 99 0 0
J.D. Davis R 27 LF 497 452 62 120 24 1 21 65 38 122 3 1
Rene Rivera R 36 C 325 297 31 64 8 0 14 44 21 101 0 0
Yoenis Cespedes R 34 LF 255 230 32 59 11 1 13 41 21 61 1 0
Robinson Cano L 37 2B 377 346 40 90 23 0 9 39 25 59 0 0
Joe Panik L 29 2B 497 443 54 113 21 3 7 46 43 47 4 2
Jake Marisnick R 29 CF 311 285 45 64 15 2 11 33 17 90 10 4
Luis Guillorme L 25 2B 431 381 44 93 15 1 5 31 41 69 3 3
Dominic Smith L 25 LF 503 462 61 117 24 1 16 58 36 117 2 2
Max Moroff B 27 SS 321 271 39 52 10 1 9 39 45 102 4 2
Juan Lagares R 31 CF 270 247 33 56 11 2 4 22 17 64 5 2
Andres Gimenez L 21 SS 508 463 49 101 20 5 9 41 24 129 23 16
Jarrett Parker L 31 RF 371 325 44 66 12 1 15 46 42 133 2 2
David Rodriguez R 24 C 342 314 31 63 13 2 6 30 21 95 3 2
Austin Bossart R 26 C 267 240 23 45 9 0 5 21 21 74 1 0
Ruben Tejada R 30 3B 344 313 35 72 16 1 4 27 21 62 2 2
Danny Espinosa B 33 SS 453 407 45 78 14 0 12 47 32 140 9 3
Ali Sanchez R 23 C 373 348 33 76 16 1 4 27 21 70 2 2
Tomas Nido R 26 C 311 293 27 64 14 1 7 33 13 70 0 0
Patrick Mazeika L 26 C 426 384 42 83 17 1 10 42 33 89 1 0
Carlos Gómez R 34 CF 329 294 32 61 13 1 9 32 20 92 10 5
Gavin Cecchini R 26 2B 389 357 39 83 15 1 6 32 27 79 4 3
Aaron Altherr R 29 RF 318 281 36 57 13 2 9 40 29 92 5 3
Rymer Liriano R 29 RF 366 324 40 63 9 1 12 38 36 135 7 4
Will Toffey L 25 3B 335 291 33 54 13 1 5 24 41 105 3 2
Arismendy Alcantara B 28 LF 392 360 45 79 14 5 12 44 28 116 14 4
Barrett Barnes R 28 RF 370 325 37 61 14 1 7 33 33 120 4 3
Quinn Brodey L 24 CF 474 435 42 87 18 3 9 41 31 148 9 4
Braxton Lee L 26 CF 458 412 41 91 14 2 3 28 35 113 8 7
Luis Carpio R 22 2B 439 400 40 83 17 1 8 35 33 95 4 11
Sam Haggerty B 26 2B 406 355 40 68 14 5 4 26 43 127 18 6
Rajai Davis R 39 CF 307 285 33 61 7 2 5 21 12 73 14 6
Jeremy Vasquez L 23 1B 558 502 51 113 22 3 7 45 48 119 2 3
Austin Jackson R 33 CF 272 248 26 59 13 1 3 23 21 77 2 2
Carlos Cortes L 23 2B 503 457 49 99 18 4 9 46 36 100 4 5
Travis Taijeron R 31 1B 450 392 49 73 18 2 16 51 46 183 2 2
Michael Paez R 25 2B 431 388 39 78 16 1 7 33 30 100 3 6
Gregor Blanco L 36 RF 352 315 37 67 10 3 6 25 32 90 9 4
Wagner Lagrange R 24 LF 407 378 36 82 16 3 5 31 22 91 2 3
Edgardo Fermin R 22 2B 379 353 32 64 13 5 6 31 17 126 8 6
David Thompson R 26 1B 464 425 44 87 20 1 9 41 27 123 7 3
Blake Tiberi L 25 3B 486 437 46 88 18 1 4 29 42 121 9 4
Tim Tebow L 32 LF 328 303 25 49 10 1 4 20 19 138 2 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Pete Alonso .254 .347 .551 139 .297 .281 6.9 1 4.1 Justin Morneau
Jeff McNeil .293 .355 .480 125 .187 .311 6.5 2 4.0 Carney Lansford
Michael Conforto .256 .361 .492 130 .236 .300 6.4 2 3.8 Austin Kearns
Amed Rosario .274 .313 .421 98 .147 .322 4.9 -3 2.3 Garry Templeton
Brandon Nimmo .237 .365 .420 114 .183 .314 5.4 -4 2.0 Ron Roenicke
Wilson Ramos .273 .328 .418 102 .145 .299 5.1 -6 1.6 Eddie Taubensee
Todd Frazier .227 .312 .408 94 .180 .260 4.3 0 1.4 Clete Boyer
Jed Lowrie .243 .318 .387 91 .144 .285 4.4 -1 1.4 Todd Zeile
J.D. Davis .265 .324 .462 111 .197 .320 5.5 -6 1.3 Mark Quinn
Rene Rivera .215 .275 .384 77 .168 .275 3.6 6 1.1 Terry Kennedy
Yoenis Cespedes .257 .322 .483 115 .226 .295 5.7 1 1.1 Jim Rice
Robinson Cano .260 .316 .405 95 .145 .291 4.7 -1 1.0 Cal Ripken
Joe Panik .255 .323 .363 87 .108 .272 4.3 -1 1.0 Alex Cora
Jake Marisnick .225 .282 .407 85 .182 .288 4.1 4 1.0 Brad Snyder
Luis Guillorme .244 .319 .328 78 .084 .287 3.7 2 0.8 Scott Campbell
Dominic Smith .253 .310 .413 95 .160 .307 4.6 -2 0.7 Mark Quinn
Max Moroff .192 .310 .336 77 .144 .269 3.5 -1 0.6 Lauro Felix
Juan Lagares .227 .284 .336 68 .109 .291 3.4 6 0.5 Tony Scott
Andres Gimenez .218 .273 .341 66 .123 .283 3.0 4 0.4 Juan Uribe
Jarrett Parker .203 .299 .385 85 .182 .288 3.8 0 0.2 Alan Zinter
David Rodriguez .201 .255 .312 54 .111 .268 2.7 6 0.2 Jon Aceves
Austin Bossart .188 .259 .288 49 .100 .248 2.5 5 0.2 Matt Garrick
Ruben Tejada .230 .289 .326 68 .096 .275 3.2 3 0.2 Mike Tyson
Danny Espinosa .192 .264 .314 57 .123 .259 2.8 5 0.1 Rabbit Warstler
Ali Sanchez .218 .265 .305 55 .086 .263 2.7 5 0.1 Tom Wieghaus
Tomas Nido .218 .252 .345 61 .126 .264 3.0 1 0.0 Jeff Winchester
Patrick Mazeika .216 .286 .344 71 .128 .256 3.4 -7 -0.1 Dave Van Gorder
Carlos Gomez .207 .281 .350 71 .143 .269 3.4 -3 -0.2 Dann Howitt
Gavin Cecchini .232 .287 .331 68 .098 .283 3.3 -2 -0.3 Javier Fierro
Aaron Altherr .203 .289 .359 76 .157 .267 3.5 -1 -0.3 Nate Murphy
Rymer Liriano .194 .279 .340 68 .145 .288 3.1 2 -0.3 Jed Hansen
Will Toffey .186 .290 .289 59 .103 .271 2.7 0 -0.4 Ronald Bourquin
Arismendy Alcantara .219 .276 .386 78 .167 .289 3.9 -3 -0.4 Kenny Kelly
Barrett Barnes .188 .279 .302 59 .114 .273 2.7 4 -0.5 Alberto Concepcion
Quinn Brodey .200 .256 .317 55 .117 .281 2.8 4 -0.5 Justin Justice
Braxton Lee .221 .284 .286 57 .066 .297 2.7 2 -0.6 Vernon Thomas
Luis Carpio .208 .269 .315 59 .108 .253 2.4 3 -0.6 Vicente Garcia
Sam Haggerty .192 .283 .293 58 .101 .286 2.9 -3 -0.6 Juan Bell
Rajai Davis .214 .257 .305 53 .091 .271 2.8 0 -0.6 Lou Brock
Jeremy Vasquez .225 .296 .323 69 .098 .282 3.2 3 -0.6 Andy Barkett
Austin Jackson .238 .298 .335 73 .097 .333 3.4 -7 -0.7 Steve Henderson
Carlos Cortes .217 .279 .333 66 .116 .259 3.1 -4 -0.7 Javier Colina
Travis Taijeron .186 .284 .365 76 .179 .295 3.4 -4 -0.7 Alan Zinter
Michael Paez .201 .266 .302 55 .101 .253 2.5 -1 -1.0 Ryan Stegall
Gregor Blanco .213 .286 .321 65 .108 .279 3.2 -6 -1.1 Michael Tucker
Wagner Lagrange .217 .264 .315 57 .098 .273 2.8 0 -1.2 Roberto Alvarez
Edgardo Fermin .181 .225 .297 41 .116 .262 2.1 2 -1.3 Preston Mattingly
David Thompson .205 .261 .320 58 .115 .266 2.9 2 -1.3 Edward Lowery
Blake Tiberi .201 .274 .275 51 .073 .269 2.6 -6 -1.6 Ryan Stegall
Tim Tebow .162 .220 .241 26 .079 .280 1.6 -9 -3.0 Frank Charles

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jacob deGrom R 32 12 6 2.88 29 29 184.3 150 59 21 42 223
Noah Syndergaard R 27 11 7 3.33 31 30 186.7 174 69 19 45 197
Marcus Stroman R 29 11 9 3.72 29 29 169.3 163 70 17 53 144
Steven Matz L 29 9 9 4.11 28 27 140.0 137 64 20 48 136
Rick Porcello R 31 12 12 4.29 29 29 167.7 169 80 28 41 152
David Peterson L 24 6 5 4.04 25 25 122.7 119 55 12 45 106
Edwin Diaz R 26 5 3 2.98 69 0 66.3 47 22 9 22 105
Seth Lugo R 30 6 3 3.15 60 0 74.3 60 26 9 18 88
Michael Wacha R 28 6 7 4.42 25 22 118.0 119 58 17 47 106
Walker Lockett R 26 6 7 4.55 24 20 114.7 123 58 17 27 83
Chris Flexen R 25 6 6 4.41 31 16 96.0 95 47 15 35 94
Stephen Gonsalves L 25 7 8 4.57 24 21 104.3 97 53 12 59 100
Ervin Santana R 37 6 7 4.64 19 19 114.3 111 59 19 34 89
Drew Gagnon R 30 6 7 4.64 30 16 110.7 113 57 17 36 96
Jeurys Familia R 30 4 3 3.66 67 0 64.0 56 26 4 36 68
Justin Wilson L 32 4 3 3.50 54 0 46.3 37 18 5 24 59
Daniel Zamora L 27 2 2 3.57 47 0 45.3 39 18 5 18 52
Brad Brach R 34 4 4 3.74 56 0 55.3 48 23 5 26 59
Franklyn Kilome R 25 4 5 4.81 19 19 91.7 92 49 9 55 70
Joe Cavallaro R 24 6 7 4.69 31 13 94.0 93 49 11 52 80
Chris Mazza R 30 4 5 4.80 25 16 101.3 109 54 15 35 74
Tylor Megill R 24 6 7 4.64 22 11 66.0 61 34 10 36 75
Luis Avilan L 30 3 2 3.80 56 0 42.7 39 18 4 18 44
Robert Gsellman R 26 3 3 4.02 62 0 71.7 69 32 8 26 65
Marcel Renteria R 25 3 3 4.41 33 4 65.3 63 32 6 36 57
Donnie Hart L 29 3 3 3.98 53 0 54.3 55 24 5 18 38
Yeizo Campos R 24 3 3 4.50 26 4 56.0 56 28 8 20 49
Corey Taylor R 27 3 3 4.20 34 1 49.3 50 23 5 16 36
Corey Oswalt R 26 6 8 5.03 22 20 102.0 107 57 19 33 88
Mickey Jannis R 32 6 8 5.10 21 20 118.3 129 67 17 46 78
Adonis Uceta R 26 4 4 4.44 35 2 52.7 51 26 6 26 48
Austin McGeorge R 25 2 2 4.59 26 3 49.0 50 25 7 21 42
Thomas Szapucki L 24 2 2 5.07 20 17 55.0 53 31 9 33 54
Brooks Pounders R 29 3 3 4.50 43 2 58.0 57 29 10 22 61
Tim Peterson R 29 3 4 4.34 48 0 58.0 56 28 10 18 58
Paul Sewald R 30 4 4 4.36 56 0 66.0 64 32 11 20 69
Louis Coleman R 34 2 2 4.43 41 0 40.7 37 20 5 23 39
Jacob Rhame R 27 3 3 4.41 44 0 49.0 46 24 9 19 55
Chasen Shreve L 29 3 3 4.39 54 0 55.3 48 27 9 28 67
Zach Lee R 28 6 8 5.19 23 21 118.0 133 68 20 37 81
Drew Smith R 26 3 3 4.43 37 0 44.7 44 22 5 20 37
Luc Rennie R 26 6 9 5.22 23 22 110.3 124 64 17 46 70
Sean Burnett L 37 1 1 5.01 24 0 23.3 25 13 3 10 17
AJ Ramos R 33 2 2 4.81 37 0 33.7 30 18 5 22 38
Ryley Gilliam R 23 2 3 4.82 29 0 37.3 32 20 6 25 49
Tommy Wilson R 24 6 8 5.38 21 20 100.3 109 60 18 40 77
Harol Gonzalez R 25 7 9 5.89 24 23 122.3 145 80 24 46 85
Tony Dibrell R 24 7 11 5.34 25 23 116.3 118 69 17 76 99
Joe Zanghi R 25 2 3 4.80 38 1 60.0 60 32 7 35 48
Jake Simon L 23 1 1 5.24 24 3 44.7 44 26 6 32 42
Stephen Villines R 24 2 2 4.69 45 0 63.3 62 33 10 27 59
Ryder Ryan R 25 2 3 5.04 32 1 44.7 44 25 6 27 41
Pedro Payano R 25 5 8 5.40 25 22 108.3 112 65 17 63 89
Tyler Bashlor R 27 3 4 4.85 54 0 55.7 51 30 8 33 57
Matt Blackham R 27 4 5 4.93 40 0 49.3 43 27 7 35 59
Nick Rumbelow R 28 2 2 5.25 27 0 36.0 37 21 6 16 31
Darwin Ramos R 24 3 4 4.98 42 1 65.0 66 36 9 35 53
Stephen Nogosek R 25 2 3 5.37 43 0 52.0 51 31 9 34 53
Christian James R 22 5 8 5.74 23 20 102.0 119 65 15 54 58

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Jacob deGrom 10.9 2.1 1.0 5.7% 30.2% .288 140 72 2.93 4.7 Greg Maddux
Noah Syndergaard 9.5 2.2 0.9 5.8% 25.5% .306 121 83 3.12 3.8 Rick Reuschel
Marcus Stroman 7.7 2.8 0.9 7.4% 20.1% .293 108 92 3.72 2.7 Willard Nixon
Steven Matz 8.7 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.6% .299 98 102 4.12 1.6 Scott Karl
Rick Porcello 8.2 2.2 1.5 5.8% 21.5% .294 94 107 4.27 1.6 Ron Reed
David Peterson 7.8 3.3 0.9 8.5% 20.0% .297 100 100 3.82 1.5 Jim O’Toole
Edwin Diaz 14.2 3.0 1.2 8.2% 39.0% .295 135 74 2.77 1.2 Jose Valverde
Seth Lugo 10.7 2.2 1.1 6.0% 29.4% .282 128 78 3.11 1.1 Rick Camp
Michael Wacha 8.1 3.6 1.3 9.1% 20.6% .298 91 110 4.45 0.9 Jim Hannan
Walker Lockett 6.5 2.1 1.3 5.5% 16.9% .296 88 113 4.37 0.7 Lary Sorensen
Chris Flexen 8.8 3.3 1.4 8.4% 22.6% .300 91 109 4.35 0.7 Dan Smith
Stephen Gonsalves 8.6 5.1 1.0 12.6% 21.4% .292 88 114 4.45 0.7 Ryan Brewer
Ervin Santana 7.0 2.7 1.5 7.0% 18.4% .273 87 115 4.68 0.6 Jim Perry
Drew Gagnon 7.8 2.9 1.4 7.5% 20.0% .296 87 115 4.42 0.5 John Doherty
Jeurys Familia 9.6 5.1 0.6 12.8% 24.1% .302 110 91 3.56 0.5 Sean Green
Justin Wilson 11.5 4.7 1.0 12.1% 29.8% .294 115 87 3.59 0.5 Marshall Bridges
Daniel Zamora 10.3 3.6 1.0 9.3% 26.9% .296 113 89 3.51 0.4 Shane Rawley
Brad Brach 9.6 4.2 0.8 11.0% 25.0% .295 108 93 3.63 0.4 Ted Abernathy
Franklyn Kilome 6.9 5.4 0.9 13.1% 16.7% .295 84 120 4.73 0.4 Rick Berg
Joe Cavallaro 7.7 5.0 1.1 12.2% 18.8% .296 86 117 4.66 0.3 Walt Masterson
Chris Mazza 6.6 3.1 1.3 7.8% 16.6% .297 84 119 4.68 0.3 Ownie Carroll
Tylor Megill 10.2 4.9 1.4 12.2% 25.4% .300 87 115 4.51 0.3 Mike Lumley
Luis Avilan 9.3 3.8 0.8 9.8% 23.9% .302 106 94 3.60 0.2 Juan Agosto
Robert Gsellman 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.4% 21.0% .296 100 100 3.91 0.2 Adrian Devine
Marcel Renteria 7.9 5.0 0.8 12.2% 19.4% .298 91 110 4.28 0.2 Walt Masterson
Donnie Hart 6.3 3.0 0.8 7.7% 16.2% .292 101 99 3.97 0.2 Leo Kiely
Yeizo Campos 7.9 3.2 1.3 8.2% 20.2% .294 89 112 4.36 0.2 Jon George
Corey Taylor 6.6 2.9 0.9 7.5% 17.0% .294 96 104 4.01 0.1 Casey Cox
Corey Oswalt 7.8 2.9 1.7 7.4% 19.8% .294 80 125 4.85 0.1 Bobby Keppel
Mickey Jannis 5.9 3.5 1.3 8.7% 14.8% .295 79 127 4.90 0.1 Charlie Robertson
Adonis Uceta 8.2 4.4 1.0 11.1% 20.5% .298 91 110 4.32 0.0 Casey Daigle
Austin McGeorge 7.7 3.9 1.3 9.7% 19.4% .299 88 114 4.61 0.0 Bob Miller
Thomas Szapucki 8.8 5.4 1.5 13.2% 21.6% .291 79 126 5.14 0.0 Todd James
Brooks Pounders 9.5 3.4 1.6 8.7% 24.2% .301 89 112 4.46 0.0 Marc Valdes
Tim Peterson 9.0 2.8 1.6 7.3% 23.5% .291 93 108 4.35 0.0 Brian Schmack
Paul Sewald 9.4 2.7 1.5 7.1% 24.6% .298 92 108 4.16 -0.1 Jay Tessmer
Louis Coleman 8.6 5.1 1.1 12.6% 21.4% .286 91 110 4.56 -0.1 Turk Lown
Jacob Rhame 10.1 3.5 1.7 9.0% 26.1% .294 91 110 4.49 -0.1 Mark Brown
Chasen Shreve 10.9 4.6 1.5 11.6% 27.8% .289 92 109 4.39 -0.1 Scott Wiegandt
Zach Lee 6.2 2.8 1.5 7.1% 15.5% .300 78 129 4.95 -0.1 Pat Ahearne
Drew Smith 7.5 4.0 1.0 10.1% 18.7% .293 91 110 4.32 -0.1 Newt Kimball
Luc Rennie 5.7 3.8 1.4 9.2% 14.1% .298 77 130 5.16 -0.1 Jake Joseph
Sean Burnett 6.6 3.9 1.2 9.6% 16.3% .301 80 125 4.68 -0.2 Darold Knowles
AJ Ramos 10.2 5.9 1.3 14.5% 25.0% .291 84 120 4.81 -0.2 Moe Burtschy
Ryley Gilliam 11.8 6.0 1.4 14.7% 28.8% .299 83 120 4.65 -0.2 Jeff Smith
Tommy Wilson 6.9 3.6 1.6 8.9% 17.2% .296 75 134 5.17 -0.3 Preston Larrison
Harol Gonzalez 6.3 3.4 1.8 8.3% 15.3% .308 76 132 5.47 -0.3 Nate Cornejo
Tony Dibrell 7.7 5.9 1.3 14.0% 18.3% .294 75 133 5.34 -0.3 Rick Berg
Joe Zanghi 7.2 5.3 1.1 12.8% 17.5% .293 84 119 4.85 -0.3 Lloyd Allen
Jake Simon 8.5 6.4 1.2 15.2% 20.0% .299 77 130 5.19 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Stephen Villines 8.4 3.8 1.4 9.7% 21.1% .291 86 116 4.65 -0.3 Dan Reichert
Ryder Ryan 8.3 5.4 1.2 13.2% 20.0% .297 80 125 4.90 -0.3 Cuddles Marshall
Pedro Payano 7.4 5.2 1.4 12.7% 17.9% .294 75 134 5.32 -0.3 Edwin Morel
Tyler Bashlor 9.2 5.3 1.3 13.2% 22.8% .289 83 120 4.78 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Matt Blackham 10.8 6.4 1.3 15.5% 26.1% .295 82 122 4.76 -0.4 Terry Bross
Nick Rumbelow 7.8 4.0 1.5 10.0% 19.4% .295 77 130 4.96 -0.4 Tom Dukes
Darwin Ramos 7.3 4.8 1.2 11.9% 18.0% .294 81 124 4.96 -0.5 Lloyd Allen
Stephen Nogosek 9.2 5.9 1.6 14.2% 22.1% .298 75 133 5.35 -0.7 Rick Greene
Christian James 5.1 4.8 1.3 11.3% 12.2% .302 70 142 5.54 -0.7 Jake Joseph

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.


Which Types of Teams Are Signing Free Agents?

Here’s a narrative you’ve probably heard this offseason: free agency is back because non-playoff teams are trying to make a splash. On its face, it makes a lot of sense; the Angels, White Sox, Rangers, Reds, and Diamondbacks have all made meaningful additions to their rosters this year. Star players are headed to non-playoff teams, hoping to tip the scales of 2020 in their favor.

And yet, that narrative leaves out some inconvenient truths. Of the top three free agents this offseason in our Top 50, two signed with playoff teams. Sixteen free agents who were worth 2 or more WAR last year have signed so far; of those 16, 10 are headed to teams who played in October this year.

Only last year, all three of the top free agents (Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Patrick Corbin) signed with teams who hadn’t made the playoffs the previous year. Is the 2019-2020 offseason truly the year of non-playoff teams getting fancy, or are we merely falling victim to narrative? Read the rest of this entry »


Top 21 Prospects: Washington Nationals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the world champion Washington Nationals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Nationals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Carter Kieboom 22.3 MLB SS 2020 60
2 Luis Garcia 19.6 AA 2B 2021 50
3 Jackson Rutledge 20.7 A RHP 2022 45
4 Wil Crowe 25.3 AAA RHP 2020 45
5 Mason Denaburg 20.4 R RHP 2023 45
6 Andry Lara 17.0 R RHP 2025 40+
7 Eddy Yean 18.5 A- RHP 2022 40+
8 Matt Cronin 22.2 A LHP 2022 40+
9 Tim Cate 22.2 A+ LHP 2021 40
10 Seth Romero 23.7 A LHP 2021 40
11 Drew Mendoza 22.2 A 1B 2023 40
12 Yasel Antuna 20.1 A 3B 2021 40
13 Jeremy De La Rosa 17.9 R RF 2024 40
14 Israel Pineda 19.7 A C 2022 40
15 Joan Adon 21.4 A RHP 2022 40
16 Roismar Quintana 16.9 R RF 2023 35+
17 Jackson Cluff 23.0 A SS 2022 35+
18 Raudy Read 26.1 MLB C 2020 35+
19 James Bourque 26.4 MLB RHP 2020 35+
20 Tyler Dyson 22.0 A- RHP 2023 35+
21 Reid Schaller 22.7 A RHP 2021 35+
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60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Walton HS (GA) (WSN)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 55/60 45/55 40/40 40/45 60/60

If you’ve enjoyed watching Keston Hiura hit for the last year or so, you’ll enjoy Kieboom, whose hands work similarly in the box. The efficient loop they create as they accelerate through the hitting zone enables Kieboom to hook and lift stuff on the inner half, including breaking balls, and he’s especially adept at driving stuff away from him out to right. This is a special hitting talent who has performed up through Triple-A as a college-aged shortstop, and Anthony Rendon‘s departure opens the door for at-bats right away.

We don’t really like Kieboom at shortstop. He’s a little heavy-footed and his hands are below average. He’s arguably better-suited for second or third base, but one could argue he’s at least as good as Trea Turner is there right now (Kieboom has worse range but can make more throws), so the short- and long-term fit here may be different. Regardless of the defensive home, Kieboom projects as a middle of the order bat with All-Star talent.

50 FV Prospects

2. Luis Garcia, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 50/55 30/45 40/40 45/50 55/55

Garcia didn’t have a great statistical 2019, but he was a teenager at Double-A so we’re not weighing that heavily. We care most about Garcia’s ability to hit, and that remains strong. His swing and feel for contact are both very similar to Juan Soto‘s, though of course Garcia lacks that kind of raw thump or plate discipline. Garcia’s a proactive swinger but so far his advanced feel for the barrel has allowed it to work. Most of his extra-base damage is going to come via doubles slashed down the left field line and to the opposite field gap, but there’s a 20 home run ceiling here if he learns to attack the right pitches.

A little thicker and slower than most shortstops, Garcia’s hands and actions are good and he’s probably a better fit at second base. We have him projected as an average everyday player there.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (WSN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 8″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/65 50/55 40/50 35/45 95-98 / 101

After an up-and-down freshman year at Arkansas, Rutledge transferred to Houston-area junior college powerhouse San Jacinto and immediately looked like a first-round pick, even before the season started. He had trouble getting on the mound in Fayetteville in part due to his command, which still isn’t great, but he has more than enough feel to throw his high-octane stuff over the plate and most lower level hitters can’t handle it. Rutledge is a physical monster at 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds, and has an arm swing familiar to those who saw Lucas Giolito‘s arm action adjustment, typically en vogue with the weighted ball community.

Rutledge has some of the best stuff on Earth, working 96–100 in most outings and mixing in a 65- or 70-grade slider with a curveball a notch below that. His changeup flashes average but is clearly a fourth option, and his command flashes average at times, but should always be somewhat of an issue given his size. Refining the command to be good enough to let his stuff work over long outings is the main development issue here, but it’s worth noting that some clubs were scared off of Rutledge’s medical in the draft, which most notably included surgery on both hips. This could go down the “no one can throw that hard, be that big, and be a healthy 200-inning starter” road, and see Rutledge become a potential closer, or the “how did anyone pass on this offensive lineman with Syndergaard’s stuff” path, and get immediate whoopsies from the industry, much like Nate Pearson has so far. Regardless, he’ll be fun to watch.

4. Wil Crowe, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from South Carolina (WSN)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/50 50/55 55/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

There are some long-term health questions with Crowe — his market was diluted by knee and elbow concerns coming out of high school, he’s a bigger-bodied guy, and he blew out about halfway through his sophomore year at South Carolina — but he’s ready for a big league rotation right now. Crowe has above-average stuff, his fastball and pair of breaking balls are all capable of missing bats, and we’ve seen good changeups from him, too. He has imprecise control of everything, and instead just tries to bully hitters with a pretty even mix of the repertoire in competitive locations. He resembles Tanner Roark in many ways and projects to be a starter of similar quality, probably beginning at some point next year.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Merritt Island HS (FL) (WSN)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 60/60 50/55 40/50 92-95 / 98

Denaburg had a loud spring as a high school senior, when he went pitch-for-pitch with Carter Stewart in two showdowns and both became first-round picks. Each has had his troubles since then. Denaburg’s pro debut didn’t happen after signing last summer, as the biceps tendonitis that dinged his draft stock flared up again after signing. In 2019, it looked like he would get to Low-A at some point, but his velocity ticked down and the Nationals held him back in extended ball. Once he built back up (92-94, touching 95 mph) he was set to go to short-season and then Low-A to finish the year. But then he felt something in his shoulder, which led to him being shut down again and never leaving Florida.

At his best, Denaburg would sit 93-95, hit 98 mph, mix in a consistently 60- or 65-grade curveball and an emerging 55-grade changeup with the size and athleticism scouts can project near the front of a rotation. After two years of inconsistent health, expectations are lower, but between Denaburg, Rutledge, and Romero, there is some pretty goofy stuff bouncing around this system; it’ll be exciting if one of them puts it together fully in 2020.

40+ FV Prospects

6. Andry Lara, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Venezuela (WSN)
Age 17.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+

Lara is a bigger, mature-framed pitcher with present velocity. He already sits 92-94, so it’s less of a problem that he lacks traditional physical projection. However, it’s also feasible that Lara becomes more fluid and athletic as he matures, so maybe he’ll back into more velocity that way. Many other traits typical of top high school pitchers — arm action, glove side fastball/slider command, and the slider quality — are also promising here, just without obvious physical projection.

7. Eddy Yean, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 45/55 40/50 91-94 / 96

Yean has stuff typical of most late first or early second round high school arms. He has a fairly projectable frame, his heater reaches the mid-90s, there’s precocious changeup and slider feel, and Yean goes right at hitters. He was targeted by sellers at the deadline and has mid-rotation upside.

8. Matt Cronin, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from Arkansas (WSN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 197 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 55/60 40/45 40/45 93-95 / 96

Cronin has Greg Holland’s build (scaled up a little bit) and arm slot, creating big time carry on his heater, which touches 97. He also has a power, overhand curveball that’s already consistently plus. While at Arkansas, one of Cronin’s teammates would smack him across the face before he entered games. We don’t know if that tradition has continued in pro ball, but as long as he throws strikes and the stuff stays the same, Cronin is a potential high-leverage reliever.

40 FV Prospects

9. Tim Cate, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Connecticut (WSN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 60/60 40/45 45/50 87-91 / 93

Cate has long been compared to Tim Collins as a smallish power lefty with mid-90s heat in short stints and a knockout breaking ball. Cate was first seen by most scouts in relief for two summers for College Team USA but was always a starter for UConn. His 92-95 mph heater in relief was more 88-92 mph in the rotation and he had forearm tightness early in his draft spring, along with a Tommy John surgery in high school. We mention that amateur background because it’s still the conversation around Cate. The Nats hope he’s still a league-average starter and think some added weight may increase his stamina. But plenty of evaluators just want to see Cate in the role where he’s stood out most (and arguably the role where his arm injuries suggest he belongs), working an inning or two at a time in relief.

10. Seth Romero, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Houston (WSN)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 45/55 40/50 91-93 / 96

The beginning of any story with Romero starts with his background, which includes a litany of off-field issues that pushed a top-10 overall talent to the end of the first round and, most recently, Tommy John surgery. Nationals officials are cautiously optimistic in their accounts of how Romero has been lately, saying his on- and off-field behavior is improving and his physical condition (not always the best) is in a good spot. He returned from surgery to pitch in the instructional league and sat 93-95 mph, throwing strikes. His changeup had moved ahead of his slider just before he blew out and sliders often are the last pitch to come back after surgery, so a fastball-changeup combo will be the main weapons for Romero as he returns on a pitch and innings count.

Due to the innings limitation as he builds back up, there’s a shot that Romero could be fast-tracked in the bullpen if he stays healthy, out of trouble, and in line with his considerable talent. There are some similarities between Romero and Red Sox left-hander Jay Groome: While they’ve both been dogged by makeup issues and TJ surgery, everything seems to be trending the right direction now. Both are 40 FVs at the moment but could be 50s by the end of the year if everything comes together.

11. Drew Mendoza, 1B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2019 from Florida State (WSN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 40/55 45/40 40/50 55/55

Mendoza had some No. 1 overall pick buzz early in his high school senior spring, but ultimately faded a bit down the stretch and his big price tag (plus Scott Boras) led to him enrolling at Florida State, where those concerns played out for three years. Mendoza has massive raw power and a borderline passive late-count approach, which leads to a healthy heaping of true three outcomes. Along with the patient approach, scouts either complain or simply point out Mendoza’s on-field demeanor, which runs from “low blood pressure” to “disinterested.” He looked less like a third baseman over time at Florida State, and the Nationals plan to play Mendoza at first base most of the time going forward. There’s still some projection left: Mendoza could have 70 raw power with a high on-base percentage when he gets to the big leagues, but the margin for error is low and could lead to a platoon role.

12. Yasel Antuna, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 45/55 20/50 55/50 40/50 55/55

Tommy John and some nagging lower body issues limited Antuna to three GCL games and instructs in the DR. He looked a little thicker during instructs, and it’s more likely that he ends up at third base now, but the rest of the profile is the same: He’s still a switch-hitting middle infielder with a pretty, low-ball swing and a frame that might yield considerable raw power. He’s age-appropriate for the Penn League (and starting him in Extended seems smart) but he might skip ahead to full-season ball next spring.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 20/55 40/30 35/45 50/50

De La Rosa popped up quickly after signing for $300,000 last summer (normally below our radar on signing day) and standing out in stateside instructs. He had a solid pro debut this summer in the GCL as a 17-year-old, and the tools are still present as well: solid average speed, an improved arm that shows average, a chance to play in center field, and average raw power that could improve in the coming years. For those wondering who the next elite international position player prospect will be in this system, he and Roimar Quintana are the new young bats to watch.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (WSN)
Age 19.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 20/40 30/20 40/45 55/55

A physical young catcher with some pull power, Pineda has been pushed through the minors quickly so far. He went straight to the GCL at age 17, then to a Penn League packed with 21-year-olds at age 18, then to full-season ball in 2019, all for someone who won’t turn 20 until April. He took an offensive dip at least in part because he was playing through a broken finger all year. We still think he’s a bat-first backup, but he has a puncher’s chance to be a regular.

15. Joan Adon, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/50 50/55 35/40 92-96 / 98

Washington moved Adon into the rotation after he had spent his first two pro seasons in the bullpen, and his velocity dipped a bit during the second half of the year. He has a graceful delivery that he struggles to repeat, which impacts his breaking ball quality and command enough for us to project him in relief. In the bullpen he might sit 94-plus with serious movement, which, even with relatively tepid offspeed projection, puts him in a valuable relief role.

35+ FV Prospects

16. Roismar Quintana, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Venezuela (WSN)
Age 16.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 20/50 55/50 45/55 50/50

Quintana signed for $820,000 in the Nats’ 2019 July 2nd class as one of three high-dollar signings, behind Lara and left-hander Pablo Aldonis. Quintana made a solid first impression domestically in the instructional league. He’s an average runner with an average arm and above average raw power. He has a well-developed 6-foot, 205 pound frame that reminds some of Marcell Ozuna or a number of Cuban outfielders, but Washington thinks Quintana can play center field for awhile, maybe even long enough to be an everyday player there in the big leagues. With no organized games to go off of, we’re projecting a lot on the bat, but his swing path is direct, there’s raw strength, and he’s already showing opposite field BP power.

17. Jackson Cluff, SS
Drafted: 6th Round, 2019 from BYU (WSN)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55

Many BYU prospects have an uphill battle to climb against draft models because their Mormon mission takes them away from baseball for a year, and makes them much older than their peers when they’re finally draft eligible. We weren’t really on Cluff pre-draft, but he performed during the summer and his eclectic collection of tools, feel to hit, lefty stick, and the likelihood that he stays on the dirt have him looking like a high-floor bench infielder already, and he’s trending up.

18. Raudy Read, C
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 26.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 45/50 20/20 40/45 45/45

The brawny Read has a long track record of hitting — he’s hit .270 with some pop over the course of several upper-minors seasons — mired somewhat by a 2018 PED suspension. He struggles with righty breaking balls away from him but mashes lefties. His receiving has improved enough that he can catch pitchers who don’t live in the dirt, which makes him a potential third catcher/26th man type who clubs lefties off the bench and starts at first base once in a while.

19. James Bourque, RHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2014 from Michigan (WSN)
Age 26.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
65/65 55/55 40/40 94-97 / 99

Bourque and his beat-walking cop mustache ascended through the minor league ranks after he moved to the bullpen and shelved his changeup back in 2018. The Nationals forced him to work only with his fastball during 2018 instructs, and liked enough of what they saw that they put him on the 40-man. He’s a stiff, upright, arm strength relief prospect.

20. Tyler Dyson, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2019 from Florida (WSN)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Dyson’s career has been a rollercoaster: lower-profile Gator recruit, breakout freshman, pegged as a potential 1-1 before his sophomore year, then two years and a Cape summer of inconsistent stuff, command, and performance without a major injury. His velo trended back up into the mid-90’s before the draft and the Nationals popped him in the fifth round; he then had a solid pro debut. He’s a sleeper in that he’s showed Top 100 ability — which makes some who see him think there’s a breakout coming — but it’s appeared inconsistently enough that we think he’ll likely wind up in middle relief.

21. Reid Schaller, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Vanderbilt (WSN)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 40/45 45/50 91-94 / 96

Schaller would have been a draft-eligible sophomore at Vanderbilt, but he lost his true freshman season to Tommy John, so he was a rare draft-eligible redshirt freshman instead. Pitching out of the bullpen in college, Schaller was 94-97. He’s been more 91-94 as a starter in pro ball, but we have him projected as a two-pitch reliever and think the heater will have an extra gear in single-inning outings.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Younger Potential Helium Types
Pablo Aldonis, LHP
Viandel Pena, 2B
Junior Martina, SS
Yoander Rivero, SS
Daniel Marte, CF
Todd Peterson, RHP
Justin Connell, RF
Leandro Miliani, RF
Mirton Blanco, RHP

We’ll try to plow through these pretty quickly as this system has more of this tier of prospect than most clubs. Aldonis turns 18 in March. He’s a medium-framed, 6-foot-1, 55 athlete with a smooth delivery and advanced feel for three pitches. He’s a long-term physical projection sleeper. Pena is a stocky switch-hitter with bat-to-ball skills and he hit .360 in the GCL last year. He’s a 50 runner and infield defender who’s about 5-foot-7. It’s softer contact right now, but the barrel feel is there. Martina is a native of Curaçao and a 19th rounder out of Western Oklahoma St who crushed the GCL after the draft. He takes big hacks and could be a power-over-hit middle infield utility type. Rivero is an 18-year-old, glove-first shortstop. Peterson pitched in relief at LSU and would sit 92-94 with a 55 cutter/slider and curveball at times. Washington tried him in a rotation last summer. Connell and Miliani are bat-to-ball 1B/LF sorts; they have promising contact skills but probably need to end up with premium hit tools to profile. Blanco is a 17-year-old who has been up to 98 but he’s very wild.

Major League Ready Depth
Kyle Finnegan, RHP
Ben Braymer, LHP
Yadiel Hernandez, 1B/OF
Jordan Mills, LHP
Steven Fuentes, RHP
Andrew Lee, RHP
Nick Raquet, LHP
Tres Barrera, C
Nick Banks, OF
Jacob Condra-Bogan, RHP

Finnegan was a high-priority minor league free agent whose stuff was up late in the year, and has been strong in the Dominican Winter League. He’s in the mid-90s with an average slider and split. Braymer is also on the 40-man and looks like a lefty pitchability swingman with a 55 breaking ball. Hernandez is a weird one. He signed out of Mexico at age 29 and is now 32, but he rakes (it’s hit over power due to lack of launch, but the contact is very hard) and because of when he signed, he acts as upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot this year, so he has sneaky trade value. Jordan Mills sits upper-80s with sink, his changeup is plus, and his slider above average. Fuentes has reached Double-A and has a tailing low-90s fastball and above average changeup. Lee and Raquet are overhand four-seam, curveball relief types. Barrera is on the 40-man right now and is a well-rounded third catcher. Banks has several above average tools (speed underway, raw power, arm strength) but the bat is below. Condra-Bogan is significant because he’s the only player on this whole list who arrived by trade (he came back from Kansas City in the Brian Goodwin deal), as everyone else was drafted or signed by Washington. JCB touches 100; he’s still working on a breaking ball.

A Complete Mess of Other Guys
Jake Irvin, RHP
Fausto Segura, RHP
Jakson Reetz, C
Orlando Ribalta, RHP
J.T. Arruda, SS
Jhonatan German, LHP
Gage Canning, CF
Alex Troop, LHP
Felix Taveras, RHP

Several of these guys signed late out of Latin America, around age 21. Segura (23, NYPL) has a chuck-it-past-you fastball up to 98, German (24, Double-A) has a mid-90s sinker, and Taveras (24, GCL) has been hurt for most of the past three years but was up to 97 with 2500 rpm on the heater. Irvin was up last spring, down last summer, then up again during instructs, where he pitched in relief. He’s 6-foot-6 and sits 93-96 when things are right with an average curveball. Reetz is another athletic, late-bloomer type who makes consistent hard contact; he’s probably a depth catcher. Ribalta is a big-bodied fastball/curveball relief prospect who was up to at least 96 at Miami Dade College the summer after the draft. Arruda was a sophomore-eligible 11th rounder. He’s a lefty-bat infielder with good feel to hit. Troop is a lanky, over-the-top lefty whose fastball has carry.

System Overview

This system is not very good for very good reasons. Prospects have either been traded away (Elvis Alvarado, Jesus Luzardo, Yohanse Morel, Kelvin Gutierrez, Daniel Johnson, Taylor Hearn, Sheldon Neuse, Dane Dunning) or they’ve graduated (Juan Soto, Victor Robles), and several draft picks have been lost as compensation for free agents because the Nats have been busy winning. And so the list above includes just one player who wasn’t originally signed or drafted by Washington; they haven’t been in prospect acquisition mode for a long time.

Once Carter Kieboom graduates off the list, would you rather have this entire system or the Vanderbilt Commodores? It’s probably pretty close.


Notes on Yoshi Tsutsugo, Kwang-Hyun Kim, and the Week’s Other NPB/KBO Signees

Over the last week or so, several players who had been playing pro ball in Korea or Japan (some originally from those countries, others former big leaguers kicking back to the States) have signed contracts with major league clubs. I had notes on several of them in our Top 50 Free Agents post, but wanted to talk about them at greater length now that we know their employers and the details of their contracts.

LF Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Tampa Bay Rays
(Two years, $12 million, $2.4 million posting fee)

Tsutsugo’s deal came in a bit beneath what Kiley predicted on the Top 50 Free Agents post (Kiley had two years at $8 million per), where we ranked him No. 42 in the class, but multiple public reports have confirmed that Tsutsugo had more lucrative offers from other teams and chose to sign with Tampa Bay because of comfort with the org.

In addition to regular DH duty, Tsutsugo seems like an obvious platoon partner for Hunter Renfroe in one of the two corner outfield spots. The Rays have indicated he’ll see some time at third and first base, positions he hasn’t played regularly since 2014, and the notes I have from pro/international scouts and executives indicate he’s not athletically capable of playing there, though there’s no harm in seeing whether or not that’s true during spring training. Yandy Díaz isn’t good at the hot corner (he used to be, but he’s just too big and stiff now), but still played third situationally, so perhaps Tsutsugo can be hidden there, even if it’s for a few innings at a time. Read the rest of this entry »


The Three Batter Minimum Rule Barely Matters

The concept of one-out pitchers suggests a kind of dystopian future for baseball. Generic Matchup Righty Number One (let’s call him Adam Cimber for the sake of this sentence) comes in to get the first out of an inning. He’s replaced by Adam Kolarek to get a lefty, then Adam Ottavino to get another righty, and then, look, I’m out of Adams, but maybe Adam Wainwright was the starter?

In any case, it’s hard to imagine a more boring inning, a more surefire way to get Johnny and Jane Millennial to change the channel to Fortnite or American Gladiators or whatever it is the kids like these days. That, more or less, is the theory behind MLB’s newest rule change, a three batter minimum for relief pitchers that will go into effect for the 2020 season. The rule requires a pitcher to face three batters, or pitch to the end of the half-inning, with some exceptions for injuries.

There’s only one problem with that narrative: that all-Adam inning doesn’t exist much in the majors, even without a three batter minimum. In fact, the one-out relief specialist just isn’t much of a role in baseball anymore. I investigated the numbers to find out which teams would be most affected. To my surprise, essentially none of them were. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

Looking at the hitting projections, it’s not hard to see why the Dodgers didn’t go all-out to sign Anthony Rendon. Rendon, of course, would be an upgrade for any team, but it’s difficult to see how the Dodgers would have gotten maximum benefit. Their worst projected position is right field, manned primarily by Alex Verdugo, and with his projected WAR of 2.0 in 476 plate appearances, even he falls into the above-average category. And it’s possible that WAR slightly underrates the Dodger lineup simply because positional versatility is one of those things that we foggily know is meaningful, though exactly how meaningful we don’t quite know.

ZiPS has been keen on Cody Bellinger for a while. Indeed, this is quite an aggressive win projection for a first baseman. Bellinger’s career home run projection has gone well past 500 at this point, and ZiPS is even baking in a mildish drop in league home run totals, which we don’t know will actually happen. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 42 Prospects: Minnesota Twins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Minnesota Twins. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Editor’s Notes: Brusdar Graterol, previously ranked fifth on this list, and Luke Raley, ranked 35th, were traded to the Dodgers as part of the Kenta Maeda deal.

Catcher Jair Camargo was added to the list; he was received from Los Angeles in the same deal.

Twins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Royce Lewis 20.7 AA CF 2022 60
2 Trevor Larnach 23.0 AA RF 2021 50
3 Alex Kirilloff 22.3 AA 1B 2021 50
4 Jhoan Duran 22.1 AA RHP 2020 50
5 Jordan Balazovic 21.4 A+ RHP 2021 50
6 Ryan Jeffers 22.9 AA C 2021 45+
7 Lewis Thorpe 24.2 MLB LHP 2020 45
8 Keoni Cavaco 18.7 R 3B 2024 45
9 Gilberto Celestino 21.0 AA CF 2021 45
10 Misael Urbina 17.8 R CF 2023 40+
11 Jose Miranda 21.6 AA 3B 2021 40+
12 Wander Javier 21.1 A SS 2022 40+
13 Matt Canterino 22.2 A RHP 2022 40+
14 Matt Wallner 22.2 A RF 2022 40+
15 Cole Sands 22.6 AA RHP 2021 40
16 Edwar Colina 22.8 AAA RHP 2020 40
17 Brent Rooker 25.3 AAA 1B 2019 40
18 Blayne Enlow 20.9 A+ RHP 2022 40
19 Yunior Severino 20.4 A 2B 2023 40
20 Luis Rijo 21.4 A+ RHP 2022 40
21 Devin Smeltzer 24.4 MLB LHP 2020 40
22 Ben Rortvedt 22.4 AA C 2021 40
23 Josh Winder 23.3 A RHP 2022 40
24 Travis Blankenhorn 23.5 AA 2B 2020 40
25 Spencer Steer 22.2 A 2B 2022 40
26 Akil Baddoo 21.5 A+ CF 2021 40
27 LaMonte Wade 26.1 MLB LF 2020 40
28 Cody Stashak 25.7 MLB RHP 2020 40
29 Will Holland 21.8 R 2B 2023 40
30 Jorge Alcala 24.5 MLB RHP 2020 40
31 Emmanuel Rodriguez 16.9 R CF 2025 40
32 Edouard Julien 20.8 R LF 2023 40
33 Yennier Cano 25.9 A+ RHP 2021 40
34 Jovani Moran 22.8 AA LHP 2020 40
35 Nick Gordon 24.3 AAA SS 2020 35+
36 Willie Joe Garry Jr. 19.7 R CF 2023 35+
37 Jair Camargo 20.6 R C 2021 35+
38 Chris Vallimont 22.9 A+ RHP 2023 35+
39 Seth Gray 21.7 A 3B 2023 35+
40 Bailey Ober 24.6 AA RHP 2021 35+
41 Caleb Hamilton 25.0 AAA C 2020 35+
42 Charles Mack 20.2 R C 2023 35+
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60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from JSerra HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/65 40/60 60/50 40/45 50/50

One of the top-billed high schoolers during a superlative year for talent in Southern California, Lewis began garnering Derek Jeter comparisons while he was still an amateur. To a degree, those remain reasonable, though they’re no longer applicable across nearly as much as Lewis’ skillset as they once were. Initially, those comps came from Lewis’ penchant for on-field leadership, some elements of his swing and frame, and, less positively, his future as a defensive shortstop. The Twins took him first overall and cut a below slot deal, as Lewis was seen as one of five options in a tightly-packed top tier of talent.

Throughout his first 18 months as a pro, Lewis had statistical success while being promoted aggressively before a developmental hiccup in 2019. His overall production has slowly come down at each subsequent level, and during a 2019 season split 3-to-1 at Hi- and Double-A, he had a .290 OBP. Don’t let the robust .353/.411/.565 Arizona Fall League line (he went to pick up reps after an oblique strain during the year) and MVP award fool you — Lewis still clearly had issues. His swing is cacophonous — the big leg kick, the messy, excessive movement in his hands — and it negatively impacts Lewis’ timing. He needs to start several elements of the swing early just to catch fastballs, and he’s often late anyway. This also causes him to lunge at breaking balls, which Lewis doesn’t seem to recognize very well, and after the advanced hit tool was a huge driver of his amateur profile, Lewis now looks like a guess hitter. His mannerisms — Nomar-level batting glove tinkering, deep, heavy, deliberate breaths between pitches, constant uniform adjustment — are manic, and they seem to pull focus away from the task at hand rather than grounding him in a ritualistic way, and the game often seems too fast for him.

So why are we still so high on him? We’re betting big on Lewis’ makeup and physical talent. His BP’s were the best in the entire Fall League. He is an exceptional teammate, leader, and worker, who did more early infield work than anyone else Eric saw in the AFL, willing himself to become a viable left side infield defender even though he lacks the traditional grace and fluidity for those positions. We don’t think the swing works as currently constituted — it’s a mechanical departure from when Lewis was successful in high school — but we think it’ll get dialed in eventually because of his athleticism and work habits. Even if some of the pitch recognition stuff proves to be a long-term issue, we still think Lewis will be a versatile defender who plays several premium positions (we have him listed in center field because if we had to pick one spot where we think he’ll eventually be best, that’s it) and hits for considerable power. There may be an adjustment period similar to the one Javier Báez experienced early in his career because of the approach issues, but the star-level talent will eventually shine through.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Oregon State (MIN)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 223 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 65/65 50/60 40/40 40/45 55/55

Larnach hit several balls in excess of 110 mph during Oregon State’s opening weekend of his draft season, and he ended up slugging .652 that year while falling to the back of the first round amid concerns about his defensive ability. Larnach remains a sluggish, diffident outfielder, but he’s very likely to get to much of his titanic raw power in games thanks to the ease with which he generates the pop — Larnach doesn’t swing with violence or effort; it’s just there — and a refined approach. We think he’s a 30-plus homer, high-OBP corner outfielder.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Plum HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 60/60 45/55 30/30 45/50 60/60

Kirilloff’s numbers weren’t as nutty as they were two seasons ago — .283/.342/.413 down from .348/.392/.578 — but that’s partly because he was on the IL twice with wrist issues. His power output was way down for the first few weeks after he returned from both, which is typical of wrist injuries, but that the issue recurred is somewhat concerning on its own. Healthy Kirilloff is going to hit and hit for power. He can turn on balls most hitters are jammed by because of the way he strides open and clears his hips, but he still has the plate coverage and swing path to lift contact the other way when pitchers work away from him. A thickening build has slowed Kirilloff down, and he’s now begun seeing a lot of time at first base. This, combined with a pretty aggressive approach, makes him somewhat risky from some teams’ perspectives, who see a first baseman with below-average plate discipline, but we think he’s a safe bet to be a .340 to .360 wOBA guy even with how swing-happy he can be.

4. Jhoan Duran, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/60 50/60 45/50 95-99 / 101

Duran seemingly drew lots of trade interest while with Arizona. Loose, lean, and wielding premium stuff, his name was rumored to be on some PTBNL lists before he was ultimately traded to Minnesota as part of the Eduardo Escobar deal in 2018. During his first few pro seasons, Duran’s velocity yo-yo’d a bit; at times, he was in the upper-90s, while he was more 91-95 at others. He was also demoted from the Northwest League back to the AZL in 2017 for reasons apparently unrelated to performance. The following spring, not only was Duran’s velocity more stable — in the 93-96 range — but he was throwing strikes and had more consistent secondary stuff.

Duran continued to fill out into 2019 and his velocity kept climbing, settling in the upper-90s and cresting 100. He worked with better angle after the Twins acquired him last summer, a change that improved the playability of his breaking ball without detracting from his changeup’s movement, though that pitch has been de-emphasized based on our sources’ looks. He’s tracking like a mid-rotation starter.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from St. Martin HS (CAN) (MIN)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 55/55 40/45 45/55 91-94 / 96

After a breakout 2018, Balazovic spent most of 2019 dominating the Florida State League as a 20-year-old. Perhaps the most important takeaway was that he retained his stuff amid an innings increase, and while he hasn’t yet worked a major league starter’s regimen, he’ll be on pace to do so if he can add 20-30 frames over each of the next two years.

He throws strikes with four pitches, several of which either project to miss bats or do so right now. Chief among them is his fastball, which is tough for hitters to pick up out of Balazovic’s hand as they’re misdirected by his limbs flying all over the place during the delivery. Even with a somewhat lower arm slot, Balazovic’s heater plays at the top of the zone. He can vary the shape of his breaking balls — the slider is the out pitch, the curveball gets dropped in for strikes — and both play up against righties because of the mechanics. And while Balazovic’s glove-side slider command should be enough for him to deal with lefties eventually anyway, his change improved in 2019. He throws an unusually high number of strikes for such a young, lanky, cold-weather arm with a somewhat violent delivery, and he’s had no health or control issues thus far. He pretty firmly projects as a No. 4 starter right now.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from UNC Wilmington (MIN)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 45/55 40/40 45/50 55/55

Jeffers has answered some of the defensive questions he faced in college, when it was unclear if he’d catch or end up at first base. Eyeball evaluations of his receiving are still mixed but according to our sources (and not just ones with Minnesota), the framing metrics are pretty good. The Twins, along with a growing number of other orgs, have their catchers set up on one knee (some have their receivers ditch it with two strikes, others don’t), which seems to affect how many called strikes they steal, at least in the minors.

Jeffers spent most of his first full pro season at Hi-A Fort Myers (120 wRC+) and had a strong final month at Double-A Pensacola. He has average bat-to-balls skills, above-average thump, and the ability to hit the ball in the air consistently. The athleticism, breaking ball recognition, and, perhaps most importantly, plate coverage are all a tick below average. We’re still a tad concerned Jeffers may have to play first base sometime soon, which is the only thing keeping him from the 50 FV tier.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Australia (MIN)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/55 55/55 50/50 45/50 89-93 / 95

Thorpe is now pretty far removed from the severe injury issues that plagued him early in his pro career, and he’ll likely be in the Twins rotation all of next year. The flat-planed nature of his fastball enables the pitch to miss bats despite mediocre velocity, but it also makes Thorpe fly ball prone. Of his three secondary pitches, his curveball has the most visually pleasing movement but it’s much slower than his other pitches and might be best if used less than his sweeping slider.

He’s a high probability No. 4/5 starter for us, though there are industry folks who have him in the No. 3/4 area because of the quality of the secondaries.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Eastlake HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 18.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 55/60 25/55 60/55 40/50 55/55

A growth spurt buoyed Cavaco’s tools and draft stock, and he was last year’s most prominent pop-up high school prospect. He may have had the best frame in the entire draft but had already grown into considerable power as a senior, which he got to in games despite an awkwardly-timed stride. At times clumsy on defense, Cavaco may still be growing into his new body. He was also catching early in high school, and had to move all over the infield during his upperclass days because talented young shortstop Marcelo Mayer went to the same high school. He may end up at second or third base, or get a try in center field if his hands and actions don’t improve. He’s one of the 2019 draft’s higher risk, higher reward prospects.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 40/40 30/35 60/60 50/60 60/60

We were pretty surprised when we sourced Celestino’s exit velos and learned the ball leaves his bat at 90 mph on average, which is above the big league average. We don’t think that means Celestino is going to hit for power, or even that it means he has more raw than we thought, just that he hits the ball hard with consistency, a pervasive trait in this system.

At a compact 6-foot or so, he’s unlikely to grow into much thump. Instead, Celestino is a potential everyday player because of his bat-to-ball skills and his center field defense. Celestino was more of an instincts/feel defender as an amateur, but he’s sped up as he’s grown into his modest frame and projects as a plus glove now. His athleticism is evident not only on defense, but in the batter’s box, too, where Celestino stays well balanced during a long, slow leg kick. The lack of power projection caps his ceiling, but we like the defense and bat enough to consider Celestino a potential regular, and a low-variance sort of prospect.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 25/50 55/50 40/50 40/45

Urbina was one of the more advanced hitters in his July 2 signing class from both a bat control and physical development perspective. He was also one of the youngest. Currently an above-average runner, there’s a fair chance he ends up in left field due to a lack of top-end speed, though it might depend on how his body develops.

Urbina’s power projection is somewhat limited by his size, which may be an issue if he does eventually move to a corner. He’s an explosive rotator though, and this guy’s power doesn’t just come from size and strength, but rather a an upper body that unwinds kind of like Yuli Gurriel’s does. Urbina also has many promising bat-to-ball traits — timing, hand-eye coordination, all-fields feel — at a young age. He’s one of the high priority Florida minor league/extended spring prospects to see, and we currently have him FV’d just a shade behind the top prep outfielders in the 2020 class.

11. Jose Miranda, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (MIN)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 30/50 50/45 40/45 55/55

He didn’t post a strong 2019 statline (about .250/.300/.360 in the Florida State League) but we’re still on Miranda because of his ability to move the barrel all over the zone, and because he generates consistent doubles power despite being very short to the ball. It makes Miranda tough to beat within the strike zone. Instead, the way to deal with him is to hope he chases stuff out of the zone (and even then he often finds ways to make contact). There are some holes in the swing in the sense that Miranda can’t do damage with pitches all over the zone, but he rarely swings and misses. We’ve shaded his FV down from last year’s 45 because we now think he ends up playing more third base than second in the long run, but we still really like Miranda’s bat control and quality of contact.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 45/55 30/45 55/50 45/55 60/60

There are instances when knowing less about a prospect actually improves the industry’s view of them. There’s space to dream and fill in the gaps in the profile with optimism, as we may not know that relevant underlying issues lurk beneath the surface. Such was the case with Javier, who signed for a IFA franchise record $4 million back in 2015 and basically missed two of his four pro seasons due to quad and hamstring injuries, along with labrum surgery.

Finally (mostly) healthy in 2019, Javier went to full-season ball, struck out a ton, and hit .177. His bat-to-ball ability and pitch recognition are not great, but part of that is surely because he hasn’t seen a lot of pro pitching due to the injuries. We’re not moving off of Javier entirely — he’s just too talented. He still has a frame typical of power-hitting SS/3B types, he’s athletic enough to play either of those spots, and he already has notable raw power for his age. But in the last year we’ve gone from not knowing much about his contact/approach to knowing it’s either not good or lags way behind because of the lack of reps.

13. Matt Canterino, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Rice (MIN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 222 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 50/55 40/40 40/45 90-93 / 95

Canterino regularly showed a plus fastball/breaker combo (a big, mid-90s two-plane breaker) as a sophomore and the summer before his draft spring, but there was some effort and violence to the delivery, and thus perceived relief risk. At that point, some teams saw enough strike-throwing to project him as a starter and look past the delivery. In his draft spring, his stuff was down a bit as Canterino appeared to be dialing things down to aim for more strikes and go deeper into games. When uncorked, we expect him to bump 96 with big life, and incorporate a mix of two breaking balls rather than rely heavily on the slider and barely use his curve. If he can throw strikes with his breaking stuff, he has a chance to start and miss bats with three pitches. If he can’t, he might be a high-leverage reliever.

14. Matt Wallner, RF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Southern Mississippi (MIN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 70/70 35/60 40/35 45/50 60/60

Wallner hit for power all three years of college, even while pitching part-time as a freshman and sophomore, but an arm injury kept him off the mound in his junior year, where some clubs thought he had real pro potential. He had some of the most explosive raw thump in the 2019 draft class, drawing 70 or 80 grades from scouts, and will hit balls 10 rows into the bleachers even when he doesn’t get fully extended. He has some moderate swing-and-miss issues characteristic of hitters who have power-driven approaches, which were made more evident after Wallner signed. But he’s also willing to take a walk, so the power and OBP give him a shot to be a regular in right field.

40 FV Prospects

15. Cole Sands, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Florida State (MIN)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/55 40/45 91-94 / 96

Sands’ stuff is nasty enough that were it not for his long history of injuries, he’d be in the 40+ or 45 FV tier on this list. His fastball will creep into the mid-90s with big time tail, the kind that can run off the hip of left-handed hitters and back over the plate. He also has a wiping, two-plane breaking ball that’s consistently plus. He was on the 60-day IL in 2018 and made three IL trips in 2019, though one was for a blister and another for a calf strain, not arm stuff. A potential No. 4 starter (more likely No. 4/5), Sands turns 23 next year and should reach Double-A.

16. Edwar Colina, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 22.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 40/40 50/50 94-98 / 100

A stocky, hard-throwing starter with upper-90s heat, Colina’s fastball doesn’t play as an elite pitch despite his velocity — it has middling movement and he’s an extreme short strider who loses two ticks of perceived velo — but it’s tough to square up because of how hard it is. Similarly, Colina’s short, cuttery slider is effective because of how firm it is, and because he has excellent glove-side command of it. He also has a firm changeup that may be shelved, or at least de-emphasized since Colina moved to the bullpen late in 2019. His strike-throwing ability (there’s pretty precise slider command but bully-you in the zone fastball control) might enable him to go multiple innings, in which case you could argue he’s a 40+ FV.

17. Brent Rooker, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Mississippi State (MIN)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 65/65 50/60 40/40 40/45 35/35

Things are coming into focus a little more for Rooker, who remains one of the more interesting and prominent “pop-up senior or redshirt junior” prospects (like Kody Hoese in 2019), who the industry often struggles to contextualize. The background here is odd. As a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, Rooker hit .324/.376/.528 with 11 homers at Mississippi State, and the Twins drafted him in the 38th round. He didn’t sign, returned to school, hit .287/.496/.810, with 23 homers and 18 steals, and was drafted 35th overall. Nobody was totally sure what to make of such remarkable improvement, and Rooker lives in the dreaded right/right 1B/DH bucket for most evaluators, but he had among the best raw power and exit velos in his draft class and emphatically torched the best conference in college baseball.

Rooker has moved quickly since entering pro ball (he needed to, as he’s already 25) and played his entire second full season at Triple-A, where he mashed (.280/.398/.535), but his inability to deal with breaking balls is worrisome. We think he’s more of a platoon 1B/DH/LF type, maybe a low-end regular at one of those.

18. Blayne Enlow, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from St. Amat HS (LA) (MIN)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 45/50 50/55 40/45 91-94 / 96

Enlow has developed a pretty strong four-pitch mix in pro ball. His fastball sits in the mid-90s early in starts before settling in around 93. It’s more of a sinker/velo-centric fastball than one with bat-missing life, and the same goes for Enlow’s power, upper-80s changeup. The bat-misser in the arsenal is a cutter/slider in the upper-80s that has serious length when Enlow locates it to his glove side. He has a slower, two-planed slurve he can throw for strikes, but it isn’t an impact pitch. Right now he looks like a No. 4/5 starter, but there’s a No. 4 ceiling if the command beats our projections, which seems possible given Enlow’s age.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 35/50 50/50 40/45 50/50

We have Severino projected as a three-true-outcomes middle infielder à la Rickie Weeks, or peak Mark Bellhorn and Dan Uggla. He’s a bulky (especially for 20) switch-hitter who takes giant, uppercut rips. He missed much of 2019 due to a thumb fracture (he suffered torn ligaments, as well), so he may start 2020 back at Cedar Rapids and need to perform to be promoted. The power/middle infield combo gives him ceiling, while the strikeouts and rapidly maturing frame also make him quite risky.

20. Luis Rijo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/40 60/60 45/50 50/60 90-94 / 96

Part of Minnesota’s return from New York for Lance Lynn, Rijo is a hyper-efficient strike thrower whose curveball moves like a Wiffle ball, seemingly floating as it approaches the plate before it begins to bend and dive away from right-handed hitters. Because it’s a slower, loopy pitch, it may not miss bats against upper-level hitters, but it’s hard to square up because of how much depth it has, and Rijo locates it well.

So, too, can he spot his low-90s fastball where his catcher asks for it, working up at the letters and to both corners of the plate at will. His ceiling will likely be limited by stuff quality — though only 20, Rijo is physically mature and unlikely to grow into much more velocity — but the command makes him a high-probability backend starter and one who could move quickly.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (LAD)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/40 50/50 55/55 50/50 55/55 87-91 / 92

Mechanical funk, glove-side breaking ball command, and a viable changeup all enable Smeltzer to induce weak contact despite meager velocity. He worked in a multi-inning capacity at the big league level last year and projects to do so going forward.

22. Ben Rortvedt, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Verona HS (WI) (MIN)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 30/40 30/30 40/45 55/55

Now that he’s a solid defender (he was not in high school), Rortvedt’s ball/strike recognition and strength-driven raw power give him a chance to play a prominent big league role if the two can work together. He can hit for power on pitches up and away from him (which he takes the other way), and, when he can catch up to them, on pitches down-and-in, which he golfs out to his pull side. Right now he looks more like a backup, but Rortvedt has tweaked his swing a bit since high school and perhaps more can be done so he’s not driving so much into the ground.

23. Josh Winder, RHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2018 from Virginia Military Institute (MIN)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 45/50 40/50 45/50 91-93 / 95

Winder has some interesting rotation piece elements — a broad, square-shouldered, 6-foot-5 frame, a repeatable delivery, an arm slot that enables the fastball to compete in the zone — and the development of his secondaries will determine if he gets there or ends up in a lesser role. He was old for the Midwest League in 2019, but he was also a late Day Two pick out of a very small school, so we’re not discounting his numbers too much. He could be a four-pitch backend starter.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Pottsville HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 40/45 40/40 40/40 50/50

He’s had some injury stuff and isn’t very mobile, but Blankenhorn now has a track record of hitting up through Double-A. He makes consistent, hard contact but without a lot of lift. You want to hide this guy at second base or left field and let him mash.

25. Spencer Steer, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2019 from Oregon (MIN)
Age 22.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 50/50 20/45 50/45 45/50 50/50

Steer is a slightly stiff, hit-over-power, muscular infielder from Oregon who the Twins took in the third round last summer. He projects into the late-career Asdrúbal Cabrera role, a bat-driven, multi-positional infielder.

26. Akil Baddoo, CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Salem HS (GA) (MIN)
Age 21.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 30/45 60/60 40/50 40/40

Baddoo has some promising physical ingredients — speed, raw power — seasoned by high walk rates. He missed most of 2019 because he needed Tommy John in mid-May. He lacks deft barrel accuracy, but Baddoo has run well above-average walk rates to this point and he may be able to get to most of his power by hunting the right pitches, even if his swing’s a little grooved. He’s tracking like a power/OBP fourth outfielder or platoon guy.

Drafted: 9th Round, 2015 from Maryland (MIN)
Age 26.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 45/45 30/35 50/50 55/55 40/40

Wade intrigues as the larger half of a corner outfield platoon. He’s not exactly tooled up, but he walks a lot — more than he strikes out against right-handed pitchers, in fact — and he’ll make up for some of what he lacks in power with rangy, corner outfield defense. It’s not spectacular, but there’s a clear role here.

28. Cody Stashak, RHP
Drafted: 13th Round, 2015 from St. John’s (MIN)
Age 25.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 40/40 55/60 88-92 / 94

Stashak spent two years at Cumberland County College before heading to St. John’s, where he had one statistically middling season for the Red Storm. He got $100,00 on Day Three of the 2015 draft and reached Hi-A as a starter before two injuries forced a late-season move to the bullpen in 2017. Stashak’s fastball/breaking ball combo was very effective during that initial run out of the ‘pen, and the Twins left him there. He’s since had two dominant relief seasons, including very low walk rates for a reliever, while reaching Triple-A. The fastball plays in large part due to it’s vertical movement, and his breaking ball shape varies enough that it may be two different pitches, but for now he projects as a two-pitch reliever with a modern approach: fastballs up, breaking balls down.

29. Will Holland, 2B
Drafted: 5th Round, 2019 from Auburn (MIN)
Age 21.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 181 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 30/45 70/70 45/50 55/55

Holland is the classic toolsy college player who hasn’t even put things together yet and performed. One scout called him a “bull in a china shop” defensively because while he has the physical ability to play all three up-the-middle positions, he lacks feel and instincts. Holland had lots of trouble hitting during his draft spring due in large part to tinkering with his mechanics, but he was a fringe first rounder before that, so he was a nice buy-low lottery ticket in the fifth round.

30. Jorge Alcala, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 40/40 92-97 / 98

As had long been prophesied, Alcala began transitioning to a relief role in the middle of 2019 and ended his season with a September sip of espresso in Minnesota’s bullpen. As you might expect, the move corresponded with a small jump in velo, as Alcala was 91-96 as a starter last year, then 94-97 out of the bullpen. He has set-up man stuff — the heater and a vertically-breaking power slider — but poor pitch execution will likely limit him to middle relief.

31. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 16.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 40/50 20/40 50/55 40/50 45/50

Minnesota’s top 2019 signee is very short to the ball, has great hand-eye coordination, a swing that has lift out front, and hit in games when seen as an amateur. Rodriguez has a tweener build and speed, so the bat may need to max out as plus or better for there to be a role here, but that seems plausible based on the amateur looks.

32. Edouard Julien, LF
Drafted: 18th Round, 2019 from Auburn (MIN)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/55 35/55 40/40 40/45 40/40

It was an eventful, strange 2019 for Julien, who was coming off a very promising freshman year at Auburn during which he hit 17 dingers and slashed .278/.398/.556. He was ruled eligible as a sophomore not because of his age but because he had attended a year of secondary school in Canada before heading to college, which made him three years removed from high school. He was suddenly a young-for-the-class college bat who might have gone very high if he’d hit like he did the year before and got better at second base. He did neither. Julien’s stock fell early during the season before he got hot during a tumultuous postseason run by Auburn. The Twins drafted him on Day Three. Julien tweeted he was coming back to school, went to the Cape, where had a great two weeks, and the Twins offer rose to just shy of $500,000, inspiring him to sign. Then he had Tommy John in August.

We currently view his as a positionless, bat-first college prospect who has a chance to have enough in-game power to have some kind of big league role.

33. Yennier Cano, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (MIN)
Age 25.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 45/50 45/50 92-95 / 97

Signed just before the clock struck midnight on the 2018 July 2 period, Cano got a $750,000 bonus from the Twins, using the international bonus money acquired from the Rangers in the Zack Granite trade. In late March, Cano touched 95 while throwing for teams in Miami but he topped out at at least 97 in the past while pitching on the Cuban National Team and for Ciego de Avila. You could argue he should have been developed as a starter because of his repertoire depth and the way the pitch mix, which lacks a swing and miss offering, plays, but the Twins put him in the bullpen immediately.

It’s a sinker/slider/splitter look that generates groundballs more than it does strikeouts. He’s nearly 26 and should move quickly as a relief piece.

34. Jovani Moran, LHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2015 from Carlos Beltran Academy HS (PR) (MIN)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/45 70/70 40/40 90-93 / 94

Moran has a dominant out-pitch changeup, though the rest of his profile is pretty vanilla. His body and control backed up in 2019, but he remains a likely relief piece.

35+ FV Prospects

35. Nick Gordon, SS
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Olympia HS (FL) (MIN)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 30/40 55/55 45/50 55/55

Eyeball evaluations of Gordon don’t match his 2019 statline. He’s more of a bench/depth type now than potential low-end regular at second or shortstop.

Drafted: 9th Round, 2018 from Pascagoula HS (MS) (MIN)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 45/55 25/50 55/50 45/50 50/50

A twitchy, good-framed athlete with explosive hands, Garry’s a toolsy lower-level prospect with swing and miss volatility. He was a $225,000 sign out of high school, has a pretty exciting skillset, and performed in the Appy League until a putrid August tanked his statline for the summer. He has concerning underlying stats but is tooled-up enough to monitor closely in the Midwest League next year.

37. Jair Camargo, C
(LAD)
Age 20.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/65 30/50 20/20 45/50 55/55

Camargo is a very physical 20-year-old catcher who is currently an average receiver and going to an org that has shown an ability to improve how catchers frame. His bat head drags into the zone, which causes him to be late, but he’s so strong that he can still make impact contact the other way. His exit velos are huge for a 20-year-old: 91 mph on average with a hard hit rate of 47%, which is a 65 on the scale. It’s going to be interested to see what happens with the body and how that impacts his ability to catch, and his approach is enough of an issue that it will likely detract from the power production.

38. Chris Vallimont, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Mercyhurst (MIA)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 40/50 40/50 89-93 / 95

A fifth rounder from a small, D-II school in Pennsylvania, Vallimont was traded to help balance the Sergio Romo deal with Miami. He has a fastball with traits teams covet with increasing frequency. He only sits 89-93 and tops at 95, but his arm angle and ability to really backspin the fastball creates big life on the pitch, enabling him to beat hitters at the top of the zone. He’s struck out a lot of guys (29% on the year) and was promoted to Hi-A before the trade, which is fine for a 22-year-old but impressive for someone who came out of such a small program just last year.

39. Seth Gray, 3B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from Wright State (MIN)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 35/55 45/45 45/50 55/55

Gray had a breakout junior year at Wright State, growing into raw and game power while also doubling his walk total. He has a good frame, and good hands and baseball athleticism, but is a hit-over-power, late-count, fringe passive/patient type who likely won’t show much in terms of batting average.

40. Bailey Ober, RHP
Drafted: 12th Round, 2017 from College of Charleston (MIN)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 9″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/45 60/60 60/60 85-87 / 88

There’s very little precedent for someone with Ober’s velocity having big league success, but it’s clear why his mid-80s fastball has been dominant to this point. His size and deceptive, overhand release point create tough angle on his stuff, and he misses bats at the top of the zone. Ober also has a plus changeup. It might work in a relief role.

Drafted: 23th Round, 2016 from Oregon State (MIN)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 50/50 35/40 50/50 50/55 60/60

Hamilton was a great defensive third baseman in college who took to catching in pro ball. He’s an interesting 26th-man candidate as a third catcher and defensive replacement at various positions.

42. Charles Mack, C
Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Williamsville East HS (NY) (MIN)
Age 20.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 45/50 30/50 50/50 40/50 40/40

Stocky and physical, Mack is converting to catcher after spending his first two pro seasons as an infielder. He has some strength-driven power that should at least enable him to profile as a backup if the conversion works out.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Relief Types
Dakota Chalmers, RHP
Moises Gomez, RHP
Zach Neff, LHP
Cody Laweryson, RHP
Erik Cha, LHP

Chalmers had Tommy John in April of 2018, then was acquired from Oakland in exchange for Fernando Rodney in August of that year. He has 40+ FV stuff, he’ll flash three plus pitches (94-97, power mid-80s changeup, low-80s curveball), and he had some dominant starts during the summer after he returned, but he’s very wild, and was erratic in the Fall League. He’s on the 40-man and should debut this year. Gomez touches 98 but his slider quality is very inconsistent. Neff and Cha are low-slot relievers with tailing fastballs and sweeping breakers, classic specialist types who need something else to profile under the new three-batter minimum rule. Laweryson relies on deception and a good breaking ball. He struck out 63 over 46 innings in the Appy League while topping out at 92.

Depth Starters
Tyler Wells, RHP
Griffin Jax, RHP
Charlie Barnes, LHP
Landon Leach, RHP
Sean Mooney, RHP

Wells missed 2019 because of Tommy John. His pitches have tough angle because of his size (he’s 6-foot-8) and arm slot. Pre-surgery, his secondaries were average and his heater was above. Jax is 90-94 with a 50 slider and change and above-average command; that’s at least a spot starter. Charlie Barnes has a plus changeup and his fastball has enough sink to offset it’s lack of velo (87-90) and keep him from getting too hurt. Leach was a 40 FV developmental No. 4/5 starter type until he missed all of 2019 with a shoulder issue. Mooney had TJ before the 2019 draft and fell to Day Three. He’s 88-91 with a cutter, curveball, and change, another likely depth arm who may have another gear coming off of rehab.

Position Player Pu Pu Platter
Jeferson Morales, C
Carlos Aguiar, OF
Gabriel Maciel, CF
DaShawn Keirsey, CF
Malfrin Sosa, OF

Morales, age 20, is a very muscular 5-foot-8; he’s got some twitch, average raw, and more walks than strikeouts so far. He has a good body but it has no projection. He has plus raw arm strength but he’s mechanically inconsistent exiting his crouch so his pop times vary. That inconsistency extends to the defense. Aguiar missed 2019 with an elbow injury. He’s a physical projection/visually pleasing swing corner outfield prospect who signed for $1 million back in 2017. He was young for the class so he’ll still be 18 all of next year. Maciel is a 70 runner but we don’t see an offensive impact enabling anything more than a fifth outfielder there. Keirsey could maybe be a 60 run and center field glove with doubles power, but he had hip issues again in 2019 after suffering a pretty severe hip injury while in college. Sosa is also a young-for-the-class power projection bat.

System Overview

The Twins still have a very deep system, but their position as buyers was leveraged pretty well by sellers ahead of the trade deadline. The players traded to San Francisco for Sam Dyson (Jaylin Davis, Prelander Berroa, and Kai-Wei Teng are on the Giants list) were all pretty good, and Dyson absolutely tanked after the deal, amid some controversy related to the condition of his shoulder. Arguable top 100 prospect Lewin Diaz was sent to Miami for a few months of Sergio Romo.

Much of the pitching in this system will have an opportunity to impact the big league club at some point next season due to the departures from the 2019 rotation. Thorpe will likely be in the rotation at some point, Graterol may be there or in the back of the bullpen, the Twins might hit the gas on Jhoan Duran’s development if they think he’s one of the best five arms in the org at some point later in the summer, and many of the 40 FV arms will likely come up in 2020 as well. Just eyeballing the list, we’d guess about seven pitchers are poised to graduate next year, which, if we assume the Twins will take on a buyer’s posture again next summer, means this system seems likely to take a dip over the next 12 months. But of course, that means there are a bunch of good, young players who’ve grabbed hold of big league roles.


Sunday Notes: Ben Cherington Aspires to Build the Bucs (Still Cherishes Cistulli)

Ben Cherington stepped into a conflicted situation when he took over the GM reins in Pittsburgh last month. On the heels of a 93-loss season, an understandably-frustrated Pirates fan base wants to see a competitive team on the field in 2020. At the same time, a complete rebuild is arguably the more prudent course of action. Given the current roster and farm system, paired with ownership’s notoriously-tight purse strings… let’s just say that while Cherington is smart, he doesn’t possess magical powers. Patchwork moves alone aren’t going to turn this team around.

Nevertheless, that might be the plan. The former Red Sox and Blue Jays executive wasn’t willing to embrace the rebuild idea when I suggested it earlier this week during the Winter Meetings.

“There can be reasonable opinions from reasonable people, smart people, about the right direction, the right way to build,” said Cherington. “I can tell you that within our room, within baseball operations, we’re not thinking about it that way. We’re thinking about it more as ‘needing to get to a winning team.’ There’s no one path toward that.”

Cherington opined that there is untapped potential on the roster, and added that he’ll explore ways to add more talent. But what exactly does that mean? While he intimated that moves will be made, these are Bob Nutting’s Pittsburgh Pirates he’s working for now. I’d venture to guess that Scott Boras doesn’t have PNC Park phone numbers on speed dial. Read the rest of this entry »


Adam Jones Does Something Interesting

The return of a vibrant free agent market has been the story of the offseason thus far. In recent days, we’ve seen three $200-plus million deals, including two record-setting contracts for pitchers and a $245 million contract for Anthony Rendon. Alongside, we’ve observed the continuation of a pattern established early this winter, where most players on our Top 50 Free Agent List have beaten their projected salaries. That hasn’t been true in every case: Josh Lindbloom just signed for more years and a lower AAV than we expected. But he’s one of the few exceptions. From Gerrit Cole to Tanner Roark, most players have signed for more money than we anticipated. Even Blake Treinen, who the Athletics didn’t even tender a contract to, inked an eight-figure deal on the open market.

That doesn’t mean everything has been patched up between ownership and the players. Teams seem every bit as leery of exceeding the luxury tax as they did last year, a stance best evinced by the Angels’ decision to package first-round pick Will Wilson with Zack Cozart in what amounted to a salary dump. More troublingly for the journeymen of the game, teams non-tendered more arb-eligible players than usual, including productive veterans like Treinen, Kevin Pillar, and Jonathan Villar. Consequently, the market for second-division starters and part-time players is unusually tight and crowded. Even with a resurgent free agent market, it’s a precarious time to be a low-level player in search of a home.

This brings us to Adam Jones, an All-Star turned platoon outfielder in the November of his career. In an era in which rookies are debuting near the peak of their powers, Jones’s career arc looks like the parabola we used to expect as the norm. After peaking as a 4-5 WAR player in his late 20s, he’s steadily declined in recent years:

Down the Mountain
wRC+ DEF WAR
2015 111 5.8 3.4
2016 98 -2.9 2.1
2017 106 -11.4 1.6
2018 96 -12.5 0.4
2019 87 -7.5 -0.1

Read the rest of this entry »