One year after they missed the playoffs in maddening fashion, the Padres are advancing to the National League Division Series after holding on to beat the Braves, 5-4, in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series on Wednesday night at Petco Park.

If Game 1 of this series was a beautiful ballet choreographed by San Diego starter Michael King, with a result that was never in doubt, then Game 2 was a far more uncertain thriller.

Atlanta struck first, when leadoff batter Michael Harris II smoked a first-pitch double down the right field line, advanced to third on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly. Then the Padres came to bat against Braves lefty Max Fried, and things looked like they were about to get out of hand.

San Diego loaded the bases on back-to-back singles by Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. and a Jurickson Profar chopper in front of the mound — Fried fielded it but his throw to second was late and everyone was safe — before Fried buckled down. He struck out Manny Machado, got Jackson Merrill to ground into a 3-2 fielder’s choice, and induced a grounder to short by Xander Bogaerts to get out of the inning without allowing a run.

This was when I thought Fried was going to have one of those postseason starts. Escaping a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed is one of the most difficult things to do as a pitcher, and dang it, Fried did it in the very first inning against San Diego’s 4-5-6 hitters. The adage is that you’ve got to get to great pitchers before they can settle in, and the Padres almost did that in the first. Additionally, Fried actually looked sharp despite those three baserunners; none of the balls in play left the infield. A great early narrative was brewing in San Diego, with momentum temporarily favoring the Braves.

There was one problem, though. Fried avoided trouble, but he couldn’t avoid the 99.8-mph liner that Tatis ripped off the pitcher’s hip/butt area.

Braves manager Brian Snitker told ESPN’s Buster Olney during the game that the area in which Fried got hit was bothering him, perhaps contributing to the pitcher’s unraveling. The Padres took a different tack in the second inning, when they lulled Fried into a false sense of security by making the first two outs in quick succession before laying the hammer down. Kyle Higashioka homered to tie it, and then all hell broke loose. Fried allowed three straight singles to load the bases before Machado lined a two-run double into the left field corner. Next up was Merrill, who tripled over Harris’ head in straightaway center to plate two more runs. In a 15-pitch span, the Padres went from trailing by one to leading by four.

MERRILL MADNESS!

The rookie comes through with a 2-run triple ? pic.twitter.com/GTdlyCLMbz

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

This game was far from over, though, especially because Padres starter Joe Musgrove left the game with two outs in the fourth with an injury of his own. Two slower-than-usual curveballs prompted an eagle-eyed Higashioka to visit his pitcher on the mound, followed by the pitching coach, manager, and trainer. Musgrove shook his arm out in obvious discomfort, and the injury update was indeed among the most ominous possible: right elbow tightness.

Turning to any bullpen for 16 outs is far from ideal, but it should be an easier pill to swallow for the Padres, who bolstered their relief corps in late July; just before the trade deadline, they acquired Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays. And following King’s seven-inning gem on Tuesday, everyone in San Diego’s bullpen was rested and ready to go. This game wasn’t exactly over, but the Padres certainly had the advantage, especially because Atlanta’s bullpen was running on fumes.

And yet, the Braves relievers were the ones who silenced the Padres, not the other way around. Dylan Lee, Daysbel Hernández, Pierce Johnson, and Joe Jiménez kept Atlanta in the game and set up an exciting finish as San Diego’s bullpen stumbled.

Hoeing replaced the injured Musgrove, got four key outs, and then gave up a 600-foot home run to Jorge Soler. (Please note that my distance estimate is indisputable, as Statcast didn’t register a distance or exit velocity for the ball.)

Jorge Soler hit this baseball to a different universe ? #Postseason pic.twitter.com/Ww7RB3r3bw

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

After the home run, Hoeing retired the next three Braves batters in the fifth before manager Mike Shildt called on Jeremiah Estrada to start the sixth. Estrada had a 28.2% strikeout rate this season, but he clearly didn’t have his best stuff on Wednesday. He allowed two singles, recorded two hard-hit outs, and got just three whiffs on 16 swings. Shildt replaced Estrada with the left-handed Scott to face lefty slugger Matt Olson with runners on the corners and two outs in a three-run game. The Atlanta cleanup hitter lined out to left field to end the inning. Scott pitched a scoreless seventh inning, but he was a bit shaky; only eight of his 24 pitches were in the strike zone.

Facing Adam after Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia singled to lead off the eighth, Harris jumped on the first pitch again, this time launching it over the center field wall for a two-run homer.

MONEY MIKE BRINGS THE @BRAVES WITHIN A RUN! pic.twitter.com/bQ7ACpECRJ

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

That blast energized the Braves dugout to a level unseen over the first 16 innings of the series; if you’re a believer in momentum, it certainly lay squarely in the visitor’s dugout at this point.

But if momentum exists at all, it sometimes exists to only be wiped away, to give a false sense of hope, to create wishes for a longer fall before the harshness of winter and the offseason sets in. Adam and closer Robert Suarez hunkered down to retire the next six Braves. After beating the Mets to clinch a playoff berth in the final regular-season game on Monday, Atlanta’s season ended on Wednesday.

Maybe swift disappointment was the only way it could end, emblematic of a trying season for Snitker’s ballclub. The Braves hoped that Spencer Strider’s elbow injury wouldn’t be too serious, only to learn that he’d need season-ending internal brace surgery. They hoped that Ronald Acuña Jr. would miss about a month or so, only to hear that he’d suffered the second torn ACL of his career and would be out for the season. They hoped Austin Riley would be back for the playoffs after breaking his hand in August, only to find out that he’d require more recovery time. And, most recently, they hoped Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale would be on the mound for them this October, only to discover his back had flared up and he wouldn’t be able to pitch in the Wild Card Series.

All that hope will now turn to 2025, when the injured players are expected to return and bring the rejuvenated nucleus together once again. Hopefully, anyway.

As for the Padres, they’ll ride this series sweep to Los Angeles, where they’ll face off against their rival Dodgers in the best-of-five NLDS. San Diego outperformed the Dodgers in the season series, and even if Musgrove’s injury keeps him off the mound, the Padres’ pitchers are significantly healthier than the Dodgers’ staff. And because the Wild Card Series ended in just two games, San Diego can start ace Dylan Cease in Saturday’s Game 1. Then, the Padres would have Yu Darvish or King on short rest for Game 2, with the other one getting the nod in Tuesday’s Game 3.

In your most prim and proper ballet teacher voice, repeat after me, “Demi-plié and stretch. Demi-plié and stretch.” The demi-plié is the first foundational move taught to new ballerinas. Its name translates from French to “small bend.” When pitching from the windup, Michael King comes set, gently bends at the knees, then stands tall for a moment before delivering the pitch. Setting aside his lack of turnout and hinge at the hip, King went about his business on Tuesday with the precision and artistry of a dancer.

Ballerinas value efficiency of movement above all else, and King needed just 89 pitches to complete seven shutout innings, while allowing just five hits, walking absolutely no one, and striking out 12. His performance earned a standing ovation from the Petco Park crowd, which went home happy after the Padres orchestrated a 4-0 win over the Braves in Game 1 of the best-of-three NL Wild Card series.

King stole the show with a well-choreographed approach that has served him well all year, and he executed every step at a high level. And lest we forget, this is King’s first season in a full-time starting role, his first year strategically piecing together his complement of pitches into the rhythm and flow of a start. Knowing that his goals now include facing batters of both handedness multiple times and throwing six or more innings each time out, King has evolved the three-pitch arsenal he debuted with to a five-pitch ensemble that he deploys with specific intent. Read the rest of this entry »

With the 2022 change to a 12-team playoff format, the addition of the Wild Card Series, and the decision to do away with winner-take-all tiebreaker games, Major League Baseball thought it had stuck a fork in Team Entropy and done away with end-of-season scheduling chaos. But with the league’s failure to approach last week’s scheduled Braves-Mets series in Atlanta with the necessary level of proactivity in the face of Hurricane Helene, the two teams were forced to play a doubleheader on Monday to determine the final two NL Wild Card berths. While the Braves squandered leads of 3-0 and 7-6 in the late innings of the opener, the teams ultimately split the doubleheader; both finished 89-73 and made the cut, while the Diamondbacks, who played their final game as scheduled on Sunday, missed it because they lost their season series against the pair. The Braves had to fly cross-country on Monday night in order to make their date with Padres (93-69) in San Diego.

It’s a banged-up Braves team at that. Not only are they missing Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and Spencer Strider due to season-ending injuries, but they’re now without Chris Sale. The 35-year-old lefty may well collect the Cy Young award that has long eluded him, but he hasn’t pitched since September 19. Much was made of the Braves’ plan to start him just once in the final week instead of twice, and just when the baseball world expected him to start the must-win second game of Monday’s doubleheader, he was ruled out due to back spasms. Manager Brian Snitker said after the win that he doesn’t expect Sale to pitch in the Wild Card Series, and added that this is something the pitcher has dealt with on and off this season. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters prior to Sale’s scratched start that he would not be going on the injured list. [Update: Sale was left off the roster submitted to the league on Tuesday morning.]

As for the Padres, after a disappointing 2023 season in which they won just 82 games and squandered a franchise-record $255 million payroll and a full season of Juan Soto, they’re back in the postseason for the third time in five seasons. It took awhile for the Padres to hit their stride; they were just 50-49 at the All-Star break but went a major league-best 43-20 (.683) thereafter. Not only did they secure the top NL Wild Card spot (and thus home field advantage here) but they even put a scare into the Dodgers before the latter won the NL West. Read the rest of this entry »

The Detroit Tigers have been baseball’s hottest team, rattling off 31 wins in 43 games to go from eight games under .500 to 11 games over and into the postseason for the first time in a decade. That they’ve done so is nothing short of remarkable. Not only were most outside expectations relatively low coming into the campaign, the A.J. Hinch-led team has dominated September with a starting staff largely comprising of Tarik Skubal, unheralded rookie Keider Montero, and an array of openers. On the season, Detroit Tigers starters have thrown 748-and-a-third innings, the fewest in the majors (notably with a 3.66 ERA, fourth best in the majors).

There is obviously more to why the Tigers have emerged as a surprise team — not to mention a legitimate postseason contender — than the presence of an ace left-hander and Hinch’s expertise in mixing and matching starters and relievers. That is a deeper dive than fits here in Sunday Notes, but I did ask the “Why are the Tigers good?” question to three people who saw them sweep a series just this past week. I asked a second question as well: “What was the atmosphere like at Comerica Park?”

“From an atmosphere standpoint it was one of the best we’ve seen this year,” said Tampa Bay Rays broadcaster Andy Freed. “What impressed me most is that our first game there was supposed to be a night game, and because of rain coming in it was moved to the day. We thought, ‘What are they going to get, 5,000 people?’ It was a Tuesday and school was in session, but they got a great crowd. People decided they were still going to come to the baseball game. It reminded me how great of a sports town Detroit is. And they were into every pitch. It was the closest I’ve felt to a postseason atmosphere all year, except for maybe Philadelphia. Read the rest of this entry »

With the playoff fields in both leagues nearly set, we here at FanGraphs are turning our focus to how teams set up for October. Jay Jaffe has been covering the best players at each position among the contenders, as well as the worst. Dan Szymborski looked into the particulars of playoff lineup construction. Inspired by Meg Rowley, I’m taking a different tack: I’m looking for the players, strategies, and matchups that could be the difference between success and failure for each team.

We already know who the best players in baseball are, and they will of course be hugely important in the postseason. But less heralded players frequently have a lot to say about who takes home the World Series trophy. Think Steve Pearce and David Freese lengthening their respective lineups to turn those offenses from good to great, or the Braves bullpen mowing down the opposition in 2021. (On the flip side, you don’t hear a lot about teams let down by their supporting casts, because they mostly lose early on.) The best players aren’t always the most pivotal. In that spirit, I went through each team and focused on one potential pivot point. I looked at the American League yesterday; today, the National League gets its turn. Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers’ defeat of the Padres on Wednesday night did a lot to clear up the last suspenseful division race by restoring their NL West lead to three games, reducing their magic number to two, and cutting the San Diego’s odds of winning the division to 3%. The bigger story, however — an infuriating one given commissioner Rob Manfred’s unwillingness to override the Braves’ profit-minded intransigence with some proactive schedule shifting — is the Hurricane Helene-induced postponement of the final two games of the Mets-Braves series. Unless the Diamondbacks slide completely out of the picture, the two NL East rivals will now play a 1:10 p.m. ET doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday, the day after the scheduled end of the regular season. Whichever of the two teams survives (possibly both) would then face flights to Milwaukee (locked in as the third seed) and/or California (either Los Angeles or San Diego as the fourth seed) to start their respective Wild Card series the next day, with their pitching staffs at a significant disadvantage. Ugh, ugh, ugh.

Anyway, having gone around the horn and then some to identify the strongest players at each position among the remaining contenders in the National and American Leagues, we now turn to the weakest ones. This is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact, even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes, only this time with no trade deadline to help fill them. For this, I’m considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’m also considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations.

In this installment, I’ll highlight the biggest trouble spots from among an NL field that includes the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves. Read the rest of this entry »

With six days left in the regular season — and six games for most teams — three teams have clinched their respective divisions (the Brewers, Guardians, and Phillies), and two others have clinched playoff berths (the Dodgers and Yankees). That leaves 10 teams fighting for seven spots, but even with the playoff field not fully set, we thought it would be a fun and worthwhile exercise to highlight various facets of the potential October teams by going around the diamond to identify the strongest and weakest at each position in each league.

This is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes — think first base for the Yankees and Brewers, to pick one position from among the aforementioned teams — but this time with no trade deadline to help fill them. For this, I’ll be considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’ll also be considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens part of the deliberations.

For the first installment of this series, I’ll focus on each position’s best among the remaining National League contenders. In this case that limits the field to the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves, with the last three of those teams fighting for two Wild Card spots. Read the rest of this entry »

As we head into the final week of the regular season, 15 teams still show signs of life when it comes to claiming a playoff berth. On the one hand, that sounds impressive — half the majors still contending — and it’s on par with last year and better than 2022. Nonetheless, it still boils down to just three teams falling by the wayside, and just one of the six division leads having a greater than 1% chance of changing hands. As noted previously, since the adoption of the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement and its four-round playoff system, the options for scheduling chaos have been replaced by the excitement of math. On-field tiebreakers are a thing of the past, with head-to-head records usually all that are required to sort things out.

On Friday I checked in on the race to secure first-round byes, which go to the teams with the top two records in each league, so today I’ll shift focus to what’s left of the Wild Card races. Thankfully, there’s still enough at stake for both leagues to offering some amount of intrigue. Read the rest of this entry »

With just 10 days left to go in the regular season, four teams — the Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, and Yankees — have clinched playoff berths, and while just one division race has been decided, only two others have even a faint pulse. There’s still plenty of drama to be had with regards to the Wild Card races, which essentially boil down to a pair of four-to-make-three scenarios; Seattle might have been a stronger fifth in the AL if certain Mariners who reached third base didn’t insist upon taking very strange walkabouts. Beyond that, it’s also worth checking in on the jockeying for position to claim the first-round byes that go to the top two teams in each league.

Once upon a time, this space would be filled with my reintroducing readers to the concept of Team Entropy, but through the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Major League Baseball and the players’ union traded the potential excitement and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death games in exchange for a larger inventory of playoff games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the top two teams by allowing them to bypass the possibility of being eliminated in best-of-three series. So far, however, things haven’t worked out that way, because outcomes in a best-of-five series are only slightly more predictable than those of a best-of-three.

In fact, the National League teams who have received byes under the newish system have lost all four Division Series since, two apiece by the Dodgers and Braves. The 111-win Dodgers were ousted by an 89-win Padres team in 2022, and then last year’s 100-win team was knocked off by the 84-win Diamondbacks. In 2022, the 101-win Braves fell to an 87-win Phillies team, and last year, after winning 104 games in the regular season, Atlanta once again was eliminated by a Philadelphia club that had finished 14 games behind the Braves in the standings. American League bye teams have had more success, going 3-1, with last year’s 90-win Rangers beating the 101-win Orioles for the lone upset. The Astros have taken care of business in both years, with their 106-win club sweeping the 90-win Mariners in 2022 and their 90-win team beating the 87-win Twins last year. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Tight playoff races, milestone and award chases, and looking ahead to the offseason — these are the things I love about September baseball. One of the first decisions to be made after the World Series is determining who will receive qualifying offers, which currently projects to be valued at $21.2 million.

As a quick reminder before we continue, the qualifying offer is set at a price of the mean average annual value of the 125 highest-AAV players in the league. Once it’s offered to a player, he has 10 days to decide whether to accept or decline the offer. If the player accepts, he’s locked into 2025 at that salary, though he can always negotiate a contract extension that may override the qualifying offer. If the player declines and signs with a new team, his new team will forfeit at least one 2025 draft pick, and his old team will receive exactly one ’25 draft pick.

With less than three weeks left in the regular season, let’s run through which pending free agents could be getting qualifying offers come November.

Locks to Receive Qualifying Offers

These decisions are all straightforward. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Max Fried, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Teoscar Hernández, and Sean Manaea (once he exercises his opt out) are all having seasons somewhere between strong and elite. They’re all sure to reject the offer in favor of longer-term deals.

Likely to Receive, Plausible to Accept

Paul Goldschmidt is a tough act to follow, but Christian Walker has done well since taking over for him after the Diamondbacks traded Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in December 2018. Walker has been especially great the last three years, with 10.9 WAR, a 122 wRC+, and excellent defense at first base. He’s not spectacular, but he’s very good, and if the Diamondbacks are fine with running a record payroll again, they’d be wise to keep him around.

Walker’s got one big drawback, though: his age. Next year will be his age-34 season, and while he’d certainly like to earn a multi-year deal in free agency, the qualifying offer might tamp down his market to the point that accepting it would net him more money in 2025. He also might not want to risk rejecting it, hanging out on the open market for months, and then having to sign a prove-it deal. He’s a core member of a team that went to the World Series last year, is almost certainly going to return to the playoffs again this season, and is built to contend next year, too. Additionally, he seems comfortable in the desert. For all of these reasons, he is probably the player most likely to return to his team on a qualifying offer.

Likely to Receive, Likely to Reject

Tyler O’Neill has popped 30 home runs in his best and healthiest season since 2021, with his wRC+ just one point away from tying that career year. On the surface, that makes him seem like a slam dunk to receive the qualifying offer, and a slam dunk to reject it. He’s entering his age-30 season, and coming off his strong performance this year, he could look to get a three- or four-year deal on the open market. The one thing that gives me pause, though, is O’Neill’s injury history and how that might influence teams’ willingness to offer him a multi-year deal worth an average annual value of roughly $20 million. Understanding this, if the Red Sox give O’Neill the qualifying offer, he could decide it’s in his best interest to accept it. Meanwhile, Boston might not want to pay him $22.1 million next year, instead opting to use that money to bolster other areas of its roster. I still think the Red Sox will extend him a qualifying offer, and that he will turn it down, but it’s not a sure thing.

There’s an argument to be made that Michael Wacha is having the best season of his career; it’s definitely his healthiest since 2017. Provided he avoids injury the rest of the way, he’ll eschew his $16 million player option in favor of hitting the open market once again, leaving the Royals with a tough decision. On the one hand, this version of Wacha is worth $22.1 million; on the other, the injury concerns don’t just go away just because he’s been mostly healthy this year. As unlikely as Wacha would be to accept, the Royals might also prefer to eliminate any chance that he’d do so and instead allocate that money to lengthen their lineup. Having a rotation anchored by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo would make losing Wacha an easier pill to swallow.

Total Toss-Ups

If Ha-Seong Kim had reached free agency before this season instead of after it, he probably would have earned a deal of at least $100 million following his 4.3 WAR, 110 wRC+ campaign in 2023. But right shoulder inflammation could keep him on the sidelines for the rest of the season, and his run values as a hitter, fielder, and baserunner have all gone down considerably in 2024. That said, even in this down year, he’s put up 2.6 WAR and is still only 28; that is probably worth $22.1 million. However, considering the Padres have a glut of infielders already, they may not want to give Kim the option to accept a qualifying offer.

Luis Severino is having his healthiest season since 2018, when he put up 5.4 WAR across 191 1/3 innings, made the All-Star team, and received Cy Young votes as the ace of the Yankees. But he’s a completely different pitcher now than he was then. His velocity is still there, but he no longer has the swing-and-miss stuff to anchor a rotation. Even with the Mets expected to lose two other starters to free agency, I don’t think they’d want to pay him the salary of a no. 2 starter when, at this point, he profiles more like a no. 3 or 4.

There may be no starter in the league more enigmatic than Nick Pivetta. The stuff has always been great, but the command has been … less so. I’m of the opinion that he’d do surprisingly well on the open market, and in my head I’m comparing him to Yusei Kikuchi, who got three years and $36 million from the Blue Jays coming off a similarly uneven (and probably worse) few years. But the Red Sox already have Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito (assuming he recovers well from internal brace surgery) locked into next year’s rotation, and they may invest the $22.1 million elsewhere.

Unlikely to Receive

For other teams, I’d say that it would be a no-brainer to extend Shane Bieber a qualifying offer, but $22.1 million is a lot of money for the Guardians. If Bieber were to accept it, he could represent 20% or more of their payroll for 2025, and he might not be available until the second half of the season anyway after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. Considering his track record and how well he pitched in his first couple starts of the season, a multi-year deal at a lower average annual value — with the cash backloaded pretty heavily — should be easy for Bieber to secure.

There aren’t any pending free agent relievers with the pedigree of Josh Hader, who was an obvious qualifying offer recipient and rejector last offseason. Clay Holmes started his season pitching like he’d end up receiving one, but he’s lost his closer job and has probably worn out his welcome in New York, frankly. On the other side of the coin is Jeff Hoffman, who’s been nothing short of excellent for two seasons in Philadelphia. But he’s entering his age-32 season and doesn’t have nearly the track record of other relievers who have received qualifying offers in the past. I’d be shocked if he gets one.

Ineligible to Receive

As a reminder, players who’ve appeared for multiple teams in the same season are ineligible to be tendered a qualifying offer. That eliminates Kikuchi and Jack Flaherty. Also ineligible are players who’ve received one in the past, so that rules out Joc Pederson, Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi (assuming he declines his player option), Cody Bellinger (ditto), and, should he opt out, Gerrit Cole.