Archive for Prospects

Yesterday, I covered some of the Midwest prep players from this recent draft class who I was able to see in person several times over the past couple of years. This set of notes will cover some recent college draftees (from both four-year programs and junior colleges) who I caught this year in Kansas and Oklahoma.

Hunter Cranton, RHP, Kansas
Team: Mariners Round: 3 Overall Pick: 91

Cranton will turn 24 years old in October and is a nearly finished product who can be expected to move through the minor leagues quickly. He has a rangy 6-foot-3 frame and throws from a high arm slot, and there’s violent effort in every pitch. His fastball sat 95-98 mph in most of my looks and touched triple digits a couple of times throughout the year. Cranton doesn’t create much extension, but he still creates plus riding action on his four-seamer because of how well he backspins it, and he’s fully capable of bullying hitters in the zone. At its best, his upper-80s slider is a hard, two-plane breaker with late enough action to generate above-average chase rates, but Cranton also has a tendency to lose the hard vertical finish that is most responsible for it generating whiffs. Cranton is a power-over-precision single-inning relief type who signed a below-slot $50,000 deal. He will likely be assigned to one of Seattle’s A-ball affiliates, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were to finish the regular season at Double-A or higher.

Braden Davis, LHP, Oklahoma
Team: Cardinals Round: 5 Overall Pick: 142

The headliner of Davis’ three-pitch mix is a changeup that I’d argue warrants a 70 future grade. It ran a 51% in-zone whiff rate this year and has late diving action in the low-80s that he sells especially well with his arm speed. Davis was in the Sooners’ rotation this season, sitting 90-93 mph with his fastball and touching 95 when he emptied the tank. He throws from a high slot and hides the ball well with his online arm path, which allows his fastball to sneak by hitters, especially when it’s located up in the zone. His breaking ball is a low-80s slider that will show traditional two-plane action and at times incorporate more depth. It’s an offering that profiles to play much better against same-sided hitters; Davis will likely need to lean much more heavily on his changeup against right-handed batters. Davis trimmed his walk rate to 10.5% in 2024 after running a 15% walk rate in Sam Houston State’s bullpen the year prior. His command will need to take another large developmental step forward for him to be viable as a starter at the big league level, but we could be looking at a solid multi-inning relief type whose stuff ticks up in shorter bursts, enabling him to move quickly through the minors. Davis and the Cardinals agreed to a deal for the slot amount of $485,700. He’ll be an arm to watch in the Cardinals system, especially with that changeup.

Tyson Neighbors, RHP, Kansas State
Team: Padres Round: 4 Overall Pick: 118

Neighbors has a medium frame with limited physical projection. He throws from a high slot and has a vertically oriented arsenal in his four-seam fastball and curveball. His heater sat 93-96 mph and touched 98 each time I saw him this spring. Neighbors’ fastball displays plus riding life when it’s in the upper half of the zone, but he worked at the knees seemingly as often as he attempted to elevate, and the life on the pitch isn’t as explosive down there. Neighbors’ curveball is a 81-85 mph 12-to-6 downer with sharp break that plays well against left-handed hitters because of the vertical nature of its shape. He’ll also mix in a short cutter at 88-91 mph to give hitters another look. In 2023, Neighbors struck out an absurd 46.7% of the batters he faced, while this year he struck out 36.5%. Neighbors’ walk rate ticked up to 11.4% this year after he limited free passes (8.7% walk rate) in 2023. Neighbors’ control has always significantly outpaced his command, and if he’s able to keep the walks in check, he could move quickly through the minors. He has the potential to be a high-leverage type. He agreed to a $600,000 deal, slightly below slot.

Kodey Shojinaga, Catcher, Kansas
Team: Phillies Round: 6 Overall Pick: 192

Shojinaga was a draft-eligible sophomore who I’ve had a front seat to for the past couple of years as he’s played at Kansas. Shojinaga has advanced bat-to-ball ability, which is reflected in his sub-10% in-zone whiff rate this season, and he posted a .335/.402/.485 slash on the year. He projects for well-below-average game power, but his line drive and gap-to-gap approach will produce a significant number of doubles.

The question with Shojinaga is and has always been where he’s going to play on the defensive side of the ball. The Phillies announced him as a catcher, which is the position he played in high school and in fall scrimmages each year that he was on campus, but it’s always been pretty shaky back there and he only appeared at catcher in one game in his two years of college ball. He has average arm strength, and both his receiving and blocking ability currently grade out as well below average. He’s primarily alternated between second and third base, but the hands and footwork is going to have to take a big step forward in pro ball for him to be a passable defender at either spot.

Shojinaga’s hit tool gives him a shot, but he’ll need to find a way to become a passable defender at a position that can support his below-average power profile. I don’t think that will be at his announced position of catcher. Shojinaga recently signed with the Phillies for $257,500.

Caden Powell, SS/CF, Seminole State (OK)
Team: Astros Round: 6 Overall Pick: 193

Powell won the 2024 National Junior College Player of the Year award at Seminole State, a longtime Oklahoma junior college powerhouse. In his 253 plate appearances this spring, Powell had 56 total extra-base hits (1.088 SLG), including 32 homers, and hit .502 on the season while playing shortstop for the Trojans. Powell is a premium athlete who still has significant frame-based projection and he’s going to a club that has arguably had the most success in plucking under-the-radar Midwest junior college players who later find their way to the big leagues.

Powell was drafted as a shortstop, but in my in-person looks at him this year, I thought he profiled better in center field because his actions at short can occasionally get rigid and his hands aren’t plus. Powell has an aggressive approach at the plate and there will be some swing-and-miss in his game, but the pure athleticism and bat speed he brings to the table are a good foundation to build on. Regardless of where he ends up on the defensive spectrum, you’re buying the bat and overall athleticism with Powell. The comp I have on him as he enters pro ball involves another former prospect from the state of Oklahoma: Lane Adams. The Astros and Powell agreed on an over-slot bonus of $422,500. He’s a high-variance position player to watch in Houston’s system

Brendan Jones, CF, Kansas State
Team: Yankees Round: 12 Overall Pick: 361

Jones walked (55) more than he struck out (51) for Kansas State in 2024 on his way to posting a .303/.442/.500 line as the Wildcats’ everyday center fielder. Jones has a very flat bat path through the zone, but also whips the bat through the zone with above-average bat speed. Barring a major swing change, Jones’ path and approach aren’t going to yield much home run value, but his current cut is very conducive to spraying hard line drives to all fields.

Jones shouldn’t have any problem staying in center field long-term, as his plus speed allows him to cover both gaps even though he has a tendency to set up very deep in center. Despite not being a highly projectable prospect, Jones’ ability to both stick at a premium position and make himself a pesky out in the batter’s box gives him a viable path to being a role player. The Yankees inked Jones to a $150,000 signing bonus and he’ll likely join an affiliate soon.

Iziah Salinas, LHP, Cowley College (KS)
Team: Orioles Round: 17 Overall Pick: 519

Salinas is a left-handed pitcher with plus athleticism out of Cowley College, a JUCO in Kansas that has produced the likes of Travis Hafner, Junior Spivey, and Trevor Rosenthal. Salinas is a very good athlete with a lean frame. Notable hip-shoulder separation in his delivery really allows you to project on his fastball velocity. His fastball sat 88-91 mph, and depending on which start you caught this spring, you could see him touching 93 or 87 mph on either side of that range. Salinas’ curveball is the biggest eye-catcher in the mix. It ranges between 70-77 mph, has an extraordinary amount of depth, and varies between a 12-to-6 and 1-to-7 shape. He also threw a rarely used changeup at 77-81 that tended to lack notable action.

Salinas’ command was usually well below average and unless something drastically improves with that, he’s almost certainly destined for a relief role. There’s more meat on the bone when it comes to Salinas’ frame and the velocity on his fastball. He’s a fun arm for the O’s development team, but they have a tall task in front of them in terms of improving Salinas’ strike throwing ability. Salinas and the Orioles reached agreement on a $150,000 bonus prior to the signing deadline.

The Phillies and Orioles consummated their second trade of the deadline period yesterday, as hard-throwing 29-year-old lefty Gregory Soto was sent to Baltimore in exchange for pitching prospects Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace. Soto has been having a pretty typical season, with a 4.08 ERA across 35.1 innings (43 appearances). He’s still throwing hard, and he’s accumulated a ton of walks and strikeouts having leaned more heavily on his incredible slider than in prior seasons. After a career-best year at avoiding free passes in 2023, Soto’s walk rate has ticked back up closer to his career norm of 12%; his fastball is also generating fewer swings and misses than ever before at a paltry 4.9% swinging strike rate, which is really low for a 98 mph heater.

Soto had mostly been squeezed out of high-leverage situations in Philly in deference to Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman, and was likely to see his opportunities further reduced by the recent acquisition of Carlos Estévez. While there’s nothing wrong with having a lefty who sits 98 as one of your lower-leverage guys, the way the market shaped up for multi-year relievers perhaps made it tempting for the Phillies to get more back in trade than is typical for a pitcher who is near the bottom of a bullpen depth chart. This one-for-two deal helps to build back a little of their farm system after the Estévez and Austin Hays trades.

In Baltimore, Soto joins Keegan Akin and Cionel Pérez as the lefties in the Orioles bullpen. He is under team control through next season. Any time an org like the Orioles acquires a pitcher whose results feel as though they’ve been far worse than his talent, you wonder if there’s something they might change about him that could help him be great. But Soto’s previous orgs, the Tigers and Phillies, have had recent success at improving pitchers, including late-bloomers like Hoffman. Perhaps there’s no low-hanging developmental fruit for the Orioles to reap here; Soto is 29 and might just be a semi-frustrating player who performs below what is typical for someone with his arm strength, let alone a lefty. That’s still constitutes a middle-inning upgrade for Baltimore. Will one of these teams be cursing themselves in a few months for having made the other more complete?

The Phillies got back two pitchers, one could help them as soon as next year, with the other being more of a developmental piece. Johnson, who is about to turn 26, had posted a 2.63 ERA (with a FIP and xFIP in the 4.13-4.26 range) as a starter at Double-A Bowie prior to the trade. The pandemic and an unfortunately timed Tommy John have prevented Johnson from posting a starter’s load of innings for consecutive seasons, and his 65 innings pitched as of the trade is already the most he’s thrown in a single season since 2021. Johnson sits 94-96 with riding life. An upper-80s cutter is his secondary weapon of choice, and he also has a mid-70s curveball with huge depth. There isn’t a platoon-neutralizing weapon here and the 2025 season will be Johnson’s last option year (unless the Phillies are given an extra option year because of his 2022 TJ), which together will probably squeeze Johnson into a bullpen role sometime next year.

Chace (pronounced CHA-say) is a medium-framed 21-year-old righty in his fourth pro season who has struck out more than a batter per inning each year of his career. Working in a piggyback role at Aberdeen prior to the trade, Chase has a good chance to develop a starter-quality pitch mix but probably not starter-quality command. He sits 93-96 with plus-plus vertical ride, he has a plus, 81-85 mph sweeper-style slider, and his changeup flashes bat-missing tail. Chace’s slider feel is advanced but that isn’t true of his other offerings. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this season and he’s going to be one of the more fascinating cases for protection. There are pretty clearly two viable big league pitches here right now, but Chace is quite far from the majors. Right now, I’d call him an unlikely add and bet that he doesn’t get Rule 5’d.

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The Boston Red Sox added 12-year veteran big league reliever Luis García to the back of their bullpen, which to this point was in the bottom third of the league in combined reliever ERA and strikeout rate. Headed to Anaheim are four prospects, three of whom are relatively close to the big leagues. Former shortstop and current 23-year-old left fielder Matthew Lugo, 25-year-old first baseman Niko Kavadas, and 26-year-old reliever Ryan Zeferjahn were all at Triple-A Worcester, while 19-year-old pitcher Yeferson Vargas was promoted to Low-A just before the deal.

García has been one of the 50 most productive relievers in baseball since the 2021 season. He’s top 60 in WAR, FIP, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP among relievers who’ve thrown at least 150 innings during that time, essentially a viable second-best reliever on a good team even as he climbed into his late-30s. García has a 1.17 WHIP this season even as his fastball velocity has declined two ticks from peak and a little more than one tick compared from last season. His sinker, splitter, and slider (especially the two secondaries, which are plus or better offerings generating huge swing-and-miss against big leaguers) remain good enough for García to play a relatively high-leverage role on a contender.

García hits free agency again this winter. It might feel like giving up four players is a lot for two months of a reliever, but if any team had a 40-man crunch this offseason it was going to be the Red Sox because of how many potentially serviceable position players they had in their system. Several of those players are now gone, including Kavadas, Lugo, Zeferjahn, Eddinson Paulino, and Nick Yorke. It’s good to have depth in the event of injury, but it’s plausible the Red Sox would either have lost a couple of these guys in the Rule 5 draft this offseason or clogged their roster trying to keep them.

Kavadas is striking out a third of the time at Triple-A, but he has enormous power and had a .975 OPS at the time of the trade. He’s posted a 57% hard-hit rate in Worcester and his swing is geared for lift in the extreme, with 20 degrees of launch on average. There will probably be a narrow window in Kavadas’ prime when he can get to enough power to be a relevant big league first baseman. A career trajectory similar to what Jared Walsh had with the Angels is feasible, where he enjoys one or two peak years of big power but over time is hindered by strikeouts in a way that is a problem for the overall profile of a 1B/DH athlete. Think Mike Ford.

A swing change and a more patient approach have unlocked an extra gear of power for Lugo and may have salvaged the former second round pick’s career, especially as he’s slid all the way down the defensive spectrum from shortstop to left field. His mistake-crushing style has him on pace to hit 30 homers in the minors this year. Hellbent on pulling the baseball, Lugo struggles to cover the outer third of the zone and swings inside a ton of pitches out there. Given his hit tool limitations and the way his defensive versatility has trended down, he looks more like an above-replacement up/down outfielder than a consistent role player.

Zeferjahn is a hard-throwing reliever who has averaged 96-98 with his fastball this year. He was utterly dominant at Double-A early in the season and was promoted to Worcester, where his command has returned to problematic career norms; he’s walking six batters per nine there. Zeferjahn’s fastball plays down because of poor movement and his lack of command, but he essentially has three average pitches and would be an up/down reliever in most orgs. He might play a more significant role for the Angels in the next couple of years. I expect he’ll be added to their 40-man roster this offseason.

Finally, Vargas is a stout, six foot righty who has cut his walks substantially compared to 2023 while also enjoying a two- or three-tick velocity spike. Vargas’ fastball averaged 92-93 last year and a scout who saw him earlier this spring had him sitting 93-95, but when I saw Vargas in June, he held 95-96 and touched 98 across three innings of work. He also has a snappy curveball in the 81-84 mph range that flashed plus on my look. At Vargas’ size, he’s perhaps more likely to be a reliever, but he’s made a ton of progress in the last year, especially in the strike-throwing department. He’s a hard-throwing developmental prospect with a good two-pitch foundation.

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The Yankees acquired Enyel De Los Santos and Thomas Balboni Jr. from the Padres in exchange for 27-year-old Triple-A center fielder Brandon Lockridge. The 28-year-old De Los Santos was having a strange, homer-prone season in San Diego prior to the trade but has otherwise performed near his career norms. In 40.1 innings, De Los Santos has a 4.46 ERA, a 28% strikeout rate, and a career-best 7.6% walk rate. His stuff has also been consistent with career norms, but Enyel’s approach to pitching has changed. His slider usage is way up this year and his approach to locating his fastball has also shifted to the upper part of the zone. Here are De Los Santos’ fastball locations against lefties each of the last two years:

Seven of the 11 homers (in 40.1 innings!) De Los Santos has surrendered this year have been off his fastball, a pitch he’s throwing less than ever before. Especially in the Yankee Stadium bandbox, I’d expect some kind of fastball alteration to happen here, even if it’s just a return to more of an east/west style of pitching.

De Los Santos has been in the big leagues since he was 22 but because several of those have been partial seasons, he’s only just now in his arbitration years and will hit free agency after the 2026 season, at age 31. In addition to the other relief pitcher additions that crowded out De Los Santos on the roster, it’s possible the Padres’ more budget-beholden approach post-Peter Seidler made De Los Santos’ looming arb salary consequential. Perhaps the lack of leverage created by this is why the Padres had to attach a prospect to Enyel to get Lockridge. That prospect is the 24-year-old Balboni, a sidearm reliever who has had a two-tick velocity spike this season. Balboni now sits 93-96 and has a high-spin slider. He’s not a great strike-thrower, but he’s got good stuff and a pretty good shot to wear a big league uniform eventually.

Coming back to the Padres is Lockridge, a nice upper-level depth player who can really go get it in center field and who fortifies the Padres’ center field depth behind Jackson Merrill to a degree. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s injury has put pressure on the Padres’ outfield depth and forced David Peralta, who isn’t hitting, into action. Lockridge might be a better big league roster fit than Bryce Johnson, who isn’t as good a defender. Tim Locastro, Óscar Mercado, Cal Mitchell, Tirso Ornelas, and José Azocar are all in El Paso, too.

Now that the draft is over and organizations are finishing the process of signing their picks, I wanted to share notes on some recent draftees here in the Midwest who I’ve been able to scout in-person multiple times over the past couple of years. I’m going to focus primarily on players who aren’t yet household names, but who have a skill set or tool that caught my eye. This bunch of notes will cover some recently drafted high schoolers, while the next batch will cover players from the college ranks.

Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS (NE)
Team: Reds Round: 2 Overall Pick: 51

Lewis was my favorite high school position player in the Midwest this year despite believing that he’ll slide over to second base long-term. Lewis swings it from the left side and has a well-rounded offensive skill set that gives you reason to project on both his hit tool and game power. Lewis’ swings are aggressive but under control, and his path keeps his bat in the zone for an extended period of time while also having enough loft to elevate; he shows solid-average raw power during batting practice presently and it projects to be plus in the future. There are times when Lewis’ swing will get longer and more prone to swing-and-miss, especially against plus velocity up in the zone. When Lewis is going well, he whips the bat through the zone with above-average bat speed and shows the ability to manipulate the barrel to cover multiple quadrants, though pitches down in the zone are the ones he does the most damage against. Read the rest of this entry »

I updated the Top 100 Prospects list late last week; you can find the accompanying piece I wrote, which has a little more detail on the farm system rankings, recent draftees and the trade deadline, here. I also wrote about all the pitchers on the Top 100. This piece goes through the hitters and why they stack the way they do.

Basically every top position player prospect you’ll read about here is an unfinished product. The very top of the list currently lacks a flawless elite prospect; even the most talented players in the minors right now have adjustments to make or blemishes that might become more of an issue against big league pitching. As with the piece on pitchers, you’ll probably want the list open in a separate tab to follow along with my notes; I’ve got that here, with hitters isolated away from the arms. Read the rest of this entry »

I updated the Top 100 Prospects list today. This post goes through the pitchers and why they stack the way they do. Here’s a link directly to the list, and here’s a link to the post with a little more detail regarding farm system and prospect stuff and the trade deadline. It might be best for you to open a second tab and follow along, so here are the Top 100 pitchers isolated away from the bats. Let’s get to it.
Read the rest of this entry »

With the most recent list cycle completed and the draft concluded, I’ve updated the Top 100 Prospects list, which you can now find over on The Board. I’ll have a couple of posts detailing the player movement up shortly, starting with the pitchers. Remember that you can see whose FV grade has changed with this update in the “Trend” column. There are several cases where a player’s ordinal ranking shifted a bit but their FV grade (which is the more important thing) did not, and thus they have no trend arrow.

In addition to the handful who made the Top 100, recent draft picks have been added to the team-by-team prospect lists. Graduating rookies have been pulled off the Updated 2024 Report and can be found on the 2024 Graduates tab. The pre-draft/pre-graduation 2024 Report can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2024 MLB Draft has concluded, and it’s time to make definitive judgments about which teams did the best and worst before many of the players have even signed their deals. Just kidding — while I do have a few team-specific thoughts below, this piece is more about what unfolded across the draft as a whole. I texted folks in the industry (scouts, executives, and agents) to see what they thought of the overall results, and if they noticed a continuation of broad industry trends or observed behavior specific to this year’s proceedings. I’ve incorporated some of their thoughts below. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cleveland Guardians made history at the Fort Worth Stockyards on Sunday night, drafting Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana first overall. I planted my flag on Bazzana Island back in February, and noted that he could become the first Australian player drafted no. 1 overall, as well as the first player born and raised anywhere other than the U.S. or its dependencies. Keith Law pointed out that because no. 2 overall pick Chase Burns was born in Italy (though raised in Tennessee), 2024 marked the first time that both of the top two picks were born outside the U.S.

Had the Guardians chosen University of Georgia third baseman Charlie Condon, a different kind of history could’ve been made. Condon would’ve been the third no. 1 overall pick from Marietta, Georgia, after Dansby Swanson and Kris Benson, which would’ve given that city of some 60,000 people the distinction of being the only municipality in America to produce three no. 1 overall picks. Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs was at the Futures Game in Arlington on Saturday. In total, 16 pitchers appeared in the seven-inning game. The following are some quick notes on every pitcher who toed the rubber during All-Star weekend’s premier prospect event. Obviously one game isn’t enough on its own to move the needle significantly for any of these guys — they all have a large body of work that can better inform our evaluations — but it’s useful to see whose stuff ticks up when they’re in an environment like the Futures Game and get to let it eat in a shorter burst than they’re accustomed to. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what the player was announced as, not necessarily what I have them projected as on The Board. For pitchers, I have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP). Read the rest of this entry »