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I’m not sure a team has ever telegraphed its intent to make a splash more than the Giants. The Giants were one of the finalists for Shohei Ohtani. They were, of course, disappointed to not get him. They were also one of the finalists for Giancarlo Stanton, before Stanton invoked his no-trade clause. The Giants and Marlins had otherwise worked out an agreement. Turned down by their top two options, the Giants kept on exploring the market, looking to make an impact move. Such a move is now official. The Giants have made a big trade with the Rays.

Giants get

• Evan Longoria

Rays get

• Christian Arroyo
• Denard Span
• Matt Krook
• Stephen Woods

Longoria used to have, for several years, more trade value than almost anyone else. It was almost impossible to imagine the Rays letting him go. But now the best player in Rays history is on the move, because, ultimately, the Rays have to act like the Rays have to act, and Longoria isn’t what he was when he was younger. Rays fans will get to remember his 20s. Giants fans will get to look ahead to his 30s. The Giants have gotten better for today, but the future of the club now looks even more challenging.

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We’ve been writing here — perhaps ad nauseum — about the changes the game is undergoing currently. The ball may be different, the launch angles may be changing, power is definitely up, and starting-pitcher innings are down. Are these fundamental changes, though? Is this a different game we’re watching than the ones our elders enjoyed? And if so, is it necessary to alter the way we think about building successful teams?

I thought it would be interesting, at last week’s Winter Meetings, to ask front-office members of all kinds if they thought the game had really changed. If so, I wondered, had these insiders changed the way they approach their jobs over the last few years? To get better answers, I asked most of these generous people to talk off the record — meaning, in some cases, I’m unable to reveal their particular roles.

These answers do run the gamut, and the sources are varied — from former players to former business-school graduates. In sum, the responses offer us a peek at a fundamental choice in front of every team-builder right now, the same choice, ironically, that players face every day — namely, is it time to adjust?

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As I noted in my post at the end of last week regarding Hall of Fame holdovers, the ballot is a bit of a mess right now. There are already seven players who’ve received at least 45% of the vote — generally a pretty good gauge of worthiness when it comes to the Hall — plus a handful of others (Larry Walker, in particular) who are lower on the ballot but deserve induction, as well.

Joining that group of deserving candidates this offseason is a collection of four additional players who merit a place in the Hall — as well as Omar Vizquel, who is getting a lot of votes in the early going. This year’s entries include one no-doubter (Chipper Jones), another who’s deserving and likely to earn induction on the strength of his offensive contributions (Jim Thome), and two more players who merit selection but whose case rests largely on defensive contributions (Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen).

Before we get to the contenders, let’s take a brief look at the players who’ve earned spots on the ballot with solid careers but lack much of a case for the Hall.

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This past Friday, writing even before the actual start of winter (it’s still officially autumn!), this author nevertheless declared the Angels the winners of the offseason.

Their triumph in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes alone might have sealed that distinction, but last week the Angels also added Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler. Earlier in the offseason, they extended Justin Upton. And for good measure, they signed former Braves prospect Kevin Maitan.

They’ve added a number of crucial wins — at a reasonable total cost — to propel themselves from the bubble of the projected standings to a Wild Card favorite.

The Angels have upgraded two infield positions, retained a slugging corner outfielder, and have added perhaps an ace pitcher. I touched on all this in the piece regarding the Angels from the end of last week. What I didn’t examine was another area of need the club has addressed thanks to Ohtani’s dual-threat status.

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Kirsten Karbach grew up listening to Andy Freed and Dave Wills call Tampa Bay Rays games on the radio. Now she’s following in their footsteps. At age 27, Karbach is the voice of Philadelphia’s high-A affiliate, the Clearwater Threshers. She’s been with the Florida State League club since 2013.

According to Ben Gellman, Karbach got her job by “knocking our socks off” in an interview.

“When I was with the Threshers, my boss told me I could hire a No. 2 broadcaster to intern and help me out,” explained Gellman, who now does play-by-play for the Salem Red Sox. “He suggested a guy from the University of South Florida, whose tape was pretty good, but I’d heard a couple of innings of Kirsten on tape and was blown away by the quality of her call. I told my boss, ‘We have got to bring her in for an interview.’

“We brought her on board and she was a terrific partner, consistently pointing out nuances of the game and enhancing the broadcast. When she took over the lead job in 2014, I knew she’d do a fantastic job and I’m so happy to see her continued success in a corner of our industry that badly needs more women and people of color — and other people who aren’t straight, white males — to give us a diverse perspective that better reflects our fans.”

Karbach obviously feels the same way, and while she’s currently the only female play-by-play broadcaster in affiliated baseball she doesn’t expect that to be the case for much longer. Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Santana is trading Polish Boys for cheesesteaks, looks like, agreeing this afternoon on a three-year, $60 million deal (with an option for a fourth, at $17.5 million) to join the Phillies. The deal probably makes sense from a money standpoint, and Santana is a really good switch-hitting slugger with power and patience, but… does it make sense from the Phillies’ perspective?

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Last year, seven former players received at least 45% of the Hall of Fame vote while also earning less than the 75% necessary to actually get elected to the Hall. Seven former players, in other words, possessed sufficiently impressive credentials to merit serious consideration and were then all pushed to this year’s ballot for further review. Notably, this was one year after eight players returned to the ballot having received at least 40% of the previous season’s vote. The consequence of these developments? A very crowded ballot in 2018 — and that’s without even accounting for the newly eligible candidates.

It’s a state of affairs that’s rarely been duplicated in history. Back in the late 40s and early 50s, there was a considerable logjam of deserving candidates. Writers responded by including an average of nine-plus players per ballot, inducting 13 different players between 1951 and -55.

There was a similar issue in 1981, a year in which 10 players received at least 40% of Hall of Fame votes but only Bob Gibson was elected. The writers eventually elected Don Drysdale, Harmon Killebrew, Juan Marichal, and Hoyt Wilhelm, leaving the Veterans’ Committee to decide the rest. Jim Bunning, Nellie Fox, and Red Schoendienst, eventually earned a place in the Hall, while Gil Hodges and Maury Wills remain on the outside looking in.

It was shortly after that 1981 election that writers began to significantly downsize their ballots. Consider: from 1936 to 1986, the average number of players per ballot was at least seven for every season but 1946. From 1987 through 2013, however, the average decreased significantly, never once reaching the seven-per-ballot mark. The trend was particularly pronounced from 2006 to -12, when the average was just 5.7 players per ballot.

The last four cycles have seen an average of roughly eight votes per ballot, but with eight of the 12 Hall of Famers elected coming on the first try, ballots remain congested.

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With Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been dealt, the Marlins might as well go all the way and sell everything they can.

Half-measures have no value at this point, in this process. This is an everything-must-go sale. The Marlins are bottoming out with or without Yelich, so they might as well cash in on his considerable value now for younger pieces that could conceivably be part of the next competitive Marlins team. And while the notion of a “competitive Marlins team” seems merely like a hypothetical at the moment, it could become a reality in the wake of a rebuild. That rebuild likely wouldn’t reach its apex until after 2022, though, the club’s last year of control over Yelich.

The Marlins have one of the weakest systems in baseball, and the returns from the Stanton and Ozuna deals are unlikely to elevate the team’s farm into the upper, or even middle, tier of the rankings.

While there are some reports suggesting that Miami intends to keep Yelich, that makes little sense at this point. The Marlins do seem open to fielding offers.

The club’s new ownership group has been criticized for dumping Stanton’s contract and trading Ozuna while failing to receive a single top-100 prospect in the process. Ozuna and Stanton combined for 96 home runs and 12 WAR last season.

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You could say that, in recent years, the Cardinals and Marlins have dealt with opposite strengths and weaknesses. Even leaving ownership issues aside, the Cardinals have fielded teams full of pretty good players, with precious few great ones. The Marlins, meanwhile, have had their great players, but they couldn’t surround them with any depth. With the Marlins presently tearing down, it made all the sense in the world for the Cardinals to try to get their ear. And although the Cardinals ultimately couldn’t get Giancarlo Stanton to waive his no-trade clause, Wednesday they’ve settled for a powerful alternative. The newest outfielder in St. Louis is none other than Marcell Ozuna.

This is the kind of trade the Cardinals were lined up to make. This is a form of talent consolidation, and the team might not be finished. The Cubs are just within reach, and the Cardinals aren’t happy missing the playoffs two years in a row. They made it a mission of theirs to acquire some form of impact bat. From the Marlins’ side, this was inevitable, unavoidable. This is how a rebuild proceeds, and the years ahead will be ugly. With luck, the Marlins will have a promising 2021. With luck, the Cardinals will have a promising 2018.

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I will admit that I haven’t, at any point this winter, thought about the Diamondbacks trading Zack Greinke. They just won 93 games and reached the NLDS. They have Paul Goldschmidt under team control for two more years, but A.J. Pollock and Pat Corbin for just one. Their window to win with this group is not going to be open very long, but they haven’t made any real noise about rebuilding, at least not publicly. And if they’re going to try to win again in 2018, they probably need Zack Greinke to do it.

Right now, we have the Diamondbacks projected for 84 wins, putting them two wins behind St. Louis for the top Wild Card spot in the NL. The Cardinals are clearly looking to upgrade their roster, and are probably close to landing Marcell Ozuna from Miami, if I’m any good at reading tea leaves. There is a bit of a gap between AZ and the fringe NL contenders, so the Diamondbacks could get worse and still think they’re as good as Colorado or San Francisco, but reducing their chances of making the playoffs would be a weird strategy in Pollock’s walk year.

Of course, if they don’t move Greinke, they have no shot of re-signing Pollock, so perhaps if they thought they could free up enough money to keep Pollock in Arizona past this year, moving a good chunk of Greinke’s contract could make sense. So, yeah, if someone wants to take most of the deal, and you think you can use it to keep the rest of the core together longer, maybe that’s worth thinking about.

But there’s this rumor kicking around that has the Rangers and Diamondbacks talking about a Greinke trade that just doesn’t make much sense to me.

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