2023 has been a rough year for the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re used to living in the NL Central penthouse, looking askance at whatever team happens to battle them for supremacy in a given season. Sometimes they lose those battles – the Cubs put together a nice run in the mid-2010s, the Reds had their time in the sun before that, and the Brewers have been a thorn in St. Louis’ side in recent years. But this kind of collapse – 47-60 and last place in the division – is unheard of.
The silver lining? The Cardinals had a ton of expiring contracts coming into the season, which means they have a ton of players to trade. With the deadline quickly approaching, they’re starting to turn those players into prospects. In two deals on Sunday, the Cardinals sent out Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, and Chris Stratton. Montgomery and Stratton are headed to the Rangers; meanwhile, better hope Hicks has a passport, because he’s now a Blue Jay. Eric Longenhagen is covering the prospects who are coming back to the Gateway City in a separate piece. Here, I’m just going to focus on how these three fit with their new teams, and the Cardinals’ general strategy from here on out.
Let’s start with the Rangers. This one is pretty straightforward: Montgomery slots into a hilariously deep Texas rotation. After acquiringMax Scherzer on Saturday, their playoff rotation looked solid. Now it looks even better. Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi (health permitting) are an above-average top duo, Montgomery is overqualified as a third starter, and after him there’s a whole grab bag of guys I wouldn’t feel either great or terrible about as my last playoff starter. Dane Dunning, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Martín Pérez are all cromulent options, and the three who don’t draw a rotation assignment might play up out of the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »
With the August 1 trade deadline fast approaching, the question on every baseball fan’s mind is: Will the Los Angeles Angels trade Shohei Ohtani?
Or at least, it was the question on every fan’s mind. On Wednesday evening, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reported that the 52-49 Angels have pulled Ohtani off the trade market.
What this piece presupposes is: What if they hadn’t?
We compiled this whole thing before Verducci’s report (and the Angels’ subsequent trade for Lucas Giolito), and we’re going to run it as a thought exercise because we aren’t about to let Arte Moreno ruin our fun. That Ohtani is reportedly no longer available perhaps suggests that the real offers Perry Minasian and Co. received were underwhelming. So what would it take to pry Ohtani loose?
Othershave taken that question for a spin, and now it’s our turn. Eleven members of the FanGraphs staff agreed to act as the GMs of opposing clubs and put their best proposal forward in an effort to land the two-way star. You’ll find those offers below. Teams are listed in descending order of their FanGraphs playoff odds. Prospect-eligible players have their Future Value grades noted in parentheses; you can find full scouting reports and tool grades for prospects and recent graduates on The Board.
Probably the last thing Arte Moreno wants to do is trade Shohei Ohtani to the team next door, but if he were willing to, I’d like to think this package from the Dodgers might look acceptable.
I used the 2021 Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster as a template, though in this case the All-Star hitter and All-Star pitcher being acquired are one and the same. In that deal, the Dodgers sent the Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray (55 FV), catcher Keibert Ruiz (55 FV), starting pitcher Gerardo Carrillo (40 FV) and outfielder Donovan Casey (not ranked) — and in that case they got an extra year of control (that of Turner) for the package. Here, with the competition so heavy, I’m going to have to include more talent and concede that extra club control while hoping that I at least get the inside track on retaining Ohtani once he hits free agency.
With All-Star catcher Will Smith in place and still with two years of club control, and with Dalton Rushing at High-A and likely to crack the Top 100 Prospects list next year, I’m headlining my package with Cartaya, a 21-year-old catcher who placed 28th on the Top 100 list this spring but who admittedly is having a rough first taste of Double-A. From the team’s wealth of pitching prospects, I’m tabbing Stone, who has scuffled in his three starts for the Dodgers this year but looks like a mid-rotation starter in the making, and Frasso, who was acquired in the Mitch White trade last summer and currently boasts a 32% strikeout rate at Double-A. I’m not opposed to swapping either of these pitchers out for Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, or even Emmet Sheehan, all of whom have more major league experience but probably lower ceilings.
I’m also including Busch and Deluca. Busch is a hitter with no clear defensive position (he can spot at second base); if this deal goes through, the Angels will have the DH slot open. Deluca is a fifth outfielder and depth piece, somebody with a big league future but not an overwhelming one. – Jay Jaffe
In this league, teams are often wary of the risk associated with trading potential long-term pieces for a rental. However, much like the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Reds, the Tampa Bay Rays have plenty of prospect depth and young big leaguers to pull from. And while it sounds like Yandy Díaz will be able to avoid an IL stint for his recent groin injury, it isn’t totally clear when the team’s most productive hitter will be able to rejoin a lineup that is trying to reclaim its spot atop the AL East. That, plus a pitching staff thinned by injuries, makes it clear that reinforcements are in order and should be pursued aggressively. Thus, the Rays should propose the following deal: Taj Bradley, Kyle Manzardo, and Ian Seymour for Shohei Ohtani, Carlos Estévez, and Gustavo Campero.
Bradley is an obvious headliner for an organization that will need pitching following Ohtani’s departure. The Rays right-hander can be inserted near the top of the Angels rotation, and any deal between these two teams would most likely have to include him. From Tampa’s perspective, a rotation of Ohtani, Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, and Zach Eflin (Eflin left Wednesday’s start with left knee discomfort, though his initial MRI results were encouraging) would be the best in the American League and would provide sufficient justification for trading away a talented, controllable pitcher such as Bradley. Eflin’s injury hurts, but a playoff top three of Ohtani, McClanahan, and Glasnow is tempting. Manzardo is directly blocked in the majors by the likes of Díaz and the combination of Luke Raley and Harold Ramírez. He’s an upper minors first baseman and is expendable in the short-term. You build up prospect depth for moves like this. Lastly, Seymour is facing a 40-man roster crunch coming off Tommy John surgery but has potentially electric stuff. He’d have more of an opportunity to stretch out as a starter in an organization like the Angels.
Adding Ohtani the pitcher would extend an already good rotation, but the big premium here is at the plate. In the last two months, the Rays’ have run a 99 team wRC+, and the lineup suddenly looks closer to average than elite. Ohtani would help bolster an offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching – he boasts a 195 wRC+ and 27 home runs against right-handers, though he’s not exactly shabby against southpaws. In addition to Ohtani, Estévez would bolster a bullpen that has lost countless relievers to significant arm injuries. He’s under team control through 2024, and unlike other Rays relievers, he isn’t even a project. Lastly, Campero is a late-blooming catching prospect who could provide offensive impact at what might be the only weak position in the organization. Despite Edgar Quero being traded to the White Sox and opening up a promotion, he is still blocked by Logan O’Hoppe. – Esteban Rivera
More than just about any other team, the Orioles are in an enviable position when it comes to the Ohtani talks, able to trade what amounts to expendable, close-to-the-majors talent — and they don’t even have to touch Jackson Holliday.
This isn’t to disparage Ortiz (the 51st-best prospect in baseball), Cowser (the Orioles’ no. 6 prospect, who dominated Triple-A before his call-up), or Hall (the team’s no. 9 prospect), all of whom have what it takes to contribute at the major league level. Rather, the three are replaceable on the big league roster.
Ortiz was the best-ranked of the three prospects midseason, but he can’t consistently earn playing time on a roster that’s got Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías, Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo covering second, third, and short — Ortiz has just 34 big league plate appearances despite a 141 wRC+ in Triple-A.
Cowser is currently on the big league roster, though he’s off to a slow start with a 45 wRC+ in 42 PA. Of course, the Orioles wouldn’t trade him because of that, but his opportunities will probably dwindle when Cedric Mullins is back from the IL, and Heston Kjerstad (regarded as the better prospect and also capable of playing first base) is also knocking on the door.
Hall is the only pitcher in the proposed deal and also the biggest unknown; he’s been down in Sarasota working on regaining his velocity and just pitched for the first time at any level since June 14 in a game on Monday. But his strikeout stuff has been tantalizing when in the majors; he’s struck out more than a third of the opponents he’s faced in his 16.2 big league innings.
Ultimately, the always-straddling-the-line Angels would find themselves with three players they could have in the majors immediately or at least imminently. Ortiz could take over at second base for the struggling Luis Rengifo right away, and Cowser could take an outfield spot and a few half-days in the Ohtani-less DH spot. Even with his velocity in peak form, Hall carries significant relief risk, but he could shore up a bullpen corps that has Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Jacob Webb, and José Soriano as its only really trusted options.
And, of course, Ohtani would give a boost to an Orioles lineup that’s solid (11th in the majors in OPS) but lacks a truly terrifying bat, and bolster a middling rotation (15th in the majors in ERA) that’s currently relying on a breakout from Grayson Rodriguez as its best hope for a step forward. The O’s could easily accommodate the kind of six-man rotation that Ohtani’s been accustomed to, particularly with Rodriguez’s innings being monitored anyway. – Jon Becker
I’m really hitting the gas here because I think Texas is the place where a two-month audition would be most meaningful to a club’s chances of signing Ohtani this offseason. Take him to a Cowboys game, romance him with what Texas has to offer at the cost of a slightly longer plane ride home, and remind him about the income tax rates in the Lone Star State relative to California.
I’m okay with coughing up Carter here because it looks like Leody Taveras has actually arrived. I’m personally kind of lukewarm on Carter (more on that here), but based on the types of players the Angels tend to acquire, I bet they’re not. The internet hype around Carter makes the optics of this deal with him at the center pretty attractive for the Halos.
Ditto for Leiter and Rocker, two marquee names Arte Moreno already knows. Leiter will probably be a solid big league starter, but I don’t think the Rangers would feel burned in a serious way by moving him within the division. Rocker I had evaluated as a reliever before his recent injury, and he seems fine to give up as a sweetener for the most talented player on the planet (he was the last guy I added to this offer).
Before you puke because this is too much to give up, remember that I’m essentially getting two players here. Texas doesn’t really have room for Justin Foscue on a star-studded big league infield, so he can go. Again, Foscue’s a good player, but he and Dustin Harris would both appeal to Anaheim’s statistical sensibilities in a way I’m eager to leverage because he’s superfluous to the Rangers for as long as the trio of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung is hitting. Aside from the rehabbing Rocker, this entire offer is composed of near-ready players who can help make Los Angeles’ rebuild go more quickly. Texas would have Earth’s hottest ticket for three months, with the hope that Shohei likes the way the wind blows through his hair in Arlington and signs up for more. – Eric Longenhagen
Would the Toronto Blue Jays be bold enough to trade one of their cornerstones — a player with two-plus years of team control remaining who was born in Canada, no less — for a rental plus a former top prospect who has thus far fallen short of his potential? Probably not, but the idea has more merit than you might think. If I were Toronto GM Ross Atkins, I might very well get Angels GM Perry Minasian on the horn and ask if he would consider dealing Shohei Ohtani and Jo Adell for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Far-fetched? Assuming Minasian picked up the phone, not necessarily. Here is why the Angels might agree to the trade:
First and foremost, it seems unlikely that the Anaheim-based club will be able to re-sign Ohtani this winter, which makes trading him a good idea. That said, while the yield from a deadline deal would provide more bang for the buck than draft-pick compensation, it’s not as though a Juan Soto-like package is in the offing. Not for a player about to become a free agent. For that reason, acquiring a 24-year-old All-Star who could immediately replace Ohtani in the middle of the lineup is safer than betting on prospects who may or make pan out. It would certainly be more palatable to the fanbase. Rather than jumpstart a rebuild, why not retool and continue to (or at least try to) contend?
Here is why Toronto might propose the trade:
The Blue Jays came into the season with high expectations, and this would be a win-now move that could propel them to the World Series. Not only would the lineup get stronger, the starting rotation would as well. Their postseason odds would go up meaningfully, and a one-two-punch of Ohtani and Kevin Gausman is something no team would want to face in October. The short-term gain is obvious.
As for the long-term, this would indeed be a risky move for the Jays. Even so, the potential upside goes beyond a short-term, flags-fly-forever World Series run. Toronto is a multi-cultural city that Ohtani could easily fall in love with over the coming months, greatly increasing the chances that he’d choose to call Ontario home for years to come. As for Vladdy Jr., his wRC+ has fallen in each of last three seasons, dropping from 166 to 132 to this year’s 121. As a first baseman, is his long-term value going to be worth what he’ll be paid in Canadian or American dollars? Adel would be the wild card in this deal. At worst, the Blue Jays would have a depth piece who is under team control for several more seasons as consolation should Ohtani sign elsewhere. At best, Adel becomes the player many once envisioned. It’s certainly possible. – David Laurila
The Phillies aren’t a favorite to land Ohtani, but after a couple of trades with the Angels at last year’s deadline that worked out well for both sides, maybe these two clubs can figure something out. After all, this is Dave Dombrowski we’re talking about. He pulled off the Miguel Cabrera trade. He pulled off the Chris Sale trade. He pulled off the Yoenis Cespedes trade – twice. Philadelphia might seem like a long shot for Ohtani, but no one is a long shot for Dombrowski.
The Phillies don’t have the big-name headliner the Angels are looking for – they aren’t selling low on Andrew Painter – but they can sweeten the deal with an extra top 100-type prospect. The Angels want two? The Phillies can give them three: Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and Justin Crawford. That’s two starting pitchers who could join the rotation by 2024 or 2025 and a center fielder of the future. On top of that, if L.A. is nervous about a deal centered around young pitching, Philadelphia can throw in William Bergolla. He’s only 18, but the young shortstop has plate discipline and contact skills beyond his years.
The Angels could also use some big league talent, so the Phillies can entice them with Ranger Suárez and Bryson Stott. Suárez has a lower FIP than almost everyone in the Angels’ rotation (including Ohtani), and he’s under team control for two more years. Stott is another young, talented infielder to pair with Zach Neto, and he won’t reach free agency until 2029.
Finally, it’s time for the cherry on top. One of Dombrowski’s most valuable skills as an executive is convincing ownership to spend, so Philadelphia can definitely take on a bad contract. Anthony Rendon is a bit too much to ask, even for Dombrowski, but how about David Fletcher? You have to think Perry Minasian would love the chance to erase a mistake from early in his Angels’ tenure.
Altogether, Philadelphia is offering high-upside prospects, controllable big leaguers, and a bit of financial freedom. Other teams have the high-end prospects to beat this offer, but it’s the best the Phillies can do without throwing in the entire IronPigs roster, the rights to the Phanatic, and the clubhouse kitchen sink. It’s not Jackson Holliday, but it’s a whole lot better than a compensatory pick. – Leo Morgenstern
If I’m the Giants, I’m still reeling from 2021’s early playoff exit after a 107-win season, 2022’s utterly underwhelming swoon, and this past offseason’s Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa near-misses. Given recent history, the front office must be especially hungry to make a deep postseason run, and with the Judge and Correa budget largely unspent, they might also be ready to open up the checkbook for Ohtani this winter. But why wait?
To get the Angels interested, let’s start with Kyle Harrison. The left-hander breezed through the lower minors and debuted with Triple-A Sacramento this spring at the age of 21, which is more than six years younger than the average pitcher at that level. He’s experienced some growing pains this year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but it’s really the first resistance he’s encountered in his young career. The Angels are already short on arms before dealing Ohtani, so a high-ceiling, near-ready pitching prospect could be a welcome centerpiece, as much as it would pain the Giants.
It’s too bad catching isn’t a big need for the Angels. The Giants seem inclined to hang on to switch-hitting rookie catcher Patrick Bailey, but Joey Bart or Blake Sabol could have been of interest if it weren’t for Matt Thaiss and Logan O’Hoppe.
Where the Giants can address another need is in the infield. There isn’t much in the way of infield depth behind 22-year-old Zach Neto. The Giants, meanwhile, are getting career-best years (or close to it) from Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr., and J.D. Davis, and have all but Davis under team control through at least 2025. Casey Schmitt – a versatile defender with some pop who debuted at the age of 24 in May – fits this deal well.
Power-hitting 21-year-old first baseman/corner outfielder Victor Bericoto, who just got the call to Double-A Richmond, rounds out the deal, giving the Angels another player with pretty clear potential to make a big league impact.
Three top-25 prospects is a scary haul to give up for two months of any player, especially with Harrison involved. But offer much less and Farhan Zaidi can expect to be outbid. If they’re able to keep Ohtani in San Francisco long-term, the cost to get him in the door will be soon forgotten. – Chris Gilligan
Arizona Diamondbacks Angels Receive: SS Geraldo Perdomo, CF Druw Jones (50 FV) Diamondbacks Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani
I was assigned Kim Ng of the Marlins in the Effectively Wildversion of this exercise. (It went very badly, thanks for asking.) So I called shotgun on Arizona for the reboot before the podcast went live. I figured the Diamondbacks were an ideal trade partner: They have needs at both DH and in the rotation, and their playoff fate is very much up in the air, so Ohtani could make as big a difference there as anywhere. The D-backs play in a park where Ohtani could put up truly hilarious offensive numbers, and they’re a fairly big-market team (even if they don’t always spend that way) with an up-and-coming core that could benefit from the additional shine. Plus, this would be a perfect time to cash in on Druw Jones, who’s one of the few prospects with enough star power for the Angels to sell to the public as an appropriate return. At the same time, he’s not too good to be untouchable from Arizona’s perspective. Jones is currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury, and questions are starting to pop up about whether he’ll reach the lofty ceiling that was projected for him out of the draft. Maybe he’ll straighten things out and get back on track, but the Diamondbacks could opt to move him rather than risk him losing “half the return of a blockbuster trade” value.
Then I listened to the podcast and Ginny Searle, playing Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, nailed it. The final offer: Jones, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Yu-Min Lin. I think that’s the perfect pitch, from Arizona’s perspective, and sure enough it won the whole thing. Now I not only have to land Ohtani for my beloved Snakes, I have to do it through different means.
So I’m going to start with Jones and add Geraldo Perdomo. You want pizzazz? How about one of the biggest stars in the minor leagues, the no. 2 overall pick a year ago? And on top of that, how about a 23-year-old shortstop who’s under team control through 2027, has a .389 OBP, and made the All-Star team this very year? If Ohtani is A-Rod, this is your Alfonso Soriano. Plus, it bears repeating, Druw Jones. Does that leave a gaping hole in my own infield? Yes. But if I have Ohtani I can figure it out later. – Michael Baumann
The Yankees haven’t shown nearly as much faith in Oswald Peraza as they have in Anthony Volpe, often passing over the former for veterans. Why is anyone’s guess, but Peraza would be extremely appealing to the Angels. His burgeoning 60-grade defense could slot in nicely next to Zach Neto up the middle for years to come. He’s no slouch with the bat, either: In 645 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s slashed .260/.337/.463 for a 106 wRC+, in line with his 108 mark in 118 major league PAs thus far.
High-floor, big league-ready talent? Check. Near-ready high-ceiling prospect? Jasson Domínguez fits the bill. The switch-hitting outfielder, already in Double-A at just 20 years old, has tremendous pop and speed despite some swing-and-miss to his game. If he doesn’t stick in center, it could spell trouble for his overall value. But the upside is power rarely seen at a premium up-the-middle spot, and Domínguez’s physicality just might be what it takes to unseat Mike Trout in center as the latter begins to decline defensively.
Another high-ceiling play is right-hander Chase Hampton, who we had as the Yankees’ 33rd-ranked prospect coming into this season after glimpsing a velo increase and a new cutter/slider in spring training. He’s taken his new tools and run with them, earning a promotion to Double-A after his first 47 pro innings came with a 40.5% strikeout rate in High-A.
Rounding out the deal is Clarke Schmidt. After posting a 6.00 ERA through his first 10 starts this year, the former first-rounder has refined his new cutter and come into his own; over his last 10 starts, he’s pitched to an even 3.00 ERA. While his FIP hasn’t changed much, the recent success is due to a newfound ability to limit hard contact: his barrel rate has shrunk 3.8 percentage points and his hard-hit rate has dropped 6.5. The cutter is especially improved — it’s averaging 1.2 extra inches of cut and 1.3 of drop since his 10th start.
If the Yankees make the out-of-favor Peraza the headliner, they could easily shift DJ LeMahieu over to third, where for the time being, he could approximate the youngster’s value. Ohtani, meanwhile, could slot right into Schmidt’s spot, and they could even go to a six-man rotation — as the Angels have — upon Nestor Cortes‘ return. As for Ohtani’s spot in the lineup, Giancarlo Stanton will have to spend more time in right field in order to free up the DH spot. But Big G hasn’t been a huge negative in the field; on a per-inning basis, he’s placed 341st out of 444 fielders with at least 100 innings under their belts in fielding run value. Plus, since joining the Yankees, he’s hit six points of wRC+ better when he’s been in the field. This deal — and its ripple effects — should ensure the Bombers another playoff spot. – Alex Eisert
What would it take for the Reds to make a play for Shohei Ohtani? When Effectively Wild played the Ohtani trade game last week, that was the question I tried to answer, assuming the role of Nick Krall to Ben’s Perry Minasian.
My proposal, which ultimately didn’t win out, was Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Edwin Arroyo, Brandon Williamson, and Lyon Richardson for Ohtani. Benasian turned it down, but I wanted to take another crack at making an argument for my offer.
I think this type of offer is realistically the best the Reds would do in this situation. It would be absolutely shocking to see Elly De La Cruz or Matt McLain move in a trade, so I can’t just throw one of them in to land Ohtani. Whether it’s justified or not, the Reds simply aren’t going to spend much money under the current ownership regime, so there’s no chance of Ohtani being extended. They’re also not going to trade away too much talent that they’ll have to replace later.
Encarnacion-Strand is still looking for a final defensive home, but the power is real and while ZiPS isn’t quite sold on him overall, especially as a starting third baseman, it sees him as having some .500 slugging percentage seasons in the majors. He’s also in the big leagues, and even if he turns out not to be the highest upside offensive player offered for Ohtani, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the safest bat we would see in an offer. I think this is important to the Angels; whether or not Ohtani’s gone for good, I don’t think this is a team with the stomach for a full rebuild. Williamson and Richardson fit along these lines. Neither has a super high ceiling, but both have a pretty high floor, as well as the ability to contribute quickly to a retooled Angels team.
Arroyo, on the other hand, does have a decent ceiling and was on our preseason Top 100, though his FV has slipped since then. His inclusion ensures the Angels get significant value for an Ohtani rental. The team is very short on middle infield prospects now that Zach Neto has graduated from eligibility, and there’s a long-term hole that Arroyo could fill here.
Is it enough? I’m not sure, but either way, I’m not going to try to do a bad Nick Krall impression again anytime soon. – Dan Szymborski
The Mariners will almost certainly be in the running to sign Ohtani this offseason once he hits free agency. The chants of “Come to Seattle” that rained down during the All-Star game made the fans’ hopes quite clear, and the Mariners would be remiss if they didn’t make a competitive offer for the generational talent this winter. But what about the 2023 season? The M’s have hovered around .500 for nearly the entire year, never creeping more than three games over that mark or falling more than five games below it. That has put them on the AL playoff bubble, though the strength of their pitching staff indicates they’ve underperformed a bit. Pushing all their chips in for a remote shot at a repeat postseason appearance would be a pretty big risk, though for Ohtani, it might be worth it.
The Mariners send: RHP Bryce Miller, RHP Emerson Hancock, CF Jonatan Clase, 2B Michael Arroyo.
Any trade package from the Mariners needs to start with one of their young starting pitchers. The Angels have struggled to develop impact talent on the mound and the Mariners are swimming in young pitchers with plenty of team control. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are probably off the table, so the M’s offer would be centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. I like Woo a little better than Miller because his secondary pitches seem a little more developed, but Miller has the best graded pitch between the two of them in his fastball.
Emerson Hancock has been a little inconsistent at Double-A Arkansas this year, but he’s a nearly big league-ready starter with a deep repertoire and enough prospect shine to be a nice complement to Miller. He’d be ready to contribute to the Angels rotation as soon as September. Clase has the big athletic tools that the Angels have so often coveted in prospects and he had a phenomenal start to the season in High-A Everett, posting a 197 wRC+ in 21 games there. He’s come back down to earth after getting promoted to Double-A, though his combination of power and speed should be enticing for the Angels.
Finally, with Cole Young looking like he’s on the fast track through the Mariners system and Colt Emerson and Tai Peete getting drafted this year, it seems like Michael Arroyo is getting buried on Seattle’s middle infield depth chart. That shouldn’t affect the way the Angels value him, and he has the potential to become the second-best prospect in this deal, though he’s still a little raw around the edges. He’s currently posting a 116 wRC+ as an 18-year-old at Single-A Modesto. – Jake Mailhot
Spencer Strider came up in a conversation I had with Max Scherzer prior to Friday night’s game at Fenway Park. We were talking about the veteran right-hander’s evolution as a pitcher — I’d first interviewed Scherzer in 2010 — and velocity and strikeout rates were predictably among the topics that popped up. Hence the mention of the 24-year-old Atlanta Braves hurler with the high-octane heater and eye-popping 39.7% strikeout rate.
“He’s got a heck of a fastball, for sure,” Scherzer said when I mentioned Strider. “And he’s still developing. One of the things Flash Gordon told me when I was a rookie coming up with the Diamondbacks is that you don’t walk into this league as an ace. His comments were, ‘Guess what? When Pedro and Roger first got in the league, they threw five innings. They were five-and-dive guys. Then they learned how to pitch; they learned how to get guys out multiple times through the order.’ It takes time to learn to be consistent at this level.
“Applying that logic — the wisdom that I heard many, many years ago — Spencer Strider is continuing to get better,” continued Scherzer. “He’s continuing to add stuff to his game while pitching great and striking out a lot of guys out in the process. As long as he stays healthy, he’s got a lot of upside with what he’s going to be able to do with the baseball.”
Strider is 23-8 with a 3.20 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, and 391 strikeouts in 250-and-two-thirds innings. He’s surrendered just 180 hits. The idea that he could become even better is a scary proposition for hitters. My staying as much elicited a strong opinion from the former Cy Young Award winner and seven-time All-Star. Read the rest of this entry »
Génesis Cabrerachanged feathers on Friday, as he was traded from St. Louis to Toronto for teenage catching prospect Sammy Hernandez a few days after Cabrera was designated for assignment. The hard-throwing 26-year-old southpaw had spent parts of five volatile seasons with the Cardinals. While he has enjoyed a significant bat-missing rebound in 2023 compared to last season (he’s back into the 26% K% area, up from 16.5% in 2022), Cabrera was in the midst of yet another rocky, homer-prone year before he was DFA’d. He introduced an upper-80s slider/cutter to his repertoire this year and has been using it a ton (36%), while his fastball velocity has slipped a bit. All of Cabrera’s non-fastball pitches generate above-average swinging strike rates, while his mid-90s heater tends to get shelled even though he and the Cardinals made changes to it this year. Perhaps a change of scenery and new outside intervention will lead to another tweak in this area:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wasn’t exactly the forgotten man at the 2023 Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park; this scribe was hardly alone in predicting he’d win. But the 24-year-old slugger didn’t put up an astronomical total of dingers the way hometown favorite Julio Rodríguez did in the first round (breaking Guerrero’s own 2019 record of 40 homers, at that). Nor did he cruise into the finals by a lopsided score the way Randy Arozarena did in knocking off the top-seeded Luis Robert Jr. in the semifinals. Guerrero did start his night by steamrolling Mookie Betts, then narrowly eked out wins over both Rodríguez and Arozarena to take home the championship that eluded him in 2019, when he was runner-up to Pete Alonso. In victory, he joined his father, who won in 2007, as the first father-son duo to win the Derby. Congrats to Vlad and Dad.
With Blue Jays manager John Schneider serving as his pitcher, Guerrero — one of just three contestants who had participated in a previous Derby, along with Alonso and Rodríguez — needed until his fifth swing to get on the board, but once he did, with a 453-footer, he found his groove. He beat Betts handily, 26–11, then walked off against Rodríguez, needing just one homer in bonus time to win, 21–20. He hit 25 in the finals, a record for the shorter round (two minutes instead of three), then had to wait out Arozarena, who finished regulation with 20. Crucially, Arozarena only had the standard 30 seconds of extra time because he hadn’t gotten the distance bonus, unlocked when a player hit two homers with projected distances of at least 440 feet — something Guerrero managed in all three rounds. Arozarena ran out of both gas and time as his final fly balls fell short; he finished with 23 homers to make Guerrero the champion, the second-youngest in history by a day (1993 winner Juan Gonzalez was younger).
Guerrero will serve as a reserve for Tuesday night’s All-Star Game after starting at first base in each of the past two seasons. Yandy Díaz was voted to start for the AL, and it’s tough to complain when he’s hitting .323/.408/.515 for a 165 wRC+, the highest of any first baseman in either league by 10 points (NL starter Freddie Freeman is second at 155) and the second-highest of any qualified hitter behind only Shohei Ohtani.
Diaz’s 165 wRC+ is reminiscent of the league-leading 166 Guerrero put up during his 2021 season. We’re now two years removed from that breakout campaign, when at age 22, Vladito made a run at the Triple Crown, falling short but still hitting an impressive .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers and 6.3 WAR. His home run total led the league, as did his on-base percentage, a small consolation for finishing “only” third in batting average; likewise, he led in total bases and slugging percentage and was second in WAR, a pretty good offset for finishing “only” fifth in RBIs.
When you’re 22 years old and the son of a Hall of Famer, a season like that sends expectations into the stratosphere, so it’s come as something of a disappointment that Guerrero’s follow-up seasons have not been up to that standard. He hit .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers, a 132 wRC+, and 2.8 WAR last year, and arrived at the All-Star break batting .274/.344/.443 with 13 homers, a 120 wRC+, and (gulp) 0.4 WAR this year. A good — or not-so-good, actually — part of that decline in value is Guerrero’s defense, which has gone downhill quickly. I’ll get to that below, but what everyone is wondering is what’s happened to his offense. In looking at his numbers, a few things stand out. Read the rest of this entry »
The Rays have been really good this year, but their bullpen has not. And this has come despite them largely sticking to their strategy of deploying relievers with a wide variety of different release points: two sidearm righties in Kevin Kelly and Ryan Thompson, one sidearm lefty in Jake Diekman, an over-the-top righty in Pete Fairbanks, and an over-the-top lefty in Jalen Beeks. This strategy has succeeded in the past: from 2020 to ’22, Rays relievers have never posted an ERA higher than 3.37; their collective ERA of 3.31 in that span is second only to the Dodgers (whose bullpen also happens to be struggling this year); and their FIP of 3.71 ranks third.
This year, things are different. Even with some modest improvements of late, Tampa Bay’s 12th-ranked 3.83 ERA belies ugly peripherals, including a 4.43 FIP that ranks sixth-worst. The rotation has been ravaged by injuries, forcing the team to turn to the bullpen earlier in games; Rays relievers have tossed 1.26 innings per appearance on average this season, the fourth-highest in the league. But some of this is due to the usage of followers, which is nothing new; perhaps what’s behind the drop-off is simply too much of an emphasis on forcing opposing hitters to deal with different looks.
The Blue Jays, perhaps unintentionally, have taken this lesson to heart. Having signed one of the best splitter-throwers in Kevin Gausman prior to 2022, they traded for another this past offseason in Erik Swanson. Despite the league-wide increase in splitter usage due to its potential as a platoon-neutral offering for pronating and sweeper-throwing hurlers, only 2.2% of all pitches thrown so far this year have been splitters. Given the uniqueness of the pitch, the Jays should have Gausman and Swanson throw on different days to maximize the surprise factor, right? Just as the Rays might save two similar sidearmers for different days? Read the rest of this entry »
Jordan Romano is one of the best closers in baseball, but you wouldn’t know it from perusing your average sports page. He’s a quiet star, in the mildly pejorative sense often implied by “quiet” — not well-enough known, not well-enough talked about, somehow lacking in whatever je ne sais quoi that makes you a star.
Here’s the thing, though: that’s silly. At FanGraphs, we try to avoid that very way of thinking, and yet we’ve written almost nothing about Romano in the past few years. An interview here, a hockey anecdote there, the occasional fantasy piece — it’s not what you’d expect from a guy at the top of the bullpen hierarchy for a playoff team. I’m not kidding myself; this article is Canadian fan service. Let’s talk about what makes Romano so dang good, and ignore why audiences in America seem to ignore him.
If you’re looking at it from a pitch perspective, this one is pretty easy. Romano is good because he throws a hellacious fastball and backs it with an above-average slider. His fastball is a work of art. All the things you’ve heard about what makes a four-seamer good? He has them. He avoids the dreaded line of normality that plagues some heaters that underperform their radar gun numbers; his is mostly up-and-down. Per Baseball Savant, his fastball drops 1.7 inches less than the average four-seamer thrown with similar velocity and also gets 2.4 inches less arm-side fade. In other words, when he throws it to a righty, it ends up less inside than they expect, and also meaningfully higher. Read the rest of this entry »
Games are shorter this season due to the pitch clock, which means that starting pitchers are usually throwing an outing’s worth of offerings in less time than they typically did in previous years. Whereas a quality start of seven innings and 100 pitches might have taken two hours and 15 minutes in the past — this before a call to the bullpen — it can take as little as an hour and 45 minutes in 2023. Those times will obviously vary, with the effectiveness of the opposing pitcher playing a major role, but the fact remains that such an outing now regularly takes place within a more condensed time frame.
How different is this for starting pitchers? Moreover, is throwing that number of innings and pitches in a narrower time frame harder, or is it actually easier? I’ve asked those questions to several pitchers since the start of the season, with their answers sometimes extending to other aspects of the new pitch clock. Here is what they’ve had to say.
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Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians: “Good question. To give you a real response on the impact… we’ll probably see at the end of the year after a great big body of work. Right? The number of quality starts, or whatever you want to call them. But for me, personally, I’m not finding much of a difference. I work pretty quick, especially without runners on. Last year, I think I was the second fastest without runners on base. Maybe the first. Wade Miley works extremely fast, as well. Read the rest of this entry »
Taj Bradley has had an up-and-down rookie season with the Rays, but only in terms of promotions and demotions. The 22-year-old right-hander has twice been optioned to Triple-A, and three times he’s been summoned back to the big leagues. He might be in Tampa Bay to stay. Over six starts comprising 30 innings, Bradley has logged a 3.62 ERA and a 2.82 FIP, with wins in three of five decisions. Moreover, he’s fanned 42 batters while issuing just five free passes.
The level of composure he’s displayed belies his age and inexperience. While many players performing on the big stage for the first time have a fast heartbeat, his has been borderline bradycardia. In a word, Bradley is chill.
“I’m not the kind of person to get too caught up in anything,” the 2018 fifth-round pick out of Stone Mountain, Georgia’s Redan High School told me on Friday. “If I were to meet a celebrity, or pitch in a big game, I wouldn’t be making too much of a moment of it. I always downplay things. I mean, you do get your nerves, but I don’t build it up. Someone might say, ‘Oh, you made your debut,’ or ‘Oh, you got a win against the Red Sox,’ but I just go about my day.”
Bradley’s debut, which came at home in a spot start against Boston on April 12, did elicit emotions. Being unflappable may be in his DNA, but it’s not as though he’s an unfeeling cyborg. Nearly two months later, the game remains a blur. Read the rest of this entry »
I don’t know about you, but I was very excited about the Blue Jays’ outfield coming into this season. In December, the team signed veteran defensive wizard Kevin Kiermaier to take over in center field, pushing incumbent George Springer to right. Just a few weeks later, they sent catcher Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks so that young defensive wizard and all-around rising star Daulton Varsho could play left. If you’re keeping score at home, that makes one George Springer and two defensive wizards. Most teams don’t have two defensive wizards. There just aren’t that many wizards running around, and the ones who play baseball tend to prefer the infield. The Blue Jays had three center fielders, two of whom were well-respected veterans with long track records on successful teams, two of whom were coming off four-win seasons, and two of whom could reasonably claim to be, when healthy, the best defensive outfielder in all of baseball. That’s a pretty exciting Venn diagram.
