The Toronto Blue Jays are headed to their first World Series since 1993 after defeating the Seattle Mariners 4-3 in a tense seventh game, thanks largely to yet another seismic postseason moment forged by the bat of George Springer. Three nights after he was laying in a heap at home plate, having been kneecapped by an errant mid-90s fastball, Springer added to his already legendary postseason résumé with a three-run home run against, ironically, another fastball tailing in the direction of his knees. The blast was a microcosm not only of Springer’s season (by wRC+ he posted the lone below-average offensive season of his career in 2024, and then set a career-best in 2025) but also of Toronto’s as a group, as the Jays led the majors in comeback wins during the year.

Julio Rodríguez cut the ribbon on Game 7 with a leadoff double, and came around to score a few batters later when Josh Naylor ripped a single just beyond the outstretched glove of a diving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Thereafter, Seattle’s first-inning rally was stemmed by one of the weirder double plays you’ll ever see, as Naylor did a 180 leap into Ernie Clement’s throw to first base and, after discussion, the umpires decided to rule both runners out, Naylor on the force and batter Jorge Polanco via Naylor’s interference.

Toronto responded with a run of its own in the bottom of the first. A Springer leadoff walk and a Guerrero single (it was fortunate for the Mariners that Guerrero’s 110-mph hit was only a base hit) set the table for an eventual Daulton Varsho RBI knock, but after that, Seattle controlled most of the game. Read the rest of this entry »

In his first postseason since signing a 14-year, $500 million extension, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has powered the Blue Jays to within one win of their first trip to the World Series since 1993. The 26-year-old slugger continued his October heroics during Sunday night’s ALCS Game 6 in Toronto, helping the Blue Jays stave of elimination at the hands of the Mariners by clubbing his third home run of the series and sixth of the postseason while also displaying a key bit of baserunning savvy. Guerrero has rebounded from a season-ending slump to put up some absolutely astronomical numbers this fall.

Sunday night’s game didn’t start out that way for Guerrero. As they had done in Games 1 and 2 in Toronto, and Game 5 in Seattle, the Mariners kept him from doing major damage through his first two plate appearances against starter Logan Gilbert. In the first inning, with Nathan Lukes on first, Guerrero chased a low slider and grounded softly into a forceout. In the second, with the Blue Jays having rallied for two runs and with George Springer on first, he hit a scorching 116-mph grounder to the left side, where third baseman Eugenio Suárez made a diving stop, then threw to second from his knees to end the inning.

That 116-mph exit velocity was Guerrero’s hardest-hit ball of the postseason, and the eighth-hardest contact of any player this fall; the other seven, by the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Schwarber, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge, all went for hits. No such luck for Vladito. Read the rest of this entry »

Facing elimination in Game 6 of the ALCS, the Blue Jays were right where they wanted to be. Back in Rogers Centre, where they had the best home record in the majors during the regular season, the Jays defeated the Mariners 6-2 on Sunday night to force a decisive Game 7. On the other side, looking at an opportunity to advance to the World Series for the first time in franchise history, Seattle was wholly unprepared to meet the moment. The Mariners committed three errors, grounded into three inning-ending double plays, and just couldn’t keep up with Toronto’s relentless offense.

Trey Yesavage, making just his sixth start in the big leagues and second in this series, held the Mariners to two runs in 5 2/3 innings. His splitter was particularly nasty; he threw 31 on Sunday, the most he’s thrown in a big league start so far. He earned 10 whiffs on 17 swings (a 59% whiff rate) with that tumbling offspeed pitch and induced two critical double plays with it in back-to-back innings.

In the third inning, after the Jays had scored two, the Mariners quickly built an opportunity to strike back. J.P. Crawford walked to start the inning, and after Dominic Canzone struck out, Leo Rivas lofted a 360-foot single off the top of the right-center wall. Crawford misread the fly ball and remained too close to first base, so by the time center fielder Daulton Varsho played the carom and fired back into the infield, Crawford had only advanced to second base, meaning Rivas had to hold up at first. Instead of having two runners in scoring position with one out and the top of the order coming up, the bad baserunning had put the Mariners in a textbook double play situation. Nevertheless, after Julio Rodríguez walked to load the bases, it looked like Cal Raleigh, whose 57.7% fly ball rate was the highest in the majors this season, would at least be able to lift a sacrifice fly to get the Mariners on the board. But Yesavage buckled down, turned to his trusty splitter, and got Raleigh to ground into an inning-ending double play on the first pitch of the at-bat. Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Burrows was rated as having the best curveball in the Pittsburgh Pirates system when I talked to him to for our old Learning and Developing a Pitch series back in 2022. Then a highly-regarded prospect, the 25-year-old right-hander relied heavily on his hook, a pitch that Eric Longenhagen assigned a 70 on the scouting scale and described as having “devastating bite and depth.” Our lead prospect analyst referred to it as his “meal ticket.”

Burrows is now a bona fide big-leaguer, but not because of a bender. Pitching in his first full MLB season — he made one appearance in 2024 — Burrows threw his erstwhile go-to just 11.9% of the time while logging a 3.94 ERA and a 24.1% strikeout rate over 96 innings. He’s evolved into split-change artist. Burrows threw what has become his most-used secondary pitch at a 23.7% clip this year. Moreover, he did so to the tune of a .147 BAA, a .220 slug, and a 43.1% whiff rate.

Why and how did he go from a killer curveball to a bat-missing splitter variant?
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The Dodgers beat the Brewers by a final score of 5-1 on Friday night, securing a sweep of the NLCS and advancing to the World Series for the second consecutive year. If you just look at the scoreline and the sweep, you might think that this game was devoid of interest. I won’t lie to you – it was definitely not as dramatic as the wild Mariners-Blue Jays game from earlier in the night, and that series has had far more twists and turns than this one. But forget the lopsided final score, and forget the lopsided series. Friday night was a show – or, I should say, a Sho.

Shohei Ohtani made his second start on the mound of the playoffs, and after a leadoff walk to Brice Turang, he looked every bit the impossible, ace-plus-slugger hybrid we’ve come to expect. His stuff was sharp tonight, with his fastball scraping triple digits and his vicious sweeper up several ticks but maintaining its ludicrous movement. That leadoff walk didn’t even phase him; he took a deep breath, a few paces on the mound, and then turned Jackson Chourio into a cardboard cutout. Biting sweeper, two increasingly diving sliders, with Chourio taking an emergency hack to stay alive, and then a 100.3 mph fastball, pumped right through the zone, to remind everyone that, yeah, this Ohtani guy can spin it.

The next batter, Christian Yelich, got ahead in the count 2-0; Ohtani regrouped with an outrageous flotilla of sliders (90 mph), cutters (95), and fastballs (100) on the low-and-away corner that eventually flummoxed Yelich into a called strikeout. William Contreras? Thanks for entering the batter’s box, sir, better luck next time. Ohtani struck him out on three pitches, the last two of which were demonically breaking sweepers that weren’t even in the same zip code as Contreras’ bat. Then Ohtani sprinted off the mound and disappeared into the dugout. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners and Blue Jays came into Game 5 of the American League Championship Series knowing a five-hour flight lay in their future. What they didn’t know was which team would have a happy flight from Seattle to Toronto and which team would spend the time in the air stewing. It took a long while to figure it out. It wasn’t until the eighth inning that Seattle third baseman Eugenio Suárez finally decided to take matters into his own hands. With a two-homer, five-RBI performance, including a go-ahead grand slam in that decisive frame, Suárez powered the Mariners to a 6-2 win. They now have a 3-2 lead in the series, leaving them one win from the first World Series appearance in franchise history. They will no doubt slumber peacefully as they wing their way to Toronto for Game 6 on Sunday.

Both managers were looking to mix things up on Friday. Toronto’s John Schneider mentioned in both the pregame and postgame press conferences that he wanted to avoid the familiarity penalty by making sure his relievers didn’t face the same batters over and over again. On the other side, Dan Wilson rejiggered his lineup with the goal of “just kind of jumbling it up and creating a different look.” He moved Julio Rodríguez into the leadoff spot, dropped the struggling Randy Arozarena to fifth, kept Cal Raleigh in the two-hole, and pushed Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor up to third and fourth. Suárez, struggling just as badly as Arozarena with a .162 batting average in the postseason, stayed in the sixth spot.

Friday’s contest featured a pitching rematch of Game 1 between Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller, when the two starters combined for just three earned runs over a combined 11 2/3 innings. They allowed even fewer runs on Friday. Their two approaches couldn’t have been different. Gausman avoided the top half of the zone at all costs, looking to induce chases on splitters that dived below the zone and earn called strikes on four-seamers that held their plane. Miller threw some splitters of his own, but he attacked with fastballs at and above the top of the zone. He also pitched with abandon. With ace Bryan Woo in the bullpen ready to pitch for the first time since September 19 due to pectoral inflammation, Miller emptied the tank. Both his fastballs averaged roughly 2 mph above their regular season marks. The starters picked up right where they left off in Game 1, facing four hitters apiece in the first inning and pitching around doubles to the opposing lineup’s big star. Miller touched 98 mph, struck out two and gave up a double to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., while Gausman rode his trademark splitter and allowed his own double to Raleigh. Read the rest of this entry »

You could be forgiven for having thought that Max Scherzer had reached the end of the line. For the second season in a row, the three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer missed significant time due to injuries, and when he was available, he struggled like never before. The 41-year-old righty put up the majors’ highest ERA in the first inning (12.96), had issues with tipping pitches, and after allowing 25 runs in his final 25 innings, missed the cut for the Division Series roster. Yet on Thursday, with the Blue Jays trailing the Mariners two games to one in the ALCS, Scherzer turned back the clock, holding Seattle to just two runs over 5 2/3 innings while an aggressive offense chased Mariners starter Luis Castillo in the third inning. With Andrés Giménez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both homering for the second straight night, the Blue Jays won 8-2 to even the series.

Scherzer, who had last pitched in a game on September 24, added to the Mad Max lore, displaying his legendarily competitive fire in the fifth inning. With two outs, a runner on first base and Toronto leading 5-1, manager John Schneider went to the mound to talk to Scherzer, who growled and chased the skipper away, struck out Randy Arozarena on a curveball in the dirt, then retired two batters in the sixth before finally getting the hook.

“I’ve been waiting for that all year, for Max to yell at me on the mound,” said Schneider afterwards. “It was awesome, I thought he was going to kill me.” Read the rest of this entry »

Well, that was fun while it lasted.

Home-field advantage has been a bit of a booby prize this postseason, with the home team losing all five LCS games heading into Thursday evening’s action. The Dodgers’ Game 3 starter, Tyler Glasnow, is arguably the closest thing this rotation has to a weak link. So maybe the Brewers weren’t as dead as the series standings made it seem. Win one and you’re back in it.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, and for neutrals hoping for this series to go six or seven exciting games, that wasn’t in the cards. The Dodgers put a run on the board within their first two batters of the game, and while Milwaukee tied it the next inning, Glasnow shut the door afterward. A couple singles, a walk, and a throwing error in the sixth inning were all the Dodgers needed to win the game, 3-1, and take a 3-0 lead in the series. You already know what the odds are at this point. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve got some terrible news for you. The crime rate is way down. I know that sounds like it should be good news, but when it comes to baseball, it’s just boring. Nobody’s stealing any bases during the playoffs (except for Randy Arozarena and, of course, Josh Naylor). The 34 total playoff games have seen just 26 steals on 35 total attempts. That’s 0.51 attempts per team per game, a huge drop-off from a regular season that averaged 0.91. The Blue Jays and Dodgers have combined for just two steals on two attempts. Boring.

On its own, that doesn’t seem too surprising. This is the fourth year in a row that teams have attempted fewer steals per game in the playoffs than in the regular season. The reasons behind this are easy enough to understand. First, we have a logistical hurdle. Runs are harder to come by during the playoffs. This year, we’ve seen 4.45 runs per team game during the regular season and just 4.02 during the playoffs. On-base percentage is down 11 points, which means fewer baserunners and fewer stolen base opportunities to start with. Next, we’ve got the risk aversion angle. Those baserunners are a more precious commodity at a time when the stakes are at their highest. Running into an out on the bases is a very loud unforced error, the kind of thing you get roasted for in the papers the next morning. It’s a lot harder to see how much potential value you’re leaving on the table by just staying put. I feel confident that I’ve never read an article roasting a player for not trying to steal.

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SEATTLE — There’s an age-old question among pitching philosophers. Should an approach focus more on the pitcher’s strengths or the hitter’s weaknesses? In my experience, pitchers do not ask themselves this question, though. They almost always prefer to pitch to their own strengths. They might tweak their strategy if a hitter has an obvious and exploitable weakness that they feel comfortable attacking, but mostly they’d rather stick to what they do best.

But what happens when what a pitcher does best aligns perfectly with what his opponent does best? When it’s not just that he’s ignoring the hitter’s weakness, but that he’s also pitching to the hitter’s strength? Game 3 of the ALCS between the Mariners and the Blue Jays gave us a data point to consider when answering that question. Toronto walked away with a 13-4 victory in Seattle to cut the Mariners’ series lead to 2-1, and did so by sticking to its strengths in the batter’s box. Read the rest of this entry »