55 FV Prospects

If we told you a prospect seemed like an injury-independent lock to play elite outfield defense, how much offense would he have to provide to be a star-level player? The industry’s six-week look at Pache during the Arizona Fall League further cemented the belief that Pache has a great chance to be one of the, if not the, best defensive center fielders in baseball as soon as he arrives in Atlanta. He’s a plus to plus-plus runner with a great first step, and he has a knack for contorting his body in ways that enable him to make spectacular catches on flyballs that would otherwise fall in for tough-luck hits. He also has a 70-grade arm when he sets and throws properly, though at times he sacrifices velocity and accuracy in order to get rid of the ball more quickly, which isn’t always the right decision. Pache also has good bat-to-ball skills and solid average raw power, but the quality of his at-bats and his hitting mechanics both vary. His upside is enormous if everything comes together, and Pache just turned 20 years old, but there’s risk that the bat plays down because of Pache’s approach. If that’s the case, he might exist in the Hamilton/Pillar area of WAR production, but even a one-dimensional offensive profile likely results in star level production and because Pache is still just the age of a college sophomore, we anticipate growth in this area.

Riley was a two-way high school player who many teams preferred as a pitcher, but the Braves preferred him as a hitter and liked him more than any other club, popping him rounds before most teams were prepared to draft him. That gamble has paid off. Braves personnel rave about Riley’s makeup and the strides he has made defensively, now projecting him as an average defender at third base after a lot of work on his footwork and keeping his strong frame nimble. He has an easy plus arm and plus plus raw power along with the contact skills to avoid being a huge strikeout type. What sort of hitter Riley becomes is more a matter of choice for him, but we think he’ll end up in the .250 average, with an average OBP and plus game power, meaning 25 homers or so annually.

Soroka is a former hockey defenseman who brings that mentality to the mound, attacking hitters with three above average pitches and command. He attacks the zone with a low-90s sinker down in the zone and is a pitch efficient starter who isn’t gunning for the strikeout. He’s also a shorter strider so his velocity plays down a bit, making his command and offspeed pitches even more important. Soroka’s changeup went from rarely used to a pitch that flashes plus in the last year or so, and his high-spin hybrid breaking ball has always been a trusted secondary pitch. He missed much of 2018 with a muscular issue in his shoulder, but was ready to pitch in the big leagues in September, hitting the mid-90s in simulated games and only staying out of competitive contents because of the Braves’ cautious approach to his rehab.

Anderson was a prep standout as an underclassman and despite some minor injuries in his draft year, was the third overall pick in 2016. The Braves got him for an under slot bonus that freed them up to grab Wentz, Muller, and Wilson for over slot bonuses; that group has worked out extremely well so far, especially considering how risky a subgroup prep pitching is. Anderson is the most advanced in terms of his combination of stuff now, command, and size, as evidenced by reaching Double-A at age 20 with excellent stats at every stop. He isn’t the sexiest prospect in terms of spin rates, so his command will need to continue to be a separator as the hitters he faces continue to get better. Anderson flashed a 60 curveball as an amateur but it’s more of a 55 now, while his changeup went from not being used much to flashing plus regularly, passing ahead of his curveball for some scouts.

Wright passed up seven figures from the Braves out of an Alabama high school to go to Vanderbilt and got many times more than that three years later as the fifth overall pick. He’s a near ideal combination of frame, arm action, delivery, athleticism, broad repertoire, and feel for pitching. Wright’s fastball is solid, but not a standout swing-and-miss pitch, though his slider often is. Wright mixes in a curveball and changeup that are tertiary options and his lower slot matches the sinker/slider combo a bit better. His best route to early big league success may be to lean on his breaking ball and throw it as often as his fastball, like Chris Archer or Patrick Corbin do. Given the Braves young pitching depth, there may not be a rotation spot for Wright, but his stuff and approach would definitely work in a multi-inning relief role until that spot is available.

50 FV Prospects

Waters was the rare prep prospect who had present hit tool utility, top-of-the-line prep performance, and 55- or 60-grade supporting tools to give him both high certainty and some ceiling. He got lost in the shuffle a bit in his deep draft class and had a tough pro debut due to both fatigue and swing tinkering. His full season debut in 2018 was a smashing success; he demolished the Low-A Sally League and posted a 98 wRC+ in High-A as a teenager. Waters’ raw power is a 55 that will likely be a 60 as he fills out, and his speed is a current 60 that likely becomes a 55. His center field instincts are above average, so he’s still got a solid chance to stick at the position and his arm is an easy plus. Waters’ carrying tool is his bat and he regained an approach that works for him in 2018. His exciting combination of physical projection, now ability, and ceiling will give him upward mobility in the Top 100 with a strong start to 2019.

Contreras’ older brother Willson is among the best catchers in baseball and was a late bloomer, breaking through at age 23 in Double-A. William had his breakout in 2018 as a 20-year-old, going from a trendy pick to breakout to a consensus Top 100 prospect by mid-season. He has been defensively advanced for years, both in his tools and his mental approach to the game, in part due to help from his brother. William projects as an above average defender with a plus arm. Contreras has also gotten stronger and is growing into his man strength after establishing a feel to hit, so he has a well-rounded approach now. He toned down his swing in 2018 and is slowly adding elements as he feels comfortable, rather than making a noisier swing work all at once. Contreras stands out because there are not many 21-year-olds who project for average to above offense along with above average defense, and have the makeup/mental part of the game under control without any major red flags like injuries. The scouts who like Contreras really like him–rounding up on both the tool grades due to makeup and his overall value due to a high floor at a position that’s a wasteland in the majors right now. This top 10 could be in almost any order, and Contreras may be the guy with the biggest variance as to where various baseball people rank him, which is a positive when his ranking peers are mostly MLB-ready, heavily-pedigreed prospects with much more track record.

Toussaint was a heralded and famous prep pitcher, showing plus-plus stuff as a high school sophomore and eventually going in the middle of the first round in 2014. He was traded to Atlanta as the prize for taking on Bronson Arroyo’s contract, and has slowly made adjustments to develop his starter traits and harness his high octane stuff. When he’s at his best, Toussaint works 91-94 and will hit 97 mph a couple of times a game when he needs to, mixing in a 55 or 60 grade curveball and hard changeup, though he’ll break out the 70-grade hook once or twice a game. With his power approach and delivery, Toussaint still has some command issues at times, but when he dials his stuff down a bit, he’s learned to be more pitch efficient. At the least, Toussaint is an ideal candidate to be a setup man or closer who can go multiple innings, but there’s a real chance he can be the no. 2 or 3 starter that teams work so hard, and go through so many arms, to find, and he’s ready to contribute now.

Gohara has had an up-and-down couple of years; he’s dealt with serious health issues and death in his immediate family, and living far away from home, along with some relatively less important professional matters, has also proven to be burdensome. A series of off-the-field issues and maturity concerns led the Mariners to sell low on him in the trade that brought him to Atlanta. He has a frame along the lines of a Prince Fielder or a CC Sabathia in that he looks unathletic when static, but you can see he’s deceptively athletic for his size. Gohara has reportedly recently lost a lot of weight and gotten into the best shape of his life (alarm sound). He has high octane stuff with a plus fastball/slider combo and a changeup that’s come to be average, along with better control and command than you might expect from a young power pitcher. Gohara is very close to losing eligibility, but he may be the rare case of a player who actually demonstrates in March that the changes he’s made are real and moves up a list, since it’s hard to upgrade a guy based on verbal reports that he’s making progress in non-competitive environments.

Wilson is a scout favorite, as an aggressive bulldog who relies on spotting his fastball in all quadrants of the zone, with the velocity, movement, and command all grading above average on his various fastballs. His slider will flash 55 in ideal situations, but plays closer to fringe average regularly, while his changeup also flashes 55 at times and is better than the slider most games. Wilson fits in today’s game because the concerns around him involve turning over the lineup and using his third pitch, but he normally has a plus fastball, above average command, plus plus makeup, and at least one average to above offspeed pitch, so he could be a great 2-3 inning reliever who works in various roles. There’s still a chance he could be a traditional starter, but the Braves’ pitching depth likely dictates a hybrid role in the short term.

45+ FV Prospects

Wentz has flashed three plus pitches at times, but has never done it all in the same outing. Some thought he was on the verge of doing so in 2018, but he missed huge chunks of the year with oblique and shoulder ailments, though they seem minor to us in terms of their long-term effects. Wentz was 88-92 mph with solid average stuff and average command in 2018, and projects to improve when he has a full, healthy offseason to regain what he was the year before. He is also big and athletic with a smooth delivery and arm action, so there’s the classic projection you’re looking for. Like Muller, Wentz also has 70-grade raw power to provide offensive value when he reaches the big leagues. At its best, Wentz’s fastball was 92-95, hitting 96 mph, and his curveball and changeup were plus, with multi-innings stretches when his command looked above average, which led some scouts to invoke Cole Hamels. Things probably land somewhere between the peak of each of his elements and his average 2018 showing.

45 FV Prospects

Allard has largely been the same pitcher since his draft spring, working with a 45 or 50 fastball, an above average offspeed offering, and plus command. He isn’t big and he got hit around in his first taste of the big leagues, which is what most scouts were afraid might happen to him. It was a short look and many have recovered from performances like that, but Allard has to be fine with what he does, and his style of pitching (along with his weapons) offers almost no margin for error and doesn’t exactly fit where the game is going. Luckily he has advanced feel for what he’s doing on the mound, so there is a path to being a reliable back-end starter.

Muller is a big, athletic, aggressive lefty with a sturdy frame and above average stuff to go with average type command. He displayed raw power in high school that some scouts graded as a 70, so there’s likely some real value above what most NL pitchers offer at the plate. He had a velocity dip after signing, which most seem to think stemmed from heavy usage in high school. That appeared to be the case, as his velocity was back up this spring after some training at Driveline. Muller isn’t traditionally exciting since he doesn’t have huge velocity or a crazy athletic and loose delivery, but lots of long-time starters have looked like this at this stage in their careers.

Jenista has a skillset that will be familiar to long-time fans of the game, with some qualities in common with players like Jeromy Burnitz, Adam Dunn, and Lance Berkman. Jenista is deceptively athletic for his size (a 50 runner at 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds) and has big raw power (a 65) along with a right field profile. Jenista is a late-count, power-focused hitter, so his approach will come with some swing-and-miss and some walks. He’ll need a slight adjustment to his swing plane, as it’s a little too flat for this type of player (he hits more doubles when he makes hard contact than you’d like), and he may age more quickly than player with a slighter build would. The upside is a three-win power-focused corner bat, though a more realistic expectation is probably a low-end regular worth around two wins annually, but he’ll need to make some offensive adjustments between now and then regardless.

40+ FV Prospects

Tarnok was primarily a hitter in high school, and many teams didn’t take him seriously as a pitcher or even see him multiple times until late in the spring. The Braves were the team highest on him, and talked him into giving pitching a shot full-time with a well-over-slot bonus. Tarnok is, as expected, still raw, but it’s easy to see what Braves scouts were so excited about: he has near-ideal body and arm action along with standout arm strength, athleticism, and ability to spin the ball. The finer points of pitching, how to mix all of his pitches, and dialing in the repetition of his delivery are still variables, all stemming from his lack of innings. He’s a popular pick to be the breakout prospect in the system and has among its highest ceilings if it all comes together.

Jackson was selected sixth overall out of a SoCal high school in 2014, and was among the most celebrated prep bats of all time. He ranked at the top of his class for three years and was projected to move from catcher to right field because of his prodigious talent at the plate, like Bryce Harper and Wil Myers before him. He had a tough pro debut with unlucky injuries, streaky hitting, and poor coaching, which he responded poorly to in turn, bristling at the criticism that came with not meeting expectations. Jackson was traded to the Braves, who moved him back behind the plate in an attempt to build some value since his bat no longer profiled as the 6 hit/6 power that was projected out of high school. He made great strides as a catcher in 2018 and now looks likely to be an average-or-close-to-it receiver with a plus arm and plus plus raw power. He’s gotten much bigger since high school and isn’t a runner, and his lessened twitch quickness also makes him more of a mistake hitter at the plate. Jackson being near MLB-ready and given the current state of catching, he could be a 90 wRC+ hitter and fringe-to-average receiver and have a long career. There’s a chance for more, but expectations have settled right around there.

40 FV Prospects

Webb was a low-bonus, late-round, small school pick who still wasn’t really on the prospect radar for most clubs until 2018. His velocity took a step forward (up to 98 mph) and the added armspeed helped his 50 to 55 type stuff grade out a tick better. This improvement made him a lock to be a Rule 5 pick if not protected, so Atlanta added him to the 40-man roster. Like many of the 40 FV-grade relievers on this list, Webb projects as a middle reliever, but he has the best chance to turn into a bit more, and could possibly be a setup man.

Ynoa’s older bother Michel was the July 2nd bonus record-holder for awhile and still sets the pace for non-Cuban pitchers in the market. Huascar was also a premium arm in his class, receiving a high-six-figure bonus and making incremental progress since then, reaching a velocity peak of 100 mph in 2018. Ynoa’s fastball plays down a bit because he’s a short strider and throws a bit of sinker, but it often flattens out up in the zone when he overthrows, happens at his highest velocities. His slider occasionally flashes plus, but projecting a 55 pitch is more reasonable for the type of breaker he can command. Ynoa’s changeup is usable and his command shows flashes, but he was added to the 40-man roster this year and will start burning options now. This ticking options clock limits the time he has to develop starter traits, making a power middle reliever the most likely outcome.

Beck was premium prospect out of a SoCal high school, reportedly turning down over $2.5 million to go to Stanford as he had long wanted to do. There, Beck had various injury issues and his stuff and command didn’t progress as many had hoped, but he still showed glimpses of his upside from high school. In instructional league, he ran his fastball up to 96 mph, which didn’t happen often in college, and his signature hammer curveball flashed plus once again. Beck is still in the nether region of starter vs. reliever given his uneven track record and command that doesn’t consistently flash average, but his power stuff will play in any role if he can continue showing what he did in instructional league.

Davidson was a low-profile JC arm the Braves gambled on in 2016 and after improving his body composition entering the 2017 season, his stuff and command improved too, and he looked like a potential no. 4 starter. Davidson’s 2018 season wasn’t as good, as his stuff and command were both a bit worse, so he’s now at the nexus of back-end starter or depth relief lefty, though the upside of being a starter in the big leagues keeps him ahead of some of the 35 FV lefty relievers below (Clouse and Burrows) with similar stuff.

As an amateur, Weigel was a big dude with an upper-90’s fastball and little else that showed much consistency, which allowed him to slip to the seventh round. In pro ball, Weigel was able to put it together as a starter, continuing to run his heater into the upper-90’s, but working more 92-94 mph with a four pitch mix that was also average or better. Due to the power of his repertoire and approach, and his long frame, Weigel had the sort of fringy command that made him seem better suited to being a multi-inning reliever than a starter. He underwent Tommy John surgery once he reached Triple-A in 2017 and returned to the mound late in 2018. In instructional league, Weigel’s arm speed was mostly back, hitting 96 mph, but the stamina and crispness of his offspeed pitches wasn’t quite there yet. It’s still too early to expect him to be completely back and there’s an expectation that he will return to his prior form in the upcoming season. That belief led the Braves to add him to the 40-man, as he would’ve been a strong candidate for a rebuilding team looking to buy low on him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Sobotka was a pop-up small school pitcher in the 2014 draft, but issues stemming from his size and arm speed limited him in various ways until 2018, when he velocity took the step forward that many foresaw in 2014. Sobotka now hits 100 mph and mixes in a slider that’s a 55 at times. His command will never be great since he has a slightly stiff, 6-foot-7 frame, but his stuff doesn’t need pinpoint control to be effective in a middle relief role. After contributing out of the big league bullpen down the stretch and in the playoffs in 2018, Sobotka is a useful middle reliever with options for the Braves to use and develop further.

Riley burst onto the scouting scene in 2018 at Logan JC in Iowa after bouncing back from Oklahoma State. Some teams were hesitant to take him where his talent suggested (second or third round) due to their interpretation of what led to him to leave Oklahoma State, but the Braves were excited to give him an over slot bonus in the fifth round of a draft where they were missing a third round selection. Riley’s stuff is exciting — up to 97 mph, with a slider that flashes plus, and a solid average curve and changeup that flashed average — while his arm action, athleticism, and command give him a chance to start, despite a short track record of doing so. Regardless, his present stuff will play in any role and fits where the game is going, so simply staying healthy, getting innings, and maintaining his stuff should keep him on the prospect radar.

Wilson burst onto the prospect scene in 2015, hitting 10 homers in 48 games in the GCL at age 17. He signed as a shortstop but has moved down the defensive spectrum to right field, retaining his loose, lefty swing and physical projection. In the interim, Wilson has had maturity and consistency issues, which he appears to be moving past now. Longer-limbed power hitters typically take the longest to develop offensively, making his pro debut that much more surprising. He’ll be 21 years old next year, with a chance to get to Double-A and regain the everyday player projection some saw in 2015.

C.J. Alexander and his brother, SS Blaze Alexander (IMG Academy HS in Florida, drafted by the Diamondbacks), were both drafted lower in 2018 than their talent suggested. Blaze slipped due to demands as an over slot high school pick, while C.J. was old for a junior college player and is limited to a corner, though scouts have some debate about which position is his best fit. C.J. had a big pro debut, getting to High-A and playing in instructs in a season that saw him in real games from late January until October. He has plus raw power and a plus arm, with deceptive contact skills and at least passable defense at all four corner spots. The upside is a low-end regular or the correct side of a corner platoon, which is more likely to happen if he continues to move quickly through the system. His pro ball batted-ball outcomes were lucky but he also played among the longest seasons in all of organized baseball, putting up big numbers at every level.

Graham has some of the best pure stuff in baseball, running his fastball up to 97 mph, flashing a 60 slider at times, and relying heavily on one of the best changeups in the game, which is a 70 for most scouts. His short arm action is a giveaway that he converted from catching while at Oregon. The issues holding Graham back are that he consistently works behind in the count and seems focused on putting up big velocity numbers, which affects his fastball command and allows hitters to sit on his offspeed pitches. Like Didder and Demeritte, hope was bright in the past year that Graham could fix his issues and become a big league contributor, but none of the three have changed much in the interim and now have shorter developmental ropes as they enter their mid-20’s.

35+ FV Prospects

Ramos was a higher profile July 2nd prospect whose market didn’t materialize as expected, so he waited until 2016 to sign as a 17-year-old in the Braves pool-busting class. Ramos is a left field only fit, with plus raw power as his carrying tool, so he has to hit. He made real progress on that front in 2018, bopping 16 homers and posting a 102 wRC+ in Low-A as a 19-year-old. He’s backed into a corner profile-wise, and has to keep progressing at the plate to avoid his upside being the wrong side of a left field/first base platoon. As an example, the Braves had a version of this at Triple-A recently in Dustin Peterson; he was put on waivers as the demand for this sort of less-versatile player is waning.

De La Cruz is 92-95, touching 97 mph and flashing a plus slider at his best, so there’s some clear ceiling here. His changeup, command, and delivery all come and go, and he has pitched limited innings for a 21-year-old. A reasonable scenario for him is to continue trying to start for a bit longer, and if he doesn’t emerge in that role, to eventually focus on his fastball/slider combo in shorter stints. In that role, he could work his way into higher leverage late relief, but there’s still a long way to go before that happens.

Didder can play at least average defense at all the non-pitcher-and-catcher positions on the field and he’s shown plus ability in center, buoyed by plus-plus speed and a plus-plus arm. He’s shown ability at the plate and mistake power at times, but he’s now 24 and still hasn’t put it together offensively for long stretches. He’s Rule 5-eligible and is an ideal 25th man type if a team thinks they can tease out some offense and get a 1-2 WAR player with all of his secondary skills.

50 FV Prospects

Even as he struggled early as a pro to perform on paper, Amaya drew trade interest from clubs hoping to leverage the Cubs’ championship aspirations to convince the club to part with him. The Cubs refused and have been rewarded, as the offensive potential promised by Amaya’s graceful swing and burgeoning physicality began to actualize in 2018. Amaya’s hands have life, and work in a tight little loop as he accelerates them to swing. He can pull and lift balls in various parts of the zone with regularity, and the impact of his contact is only limited by his average bat speed. The physical grind of catching is likely to dilute his in-game offensive production a little bit, but unless the beating he takes back there starts to take away from his defensive abilities (which sometimes happens to young catchers), Amaya is a pretty good bet to have some kind of big league career, and, if the bat maxes out, he’ll be an above-average regular. He turns 20 in March and will likely head to Hi-A next year. How his advanced defensive ability and less-advanced bat develop could affect how quickly the Cubs push him: slowly if they want to wait for the latter or, depending on how much he hits early as a big leaguer, quickly if they don’t.

Already, Hoerner’s swing has changed. He was making lots of hard, low-lying contact at Stanford, but since signing he has added a subtle little bat wrap that has made a substantial difference in how he impacts the ball. He hit for much more power than was anticipated in the summer and fall, and the identifiable mechanical tweak is evidence that the change is real and not small-sample noise. Hoerner makes routine plays at short and so long as scouts are okay with his funky throwing motion, he has a chance to stay there. There are scouts who have him projected to second base or to center field. Hoerner’s previous swing enabled a bit of a jailbreak out of the batter’s box, exaggerating his home-to-first speed. With the new swing, he’s a 55 runner. Hoener’s bat and probable up the middle defensive profile mean he’s likely to be at least an average regular, and he could move quickly.

We’re chalking up Ademan’s terrible 2018 statline to an overzealous assignment. At age 19, the Cubs sent him to Hi-A Myrtle Beach, where he barely hit above the Mendoza Line. He did look a little bit heavier than he had the year before, and his swing was more upright and less athletic than it has been, but all the physical tools to stay at short are still here (quick actions, sound footwork, plenty of arm) for now. Much of Ademan’s offensive woes can be explained away by his age relative to the level. He doesn’t project to be an impact bat, just one that is better than is usual at shortstop. Ideally he shows up to Mesa in the spring looking a little leaner and twitchier. He’ll likely repeat Myrtle Beach (at least for the season’s first half) and projects as an average everyday player.

45+ FV Prospects

Alzolay felt a weird sensation in his throwing arm in the fourth innings of a late-May start at Triple-A. It was a lat strain, for which he’d need a PRP injection and the rest of the summer to rehab. He was throwing again in the fall and is expected to be ready for 2019. Alzolay may have also had some health issues during his breakout 2017. He was given extended rest throughout July and August, his starts often spaced out by six days. He didn’t throw more than 80 pitches in any August start and was shut down late in that month, then asked to pick up innings in the Arizona Fall League. He has this system’s best two-pitch mix, a fastball/power curveball combo that is ready for a major league bullpen as soon as Alzolay is healthy. To profile in a rotation, he will need a better changeup than the one he has shown in the past; missing several months of action with his lat issue likely slowed that process. The combination of injury and the changeup reps lost to it make it more likely that Alzolay ends up in the bullpen, but he could be a dominant high-leverage option there.

45 FV Prospects

Steele signed for $1 million as one of several over-slot players in Chicago’s terrific 2014 draft class and was tracking through the minors at an even pace before he blew out his elbow in August of 2017. He returned from Tommy John just eleven months after his injury and by the end of his six-week Arizona Fall League run, looked as though he might contribute to the Cubs in 2019. He was touching 95 in the fall and living in the low-90s with less life than his spin rate would indicate. He has an above-average curveball and will flash an average change and a pitch that looks like a cutter, but it may just be a variation of his changeup. He projects as a no. 4 or 5 starter.

As a high school underclassman, Roederer looked like a hit-first tweener outfielder. He added a bunch of good weight and strength and had significantly more raw power when he arrived in the AZL after signing. He has already begun trading a little bit of contact for significantly more game power. With added mass and strength typically comes a reduction in straight line speed, but Roederer hasn’t slowed down just yet and still looks like a possibility to stay in center, though most scouts who saw him in pro ball think he’ll eventually move to left field. Regardless, there’s a whole lot more bat here than there was on our pre-draft evaluation of Roederer, who has risen to the top of the promising teenage hitter group in this system because he has a chance to hit for average and power while the rest are likely to do just one of those.

Name another teenage lefty who touches 99. As far as we know, this is the only one, meaning Marquez is perhaps the hardest-throwing teenage southpaw on the planet right now. He also has pretty advanced fastball command for someone with that kind of heat to go along with a 6.5% walk rate over his last 100 innings of work. His secondary stuff is pretty pedestrian, but everything of his plays up against left-handed hitters because Marquez has a weird, sawed off, low-slot arm action. He’ll need to develop better ways to deal with right-handed hitters, either via command or better secondary stuff, and ultimately Marquez projects as a no. 4 starter because one cannot live on velo alone, but the elite arm strength means his ceiling is higher than that if the Cubs can work some magic with his stuff.

Lange had a legendary college career at LSU, where he always performed despite some year-to-year fluctuations in his velocity. He carved up the SEC with just two pitches, and repertoire depth, the velo issues, and the violence in Lange’s delivery all contributed to the amateur scouting world’s opinion that he would be a reliever in pro ball. Lange’s changeup usage increased dramatically in 2018 and the pitch improved. His curveball doesn’t have big raw spin but it’s still really effective and remains his best pitch. His delivery is deceptive and enables his fastball to play despite below-average velocity. It appears there’s a starter’s arsenal here and Lange threw plenty of strikes in 2018. If he’s living off of deception, perhaps his future role will be limited to a one time through the order type of guy, but that’s still more than a generic 40 FV reliever.

40+ FV Prospects

Arguing in Short’s favor is best done using the same statistics that have made him a Fringe Five mainstay for the last two years. He owns a 17% career walk rate and gets to every bit of his fringy raw power in games because he hits flyballs at a 54% clip, which would be the highest rate in the majors among qualified hitters. Short exists at the far right tail of the player population where both of these skills are concerned. He’s very similar, statistically, to one-year wonder Ryan Schimpf, except Short has better feel for contact and can actually play shortstop. He may wind up in a utility role, but Short is freaky enough in these ways to be more intriguing than your average bench guy, and the Addison Russell situation complicates the Cubs’ shortstop situation enough that Short might be relevant pretty quickly.

Gallardo signed for an even $1 million in July and was, in our opinion, the most well-rounded pitcher in his IFA class. He’s really loose, flexible, and athletic, and has some physical projection. He sits 89-93 right now and it plays at the top of the strike zone. He’ll likely throw harder as he matures. Gallardo also has a proclivity for spin and his curveball already flashes plus. He checks all the traditional boxes for a teenage pitching prospect, has advanced pitchability, and his stuff works in a specific way (four-seamers up, curveballs down) that fits with contemporary pitch usage. Teenage pitching is risky, but every aspect of Gallardo’s profile is indicative of improvement. He has a chance to be really good.

40 FV Prospects

Garcia, who signed for $500,000, just turned 17 in August and hit .300 in the AZL despite being a whopping 3.5 years younger than the average player there. He has really great feel to hit, and not just for his age. It’s punchy, all-fields contact right now. Garcia’s swing has an abbreviated finish and he’s already a pretty stocky kid without much room for mass, so it’s unlikely he develops big home run power as he matures; he might never hit more than 12-15 bombs. But he’s going to hit a ton and he’s athletic enough to have tried shortstop, though he probably fits best at second base, where he might be above-average. Depending on how his bat develops, he could be a Cesar Hernandez type of regular who makes a ton of contact and plays a premium position, which would generate a significant amount of value even if there’s not much pop here. The Cubs have pushed advanced hitters like this pretty aggressively of late, but Garcia is just so young that we anticipate he’ll be in extended next year, then head to Eugene for the start of his summer. If he hits there, he may get a cup of coffee at South Bend late in the summer.

If you’re looking for the Platonic Ideal of upside, it exists in Davis, who is raw as a hitter but still enthralling in every other possible way. Davis was his conference’s Defensive POY on a 2016 state championship basketball team and didn’t fully commit to baseball until his senior year. His mother was a track and field athlete at the University of Washington and his father is former NBA All-Star, Reggie Theus. In addition to his athletic gifts, scouts rave about Davis’ maturity as a student and a worker (often citing the odd hours he keeps taking care of a goat and llamas at his family home), and all thought he’d be able to cope with likely early-career contact struggles and would work to improve his ability to hit. If Davis grows into a 40 bat, he could be a star because of his power and ability to play center field. There’s some risk he never gets there.

Little’s stuff was down in 2018. He was 92-94 and touching 95 or 96 last year, had a plus curveball, and only lasted until late in the first round because of concerns surrounding his command. This year, he was mostly 89-92 with just an average curveball and no improvement in his ability to locate. There’s a chance he bounces back, but college starters often just never throw as hard as they did in school due to increased usage and a longer season, and that’s possible in this case, too. A left-handed breaking ball like this probably means Little will at least have a future in the bullpen or as a backend starter, but his stuff needs to rebound if he’s going to be more.

Estrada, who signed for $1 million as a sixth rounder in 2017, had a very strong spring and extended spring in Mesa and looked like he might be pushed to short season ball as a 19-year-old. Then, just before short season leagues began, he was placed on the reserve list and didn’t throw again all summer. He is already much thicker and heavier than he was in high school. He was touching 96 before he was shut down and had one of the nastier changeups among teenage arms in Arizona. He struck out a rehabbing Andrew Toles with that changeup twice in extended, though his curveball remains pretty fringy. If his command improves and he finds a third pitch, the curveball or otherwise, he’ll be a mid-rotation option. If not, he projects as a late-inning fastball/changeup reliever.

De la Cruz spent much of 2017 injured, and was sitting 88-92 while rehabbing in preparation for a Fall League stint that was nixed due to a setback. After showing similar velocity in March of 2018, he was suspended for PEDs in the second half of the season. He’s currently throwing about an inning per week for Estrellas Orientales in the Dominican Winter League. Peak prospect De la Cruz would show you a plus fastball and breaking ball consistently, as well as some feel for a changeup. Because of all the lost reps due to various injuries over the last several years, his development has been slow. Assuming his stuff comes back, it makes sense to move him quickly as a reliever before something else happens to him, which would make his lack of a strong changeup and command less relevant. In that case, he could be a high-leverage arm.

Jose Albertos’ final spring training start was unremarkable. As usual, he looked like he was in control of two excellent secondary pitches much more than his mid-90s fastball. When the Low-A South Bend’s season began a few days later, Albertos had issues finding the strike zone and lasted just a single inning. The problem snowballed, and his’ control unravelled throughout the course of the year. He walked 32 hitters in 13.2 innings at South Bend, then was sent back to extended spring training for a month before he was reassigned to short-season Eugene, where he walked 33 in 17.2 innings, at times throwing fastballs in the mid-80s just to try to throw a strike. This happens to athletes in various sports from time to time, but not often enough for us to have developed refined ways of helping athletes deal with it, so we just don’t know if Albertos will bounce back. We do know he is very talented. He had three plus pitches at age 19. There was concern about his physical composition and release variability, though remedying one of those things might aid the other. If that were to happen, he could move quickly because his stuff is already in place. Hopefully, Albertos can flush 2018. He’s only 20 and has above-average starter stuff if he can compose his body and mind.

Mills epitomizes the pitchability righty. He has a below-average fastball but locates it well and can add and subtract from its sink and tail in ways that enable him to work like a power pitcher does. He works his sinker and changeup down and to his arm side or runs either of them back onto his glove side corner to set up a slider. Mills struggles to finish his curveball consistently, but the rest of his fairly generic repertoire plays just fine because his command is so good. He’s a big league ready backend starter.

Verdugo signed for $1 million out of Mexico in 2017. He can really pick it at shortstop and could be plus there at maturity. His hands, range, actions, footwork, and athleticism are all superlative, especially considering his age, and while he is physically projectable, he’s not so big-framed that he’s a threat to move off shortstop. Verdugo’s defensive ability was in place when he arrived for camp in the spring. By the start of the summer, he had already filled out a bit and started putting a serious charge into the baseball during BP and, occasionally, in games. That thump tapered off later in the year and Verdugo has some swing length issues that will likely make him strikeout prone, but it’s possible he was just tired in August and that there’s some pop here, too. It’s unlikely that he has a well-rounded, impact profile on offense, but he could be a plus glove at short who also runs into 15-plus bombs if that power develops.

Abbott was a draft spring popup guy as a junior and went in the second round. He struck out 100 more hitters as a junior than he did as a sophomore in just 28 more innings. His scouting report still lead with affection for his command rather than his improved stuff, but there was thought that the stuff might continue to blossom in pro ball. But it has plateaued and Abbott now projects as a low-variance fifth starter. Abbott’s fastball plays best when it’s moving most, which for him is when he’s locating it just off the plate to his arm side; it is hittable everywhere else, including up above the zone. He can locate there, but Abbott is limited in where he can attack with the fastball, which also makes it harder for him to set up his breaking balls. Those are either two separate pitches or one curveball that has pretty variable shape. The best of Abbott’s breakers are vertical curveballs that bite hard and have enough depth to miss bats beneath the zone; his changeup is okay, used often for first pitch strikes later in game.

Thompson split his first full pro season between Hi and Double-A and looks exactly as he did at Auburn. He throws a lot of strikes with an average four-pitch mix, and misses in places where he can’t get hurt when he’s not locating exactly. He’s going to have to pitch off of his two breaking balls very heavily because of his lack of velocity, but Thompson makes diverse use of his slider and curveball, both of which he can spot for strikes early in counts or use at a chase pitch. His ceiling is limited, but he is arguably ready to take a big league mound right now if the Cubs need a competent start.

Miller’s crafty application of pretty average stuff enabled him to strike out a batter per inning at Hi-A Myrtle Beach last season, albeit as a prospect of relatively advanced age. He can manipulate the shape of his fastball — which can cut, sink or ride — which, in Miller’s best starts, he had pinpoint control of. Both of his secondaries are viable big league offerings when they’re located, but Miller gets in trouble, especially with his changeup, when he misses within the strike zone. He has fifth starter traits. Double-A will be an excellent stress test for Miller’s command, which needs to max out if he’s to fit on a big league staff.

Giambrone’s athletic, contemporary, full-body swing makes efficient use of his little frame, and he’s able to tap into in-game pull power because of it. He can also play several different positions (2B, 3B, OF) at varying levels of skill, and he’s a solid-average runner. Fall League discussion surrounding Giambrone often focused on comparing him to David Bote, both because Bote crushed Fall League the year before and because Giambrone will literally be competing with Bote for a roster spot as an infield bench contributor. Giambrone is a better, more versatile defender, but Bote has more power.

Morel has visible on-field leadership qualities and was the vocal protagonist of an AZL club team that lost the league championship series to the Dodgers. He’s wiry and projectable but already strong, and he has present pull power that projects to plus. He also has plenty of arm for the left side of the infield and has seen time at short, but he almost certainly will move to third at some point, and there’s a non-zero chance he ends up in right field. Morel has some pitch recognition issues that lead to strikeouts. Those create uncertainty about his profile, but they’ll be more acceptable if he can stay on the dirt. He could be an athletic, power-hitting corner bat in the big leagues so long as he hits a little bit.

Cruz is a sinker/changeup prospect in a world where four seam/breaking ball prospects are increasingly desired, but it’s a good sinker and changeup to go along with advanced control. He’s not as physically projectable as most 19-year-olds, but Cruz should add a little bit of velocity simply through physical maturity, and his fastball’s movement profile pairs nicely with the change, which should allow both to thrive as he moves up. He profiles as a no. 4 or 5 starter.

Looking at his stuff without all the context that encompasses ‘mound presence,’ Mekkes is a three-pitch middle-relief prospect. His fastball typically sits in the low 90s and his slider is solid average, perhaps a tick above. But Mekkes is a gargantuan 6-foot-7, takes a large stride toward the plate, and releases the ball much closer to home than the average pitcher, creating a Doug Fister-like effect that allows his stuff to play up. He has a 1.16 career ERA in pro ball and has K’d more than a batter per inning. Like most XXL pitchers in their early 20s, Mekkes struggles with control, but hitters’ inability to adjust to his delivery in short stints has limited their overall ability to reach base. As a result, he has a 1.05 career WHIP despite an 12% career walk rate. It’s hard to say how this rare type of deception will play in the big leagues, assuming upper-level hitters are still flummoxed by it as Mekkes moves on. Jordan Walden was dominant for a half decade with a similar type of deception but he had much better stuff.

Hatch hasn’t developed the control typical of a starter, so while he does have a fairly deep repertoire, he projects in middle relief, where his fastball might tick up beyond where we have it projected.

Sierra has moved one level at a time since signing in 2015 for $2.5 million and finally left the womb of the complex and spent his summer in Eugene. He has plus power right now at age 20 but he struggles to get to it in games. This is a long-levered hitter whose necessary hitting development will likely take a while. He has the power to profile as an everyday right fielder if it does.

Like several Cubs prospects who were handed aggressive assignments for their age, Velazquez struggled at Low-A and was eventually demoted. He performed after being sent back down to Eugene (.250/.322/.458) but was still plagued by the plate discipline issues that were his undoing in the spring at South Bend. Velazquez has big power, and there’s ceiling here if he can hit, though he’ll need to be more selective if he’s going to. He’ll also have to develop on defense.

We assume Correa was hurt for much of 2018 (he threw just two AZL innings) but it’s unclear what ailed him. In 2017, he had some wild fluctuations in velocity (he was seen throwing anywhere between 93 and 100, but mostly sitting 94-98), which continued when he threw in 2018. Correa was 94-96 in the spring and then didn’t pitch until late in the summer when he was 92-93. If his arm strength bounces back, he’ll move up this list.

The Cubs didn’t sign Rodriguez until very late in the amateur signing calendar. He signed in early May of 2017 and barely pitched that year, only seeing consistent reps for the first time in 2018. Rodriguez is a wispy 6-foot-2. He was up to 92 in extended spring training but sat in the upper-80s in the DSL. He can spin a good breaking ball and his fastballs spins well relative to its velocity.

Franklin was only throwing in the low-80s as a high school junior, but his velocity spiked later in the year and he threw much harder the following year. He now sits in the low-90s. Franklin also has a sizable frame and can spin it. He signed for a well-over slot $540,000 as a 6th rounder. He’s a really high variance prospect because the velocity is fairly new and might keep coming.