Archive for Marlins

Dan Straily Can Generate Solid Value With This Pitch

Some baseball players are good at everything (looking at you, Mike Trout) and some aren’t good at much (looking at you, Chris Davis, though you did used to be good), but most fall somewhere in the middle. Generally, the average major league player has one or two attributes that make them special and one or two attributes that the opposing hitter or pitcher can attack. That’s just how most populations work; the bell curve exists for a reason. Not everyone can be in the 99th percentile, though it would be fun to see an entire league of Mike Trouts. (But then everyone would be in the 50th percentile, so there’s no real winner here anyway.)

Nonetheless, this idea of one or two special attributes gets me to my main point. On Monday, the Marlins released right-handed pitcher Dan Straily in a move that was something of a surprise. Miami isn’t looking to contend this year, and at a minimum, Straily could have been a decent innings eater for them. Like many other teams, the Marlins are opting to roll with younger players; the average age of their starting rotation is just 27 years old, though at 30, Straily wouldn’t have had the most grey hairs on the staff. That title belongs to Wei-Yin Chen, who the Marlins still owe $42 million over the next two seasons.

Straily is now looking for a new home, and unfortunately, it’s at an inopportune time with Opening Day today. Still, Straily has had a decent seven-year career, reaching a career-high in WAR (2.1) in 181.2 innings as recently as 2017. Last year he made 23 starts, posting a 4.12 ERA and a 5.11 FIP over 122.1 innings. His 19.1 K% and a 10.0 BB% weren’t awful, though both marks were below league-average for a starting pitcher. Putting all of this together, he was worth just 0.1 WAR.

Does this mean that Straily has no positive attributes? Absolutely not. In fact, there is a lot to like about his profile. Well, two thing in particular: he’s really good at generating spin on his fastball (70th percentile), and he throws a potentially deadly changeup. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1351: Season Preview Series: Yankees and Marlins

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Mariners-A’s opening series, the emotional last game featuring Ichiro Suzuki, and the uncertain degree to which the recent rash of contract extensions reflects players’ anxiety about free agency, then preview the 2019 New York Yankees (38:17) with The Athletic’s Yankees beat writer, Lindsey Adler, and the 2019 Miami Marlins (1:14:31) with The Athletic’s Marlins beat writer, Andre Fernandez.

Audio intro: Built to Spill, "Some Things Last a Long Time"
Audio interstitial 1: The Black Angels, "Empire"
Audio interstitial 2: Animal Collective, "Derek"
Audio outro: Fairport Convention, "Farewell, Farewell"

Link to video of Ichiro leaving his last game
Link to Jeff’s post about extensions
Link to Craig Edwards on extensions
Link to Sam on Marlins trades
Link to Andre on the Marlins’ young pitching
Link to Ben’s On Baseball Writing appearance
Link to Banished To The Pen’s team preview posts
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Picks to Click: Who We Expect to Make the 2020 Top 100

When publishing our lists — in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock are we buying? This post represents our best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.

This is the second year that we’re doing this, and we have some new rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. So while we think Austin Hays might have a bounce back year and be a 50 FV again, we’re not allowed to include him here; you already know about him. We also forbid ourselves from using players who were on last year’s inaugural list. (We were right about 18 of the 63 players last year, a 29% hit rate, though we have no idea if that’s good or not, as it was our first time engaging in the exercise.) At the end of the piece, we have a list of potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year. They’re unlikely to ever be a 50 FV or better because of their role, but they often have a sizable impact on competitive clubs, and readers seemed to like that we had that category last year.

We’ve separated this year’s players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible, and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own with THE BOARD. For players who we’ve already covered this offseason, we included a link to the team lists, where you can find a full scouting report. We touch briefly on the rest of the names in this post. Here are our picks to click:

Teenage Pitchers
Torres was young for his draft class, is a plus athlete, throws really hard, and had surprisingly sharp slider command all last summer. White looked excellent in the fall when the Rangers finally allowed their high school draftees to throw. He sat 92-94, and his changeup and breaking ball were both above-average. Pardinho and Woods Richardson are the two advanced guys in this group. Thomas is the most raw but, for a someone who hasn’t been pitching for very long, he’s already come a long way very quickly.

Eric Pardinho, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Lenny Torres, Jr., RHP, Cleveland Indians
Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, New York Mets (full report)
Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Owen White, RHP, Texas Rangers
Mason Denaburg, RHP, Washington Nationals (full report)
Tahnaj Thomas, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (full report)

The “This is What They Look Like” Group
If you like big, well-made athletes, this list is for you. Rodriguez was physically mature compared to his DSL peers and also seems like a mature person. The Mariners have indicated they’re going to send him right to Low-A this year. He could be a middle-of-the-order, corner outfield power bat. Luciano was the Giants’ big 2018 July 2 signee. He already has huge raw power and looks better at short than he did as an amateur. Canario has elite bat speed. Adams was signed away from college football but is more instinctive than most two-sport athletes. Most of the stuff he needs to work on is related to getting to his power.

Julio Rodriguez, RF, Seattle Mariners
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Alexander Canario, RF, San Francisco Giants
Jordyn Adams, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Jhon Torres, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Shervyen Newton, SS, New York Mets (full report)
Kevin Alcantara, CF, New York Yankees (full report)
Freudis Nova, SS, Houston Astros
Brice Turang, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (full report)
Connor Scott, CF, Miami Marlins (full report)

Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value
This is the group that produces the likes of Vidal Brujan and Luis Urias. Edwards is a high-effort gamer with 70 speed and feel for line drive contact. Marcano isn’t as stocky and strong as X, but he too has innate feel for contact, and could be a plus middle infield defender. Perez has great all-fields contact ability and might be on an Andres Gimenez-style fast track, where he reaches Double-A at age 19 or 20. Ruiz is the worst defender on this list, but he has all-fields raw power and feel for contact. He draws Alfonso Soriano comps. Palacios is the only college prospect listed here. He had three times as many walks as strikeouts at Towson last year. Rosario controls the zone well, is fast, and is a plus defender in center field.

Xavier Edwards, SS, San Diego Padres
Antoni Flores, SS, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Jose Devers, SS, Miami Marlins (full report)
Tucupita Marcano, SS, San Diego Padres
Wenceel Perez, SS, Detroit Tigers
Esteury Ruiz, 2B, San Diego Padres
Richard Palacios, SS, Cleveland Indians
Antonio Cabello, CF, New York Yankees (full report)
Cole Roederer, LF, Chicago Cubs (full report)
Jeisson Rosario, CF, San Diego Padres
Luis Garcia, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)
Simon Muzziotti, CF, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)

Corner Power Bats
Nevin will probably end up as a contact-over-power first baseman, but he might also end up with a 70 bat. He looked great against Fall League pitching despite having played very little as a pro due to injury. Lavigne had a lot of pre-draft helium and kept hitting after he signed. He has all-fields power. Apostel saw reps at first during instructs but has a good shot to stay at third. He has excellent timing and explosive hands.

Grant Lavigne, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Sherten Apostel, 3B, Texas Rangers
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Dylan Carlson, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Moises Gomez, RF, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Elehuris Montero, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Tyler Nevin, 1B, Colorado Rockies

College-aged Pitchers
It’s hard to imagine any of these guys rocketing into the top 50 overall. Rather, we would anticipate that they end up in the 60-100 range on next year’s list. Gilbert was a workhorse at Stetson and his velo may spike with reshaped usage. Singer should move quickly because of how advanced his command is. Lynch’s pre-draft velocity bump held throughout the summer, and he has command of several solid secondaries. Abreu spent several years in rookie ball and then had a breakout 2018, forcing Houston to 40-man him to protect him from the Rule 5. He’ll tie Dustin May for the second-highest breaking ball spin rate on THE BOARD when the Houston list goes up. We’re intrigued by what Dodgers player dev will do with an athlete like Gray. Phillips throws a ton of strikes and has a good four-pitch mix.

Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Zac Lowther, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Brady Singer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Bryan Abreu, RHP, Houston Astros
Daniel Lynch, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Wil Crowe, RHP, Washington Nationals (full report)
Josiah Gray, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Holloway, RHP, Miami Marlins (full report)
Tyler Phillips, RHP, Texas Rangers

Bounce Back Candidates
The Dodgers have a strong track record of taking severely injured college arms who return with better stuff after a long period of inactivity. That could be Grove, their 2018 second rounder, who missed most of his sophomore and junior seasons at West Virginia. McCarthy was also hurt during his junior season and it may have obscured his true abilities. Burger is coming back from multiple Achilles ruptures, but was a strong college performer with power before his tire blew.

Michael Grove, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jake McCarthy, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jake Burger, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Thomas Szapucki, LHP, New York Mets (full report)

Catchers
We’re very excited about the current crop of minor league catchers. Naylor is athletic enough that he’s likely to improve as a defender and he has rare power for the position.

Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Indians
Payton Henry, C, Milwaukee Brewers (full report)

Potentially Dominant Relievers
These names lean “multi-inning” rather than “closer.” Gonsolin was a two-way player in college who has been the beneficiary of sound pitch design. He started last year but was up to 100 mph out of the bullpen the year before. He now throws a four seamer rather than a sinker and he developed a nasty splitter in 2017. He also has two good breaking balls. He has starter stuff but may break in as a reliever this year.

Trent Thornton, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Dakota Hudson, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Colin Poche, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Trevor Stephan, RHP, New York Yankees (full report)
Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (full report)
Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago Cubs (full report)
Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mauricio Llovera, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)


Phillies Acquire Great Catcher in Exchange for Mystery Box

Everyone is waiting for the Phillies to sign one of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. It seems almost inevitable that the Phillies will sign one of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. There’s some chance it even happens today! Who knows? But while the world has waited for the Phillies to signal that they’re going for it, they’ve already added a new everyday outfielder in Andrew McCutchen. They’ve already added a new everyday shortstop in Jean Segura. They’ve already added a new late-inning reliever in David Robertson. And now they’ve added a new regular catcher.

Phillies get:

Marlins get:

And so ends the drawn-out, months-long Realmuto sweepstakes, that saw him connected to a couple handfuls of teams. Just last week, I thought Realmuto was going to be traded to the Reds. The Phillies came almost out of nowhere. But, like the Reds, they’ve spent the offseason acting aggressively, and I can’t imagine they’re finished. The NL Central is going to be a hell of a division. And, the NL East is going to be a hell of a division. The Marlins are going to get beat up on the regular as a consequence, but then, they knew what they were getting into.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Argument for J.T. Realmuto as Baseball’s Best Catcher

It feels like, any minute now, J.T. Realmuto will officially be on the move. He might even get officially traded while I’m busy writing this article. According to the latest reports, Realmuto is likely to be dealt to the Phillies, in exchange for a package including Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro (plus more). I don’t know what might be left for the teams to overcome. Again, press releases seem almost inevitable. With Sanchez as the centerpiece, the Marlins ought to be satisfied.

If and when this reaches a resolution, it’ll mark the end of a drawn-out sweepstakes. Realmuto always seemed like baseball’s most probable trade candidate. As much as the Marlins have wanted to keep him around, a contract extension requires interest from both parties, and Realmuto has wanted out. So a trade was going to happen. A trade involving some manner of top prospect was going to happen. What we didn’t know was where Realmuto would ultimately end up. He’s now linked to the Phillies. He’s been linked to the Reds. He’s been linked to the Braves, and the Padres, and the Dodgers, and the Rays, and even more teams on top of that. A whole lot of baseball has wanted J.T. Realmuto.

So let’s talk about that for a few minutes. For many of you, this will be simple review. But, why has Realmuto been in such demand? It’s because he might well be the best catcher in the game.

Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins.

Batters

The lineup projections didn’t come out as poorly as I expected, though that may just mean I’m a particularly pessimistic individual. J.T. Realmuto is for real, of course, but that pretty little 3.6 WAR in the graphic may well be replaced with a WAR figure starting with a zero by the time the season actually starts. The effort to trade Realmuto has been a fascinating process, now going on for the better part of a year, with the team making noise that it would take a phenomenal offer for them to part with the catcher. Now, it could be interpreted as posturing, given that the team reportedly asked for the stars for the members of their Giancarlo Stanton/Christian Yelich/Marcell Ozuna outfield and settled for a moon pie. But I’m coming around to the idea that if Realmuto actually could be acquired for an ordinary package, he’d already be gone at this point. With the large-market teams continuing to display a real tendency to avoid spending, there may be a less willingness to part with a large pile of top prospects, those being needed to continue this cheap frugal strategy.

ZiPS isn’t yet impressed with Austin Dean, but outside of his modest projection, the only gaping wound — I’m still more optimistic than ZiPS on Brinson, though my cheerful good nature is dissipating — is at first base, where ZiPS projects the Marlins to have a worse first base situation than the Orioles do. Generally speaking, you’d like your first baseman to be above the Chris Davis Line. O’Brien did have a decent cameo appearance with the big league club, but he has a rather pedestrian minor league record and little defensive value. There’s one caveat though: O’Brien really did show far more patience than he ever had before in his brief stint in Miami, which is at least a good sign. He’s always had power and if his approach at the plate continues to be more scientific than his previous method of smashing lab equipment with a meteor hammer while blindfolded, perhaps he can make the computer look foolish.

There’s very little regression projected from Brian Anderson, which is also a positive note. Well, it’s positive if he does it; Anderson is one of the bigger disagreements ZiPS has with Steamer. If he can, it’ll improve the package the Marlins get in a trade when they’re required to pay Anderson something commensurate with his contributions!

One of the strangest rumors so far this offseason was the late buzz that the Marlins were interested in Nick Markakis. Markakis likely would have been a short-term upgrade over Dean, but it’s hard to see what the point would have been. Even if we accept for the sake of argument that fans will come out to see an additional win or two from a bad team, this is the Marlins we’re talking about. After so much ill will richly earned by the organization, they may be at the point where it takes something of a miracle to grow the fanbase; this isn’t a matter of winning 65 game instead of 64. Markakis has been safely returned to Atlanta, a destination that makes far more sense for him; the Marlins have safely returned to their paltry outfield projection.

Pitchers

The biggest positive here is Pablo Lopez, one of four players picked up from the Mariners in the David Phelps trade back in 2017. ZiPS doesn’t project a Luis Severino-esque breakout season for Lopez, but it does have him as a contributing, if fairly ordinary, starting pitcher. Even more, ZiPS has Lopez as the team’s best starting pitcher, and does so with an unusual level of certainty for a minor league pitcher of the non-elite variety.

Lopez is far from guaranteed a rotation spot in spring training, which strikes me as a mistake. If the team is actually serious about a full-on rebuild, rather than simply lurching from fire sale to fire sale to bide time between new ballparks, it’s important to see as much of pitchers like Lopez, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Caleb Smith as possible.

There’s unlikely to be much of a market for Wei-Yin Chen or Dan Straily no matter how long you “showcase” them. There are only so many roster spots and it will be harder to give pitchers like Lopez an extended audition with some of the pressure from below (Nick Neidert, Edward Cabrera, Jorge Guzman, etc.). If the Marlins want to be eternally “thrifty,” then they need to run the roster in such a way where they can find the inexpensive players who will actually make that strategy possible.

Bench and Prospects

It’s galling, but ZiPS isn’t terribly hopeful about the chances of the team getting any core players from the Stanton/Yelich/Ozuna dealing. My colleagues Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen are more optimistic, and Marlins fans have to be pulling for them to make the computer look foolish. What it comes down to is that ZiPS wants to see, at some point, the raw power actually become game power for Isan Diaz, and in the case of Monte Harrison, for him to not strike out 200 times in Double-A. Brinson’s struggles in the majors have been well-documented, and you don’t want me to tell you what projection percentile Magneuris Sierra has to meet in order to match the dizzying heights of Tom Goodwin.

Overall, the minor league system is still in the below-average range, but it’s certainly improved from the desolate days of recent yore, when a mannequin dressed up as Nolan Ryan might have made the team’s top 20 list.

If I apply human feelings to ZiPS, I think it would like to see Miguel Rojas get a chance at being a stopgap shortstop for someone. It would have to happen fairly quickly, as he’ll turn 30 next month, but with 2.4 WAR in 834 PA over the last two seasons, a projection in the same time zone as two wins for 2019, and the ability to play multiple positions well, he could be a solid fill-in for someone in an emergency. I mean, a major league team* actually voluntarily played Alcides Escobar in 2018.

*Legally, the 2018 Royals were part of major league baseball.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
J.T. Realmuto R 28 C 134 507 71 135 30 4 19 74 38 109 5 2
Brian Anderson R 26 RF 156 579 83 151 31 4 14 70 60 136 2 3
Miguel Rojas R 30 SS 150 431 45 112 18 1 7 45 24 56 4 3
Starlin Castro R 29 2B 149 568 65 152 27 2 14 61 34 110 5 3
JT Riddle L 27 SS 119 412 42 101 17 4 9 48 25 88 3 3
Martin Prado R 35 3B 96 362 34 93 17 1 4 37 24 55 1 1
Brian Miller L 23 LF 122 502 51 133 20 4 0 36 30 77 31 12
Isaac Galloway R 29 RF 121 389 45 91 17 3 10 40 24 100 17 7
Derek Dietrich L 29 LF 145 452 60 112 24 4 14 49 33 121 1 1
Lewis Brinson R 25 CF 113 419 44 91 16 5 13 49 27 124 7 3
Monte Harrison R 23 CF 135 521 62 107 18 2 16 51 38 214 22 8
Jon Berti R 29 3B 94 347 39 79 11 4 5 28 26 79 21 8
Rafael Ortega L 28 LF 131 437 51 106 19 6 3 38 42 65 15 5
Austin Dean R 25 LF 134 498 62 127 25 4 11 59 37 96 4 3
Dixon Machado R 27 2B 122 411 42 93 18 1 4 33 33 80 7 3
Eric Campbell R 32 2B 102 324 45 77 14 2 5 37 45 68 5 4
Garrett Cooper R 28 1B 100 343 40 84 18 1 9 41 27 86 1 1
Cristhian Adames B 27 2B 128 419 45 99 15 4 6 37 32 76 5 4
Bryan Holaday R 31 C 77 225 19 49 10 0 4 26 12 45 0 1
Isan Diaz L 23 2B 119 439 52 88 18 4 10 46 55 153 9 3
Chad Wallach R 27 C 69 231 25 47 11 0 6 23 22 77 0 1
Rodrigo Vigil R 26 C 78 271 24 62 10 1 2 19 8 42 1 1
Jonathan Rodriguez R 29 1B 108 381 49 83 15 0 12 41 46 124 3 1
Rosell Herrera B 26 RF 118 409 44 95 17 4 5 32 33 93 12 6
Scott Van Slyke R 32 1B 69 183 20 36 8 0 5 19 20 59 2 1
Deven Marrero R 28 SS 102 295 34 60 11 1 4 24 21 93 7 3
Pedro Alvarez L 32 1B 114 378 44 83 15 0 17 54 33 117 1 0
Chris Diaz R 28 SS 77 225 21 43 7 1 0 11 23 65 3 2
John Silviano L 24 1B 96 341 39 69 12 3 12 39 33 134 3 3
Cito Culver B 26 SS 94 317 30 60 12 2 6 26 26 115 2 2
Joe Dunand R 23 SS 130 480 52 101 19 1 12 53 32 144 1 2
Yadiel Rivera R 27 3B 123 323 30 59 8 3 3 23 23 109 4 3
Bryson Brigman R 24 SS 122 493 47 110 13 3 3 31 30 94 13 8
Justin Twine R 23 2B 107 386 36 85 11 6 5 34 14 109 8 6
Magneuris Sierra L 23 CF 142 516 49 121 17 6 3 37 23 110 17 9
James Nelson R 21 3B 94 362 34 83 17 1 3 30 20 128 3 1
B.J. Lopez R 24 C 52 168 13 28 3 0 0 6 14 53 0 1
Peter O’Brien R 28 1B 121 420 51 81 16 2 21 57 40 182 1 0
Harold Rami
rez
R 24 RF 123 475 48 113 21 2 7 44 23 102 9 4
Gabriel Guerrero R 25 RF 141 512 54 118 20 4 12 51 27 143 4 4
Sharif Othman B 30 C 62 203 16 35 6 0 3 15 12 77 0 1
JB Shuck L 32 LF 119 333 33 76 14 2 2 23 27 44 7 3
Riley Mahan L 23 2B 113 442 35 89 18 3 3 32 21 150 6 2
Eric Jagielo L 27 1B 111 374 33 62 14 0 7 31 31 153 1 0

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
J.T. Realmuto .266 .326 .454 114 .187 .306 5.5 2 3.9 Thurman Munson
Brian Anderson .261 .342 .401 106 .140 .319 4.9 8 3.1 Pat Tabler
Miguel Rojas .260 .307 .355 84 .095 .285 3.9 7 1.8 Jack Wilson
Starlin Castro .268 .310 .396 95 .129 .311 4.5 -3 1.6 Hubie Brooks
JT Riddle .245 .286 .371 81 .126 .292 3.7 4 1.3 Ronny Cedeno
Martin Prado .257 .304 .343 80 .086 .294 3.8 3 0.8 Ray Knight
Brian Miller .265 .309 .321 76 .056 .313 3.8 9 0.8 Gerardo Parra
Isaac Galloway .234 .282 .370 79 .136 .290 3.8 7 0.7 Manny Martinez
Derek Dietrich .248 .327 .412 104 .164 .309 4.8 -8 0.6 Ben Broussard
Lewis Brinson .217 .269 .372 76 .155 .277 3.5 2 0.6 Shawn Abner
Monte Harrison .205 .273 .340 69 .134 .313 3.3 3 0.5 Wilkin Ramirez
Jon Berti .228 .294 .326 72 .098 .281 3.5 2 0.5 Zach Sorensen
Rafael Ortega .243 .310 .334 79 .092 .279 3.8 4 0.5 Sam Fuld
Austin Dean .255 .311 .388 93 .133 .297 4.3 -4 0.4 Matt Miller
Dixon Machado .226 .289 .304 65 .078 .272 3.1 5 0.4 Osmani Estrada
Eric Campbell .238 .337 .340 89 .102 .287 4.0 -7 0.4 Bobby Scales
Garrett Cooper .245 .305 .382 90 .137 .302 4.1 1 0.3 Mike Brown
Cristhian Adames .236 .291 .334 73 .098 .276 3.4 1 0.3 Chris Lombardozzi
Bryan Holaday .218 .263 .316 60 .098 .256 2.8 4 0.2 Rick Cerone
Isan Diaz .200 .293 .328 72 .128 .283 3.3 -2 0.2 Brandon Cromer
Chad Wallach .203 .280 .329 69 .126 .277 3.0 0 0.2 Carl Nichols
Rodrigo Vigil .229 .263 .295 55 .066 .264 2.7 3 0.0 Luis Oliveros
Jonathan Rodriguez .218 .303 .352 82 .134 .290 3.7 -1 0.0 Reggie Whittemore
Rosell Herrera .232 .291 .330 73 .098 .289 3.4 2 -0.2 Ed Yacopino
Scott Van Slyke .197 .287 .322 69 .126 .261 3.1 1 -0.2 Dusty Wathan
Deven Marrero .203 .256 .288 51 .085 .283 2.5 2 -0.3 Frank Kremblas
Pedro Alvarez .220 .283 .394 85 .175 .270 3.9 -4 -0.3 Tony Clark
Chris Diaz .191 .274 .231 43 .040 .269 2.1 2 -0.3 Les Dennis
John Silviano .202 .276 .361 75 .158 .292 3.3 1 -0.4 Travis Ishikawa
Cito Culver .189 .249 .297 51 .107 .276 2.4 3 -0.4 Brad Harman
Joe Dunand .210 .268 .329 65 .119 .275 2.9 -4 -0.4 Sergio Santos
Yadiel Rivera .183 .242 .254 38 .071 .265 2.0 10 -0.4 Chris Petersen
Bryson Brigman .223 .273 .280 54 .057 .270 2.6 2 -0.4 Alex Prieto
Justin Twine .220 .259 .319 59 .098 .294 2.7 2 -0.4 Tim Florez
Magneuris Sierra .234 .269 .308 60 .074 .293 2.9 1 -0.7 Jay Davis
James Nelson .229 .275 .307 62 .077 .346 3.0 -2 -0.7 Mark Wasinger
B.J. Lopez .167 .234 .185 19 .018 .243 1.3 2 -0.8 Rick Cerone
Peter O’Brien .193 .266 .390 79 .198 .276 3.5 -6 -0.9 Danny Peoples
Harold Ramirez .238 .281 .335 70 .097 .290 3.4 -4 -1.1 Ronald Crowe
Gabriel Guerrero .230 .268 .355 71 .125 .297 3.3 -3 -1.2 Victor Mata
Sharif Othman .172 .226 .246 31 .074 .260 1.7 -5 -1.4 Charlie Greene
JB Shuck .228 .286 .300 63 .072 .258 3.0 -6 -1.4 Doug Dascenzo
Riley Mahan .201 .244 .276 44 .075 .298 2.3 -3 -1.8 Charlie Hayes
Eric Jagielo .166 .240 .259 39 .094 .257 2.0 0 -2.3 Shawn Buhner

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Pablo Lopez R 23 6 6 4.04 24 23 127.0 131 57 15 35 95
Nick Neidert R 22 9 10 4.39 26 26 139.3 147 68 22 34 111
Trevor Richards R 26 8 9 4.25 28 28 146.0 143 69 19 53 134
Jose Urena R 27 8 10 4.36 29 26 144.3 145 70 19 50 105
Zac Gallen R 23 8 9 4.39 25 25 135.3 141 66 18 50 111
Wei-Yin Chen L 33 7 8 4.51 24 24 121.7 125 61 20 37 101
Hector Noesi R 32 6 7 4.60 19 18 115.3 125 59 14 39 72
Dustin Beggs R 26 6 7 4.60 25 18 107.7 118 55 16 31 76
Drew Steckenrider R 28 3 3 3.67 65 0 61.3 53 25 6 30 71
Sandy Alcantara R 23 6 7 4.63 28 26 142.0 145 73 15 73 104
Mike Kickham L 30 4 5 4.48 22 13 80.3 86 40 10 24 54
Kyle Keller R 26 3 2 3.61 42 1 52.3 44 21 4 30 59
Caleb Smith L 27 5 6 4.57 21 17 88.7 83 45 12 42 88
Robert Dugger R 23 7 9 4.61 26 23 130.7 138 67 18 50 97
Jordan Yamamoto R 23 4 5 4.41 18 16 81.7 79 40 10 33 74
Joe Gunkel R 27 5 7 4.69 26 17 103.7 116 54 17 18 64
Ben Meyer R 26 4 5 4.36 29 11 84.7 88 41 8 34 61
Brian Moran L 30 2 2 3.83 45 0 54.0 50 23 5 24 53
Jumbo Diaz R 35 4 4 3.72 43 1 46.0 42 19 4 21 43
Dylan Lee L 24 5 5 3.95 47 0 54.7 53 24 4 27 45
Jose Quijada L 23 4 4 3.86 45 0 58.3 51 25 4 33 61
Tommy Eveld R 25 4 3 3.75 47 0 48.0 44 20 4 20 44
Nick Anderson R 28 3 2 3.94 44 0 48.0 42 21 7 19 57
Nick Wittgren R 28 4 4 3.96 55 0 61.3 61 27 7 18 55
Chris O’Grady L 29 4 5 4.65 28 10 69.7 71 36 11 27 60
Drew Rucinski R 30 3 3 4.21 50 0 62.0 64 29 7 20 46
Adam Conley L 29 3 4 4.18 74 0 71.0 68 33 8 32 62
Kolton Mahoney R 27 5 7 4.85 27 12 89.0 101 48 13 28 54
Dan Straily R 30 6 9 5.04 26 26 135.7 139 76 26 55 113
Sean Burnett L 36 1 1 4.18 28 0 28.0 28 13 3 9 22
Javy Guerra R 33 3 3 4.50 44 0 52.0 52 26 6 24 45
Riley Ferrell R 25 3 3 4.50 43 0 52.0 47 26 5 35 53
Jeff Brigham R 27 6 9 4.93 21 20 95.0 100 52 13 47 74
Tyler Stevens R 23 6 7 4.40 47 0 71.7 71 35 11 25 68
Tayron Guerrero R 28 2 3 4.47 58 0 58.3 54 29 8 34 66
R.J. Alvarez R 28 3 4 4.64 45 0 42.7 40 22 5 26 42
McKenzie Mills L 23 5 7 5.00 23 20 104.3 112 58 15 43 75
Tyler Kinley R 28 2 3 4.56 51 0 51.3 48 26 6 32 55
Julian Fernandez R 23 1 1 4.82 36 0 37.3 39 20 4 22 27
Jordan Holloway R 23 1 1 5.56 9 9 34.0 36 21 6 20 29
Merandy Gonzalez R 23 6 8 5.16 23 18 99.3 108 57 13 54 70
Esmerling de la Rosa R 28 2 3 5.06 35 3 58.7 65 33 8 29 39
Tyler Cloyd R 32 4 7 5.53 22 15 94.3 110 58 19 29 62
Brett Graves R 26 3 6 5.79 25 13 82.3 94 53 15 36 49
Jorge Guzman R 23 3 6 5.88 20 20 82.7 83 54 11 76 73
Jarlin Garcia L 26 3 6 5.45 42 14 100.7 112 61 19 40 64
Elieser Hernandez R 24 4 6 5.99 33 11 76.7 86 51 17 36 59

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Pablo Lopez 544 6.73 2.48 1.06 .296 99 101 4.18 1.6 Larry Christenson
Nick Neidert 596 7.17 2.20 1.42 .296 91 109 4.49 1.2 Dave Geeve
Trevor Richards 632 8.26 3.27 1.17 .297 91 109 4.26 1.2 Ben Hendrickson
Jose Urena 627 6.55 3.12 1.18 .284 89 112 4.65 1.0 Francisco Barrios
Zac Gallen 594 7.38 3.33 1.20 .301 89 113 4.50 0.9 Josh Fogg
Wei-Yin Chen 520 7.47 2.74 1.48 .292 89 112 4.59 0.9 Tom Browning
Hector Noesi 507 5.62 3.04 1.09 .295 87 115 4.65 0.7 Ownie Carroll
Dustin Beggs 470 6.35 2.59 1.34 .299 87 114 4.70 0.6 Nick Blackburn
Drew Steckenrider 265 10.42 4.40 0.88 .301 106 94 3.67 0.6 Roy Smith
Sandy Alcantara 641 6.59 4.63 0.95 .295 84 119 4.77 0.6 Mike Torrez
Mike Kickham 349 6.05 2.69 1.12 .296 90 112 4.47 0.6 Jeff Ballard
Kyle Keller 231 10.15 5.16 0.69 .296 108 93 3.78 0.6 Clay Bryant
Caleb Smith 389 8.93 4.26 1.22 .292 88 114 4.48 0.6 Mike Chris
Robert Dugger 578 6.68 3.44 1.24 .296 84 119 4.79 0.5 Michael Macdonald
Jordan Yamamoto 356 8.16 3.64 1.10 .295 88 113 4.33 0.5 Rick Rodriguez
Joe Gunkel 442 5.56 1.56 1.48 .293 86 117 4.71 0.5 Josh Towers
Ben Meyer 375 6.48 3.61 0.85 .301 89 112 4.35 0.5 Marino Pieretti
Brian Moran 235 8.83 4.00 0.83 .300 105 95 3.89 0.5 Juan Agosto
Jumbo Diaz 200 8.41 4.11 0.78 .292 105 96 3.91 0.4 Diego Segui
Dylan Lee 244 7.41 4.45 0.66 .299 102 98 4.16 0.4 Mike Cosgrove
Jose Quijada 259 9.41 5.09 0.62 .299 101 99 3.85 0.4 Grant Jackson
Tommy Eveld 207 8.25 3.75 0.75 .292 104 96 3.78 0.4 Jerry Reed
Nick Anderson 205 10.69 3.56 1.31 .294 102 98 4.05 0.4 Jose Veras
Nick Wittgren 261 8.07 2.64 1.03 .302 98 102 3.82 0.3 Jose Silva
Chris O’Grady 305 7.75 3.49 1.42 .294 86 116 4.77 0.3 Mark Watson
Drew Rucinski 269 6.68 2.90 1.02 .297 95 105 4.30 0.3 Ron Taylor
Adam Conley 312 7.86 4.06 1.01 .291 93 108 4.39 0.2 Jim Roland
Kolton Mahoney 395 5.46 2.83 1.31 .299 83 121 4.98 0.2 Steve Lemke
Dan Straily 597 7.50 3.65 1.72 .285 80 126 5.32 0.1 Steve McCatty
Sean Burnett 120 7.07 2.89 0.96 .294 96 104 4.04 0.1 Steve Hamilton
Javy Guerra 231 7.79 4.15 1.04 .301 89 112 4.48 0.0 Jerry Johnson
Riley Ferrell 237 9.17 6.06 0.87 .298 89 112 4.55 0.0 Marc Pisciotta
Jeff Brigham 431 7.01 4.45 1.23 .299 79 127 5.04 0.0 Landon Jacobsen
Tyler Stevens 310 8.54 3.14 1.38 .297 88 113 4.46 0.0 Kevin Price
Tayron Guerrero 262 10.18 5.25 1.23 .305 87 115 4.57 0.0 Mike MacDougal
R.J. Alvarez 193 8.86 5.48 1.05 .297 87 116 4.67 0.0 Ryan Henderson
McKenzie Mills 466 6.47 3.71 1.29 .297 78 129 4.99 -0.1 J.R. Richard
Tyler Kinley 234 9.64 5.61 1.05 .304 85 117 4.57 -0.1 Mike MacDougal
Julian Fernandez 172 6.51 5.30 0.96 .299 81 124 5.03 -0.2 Dave Cole
Jordan Holloway 158 7.68 5.29 1.59 .297 70 143 5.68 -0.2 Luz Portobanco
Merandy Gonzalez 458 6.34 4.89 1.18 .302 75 133 5.25 -0.3 Jake Joseph
Esmerling de la Rosa 269 5.98 4.45 1.23 .302 77 130 5.28 -0.3 Mike Bumstead
Tyler Cloyd 419 5.92 2.77 1.81 .299 73 138 5.54 -0.5 Allen Davis
Brett Graves 376 5.36 3.94 1.64 .293 69 144 5.86 -0.7 Scott Shoemaker
Jorge Guzman 407 7.95 8.27 1.20 .299 68 146 6.09 -0.7 Edwin Morel
Jarlin Garcia 449 5.72 3.58 1.70 .288 71 140 5.61 -0.8 Rick DeHart
Elieser Hernandez 349 6.93 4.23 2.00 .295 67 149 6.02 -0.9 Kevin Vent

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Sunday Notes: Can the Astros’ Secret Sauce Spice Up Orioles’ Pitching?

Pitchers in the Astros organization were K-happy this past season. Thanks to a bevy of power arms and analytics-based attack plans, each of Houston’s full-season minor league affiliates led its respective league in strikeouts. So did their short-season and, most notably, their big-league club.

Given that he’d spent the last six seasons as a high-ranking member of Houston’s front office, I asked Mike Elias if that’s something that could maybe be replicated in Baltimore.

“We’re very much hoping to replicate even a semblance of that success here,” answered the Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager. “The fact that we have (Assistant GM, Analytics) Sig Mejdal here, and Chris Holt, who was our assistant pitching coordinator in Houston, makes me feel really good about our chances of doing so. There is a little bit of a secret sauce behind that. I’m not going to explain it fully, but we had a great program there. We took a lot of time developing it, and we want to get it in place here as well.”

Hoping to glean at least a little insight into the secret sauce’s ingredients, I suggested that both draft and player development strategies are involved in the process. Read the rest of this entry »


Brian Anderson on Hitting: “Home Runs Come With Experience”

Brian Anderson knows who he is as a hitter; he’s less sure of what kind of hitter he’ll be in the years to come. At 25 years of age with just 765 big-league plate appearances under his belt, the fourth-place finisher in last year’s NL Rookie of the Year balloting has a lot of growth in front of him.

Drafted by the Marlins out of the University of Arkansas in 2014, Anderson has displayed reliability, versatility, and a smooth right-handed stroke since arriving in Miami in September 2017. Manning both third base and right field, he finished the 2018 campaign with a .273/.357/.400 slash line and a team-high 34 doubles. Moreover, he was a mainstay in Don Mattingly’s lineup. Anderson was a spectator in just five games.

One thing he didn’t do often was leave the yard. Partly the result of playing in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, Anderson homered a paltry 11 times. Which circles us back to the “what kind of hitter he’ll be in the years to come?” question. Anderson doesn’t lack raw power. It’s a matter of tapping into it more consistently as he continues to mature as a hitter.

Anderson discussed his gap-to-gap approach, as well as his long-ball potential, when the Marlins visited Fenway Park late last August.

———

Brian Anderson on hitting: “It’s about getting my pitches to hit. More specifically, getting good pitches within my approach and putting a good swing on them. It starts with my work in the cage, and then BP is for working on barreling the ball to all parts of the field. It’s for making sure that I’m hitting the ball the right way.

“Once I’m in the box, it kind of depends on the pitcher. Certain pitchers don’t throw to certain spots, and some pitchers are most vulnerable in certain spots. I like the ball more out over the plate. I like it more down in the zone and middle to middle away. That’s kind of the zone I try to lock in on, and I’ll try to drive that ball to right center. If I get hanging off-speed, or a heater in, then I’m (pulling the ball). Generally speaking, I’m more focused on the middle of the field. Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Check in on Miami’s Suit Against the Marlins and Jeffrey Loria

Early last year, I wrote about the lawsuit Miami had filed against the Marlins and Jeffrey Loria, alleging that Jeffrey Loria had used “fuzzy math” to depress the value of his club and avoid paying a share of the team’s sale proceeds to Miami and Miami-Dade County. (The County is also a party to suit against the Marlins and Loria.) With the new year starting, this seems like a good time to check in on the state of the suit.

When we last looked at this case, the Marlins, under the new ownership group helmed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, rather dubiously claimed British citizenship as a way of moving the lawsuit to federal court (a process called “removal”) and attempting to force arbitration. Despite the less than stellar optics and even more questionable legal basis for the argument, the team nonetheless went all-in on their position that the team was, at least in part, a foreign citizen. In response, Miami sent Laurence Leavy – the attorney better known as “Marlins Man” for his formerly ubiquitous presence at Marlins games – and radio personality Andy Slater to the British Virgin Islands office where the team’s lawyers argued that one of the companies which owned the team, Aberneu, was ostensibly located. In a revelation that surprised no one, Aberneu, it turned out, had no offices or physical presence there – just a post office box. The Marlins, however, didn’t appreciate Slater’s involvement, and responded by revoking Slater’s press pass.

At oral argument on the issue of the team’s citizenship in July, the county emphasized that the team was, in all meaningful ways, an American company that did business in Florida, and showed the judge the evidence obtained from Slater and Leavy’s investigation. At that hearing, Judge Darrin Gayles indicated that she was skeptical of the team’s claim of British citizenship.

THE COURT: As I understand it, there is no question that the purchaser in this case is a U.S. corporation or is a U.S. entity. Right?

MR. DOYLE [attorney for the Jeter/Sherman group]: That is not correct, Your Honor. The buyer is an LLC that its citizenship is determined by its members under Supreme Court precedent and it has a non-U.S. member. So, therefore, it is the citizen of both the United States and outside the United States, foreign.

THE COURT: All right. So in situations where an LLC has dual citizenship, U.S. and foreign, can you point to me specific cases that say that in that situation it is a foreign country for purposes of the [New York] Convention [governing arbitration agreements]?

MR. DOYLE: Your Honor, we have not found such a case [.]

And later, Judge Gayles asked Doyle why the Marlins hadn’t attempted to raise the arbitration issue previously, before the state court. Doyle responded that “[t]he issue of the citizenship of the buyer was not known to me as counsel for the seller and it was in an investigation afterwards . . . that led us to discover that the buyer was, in fact, a dual citizen, foreign and domestic. So that information was discovered after the state court hearing.” That’s not entirely true, however – in fact, the team had moved to arbitrate the dispute in state court, and the state court judge, Beatrice Butchko, denied the motion on February 22, 2018, very early in the case.

So as you can probably see (and you can read the whole transcript for yourself if you’re interested), the Marlins’ attorneys weren’t really able to do a good job of articulating how a company that is both a citizen of the United States and a citizen of a foreign country somehow only qualifies as a foreign company for purposes of the law, nor were they able to explain adequately why they didn’t raise the arbitration issue before the state court when the case was first filed.

And so it was perhaps unsurprising when the Court denied the Marlins’ request to arbitrate the case in early August and sent it back to state court (a process called “remand”). Judge Gayles wrote that the team “face[s] an uphill battle in establishing the requisite citizenship to confer jurisdiction under the Convention[,]” adding that “[t]he Loria Marlins’ assignment of their rights to the Jeter Marlins likely did not . . . confer a more expansive right to arbitrate under the Convention.” In other words, the Court didn’t at all believe that the Marlins were a British citizen, and sent the case back to state court for the state judge to decide whether the case was arbitrable on the grounds that the state court had already taken the first steps towards doing just that in its February ruling (the one Doyle evidently forgot about).

Now, you might think that the Marlins and Loria, unable to arbitrate after having two courts deny their request, and stuck in a state court that had already indicated displeasure with Loria’s creative accounting techniques, would open lines of communication to resolve the case. After all, to this point, the case doesn’t appear to be going all that well for the team or Loria. But that’s not what happened. Instead, the team and Loria appealed the state court’s denial of their arbitration request even though the case wasn’t over yet. Appealing a non-final order is called an “interlocutory appeal,” and, regardless of what you see on television, it’s actually pretty extraordinary. The general rule in every state – and Florida is no exception – is that you can’t appeal until after a case is over, because appellate courts tend not to like piecemeal appeals; they want to look at everything at once.

In fact, the very first thing the team did once the case was back in state court was to file what’s called a “Notice of Appeal” – the document beginning the appeal under Florida law. The team then asked for a stay of all proceedings for the appellate court to weigh in on the arbitration issue that two courts had already looked at and denied. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try, again! At this point, an evidently exasperated Judge Butchko denied the stay outright on October 2, 2018, essentially ordering the team and Loria to stop playing around with demands for arbitration and start litigating the merits of the case.

Things looked very bleak indeed for the team and then, late last year, Florida’s Third District Court of Appeal granted review (essentially accepting the case), and issued an order staying all proceedings – ordering everything to stop – until they’d looked at the case and decided the arbitration issue. That means that the whole case is essentially in limbo until a third court decides the same issue that two courts already have.

Now, as a matter of law, Butchko and Gayles largely got it right. But it’s also possible that the Appellate Court decides that it wants this case out of the judicial system; judicial economy is a virtue appellate courts adore, and it’s one of the primary reasons arbitration is so often upheld. Courts like the idea of cases being decided by someone who isn’t them, because (theoretically) it frees up judicial resources and relieves case backlogs. That being said, appellate courts tend to move pretty slowly, and it could very well be late 2019 or early 2020 before this issue is decided.


FanGraphs Q&A and Sunday Notes: The Best Quotes of 2018

In 2018, I once again had the pleasure of interviewing hundreds of people within baseball. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came courtesy of the FanGraphs Q&A series, the Learning and Developing a Pitch series, the Manager’s Perspective series, and a smattering of feature stories. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations.

———

“My slider will come out and it will be spinning, spinning, spinning, and then as soon as it catches, it picks up speed and shoots the other way. Whoosh! It’s like when you bowl. You throw the ball, and then as soon as it catches, it shoots with more speed and power. Right? “ — Sergio Romo, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher, January 2018

“One of the biggest lessons we learn is that iron sharpens iron. That is 100% how we try to do things with the Rockies — hiring people that are smarter than we are, and more skilled, and have different skills that can complement, and train people to be better at their jobs than I am at my job. That’s how you advance an organization.” — Jeff Bridich, Colorado Rockies GM, January 2018

“We could split hairs and say, ‘Hey, you’re playing in front of a thousand drunk Australians instead of 40,000 drunk Bostonians, and you’re living with a host family instead of at a five-star hotel.’ But The Show is The Show, and in Australia the ABL is The Show.” — Lars Anderson, baseball nomad, January 2018

“Baseball is heaven. Until our closer blows the game.” — Michael Hill, Miami Marlins president of baseball operations, January 2018 Read the rest of this entry »