Without a true minor league season on which to fixate, I spent the summer watching and evaluating young big leaguers who, because of the truncated season, will still be eligible for prospect lists at the end of the year. This is the final divisional installment of those thoughts, as well as a general recap. The other divisions can be found here: National League East, NL Central, American League East, Central, and West.

Below is my assessment of the National League West, covering players who have appeared in big league games. The results of these final 2020 changes made to player rankings and evaluations can be found over on the updated Board, though I provide more specific links throughout this post in case readers only care about one team. Read the rest of this entry »

A .441 winning percentage and fourth place in one’s division on the day of the trade deadline aren’t typical characteristics of a buying team, but 2020 is anything but a typical season. Even after a disappointing 15-19 start, the Cincinnati Reds are just 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Considering the number of moves the team had already made in an effort to make this a contending season, that’s a gap the organization thought was worth trying to close with a pair of deals completed just ahead of Monday’s 4:00 pm deadline.

The Reds acquired outfielder Brian Goodwin from the Angels and closer Archie Bradley from the Diamondbacks within just a few minutes of each other on Monday, with the list of total exits and entrances appearing as follows:

• Reds get: RHP Archie Bradley and OF Brian Goodwin
• Diamondbacks get: INF Josh VanMeter and OF Stuart Fairchild
• Angels get: LHP Packy Naughton, and PTBNL or cash

We’ll start with Bradley, as he’s likely to have the biggest impact considering Cincinnati’s relief woes. The Reds’ bullpen has been a far cry from their stellar starting rotation this season, allowing the fourth-worst ERA and fifth-worst FIP in the majors. The unit hasn’t had any trouble striking out batters, leading the majors with 11.9 strikeouts per nine, but it has allowed opponents to rack up walks and homers with similar frequency — only four teams have a higher walk rate in their bullpens than Cincinnati’s, and only the Phillies have a higher home run rate. Read the rest of this entry »

Two years makes a tradition: it’s now a ritual for the Marlins and Diamondbacks to make an intriguing trade leading up to the deadline. Last year it was Zac Gallen for Jazz Chisholm, and this year the Marlins are acquiring Starling Marte:

Caleb Smith, Humberto Mejia and one other from the Marlins to DBacks for Starling Marte, source tells The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 31, 2020

When the Diamondbacks traded for Marte this offseason, they did so for two reasons. First, they wanted to make the playoffs. That one hasn’t gone according to plan; after starting 3-8, they briefly righted the ship at 13-11 but have since gone on a cold streak. They entered today at 14-21 and only a 9.9% chance of reaching the postseason per our playoff odds. Short seasons are tough: a cold spell can upset the best-laid plans.

The Marlins, on the other hand, came into the year as playoff longshots. After a surprising run following their COVID-induced layoff, however, they’re 14-15 and are currently in playoff position. We still don’t like their odds — we give them a 22.7% chance of holding onto a spot — but that’s the best shot at playing October baseball they’ve had in years, and Marte will help immediately.

But that’s not the only reason the Diamondbacks traded for Marte. He still has a club option for one more year at $10.5 million (it’s $12.5 million but with a $2 million buyout) after signing an extension with the Pirates. That made him more than a one-year rental; two years of above-average center field play for reasonable rates is an enticing package.
Read the rest of this entry »

Until a few hours ago, the Cubs had been relying on the grace of Kyle Ryan as their sole bullpen left-hander. Lo, that is no longer the case: Per reports from Jon Heyman, the Cubs have acquired Andrew Chafin from the Diamondbacks for a PTBNL or cash considerations, and Josh Osich from the Red Sox for a PTBNL.

Chafin has been a consistently useful pitcher over the course of his career, accruing 4.0 WAR over six seasons prior to this one. Though he sports an ugly 8.10 ERA in 2020, his more reasonable 3.88 FIP suggests that there has been some amount of bad luck affecting him over his very small sample of work — he has, after all, only thrown 6 2/3 innings so far this season. Though he’s walked more batters than is usual for him, his 30.3% strikeout rate is consistent with his career numbers. The same is true of the velocities on his three pitches. And aside from a disastrous appearance on July 29, when he failed to record an out and allowed three runs on a homer and a double, Chafin really hasn’t been all that bad.

Chafin has been on the Injured List since August 19 with a left finger sprain. According to Heyman, the D-backs will pay Chafin’s salary down to the minimum, hoping for a “low-level prospect” to come back to Arizona should Chafin make a quick return from his injury, which is clearly what the Cubs expect. When Chafin does come back, he should certainly be an improvement over Ryan. Read the rest of this entry »

Robbie Ray had often been mentioned in hot stove rumors. As the Diamondbacks have toed the line between buying and selling, adding and subtracting, Ray was someone whose name you’d hear in connection to possible trades to contending teams looking for rotation help. He always stayed put though, even as his service clock ticked away and his electric arm never quite broke out the way he or his team hoped.

With just hours to spare before Monday’s trade deadline, Ray was finally traded. The Toronto Blue Jays made him the second starting pitcher they’d acquired in as many days, sending Travis Bergen to Arizona to complete the deal. To put it mildly, the circumstances of Ray’s exit from the Diamondbacks are not what the team hoped for. Though it was always unlikely Arizona would challenge the Dodgers for the division, they had still hoped to contend for a wild card spot. Instead, they entered Monday holding a record of 14-21, last place in the NL West. Ray, meanwhile, no longer offers multiple years of team control, as he’s set to enter free agency after this season. Even if he were pitching like a top-of-the-rotation arm, the days of him netting an impact prospect are over.

Alas, Ray is not pitching like a top-of-the-rotation arm. Over seven starts this season, he has thrown 31 innings and allowed 27 runs (7.84 ERA), has struck out 43, and has walked an MLB-leading 31 batters. Ray has never been what you would call a control wizard. Out of 146 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings since he debuted in 2014, only two have walked a greater percentage of hitters than Ray (10.9%). He’d always been able to make that work, however, because he’s struck out the seventh-highest percentage of hitters (28.7%) in that span. That exorbitant strikeout rate has been steady, too — if his current rate holds, this would be his fourth-straight season striking out at least 12 batters per nine innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is my latest in a series discussing each team’s 60-man player pool with a focus on prospects. Previous installments of these rundowns, including potentially relevant context for discussion, can be found here:

AL East and Intro
NL East
AL Central
NL Central

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prospect List / Depth Chart

Remember that, Greinke trade aside, the Diamondbacks have been operating like buyers for the last little while, and only four of their projected regulars/rotation members are under 29. It’s unknowable whether the shortened, but more condensed season will be good or bad for their veteran’s productivity and health, but the DH spot will probably help in that regard. It means little breathers for Kole Calhoun and David Peralta, and extra at-bats for Kevin Cron and Jake Lamb without the defensive drawbacks.

Some of the same benefits could result from rostering Daulton Varsho, especially if Carson Kelly gets dinged and suddenly 36-year-old Stephen Vogt and John Hicks are platooning. Varsho could caddy for any or all of Vogt, Calhoun and Peralta, keeping the older guys fresh while getting plenty of reps so his development isn’t stifled even though he’s technically playing a bench role. This is the type of move that might help Arizona catch Wild Card lightning in a 60-game bottle, but I don’t think their current catching depth allows for it right now. The club only has four backstops in their pool, and even if they eventually add spring NRI Dominic Miroglio they still have fewer catchers than most teams and probably not enough for sticking three on the big league active roster. Perhaps Wyatt Mathieson will put on the gear at the campsite.

The next-highest ranked prospect likely to debut this year is righty J.B. Bukauskas. Some of the Arizona bullpen pieces need to really pop if the team is going to compete (perhaps Archie Bradley truly returns to form, or Yoan López takes a leap, or Hector Rondón bounces back, etc.) and Bukauskas has the stuff to be part of a contingent that helps win coin-flip games. Aside from some other backend/middle relief prospects who might play a role this year (Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener could usurp Merrill Kelly as the fifth starter, and Kevin Ginkel is a bullpen lock) and a couple likely role players perhaps debuting (bat-first infielder Andy Young and bat-only 1B/DH types Seth Beer and Pavin Smith), the other, more exciting D-backs prospects are young guys just getting reps in camp (Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Blake Walston, Geraldo Perdomo, Levi Kelly, Luis Frias). It’s possible the roster clocks of Josh Green (who doesn’t have to be 40-man’d until 2021) or even 2020 draftee Bryce Jarvis are punched early but Arizona would really need to be in the thick of the postseason picture for that to happen. It’s more likely spot-starter types Jeremy Beasley and Keury Mella are called upon if they need to dip into the campsite for starters. Read the rest of this entry »

Greg Jones has a quiet demeanor and loud tools. The former rang apparent when the 22-year-old shortstop called himself “kind of a mellow guy” in a recent phone conversation. The latter is why he’s No. 12 on our Tampa Bay Top Prospects list. Last summer, the Rays tabbed Jones 22nd overall as a draft-eligible sophomore out of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington.

He’d bypassed an earlier opportunity to turn pro. In 2017, the Baltimore Orioles had taken Jones in the 17th round out of Cary (NC) High School. He didn’t think he was ready. Moreover, his family wanted him to further his education. It would have taken more than the Orioles were willing to offer to change that.

“I had a number in mind, but they weren’t going to come up to it,” Jones explained. “So I was like, ‘I’ll just go to college.’ I took my talent to [UNC-Wilmington] and molded it into what I really want to be.”

The self-described late-bloomer went on to log a 1.034 OPS in his second, and final, collegiate season. He could have returned for a third, but given how much his stock had risen, bargaining power was now on his side. In what he called “a position to get the most money I possibly could,” Jones landed a signing bonus just north of $3M.

After putting pen to paper, he made the nine-plus-hour drive from the Tar Heel State to Fishkill, New York, where he joined Tampa Bay’s short-season affiliate, the Hudson Valley Renegades. Upon arriving, he ambled into the clubhouse and found his locker. A uniform top was hanging there, but no pants. “I had to go pick them up,” Jones recalled. “Luckily they had some that fit me.” Read the rest of this entry »

When Michael Augustine wrote about Zac Gallen’s repertoire back in February, he called the 24-year-old Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander “a potential future ace.” Raw stuff wasn’t the reason. None of Gallen’s offerings grade out as plus-plus (although his changeup comes close). In terms of velocity, the former University of North Carolina Tar Heels hurler averaged a pedestrian 93.1 mph with his heater last season.

What makes Gallen good is his command, as well as his ability to mix, match, and tunnel his five-pitch mix. The numbers back up the promise. After debuting with the Miami Marlins last June — he was dealt to the D-Backs at the trade deadline — Gallen put up a 2.81 ERA and a 3.61 FIP over 15 starts. Despite the lack of a power profile, he punched out 96 batters in 80 innings.

Three months after Augustine addressed Gallen’s pitches from an analytical angle, we’re going to learn about them from the pitcher himself. Gallen chronicled the origin and development of each in a phone conversation earlier this week.

———

David Laurila: What is your full repertoire?

Zac Gallen: “Four-seam, changeup, curveball, and… I call it a cutter, but it’s like a hybrid cutter/slider. You could characterize it as a hard slider, I guess.”

Laurila: No two-seamers?

Gallen: “Maybe one here or there. On rare occasion I’ll kind of squeeze one inside on a righty, maybe behind in the count, or to a lefty to see if I can get him to roll over. But my four-seam is a much better pitch, so I tend to stick with that. I probably throw a [two-seamer] once a game, or every couple of games.”

Laurila: When did you start mixing in an occasional two-seam? I’m assuming the four came first?

Gallen: “No. I actually grew up throwing a two-seamer. My dad coached our Little League team and when I was younger, maybe six, we had a guy who had played pro ball come out and teach us some things. He had me toy around with a two-seamer, so I started out throwing that. I didn’t make the full switch to a four-seamer until probably my junior year of college.”

Laurila: Why the switch to almost exclusively four-sam fastballs? Read the rest of this entry »

Drew Hedman’s title with the Arizona Diamondbacks is Major League Run Production Coordinator. The 33-year-old Pomona College graduate was promoted to that position in January 2019 after spending the previous 12 months as a pro scout. His backstory is interesting, in part because he bypassed business school along the way.

Hedman played four seasons in the Red Sox organization, and while he topped out in Double-A, that alone qualifies an accomplishment. A total of 1,521 players were selected in the 2009 draft, and only three of them went later than Hedman. As a 50th-round pick, the writing was on the wall by the time the ink dried on his first contract. Not that he didn’t give pro ball the old college try.

“I certainly knew the odds weren’t in my favor, but with that being said, I always tried to be stubborn enough to think I’d be the exception,” Hedman told me. “I did everything I could to put myself in the best possible position to make it. Obviously it didn’t happen.”

Staying in the game beyond his playing days was a goal even before his release. The question was, in which capacity? A front office role made sense — Hedman has a B.A. in Politics, Philosophy and Economics, with a focus in Economics — but his alma mater wasn’t yet the baseball breeding ground it’s become. Over a dozen Pomona alums have gone on to work for MLB teams since Guy Stevens, who now runs the Kansas City Royals’ R&D department — broke the ice in 2013. Hedman was cut loose in spring training that same year.

“Back then it wasn’t really a path that people [at Pomona] were exploring,” Hedman told me. “It wasn’t something I really knew existed, or knew how to approach if I wanted that to be a reality.”

A coaching role at the collegiate level ended up being Hedman’s “impactful first step” toward a return to professional baseball. In August 2013, he was hired as an assistant to Tim Corbin at Vanderbilt. Read the rest of this entry »

Spring training results are basically meaningless, and yet as portents of things to come are concerned, Ketel Marte homering on Sunday, in his first plate appearance of the Cactus League season, was a positive. The 26-year-old Diamondback is coming off a breakout, MVP-caliber season, albeit one that ended with him on the sidelines. Marte didn’t play a single game after September 17 due to a stress reaction in his lower back, and while he didn’t need surgery, his recovery was something of an abstraction until that first knock; the same can be said for baseball in general.

Behold, let the new season begin:

Primer turno y primer jonrón para Ketel Marte. ? #MLBDominicana ?? pic.twitter.com/CJVoZGevEx

— MLB Dominicana (@MLBDominicana) February 23, 2020

The switch-hitting Marte enjoyed a dazzling 2019, setting career highs in virtually every key offensive category. He hit .329/.389/.592, numbers that respectively ranked second, seventh, and fourth in the NL; his 150 wRC+ ranked fourth as well, behind only Christian Yelich (174), Cody Bellinger (162), and Anthony Rendon (154). That performance wasn’t anything that could have been expected given his previous history, as he entered the season a career .263/.324/.389 hitter, one fresh off a modest .260/.332/.437 (106 wRC+) showing in 2018. Marte’s 32 homers more than doubled his previous total of 22, compiled in over 1,500 plate appearances from 2015-18. Read the rest of this entry »