Archive for Cubs

Evaluating the Sustainability of Patrick Wisdom’s Production

As Kris Bryant helps the Giants fend off the Dodgers in the NL West division race, his replacement in Chicago seems like a lock to break his old team’s rookie home run record despite being older than Bryant is right now. Patrick Wisdom, who turned 30 on August 27, has swatted 25 home runs so far this season, coming out of nowhere to produce one of baseball’s most fascinating stat lines.

Prior to this season, Wisdom had just 27 games of big league experience, including two with the Cubs in 2020, who re-signed him to a minor league deal in January. Though he posted “ridiculous” numbers at the team’s alternate training site last season, he seemed more likely to provide bench depth for the big league club than be a regular, only to end up playing 83 games split between first base, third base and left field, take 279 plate appearances, and post a .256/.320/.579 slash line.

There remain questions of sustainability. Wisdom isn’t a true-talent 136 wRC+ player, but he’s certainly more of a viable big league bat than initially thought. ZiPS projected him for an 82 wRC+ before the season, which was much more bullish than Steamer’s 70 wRC+ prediction, but both are still a far cry from the actual numbers so far. As a result, both systems have seen significant improvement in the underlying talent given the sizable sample of good performance: His rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him up to a 104 wRC+, and Steamer has him at 93. Read the rest of this entry »


A Journey Through the History of MLB Mascots

It all began with Mr. Met.

The orb-headed, future enemy of Noah Syndergaard, was the first modern mascot of a major league team to appear live in-game, rather than merely as a drawing or on printed marketing materials. Other teams, like the Brooklyn Dodgers, had employed entertainers who became unofficial mascots for their clubs, but Mr. Met represents the first case of an intentionally designed character becoming an in-person mascot. Mr. Met first debuted in print in 1963; he was heavily featured in the team’s preseason marketing and was portrayed on scorecards and in programs throughout the year. In 1964, he made his first live appearance. He remained a consistent part of the team’s iconography until 1979, when he was removed from use; the character remained on the bench until 1994.

What Mr. Met represented was a modern-era shift for baseball. Fans had traditionally been a more raucous crowd that consisted primarily of adults, and teams at the time were making an effort to appeal more to families. The presence of large, cartoonish characters made ballparks feel like a more welcoming environment for those attending with small children. Mr. Met, who was quickly joined by Mrs. Met, ushered in a new experience, and over the following decades, almost every major league team followed suit, adding their own mascots to entertain game-day fans.

We can give Mr. Met credit for being the first official live mascot of a major league team, but another character set the tone for some of the most popular mascots to follow: the San Diego Chicken. The Chicken is an interesting example of a team representative because the San Diego Padres did not set out to find or create an entertainer for their games. The Chicken, played by Ted Giannoulas, originally did events for KGB-FM Radio. Upon having some success distributing Easter eggs to children, Giannoulas pitched his services to the Padres. At the time, he just wanted a way to get into games for free, but after his 1977 debut, he went on to portray the character for almost 50 years, albeit with a few breaks over the decades. For instance, in 1979, he was fired from the radio station and had to fight for the right to wear the chicken suit, and there were a few other planned absences as well. But those gaps aside, the Chicken was quite popular, even making its way to television, where, alongside Johnny Bench and Tommy Lasorda, it served as the co-host of a popular children’s series called “The Baseball Bunch,” a program aimed at introducing baseball and its players to a younger audience.

The Chicken popularized a certain type of mascot. You can see aspects of it in almost all of the other mascots in the majors. Its big, child-friendly, stuffed animal look became the template from which the next generation of mascots were drawn. That aesthetic is probably best exhibited in the Phillie Phanatic, who debuted in 1978 and is likely the best-known and most recognizable mascot currently in the game.

There’s a simple reason these more child-friendly designs gained popularity — they worked. Some teams had made much earlier attempts at mascots, but they were frankly more horrifying than they were appealing, proving to be disquieting to both adults and children. The Chicago Cubs made efforts as far back as 1908, when they introduced a nameless bear mascot that might remind modern observers more of the finale of Midsommar than a rollicking good time at the ballpark. Unlike Mr. Met, the bear wasn’t a mascot in the traditional sense. The team had no intention of him appearing for the entire season. Indeed, he actually only came to amuse the crowd for a single game. (The polar bear costume was on loan from a local production of “The Top o’ th’ World.”)

The Cubs did win the World Series the season that the terror bear made an appearance, so perhaps they should have kept it around a bit longer. Instead, the team switched to live bear cubs for a time, including the best-known of the group, a cub named Joa (named for Cubs co-owner J. Ogden Armour). Again, we can’t consider these mascots in the same way we think of them now, as they didn’t perform and generally caused more harm than good. Ultimately, though, it wasn’t the moral failing of keeping a live animal on display that forced the Cubs to change their policy on the actual cubs, but rather that the pint-sized bears kept biting people, including the players. Sadly, the cubs who were not sold to the Lincoln Park Zoo met slightly grimmer ends. (The team’s current mascot, Clark, canonically escaped the zoo after hearing enthusiastic hollering coming from Wrigley Field and deciding he desperately needed to see a game in person. Mascot biographies are a wild ride.)

Between the introduction of Mr. Met in the 1960s and the mid-80s establishment of “The Baseball Bunch,” almost every major league club got a mascot of its own. While official mascots have changed somewhat over the decades, they’re still a mainstay for most teams. At present, there are only three major league teams with no official mascot: the Los Angeles Angels, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the New York Yankees. Given that the two Los Angeles-based teams are so close to Disneyland, it’s somewhat surprising that they haven’t embraced a costume-clad ambassador of their own, but they remain firmly mascotless. The Angels do have a rally monkey, but it’s not an official mascot as much as a part of the club’s iconography. Before they moved to Los Angeles, the Dodgers briefly had a mascot named Weary Willie, who we’ll return to a bit later. The Yankees, however, might have one of the best examples of a failed mascot of any major league team.

In 1979, without any advanced warning to fans or even a proper introduction, the Yankees unveiled Dandy. Unlike the Cubs’ first crack at a mascot, Dandy was actually pretty adorable. He had more in common with the round-bodied characters we see now, with a big belly and fur that resembled the iconic Yankee pinstripes. Dandy sported a long, red handlebar mustache, and carried a comically oversized bat. But the mascot’s initial welcome was anything but warm. According to Rick Ford, who wore the Dandy costume that first day, “Nobody had any idea what I was or what I was doing there. They just looked at me like, ‘What the hell is this thing?’”

Dandy had the right pedigree to be a beloved team icon. He was created by Bonnie Erickson and Wayde Harrison, the same masterminds behind the incredibly popular Phanatic, and had the same kind of goofy charm to his appearance. But he never resonated with Yankees fans. No one knew the character’s name and he was never given an official welcome. Erickson later confessed that the duo hadn’t really been given much direction in terms of what the Yankees actually wanted out of a mascot. “We knew they were interested in increasing family attendance, and they thought this was the way to do it. They left the design up to me.” In addition to not giving Erickson and Harrison much guidance in the design process, the Yankees didn’t offer much help to Ford in terms of how to be a mascot. “Nobody at the Yankees gave me any direction. I was just making it up as I went along,” he admitted.

Dandy’s poor conception and botched introduction might have spelled doom on their own, but it was likely the untimely death of Thurman Munson later in 1979 that ultimately brought an end to the mascot. While Erickson was not familiar with the Yankees catcher, there’s no way to dispute that Dandy, with his distinctive mustache, bore a striking resemblance to the beloved player. Following Munson’s passing, Dandy became an even more unwelcome presence. While Ford continued to don the costume for another two seasons, the character was quietly retired by the team by 1981. The Yankees have not attempted a mascot since, and there are few in the current front office who will acknowledge they ever had one.

The Yankees aren’t the only team that would like to bury the memory of a mascot. Earlier, I mentioned Brooklyn Dodgers mascot Weary Willie, who was actually something of an icon during his heyday. Willie, as portrayed by Emmett Kelly, was a sad-faced clown who was meant to be a representation of a Depression-era hobo. He rose to fame during his tenure with Ringling Brothers Circus, but took the 1956 season off from the circus to clown for the Dodgers. While Mr. Met represents the earliest iteration of modern mascots (at least as recognized by MLB), Willie helped set the tone for how mascots engage with a crowd and keep things exciting amidst lulls in the game action. Willie was not considered a mascot by the team but rather in-game entertainment. While we think of those things going hand-in-hand now, it’s a slight distinction that keeps Mr. Met’s status as the first of his kind intact.

During the 1950s, when the Dodgers were still based in Brooklyn and bore the nickname of “dem bums,” it made sense to have a hobo character as a comical foil to entertain fans mid-game. Kelly, who often also joined the team for spring training, moved with them to Los Angeles, but ultimately left after the 1962 season, feeling that the Dodgers new home was simply “too big for one clown.” It’s likely best that Kelly’s tenure ended on his own terms, as it’s hard to imagine that such a character would have been appropriate on-field fodder for much longer.

It’s the Atlanta Braves, though, that might have the worst former mascot in modern baseball history. The team, which still comes under fire for its name, as well as the oft-discussed “Tomahawk Chop” performed by the crowd, once leaned even further into racial stereotypes in the form of their mascot. Today’s fans might be most familiar with Blooper, the club’s current mascot that was introduced in 2018, and those around in the 1970s and early 80s might recall the Bleacher Creature, who roamed the stands from 1977-81. But it’s the memory of Chief Noc-A-Homa that the organization would likely prefer to forget. Chief Noc-A-Homa pre-dated and also outlasted the Bleacher Creature, staying with the team from 1966-85. Notably, the Chief character, who had a tepee set up in the left-field seats, was not in a suit or oversized costume, but was played by a real person dressed as a Native American chief. Chief Noc-A-Homa was primarily portrayed by an actual Native American, with Levi Walker playing the part for over a decade. In 1983, the Braves also briefly added Princess Win-A-Lotta to the rotation, but she only lasted for one season.

Noc-A-Homa didn’t stir up much controversy at the time in the local Atlanta media, though he was mentioned in Russell Means’ 1972 lawsuit against the Cleveland Indians as being equally as problematic as Chief Wahoo. Walker went on the radio during the lawsuit to defend himself as well as the Cleveland organization, and ultimately the Noc-A-Homa character remained in place. After the 1985 season, Walker made it clear that the $60 per game he was making to play the mascot wasn’t enough, and rather than increasing his pay, the club decided to part ways with him, citing missed appearances. (Walker also admitted that he had asked out several female fans while on the job, one of whom turned out to be the daughter of a Braves executive.) The team did not recast the role, and in spite of fans who had grown superstitious about Chief Noc-A-Homa’s presence and a grassroots campaign in 1991 to bring him back during the Braves’ postseason push, the mascot hasn’t returned. With the benefit of hindsight, though, it’s clear why the Braves didn’t want to bring Walker back in 1991 (or at any time since) and why the team hasn’t used the “Screaming Indian” logo since it last appeared on a batting practice cap in 2012, though much like the Chief Wahoo design, MLB retains the right to use the logo. Many professional sports teams are finally responding to pressure from Indigenous groups to change outdated and racist team names, and those that do so seem to want to create distance between their current policies and the choices they made in the past. The Braves have a long way to go in this regard. They have not indicated any long-term plans to adopt a new name, and despite outside pressure, they have not eliminated the “Tomahawk Chop.” The team still dims the lights during opposing pitching changes, which prompts fans to light up their cell phones and participate in the longstanding, and troubling, tradition.

As some mascots have fallen out use, their broader role has continued to evolve over the years. We now find ourselves in a time where professional sports mascots can mean more to a team than just in-game amusement for the kids in attendance. The New York Times recently reported on how the branding for the Rocket City Trash Pandas helped generate $4 million in sales of merchandise featuring team mascot Sproket. Considering that even the most valuable minor league teams earn about $15 million a season in total revenue, earning $4 million in merchandise sales shows the incredible power of having a good mascot.

The value of mascots to clubs may be shifting as time progresses, and we’re seeing some teams achieve moments of pop culture relevance via their performers and branding. The Trash Pandas might not have the same reach outside of their sport as the Philadelphia Fliers do with Gritty, their giant orange monster who has transcended hockey to be his own entity, but the popularity of Sproket helped make the Trash Pandas a success before they’d won a single game. Mascots may primarily be used to appeal to children and get crowds amped up during games, but they can also impact a club’s bottom line.

There have been stumbles along the way, with teams learning from the growing pains of their off-putting or downright scary creations. Sometimes those missteps have led to teams abandoning mascots altogether, as the Yankees have done. Other teams have moved on from mascots with overtly racist overtones, replacing them with characters more in line with the style of the San Diego Chicken, as the Braves have done with Blooper. Mascots can be a charming part of the fan experience, but like all other aspects of baseball history, they are not without their failings, and it’s important to recognize the bad along with the good. And while mascots may be meant to appeal mostly to children, they also bring out the kid in all of us.


Daily Prospect Notes: 8/13/21

These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

A month after the draft, here are some early looks at a few members of the 2021 draft class as they launch their professional careers.

Ryan Cusick, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Augusta Age: 21 Org Rank: 7 FV: 45
Line: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 7 K

Notes
Cusick’s started his professional career with two consecutive 98 mph strikes, setting the tone for what would be an impressive minor league debut. The 24th overall pick of the 2021 draft struck out seven of the nine of the batters he retired, and was one scorching liner off his third baseman’s glove away from perfection over his three innings of work. His success was due largely and unsurprisingly to his fastball, a high-90s offering delivered from a high arm slot (Cusick is an imposing 6-foot-6) that proved too much for the struggling Kannapolis offense.

In addition to the four-seamer, Cusick sprinkled in a few slurvy breaking balls, most of which missed the zone, though some missed bats as well. His arsenal also includes a changeup that he rarely threw during his time at Wake Forest, but which was a major developmental focus during last year’s shutdown; it did not make an appearance in his pro debut. Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 8/9/2021

These are notes on prospects from Brendan Gawlowski. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Justin Steele, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Iowa Age: 26 Org Rank: 37 FV: 40

Notes
After a strong debut out of Chicago’s bullpen this spring, Steele has spent the last month in Triple-A getting stretched out in preparation to join the Cubs rotation. The southpaw dazzled in his 11 big league outings, striking out 37% of the hitters he faced while also generating a 70% groundball rate. Evaluators are split on whether he’s a reliever long-term, and with the Cubs going nowhere fast, this summer provides the team with the perfect opportunity to assess his chops as a starter.

Over his last two outings, he’s registered 13 strikeouts against just two walks in 10 innings of work. It’s a good sign that both his low-to-mid-90s fastball and slider didn’t lose much gas in the transition to the rotation. Watching him, I’m impressed with his ability to locate the slider against opposite handed hitters: he’s good at both back-dooring the pitch for a strike and can also spin one to a hitter’s back foot in search of a whiff. That utility takes a little pressure off the change, which he’s just now working back into his repertoire after not using it at all in the bigs. While the safe bet is that he’s still a reliever long-term, there are enough ingredients here to make this rotation experiment more than a blind shot in the dark. Read the rest of this entry »


When Will the Cubs Roar Again?

Just as the Joey Gallo trade ended an era of Rangers baseball, the Cubs’ flurry of moves at this year’s trade deadline closed the door on Chicago’s championship core. While Kyle Hendricks, Willson Contreras, and Jason Heyward still remain from the 2016 team, the trades of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo send things out with an exclamation point rather than the Texas comma. Five games below .500 and with a much weakened roster, we now project Chicago to finish 74-88; the last time the franchise finished with a worse record was 2014.

In a very real way, the 2010s Cubs did accomplish one very important feat: they won a championship. While I don’t subscribe to the notion that a great run for a team must involve a title, I also have not yet been placed in the role of some brutal autarch who determines how the history books are written. The Cubs won the World Series, and the Rangers did not, and both teams will be remembered differently as a result.

Still, the way it ended leaves a curious dissatisfaction about the Cubs. The dizzying heights of 2016 faded quickly, and the subsequent single NLCS appearance and pair of wild card losses were not the stuff of legend. The sudden turning-off of the cash spigot didn’t help, either; after spending $217 million in free agency after the 2017 season, Chicago has spent a total of $21 million in the offseasons since, or roughly half what the Rays have paid out in that span. (The mid-June 2019 signing of Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43 million contract is one of the lone splurges.) In the end, the farm system and those low-key signings couldn’t make up for the attrition elsewhere, and the Cubs’ domination of the NL Central was a brief affair.

Before last winter, team president Jed Hoyer talked about the Cubs going into a retooling phase rather than a full teardown, which left me skeptical. But Chicago still has some advantages that suggest a return to playoff relevance might not be that far away.

Read the rest of this entry »


How Losing Teams Will Use the Last Two Months of the Season

The trade deadline has come and gone, and teams are approaching the two-thirds mark of the season. With the elimination of August waiver season, clubs have little room to adjust from here. Other than the smallest of moves involving minor leaguers or unaffiliated players, rosters are what they are, and evaluators have already moved on to preparing for the offseason free agent class. In some ways, it’s a frustrating time for playoff contenders, as one can feel a bit helpless; all you can do from here on out is watch what happens. For teams clearly out of the playoff race, August and September have a different dynamic, with clubs using their last 60 games to learn about their young players. There is no greater jump in baseball than from Triple-A to the big leagues. The players are exponentially better, and there are prospects who thrive (or shrink) in ballparks with third decks, bright lights, and an army of TV cameras. In terms of the 2021 season, the teams listed below are playing out the string. But they’re also using this time to figure out which of the players on their roster can be part of their next team to play late-season games that matter.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks had a relatively quiet deadline, but this also wasn’t a team expected to be this bad or loaded with good players on expiring deals. It will be interesting to see if Cooper Hummel, acquired from Milwaukee in the Eduardo Escobar deal, gets some major league at-bats this year. He’s had an outstanding Triple-A campaign, with more walks than strikeouts and a decent amount of power, but he also turns 27 in November, so it’s time to get going. It’s interesting to note that Arizona tried him at third base (it was just his second game at the position as a pro) during his first week in Reno, as most scouts put him firmly in the 1B/LF category. It looks like the D-backs will initially give at-bats to another older minor league slugger in the form of Drew Ellis, with the hope that one of the pair can represent an improvement over Christian Walker, which wouldn’t be asking much. The club also needs more assurances from Pavin Smith and Daulton Varsho, who so far have both looked more like nice bench pieces than everyday players on a contending team. A remarkable 36 players have taken the mound for the Diamondbacks, but the majority of their better pitching prospects are at the lower levels, so all they can really do from here is keep rolling out a variety of Quad-A-type bullpen arms to see if any of them have potential beyond that. Read the rest of this entry »


Ranking the Prospects Traded During the 2021 Deadline

What a ride this year’s deadline was. All told, we had 75 prospects move in the last month. They are ranked below, with brief scouting reports written by me and Kevin Goldstein. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of were analyzed at length on this site. An index of those pieces can be found here, or by clicking the hyperlink in the “Trade” column below. I’ve moved all of the players listed here to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through to see where they rank among their new teammates. Our farm rankings, which now update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up post-deadline.

A couple of quick notes before I get to the rankings. We’ve included a few post-prospect players here (those marked in blue) so you can get an idea of where we value them now as opposed to where we had them at their prospect peak. Those players, as well as the Compensatory pick the Rockies will receive after they extend Trevor Story a qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere, are highlighted below. We had closer to 40 prospects (and 23 Players to be Named Later) traded last year, with the PTBNL number inflated by 2020’s COVID-related transaction rules. The backfields are not well-represented here, with just four prospects who have yet to play in full-season ball. Two of those are currently in the DSL and have no official domestic pro experience, though Alberto Ciprian has played stateside for instructs/extended spring training. Now on to the rankings. Read the rest of this entry »


The Padres Add Speed, Defense and a Solid Bat Against Lefties in Jake Marisnick

The San Diego Padres made big moves in the offseason in an attempt to chase down the Dodgers. They traded Luis Patiño, Blake Hunt, Cole Wilcox and Francisco Mejía to acquire 2018 AL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays. Less than 24 hours later, they traded Zach Davies, Reginald Preciado, Owen Caissie, Ismael Mena, and Yeison Santana to the Cubs for 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish and his personal catcher Victor Caratini. They turned Hudson Head, David Bednar, Omar Cruz, Drake Fellows into Joe Musgrove in a three-way trade with the Mets and Pirates. Earlier this week they kicked off trade deadline season trading Tucupita Marcano, Jack Suwinski and Michell Miliano to the Pirates for All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier. That flurry of deals alone has seen the Padres part with their second, seventh, eighth, 13th, 15th, 21st, 26th, 28th and 52nd ranked prospects, and send their 2020 second and third round draft picks to other teams for major-league ready talent.

When laid out like that, it seems less surprising that the Padres were outgunned when it came to the deadline’s blockbusters, like the “super-ultra-mega-juggernaut deal” that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals to the Dodgers. But the Padres were not done dealing just because they missed out on the starter they craved. With three minutes before the deadline, they made a smaller move, adding center fielder Jake Marisnick from the Cubs. Anderson Espinoza, a 40+ FV prospect who slots in at No. 29 in the Cubs’ system, is headed back to Chicago. Read the rest of this entry »


Mets Finally Strike, Landing Javier Báez and Trevor Williams

The Mets remained on the sidelines during the frenzy of deals that went down on Thursday and early Friday, but they finally made a big move about an hour before the 4 pm ET trade deadline. In a deal with the Cubs, they acquired infielder Javier Báez, righty Trevor Williams, and cash considerations in exchange for center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, the team’s first-round pick in the 2020 amateur draft.

The move addresses a pair of particularly acute needs for the Mets, who placed shortstop Francisco Lindor and ace Jacob deGrom on the Injured List on back-to-back days just after the All-Star break. Lindor left the team’s first game of the second half with a strained oblique, and is now two weeks into a three-to-five-week recovery period, having just returned to baseball activities as of Friday. Báez, a pending free agent, can handle shortstop duties until he gets back, then slide over to second base to form a double play combination that will be must-see TV.

Meanwhile, after deGrom skipped the All-Star Game, he landed on the IL due to a bout of forearm tightness, further exposing the team’s already-depleted rotation. In the 10 games the Mets have played since he went down, they’ve started a pitcher who left his outing and landed on the 60-day IL with a hamstring strain (Robert Stock), a reliever who was the first of six pitchers in an all-bullpen doubleheader game (Aaron Loup), and a starter who was designated for assignment for the second and third times this season the day after getting pummeled (Jerad Eickhoff). A couple hours after the deadline, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported that deGrom is dealing with additional inflammation and is being shut down from throwing for two weeks, with a September return now the best-case scenario. Williams is no deGrom, but he can provide some back-end stability over the next month, and he has a year of club control remaining.

The 28-year-old Báez has rebounded from a dreadful 2020 campaign, during which he hit for just a 57 wRC+ and netted zero WAR; he was vocal about the loss of in-game video to help him make adjustments. His .248/.292/.484 line this year isn’t overly impressive, but he’s shaken off a dreadful June (.157/.231/.373) with a red-hot July (.324/.355/.535), lifting his wRC+ back to 105. Read the rest of this entry »


Craig Kimbrel Rides the Red Line to the South Side

Some moves are made for getting a team to the playoffs or helping them win a fight for the division. But with the largest lead of any first-place team in baseball in a division where all the other teams are either treading water or selling, the White Sox could basically stick their roster on cruise control and maybe casually stop off and grab a sandwich. But even with the advantage that is the AL Central, they did make a trade on Friday, and it’s about one very specific thing: brutally destroying any hopes or dreams of late-inning comebacks for any playoff opponent who is behind in the late innings. By acquiring closer Craig Kimbrel from the Cubs for second baseman Nick Madrigal and pitcher Codi Heuer, they’ve done just that; pairing him with Liam Hendriks and the rest of what’s already a good bullpen is as frightening as any slasher-movie antagonist.

Kimbrel is having his best season in a long time, with a microscopic 0.72 ERA, 1.08 FIP, and 64 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings to go with his lowest walk rate since 2017. Given his poor first two seasons with the Cubs that were full of both command issues and injury setbacks, some may worry about a possible pumpkinification for the 33-year-old righty. I’m not. ZiPS and the other projection systems all saw quite a bit to like even in Kimbrel’s pedigree, enough to consider him at least an adequate reliever coming into 2021. And there’s little whiff of a fluke in this season’s stats; with a rebounding first-strike rate and batters having their least effective contact year ever, ZiPS thinks that his strikeout and walk rates are right in line with how well he’s actually pitched.

Kimbrel is succeeding the way he did in the old days: a blazing fastball and a knuckle-curve located where batters both have trouble keeping the bat on their shoulders and actually hitting it. Unlike a nasty slider where the goal is to make the batter look foolish on a pitch that is a zip code away, Kimbrel’s knuckle-curve needs to be a borderline pitch. When he can’t spot it, it’s ineffective, as it was in 2019 and ’20. This year, he’s got the heat map of olden days.

Does adding Kimbrel give the White Sox the best bullpen in baseball? ZiPS thinks so, and when our depth charts are fully updated, I suspect they’ll show up at the top there as well. That could be the case next season, too, as Kimbrel is not a pure rental for the White Sox unless they want it to be. With a $16 million option and a $1 million buyout for 2022, it’s basically a one-year, $15 million decision. The White Sox certainly have the ability to pay that should they end up happy with this signing.

Read the rest of this entry »