If you’ve enjoyed watching Keston Hiura hit for the last year or so, you’ll enjoy Kieboom, whose hands work similarly in the box. The efficient loop they create as they accelerate through the hitting zone enables Kieboom to hook and lift stuff on the inner half, including breaking balls, and he’s especially adept at driving stuff away from him out to right. This is a special hitting talent who has performed up through Triple-A as a college-aged shortstop, and Anthony Rendon‘s departure opens the door for at-bats right away.

We don’t really like Kieboom at shortstop. He’s a little heavy-footed and his hands are below average. He’s arguably better-suited for second or third base, but one could argue he’s at least as good as Trea Turner is there right now (Kieboom has worse range but can make more throws), so the short- and long-term fit here may be different. Regardless of the defensive home, Kieboom projects as a middle of the order bat with All-Star talent.

Garcia didn’t have a great statistical 2019, but he was a teenager at Double-A so we’re not weighing that heavily. We care most about Garcia’s ability to hit, and that remains strong. His swing and feel for contact are both very similar to Juan Soto‘s, though of course Garcia lacks that kind of raw thump or plate discipline. Garcia’s a proactive swinger but so far his advanced feel for the barrel has allowed it to work. Most of his extra-base damage is going to come via doubles slashed down the left field line and to the opposite field gap, but there’s a 20 home run ceiling here if he learns to attack the right pitches.

A little thicker and slower than most shortstops, Garcia’s hands and actions are good and he’s probably a better fit at second base. We have him projected as an average everyday player there.

After an up-and-down freshman year at Arkansas, Rutledge transferred to Houston-area junior college powerhouse San Jacinto and immediately looked like a first-round pick, even before the season started. He had trouble getting on the mound in Fayetteville in part due to his command, which still isn’t great, but he has more than enough feel to throw his high-octane stuff over the plate and most lower level hitters can’t handle it. Rutledge is a physical monster at 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds, and has an arm swing familiar to those who saw Lucas Giolito‘s arm action adjustment, typically en vogue with the weighted ball community.

Rutledge has some of the best stuff on Earth, working 96–100 in most outings and mixing in a 65- or 70-grade slider with a curveball a notch below that. His changeup flashes average but is clearly a fourth option, and his command flashes average at times, but should always be somewhat of an issue given his size. Refining the command to be good enough to let his stuff work over long outings is the main development issue here, but it’s worth noting that some clubs were scared off of Rutledge’s medical in the draft, which most notably included surgery on both hips. This could go down the “no one can throw that hard, be that big, and be a healthy 200-inning starter” road, and see Rutledge become a potential closer, or the “how did anyone pass on this offensive lineman with Syndergaard’s stuff” path, and get immediate whoopsies from the industry, much like Nate Pearson has so far. Regardless, he’ll be fun to watch.

There are some long-term health questions with Crowe — his market was diluted by knee and elbow concerns coming out of high school, he’s a bigger-bodied guy, and he blew out about halfway through his sophomore year at South Carolina — but he’s ready for a big league rotation right now. Crowe has above-average stuff, his fastball and pair of breaking balls are all capable of missing bats, and we’ve seen good changeups from him, too. He has imprecise control of everything, and instead just tries to bully hitters with a pretty even mix of the repertoire in competitive locations. He resembles Tanner Roark in many ways and projects to be a starter of similar quality, probably beginning at some point next year.

Denaburg had a loud spring as a high school senior, when he went pitch-for-pitch with Carter Stewart in two showdowns and both became first-round picks. Each has had his troubles since then. Denaburg’s pro debut didn’t happen after signing last summer, as the biceps tendonitis that dinged his draft stock flared up again after signing. In 2019, it looked like he would get to Low-A at some point, but his velocity ticked down and the Nationals held him back in extended ball. Once he built back up (92-94, touching 95 mph) he was set to go to short-season and then Low-A to finish the year. But then he felt something in his shoulder, which led to him being shut down again and never leaving Florida.

At his best, Denaburg would sit 93-95, hit 98 mph, mix in a consistently 60- or 65-grade curveball and an emerging 55-grade changeup with the size and athleticism scouts can project near the front of a rotation. After two years of inconsistent health, expectations are lower, but between Denaburg, Rutledge, and Romero, there is some pretty goofy stuff bouncing around this system; it’ll be exciting if one of them puts it together fully in 2020.

Lara is a bigger, mature-framed pitcher with present velocity. He already sits 92-94, so it’s less of a problem that he lacks traditional physical projection. However, it’s also feasible that Lara becomes more fluid and athletic as he matures, so maybe he’ll back into more velocity that way. Many other traits typical of top high school pitchers — arm action, glove side fastball/slider command, and the slider quality — are also promising here, just without obvious physical projection.

Yean has stuff typical of most late first or early second round high school arms. He has a fairly projectable frame, his heater reaches the mid-90s, there’s precocious changeup and slider feel, and Yean goes right at hitters. He was targeted by sellers at the deadline and has mid-rotation upside.

Cronin has Greg Holland’s build (scaled up a little bit) and arm slot, creating big time carry on his heater, which touches 97. He also has a power, overhand curveball that’s already consistently plus. While at Arkansas, one of Cronin’s teammates would smack him across the face before he entered games. We don’t know if that tradition has continued in pro ball, but as long as he throws strikes and the stuff stays the same, Cronin is a potential high-leverage reliever.

Cate has long been compared to Tim Collins as a smallish power lefty with mid-90s heat in short stints and a knockout breaking ball. Cate was first seen by most scouts in relief for two summers for College Team USA but was always a starter for UConn. His 92-95 mph heater in relief was more 88-92 mph in the rotation and he had forearm tightness early in his draft spring, along with a Tommy John surgery in high school. We mention that amateur background because it’s still the conversation around Cate. The Nats hope he’s still a league-average starter and think some added weight may increase his stamina. But plenty of evaluators just want to see Cate in the role where he’s stood out most (and arguably the role where his arm injuries suggest he belongs), working an inning or two at a time in relief.

The beginning of any story with Romero starts with his background, which includes a litany of off-field issues that pushed a top-10 overall talent to the end of the first round and, most recently, Tommy John surgery. Nationals officials are cautiously optimistic in their accounts of how Romero has been lately, saying his on- and off-field behavior is improving and his physical condition (not always the best) is in a good spot. He returned from surgery to pitch in the instructional league and sat 93-95 mph, throwing strikes. His changeup had moved ahead of his slider just before he blew out and sliders often are the last pitch to come back after surgery, so a fastball-changeup combo will be the main weapons for Romero as he returns on a pitch and innings count.

Due to the innings limitation as he builds back up, there’s a shot that Romero could be fast-tracked in the bullpen if he stays healthy, out of trouble, and in line with his considerable talent. There are some similarities between Romero and Red Sox left-hander Jay Groome: While they’ve both been dogged by makeup issues and TJ surgery, everything seems to be trending the right direction now. Both are 40 FVs at the moment but could be 50s by the end of the year if everything comes together.

Mendoza had some No. 1 overall pick buzz early in his high school senior spring, but ultimately faded a bit down the stretch and his big price tag (plus Scott Boras) led to him enrolling at Florida State, where those concerns played out for three years. Mendoza has massive raw power and a borderline passive late-count approach, which leads to a healthy heaping of true three outcomes. Along with the patient approach, scouts either complain or simply point out Mendoza’s on-field demeanor, which runs from “low blood pressure” to “disinterested.” He looked less like a third baseman over time at Florida State, and the Nationals plan to play Mendoza at first base most of the time going forward. There’s still some projection left: Mendoza could have 70 raw power with a high on-base percentage when he gets to the big leagues, but the margin for error is low and could lead to a platoon role.

Tommy John and some nagging lower body issues limited Antuna to three GCL games and instructs in the DR. He looked a little thicker during instructs, and it’s more likely that he ends up at third base now, but the rest of the profile is the same: He’s still a switch-hitting middle infielder with a pretty, low-ball swing and a frame that might yield considerable raw power. He’s age-appropriate for the Penn League (and starting him in Extended seems smart) but he might skip ahead to full-season ball next spring.

De La Rosa popped up quickly after signing for $300,000 last summer (normally below our radar on signing day) and standing out in stateside instructs. He had a solid pro debut this summer in the GCL as a 17-year-old, and the tools are still present as well: solid average speed, an improved arm that shows average, a chance to play in center field, and average raw power that could improve in the coming years. For those wondering who the next elite international position player prospect will be in this system, he and Roimar Quintana are the new young bats to watch.

A physical young catcher with some pull power, Pineda has been pushed through the minors quickly so far. He went straight to the GCL at age 17, then to a Penn League packed with 21-year-olds at age 18, then to full-season ball in 2019, all for someone who won’t turn 20 until April. He took an offensive dip at least in part because he was playing through a broken finger all year. We still think he’s a bat-first backup, but he has a puncher’s chance to be a regular.

Washington moved Adon into the rotation after he had spent his first two pro seasons in the bullpen, and his velocity dipped a bit during the second half of the year. He has a graceful delivery that he struggles to repeat, which impacts his breaking ball quality and command enough for us to project him in relief. In the bullpen he might sit 94-plus with serious movement, which, even with relatively tepid offspeed projection, puts him in a valuable relief role.

Quintana signed for $820,000 in the Nats’ 2019 July 2nd class as one of three high-dollar signings, behind Lara and left-hander Pablo Aldonis. Quintana made a solid first impression domestically in the instructional league. He’s an average runner with an average arm and above average raw power. He has a well-developed 6-foot, 205 pound frame that reminds some of Marcell Ozuna or a number of Cuban outfielders, but Washington thinks Quintana can play center field for awhile, maybe even long enough to be an everyday player there in the big leagues. With no organized games to go off of, we’re projecting a lot on the bat, but his swing path is direct, there’s raw strength, and he’s already showing opposite field BP power.

Many BYU prospects have an uphill battle to climb against draft models because their Mormon mission takes them away from baseball for a year, and makes them much older than their peers when they’re finally draft eligible. We weren’t really on Cluff pre-draft, but he performed during the summer and his eclectic collection of tools, feel to hit, lefty stick, and the likelihood that he stays on the dirt have him looking like a high-floor bench infielder already, and he’s trending up.

The brawny Read has a long track record of hitting — he’s hit .270 with some pop over the course of several upper-minors seasons — mired somewhat by a 2018 PED suspension. He struggles with righty breaking balls away from him but mashes lefties. His receiving has improved enough that he can catch pitchers who don’t live in the dirt, which makes him a potential third catcher/26th man type who clubs lefties off the bench and starts at first base once in a while.

Bourque and his beat-walking cop mustache ascended through the minor league ranks after he moved to the bullpen and shelved his changeup back in 2018. The Nationals forced him to work only with his fastball during 2018 instructs, and liked enough of what they saw that they put him on the 40-man. He’s a stiff, upright, arm strength relief prospect.

Dyson’s career has been a rollercoaster: lower-profile Gator recruit, breakout freshman, pegged as a potential 1-1 before his sophomore year, then two years and a Cape summer of inconsistent stuff, command, and performance without a major injury. His velo trended back up into the mid-90’s before the draft and the Nationals popped him in the fifth round; he then had a solid pro debut. He’s a sleeper in that he’s showed Top 100 ability — which makes some who see him think there’s a breakout coming — but it’s appeared inconsistently enough that we think he’ll likely wind up in middle relief.

Schaller would have been a draft-eligible sophomore at Vanderbilt, but he lost his true freshman season to Tommy John, so he was a rare draft-eligible redshirt freshman instead. Pitching out of the bullpen in college, Schaller was 94-97. He’s been more 91-94 as a starter in pro ball, but we have him projected as a two-pitch reliever and think the heater will have an extra gear in single-inning outings.

One of the top-billed high schoolers during a superlative year for talent in Southern California, Lewis began garnering Derek Jeter comparisons while he was still an amateur. To a degree, those remain reasonable, though they’re no longer applicable across nearly as much as Lewis’ skillset as they once were. Initially, those comps came from Lewis’ penchant for on-field leadership, some elements of his swing and frame, and, less positively, his future as a defensive shortstop. The Twins took him first overall and cut a below slot deal, as Lewis was seen as one of five options in a tightly-packed top tier of talent.

Throughout his first 18 months as a pro, Lewis had statistical success while being promoted aggressively before a developmental hiccup in 2019. His overall production has slowly come down at each subsequent level, and during a 2019 season split 3-to-1 at Hi- and Double-A, he had a .290 OBP. Don’t let the robust .353/.411/.565 Arizona Fall League line (he went to pick up reps after an oblique strain during the year) and MVP award fool you — Lewis still clearly had issues. His swing is cacophonous — the big leg kick, the messy, excessive movement in his hands — and it negatively impacts Lewis’ timing. He needs to start several elements of the swing early just to catch fastballs, and he’s often late anyway. This also causes him to lunge at breaking balls, which Lewis doesn’t seem to recognize very well, and after the advanced hit tool was a huge driver of his amateur profile, Lewis now looks like a guess hitter. His mannerisms — Nomar-level batting glove tinkering, deep, heavy, deliberate breaths between pitches, constant uniform adjustment — are manic, and they seem to pull focus away from the task at hand rather than grounding him in a ritualistic way, and the game often seems too fast for him.

So why are we still so high on him? We’re betting big on Lewis’ makeup and physical talent. His BP’s were the best in the entire Fall League. He is an exceptional teammate, leader, and worker, who did more early infield work than anyone else Eric saw in the AFL, willing himself to become a viable left side infield defender even though he lacks the traditional grace and fluidity for those positions. We don’t think the swing works as currently constituted — it’s a mechanical departure from when Lewis was successful in high school — but we think it’ll get dialed in eventually because of his athleticism and work habits. Even if some of the pitch recognition stuff proves to be a long-term issue, we still think Lewis will be a versatile defender who plays several premium positions (we have him listed in center field because if we had to pick one spot where we think he’ll eventually be best, that’s it) and hits for considerable power. There may be an adjustment period similar to the one Javier Báez experienced early in his career because of the approach issues, but the star-level talent will eventually shine through.

Larnach hit several balls in excess of 110 mph during Oregon State’s opening weekend of his draft season, and he ended up slugging .652 that year while falling to the back of the first round amid concerns about his defensive ability. Larnach remains a sluggish, diffident outfielder, but he’s very likely to get to much of his titanic raw power in games thanks to the ease with which he generates the pop — Larnach doesn’t swing with violence or effort; it’s just there — and a refined approach. We think he’s a 30-plus homer, high-OBP corner outfielder.

Kirilloff’s numbers weren’t as nutty as they were two seasons ago — .283/.342/.413 down from .348/.392/.578 — but that’s partly because he was on the IL twice with wrist issues. His power output was way down for the first few weeks after he returned from both, which is typical of wrist injuries, but that the issue recurred is somewhat concerning on its own. Healthy Kirilloff is going to hit and hit for power. He can turn on balls most hitters are jammed by because of the way he strides open and clears his hips, but he still has the plate coverage and swing path to lift contact the other way when pitchers work away from him. A thickening build has slowed Kirilloff down, and he’s now begun seeing a lot of time at first base. This, combined with a pretty aggressive approach, makes him somewhat risky from some teams’ perspectives, who see a first baseman with below-average plate discipline, but we think he’s a safe bet to be a .340 to .360 wOBA guy even with how swing-happy he can be.

Duran seemingly drew lots of trade interest while with Arizona. Loose, lean, and wielding premium stuff, his name was rumored to be on some PTBNL lists before he was ultimately traded to Minnesota as part of the Eduardo Escobar deal in 2018. During his first few pro seasons, Duran’s velocity yo-yo’d a bit; at times, he was in the upper-90s, while he was more 91-95 at others. He was also demoted from the Northwest League back to the AZL in 2017 for reasons apparently unrelated to performance. The following spring, not only was Duran’s velocity more stable — in the 93-96 range — but he was throwing strikes and had more consistent secondary stuff.

Duran continued to fill out into 2019 and his velocity kept climbing, settling in the upper-90s and cresting 100. He worked with better angle after the Twins acquired him last summer, a change that improved the playability of his breaking ball without detracting from his changeup’s movement, though that pitch has been de-emphasized based on our sources’ looks. He’s tracking like a mid-rotation starter.

After a breakout 2018, Balazovic spent most of 2019 dominating the Florida State League as a 20-year-old. Perhaps the most important takeaway was that he retained his stuff amid an innings increase, and while he hasn’t yet worked a major league starter’s regimen, he’ll be on pace to do so if he can add 20-30 frames over each of the next two years.

He throws strikes with four pitches, several of which either project to miss bats or do so right now. Chief among them is his fastball, which is tough for hitters to pick up out of Balazovic’s hand as they’re misdirected by his limbs flying all over the place during the delivery. Even with a somewhat lower arm slot, Balazovic’s heater plays at the top of the zone. He can vary the shape of his breaking balls — the slider is the out pitch, the curveball gets dropped in for strikes — and both play up against righties because of the mechanics. And while Balazovic’s glove-side slider command should be enough for him to deal with lefties eventually anyway, his change improved in 2019. He throws an unusually high number of strikes for such a young, lanky, cold-weather arm with a somewhat violent delivery, and he’s had no health or control issues thus far. He pretty firmly projects as a No. 4 starter right now.

Jeffers has answered some of the defensive questions he faced in college, when it was unclear if he’d catch or end up at first base. Eyeball evaluations of his receiving are still mixed but according to our sources (and not just ones with Minnesota), the framing metrics are pretty good. The Twins, along with a growing number of other orgs, have their catchers set up on one knee (some have their receivers ditch it with two strikes, others don’t), which seems to affect how many called strikes they steal, at least in the minors.

Jeffers spent most of his first full pro season at Hi-A Fort Myers (120 wRC+) and had a strong final month at Double-A Pensacola. He has average bat-to-balls skills, above-average thump, and the ability to hit the ball in the air consistently. The athleticism, breaking ball recognition, and, perhaps most importantly, plate coverage are all a tick below average. We’re still a tad concerned Jeffers may have to play first base sometime soon, which is the only thing keeping him from the 50 FV tier.

Thorpe is now pretty far removed from the severe injury issues that plagued him early in his pro career, and he’ll likely be in the Twins rotation all of next year. The flat-planed nature of his fastball enables the pitch to miss bats despite mediocre velocity, but it also makes Thorpe fly ball prone. Of his three secondary pitches, his curveball has the most visually pleasing movement but it’s much slower than his other pitches and might be best if used less than his sweeping slider.

He’s a high probability No. 4/5 starter for us, though there are industry folks who have him in the No. 3/4 area because of the quality of the secondaries.

A growth spurt buoyed Cavaco’s tools and draft stock, and he was last year’s most prominent pop-up high school prospect. He may have had the best frame in the entire draft but had already grown into considerable power as a senior, which he got to in games despite an awkwardly-timed stride. At times clumsy on defense, Cavaco may still be growing into his new body. He was also catching early in high school, and had to move all over the infield during his upperclass days because talented young shortstop Marcelo Mayer went to the same high school. He may end up at second or third base, or get a try in center field if his hands and actions don’t improve. He’s one of the 2019 draft’s higher risk, higher reward prospects.

We were pretty surprised when we sourced Celestino’s exit velos and learned the ball leaves his bat at 90 mph on average, which is above the big league average. We don’t think that means Celestino is going to hit for power, or even that it means he has more raw than we thought, just that he hits the ball hard with consistency, a pervasive trait in this system.

At a compact 6-foot or so, he’s unlikely to grow into much thump. Instead, Celestino is a potential everyday player because of his bat-to-ball skills and his center field defense. Celestino was more of an instincts/feel defender as an amateur, but he’s sped up as he’s grown into his modest frame and projects as a plus glove now. His athleticism is evident not only on defense, but in the batter’s box, too, where Celestino stays well balanced during a long, slow leg kick. The lack of power projection caps his ceiling, but we like the defense and bat enough to consider Celestino a potential regular, and a low-variance sort of prospect.

Urbina was one of the more advanced hitters in his July 2 signing class from both a bat control and physical development perspective. He was also one of the youngest. Currently an above-average runner, there’s a fair chance he ends up in left field due to a lack of top-end speed, though it might depend on how his body develops.

Urbina’s power projection is somewhat limited by his size, which may be an issue if he does eventually move to a corner. He’s an explosive rotator though, and this guy’s power doesn’t just come from size and strength, but rather a an upper body that unwinds kind of like Yuli Gurriel’s does. Urbina also has many promising bat-to-ball traits — timing, hand-eye coordination, all-fields feel — at a young age. He’s one of the high priority Florida minor league/extended spring prospects to see, and we currently have him FV’d just a shade behind the top prep outfielders in the 2020 class.

He didn’t post a strong 2019 statline (about .250/.300/.360 in the Florida State League) but we’re still on Miranda because of his ability to move the barrel all over the zone, and because he generates consistent doubles power despite being very short to the ball. It makes Miranda tough to beat within the strike zone. Instead, the way to deal with him is to hope he chases stuff out of the zone (and even then he often finds ways to make contact). There are some holes in the swing in the sense that Miranda can’t do damage with pitches all over the zone, but he rarely swings and misses. We’ve shaded his FV down from last year’s 45 because we now think he ends up playing more third base than second in the long run, but we still really like Miranda’s bat control and quality of contact.

There are instances when knowing less about a prospect actually improves the industry’s view of them. There’s space to dream and fill in the gaps in the profile with optimism, as we may not know that relevant underlying issues lurk beneath the surface. Such was the case with Javier, who signed for a IFA franchise record $4 million back in 2015 and basically missed two of his four pro seasons due to quad and hamstring injuries, along with labrum surgery.

Finally (mostly) healthy in 2019, Javier went to full-season ball, struck out a ton, and hit .177. His bat-to-ball ability and pitch recognition are not great, but part of that is surely because he hasn’t seen a lot of pro pitching due to the injuries. We’re not moving off of Javier entirely — he’s just too talented. He still has a frame typical of power-hitting SS/3B types, he’s athletic enough to play either of those spots, and he already has notable raw power for his age. But in the last year we’ve gone from not knowing much about his contact/approach to knowing it’s either not good or lags way behind because of the lack of reps.

Canterino regularly showed a plus fastball/breaker combo (a big, mid-90s two-plane breaker) as a sophomore and the summer before his draft spring, but there was some effort and violence to the delivery, and thus perceived relief risk. At that point, some teams saw enough strike-throwing to project him as a starter and look past the delivery. In his draft spring, his stuff was down a bit as Canterino appeared to be dialing things down to aim for more strikes and go deeper into games. When uncorked, we expect him to bump 96 with big life, and incorporate a mix of two breaking balls rather than rely heavily on the slider and barely use his curve. If he can throw strikes with his breaking stuff, he has a chance to start and miss bats with three pitches. If he can’t, he might be a high-leverage reliever.

Wallner hit for power all three years of college, even while pitching part-time as a freshman and sophomore, but an arm injury kept him off the mound in his junior year, where some clubs thought he had real pro potential. He had some of the most explosive raw thump in the 2019 draft class, drawing 70 or 80 grades from scouts, and will hit balls 10 rows into the bleachers even when he doesn’t get fully extended. He has some moderate swing-and-miss issues characteristic of hitters who have power-driven approaches, which were made more evident after Wallner signed. But he’s also willing to take a walk, so the power and OBP give him a shot to be a regular in right field.

Sands’ stuff is nasty enough that were it not for his long history of injuries, he’d be in the 40+ or 45 FV tier on this list. His fastball will creep into the mid-90s with big time tail, the kind that can run off the hip of left-handed hitters and back over the plate. He also has a wiping, two-plane breaking ball that’s consistently plus. He was on the 60-day IL in 2018 and made three IL trips in 2019, though one was for a blister and another for a calf strain, not arm stuff. A potential No. 4 starter (more likely No. 4/5), Sands turns 23 next year and should reach Double-A.

A stocky, hard-throwing starter with upper-90s heat, Colina’s fastball doesn’t play as an elite pitch despite his velocity — it has middling movement and he’s an extreme short strider who loses two ticks of perceived velo — but it’s tough to square up because of how hard it is. Similarly, Colina’s short, cuttery slider is effective because of how firm it is, and because he has excellent glove-side command of it. He also has a firm changeup that may be shelved, or at least de-emphasized since Colina moved to the bullpen late in 2019. His strike-throwing ability (there’s pretty precise slider command but bully-you in the zone fastball control) might enable him to go multiple innings, in which case you could argue he’s a 40+ FV.

Things are coming into focus a little more for Rooker, who remains one of the more interesting and prominent “pop-up senior or redshirt junior” prospects (like Kody Hoese in 2019), who the industry often struggles to contextualize. The background here is odd. As a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, Rooker hit .324/.376/.528 with 11 homers at Mississippi State, and the Twins drafted him in the 38th round. He didn’t sign, returned to school, hit .287/.496/.810, with 23 homers and 18 steals, and was drafted 35th overall. Nobody was totally sure what to make of such remarkable improvement, and Rooker lives in the dreaded right/right 1B/DH bucket for most evaluators, but he had among the best raw power and exit velos in his draft class and emphatically torched the best conference in college baseball.

Rooker has moved quickly since entering pro ball (he needed to, as he’s already 25) and played his entire second full season at Triple-A, where he mashed (.280/.398/.535), but his inability to deal with breaking balls is worrisome. We think he’s more of a platoon 1B/DH/LF type, maybe a low-end regular at one of those.

Enlow has developed a pretty strong four-pitch mix in pro ball. His fastball sits in the mid-90s early in starts before settling in around 93. It’s more of a sinker/velo-centric fastball than one with bat-missing life, and the same goes for Enlow’s power, upper-80s changeup. The bat-misser in the arsenal is a cutter/slider in the upper-80s that has serious length when Enlow locates it to his glove side. He has a slower, two-planed slurve he can throw for strikes, but it isn’t an impact pitch. Right now he looks like a No. 4/5 starter, but there’s a No. 4 ceiling if the command beats our projections, which seems possible given Enlow’s age.

We have Severino projected as a three-true-outcomes middle infielder à la Rickie Weeks, or peak Mark Bellhorn and Dan Uggla. He’s a bulky (especially for 20) switch-hitter who takes giant, uppercut rips. He missed much of 2019 due to a thumb fracture (he suffered torn ligaments, as well), so he may start 2020 back at Cedar Rapids and need to perform to be promoted. The power/middle infield combo gives him ceiling, while the strikeouts and rapidly maturing frame also make him quite risky.

Part of Minnesota’s return from New York for Lance Lynn, Rijo is a hyper-efficient strike thrower whose curveball moves like a Wiffle ball, seemingly floating as it approaches the plate before it begins to bend and dive away from right-handed hitters. Because it’s a slower, loopy pitch, it may not miss bats against upper-level hitters, but it’s hard to square up because of how much depth it has, and Rijo locates it well.

So, too, can he spot his low-90s fastball where his catcher asks for it, working up at the letters and to both corners of the plate at will. His ceiling will likely be limited by stuff quality — though only 20, Rijo is physically mature and unlikely to grow into much more velocity — but the command makes him a high-probability backend starter and one who could move quickly.

Mechanical funk, glove-side breaking ball command, and a viable changeup all enable Smeltzer to induce weak contact despite meager velocity. He worked in a multi-inning capacity at the big league level last year and projects to do so going forward.

Now that he’s a solid defender (he was not in high school), Rortvedt’s ball/strike recognition and strength-driven raw power give him a chance to play a prominent big league role if the two can work together. He can hit for power on pitches up and away from him (which he takes the other way), and, when he can catch up to them, on pitches down-and-in, which he golfs out to his pull side. Right now he looks more like a backup, but Rortvedt has tweaked his swing a bit since high school and perhaps more can be done so he’s not driving so much into the ground.

Winder has some interesting rotation piece elements — a broad, square-shouldered, 6-foot-5 frame, a repeatable delivery, an arm slot that enables the fastball to compete in the zone — and the development of his secondaries will determine if he gets there or ends up in a lesser role. He was old for the Midwest League in 2019, but he was also a late Day Two pick out of a very small school, so we’re not discounting his numbers too much. He could be a four-pitch backend starter.

He’s had some injury stuff and isn’t very mobile, but Blankenhorn now has a track record of hitting up through Double-A. He makes consistent, hard contact but without a lot of lift. You want to hide this guy at second base or left field and let him mash.

Steer is a slightly stiff, hit-over-power, muscular infielder from Oregon who the Twins took in the third round last summer. He projects into the late-career Asdrúbal Cabrera role, a bat-driven, multi-positional infielder.

Baddoo has some promising physical ingredients — speed, raw power — seasoned by high walk rates. He missed most of 2019 because he needed Tommy John in mid-May. He lacks deft barrel accuracy, but Baddoo has run well above-average walk rates to this point and he may be able to get to most of his power by hunting the right pitches, even if his swing’s a little grooved. He’s tracking like a power/OBP fourth outfielder or platoon guy.

Wade intrigues as the larger half of a corner outfield platoon. He’s not exactly tooled up, but he walks a lot — more than he strikes out against right-handed pitchers, in fact — and he’ll make up for some of what he lacks in power with rangy, corner outfield defense. It’s not spectacular, but there’s a clear role here.

Stashak spent two years at Cumberland County College before heading to St. John’s, where he had one statistically middling season for the Red Storm. He got $100,00 on Day Three of the 2015 draft and reached Hi-A as a starter before two injuries forced a late-season move to the bullpen in 2017. Stashak’s fastball/breaking ball combo was very effective during that initial run out of the ‘pen, and the Twins left him there. He’s since had two dominant relief seasons, including very low walk rates for a reliever, while reaching Triple-A. The fastball plays in large part due to it’s vertical movement, and his breaking ball shape varies enough that it may be two different pitches, but for now he projects as a two-pitch reliever with a modern approach: fastballs up, breaking balls down.

Holland is the classic toolsy college player who hasn’t even put things together yet and performed. One scout called him a “bull in a china shop” defensively because while he has the physical ability to play all three up-the-middle positions, he lacks feel and instincts. Holland had lots of trouble hitting during his draft spring due in large part to tinkering with his mechanics, but he was a fringe first rounder before that, so he was a nice buy-low lottery ticket in the fifth round.

As had long been prophesied, Alcala began transitioning to a relief role in the middle of 2019 and ended his season with a September sip of espresso in Minnesota’s bullpen. As you might expect, the move corresponded with a small jump in velo, as Alcala was 91-96 as a starter last year, then 94-97 out of the bullpen. He has set-up man stuff — the heater and a vertically-breaking power slider — but poor pitch execution will likely limit him to middle relief.

Minnesota’s top 2019 signee is very short to the ball, has great hand-eye coordination, a swing that has lift out front, and hit in games when seen as an amateur. Rodriguez has a tweener build and speed, so the bat may need to max out as plus or better for there to be a role here, but that seems plausible based on the amateur looks.

It was an eventful, strange 2019 for Julien, who was coming off a very promising freshman year at Auburn during which he hit 17 dingers and slashed .278/.398/.556. He was ruled eligible as a sophomore not because of his age but because he had attended a year of secondary school in Canada before heading to college, which made him three years removed from high school. He was suddenly a young-for-the-class college bat who might have gone very high if he’d hit like he did the year before and got better at second base. He did neither. Julien’s stock fell early during the season before he got hot during a tumultuous postseason run by Auburn. The Twins drafted him on Day Three. Julien tweeted he was coming back to school, went to the Cape, where had a great two weeks, and the Twins offer rose to just shy of $500,000, inspiring him to sign. Then he had Tommy John in August.

We currently view his as a positionless, bat-first college prospect who has a chance to have enough in-game power to have some kind of big league role.

Signed just before the clock struck midnight on the 2018 July 2 period, Cano got a $750,000 bonus from the Twins, using the international bonus money acquired from the Rangers in the Zack Granite trade. In late March, Cano touched 95 while throwing for teams in Miami but he topped out at at least 97 in the past while pitching on the Cuban National Team and for Ciego de Avila. You could argue he should have been developed as a starter because of his repertoire depth and the way the pitch mix, which lacks a swing and miss offering, plays, but the Twins put him in the bullpen immediately.

It’s a sinker/slider/splitter look that generates groundballs more than it does strikeouts. He’s nearly 26 and should move quickly as a relief piece.

Moran has a dominant out-pitch changeup, though the rest of his profile is pretty vanilla. His body and control backed up in 2019, but he remains a likely relief piece.

Eyeball evaluations of Gordon don’t match his 2019 statline. He’s more of a bench/depth type now than potential low-end regular at second or shortstop.

A twitchy, good-framed athlete with explosive hands, Garry’s a toolsy lower-level prospect with swing and miss volatility. He was a $225,000 sign out of high school, has a pretty exciting skillset, and performed in the Appy League until a putrid August tanked his statline for the summer. He has concerning underlying stats but is tooled-up enough to monitor closely in the Midwest League next year.

Camargo is a very physical 20-year-old catcher who is currently an average receiver and going to an org that has shown an ability to improve how catchers frame. His bat head drags into the zone, which causes him to be late, but he’s so strong that he can still make impact contact the other way. His exit velos are huge for a 20-year-old: 91 mph on average with a hard hit rate of 47%, which is a 65 on the scale. It’s going to be interested to see what happens with the body and how that impacts his ability to catch, and his approach is enough of an issue that it will likely detract from the power production.

A fifth rounder from a small, D-II school in Pennsylvania, Vallimont was traded to help balance the Sergio Romo deal with Miami. He has a fastball with traits teams covet with increasing frequency. He only sits 89-93 and tops at 95, but his arm angle and ability to really backspin the fastball creates big life on the pitch, enabling him to beat hitters at the top of the zone. He’s struck out a lot of guys (29% on the year) and was promoted to Hi-A before the trade, which is fine for a 22-year-old but impressive for someone who came out of such a small program just last year.

Gray had a breakout junior year at Wright State, growing into raw and game power while also doubling his walk total. He has a good frame, and good hands and baseball athleticism, but is a hit-over-power, late-count, fringe passive/patient type who likely won’t show much in terms of batting average.

There’s very little precedent for someone with Ober’s velocity having big league success, but it’s clear why his mid-80s fastball has been dominant to this point. His size and deceptive, overhand release point create tough angle on his stuff, and he misses bats at the top of the zone. Ober also has a plus changeup. It might work in a relief role.

Hamilton was a great defensive third baseman in college who took to catching in pro ball. He’s an interesting 26th-man candidate as a third catcher and defensive replacement at various positions.

Stocky and physical, Mack is converting to catcher after spending his first two pro seasons as an infielder. He has some strength-driven power that should at least enable him to profile as a backup if the conversion works out.

Downs has been a polished, advanced hitter for his age dating way back to high school. He’s not a shortstop for me and, in my opinion, his thicker lower half means his likely future home is as a shift-aided second baseman at maturity. He’s short back to the ball with some pop, his swing is bottom-hand heavy, which leaves him somewhat vulnerable to velo in on his hands, but he’s selective enough to swing at pitches he can damage. Despite the patience and bat control, I think he ends up with closer to average contact ability but fully actualized power production, a well-rounded offensive package that cleanly profiles at second base. His average exit velo was 88 mph last year, and there’s not a lot of room on the body, so that might be all.

Casas was one of the more heavily scouted underclassman high school prospects in recent memory, and stood out while hitting in the heart of the lineup for South Florida-powerhouse American Heritage, various Team USA squads, and at travel showcases and tournaments. Some of that success was probably because he was one of the oldest prospects in the 2019 graduating class, which prompted him to accelerate his schooling in 2017 and reclassify for the 2018 draft. Moving up a year made him age-appropriate for a high schooler in their draft year; at 18.4, he was basically average for a prep player. With that early-career acclaim came a change in the way opposing pitchers approached Casas. They began to pitch around him, and scouts often left his games having seen him swing just once or twice because he walked constantly. Luckily Casas had a long track record of hitting in games, had participated in multiple home run derbies during his amateur summers, and posted gaudy exit velocities during team pre-draft workouts, so clubs knew what his offensive potential was.

He has good hands and a plus arm that helped him pitch into the low-90’s on the mound, but is a well-below average runner with poor lateral mobility. He played third base after signing, though mostly during instructs, as Casas injured his thumb sliding for a ground ball in June, needed surgery, and barely played during the summer. But expectations are that he’ll move across the diamond to first base in 2019 or 2020, where we think he’ll be quite good. Casas’ calling card is his bat and there’s potential for a 60 hit, 70 game power, 80 raw power kind of package. The margin for error for teenage, first base-only types is very small, but we’re also very high on Casas’ bat.

It’s fairly important to view Mata’s performance through an age-appropriate lens. The Red Sox hit the accelerator on his development early (a common occurrence in this system) and sent Mata right to full season ball in 2017 when he was just 18-years old. That gives context to Mata’s 2018 struggles; he couldn’t throw strikes (he had a 17% walk rate), his stuff was up and down throughout the year, and he dealt with a back injury. Several of those things improved in 2019. More purposeful deployment of a robust, four-pitch mix dropped Mata’s walk rate to an acceptable 9%, and his stuff was more consistent even though he missed a month with a shoulder strain. And that stuff? A sinker up to 99 (it won’t miss bats, but it’s tough to square up), a two-plane breaking ball that he’ll throw for strike one or as a putaway pitch, a changeup with movement that mirrors the sinker, and a cutter/slider that Mata is still in the early stages of harnessing.

Because the fastball is more of a sinker, secondary execution and command will be necessary for him to miss as many bats as possible, and there are forces opposing one another when it comes to projecting his command. On the one hand, he’s only 20 and has huge stuff. On the other, he’s at best a fringe athlete, and has a relieverish delivery. This could break in a number of different ways, but unless Mata keeps getting hurt or his control totally unravels like it did two seasons ago, he’s going to be a core part of a big league staff. For now, we expect that to be in a 120ish inning capacity.

If we agree that strikeout rates in excess of 33% are a hinderance sufficient to at least limit playing time, if not a roster spot altogether, looking back at how big leaguers hit in the minors can help us sift through current prospects. Here is the list of qualified 2019 big league hitters with the highest strikeout rates in the majors (all between 27% and 32%), along with their strikeout rates at Double-A: Rougie Odor (16%), Domingo Santana (29%), Ryan McMahon (27%), Eugenio Suarez (20%), Franmil Reyes (23%), Luke Voit (15%), Javy Baez (28%), Yoan Moncada (30%), Jackie Bradley (18%), Khris Davis (19%). Most of these players saw a dramatic increase in strikeouts once they got to the big leagues. Those with sky-high Double-A strikeout rates who have gone on to become star big leaguers are all physical freaks, super-human talents; you can include Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo, who were hurt in 2019 and did not qualify for the list, among them.

Dalbec, whose struggles with whiffs date back to his days in college, struck out 28% of the time at Double-A. That is a strong indication he will probably strike out a ton, probably too much to be an everyday player. But he does have thunderous, all-fields power and he’s athletic enough to handle third base despite his considerable size. He’s also shown improved patience at the plate. We think all of this will combine to create a viable role player or low-end regular at third base, but we acknowledge there’s risk that the hit tool bottoms out.

It’s fairly common for a prospect’s trade value to be affected by something circumstantial, but Song’s situation is unique. He was clearly a first round talent ahead of last year’s draft, but it was unclear where he’d be picked because of his military commitment. Currently, service academy policy states Song must complete two years of Naval service. The Trump administration repealed an Obama-era rule that allowed athletes to petition for an exemption in order to pursue pro sports or some other activity that might bolster recruitment or the image of the military in general. Whether this rule is reinstated via executive action will have a significant impact on Song’s future. He’ll either enter pro ball full-time soon, and perhaps move quickly thanks to the quality of his stuff, or he’ll be away from baseball for two years and return when he’s nearly 25.

Song works fast and throws hard. He was up to 99 during Team USA’s Premier12 scrimmages in Arizona, his slider is plus, and he will mix in the occasional knee-buckling rainbow curveball. He at least profiles in a high-leverage relief role given the current composition of his stuff and control, and perhaps more than that if he’s put into the development pipeline quickly. If not, we can’t anticipate what’ll happen to his stuff because of the layoff. It’s tough to wrangle just how that impacts Song’s standing as a prospect even if it doesn’t impact his talent as currently constituted.

Jimenez is a unique prospect, and the one we had the most trouble nailing down throughout this process. He is a true 80 runner and has a running back build at a physical 5-foot-11, but has little power to his game due to a very simple, opposite-field, slap-oriented approach, especially from the left side. While both swings are concerning for several reasons (bat path, balance, varied lower half use), there is unmistakable feel for contact and impressive hand-eye coordination. Due to the approach and swing, Jimenez’s exit velos are low enough to be in a sort of danger zone, and he’s not physically projectable. Any hope for impact contact has to come from projection on the swing itself, and Jimenez shows more pop in BP and he hasn’t been switch-hitting for very long, so it’s possible.

We don’t want to overthink this one, and even though the swing needs polish, this is a plus-plus athlete with what the org thinks is plus-plus makeup, elite speed, and impact defense and arm strength. On top of all this, Jimenez led the college-heavy New York-Penn League in hitting as a 19 year-old primarily hitting left-handed, something he started doing just two years ago in instructional league. He’s also the type of player who we don’t mind projecting on a bit as a premium athlete with premium makeup and adjustability, since he’s more likely to handle failure and change in pro ball better than most.

Teams were divided on Lugo before the draft, perhaps because he had a slow start to his spring and was a little tougher to see than the typical prospect in the Southeast — scouts had to fly to Puerto Rico the day before and could only get in one game a day while they were there, whereas they could easily have seen five to six quality games if they hung around major metro areas for the same period. As such, if higher ups got a bad look at Lugo early, they likely didn’t go back in. That seems to be what happened here, and explains why Lugo fell past where we anticipated given his skillset and physical projection.

Lugo isn’t especially toolsy, but we think he’s likely to stick at short and develop something close to average offensive tools, which gives him a shot to be an everyday player.

Cannon’s amateur stock was founded on two years of elite statistical performance, including a .390/.480/.640 line as a junior and more walks than strikeouts during the course of his career. He has a surprising amount of power, both for a hitter who played half his games at cavernous Hi Corbett Field in Tucson, and one who has such a conservative-looking swing that lacks explosive involvement of the lower half.

Cannon can’t play shortstop, but has a shot to play second or third (some scouts have him in left field). A move will make it more important for the power to play in pro ball, which may require a relatively simple swing change. That didn’t happen immediately after Cannon signed, but it doesn’t have to unless poor performance makes it necessary.

Houck became famous pretty early in his college career because he was the ace of Team USA as an underclassman, slinging in a sinkering 96 and a plus slider. Scouts who weren’t as enthusiastic about his changeup, or arm slot, or the length of his arm action, or the way his stuff would flatten out and his command would back up later in starts thought he was surely a reliever. The Red Sox had Houck change his delivery and arm action for the first half-dozen or so starts in 2018, focusing on a more traditional four-seam fastball approach. It didn’t work, and Boston let him go back to what he had been doing later in the year; his dominant final two months of 2018 reflect his comfort with this approach.

We think Houck’s likely outcome is as a multi-inning power reliever who dominates righties with strikeouts and groundballs, though some see a starter in the mold of Justin Masterson. He can sink it, cut it, his slider is death to righties, and he’ll bully lefties with the fastball enough to get by, just not if they get multiple looks at him.

The trajectory of Duran’s rise is unique. During collegiate scrimmages in the fall of 2017, scouts saw a big, athletic second baseman who was just okay defensively, had an all-fields line drive approach without much pop, and plus to plus-plus speed. Duran had a fine junior spring, but hit for almost no power (which perhaps should be expected in a pitcher-friendly home park like Blair Field in Long Beach), and slipped to the seventh round as a nearly-22-year-old with a modest statistical track record.

After signing, the Red Sox had Duran change his swing a bit in BP to see if they could tap into something more, and he started raking at Low-A. Duran had 13 extra base hits in 253 PA in 2018 for Long Beach State; across two pro levels, he had 28 extra base hits in 302 PA, including 11 triples. Once we got a look at Duran up against elite peers at the Futures Game, and for an extended stretch of the Fall League, it became clear he has poor outfield instincts and likely won’t have the in-game pop he showed early in the year. He can fly and he has relevant contact skills, but no clear position and not enough power to overcome that. His outfield defense has to improve, and even then he’s likely a fourth outfielder or low-end regular.

A heavily-used college reliever, Ward was moved to the rotation in pro ball, added a cutter, and raced to Hi-A in his first full season. He may still end up as a reliever, but his athleticism and repertoire depth make it likely to be in a multi-inning role if he can’t be a fourth or fifth starter.

It’s pronounced “bey-o” like mayo, not “bell-o” like jello, so we can’t require that you read this blurb with Tracy Morgan’s voice in your head. Bello spent 2018 as a 19-year-old in the DSL, then was skipped over two levels and sent right to full-season ball last year. He ended up throwing nearly twice as many innings as he had the year before, but rather than show fatigue toward the end of the season, Bello actually had his better starts during the second half of the summer. During those he’s bump 98, miss both right- and left-handed bats with his changeup, and flash an occasionally nasty slider.

The movement profile on Bello’s fastball is mediocre, but he’s a loose, semi-projectable 20-year-old so more velo might be coming to offset the lack of action. Realistically, this is a backend starter, but there’s more variance because of the chance of a velo uptick.

Liu was one of the surprise prospects to emerge from this year’s J2 class, receiving the Red Sox’s second-highest bonus of this year’s crop ($750,000) after the team saw a handful of shorter relief outings before this fall’s Premier12 tournament. He signed as a 20-year-old out of college in Taiwan; most top Taiwanese talents sign at age 18 out of high school. The Red Sox were on Liu at that age as an infielder, but he took a step forward as a reliever recently, hitting anywhere from 98 to 101 mph depending on whose radar gun you were looking at.

Liu is small but very athletic. His slider is above average to plus pretty consistently, while his splitter flashes similarly. He also mixed in a curveball as a fourth pitch. Already 20, and with almost zero track record on the mound other than a handful of innings, Liu is obviously risky but might also just be scratching the surface of something. Boston felt better about his makeup than many teams could have due to their history with him as an infielder, and because they had first-hand locker room dope from Premier12 teammate, and Red Sox infielder, Tzu-Wei Lin. Liu will likely see action in extended spring training and Low-A in 2020.

It was somewhat important for Decker to come out of the gate fast as a pro because of industry concern over the leap Northeast high school hitters need to make, and Decker was old for his high school class. A wrist injury meant he sat for most of his first pro summer when he would have first been able to get his feet wet against pro pitching, and the leap to the Penn League the next summer proved to be too much; he struck out 30% of the time for Lowell. We’re still on the power, lift in the swing, size, speed underway, and physicality, but Decker needs to hit because he’s a corner-only guy, and he hasn’t done that yet.

As early as his freshman year of high school, Groome was pegged by those who scouted him as a potential high first-round pick. He was graceful, projectable, and already had average big league stuff almost two years before he was even eligible to be drafted. That stuff just kept improving, peaking the summer before his draft year when Groome would work 92-96 mph in short stints with an easy, plus curveball while folding in an average to above changeup, doing so with a big, athletic frame and starter’s delivery, all of which led to him being mentioned as a possible No. 1 overall pick. But a myriad of concerns unrelated to Groome’s talent dogged him more than most prep prospects, most of them stemming from an unstable living situation that involved drugs and guns, for which his father was later arrested. That, combined with a quickly thickening frame and issues with his commitment to Vanderbilt, contributed to his fall out of the top 10 picks of the 2016 draft.

Since signing, Groome hasn’t been on the mound much, making just 20 total pro starts due to a back injury and, eventually, Tommy John surgery. He came back from TJ late last August and got four innings of work before instructional league, where he got another eight to 10 frames, working 93-95 two innings at a time. Groome is Rule 5 eligible next winter and he’s never thrown more than 55 innings in any of his four pro seasons. Those two things create some pressure and make it likely that the Red Sox either really need to push him next year, creating more risk that he’ll get hurt yet again, or that he’ll just be bullpen’d to give him a better shot at contributing in 2021. Does he arguably have more upside than all but a handful of others in this org? Sure, but circumstances impacting his development make it highly unlikely he gets there.

An athletic, multi-positional player who spent his early college career at shortstop, Wong now sees time behind the plate, as he did throughout most of college, and at second and third base. Like most of the hitters who grew up in the Dodgers org, he hits the ball in the air a lot and strikes out at a concerning rate. That, along with a few defensive flaws that may still be corrected with time, especially as he learns to handle upper-level stuff in the dirt, probably limits Wong to a unique kind of utility role or a backup catcher and infielder role similar to Austin Barnes‘, which is a bit better than just a flat 40 FV prospect.

Flores was the star of last fall’s instructional league in Florida and looked like a potential everyday player in the Willy Adames mold. He skipped the GCL last year and flopped in the Penn League, his body backed up a little bit, and he generally looked less explosive and twitchy. We shaded his FV down a half grade, and consider it more of a developmental bump than the start of a trend right now.

Bonaci is the big emerging sleeper on this year’s list. He signed for $290,000 in the 2018 J2 class but has taken a significant step forward since then; team asked the Red Sox for him at the 2019 deadline, as many are covering the DSL with pro scouts now. Bonaci isn’t huge at 5-foot-10 but has some raw power from both sides, including surprisingly high in-game exit velos. He figures to stick at shortstop because of premium arm strength and suitable lateral range. Boston didn’t do traditional instructs during the fall, so Bonaci has still largely only been seen by scouts in the DR, making him a high-priority extended spring training evaluation in 2020.

This is a traditional right field profile, with big power, and a big frame. But Gonzalez also has advanced acumen as a hitter, more than the rest of the deep DSL/GCL group, so he’s currently at the head of that class. He has a long-term shot to be a regular.

Howlett was a known prospect in Florida for years and was on a trajectory to go in the top five rounds after a strong start to his spring, but he finished poorly, including a brutal NHSI tournament where all 30 teams had multiple scouts on hand. He swung and missed a ton in front of dozens of high level evaluators, when many had pegged him as the sleeper prospect to break out at the event. The Red Sox found out after signing him that he had an issue with his contacts, giving him particular trouble in day games (which all of the games at NHSI were), and got him squared away before his pro career began.

Howlett hit six homers in 43 pro games with a manageable strikeout rate that surprised many amateur scouts who had discounted his hitting ability earlier that year. The bird’s eye view of Howlett is that he’s a stiff righty bat with power, but he’s short to the ball and has a little better feel to hit than most strength-driven mashers.

Chatham’s rather lengthy injury history becomes less problematic when you accept that his likely future role is of a part-time, bench variety. He’s a bunch of 45s on offense, he plays a fine shortstop, and last season he started seeing more time at other positions, mostly second base. He played some left field and third base out of necessity in the fall because some of his teammates went home early. He has an outside shot to be Boston’s starting second baseman next year, but we have him projected as a utility man long-term.

This is the only draft-and-stash guy selected in this year’s Rule 5. If Arauz sticks on Boston’s roster it’ll be because he plays a capable middle infield utility role during his first year with the org. The profile for such a role would seem to be here. Arauz’s arm, hands, and actions are all good enough for shortstop, he’s a switch-hitter with good feel for contact, he just lacks typical big league strength and physicality right now. If the bat isn’t getting knocked out of his hands in big league spring training, maybe he’ll stick, but to me the probability is low here.

Murphy is a lefty with a changeup up to 96, which might be enough to get him to the big leagues in some capacity. San Diego’s track record of developing pitching isn’t great (a lot of high profile high schoolers have gone there and gotten worse lately), so maybe pro development will unlock something more than the relief projection we currently have on him.

Lopez was Boston’s top 2018 July 2 signee. He’s well-rounded — he lacks a plus tool at the moment — but has the frame to grow into a couple, and the hit tool might get there as well. Right now, his chief skills are his baserunning, defensive instincts, and feel for the strike zone. This is a high probability teenager, if there is such a thing; Lopez’s ceiling will be dictated by how much he hits.

Wilson has some carrying tools. He has grown into power, his swing creates natural lift, which enables it to play in games, and he has plus straightline speed. His feel for contact is very limited, so he exists in that Keon Broxton zone, where clear big league tools often get squeezed off rosters by someone with similar skills who hits left-handed, or boasts some other marginal improvement.

Chacon signed for $900,000 as the top bonus in Boston’s J2 class this summer. He’s a plus runner and center fielder for now, but there’s some expectation that he’ll slide over to right field as he fills out, as his arm is soildly average and may get a bit better. Chacon is a hit-first prospect at this point but there’s projection and some present raw power, so he should be able to profile as an everyday type if he continues developing.

A Day Three pick in 2018, Politi pitched well enough out of the bullpen last year that the Sox stretched him out late in the season and gave him a handful of starts. During that stretch he struck out 61 in 47 innings. Politi is deceptive, his fastball has ride at the top of the zone, and he commands his slider and will flash an occasionally good changeup. It’s an interesting package with the arrow pointing up.

We tabbed Feltman as the player Most Likely to Be First to the Majors from the 2018 draft class. He spent his entire first full pro season at Double-A missing bats but also missing locations — a lot — and his velocity was down a little bit. The fastball still has bat-missing traits, but unless there’s a rebound, Feltman is more likely to be a middle reliever than a late-inning arm.

Zeferjahn emerged as a Kansas power prep righty in a class with Riley Pint and Joey Wentz, but wasn’t consistent enough in the spring to have his price met. He was mostly the same at Kansas and went in the third round last summer as a power arm with a standout fastball and above average breaker. His delivery and command are still a work in progress, and one Red Sox source called him a ball of clay, with seventh or eighth inning reliever the most likely outcome.

Thick but athletic, as long as Marcano keeps his body in check he should remain agile enough to catch and perhaps be quite good back there. Offensively, his present skills indicate future viability, but not impact. He’s on the long-term radar.

For a long time this system has been lousy with undersized, relatively unprojectable pitchability types, and Ramirez is the strike-thrower du jour. He had a very successful 13-start stretch in the New York-Penn League — 61 innings, 63 punch outs, 16 walks — working off of three pitches. He has a vertical arm slot and hand position that create backspin that will let his fastball play atop the strike zone, though he doesn’t work up there as often as he could. His slider is average but has effective, vertical movement, and he has fairly advanced arm-side changeup feel.

An average athlete with a smaller frame, there’s no overt physical projection that allows us to get excited about Ramirez growing into a monster fastball, so instead we think he’s a developmental fifth starter.

Had Feliz been born in the States, he’d probably be playing left tackle on Friday nights. Still relatively crude as a hitter (and we’re always skeptical of physically mature hitters performing in the DSL), Feliz is a leviathan with plus-plus raw power. He’ll likely be limited to left field or first base, especially if he somehow gets bigger, which, combined with relatively raw pitch recognition, makes him a prospect of extreme risk. Ordinarily at this stage, this is just a 35 FV guy for us, but this dude’s size and power at his age is rare, in the Luken Baker/Josh Naylor area.

Rodriguez carved up the GCL — 58 strikeouts, 9 walks, 47 innings — by virtue of both advanced stuff (he already has a quality changeup and curveball) and pitchability. He is sleight of build and doesn’t throw very hard, so there’s not big fastball projection here, but Rodriguez does spin his heater much more than is usual for someone who only throws in the low-90s, so it might be an impact pitch even if he only ends up with average velo. He’s a candidate to begin 2020 in full season ball based on how Boston handles polished teenage arms.

After four fruitless pro seasons as an outfielder, Aybar moved to the mound in 2018. At times, he is dominant — one source spoke of seeing him strike out four of the six hitters he faced in an outing while breaking the bats of the other two — but he’s not consistent enough to be relied on in a big league bullpen right now. The Red Sox put him on the 40-man, so how he develops during the early part of next year is important. The body, athleticism, arm strength (94-97, up to 100), and fledgling feel for spin are exciting.

This is a pure athletic/frame projection prospect who has a well-rounded game, including some current feel to hit. Vaughn runs well enough to play center field for now, though his frame is such that we anticipate an eventual move to right.

Since signing in July, Perales has added 10 pounds of muscle and several ticks to his fastball. He’s now up to 95 and has nascent curveball feel, enough that his early developmental focus is on finding a changeup grip. Perales’ frame lacks overt projection, so the upside is perhaps limited by that, but a bunch of velo has already come on.

If you google “Brendan Rodgers,” the first several results are for Leicester City’s soccer coach, who has been managing Premier League teams since 2008. Baseball’s Brendan Rodgers has been known to scouts for about that long, and has been hitting the entire time. Even as an underclassman, Rodgers was often the best player on the field at well-attended showcase events; when he was a high school junior, scouts thought that if you were to drop him in the draft a year early, he’d still go somewhere in the first round. By his pre-draft summer, Rodgers clearly had the best hit and power combination among his peers, and looked likely to stay on the middle infield. He was the early favorite to go first overall in 2015 until Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, and Andrew Benintendi took a leap the following spring, allowing the Rockies to get him third overall.

One axiom to which we try to adhere is “good hitters hit all the time” and that is indeed what Rodgers has done for the last eight years. He’s a career .293/.348/.491 hitter in the minors, and while most of Colorado’s affiliates play in hitter-friendly parks — this fact has masked some of Rodgers’ mediocre pitch recognition — we anticipate he’ll continue to be a plus hitter in the big leagues. His initial major league trial — a rough 25-game jaunt in the early summer — was not especially encouraging. Rodgers hit .224, swung and missed twice as often as he had in Triple-A (8% swinging strike rate in the minors, 15% in the majors), and generally appeared overwhelmed. But an 80 plate appearance sample doesn’t usurp Rodgers’ lengthy track record of hitting. In November, Rodgers told the Denver Post that he had been dealing with “nagging” shoulder issues since 2018 before deciding to have labrum surgery in June of 2019. As of mid-November, he had yet to begin throwing and hitting. Because he’s only a fringe runner and athlete, Rodgers’ conditioning during rehab is pretty important. A heavy, lumbering Rodgers who needs to play third base is swimming upstream against a 105 wRC+ at the position, while a Rodgers capable of playing second has a 94 wRC+ bar to clear.

Whether Rolison’s 2019 ascent was the result of real improvement or simply washed away our recency bias is immaterial. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season before his year descended into chaos. He became wild and predictable, and yes, you read that right. Rolison couldn’t throw strikes with his fastball and leaned heavily on his curveball, which opposing hitters anticipated and crushed. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

But 2019 was different. Rolison not only threw a greater percentage of strikes (65%) but he located his four-seam fastball where it plays best — at the top of the zone. After holding his college velo early in the year, it dipped late in the season but still competes for swings and misses because of its ride. There’s also more coherent pitch usage and a better pitch mix now; Rolison has a two-seamer, threw more changeups last year, and was just generally more mechanically consistent. He still throws across his body a bit and it can be hard for him to locate his breaking ball to his glove side, but the raw material for a lefty with three above-average pitches and starter control/command is clearly here and coming fast, so this is a back of the 50 FV tier prospect.

A 2019 swing change — what was an open stance with a leg kick has now been closed off and features none — awakened some of the big, dormant raw power that made Vilade such an enticing amateur prospect. He simply could not time his previous cut and was late on many pitches, pushing them the other way or into the ground. The tweak brought his groundball rate closer to average (50% previously, down to 42% in 2019) and more than doubled his home run output from the prior year.

It’s necessary progress for a player who began a long-anticipated fall down the defensive spectrum, and will likely continue to do so. Vilade began seeing time at third base in 2019, and was taking reps in the outfield during the Rockies’ fall workouts. He looked noticeably bigger and stronger on the Salt River backfields than he did during the summer, and we now anticipate Vilade will branch out and play both outfield and infield corners, which makes sense considering how entrenched Nolan Arenado is at third base. Is the tumble troubling? Somewhat, but it’s counterbalanced by versatility, and it’s encouraging that Vilade has now shown an ability to make relevant swing adjustments to get to his power. This is a rather magmatic prospect currently transitioning in several ways, but they’re generally positive.

Toglia had a poor Cape statline and then came out of the gate very slowly during his junior year. He was hitting .207 when PAC-12 play began and his draft stock had taken a plunge but for whatever reason, he started raking during conference play. By the end of the year, he was hitting .315 and had reached base in 29 straight games. Toglia has a rare combination of traits and skills. He’s a switch-hitting first baseman with power who is also a plus defender, which puts him in a small, 21st century team picture with Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Santana. That’s an intriguing group. We think teams hopped off of Toglia too quickly because of bad early-season looks and that he might be poised for a breakout 2020.

Hilliard was a transient, two-way junior college player who hopped around to a pair of JUCOs before settling at Wichita State as a junior. He was raw, and the relative lack of track record likely contributed to him lasting until the 15th round of his junior season, but for a player with this much physical ability to fall that far is a failure on the part of the amateur side of the industry.

Hilliard is a big, athletic thumper with a rare power/speed combination. He’s flourished in his four years as a full-time hitter, slashing .277/.350/.480 in the minors before reaching the big leagues late last summer. As one might expect for such an under-baked athlete who a) barely played as a junior college freshman and b) also pitched the next two years, Hilliard lacks defensive instincts and feel to hit. His ability to identify pitches he can drive is impressive in context, but well-executed pitches can get him out. Hilliard’s big, gallivanting strides make him a plus runner underway, but his mediocre reads on balls in center detract from his range. It’s still above-average in a corner, closer to fringe in center field. It’s kind of a tweener defensive profile except with way more raw power than is usual for that sort, so Hilliard projects to be a strong big league role player, likely the larger half of a platoon in any of the three outfield positions.

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, and everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range where teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. His swing is kind of grooved, but Vavra is a pitch selection savant, adept at picking out pitches he can drive until he has to expand with two strikes. We think he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play every day at shortstop, but we think Vavra is much more likely to end up at second base, where his range could make him an above-average defender. There’s not enough power for an impact regular here, but the athleticism and feel for contact should make Vavra either a low-end regular on the middle infield or a valuable, multi-positional role player.

From a hands and actions standpoint, Welker is actually fine at third base. It’s his lateral quickness that’s an issue, and why he’s generally considered a first base prospect. But same as we’ve seen Travis Shaw and Max Muncy play elsewhere, it stands to reason someone out there thinks Welker can stay at third, or handle duties around the second base bag in certain situations. Those are the teams most likely to think Welker can play something resembling an everyday role, because while he has excellent feel to hit, he lacks the raw power typical of first base.

In the mold of Sheldon Neuse or J.D. Davis, Schunk was a burly, two-way college prospect with power and arm strength. After two years of struggling to get to his raw power in games (he hit just four homers combined his freshman and sophomore seasons), Schunk had a breakout junior year and clubbed 15 dingers. We were hoping he’d start pulling and lifting the ball more and he did, both at Georgia and during his first pro summer. He’s an athletic gamer who’s a good defender at third, though because of the arm strength there was some speculative projecting while Schunk was an amateur that he might catch. The power production needs to keep coming, but Schunk has a shot to be a regular.

Doyle was tough to learn about before the 2019 draft because while he became difficult to hide in the truest sense, nobody wanted to tip their hand as to where he was on their board, as small school players are placed with quite a bit of variability. The physical tools were obvious and pretty similar to what Dodgers prospect D.J. Peters looked like coming out of junior college. Doyle is built like an old school, run-stopping safety at a physical 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. He runs well, has power, and after the draft, against the best pitching he ever faced in his life, Doyle mashed. His ball/strike recognition and ability to spoil pitchers’ pitches were much better than we would have anticipated considering how few quality arms he had seen to that point. He has everyday physical ability and isn’t as raw as we thought he’d be.

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Pitchers who walk guys at even a 10% or worse clip face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint walked more than 30% of the hitters he faced last year, and had more wild pitches than innings. Such strike-throwing incompetence forced a move to the bullpen, which siphoned away reps, and injuries (oblique, forearm, shoulder) over the last two years have exacerbated this issue. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but we’re still on Pint because his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. The chances that he ends up as part of a rotation in any capacity have shrunk considerably, but there’s still a fair shot that he becomes a high-leverage reliever.

Amador has already gotten stronger and twitchier than he appeared to be on the amateur circuit, and he flashed some in-game power in last summer’s Tricky League. For a switch-hitter this young, Amador already has fairly advanced feel to hit in games, even if the swings aren’t always pretty. He’s medium-framed and likely to grow into some more power, but probably not a ton. He’s graceful and athletic enough that we also consider him likely to stay on the middle infield, though we’re not sure if it’ll be at second base or shortstop. There’s everyday ceiling here, but of course, teenagers are quite volatile.

We’ve learned the hard way that graceful deliveries do not always foreshadow improvement to control and command, so we’re not totally sold that Olivarez will develop cogent strike-throwing ability even though his mechanics are silky smooth. He does have tremendous stuff for his age, already sitting in the mid-90s early during his starts and flashing a plus curveball. There’s arguably too much velocity separation between the heater and curveball for the latter to be effective right now, but it has bat-missing depth and shape. Similar to his presently poor feel for location, Olivarez lacks changeup feel. Many things — holding the velo deep into games, mechanical consistency, a sharper curveball, a much better changeup — need to progress for Olivarez to attain what appears to be massive potential when you see his arm strength, frame, and proclivity for spin.

We don’t have many 27-year-olds on prospect lists period, let alone ones above the 40 FV tier. But Goudeau’s 2019 breakout, during which he posted a 30% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate at Double-A and allowed just four baserunners during the AFL season, was remarkable and, as we’ve learned more about the components of pitching, seems real. Goudeau epitomizes fastball spin efficiency, creating near perfect backspin and seam uniformity on his heater, giving it bat-missing carry at the top of the strike zone. His plus curveball is almost indistinguishable from the fastball for most of its flight. Those two pitches together would suffice to make Goudeau an effective middle reliever, but if he retains this abrupt, extreme strike-throwing ability, then perhaps he can go multiple innings. It’s rare for four-seam/curveball guys to succeed in Denver, though.

All of the teenage hitters who began 2019 in Extended Spring Training before moving on to the Pioneer League get compared to one another by scouts, and Carreras is universally considered to have the greatest upside because he has the most realistic chance to grow into impact power. His swing has leverage and real bat speed already, and his wiry frame portends more, and though his bat path and stride are both kind of a mess, Carreras’ hand-eye coordination and bat control enabled him to succeed against mostly college-level pitching last year at age 19. He’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who will probably only fit at third base once he’s done filling out. Because so much of the offensive competency is still messy, this is a high risk prospect, but unquestionably one of the more exciting talents in the system.

The list of current first baseman with premium contact skills but middling game power is full of players hovering around replacement level. Overripe Albert Pujols and Daniel Murphy, last year’s Joey Votto. This seems to be Nevin’s fate. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. He tracks pitches beautifully and can make quality contact with pitches all over the zone, but it’s very tough for a righty-hitting first baseman without big power to profile. Nevin’s reps at third base have dwindled, and he played a few games in left field last summer. He’s on the 40-man and looks like a corner bench bat.

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record (there has never been a major-league hitter from New Hampshire) because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball, both because he’s not hitting the ball as hard as we anticipated and because he isn’t lifting it. Were Lavigne as physically projectable as his age suggests, this would be less worrisome, but he’s a broad-shouldered, imposing presence, so the lack of present thump is somewhat troubling. We’re not out on him yet (he’s too young), but first base-only prospects need to mash and that hasn’t happened here yet.

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever pick in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised, with a mid-90s fastball and plus slider. He probably should have been pushed to Double-A at some point last season but the Rockies have taken things slow. He has the stuff to reach Denver sometime next year, but he doesn’t have to be on the 40-man until next winter, so perhaps 2021 is more likely. He has a shot to be a set-up type.

It was yet another year of inconsistency and injury for Max Scherzer’s mechanical doppelgänger, Ryan Castellani, who was shelved for much of the summer due to a surgery that cleaned up bone chips in his elbow. Upon returning for the Fall League, Castellani was sitting 90-93 with his usual tailing action while flashing above-average secondary stuff. While he has the stuff to start, he seems much more likely to end up in the bullpen now that he’s on the 40-man, but can’t stay healthy or throw strikes. We expect a quick hook if that’s not remedied early next year.

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. For now those skills manifest as modest, all-fields line drive contact, and Diaz is likely a hit-only offensive player in the long run. He’s seen action all over the infield but we have him projected to second base, where he has a fair chance to profile because of the bat. It’s more likely he ends up in a utility role.

Kauffmann is a one-seam sinker/changeup righty with a pretty firm, inconsistent mid-80s slider. A refined slider gives him a good shot to pitch in the back of a rotation. He was used heavily by Michigan during their deep 2019 postseason run, so he didn’t pitch in pro ball last summer.

Wallace has a starter’s mix — mid-90s heat with tail, a changeup with mirroring movement, a sweeping slider — but his arm action is long and low, so he likely projects in relief. There’s clear industry appetite for varied mechanical looks, and Wallace provides one.

Santos’ fastball velocity range is rather vast, but when he was coming out of the bullpen during Fall League, he was sitting 94-97 for entire outings. He doesn’t have a bat-missing secondary; rather he has a deep well of average pitches from which to draw. Whether he’s a No. 5/6 starter type or his repertoire gets pared down to what Colorado thinks gives him the best chance of missing bats out of the bullpen, we think Santos is clearly a rosterable arm of some kind.

Tovar is a complete defensive player, both instinctive and fundamentally sound, as well as flashy and acrobatic. He’s already ditched switch-hitting and is severely lacking in strength at the plate, which needs to improve dramatically if he’s going to be a big leaguer at all, let alone some kind of regular. There’s risk that he only develops into a Dixon Machado type of player, but he has a real carrying tool in the defense.

A prep projection case who finally had the velo show up during his draft spring, Ethridge was working 92-95 with heavy sink last year, his first as a starter since high school. Like Castellani, Ethridge’s delivery is a little Scherzer-y, and his arm slot helps create impact, tailing movement on his changeup. He’s on the fifth starter/reliever line due to stuff quality, not control/command.