Austin Wells is doing more than just establishing himself as a solid everyday catcher in his first full big-league season. Thanks in part to a hot July that saw him slug five home runs and put up a .941 OPS, he’s been batting cleanup for the New York Yankees. The 25-year-old left-handed-hitting backstop isn’t exactly on his way to becoming the next Yogi Berra or Bill Dickey, but what he’s doing is notable nonetheless.

In the present-day iteration of the Bronx Bombers, slotting into the four-hole means following Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the lineup. Is it easier or harder to hit directly behind a pair of players who are on track for the Hall of Fame? I asked Wells that question last weekend at Fenway Park.

“I think it’s easier or harder depending on the pressure you put on yourself,” replied Wells, whom the Yankees drafted 28th overall in 2020 out of the University of Arizona. “If you look at it like you’re expected to do what they’re doing, then there’s going to be a lot of pressure to perform. Being able to stay in your zone and know what you do well takes the pressure off.”

That he’s not about to match the exploits of the team’s dynamic duo is stating the obvious. Judge has 41 home runs and a 216 wRC+ in the current campaign, while comparably a mere mortal (can a superstar be a more mortal?) Soto has 27 home runs and a 187 wRC+. Wells understands that he isn’t at their level. At the same time, he’s not about to put strict limits on his long-ball potential.

“They’re going to hit 40-plus homers every single year, and that’s not never been me,” the humble-yet-confident catcher told me. “I mean, who knows? It could possibly happen, but right now my is to keep the lineup moving. That’s where I’m at right now.”

Wells’s overall numbers on the season include eight home runs, a 116 wRC+ over 253 plate appearances, and 2.5 WAR.

Eric Longenhagen is bullish on his potential. When our Yankees Top Prospects list went up in December, my colleague described a swing “beautifully connected from the ground up,” adding that the “blend of his barrel control and the natural lift in his swing gives him a potent contact and power combination.” Despite concerns about his defense — primarily his throwing arm — Longenhagen assigned Wells a 50 FV.

His work behind the plate has been more than adequate. While his throwing remains a bit below average, Wells is plus-six in Framing Runs Above Average and he has seven Defensive Runs Saved. The strides he’s made defensively are laudable.

“I believe in my ability to get better every time I catch,” said Wells. “That’s been the biggest key, just believing. It’s led me to where I’m at now, and hopefully it continues to lead me into even better catching, better numbers, and more wins.”

———

RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Bobby Richardson went 1 for 17 against Eli Grba.

Doug Gwosdz went 1 for 11 against Steve Carlton.

Mark Grudzielanek went 9 for 11 against Tim Hudson.

Doug Mientkiewicz went 7 for 11 against Bronson Arroyo.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia went 7 for 15 against Jeremy Guthrie.

———

I recently talked to a pitcher who described what he considers the worst pitch he’s thrown all season, and while I haven’t yet shared his telling — stay tuned — the conversation did lead me down the same path with Tarik Skubal prior to last night’s Tigers-Royals game at Comerica Park. He cited a pitch that Hunter Renfroe stroked for a run-scoring extra-base the previous night.

“I threw a changeup that cut like crazy,” Skubal told me. “Whenever I do that, I usually throw the ball out. I didn’t throw the ball out. On the next pitch, I gave up a double down the line on a changeup that cut again. I should have thrown it out, but instead, I was like, ‘Ah, what are the odds I cut it twice in a row?’”

Skubal explained that of all his pitches, the changeup is most-impacted by a difference in baseballs. Moreover, not all baseballs are created equal. As the Tigers ace put it, “Some balls are wound a little different — the seams are a little different — so the seam effect isn’t consistent. I rely on a lot of seam effect with that pitch specifically.”

Skubal went on to say that the pitch he threw to Renfroe cut enough that it registered as a slider. In reality, it was a changeup delivered with a baseball that he normally would have thrown out — but regretfully didn’t.

———

A quiz:

Fergie Jenkins has the most career wins (284) by a pitcher born in Canada. Which Canadian-born pitcher has the second-most wins? (A hint: He won a World Series ring in the current century.)

The answer can be found below.

———

NEWS NOTES

A reminder that SABR’s 52nd annual convention will be held in downtown Minneapolis beginning this Wednesday and running through Saturday. Featured speakers include Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and Twins GM Thad Levine. More information can be found here.

Denny Lemaster, a left-handed pitcher whose MLB career spanned the 1962-1972 season, died on July 24 at age 85. LeMaster went 17-11 with the Milwaukee Braves in 1964 and later played with the Houston Astros and Montreal Expos.

Reyes Moronta, who had been pitching in the Mexican League after playing for four MLB teams from 2017-2023, died in a motor vehicle accident this past week at age 31 (per Baseball Player Passings). The Santo Domingo native made 136 of his 177 big-league appearances with the San Francisco Giants.

Jim Weber, the longtime play-by-play announcer for the Toledo Mud Hens, has died at age 78. He began calling games for Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate in 1975.

——-

The answer to the quiz Ryan Dempster, with 132 wins. The Sechelt, British Columbia native won a World Series with the Boston Red Sox in 2013.

———

When the Seattle Mariners acquired Justin Turner at the trade deadline, they brought on board a 39-year-old veteran of 16 big-league seasons who is, for all intents and purposes, a hitting guru in uniform. Reputation-wise, he has been akin to an extra hitting coach in the later part of his career.

I asked Mariners manager Scott Servais if veterans of Turner’s ilk can positively impact young hitters when they join a new team.

“Absolutely,” said Servais. “I’ve often said that as coaches and managers you talk to players and try to lead them in a certain direction, but players are always going to listen to players more than they listen to others — and certainly to a guy that has a track record like Justin Turner has.”

Following up, I asked the ninth-year skipper if he could give an example of a player who came to one of his teams and made an especially-meaningful impact. It wasn’t a position player he named, but rather a pitcher.

“When we signed Robbie Ray [prior to the 2022 season],” said Servais. “We’re seeing the maturing of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. A lot of what Robbie brought, those guys have taken and run with. You see it happen all over the league… It’s welcome. Players like it. I enjoy it. If you have a guy like that who carries so much respect amongst the group, it’s a way for me to funnel messaging through.”

Servais proceeded to add an entertaining caveat:

“If he agrees. If he doesn’t agree, that’s another conversation. Those have happened before too. But it is another voice.”

———

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Kia Tigers have the KBO’s best record, at 61-42-2. The Kiwoom Heroes have the KBO’s worst record, at 45-57.

Hyun Jin Ryu is 6-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 115 innings with the Hanwha Eagles. The 37-year-old left-hander spent seven seasons with the KBO club before pitching in MLB from 2013-2023.

Mel Rojas Jr. is slashing .338/.433/.593 with 25 home runs in 480 plate appearances for the KBO’s KT Wiz. The 34-year-old former Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves prospect last played stateside in 2017.

Jeter Downs signed with NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks earlier this week. A first-round pick by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017 who was later part of the Mookie Betts trade between the Red Sox-Dodgers, the 26-year-old infielder was released by the Yankees on July 30.

Shugo Maki is slashing .274/.333/.482 with 16 home runs in 363 plate appearances for the Yokohama BayStars. A three-time NPB All-Star, the 26-year-old second baseman has stolen nine bases without getting caught.

The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have NPB’s best record, at 62-31. The Saitama Seibu Lions have NPB’s worst record, at 29-64.

———

I’ve mentioned Hiroto Takahashi a handful of times this season, and for good reason: The 21-year-old Chunichi Dragons right-hander has been NPB’S most-dominant pitcher. In 13 starts, Takahashi has a record of 8-1 to go with a 0.48 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 93 innings. Moreover, he has surrendered just 58 hits, none of which have left the yard.

Wanting to know more about him, I asked one of his 2023 World Baseball Classic teammates for a snapshot scouting report.

“I haven’t faced him, but velocity-wise he throws really hard,“ Red Sox DH Masataka Yoshida told me prior to a recent game at Fenway Park. “The breaking ball is elite level, too. He’s got different [pitches] in his arsenal that can be used as a put-away pitch. He definitely has the potential to come over here in the future.”

In search of another perspective, I also checked in with my friend Jim Allen (@JballAllen).

“He’s the real deal,” the Tokyo-based baseball scribe replied via email. “He lacks the velocity that makes MLB GMs drool like they do over [Roki] Sasaki, but his secondary pitches are probably better. I don’t have his max, but my guess would be 98 mph. He sits at 95.”

———

A random obscure former player snapshot:

Don Leshnock faced five batters in a scoreless inning for the Detroit Tigers against the California Angels on June 7, 1972. The southpaw from Youngstown, Ohio retired Leo Cardenas on a groundout, then sandwiched singles by Sandy Alomar Sr. and Mickey Rivers with punch-outs of Nolan Ryan and Vada Pinson. It was his only big-league game. Prior to that outing, Leshnock hurled a no-hitter while playing for the Carolina League’s Rocky Mount Leafs in 1970.

———

FARM NOTES

Travis Bazzana hit his first professional home run on Wednesday as the High-A Lake County Captains lambasted the Beloit Sky Carp 17-5. The 21-year-old native of New South Wales, Australia was drafted first overall this summer by the Cleveland Guardians.

The Minnesota Twins promoted their top-rated prospect, Walker Jenkins, to High-A Cedar Rapids earlier this week. Drafted fifth overall last year out of a Southport, North Carolina high school, the 19-year-old outfielder had been slashing .273/.404/.413 with three home runs and a 139 wRC+ with the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels.

Cole Carrigg is slashing .284/.360/.472 with 10 home runs and a 133 wRC+, and has swiped 36 bases in 44 attempts, with the High-A Spokane Indians. Drafted in the second round last year out of San Diego State University, the 22-year-old infielder/outfielder is No. 25 on our Colorado Rockies Top Prospects list.

Keiverson Ramirez has a 4-1 record to go with a 0.71 ERA and a 2.39 FIP over 38 innings in the Dominican Summer League. The 18-year-old right-hander from Valencia, Venezuela was signed by the St. Louis Cardinals in January.

The Tigers won the Florida Complex League championship on Monday by defeating the Pirates 12-1. Detroit’s rookie-level affiliate was managed by Salvador Paniagua.

———

My writeup of the trade deadline deal that sent a pair of New York Yankees prospects to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Mark Leiter Jr. included reports on on the promising youngsters from Eric Longenhagen. My colleague isn’t the only source I solicited a perspective from. I also reached out to someone who has seen all of Ben Cowles’s games this season, and the majority of Jack Neely’s.

“Cowles shows confidence and comfortability at all three infield positions (other than first base),” Somerset Patriots broadcaster Steven Cusumano said of the 24-year-old infielder, who had a 140 wRC+ with the Double-A affiliate. “I wouldn’t say that he stuck out at any one over the other; he plays all three very, very well. He is as consistent a player as they come, including defensively, in spite of how much inconsistency there would be in what position he played every day. Also worth mentioning, he’s as good a baserunner as you’ll find. That quickness does show in the field from time-to-time and he has excellent baseball instincts.

“Neely profiles as a back-end reliever: big and intimidating presence with two excellent pitches,” he said of the 24-year-old right-handed reliever who had a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings with Somerset. “Fastball (94-97) and a really good slider (82-25). Huge frame physically, a lot of tenacity on the mound and one of the most confident players you’ll ever encounter.”

———

I also solicited quotes for a trade that I didn’t write about. The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Nick Yorke from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for right-hander Quinn Priester, and I asked two of the 22-year-old infield prospect’s former teammates for their thoughts on him.

“He’s a good player, man,” Boston infielder Jamie Westbrook said of Yorke, whom Eric Longehagen has assigned a 45 FV. “He’s got good bat-to-ball. He’s got some pop. He drives the ball to right field well. He plays a good second base and has also started to play the outfield this year. When I was with Yorkie for a short period of time in [Triple-A] Worcester, he had good at-bats and moved the ball around. I would hate to put a comp on him, but he’s a solid player.”

“Outside of the player he is, he is one of the best friends I’ve had in the organization,” said Red Sox infielder/outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela. “He’s’s a tremendous person. He’s always there for you as a teammate. And he’s obviously a good hitter. I’ve seen him through the years, and he’s getting better and better. Hopefully he will get the chance there to play in the major leagues.”

———

LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Over The Monster’s Maura McGurk went to a Decemberists concert and proceeded to wonder what’s next for the Red Sox now that the trade deadline has passed.

Trade acquisition Yusei Kikuchi utilized his changeup more frequently than he had in Toronto while fanning 11 batters in his Houston Astros debut. Chandler Rome has the story at The Athletic (subscription required).

The Athletic’s Zack Meisel wrote about CC Sabathia’s journey from unpolished draft pick to Cleveland Hall of Famer (subscription required).

Ron LeFlore made his major league debut with the Detroit Tigers on August 1, 1974, one year after he’d been released from Jackson State Prison, where he served a sentence for armed robbery. Adam Henig wrote about it for The Metro Times.

———

RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The Chicago White Sox have a record of 27-86 following their worst-in-franchise-history 19th straight loss last night. The 1962 New York Mets, who infamously finished 40-120, were 30-83 through 113 games.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a big-league-best 46-4 this year when outhitting their opponents. The Detroit Tigers, at 40-4, have the second-best record when outhitting their opponents.

Nine consecutive Kansas City Royals batters had hits in the seventh inning of Friday night’s 9-2 win over the Detroit Tigers. The nine straight hits tied a franchise record that had been set in a May 7, 1980 game against the Chicago White Sox.

Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has gone 16-for-22 in his last six games against the White Sox.

George Kirby hasn’t allowed more than three walks in any of his 79 big-league starts. The Seattle Mariners right-hander is the only pitcher in the modern era with at least 50 starts and more games started than walks allowed (56).

Max Scherzer has has 3,405 strikeouts and 112 HBPs.
Justin Verlander has 3,393 strikeouts and 113 HBPs.

In 1980, the Billy Martin-managed Oakland Athletics had five starters throw 211 or more innings and combine to throw 93 complete games. Bob Lacey, who made 46 of his 47 appearances as a reliever, threw a complete-game shutout in his lone start.

Players born on today’s date include Gabe Gabler, whose big-league career comprised three pinch-hit appearances for the Chicago Cubs in 1958. The St. Louis native fanned all three times.

Also born on today’s date was Ray Oyler, who started 70 games at shortstop for the 1968 World Series champion Detroit Tigers despite slashing just .135/.213/.186 over the course of the season. The slick-fielding, offensively-inept infielder had a sacrifice bunt in his lone Fall Classic plate appearance.

On today’s date in 1934, the New York Giants scored 11 runs in the ninth inning while routing the Philadelphia Phillies 21-4 in the second game of a Saturday double-header. Right-hander Reggie Grabowski incurred all of the damage in his lone inning of work, while Mel Ott finished 4-for-4 with two homers, a double, and six runs scored.

On August 5, 2001, the Cleveland Indians rallied from a 14-2 seventh-inning deficit to beat the Seattle Mariners 15-14. Omar Vizquel’s two-out, bases-clearing triple in the ninth tied it, while Jolbert Cabrera’s walk-off single plated Kenny Lofton in the 11th to cap the comeback.

Ranked and briefly analyzed below are the prospects who have been traded during the loosely defined “2024 deadline season,” which for simplicity’s sake I consider all of July. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of have been analyzed at length on this site. An index of those pieces can be found here; you can also click the hyperlink in the “Trade” column below, which will take you to the relevant article. I’ve moved all of the 35+ FV and above players listed here to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through to see where they rank among their new teammates and read their full scouting reports. Our Farm System Rankings, which update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up following the draft and the deadline.

Yesterday, Michael Baumann wrote about the enormous proportion of the Yankees’ offense that Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are responsible for. According to weighted runs created, those two sluggers have been responsible for just under 39% of the Bronx bombardment this season, a percentage that is unmatched not just in this cursed year of 2024, but in this entire cursed millennium. Today, I’d like to focus just on Judge. He’s having the best season of his career at the plate, which is a ludicrous thing to say about a player who hit 62 home runs just two years ago, and who, if not for an oddly situated concrete embankment in Dodger Stadium’s right field, might well have done so again last year. If we follow Baumann’s lead and look just at this century, the leaderboard for single-season wRC+ among qualified batters looks like this:

First of all, no, I didn’t make a mistake. As of Thursday morning, Judge was running a 212 wRC+, which makes him tied with a peak Barry Bonds season. Second of all, I lied just a moment ago. We don’t need to limit ourselves to the 2000s for the top six wRC+ marks to go to Bonds and Judge. If we start traveling back in time, the leaderboard looks exactly the same until we get all the way to 1957, when a couple of guys named Ted Williams (223) and Mickey Mantle (217) crash the party. Judge is hitting like an inner circle Hall of Famer, again. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2024 trade deadline is now in the history books, so it’s time for a post-mortem on how it went. As I do every year, I set the ZiPS projection system the task of seeing which teams moved their division, playoff, and championship probabilities the most. The methodology is relatively simple: I take the ZiPS projected standings the morning after the trade deadline and compare them to a second set of projections in which I undo every trade that was made over the prior three weeks. I always find the results fascinating because people often underestimate the secondary effects of the deadline, such as how a team did relative to their competition, how a team’s strength of schedule can change based on the strength of their opponents, and how the contours of the Wild Card races change when a competitor effectively drops out or suddenly gets better.

With players like Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr., and Blake Snell staying put, there weren’t many impact trades, but it was still a busy deadline. On the whole, ZiPS found this deadline to be considerably more consequential than last year’s. In 2023, ZiPS only projected three teams as having moved their playoff probability by at least five percentage points, while this year, there were eight. In fact, two of the changes were the largest percentage-point shifts that ZiPS has seen as long as I’ve been doing this, one positive (Baltimore), one negative (Tampa Bay). Read the rest of this entry »

The other day, I swam through the soupy Delaware Valley air to catch the Phillies-Yankees game at Citizens Bank Park, mostly to see Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in person. I don’t know if you’ve heard, but these two dudes are both having monster seasons. Through Tuesday’s games, they were first and third in the league in WAR, first and second in walk rate, first and second in wRC+, first and second in OBP, and first and fourth in slugging percentage. For those of you who like to go old school, they’re also third and seventh in batting average, first and fourth in runs scored, and first and fifth in RBI.

Back in December, I predicted that something like this might happen, in an article titled “Juan Soto Is Going to Score A Bajillion Runs Hitting In Front of Aaron Judge.” Soto isn’t quite on pace to score a bajillion runs, but he is on pace for 132, which would be one of the 10 highest totals since the strike. Read the rest of this entry »

Another year, another frenetic trade deadline. This year’s bonanza was light on top talent relative to recent years, but it made up for that in volume. With tight races in both leagues and plenty of teams looking to shore up clear weaknesses, it was a seller’s market, particularly when it came to pitching. Now that the dust has settled, I’m here to hand out some judgment.

These are going to be inherently subjective, but that doesn’t mean I don’t put a little rigor into my system. I’m focusing on two things here when I look at individual teams. First, and more important: Did a team’s moves match up with its needs? This is easy to gauge, and since it’s the whole point of the deadline, it carries the most wait. Second: How’d teams do on the trades they made? I think this part is inherently more subjective – there’s no unified prospect ranking or database where we can see how traded players will do the rest of the season, and we’re working with less information than teams have. That doesn’t mean I’m not crediting teams for trades I like or docking them for moves I don’t, just that I’m weighting it slightly less than the first category. Let’s dive right in.
Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, when the Dodgers designated lefty starter James Paxton for assignment, general manager Brandon Gomes spoke of the team targeting “an impact-type arm” ahead of the trade deadline. Gomes and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hit their target shortly before the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Tuesday, landing Tigers righty Jack Flaherty in exchange for a pair of prospects. Separately, the Dodgers also fortified their outfield depth by acquiring Kevin Kiermaier from the Blue Jays for lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

For all the talk about the top-of-the-line starters who could be moved before the deadline, the most discussed ones besides Flaherty — the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, the Giants’ Blake Snell, and the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet — all stayed put, making the Dodgers’ addition of the 28-year-old Flaherty feel that much more impactful. To acquire the Los Angeles native — who was traded on deadline day for the second year in a row, after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Orioles last August 1 — the Dodgers parted with 21-year-old catcher Thayron Liranzo and 24-year-old shortstop Trey Sweeney.

After years of injuries capped by a subpar campaign that included the aforementioned change of address, Flaherty is in the midst of his best season in half a decade. Because he’s skipped a couple of turns due to injections of painkillers (not cortisone) to address recurrent lower back pain (one on June 10, the second on July 2) and then had Monday’s turn scratched in anticipation of his being dealt, his 106.2 innings is 1.1 short of the threshold to qualify for the ERA title, but his numbers are impressive. Among AL pitchers with at least 100 innings, he ranks seventh with a 2.95 ERA and sixth with a 3.11 FIP. Among all AL pitchers, he’s tied for 11th with 2.5 WAR, and among the pitchers traded this month, he’s second only to the more contact-oriented Erick Fedde (2.7). Flaherty’s numbers are a huge improvement from last year’s 4.96 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 144.1 innings. While putting up a 6.75 ERA post-trade, he was bumped from the Orioles’ rotation in mid-September and finished the season in the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

Around the time of the Austin Hays trade last week, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reported that even though Hays and Lane Thomas were both best suited to a platoon corner role on a contender, the Nationals were determined to sell Thomas only if a suitor were willing to pay a starter’s return for him.

“Good luck,” I thought to myself. Thomas is a good player — a 3.1 WAR guy with 28 homers last year. This season, he’s nearly doubled his walk rate and has 28 stolen bases. That’s the third-most in baseball, more than Corbin Carroll and Byron Buxton put together. Thomas is on his second straight season of a wRC+ bumping up against 110 — this is a good player. But it’s also a guy who’s hitting .224/.299/.364 against right-handed pitching, which is most of the pitchers in the league.

Well, we have not because we ask not. Nats GM Mike Rizzo had a weekend to play with before the deadline, and it only takes one team to meet his price. And I’ll be darned, Big Rizz actually pulled it off. Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers lineup has been hit hard by injuries, particularly their infield, which in recent weeks has lost shortstop Mookie Betts, third baseman Max Muncy, and multipositional backups Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor. On Monday, the team made a move to shore that up, acquiring versatile former Gold Glove winner Tommy Edman — who himself has yet to play a major league game this season after undergoing offseason wrist surgery — from the Cardinals as part of a three-team, 10-player trade that also involved the White Sox.

In the full deal, both the NL West-leading Dodgers (63-44) and the Wild Card-chasing Cardinals (54-51) acquired one player for their lineup and one for their pitching staff, while the White Sox (27-81) loaded up on young infielders. The head count for the deal includes two players to be named later, though the teams could instead exchange cash. Here’s how it all shakes out:

Dodgers get:

• INF/OF Tommy Edman (from Cardinals)
• RHP Michael Kopech (from White Sox)
• RHP Oliver Gonzalez (from Cardinals)

Cardinals get:

• RHP Erick Fedde (from White Sox)
• OF Tommy Pham (from White Sox)
• Cash (from White Sox)
• Player to be named later or cash (from Dodgers)

White Sox get:

• 2B/OF Miguel Vargas (from Dodgers)
• 3B Alexander Albertus (from Dodgers)
• 2B Jeral Perez (from Dodgers)
• Player to be named later or cash (from Dodgers)

Edman, a 29-year-old switch-hitter who historically has been stronger against lefties (117 wRC+) than righties (93 wRC+), is a contact-oriented hitter who doesn’t walk much but who has some pop to go with his speed. He batted .248/.307/.399 (92 wRC+) last year for the Cardinals while hitting 13 homers and stealing 27 bases; for his career, he’s hit .265/.319/.408 (99 wRC+). In 2023, he split his time between shortstop (46 starts), second base (40 starts), center field (37 starts) and right field (six starts), continuing a career-long trend of never staying pinned to one position for very long. He played more third base than anywhere else in as a rookie in 2019 and in ’20 as well, and has dabbled in left field here and there. In 2021, the year he won the NL Gold Glove for second basemen, he made 35 starts in right field and three at shortstop as well as 115 at the keystone. When he’s healthy, he should fit right into a Dodgers roster that has a lot of moving parts, but his health is a question mark, and beyond his ability to steal a base — something the Dodgers besides Shohei Ohtani haven’t done much of — he doesn’t have a lot of upside offensively.

Edman missed three weeks last July due to right wrist inflammation, and the injury hampered him through the end of the season. He actually hit for a higher wRC+ after the injury than before (98 versus 89), though he did slump just prior to being sidelined. He underwent surgery on the wrist in October, but by early March it was clear he hadn’t recovered enough to be ready for Opening Day, as he was still experiencing lingering pain due to inflammation. A planned rehab stint in late June was forestalled by a right ankle sprain. He finally returned to action on July 9 with Double-A Springfield, but played just four games before reinjuring the ankle just before the All-Star break. Though Edman has been able to return to hitting, he’s been limited to DH duty, hitting a thin .207/.294/.241 in 34 PA spread over eight games. The lack of defensive work means that he’ll need to continue his rehab assignment for at least a few more games.

Update: Shortly after this article was published, the Dodgers reacquired utilityman Amed Rosario from the Rays in exchange for Triple-A righthander Michael Flynn, a move I’m shoehorning into this analysis post-publication as it may affect how (and when) they’ll deploy Edman. Rosario, a righty-swinging 28-year-old, split last season between the Guardians (where he played himself off of regular shortstop duty with woefully bad defense) and Dodgers, then signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with Tampa Bay. He’s hit .307/.331/.417 (115 wRC+) with a career-high 4.6% barrel rate but just a 2.5% walk rate, though his real appeal is as a lefty-masher: He owns a 121 wRC+ in 455 PA against southpaws since the start of 2022, and a 92 wRC+ against righties in 1,035 PA over that same span. Defensively, he’s made 18 starts in right field, 17 at second, and 10 apiece at short and third. His metrics are brutal (-5 DRS and -3 FRV in center, -5 DRS and -4 FRV at the three infield positions), but the samples are small; he hasn’t played more than 153.1 innings at any position — probably for a good reason.

Assuming Edman returns in a timely fashion, the Dodgers will probably slot him at shortstop initially; until then, they may opt for Rosario over Nick Ahmed, who debuted for the team on July 24 but could be on the bubble, roster-wise. Betts — who’s played 65 games at the position after playing 16 games there last year — has been out since an errant fastball fractured a metacarpal in his left hand on June 16. Cleared to swing a bat last week, he could be about two weeks away from returning to the Dodgers lineup. Once he returns, the Dodgers could deploy Edman at third base, as Muncy’s progress in his return from a strained oblique suffered in mid-May has been “stagnant,” per manager Dave Roberts. The Dodgers were 29-16 when Muncy last played, but they’ve gone just 34-28 since, with their third basemen hitting a combined .169/.253/.263 (52 wRC+) in a lineup that’s distinctly lacking in length. Enrique Hernández, Taylor, and Cavan Biggio have done most of the damage in Muncy’s absence; none of them has hit well at any position, with Biggio posting an 86 wRC+ overall with Toronto and Los Angeles, and both Hernández (70 wRC+) and Taylor (62 wRC+) even less productive.

If the Dodgers ever approach full strength, Edman or Rosario could share time at second with the lefty-swinging Gavin Lux, who’s hit for just a 33 wRC+ against lefties this year (94 vs. righties). Edman could also find time in center field, where the Dodgers have netted -0.1 WAR with a 73 wRC+, mainly from Andy Pages, a righty-swinging rookie, and James Outman, a lefty whose struggles have sent him shuttling between L.A. and Oklahoma City.

Both Edman and Kopech are under control though 2025. Edman is making $7 million this year and is signed for $9.5 million next year; he’s also got awards-based bonuses in his deal. Kopech — who moved to the bullpen after a dreadful 2023 season spent in Chicago’s rotation — is making $3 million this year and will be arbitration eligible one more time. The 28-year-old righty is renowned for having thrown a 105-mph fastball as a minor leaguer back in 2016. He still averages 98.6 mph with his four-seamer, and is viewed as having fantastic stuff by our two pitch-modeling systems (he throws his cutter slightly more often to lefties and his slider slightly more often to righties). However, his command is an issue; in addition to striking out 30.6% of hitters, he’s walking 12.6% (both improvements compared to last year), and he’s also served up 1.65 homers per nine, so he has a gaudy 4.74 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 43.2 innings:

Kopech has saved nine games and generally has a late-inning profile, but he’s going to be a bit of a project for pitching coach Mark Prior and company. The Dodgers bullpen ranks fourth in the NL with a 3.64 ERA, but it’s 13th in FIP, and it’s been downright terrible since the start of July, posting a 5.77 ERA and 4.74 FIP in 93.2 innings, tied for the second-highest total in the majors; relatedly, their banged-up rotation has a 5.10 ERA and 5.47 FIP in 100.2 innings this month, the majors’ second-lowest total. Righty Evan Phillips leads the team with 15 saves, but he has just two over the past five weeks, as Roberts has more often turned to righty Daniel Hudson, who has four saves since July 12 and seven overall; lefty Alex Vesia has five saves, and both Blake Treinen and Brent Honeywell have one apiece.

As for the Cardinals, their big addition is Fedde. A first-round pick by the Nationals in 2014, he spent parts of six seasons (2017-22) with Washington, getting knocked around for a 5.41 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 454.1 innings. Upon being non-tendered in November 2022, he spent a year pitching for the KBO’s NC Dinos, where he flat-out dominated, going 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA and 2.38 FIP in 180.1 inning. His performance earned him All-Star and MVP honors as well as the Choi Dong-won Award as the league’s top pitcher, and it rekindled interest in him stateside. The White Sox signed Fedde to a two-year, $15 million deal last December.

As Eric Longenhagen detailed when Fedde signed with Chicago, he improved primarily by raising his arm slot, boosting his changeup usage, and reshaping his slider (Statcast classifies it as a sweeper). On a team whose current .250 winning percentage is level with that of the 1962 Mets, Fedde posted a more-than-respectable 3.11 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 121.2 innings — a performance far better than he ever managed with the Nationals. With his sinker/cutter/sweeper/changeup mix, he’s striking out a modest 21.5% of hitters but walking just 6.8%, and generating a healthy 44.8% groundball rate:

It’s a command-over-stuff profile, but then, this is the Cardinals. After a 91-loss 2023 season in which their starters were lit for a 5.08 ERA and 4.61 FIP, they spent this past winter reshaping their rotation by signing free agents Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn. All three have been solid but unspectacular, with Gray the best (3.79 ERA, 2.85 FIP) as expected, but the unit nonetheless ranks 12th in the NL with a 4.44 ERA and 10th with a 4.09 FIP. Andre Pallante, a 25-year-old righty, has spent the past two months as the fifth starter, succeeding where the likes of Matthew Liberatore and the now-inured Steven Matz have scuffled. His 3.42 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 47.1 innings over nine starts is, uh, miles beyond the work of Miles Mikolas (4.99 ERA, 4.25 FIP). Thanks to Gray’s backloaded deal, Mikolas is currently the team’s highest-paid pitcher, however, so it would be a surprise if he ends up in the bullpen, whereas Pallante pitched in that capacity for the Cardinals for the first few weeks of the season.

In Pham, the Cardinals are getting a familiar face, as the now-36-year-old outfielder was drafted by the team out of high school in the 16th round in 2006 and spent parts of five seasons in St. Louis from ’14-18, when he was dealt to the Rays for three prospects (Génesis Cabrera, Roel Ramírez and Justin Williams) just ahead of the trade deadline. The White Sox, with whom he signed a split deal for a $3 million salary in mid-April, were the sixth team for which he’s played since then. In 297 PA with them, he’s hit .266/.330/.380 (102 wRC+) with five homers and six steals.

Pham isn’t hitting the ball as hard as usual. His 90.5 mph average exit velocity, which places him in the 75th percentile, is nonetheless down 1.6 mph from last year, when he was in the 93rd percentile, and both his 7.2% barrel rate and 39.9% hard-hit rate are in the 40s, percentile-wise; last year, they were in the 69th and 89th percentiles, respectively. He’s still an effective lefty-masher, with a 141 wRC+ in 61 PA against southpaws this year, and a 118 in 392 PA since the start of 2022, compared to a 93 wRC+ (in 1,008 PA) against righties. Dreadful defense (-13 DRS, -6 FRV, and -2.5 UZR, all in 570.2 innings spread across the three outfield positions) has offset the modest value of his offense. He’s got no business in center field, though that’s one of the positions where the Cardinals landed on my recent Replacement Level Killers list, and there is at least a natural platoon fit. In Edman’s absence, rookie Victor Scott II started the year in center but went just 5-for-59 before being sent down. Michael Siani, a lefty-swinging 25-year-old rookie, has done the bulk of the work since, hitting a meek .245/.284/.319 (73 wRC+) but playing stellar defense (12 FRV, 8 DRS, 6.1 UZR including his brief time at both outfield corners). He’s hit for a 44 wRC+ in 80 PA against lefties, so letting Pham take some starts there may not be the worst thing, defense be damned.

Trading Edman was reportedly part of the Cardinals’ attempt to remain payroll-neutral. In dealing him, however, they’ll miss the chance to shore up not only center field but also second base, where Nolan Gorman struggled to the point of making the Killers list.

In a separate post, Longenhagen has analysis of Gonzalez, a 17-year-old righty who’s currently in the Dominican Summer League, and goes into detail regarding the White Sox’s return, but here’s a thumbnail guide. The 24-year-old Vargas, who placed 48th on our Top 100 Prospects list in 2023, fizzled in half a season as a rookie last year before being exiled to Triple-A Oklahoma City. He’s hit .239/.313/.423 (108 wRC+) in 80 PA since returning from the minors in late May; where he played mainly second base last year, he’s been almost exclusively a left fielder this time around. The 19-year-old Albertus ranks 16th on the updated White Sox list as a 40-FV prospect. The 19-year-old Perez, meanwhile, has been reevaluated since he went unranked on the Dodgers Top Prospects list back in March, though he was included in the “Contact-Driven Profiles” section of the honorable mentions. He now carries a 40+ FV grade and is 12th on the updated White Sox list. Initial reports of the trade also included 21-year-old shortstop Noah Miller, but he was not actually part of the deal.

With less than 24 hours to go before the July 30 deadline, the odds are the none of the three teams in this trade are done. The Dodgers have taken a reasonable step to patching up an injury-created weakness while also find a successor for the Hernández/Taylor multiposition role (it’s tough to imagine either of those players on next year’s roster given their struggles); if Edman can provide league-average offense, he’s a boost. They’re still hunting for “an impact-type arm,” with the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet one pitcher who could fit the bill. The Cardinals are looking to improve their bullpen, as is every other contender. The White Sox still have Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. as big-ticket players to restock their system. We’ll see what awaits.

I updated the Top 100 Prospects list late last week; you can find the accompanying piece I wrote, which has a little more detail on the farm system rankings, recent draftees and the trade deadline, here. I also wrote about all the pitchers on the Top 100. This piece goes through the hitters and why they stack the way they do.

Basically every top position player prospect you’ll read about here is an unfinished product. The very top of the list currently lacks a flawless elite prospect; even the most talented players in the minors right now have adjustments to make or blemishes that might become more of an issue against big league pitching. As with the piece on pitchers, you’ll probably want the list open in a separate tab to follow along with my notes; I’ve got that here, with hitters isolated away from the arms. Read the rest of this entry »