Archive for Guardians

The American League Championship Series between the Rays and Guardians was a study in contrasts when it came to starting pitching, particularly as the series extended. Tampa Bay’s starters lasted five or more innings in all but one of the six games, with Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta combining for three starts of at least six innings; the former went seven innings and the latter 5 1/3 in the the final two games. Cleveland’s starters reached the five-inning mark just twice and never went deeper than that; over the final three games, the team’s starters — ace Parker Messick and reliever Shawn Armstrong, who was deputized to open Games 4 and 6 — totaled just four innings. Given that imbalance, it was hardly a surprise that the Rays rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win those three and take the series.

The World Series might present a similar contrast. The Rays and the Yankees are the only teams whose starters have averaged at least five innings per turn during this postseason, and Tampa Bay knocked off New York in a Division Series sweep earlier this month. Meanwhile, the Brewers are one of five teams whose starters have averaged less than four innings per turn; only twice did a Milwaukee starter even last five innings, with Logan Henderson reaching that mark in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres and Robert Gasser doing so in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. Jacob Misiorowski — the likely NL Cy Young winner, who even before the playoffs had already exceeded his total workload from last year by more than 30 innings — burned through 88 pitches to complete four innings in his NLDS start and 94 to go 4 1/3 in his NLCS start. For the Brewers and Rays, those divergent approaches have worked. Tampa Bay went a combined 7-2 in the ALDS and ALCS; Milwaukee, 7-1 in the NLDS and NLCS.

After a season in which he ranked third in the AL in FIP (2.81) and WAR (5.0) and fourth in ERA (2.67), Rasmussen began his postseason by no-hitting the Yankees for 7 2/3 innings in the Division Series opener. In three starts totaling 21 innings, he’s delivered a 1.29 ERA and a 2.58 FIP. Peralta, who struggled during his four months as a Met before righting himself somewhat as a Ray following a deadline deal, has put up a 1.13 ERA and a 3.72 FIP in 16 innings as a starter, on top of which he added two-thirds of an inning out of the bullpen in ALCS Game 4; that cherry on top of his two strong starts helped him win series MVP honors. While their third and fourth starters, Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax, haven’t been as effective, the Rays’ postseason rotation ERA is good enough to crack the top 10 dating back to the start of division play in 1969:

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After a dominant run through the American League East this year, the Tampa Bay Rays have punched their ticket to the World Series. Down 2-1 in the ALCS, they reeled off two straight wins in Cleveland over the weekend to take a 3-2 lead back home. And with a chance to put the series away, following a wild weekend of rain, rescheduling, and bullpen games as far as the eye could see, the Rays rose to the occasion, jumping all over the Guardians early and tacking on late to cruise to a 7-3 Game 6 win on Monday night. It was a comprehensive victory for the top seed in the American League, and it showed off their ability to do whatever is needed to win, whether it’s one-upping the opposition at their own game or putting a contest to bed with late-inning power.

Cleveland is a club that needs to make the most out of every opportunity to outscore its opponents. The team’s much-ballyhooed “Guards Ball” style depends a lot on a dominant pitching staff and a little on turning balls in play into baserunners, pressure, and eventually runs. But time and again on Monday, the Rays were the Guardians’ match when it came to the small plays that can flip the game – and they showed off an extra gear when push came to shove. Time and time again, they turned the Guardians away in big moments and extended the lead when they got their own chances.

One sequence was emblematic of the night: In the top of the fourth inning, the Guardians staged an all-too-rare rally against Freddy Peralta. Jo Adell led off the inning with a roped line drive double. Nathaniel Lowe battled back from 0-2 to draw a walk. After a fly out, Patrick Bailey came up and chopped a grounder over Peralta’s head. It was the kind of ball that could rattle around and lead to chaos. But Taylor Walls was having absolutely none of it. He rampaged across second, waved Richie Palacios out of the way, and snared the ball at a full sprint, headed directly toward Lowe, who panicked and slammed on the brakes, but to no avail. Walls ran him down, brushed a tag as Lowe fell out of the basepath, and fired to first to complete a double play. What might have been a big inning instead ended without a run scoring. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’ve been following the postseason closely, you probably know why every Guardians player celebrates a single by turning to their dugout and flashing their teammates a thumbs down. “When a Guardians hitter notches a single, he stands on first base, peers toward the dugout and flashes either two thumbs up or two thumbs down, depending on how hard he struck the ball.” That’s how The Athletic’s Zack Meisel described the celebration back in July, in an article documenting the remarkable way that Steven Kwan was turning things around after a dismal start to the season.

The celebration is actually more specific than that, though. The Guardians aren’t just indicating whether they hit the ball hard. They’re indicating whether it met Statcast’s official threshold for a hard-hit ball. Travis Bazzana explained the premise to some sort of FanDuel-affiliated Instagram influencer at the All-Star Game back in July:

“Yeah, so it’s funny. When you hit it hard, if you hit it over 95 mph, you’re supposed to give a thumbs up. And if you hit it a little soft, like dink hit or groundball, it’s a thumbs down. The joke in today’s game is you want to hit the ball hard, you want to hit the ball in the air. And so it’s like, ‘Oh it’s a bad hit if I hit it soft.’ It’s kind of a funny joke.”

If you’re wondering why Bazzana felt the need to bookend the explanation with avowals that the joke was indeed funny, it’s because he delivered it with all the enthusiasm of a recently dissected frog. Clearly, life has taught Bazzana that if he wants someone to pick up on the fact that he’s telling them a joke, he’ll need to say so explicitly both at the beginning and end of that particular instance of hilarity. I would love to see him attempt stand-up comedy. Read the rest of this entry »

The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from their third trip to the World Series. After pulling away from the Cleveland Guardians late in Game 4 for a 7-3 victory, the Rays scored a run in each of the first three innings of Game 5. While they left six men on base over that span, they forced Guardians ace Parker Messick to work so hard that he lasted just two innings, and because the game remained within reach, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt called upon four of his best relievers to record four outs or more. Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen stifled the Guardians, holding them to one run on four hits over seven innings, and a trio of relievers shut the door for a 3-1 victory and a three-games-to-two series lead. The series now heads back to St. Petersburg, and because the travel day was erased by Friday night’s rainout, the Rays will have the opportunity to clinch the pennant at home on Monday night.

For as great a rookie season as Messick had, the 25-year-old lefty has been anything but dominant during the postseason. He lasted five innings in just one of his three previous starts while putting up a 4.13 FIP and 5.25 xERA to go with a comparatively tidy 3.09 ERA in 11.2 innings. If a 15.1% walk rate, more than double his regular season mark of 6.6%, has been the primary culprit, his previous workload may be a contributing factor as well. Messick ranked fourth in the American League with 186.1 innings — the most of any rookie since 2012 — and with his postseason work prior to Sunday, he had pushed his odometer to 198 frames, up from a combined 138.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2025.

After pairing Messick with backup catcher Austin Hedges for all but one of his starts in 2026 — David Fry caught the first three innings of his September 27 outing — Vogt called upon Patrick Bailey instead… on the basis of his offense. That’s an odd thing to say about a catcher with a career 75 wRC+, and an anemic .146/.213/.183 line when he was traded from the Giants in May, but the 27-year-old backstop has been a credible threat at the plate since joining the Guardians, and he entered Sunday having hit .333/.379/.556 (163 wRC+) during the postseason, with a homer and a single off Rasmussen in Game 1. Said Vogt before the game, “With the way Patty is swinging the bat, [I] just wanted to keep his bat in the lineup, and you know, obviously there is some risk. There’s some concern with Patty never having caught Parker. But you know what? If I’m going to trust two human beings to go out and navigate a game, it’s Parker and Patty.” Read the rest of this entry »

Dax Kilby is among the higher-profile prospects currently honing his skills in the Arizona Fall League. A 19-year-old shortstop whom the New York Yankees drafted 39th overall last year out of a Georgia high school, he ranks third in the Bombers system and No. 103 on The Board. Making up for missed time is part of why Kilby is in the desert. As Eric Longenhagen explained in his AFL preview, the 50 FV prospect dealt with a severe hamstring injury for much of 2026. He has shown promise with when healthy. This season, Kilby slashed a solid .242/.427/.403 with a 143 wRC+ over 154 plate appearances with Low-A Tampa.

How does the youngster view his early-career acclimation to pro ball?

“As I didn’t go to college, I’m seeing a lot better pitching,” Kilby told me on AFL media day. “I think that reveals a lot about who you are as a hitter. My first year, I was hitting a lot of ground balls [a 54.4% rate across 58 PAs] and using my speed to my advantage. That was definitely a change from high school, where the pitching isn’t as good and you can get into balls more often, for more power.”

Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski are both bullish on Kilby’s potential to do damage going forward. Addressing the 6-foot-2, 190-pound lefty swinger’s quick hands in his recent scouting notebook, Gawlowski wrote that “the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.”

Kilby worked on mechanical changes in the weeks leading up to the AFL season. As he explained, the Yankees have him starting narrower and more open, the objective being two-fold: (1) allowing him to be more adjustable to different pitches, and (2) getting him more into his back hip, increasing the number of balls he is driving in the air. While his 40.2 GB% this year was an improvement from 2025’s pro-debut, it was still far from optimal.

Radically alternating his stroke isn’t part of the equation. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re keeping score at home, the ALCS has now gone back and forth twice. On a frigid Saturday night in Cleveland, Tampa Bay’s big bats finally woke up. The Rays beat the Guardians, 7-3, to win Game 4 and even the series at 2-2. The game was originally scheduled for Friday night, but pouring rain destroyed that plan. The low temperature and a light west-southwest breeze kept multiple would-be homers in the ballpark, and the rain-soaked grass slowed down balls in the outfield. However, it didn’t stop the Rays from scoring more than three runs for the first time in the series. The Rays were more aggressive than the Guardians in terms of asking their best arms to get big outs. They countered a Cleveland bullpen game with a surprising amount of starting pitching, and they got big performances from Yandy Díaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda. The series is now guaranteed to end in St. Petersburg.

Both teams had the option to adjust their pitching plans after the rain banged Friday night’s game. The Rays could have thrown their ace, Drew Rasmussen on regular rest, rather than scheduled starter Nick Martinez. However, they knew they still would have needed Martinez later in the series, and it made sense for manager Kevin Cash to stick with his plan. Things were more complicated for Guardians manager Stephen Vogt.

With none of his most trusted starters available on normal rest on Friday, Vogt had no choice but to plan on a bullpen game, even though his bullpen was overworked. The postponement gave his relievers a much-needed game of rest. It also gave him the opportunity to hand the ball back to Game 1 starter Foster Griffin. Getting some length from Griffin would have been huge, because the postponement meant that if the series went seven games, the teams would play four games in a row, once again taxing the bullpen. However, Vogt stuck with opener Shawn Armstrong, and was cagey with reporters before the game when asked whether Griffin would pitch. It seemed like his plan for cobbling together nine innings was very contingent on how the game unfolded. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the great underrated joys of baseball is a competitive best-of-seven series that ends in five games. Think the 2024 World Series, when the only game the Dodgers lost was also the only game that was decided by more than three runs. The series scoreboard suggests that it was lopsided, but the individual games were absolutely riveting.

Even more overlooked is the enthralling four-game sweep, which is so rare that we are morally obligated to appreciate it when we see one. For that reason, it is my duty as a baseball writer to marvel at the NLCS that just transpired, when the Brewers came from behind in each of the four games to topple the dynastic Dodgers. Michael Baumann covered the series in Milwaukee and Los Angeles, and you should definitely check out his writing on the action if you haven’t already.

In this week’s mailbag, we’re putting together the best all-time roster of players who’ve never played in the World Series, and considering whether they’d beat an All-Star team from the clubs in this year’s Championship Series. We’re also answering your questions on what would happen if hit-by-pitches were treated as regular balls, and 1-0 games that feature a first-pitch home run. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

When Petey Halpin hit a home run to lift the Cleveland Guardians to a 3-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays in yesterday’s ALCS Game 3, it came as a surprise to many. That’s understandable. Coming into October, the 24-year-old outfielder had left the yard just four times in 203 major league plate appearances. Moreover, his career wRC+ was a paltry 69, and as Eric Longenhagen wrote back in May of last year, “Halpin has tracked like a future fifth outfielder for practically his entire pro career based largely on his speed and defense.” A power hitter he is not.

That said, he’s by no means devoid of juice. Not only did Halpin hammer 14 home runs with Triple-A Columbus last season — a career best since being selected in the third round of the 2020 draft — our lead prospect analyst recognized his under-the-radar thump when ranking him 13th in the Guardians system in 2022. Eric noted that, “Though he’s wiry and skinny looking, Halpin has sneaky pop.”

Cleveland’s unexpected Game 3 hero smiled appreciatively when I told him of Eric’s assessment during the final week of the regular season. He had hit an impactful home run just two weeks prior — more on that in a moment — so I asked him about his potential to provide more power than he has thus far displayed in The Show. Read the rest of this entry »

The ALCS opened in Cleveland for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon, with the game time moved up five hours to account for the threat of heavy rain in the forecast. All that extra time turned out to be unneeded, however, as the Guardians dispatched the Rays 3-2 in a briskly played game to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Gavin Williams got the start in Game 3 and was perfect in all but one of his five innings of work. That lone blemish, coming in the fourth, temporarily put the Rays on top before Pummelin’ Petey Halpin gave Cleveland the lead for good an inning later. From that point onward, both bullpens worked so efficiently that it seemed as if there was more time spent on commercials for toothpaste and premium dishwasher pods than baseball.

There may be no hotter pitcher in baseball right now than the 27-year-old Williams, coming off starts of 11 and 12 strikeouts against the White Sox in the ALDS. The Rays are a far better contact team than the White Sox, but the story was the same to start off the game, as he cruised through the first three innings, nine up, nine down with five strikeouts. Williams is one of the most aggressive starters in baseball when it comes to peppering breaking pitches against any batter, in any count, and Game 3 was definitely no exception. He threw only six fastballs total over the first three innings. Honorable mention for Nathaniel Lowe, who clipped the corner of the seats while catching a foul pop on the first play of the game and hung on for the out, just barely missing a painful blooper reel moment.

Making his first start of the playoffs, Rays right-hander Griffin Jax appeared to be consciously pitching around José Ramírez in the first inning, walking the Cleveland third baseman with one out. An aggressive base-stealing team, the Guardians ranked third in the American League with 146 stolen bases this year, with an 82% success rate that led the Junior Circuit. Ramírez, who led the team with 37 steals during the regular season, wasted little time trying to get into scoring position, taking off for second on the second pitch to three-hole hitter Chase DeLauter. He got a great jump and picked an offspeed pitch to run on, but Rays catcher Liam Hicks made an even better throw to the right side of the bag, tailing into the runner, where shortstop Taylor Walls applied a perfect tag. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a rough season for José Ramírez. After a sluggish start, the 34-year-old third baseman suffered a fractured left hamate that required surgery and knocked him out of action for nearly six weeks, then struggled so mightily upon returning that it took him nearly two months to barrel a ball. His bat showed some life in the second half of September as he helped the Guardians overtake the White Sox in the AL Central race, and with his team pushed to the brink of elimination in the Division Series against those same White Sox, he collected four extra-base hits and drove in eight runs over the final three games, most notably golfing a two-run homer off Sean Burke to provide all the scoring Cleveland would need in Game 5. After more heroics in the ALCS opener against the Rays, however, his costly error on Tuesday night helped Tampa Bay even the series.

Ramírez made his error during the fourth inning of a scoreless game, and while it was the only play scored an error, it was hardly the Guardians’ only miscue in that frame. After Parker Messick issued a leadoff walk to Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa Jr. hit a potential double-play grounder to second baseman Travis Bazzana, who tossed to shortstop Brayan Rocchio for the force out. Rocchio’s throw at first base was high enough to pull Nathaniel Lowe off the bag, and while Mesa was initially called out, the call was overturned when the Rays challenged it (the Rays also challenged the out at second, but that was upheld).

After Messick struck out Jonny DeLuca, Chandler Simpson hit a high chopper to Rocchio, who unhesitatingly fired to first base. Simpson beat the throw, while Mesa motored around second base and alertly took third because Ramírez had ranged so far to his left. Ben Williamson then hit a grounder whose second hop took an odd bounce off the edge of the turf in front of Ramírez; instead of winding up in his glove, it squirted through his legs and into left field as Mesa scored the game’s first run, with Simpson taking third and Williamson second. Liam Hicks plated them both on a single into right-center, giving the Rays a 3-0 lead. The three unearned runs were all the scoring the Rays would need in a 3-1 victory. Read the rest of this entry »