Archive for Brewers

Sunday Notes: David Stearns and Ron Gardenhire Differ On The Shift

Would MLB actually go so far as to ban the shift? Asked about that conjecture, David Stearns made it clear that he’s no fan of the idea. Not because he’s against change, but rather because change is already a big part of baseball. More specifically — yes, there have been exceptions to the rule — organic charge is already a big part of baseball.

“Teams have evolved,” the Brewers GM said during the Winter Meetings. “Strategies have evolved. Players adjust, and they will on this one as well. If shifts become completely deflating to certain profiles of players, we will value them accordingly. Things will balance themselves out. Look, we’ve been moving fielders around for decades. I would not be in favor of a ban on shifts.”

Ron Gardenhire feels otherwise. He favors an inorganic fix to the perceived (and arguably nonexistent) problem.

“I like two guys on each side,” the Detroit manager stated in equally-stern terms. “I’ve always said that. Or at least keep them all in the dirt rather than in the grass. Ask Victor Martinez. He might have hit .300 this year if they just had them on the infield. Yeah, I am old school in that respect.”

The veteran skipper elaborated on his viewpoint in a manner suggestive of… an organic substance? Going pure Gardy, he name-checked the man erroneously credited with inventing the game, another sport, and a comedy duo from a bygone era. Read the rest of this entry »


Elegy for ’18 – Milwaukee Brewers

Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain led the Brewers offense in 2018.
(Photo: Ian D’Andrea)

The World Series may have been a battle of big market Goliaths, but one last David held out in the Milwaukee Brewers. Powered by two MVP candidates in the outfield, the remnants of the best logo of the 1980s, and perhaps most strangely, the confusing, awesome powers of Wade Miley, Milwaukee stood strong long past the pumpkinization of other sabermetric-darling Cinderellas. And when they went down, of the seven non-Boston teams to survive the wild card round, the Brew Crew was the only one to take their opponents to an elimination game, making Dylan Thomas proud.

The Setup

Of the franchises that underwent a significant teardown cycle over the last decade, the rebuilding of the Milwaukee Brewers may have been among the most low-key. One reason for this is that while other franchises that had to be dragged into their down cycles kicking and screaming and pretending disaster was not upon them, Milwaukee showed an unusual realpolitik about the state of their franchise. A lot of teams would have taken the wrong lesson from Milwaukee’s 82-80 2014 season, when they surprisingly led the NL Central uninterrupted from the second week of the season until the end of August, and believed they were just a couple mediocre veterans away from the promised land.

The Brewers, on the other hand, saw the opportunity to trade Yovani Gallardo while the getting was good (before a 30% drop in strikeout rate was reflected in his ERA). And when 2015 became a mess, the team wasted little time dithering, jumping straight into a rebuild before the roster was a bleak Kafka-esque wasteland of value while simultaneously transitioning to a new braintrust let by David Stearns, with the handoff from Doug Melvin being one of the smoothest transfers of power in human history.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Q&A and Sunday Notes: The Best Quotes of 2018

In 2018, I once again had the pleasure of interviewing hundreds of people within baseball. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came courtesy of the FanGraphs Q&A series, the Learning and Developing a Pitch series, the Manager’s Perspective series, and a smattering of feature stories. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations.

———

“My slider will come out and it will be spinning, spinning, spinning, and then as soon as it catches, it picks up speed and shoots the other way. Whoosh! It’s like when you bowl. You throw the ball, and then as soon as it catches, it shoots with more speed and power. Right? “ — Sergio Romo, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher, January 2018

“One of the biggest lessons we learn is that iron sharpens iron. That is 100% how we try to do things with the Rockies — hiring people that are smarter than we are, and more skilled, and have different skills that can complement, and train people to be better at their jobs than I am at my job. That’s how you advance an organization.” — Jeff Bridich, Colorado Rockies GM, January 2018

“We could split hairs and say, ‘Hey, you’re playing in front of a thousand drunk Australians instead of 40,000 drunk Bostonians, and you’re living with a host family instead of at a five-star hotel.’ But The Show is The Show, and in Australia the ABL is The Show.” — Lars Anderson, baseball nomad, January 2018

“Baseball is heaven. Until our closer blows the game.” — Michael Hill, Miami Marlins president of baseball operations, January 2018 Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Analytics Have Changed, Leadership Hasn’t Changed

Last Sunday’s column led with J.D. Martinez, whose non-quantifiable impact on the Red Sox lineup was widely lauded. Deeply enmeshed in hitting mechanics and theory, the veteran slugger was both a sounding board and lead-by-example influence on several of his teammates. That didn’t go unnoticed by people around the game.

“J.D. rightfully so got credit for doing that,” said Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell, one of three managers I broached the subject with at the Winter Meetings. “It’s an important part of being a teammate — being connected and sharing. A player’s eyes are probably on each other more than they are on the coaches. They have a way to help each other, just as much as coaches do. You want to foster that environment. It’s something all teams should try to do.”

Asked for an example of a positive influence on his own team, Counsell cited Ryan Braun. Responding to that same question, Oakland manager Bob Melvin named a player who may or may not be wearing an A’s uniform next year.

“Jed was the guy last year for us,” Melvin said of now-free-agent Jed Lowrie. “(He) understands mechanics. He understands launch angles and exit velocities. (He) was a nice kind of player/coach for us to help out Bushy (hitting coach Darren Bush) with some of our younger guys.” Read the rest of this entry »


Domingo Santana Heads to Seattle

No doubt partially out of a sense of jealousy at watching other teams make trades Friday without making one of his own, Jerry Dipoto and the Seattle Mariners added a veteran, picking up outfielder Domingo Santana from the Milwaukee Brewers for outfielder Ben Gamel and pitcher Noah Zavolas.

After acquiring Christian Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain last offseason, the Brewers faced a bit of a roster crunch when it came to the outfield. On pure merit, it made the most sense for Ryan Braun to see his role shrink coming into the season, but seriously reducing their longtime franchise player’s playing time was something I don’t believe the front office was ever seriously considering. Braun would get some at-bats at first to spell Eric Thames, and between that and various days off and possible injury stints for the quartet, Santana would get playing time and everybody would be happy. And if that didn’t work out, Santana was coming off a .278/.371/.505 age-24 season that could help snag the Brewers a starting pitcher.

Everything worked out quite well for the Brewers, but not so much for Santana. The team was able to juggle the five players in question quite well in the early going, enough to get Santana 24 starts in April, though that was aided by Yelich’s sore oblique that sent him to the ten-day DL. It would be hard to claim that Santana did much with his April playing time, only hitting .237/.321/.269 with no homers. Thames’s thumb injury required the Brewers to have a full-timer at first, and with Jesus Aguilar made the absolute most of the opportunity and the outfield healthy, Santana’s playing time dropped quickly. The return of Thames created another roster crunch and Santana, with an option year available, spent July and August starting for Colorado Springs. He was called up in September, but purely as a reserve and only got a single start for the month.

The Brewers would have had a lot more difficulty trading Santana for a pitcher at this point, so rather than pay him to be a role player, they sent him over to the Mariners for a less expensive role player who can cover center field. Santana’s still relatively young and with three years to go until free agency, he’s more interesting than a pillow contract for a one-year reclamation projection. Even hanging onto Mitch Haniger, Santana likely starts in a corner for Seattle as there’s simply far more promise in his future than that of Jay Bruce.

As Eric Longenhagen noted to me, Zavolas is a former college starter with a low-90s fastball who changes speed well but is missing a solid breaking pitch. Harvard alumni will likely appreciate Zavolas for having thrown a no-hitter against Yale back in April, but he smells a lot like an organizational player to me. He got good results in his debut in the minors, but a 22-year-old ought to be crushing the Northwest League.

From a pure “this is what they project” standpoint, Santana and Gamel come out fairly evenly. I still believe that Santana has some upside remaining, but it will have to involve some kind of improvement in his plate discipline. Santana swung at more bad pitches in 2018 than in 2017, and what’s especially troubling is that unlike some bad-ball swingers, he’s actually quite poor at making contact with the out-of-zone pitches, 14 percentage points worse than the league average in 2018. It feels like there’s a really good player hidden away somewhere in Santana should he adopt a better approach at the plate, but finding that can’t be assured and none of his three previous organizations were able to make him into a better hitter.

ZiPS Projections – Domingo Santana
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2019 .231 .329 .430 437 58 101 19 1 22 57 60 187 6 109 -2 1.5
2020 .232 .331 .436 427 58 99 19 1 22 57 60 184 5 111 -3 1.6
2021 .223 .327 .430 421 57 94 19 1 22 55 61 187 5 108 -3 1.4

ZiPS Projections – Ben Gamel
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2019 .267 .331 .413 479 65 128 27 8 9 53 44 108 10 96 2 1.3
2020 .261 .327 .411 394 53 103 23 6 8 43 37 91 8 95 2 0.9
2021 .263 .329 .418 373 51 98 22 6 8 41 35 83 7 97 1 0.9
2022 .263 .328 .419 365 49 96 21 6 8 41 34 80 7 97 1 0.9

The Alex Claudio Trade Tells Us a Lot

On the surface, Thursday’s trade that sent left-handed pitcher Alex Claudio from Texas to Milwaukee in exchange for a competitive balance pick seemed relatively innocuous. A rebuilding team sent a middle reliever to a competitive team that needed one in exchange for an asset — in this case, a draft pick — with a maturation timeline that better fits that of the rebuilding club. But this trade also might tell us a little more about how the Brewers think about pitching, and help us to calibrate the way we think about draft prospects, particularly advanced college relievers.

But first, let’s talk about Claudio, who is entering his first year of arbitration and will be under team control for three more. Kiley and I posited in the Brewers prospect list’s System Overview (it’s at the bottom) that Milwaukee seems drawn to pitching curiosities. This is, of course, our subjective opinion, but the list of Brewers draftees and minor leaguers who have weird deliveries or unique release points has grown to the point where it seems to be an organizational focus or, at least, an organizational experiment. And Claudio, for those who have not been lucky enough to see him pitch for Texas over the last few years, looks like this:

It’s not easy to make big league hitters look goofy under normal circumstances, let alone when you only throw 86 mph. It’s clear the bizarre nature of Claudio’s delivery plays a role in his success. For context, here’s how Claudio’s release point looks on paper when given some context. Here I’ve compared Claudio’s release point to a lefty with a pretty generic delivery.

The proliferation of Trackman at the minor league and college levels enables teams to measure things like release point, and identify players who are bizarre or unique in this regard. Extension probably factors into this, as well, and I think adding that could enable us or teams to plot release points in three dimensions, and learn even more about what helps stuff play beyond just velocity and movement.

Claudio is also effective because he’s a rare reliever with plus-plus command. He’s walked just 4.5% of hitters during each of his three years in the big leagues and, when he misses, he misses down. His ability to dump sinkers and changeups into the bottom part of the strike zone or just beneath it and almost never, ever miss up in the zone is remarkable, and it’s a huge part of why Claudio has been able to induce ground balls at a 60% clip in the big leagues.

Teams have begun to think about pitching like wine and cheese. They’re more concerned about how pitches pair together rather than just evaluating each pitch’s quality in a vacuum. A general rule of thumb is that sinking fastballs pair well with changeups because they have similarly shaped movement, sinking and running toward the pitcher’s arm side. And again, Claudio is a great example of this, with his fastball and changeup movement overlapping exactly.

We know what Claudio is at this point. He’s going to be a good middle relief option whose WAR production will likely hover around 1.0, perhaps maxing out close to the 1.7 WAR he netted in 2017. Based on how we map WAR to the 20-80 scouting scale, Milwaukee got a 40-45 FV player for the next three years. Mapping Claudio’s WAR production to the scouting scale helps us make an apples to apples comparison in situations where we otherwise would not be able to, as in this instance, where Claudio was traded, straight up, for a draft pick.

The competitive balance pick Texas received from Milwaukee is going to be close to the 40th overall selection in the draft, give or take a few spots depending on how free agent compensation picks shake out ahead of that selection. As you can see from our last several years of MLB Draft evaluations (here’s 2018), that 40th overall range is typically right about where the 45 FV and 40 FV tiers blend together, which is akin to Claudio’s value when he’s placed on the 20-80 scale. In short, based on how we think about relievers and how we expected draft prospects in the late first and early second round to pan out, this seems like a fair, logical trade for both teams.

In every draft there are a few college pitchers who seem like they could pitch in a big league relief role right away. It’s almost never a plan teams actually enact for various reasons, but this trade also gives us an idea of where that type of prospect would go in a draft. It would take a confluence of variables for such a selection to be made (a team with a relief need, a very seller-friendly or completely barren reliever trade market that forces that team to turn to the draft, and a specific type of prospect) but this part of the draft is where the drop-off in potential ceiling could lead teams to focus on other traits, like proximity and risk. In other words, the Brewers seem to have told us who they’d take in June if given the choice between this theoretical college arm and, say, a high school hitter whose career is much harder to predict.


2018 Rule 5 Draft Scouting Reports

The major-league phase of Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft began with its annual roll call of clubs confirming the number of players currently on their 40-man rosters and ended with a total of 14 players being added to new big-league clubs. Dan Szymborski offered ZiPS projections here for the players taken earlier today. Below are brief scouting reports on the players selected, with some notes provided by Kiley McDaniel.

But, first: Our annual refresher on the Rule 5 Draft’s complex rules. Players who signed their first pro contract at age 18 or younger are eligible for selection after five years of minor-league service if their parent club has not yet added them to the team’s 40-man roster. For players who signed at age 19 or older, the timeline is four years. Teams with the worst win/loss record from the previous season pick first, and those that select a player must not only (a) pay said player’s former club $100,000, but also (b) keep the player on their 25-man active roster throughout the entirety of the following season (with a couple of exceptions, mostly involving the disabled list). If a selected player doesn’t make his new team’s active roster, he is offered back to his former team for half of the initial fee. After the player’s first year on the roster, he can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

These rules typically limit the talent pool to middle-relief prospects or position players with one-dimensional skillsets, though sometimes it involves more talented prospects who aren’t remotely ready for the majors. This creates an environment where selections are made based more on fit and team need than just talent, but teams find solid big-league role players in the Rule 5 every year and occasionally scoop up an eventual star. Let’s dive into the scouting reports on this year’s group.

First Round

1. Baltimore Orioles
Richie Martin, SS (from A’s) – Martin was a 2015 first rounder out of the University of Florida, drafted as an athletic shortstop with some pop who was still raw as a baseball player. Martin had really struggled to hit in pro ball until 2018, when he repeated Double-A and slashed .300/.368/.439.

He has average raw power but hits the ball on the ground too often to get to any of it in games. Houston has been adept at altering their players’ swings, so perhaps the new Orioles regime can coax more in-game pop from Martin, who is a perfectly fine defensive shortstop. He should compete with incumbent Orioles Breyvic Valera and Jonathan Villar, as well as fellow Rule 5 acquisition Drew Jackson, for middle infield playing time. But unless there’s a significant swing change here, Martin really only projects as a middle infield utility man.

2. Kansas City Royals
Sam McWilliams, RHP (from Rays) – McWilliams was an overslot eighth rounder in 2014 and was traded from Philadelphia to Arizona for Jeremy Hellickson in the fall of 2015. He was then sent from Arizona to Tampa Bay as one of the players to be named later in the three-team trade that sent Steven Souza to Arizona. McWilliams is pretty raw for a 23-year-old. He spent two years in the Midwest League and posted a 5.02 ERA at Double-A when the Rays pushed him there after the trade.

He has a big fastball, sitting mostly 93-94 but topping out at 97. He’ll flash an occasional plus slider but it’s a rather inconsistent pitch. The industry thought McWilliams had a chance to grow into a backend rotation arm because his stuff is quite good, but he has a much better chance of sticking as a reliever right now.

3. Chicago White Sox (Traded to Rangers)
Jordan Romano, RHP (from Blue Jays) – Romano is a 25-year-old righty who spent 2018 at Double-A. He’s a strike-throwing righty with a fastball in the 91-93 range and he has an average slider and changeup, both of which reside in the 80-84 range. His command is advanced enough that both of his secondaries play up a little bit. He likely profiles as a fifth starter or rotation depth, but the Rangers current pitching situation is quite precarious and Romano may just end up sticking around to eat innings with the hope that he sticks as a backend starter or swingman when they’re competitive once again.

4. Miami Marlins
Riley Ferrell, RHP (from Astros)- Ferrell was a dominant college closer at TCU and was consistently 93-97 with a plus slider there. He continued to pitch well in pro ball until a shoulder aneurysm derailed his 2016 season. Ferrell needed surgery that transplanted a vein from his groin into his shoulder in order to repair it, and the industry worried at the time that the injury threatened his career. His stuff is back and Ferrell is at least a big league ready middle reliever with a chance to be a set-up man.

5. Detroit Tigers
Reed Garrett, RHP (from Rangers)
Garrett’s velo spiked when he moved to the bullpen in 2017 and he now sits in the mid-90s, touches 99 and has two good breaking balls, including a curveball that has a plus-plus spin rate. He also has an average changeup. He’s a fair bet to carve out a bullpen role on a rebuilding Tigers team.

6. San Diego Padres
No Pick (full 40-man)

7. Cincinnati Reds
Connor Joe, 3B (from Dodgers) – The Reds will be Joe’s fourth team in two years as he has been shuttled around from Pittsburgh (which drafted him) to Atlanta (for Sean Rodriguez) to the Dodgers (for cash) during that time. Now 26, Joe spent 2018 split between Double and Triple-A. He’s a swing changer who began lifting the ball more once he joined Los Angeles. Joe is limited on defense to first and third base, and he’s not very good at third. He has seen a little bit of time in the outfield corners and realistically projects as a four-corners bench bat who provides patience and newfound in-game pop.

8. Texas Rangers (Traded to Royals)
Chris Ellis, RHP (from Cardinals)- Ellis, 26, spent 2018 split between Double and Triple-A. One could argue he has simply been lost amid St. Louis’ surfeit of upper-level pitching but his stuff — a low-90s sinker up to 94 and an average slider — did not compel us to include him in our Cardinals farm system write up. The Royals took Brad Keller, who has a similar kind of repertoire but better pure stuff, and got more out of him than I anticipated, so perhaps that will happen with Ellis.

9. San Francisco Giants
Travis Bergen, LHP (from Blue Jays)- Bergen looked like a lefty specialist in college but the Blue Jays have normalized the way he strides toward home, and his delivery has become more platoon-neutral in pro ball. He has a fringy, low-90s fastball but has two good secondaries in his upper-70s curveball and tumbling mid-80s change. So long as he pitches heavily off of those two offerings, he could lock down a bullpen role.

10. Toronto Blue Jays
Elvis Luciano, RHP (from Royals)- Luciano turns 19 in February and was the youngest player selected in the Rule 5 by a pretty wide margin. He was acquired by Kansas City in the trade that sent Jon Jay to Arizona. Though he’ll touch 96, Luciano’s fastball sits in the 90-94 range and he has scattershot command of it, especially late in starts. His frame is less projectable than the typical teenager so there may not be much more velo coming as he ages, but he has arm strength and an above-average breaking ball, so there’s a chance he makes the Jays roster in a relief role. He has no. 4 starter upside if his below-average changeup and command progress. If he makes the opening day roster, he’ll be the first player born in the 2000s to play in the big leagues.

11. New York Mets
Kyle Dowdy, RHP (from Indians)
Dowdy’s nomadic college career took him from Hawaii to Orange Coast College and finally to Houston, where he redshirted for a year due to injury. He was drafted by Detroit and then included as a throw-in in the Leonys Martin trade to Cleveland. He’s a reliever with a four-pitch mix headlined by an above-average curveball that pairs pretty well with a fastball that lives in the top part of the strike zone but doesn’t really spin. He also has a mid-80s slider and changeup that are fringy and exist to give hitters a little different look. He could stick in the Mets bullpen.

12. Minnesota Twins
No Pick (full 40-man)

13. Philadelphia Phillies (Traded to Orioles)
Drew Jackson, SS (from Dodgers)- Jackson is a plus runner with a plus-plus arm and average defensive hands and actions at shortstop. He’s not a great hitter but the Dodgers were at least able to cleanse Jackson of the Stanford swing and incorporate more lift into his cut. He had a 55% ground ball rate with Seattle in 2016 but that mark was 40% with Los Angeles last year. He also started seeing reps in center field last season. He projects as a multi-positional utility man.

14. Los Angeles Angels
No Pick (team passed)

15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Nick Green, RHP (from Yankees)- Green has the highest present ranking on The Board as a 45 FV, and we think he’s a near-ready backend starter. Arizona lacks pitching depth, so Green has a pretty solid chance to make the club out of spring training. He induces a lot of ground balls (65% GB% in 2018) with a low-90s sinker and also has a plus curveball.

16. Washington Nationals
No Pick (team passed)

17. Pittsburgh Pirates
No Pick (team passed)

18. St. Louis Cardinals
No Pick (full 40-man)

19. Seattle Mariners
Brandon Brennan, RHP (from Rockies)- Brennan is a 27-year-old reliever with a mid-90s sinker that will touch 97. He has an average slider that relies heavily on it’s velocity more than movement to be effective. The real bat-misser here is the changeup, which has more than 10 mph of separation from Brennan’s fastball and dying fade.

20. Atlanta Braves
No Pick (team passed)

21. Tampa Bay Rays
No Pick (full 40-man)

22. Colorado Rockies
No Pick (team passed)

23. Cleveland Indians
No Pick (team passed)

24. Los Angeles Dodgers
No Pick (full 40-man)

25. Chicago Cubs
No Pick (team passed)

26. Milwaukee Brewers
No Pick (team passed)

27. Oakland Athletics
No Pick (team passed)

28. New York Yankees
No Pick (full 40-man)

29. Houston Astros
No Pick (team passed)

30. Boston Red Sox
No Pick (team passed)

Second Round

San Francisco Giants
Drew Ferguson, OF- Ferguson is a hitterish tweener outfielder with a good combination of bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He has a very short, compact stroke that enables him to punch lines drives to his pull side and he’s tough to beat with velocity. Ferguson doesn’t really run well enough to play center field and lacks the power for a corner, so his likely ceiling is that of a bench outfielder.


JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Gary Sheffield

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2015 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Wherever Gary Sheffield went, he made noise, both with his bat and his voice. For the better part of two decades, he ranked among the game’s most dangerous hitters, a slugger with a keen batting eye and a penchant for contact that belied his quick, violent swing. For even longer than that, he was one of the game’s most outspoken players, unafraid to speak up when he felt he was being wronged and unwilling to endure a situation that wasn’t to his liking. He was a polarizing player, and hardly one for the faint of heart.

At the plate, Sheffield was viscerally impressive like few others. With his bat twitching back and forth like the tail of a tiger waiting to pounce, he was pure menace in the batter’s box. He won a batting title, launched over 500 home runs — 14 seasons with at least 20 and eight with at least 30 — and put many a third base coach in peril with some of the most terrifying foul balls anyone has ever seen. For as violent as his swing may have been, it was hardly wild; not until his late thirties did he strike out more than 80 times in a season, and in his prime, he walked far more often than he struck out.

Off the field, Bill James once referred to Sheffield as “an urban legend in his own mind.” Sheffield found controversy before he ever reached the majors through his connection to his uncle, Dwight Gooden. He was drafted and developed by the Brewers, who had no idea how to handle such a volatile player and wound up doing far more harm than good. Small wonder then that from the time he was sent down midway through his rookie season after being accused of faking an injury, he was mistrustful of team management and wanted out. And when he wanted out — of Milwaukee, Los Angeles, or New York — he let you know it, and if a bridge had to burn, so be it; it was Festivus every day for Sheffield, who was always willing to air his grievances.

Later in his career, Sheffield became entangled in the BALCO performance enhancing drug scandal through his relationship with Barry Bonds — a relationship that by all accounts crumbled before he found himself in even deeper water. For all of the drama that surrounded Sheffield, and for all of his rage and outrageousness, he never burned out the way his uncle did, nor did he have trouble finding work.

Even in the context of the high-scoring era in which he played, Sheffield’s offensive numbers look to be Hall of Fame caliber, but voters have found plenty of reasons to overlook him, whether it’s his tangential connection to PEDs, his gift for finding controversy, his poor defensive metrics, or the crowd on the ballot. In his 2015 debut, he received just 11.7% of the vote, and in three years since, he’s actually lost a bit of ground, getting 11.1% in 2018. At this point, he’s more likely to fall off the ballot before his eligibility window expires than he is to reach 75% — a fate that, I must admit, surprises me.

2019 BBWAA Candidate: Gary Sheffield
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Gary Sheffield 60.5 38.0 49.3
Avg. HOF RF 72.7 42.9 57.8
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
2,689 509 .292/.393/.514 140
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Brewers Data Engineer and Baseball R&D Intern

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Data Engineer

Overview
The Data Engineer will work closely with the Data Architect and the Baseball Systems team to maintain, enhance, and extend the Brewers data pipelines. You will be responsible for collecting and transforming data from various sources as well as preparing and distributing data for consumption by the department’s systems and analysts. The ideal candidate is an experienced data pipeline builder who excels at automating and optimizing data systems, with a strong preference for cloud experience.

Responsibilities
Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Create, maintain and optimize data ETL pipelines
  • Document, troubleshoot, and resolve issues with data processes
  • Collaborate with the development and research teams
  • Extend the Brewers AWS cloud platform initiative
  • Identify, design, and implement internal process improvements
  • Work with stakeholders to utilize data to create innovative solutions to baseball operations problems
  • Prepare data sets for processing and research

Qualifications
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Experience with programming languages such as Python, Java, C#
  • Experience working with relational databases such as SQL Server and PostgreSQL
  • Experience with SQL, including writing and maintaining queries
  • Experience with SDLC, especially Agile or Kanban concepts
  • Experience with source control and issue management, such as JIRA, Bitbucket, Github or similar
  • Familiarity with advanced statistical baseball concepts, including advanced statistics and player evaluation metrics

Preferred skills
The skills listed below will help an individual perform the job, however they are not all required.

  • Experience building visualizations with tools such as D3.js or similar
  • Experience with data analysis tools including Tableau, Chartio or similar
  • Experience with cloud services including AWS, Azure, Google Cloud or similar
  • Experience with DevOps concepts such as Continuous Integration and Continuous Deployment, using TeamCity, Jenkins or similar
  • Experience with job orchestration tools such as Airflow, Luigi, Hangfire or similar
  • Experience with Docker or other containerization technologies
  • Familiarity with Linux and non-Windows operating systems

Education and/or Experience
Bachelor’s degree (B. A.) in Computer Science, Information Systems, or related field from four-year college or university; and one to three years related experience and/or training; or equivalent combination of education and experience.

Other Skills and Abilities
Capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends when necessary.

Language Skills
Ability to read and comprehend simple instructions, short correspondence, and memos. Ability to effectively present information in one-on-one and small group situations to department members and non-technical baseball operations staff.

Mathematical Skills
Ability to add, subtract, multiply, and divide in all units of measure, using whole numbers, common fractions, and decimals. Ability to compute rate, ratio, and percent and to draw and interpret bar graphs.

Reasoning Ability
Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts, and draw valid conclusions. Ability to apply common sense understanding to carry out detailed but uninvolved written or oral instructions. Ability to deal with problems involving a few concrete variables in standardized situations.

Work Hours
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

To Apply
To apply, please visit this site to complete an application.

Position: Intern, Baseball Research and Development

Summary
The Milwaukee Brewers are currently seeking an Intern in the Baseball Research and Development Department. The Intern will work with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems departments and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter, and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following.
Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs.
  • Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
  • Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.
  • Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in Baseball Research to apply cutting edge methods and data to problems.
  • Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements.
  • Ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects during the year.

Qualifications
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Understanding of basic statistical modeling techniques, including, but not limited to, linear regression, logistic regressions, machine learning, etc.
  • Proficiency with an analytical software platform required (for example R or Mathematica).
  • Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required.
  • Proficiency with data scripting language or ETL environment (Python, PERL, SSIS, etc.) desired.

Education and/or Experience
Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.

Computer Skills
To perform the job successfully, an individual should have knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.

Language Skills
Ability to read, analyze, and interpret general business periodicals, professional journals, technical procedures, or governmental regulations. Ability to write reports, business correspondence, and procedure manuals. Ability to effectively present information and respond to questions from groups of managers, clients, customers, and the general public.

Mathematical Skills
Ability to apply advanced mathematical concepts such as exponents, logarithms, quadratic equations, and permutations. Ability to apply mathematical operations to such tasks as frequency distribution, determination of test reliability and validity, analysis of variance, correlation techniques, sampling theory, and factor analysis.

Reasoning Ability
Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts, and draw valid conclusions. Ability to interpret an extensive variety of technical instructions in mathematical or diagram form and deal with several abstract and concrete variables.

Work Hours
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

To Apply
To apply, please visit this site to complete an application.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Brewers.


Top 32 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Milwaukee Brewers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Brewers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Keston Hiura 22.4 AA 2B 2019 60
2 Tristen Lutz 20.4 A RF 2022 50
3 Corey Ray 24.3 AA CF 2019 50
4 Brice Turang 19.1 R SS 2022 45
5 Mauricio Dubon 24.5 AAA SS 2019 45
6 Zack Brown 24.1 AA RHP 2019 45
7 Mario Feliciano 20.1 A+ C 2022 40+
8 Eduardo Garcia 16.0 None SS 2024 40
9 Aaron Ashby 20.6 A LHP 2022 40
10 Joe Gray 18.8 R CF 2023 40
11 Payton Henry 21.5 A C 2022 40
12 Troy Stokes Jr. 22.9 AA LF 2019 40
13 Braden Webb 23.7 AA RHP 2020 40
14 Trent Grisham 22.2 AA OF 2020 40
15 Lucas Erceg 23.7 AAA 3B 2020 40
16 Pablo Abreu 19.2 R OF 2023 40
17 Trey Supak 22.6 AA RHP 2019 40
18 Marcos Diplan 22.3 AA RHP 2019 40
19 Bobby Wahl 26.8 MLB RHP 2019 40
20 Carlos Rodriguez 18.1 R CF 2022 40
21 Micah Bello 18.5 R CF 2022 40
22 Larry Ernesto 18.3 R RF 2024 40
23 Adam Hill 21.8 A- RHP 2021 40
24 Korry Howell 20.3 R CF 2022 40
25 Clayton Andrews 22.0 A LHP 2021 40
26 Lun Zhao 17.4 R RHP 2024 40
27 Tyrone Taylor 25.0 AAA OF 2019 40
28 Adrian Houser 25.9 MLB RHP 2019 40
29 Eduarqui Fernandez 16.6 None CF 2023 35+
30 Antonio Pinero 19.8 R SS 2022 35+
31 Yeison Coca 19.6 R 2B 2022 35+
32 Daniel Castillo 17.9 R SS 2024 35+
33 Je’Von Ward 19.2 R RF 2023 35+
34 Caden Lemons 20.1 R RHP 2022 35+

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from UC Irvine (MIL)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 60/60 45/60 45/45 45/50 45/45

Hiura reached Double-A in his first full pro season, and then was clearly one of the top five or six talents in the Arizona Fall League, where he won League MVP. Most importanly, his arm strength is once again viable at second base. An elbow injury relegated Hiura to DH-only duty as a junior at UC Irvine, and he may have gone even earlier in the 2017 draft if not for concerns about the injury and how it might limit his defense. That’s no longer a concern, as Hiura has an average arm and plays an unspectacular second base. This is an incredible hitter. He has lightning-quick hands that square up premium velocity and possesses a rare blend of power and bat control. Hiura’s footowork in the box is a little noiser than it has to be, and if any of his swing’s elements are ill-timed, it can throw off the rest of his cut. This, combined with an aggressive style of hitting, could cause him to be streaky. But ultimately he’s an exceptional hitting talent and he’s going to play a premium defensive position. We think he’s an All-Star second baseman.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Martin HS (TX) (MIL)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 70/70 40/60 50/45 40/45 60/60

Lutz’s 2018 foray into full-season ball (.272/.348/.477 in May, June and July) was bookended by two awful months (he hit .180 in April, .215 in August) resulting in a .245/.321/.421 line. Already at physical maturity, Lutz’s huge power is the foundation of his profile. He’s capable of hitting long home runs to left and center, and he has the raw strength to drive out mis-hit balls the opposite way. Everything else he does is average. Adept at identifying breaking balls in mid air, Lutz’s moderate swing-and-miss issues stem from his mediocre bat control. This might limit his game power output, but the issues aren’t so bad that we’re worried about Lutz not hitting entirely. He has below-average range and instincts in right field, but his arm is plus. Lutz will likely start next season, age-20, at Hi-A. He projects as a middle-of-the-order power bat who provides little value on defense.

3. Corey Ray, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Louisville (MIL)
Age 24.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 45/50 70/70 40/45 40/40

Despite his notable 2018 statistical output — 66 extra base hits, including 27 home runs, and 37 steals on 44 attempts at Double-A Biloxi — we’re still somewhat apprehensive about Ray and have him graded out exactly as we did last offseason, when he was coming off a terrible statistical campaign. Ray, long lauded for his makeup, made some adjustments to remedy the timing issues that plagued him in 2017. His front hip is clearing earlier, enabling him to catch some of the inside pitches that were tying him up last year. This has seemed to improve the quality of Ray’s contact, but it hasn’t remedied his strikeout issues. Ray struck out in 29.3% of his 2018 plate appearances and had a 17.5% swinging strike rate, the latter of which would rank as the 15th most frequent SwStr% in the majors last year. Ray swings through pitches in the zone fairly frequently and despite his prodigious physical abilities, his offensive profile feels unstable. His up-the-middle defensive profile gives him some wiggle room on offense, but he’s not a very instinctive defender and is closer to average in center field than one might expect given his speed. Players can succeed despite heavy strikeouts; Chris Taylor’s skillset looks an awful lot like Ray’s (power, strikeouts, and a pedestrian defense at a premium position) and Taylor was a 3 WAR player last year. Ray’s peak could look like that. He’s also similar to players like Franchy Cordero, Brad Zimmer, late-career Colby Rasmus, and an even longer list of hitters who also have lean years when they don’t hit and produce closer to replacement level. We expect peaks and valleys over the course of a long career from Ray.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Santiago HS (CA) (MIL)
Age 19.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/50 20/45 60/60 50/60 55/55

Even as an underclassman playing alongside rising seniors like Nick Allen, Hunter Greene, Nick Pratto and Royce Lewis, Turang did not look out of place. In addition to his a balletic defensive abilities, he was also a polished hitter who had advanced strike-zone feel. Turang struck out just once as a high scool junior and entered his final showcase summer at the top of his high school draft class. Then, he stopped hitting. After looking sluggish during the summer and fall, Turang’s placement among the first round candidates changed. He fell to the back half of the first round and signed for $3.4 million, roughly $400,000 over slot. After signing, Turang looked so much more advanced than the rest of the AZL that he was pushed, after just two weeks, to the Pioneer League. Throughout the summer and fall, he ran deep counts and walked a lot, but made little impact contact. He’s shown average raw power in BP, so perhaps he’ll eventually have the developmental option of sacrificing contact to get to it. As long as some aspect of his offense develops, especially as it seems likely to be paired with a great idea of the strike zone and plus shortstop defense, Turang should be an above-average regular.

Drafted: 26th Round, 2013 from Capital Christian HS (CA) (BOS)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/60 40/40 30/35 55/55 45/50 55/55

If not for suffering a left ACL tear during a rundown in early May, Dubon, who had a 23-game hit streak at the time, probably would have debuted in 2018 due to Milwaukee’s middle infield woes. Instead, Dubson missed much of the season and is on track for a likely 2019 debut. He’ll be the first native Honduran to play in the majors. Dubon was acquired (along with Travis Shaw) as part of a lopsided package for Tyler Thornburg. His elite hand-eye coordination and bat control drive a contact-oriented offensive profile. Since coming over from Boston, Dubon has thickened his once frail-looking frame and improved upon some of the things that limited his in-game power. He was rotating better early in 2018, with the timing of his hip/hand spearation being better, too, and he was no longer ditching his leg kick with two strikes. His 2016 Portland and 2017-2018 Colorado Springs slugging outputs are probably cariacatures of his true talent level, but Dubon should at least have doubles power. Defensively, Dubon is passable at shortstop and second base. He saw time in center field during the 2016 Fall League but hasn’t played there since. Lots of scouts like him as a super utility type, but Dubon will be 25 in July and he hasn’t played anywhere other than the middle infield at any point in his career, save for that Fall League. It’s more likely he gets a chance to be Milwaukee’s everyday shortstop in 2019 and, provided he hasn’t lost a step due to the ACL tear, we like him as a low-end regular there.

6. Zack Brown, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Kentucky (MIL)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 45/50 91-94 / 95

The Brewers 2018 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Brown has now performed at every level up through Double-A. Trepidation regarding his ability to start stems from Brown’s wonky, violent delivery. But he’s never had issues filling up the strike zone, has a pitch mix sufficient for navigating lineups several times, and hasn’t had an arm injury, with his lone pro DL stint was due to an ankle injury caused by a comebacker. He’s likely on a path similar to Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, where he’ll initially debut as a multi-inning reliever, but a fine three-pitch mix means Brown could eventually transition into a starting role, profiling as a #4/5.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Beltran Academy HS (PR) (MIL)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 50/55 30/45 40/30 30/45 55/55

Feliciano had a totally lost 2018 due to various nagging injuries. He was limited to just 42 games at Hi-A, and two in the Fall League. While at Hi-A Carolina, he struck out in 36% of his plate appearances. Feliciano also has one of the higher ceilings in this system. He turned 20 shortly before this list went to press, so his inabiltiy to perform as an 18-year-old in full-season ball in 2017 and a 19-year-old at Hi-A in 2018 is less troublesome due to his age. When healthy, Feliciano has shown bat control and above-average power on contact. If he can develop defensively (a process which has, thus far, been slow due to the reps lost to injury), Feliciano will be a catcher with a complete offensive profile, and a potential star. Teenage catching prospects are notoriously volatile and often, a decline in physical tools and/or stagnant defensive development starts with chronic injury. Feliciano’s 2018 is what the start of past catching bust narravites look like. This is a very talented, volatile prospect who could be at or near the top of this list next year or be off it in two.

40 FV Prospects

8. Eduardo Garcia, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age 16.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 30/50 20/50 45/50 40/60 50/60

Signed for $1.1 million in mid-July, Garcia had an eye-opening instructional league. His range, hands, actions and arm are all easy fits at shortstop, and he could be a plus glove there at peak. His entire offensive profile depends on his frame filling out. Garcia’s lack of strength is evident with the bat in his hands, but you can go kind of nuts projecting on much of his skillset, including the speed and arm strength, because Garcia so clearly has lots of physical growth on the horizon and is an above-average athlete. He’s so young that he wasn’t even eligible to sign on July 2nd because he was still 15. Were he a domestic high schooler, he wouldn’t be draft eligible until 2020, when he’d be just shy of 18. His development may initially be slow, but he has significant literal and figurative growth potential and a non-zero shot to be a well-rounded shortstop at peak.

9. Aaron Ashby, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Crowder JC (MO) (MIL)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 55/60 45/50 40/50 90-94 / 95

It became clear during instructional league in Arizona that we were low on Ashby before the draft. Despite his clear issues– he has below average command caused by an arm slot that makes it hard for him to work in all parts of the zone–Ashby has nasty, left-handed stuff. He was up to 94 this fall, and the pitch has flat plane and lives in the top part of the zone, where it sneaks past barrels. Ashby’s two breaking balls need better demarcation, but they each flash plus and his changeup flashes average. He turns 21 in May, and should carve up the lower levels of the minor leagues with his stuff alone. His ability to locate and effectively mix his pitches will dictate his ultimate role and how fast he moves. For now, Ashby fairly conservatively projects in a multi-inning relief role.

10. Joe Gray, CF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Hattiesburg HS (MS) (MIL)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 50/60 30/50 55/50 45/50 60/60

On the surface, Gray looks like a pretty standard right field prospect. He’s a projetable 6-foot-3, has present power and might grow into more, and he has some swing and miss issues due to poor breaking ball recognition. But upon extended viewing, Gray’s feel for center field is advanced and he has a better chance to stay there than is typical for a prospect his size. Gray has had strikeout issues in the AZL (he missed AZL time with a respiratory issue, not an injury), during fall instructional league and against good high school pitching. We’re skeptical of his ability to make sufficient contact but if he does, he’ll be a power-hitting center fielder.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Pleasant Grove HS (UT) (MIL)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 20/45 30/30 40/50 55/55

A bat-first high school catcher who was considered a long shot to stay behind the plate, Henry has made sufficient developmental progress as a defender and now projects to stay back there. Always in possession of a strong throwing arm, his once thick frame is now learner and more agile, enabling him to better handle the athletic burdens of catching. He also has huge raw power that he doesn’t often get to in games because Henry’s bat path causes him to drive the ball into the ground at a 50% clip and he’s also prone to swing and miss. Now that Henry’s defensive future is more in focus, he may just be a swing tweak away from a statistical breakout.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Calvert Hall HS (MD) (MIL)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 182 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 55/55 45/50 55/55 50/55 30/30

Stokes is Diet Khris Davis. He’s limited to LF/DH duties because of nearly unplayable arm strength, and he’s able to hit for in-game power despite blatant swing-and-miss issues due to his ability to consistently hit the ball in the air. Stokes’ extreme, pull-only approach to contact makes him vulnerable to breaking stuff down and away from him, and he is going to swing and miss at an above-average clip. But he’s also adept at identifying balls and strikes. There is some precedent for this type of offensive profile (low batting average, above-average OBP, and power) working in left field. It looks like Kyle Schwarber–though Stokes doesn’t have that kind of raw pop–or late-career Curtis Granderson. Stokes runs well enough that he could be an above-average defender in left field but he might also give back significant value there becauase of his throwing issues. He’s an odd one who we think fits as the smaller half of a corner outfield platoon and pinch runner.

13. Braden Webb, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from South Carolina (MIL)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 50/55 40/45 92-95 / 98

Webb was a rare, draft-eligible freshman because he had Tommy John as a senior in high school, then missed all of what would have been his freshman year at South Carolina while he recovered. He was a 21-year-old redshirt freshman when he was drafted in 2016. Webb’s measurables don’t properly capture his size; his broad shoulders mimic the shape and proportions of a generic minor league batter’s eye. He has a mid-90s fastball and upper-70s curveball that pair well together, as the latter has sharp, vertical action and bat-missing depth. Webb continued to log innings as a starter up through Double-A, but he likely projects in relief. His changeup has improved and he was healthy throughout 2018, though his fastball control remains below-average. But the stuff is nasty enough that Webb could be a high-leverage or multi-inning reliever, especially if his fastball ticks up in a single, max-effort inning.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Richland HS (TX) (MIL)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 30/40 50/50 45/50 45/45

The amateur side of scouting considered Grisham to be perhaps the most advanced high school hitter in the 2015 draft. Cut to 2018 and Grisham is a career .238 hitter. The low batting averages he has posted have been due less to his inability to put the bat on the ball and more to an approach that is passive in excess. Grisham watches a lot of driveable pitches go by. That approach is also part of why he’s never run a season walk rate beneath 14%, and Grisham’s ability to reach base is part of why he’s still such an interesting prospect. There has also been an approach change here, one that may have impacted his plate coverage. In two years, he has transitioned from an all-fields doubles doubles approach to a pull-oriented hitter. In the 2018 Fall League he was fouling off pitches that he used to slice for doubles the opposite way. Still only 22, Grisham has physical talent (he once projected, for us, as an average regular) that may resurface with some approach changes, but this current iteration probably isn’t a big leaguer.

15. Lucas Erceg, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Menlo College (MIL)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/55 40/45 50/45 45/50 70/70

After initially looking like he was an egregious underdraft immediatley following his 2016 matriculation from Menlo, Erceg has been frustrating and enigmatic. The only constant has been his 70-grade arm. He’s nearly 24 now and some of our sources, no longer enamored with his bat, are ready to see him on the mound. (Erceg pitched in college at Cal and then, after he transferred, closed at Menlo.) When Erceg is going at the plate, he’s dropping the bat head and golfing out pitches down and in, or flaying pitches away from him down the third base line for a double. But as his career has drawn on, his swing is often ill-timed and its components don’t seem to be cohesive. He’s also not extending through contact as dramatically as he was in college. Whatever the reasons for Erceg’s struggles, he has hit. He has made progress as an infield defender, but he has to hit some to profile. He’ll be 24 in May.

16. Pablo Abreu, OF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIL)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/55 30/50 55/50 45/50 55/55

Abreu’s combination of instincts and speed give him a fair chance to stay in center field, but he’s not a lock to remain there. He has above-average bat speed but his ultra-conservative lower half usage hampers his in-game power production. He might suddenly start hitting for more game power with a small change in that regard. Though just 19, Abreu has already added a lot of good weight since signing. His frame already looks maxed out, so there’s not a whole lot of raw power projection left here, and if there is, it’ll come at the cost of Abreu moving to an outfield corner.

17. Trey Supak, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from La Grange HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 50/55 45/50 50/55 89-93 / 94

Supak owns a career 3.43 ERA and has now reached Double-A. He has an average four-pitch mix that works because he has above-average command, and because his fastball, which lives in the top part of the zone, has flat, tough-to-catch plane. When Supak misses his spot it’s often in a place where he can’t get hurt, essential because neither of his breaking balls–a relatively new curveball and a slider/cutter that we have labeled as a cutter, since we think it’s best suited for use like a cutter–is nasty enough to live in the strike zone and instead are best when buried beneath it, or garnering awkward swings at floaters above the zone. He’s a near-ready back-end starter.

18. Marcos Diplan, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 55/60 40/45 89-93 / 97

Diplan’s body and control have each backpeddaled since his electric 2016 season. His fastball velocity is also less consistent now than it was at that time; he’ll bump 97 at times but sit 89-93 at others. He walked a whopping 74 hitters in 118 innings last year, but still has tantalizing stuff. His changeup is plus, his slider flashes plus when he finishes it properly and sometimes, the velo is there. When Diplan is right he looks like a nasty, multi-inning reliever, but the arrow is pointing down.

19. Bobby Wahl, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2013 from Ole Miss (OAK)
Age 26.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 40/40 50/50 40/40 94-96 / 99

Wahl, who turns 27 in March, was part of the two-player package Oakland sent to the Mets for Jeurys Familia last summer. He has just twelve career big league innings at this age mostly because Wahl missed extended development time due to multiple surgeries, including one in 2017 to remedy Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. His stuff was back last year. Wahl’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and will touch 99. He has a four-pitch mix but works primarily with the fastball and a power, mid-80s breaking ball that has bat-missing vertical action. A firm cutter and changeup are also folded in on occasion. Wahl has set-up man stuff but below average command and more significant injury risk than most pitching prospects.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age 18.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 30/40 20/20 70/70 45/60 50/50

Rodriguez is a plus-plus-running center field prospect with a slash-and-dash approach at the plate. He is currently unable to turn on pitches and do any real offensive damage, but his defensive profile, speed, and hand-eye coordination make him an interesting follow. Barring a swing change that enables him to turn on more pitches, he projects as a fourth outfielder, but at age 18, there’s lots of time for that adjustment. There’s a pretty rare skillset at the core of Rodriguez’s profile.

21. Micah Bello, CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Hilo HS (HI) (MIL)
Age 18.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/30 50/50 45/55 55/55

Bello signed for an under slot $550,000 as a second rounder. He’s a polished, contact-oriented center field prospect without typical big league physicality. He has several tweener traits, and might end up as a bench or platoon outfielder. A path toward everyday reps involves Bello developing a plus bat or glove, which are both in the realm of possibility as he has great breaking ball recognition and bat control, and good instincts in center field. He is one of several Hawaiian players drafted by Milwaukee since 2014 (Kodi Medeiros, Jordan Yamamoto, KJ Harrison, Kekai Rios).

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (MIL)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/55 20/50 50/50 45/50 50/50

Ernesto got $1.8 million in 2017. His profile hasn’t changed at all since he was written up last year. He’s a switch-hitter with surprising pop for his age and build, but neither swing is dialed in quite yet. He runs well-enough to give center field a try for a while, but will probably move to a corner at physical maturity. He’s a well-rounded physical talent with little present feel to hit.

23. Adam Hill, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from South Carolina (NYM)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/55 40/45 90-94 / 95

The Brewers also acquired Adam Hill, the Mets 2018 4th round pick out of the University of South Carolina. Hill was dominant during the first four starts of his junior year, but his control disappeared once the Gamecocks began conference play. He struggled to throw strikes for two months leading up to the draft and fell to the fourth round. Hill does have good stuff. He’ll sit 90-94 and his big, 6-foot-6 frame and lower arm slot combine to create a unique look for hitters. His slider breaks late and has good length when located to Hill’s arm side, and Hill’s changeup has good action because of his lower arm slot. His limited command probably relegates Hill to the bullpen eventually, but he has #4/5 starter stuff if he can develop better control in his mid-20s, which sometimes happens to pitchers this size.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Kirkwood JC (IA) (MIL)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 40/45 20/30 70/70 40/45 40/45

Howell was a pleasant, toolsy, post-draft surprise whose combination of speed and crude bat control was too much for AZL defenses to deal with. A JUCO draftee would only turned 20 in September, Howell has some catalytic offensive qualities and a chance to play somewhere favorable on defense. He saw time at shortstop and third base during the summer and fall, but Eric and several scouts think he ends up in center field. Physical development will play a sizeable role in Howell’s future, especially as far as his bat is concerned. He will be the age of a college sophomore in 2019.

Drafted: 17th Round, 2018 from Long Beach State (MIL)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 6″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 55/60 55/60 45/50 86-88 / 90

Andrews is weird. He’s just 5-foot-6 and throws in the upper-80s but he has two really excellent secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup. He played two ways at Long Beach State and performed well (54 K’s, 7 BB’s in 33 pro innings) after signing. We don’t know what he is but we think it’s something.

26. Lun Zhao, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from China (MIL)
Age 17.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 55/70 30/45 30/45 90-92 / 93

Zhao is one of very few Chinese players in pro ball–we know of two others: Itchy Xu (BAL) and Hai-Cheng Gong (PIT)–and is the most talented. The 17-year-old broke off some ferocious curveballs during instructional league that elicited verbal expletives from onlooking scouts. His fastball control is very raw. Right now, Zhao is just a very young developmental project who can really spin it.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2012 from Torrance HS (CA) (MIL)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/50 45/45 40/45 55/55 55/55 50/50

Taylor’s performance tapered off in 2014 and he spent several years slugging about .330, then spent much of 2017 injured. He had a statistical breakout at Triple-A in 2018 that could be attributed to the hitting environment at Colorado Springs, but Taylor has made significant changes to his swing and the uptick in power could be a PCL cariacature of real, meaningful change. Once a wide-based, no-stride swinger, Taylor now has a big leg kick and his batted ball profile has changed dramatically between 2016 (the last, reliably large sample we had) and now. He was added to the 40-man this offseason and is a sleeper breakout candidate.

28. Adrian Houser, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2011 from Locust Grove HS (OK) (HOU)
Age 25.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 55/55 45/45 93-96 / 97

Houser finally made it back to the majors in 2018 after missing significant time due to Tommy John. During that time, he remade his body into a lean, more flexible vessel and his velo was up a bit; instead of 92-95, he was sitting at 94-95 last year. His curveball didn’t have good finish during his brief big league time but it has been average and flashing above in the past. His changeup is now clearly his best secondary offering. Houser’s fastball plays down a bit due to lack of movement and it’d be nice to see the breaking ball bounce back, but for now he projects as a middle reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

29. Eduarqui Fernandez, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican (MIL)
Age 16.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

A $1.1 million signe from July, Fernandez is a R/R corner outfield projection bat with present feel to hit. He’s already quite a bit more physical now than he was as an amateur, so the rest of the power might come pretty quickly.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Pinero was originally with Boston but was granted free agency as part of their 2016 international bonus bundling scandal. He’s a plus defensive shortstop–he has elite hands, but his range and athleticism are suspect–with very little bat. Pinero has a lanky frame, but he’s a slow-twitch hitter with below average bat speed and he won’t necessarily grow into offensive impact. His likely range of positive outcoms spans from glove-first bench infielder to low-end regular.

31. Yeison Coca, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 19.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Coca is an average middle infield defender with below-average offensive tools. If those grow to average, he could sneak up on us and be an everyday player. If they continue to hang in the 40/45 area, Coca will be a utility option.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age 17.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Castillo signed for $140,000 in 2017. His swing has a good foundation, he’s an athletic middle infield defender, and his frame has some room for mass as he matures. He had a good fall instructional league showing.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2017 from Gahr HS (CA) (MIL)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Long a notable amateur prospect due to his projectable, wide receiverish frame, Ward has made significant mechanical progress and is already much more of a refined baseball player than he was a senior in high school. He’s still mostly a lottery ticket frame who you’re hoping grows into big power, but now his underlying skills have started to develop.

34. Caden Lemons, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Vestavia Hills HS (AL) (MIL)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lemons was up to 96 in high school, often sitting in the low-90s. He was 90-92 this fall with an average slider that has horizontal wipe during instructs. He’s a big-framed projection arm whose stuff hasn’t ascended yet.

Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.Power-only Bats Low on the Defensive Spectrum
Jacob Nottingham, C
Weston Wilson, 1B/3B/OF
Jake Gatewood, 1B
Chad McClanahan, 1B
Branlyn Jaraba, 3B
David Fry, C/1B
Ernesto Martinez, 1B

Nottingham will turn 24 this offseason. He has plus power but needs to improve behind the plate in order to profile as a power-over-hit backup. Weston Wilson has above-average raw power and can play the corner outfield spots, first base, and some third. He could be a right-handed corner bench bat. Gatewood has plus-plus raw power and has moved from shortstop to third base to first base as a pro. He’s a R/R first baseman with huge power and strikeout issues. Fringe 40-man candidates like that sometimes bloom late, or at least get a shot at some point. McClanahan signed for $1 million as an 11th rounder in 2016. He’s a big-framed projection bat who is already seeing more reps at first than at third. He has premium makeup. Jaraba was a $1 million signee this year. He’s a R/R power bat who looked like a future first baseman this fall. David Fry was the club’s 7th rounder out of Northwestern State. He has above-average power and hasn’t caught all that much, in part because he had TJ in college. Ernesto Martinez is built like a Greek god and has 70 raw power but his swing has not progressed and it’s currently unusable.

The Tommy John Crew
Drew Rasmussen. RHP
Nathan Kirby, LHP
Quintin Torres-Costa, LHP
Nash Walters, RHP
Devin Williams
Josh Pennington, RHP

Rasmussen has had two TJs. He sits 93-96 with average secondary stuff and below average command when healthy. Kirby has had several injury issues and now has a 40 fastball, but his repertoire is deep and he has a 55 curveball. Torres-Costa is a situational lefty who likely would have been in the big leagues in 2018 if not for his injury. Walters was 92-94, touching 95 in the fall and struggled to throw strikes. Devin Williams is 92-93 with a plus curveball. Pennington retired when he needed his second TJ.

One Plus Pitch
Reese Olson, RHP
Justin Jarvis, RHP
Rodrigo Benoit, RHP

Olson signed for $400,000 and was 92-93, touching 94 with a plus curveball in the fall. Benoit has scattershot command of an average fastball and a plus breaking ball. Jarvis has an above-average changeup.

Weird Arm Slots
J.T. Hintzen, RHP
Scott Sunitsch, LHP

Sunitsch no-hit the University of Oregon in April. He’s a low-slot lefty with a good changeup. Hitzen strides way, way open, toward the first base side, and the ball appears to hitters out of where his stomach was when he came set. Both are release-point oddities who have performed so far.

Offseason Addition
Felix Valerio, 2B

Valerio, who turned 18 in December, was acquired as part of the package for Keon Broxton in January. He hit .319/.409/.433 in the DSL during his first pro season and is a skills-over-tools type of prospect who is more polished than most of his peers. He has promising feel for contact and is athletically viable at second base but, at 5-foot-7, 165, he’s less likely to grow into more impressive physical tools than someone with some length and room on their frame. Players like this either hit enough to play second base every day or they don’t, and they end up as org guys. Valerio walked more than he struck out last year, and those types of peripheral indicators are great evidence to support a case that a player will indeed hit that much, but not when we’re talking about DSL stats, so we’re hesitant give significant weight to Valerio’s early-career numbers.

System Overview
This system looks very weak now that several 45 FV or better prospects have either graduated or been traded, and the farm alone doesn’t project a clear picture of the youthful health of this franchise. The focus now shifts to the collective development of the large number of teenagers in the 40 and 35+ FV tiers. Another sizable wave of talent — position players this time — could arrive in Milwaukee in three to five years. The organization’s recent history of hitter development isn’t all that inspiring; most of Milwaukee’s big league position players came from outside the org, and Orlando Arcia hasn’t made the kind of offensive impact that was expected of him as a prospect. Grisham and Erceg have been frustrating and have gone backwards. Things may not bode well for several of the hitters in this system who clearly need improvement in some way to progress like Milwaukee’s pitching has. The Brewers love idiosyncratic pitchers whose stuff plays up because of one weird thing or another, and they’ve had success developing them.