Archive for Dodgers

Post-Trade Deadline Pitch Mix Changes: Relievers

© Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, I took a look at a few starters who have changed their pitch mix after being traded halfway through this season. Today, I’m finishing the set. Here are the relievers who have changed their pitch selection the most in the month after joining new teams. One note: since relievers throw fewer pitches, the variability in their mix is greater; a few extra sliders to get the feel for them in a random game can tip the percentages meaningfully. I’m focusing on five relievers who made interesting changes, but you could add others to the list.

Lou Trivino, New York Yankees

The Change: -12% Four-Seamer, -6% Changeup, +8% Cutter, +14% Slider
Trivino is a rarity, a legitimate five-pitch reliever. He’s thrown his changeup, slider, sinker, cutter, and four-seamer each at least 10% of the time this year, and mixed in an occasional curveball for good measure. The Yankees are working to change that.

Since donning pinstripes, Trivino is down to three pitches he uses at least 10% of the time: sinker, slider, cutter. His slider is new this year, one of the sweeping types that are all the rage these days, and he’d already taken to the pitch in Oakland, using it nearly 20% of the time. He’s using it even more in New York; a third of the pitches he’s thrown as a Yankee have been sliders. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Diego Cartaya Gained a Flatter Swing (and Lost a Baseball Brother)

The top prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers system lost one of his baseball “brothers” a month ago. Not literally — Alex De Jesus is alive and well — but rather by dint of a trade-deadline deal. A 20-year-old infielder who’d been playing with the High-A Great Lakes Loons, De Jesus went to the Toronto Blue Jays organization, along with Mitch White, in exchange for Moises Brito and Nick Frasso.

Shortly after the trade, I asked Diego Cartaya what it’s like to have a teammate who is also a close friend leave the organization.

“It’s not easy, but I’m kind of happy for him,” replied Cartaya, who along with being L.A.’s top prospect is No. 31 in our MLB prospect rankings. “He’s going to get a better opportunity with Toronto, so we’re pretty excited for him. But it’s hard. As teammates, we spend more time together than we do with our families. He’s just like my brother.”

Cartaya’s real family is in Venezuela, and it was his father who initially taught him how to hit. The tutoring he’s received since entering pro ball at age 16 has resulted in occasional tweaks, both to his stance and his swing. Cartaya told me that he used to be “more of a big launch-angle guy,” but now has a flatter swing. Upon hearing that, I noted that the home run I’d seen him hit the previous night was more of a line drive than a moonshot. Read the rest of this entry »


The Dodgers Are Once Again Chasing History, as a Marathon and a Sprint

Los Angeles Dodgers
Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

With Tuesday night’s 4–3 win over the Mets at Citi Field, the Dodgers notched their 90th victory of the season, the second time in the last seven years that the team reached 90 wins before the end of August. Even with a subsequent pair of losses on Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, the Dodgers once again have a shot not just at 100 wins (a plateau they’ve reached four times in six full seasons under manager Dave Roberts) or even 106 (a franchise record set in 2019 and matched last year), but also at the 2001 Mariners’ expansion-era record of 116 wins, though admittedly their odds for that one grew longer this week.

The Dodgers enter Friday with an 18-game lead over the Padres in the NL West and a magic number of 14 (and can quickly shrink the latter with their series in San Diego this weekend). Despite their series loss in New York, they’re still seven games ahead of the Mets (84–48) in the race for the NL’s best record and thus the top seed in the expanded postseason. Our Playoff Odds project them to finish with 109 wins, which would be the majors’ highest total since the aforementioned Mariners. Via our Odds distribution, they have a 62.1% chance of winning at least 109, though after their back-to-back losses, their chances of winning 116 or more games are down to 1.1%.

Earlier this year, it was the Yankees who were on pace to top 116 wins, but their 13–13 July snuffed that dream out, and a 10–18 August has put even a 100-win season in doubt. The Dodgers, who briefly slipped into second place in the NL West on June 17, when they were 39–24, had a lead of just 1.5 games over the Padres as recently as June 29. They’ve gone 45–12 (.789) since that date, with separate winning streaks of seven, eight, and 12 games. Read the rest of this entry »


Against Dodgers, deGrom’s Dominance Continues, Evoking Past Greats

© Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

NEW YORK — It’s not as though Jacob deGrom hadn’t faced strong offenses in his first five starts upon returning from four months on the shelf due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. He’d twice gone up against the Braves, who rank second in the National League in scoring and who remain hot on the Mets’ tail in the NL East, as well as the Phillies, who rank fifth in scoring. On Wednesday night, in a playoff-like atmosphere at Citi Field, deGrom passed his toughest test since returning, holding the Dodgers — who lead the majors in scoring (5.36 runs per game) and wRC+ (121) — to just one run on three hits in a 2-1 victory completed in just two hours and 19 minutes.

deGrom struck out nine while matching his season high of 25 swings and misses. He’s been so dominant in his limited 2022 action that it rated as noteworthy that he surrendered a walk and a homer in the same game; he had allowed just two of each against the 103 batters he’d faced thus far (1.9%), that while striking out 46 (44.7%). More on his insane numbers further below.

deGrom got the walk out of the way almost immediately, issuing a five-pitch pass to Trea Turner, the Dodgers’ second hitter, in the top of the first inning. He didn’t get to another three-ball count until his seventh and final inning, and didn’t allow a hit until Justin Turner singled past a diving Francisco Lindor with one out in the fifth. That one ultimately didn’t do any damage, but a hanging slider to Mookie Betts to lead off the sixth inning was another matter. Betts drilled it 415 feet to left-center for his 32nd homer of the season and his fifth in his past five starts. Read the rest of this entry »


Toronto’s Mitch White Has a New Team and a Revamped Slider

© Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Mitch White brought a new-ish slider to Toronto when the Blue Jays acquired him at this year’s trade deadline. He also brought a nerdy approach to pitching. That should come as no surprise. The 27-year-old right-hander had pitched in the Los Angeles Dodgers system since being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Santa Clara University.

White also had a big-league resume when he changed organizations. Having debuted with the Dodgers in August of 2020’s COVID-truncated campaign, he had 105-and-two-thirds innings under his belt when the four-player swap occurred. Since coming to Toronto, White has a 5.89 ERA over four starts.

White discussed his new and old sliders, and the blister issues that have dogged his career, when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park last week.

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On his path to the big leagues and dealing with blisters:
“A lot of it was staying healthy. I’ve had a few things go on every year, whether it was blisters or some back stuff. I had a broken toe at one point. Right now, I have this little guy [blister]. The slider really puts a lot of pressure there because I’m trying to get to the side of the ball and spin it, and for whatever reason, I guess my skin is soft. I’ve had to learn how to manage that stuff in between outings. Read the rest of this entry »


Suddenly, Position Players Are Sealing More Blowouts

© Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

To these eyes and those of others, the novelty of position players pitching in blowouts has worn off, but even so, the phenomenon has taken on a new twist. Whereas it has become almost routine for a team that’s getting pasted to call upon a reserve position player to close things out rather than waste a real pitcher, this season we’ve seen an unprecedented number of position players finishing games for the teams that are doing the pasting. In fact, earlier this week we saw a team do so on back-to-back nights, when Dodgers infielder Hanser Alberto nailed down 10-1 and 12-6 victories over the Brewers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Talk about adding insult to injury.

The 29-year-old Alberto is a light-hitting utilityman who during a seven-year career with four teams has played every position but catcher and center field. This year, he’s hitting .246/.258/.373 with two homers in 128 PA for the majors’ most dominant team, becoming something of a fan favorite for his role in keeping the Dodgers loose with his dugout dancing, towel-waving, and general good vibes-spreading.

Alberto came to the Dodgers with a smidgen of mound work on his resumé. He made his first pitching appearance with the Orioles on April 7, 2019, allowing two runs in the ninth inning of a game they lost to the Yankees 15-3; Austin Romine took him deep. He pitched again on April 20 of last year with the Royals; with the Rays ahead 14-7, he relieved a struggling Greg Holland and got the final out. Read the rest of this entry »


The Bellinger Tolls For the 2019 NL MVP

Cody Bellinger
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Three years ago, everything was coming up Cody Bellinger’s way. The NL Rookie of the Year in 2017, he broke out in a big way in ’19, smashing 47 home runs with an OPS over 1.000 and edging out Christian Yelich for his first (and only) MVP hardware. Bellinger had even taken to playing excellent defense in center field, not something typically on the curriculum vitae for a young first baseman. Entering his age-24 season, everyone expected that he’d be a star for the next decade or so and a building block for the Dodgers as players like Corey Seager were approaching free agency.

The ZiPS projection system, known for being the grumpy devil’s advocate as most such systems are, didn’t see any particular reason for concern, either. If you wanted Los Angeles to sign Bellinger to a lucrative contract extension, guaranteeing he wore Dodger blue for a long time, you had a loyal friend in ZiPS:

ZiPS Projection – Cody Bellinger (Pre-2020)
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2020 .291 .389 .583 549 106 160 33 5 39 118 87 126 15 155 2 6.8
2021 .290 .392 .594 535 106 155 33 5 40 119 89 126 14 159 2 6.6
2022 .284 .392 .580 529 105 150 32 4 39 115 93 130 14 155 1 6.4
2023 .282 .393 .582 521 105 147 31 4 39 114 94 132 13 156 1 6.3
2024 .277 .390 .576 509 101 141 30 4 38 110 93 131 11 154 1 5.9
2025 .276 .390 .564 493 98 136 29 4 35 105 91 123 11 151 0 5.5
2026 .275 .388 .559 476 93 131 28 4 33 100 88 115 10 149 0 5.2
2027 .271 .381 .543 462 86 125 26 5 30 93 82 109 9 143 0 4.6
2028 .266 .373 .523 440 79 117 24 4 27 84 75 99 7 136 -1 3.8
2029 .260 .363 .494 419 71 109 21 4 23 75 67 88 6 126 -1 3.0

In rest-of-career WAR, Bellinger ranked third among position players, behind just Juan Soto and Ronald Acuña Jr.

Now, if this were a comedy movie, this is the point in the trailer at which you hear the record scratch, the narrator describes the humorous change of fortune, and then the music changes to an upbeat pop hit song with clips of how Bellinger gets back everything he lost and learns about the incredible power of friendship. But it’s not. Since that NL MVP season, he has hit .200/.271/.380 in over 1,000 plate appearances, only finishing above replacement level by virtue of the fact that he at least still remembers how to play defense. This is less Pixar and more Darren Aronofsky. Read the rest of this entry »


The Dodgers’ Emmet Sheehan Is a Fast-Rising Pitching Prospect

Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Emmet Sheehan is opening a lot of eyes in his first full professional season. Selected in the sixth round of last year’s draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 22-year-old right-hander has been nothing short of dominant. Pitching for the High-A Great Lakes Loons, Sheehan has a 2.72 ERA and a 2.27 FIP to go with 93 strikeouts and just 39 hits allowed in 59.2 innings.

Recent outings have added helium to his prospect profile. Over his last three starts, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Boston College product has fanned 26 batters in 16 innings, surrendering only one earned run. On a pitching staff that includes several high-ceiling arms, Sheehan, in the opinion of multiple people I spoke to when the Loons played in Lansing last week, is the most promising of the bunch.

Sheehan discussed his overpowering repertoire, including what he’s learned about it since joining the Dodgers’ system, prior to his last start.

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David Laurila: I’ve read that your fastball gets good ride. Is that accurate?

Emmet Sheehan: “Yes, and I actually didn’t know why it plays well up in the zone until I got drafted by the Dodgers. They told me about low-slot ride and how I kind of throw from a weird release height. I’m a little lower but still get on top of the ball, which makes it play almost like it has a couple more inches of break. That’s the way they described it to me.”

Laurila: Did you work up in the zone at Boston College? Read the rest of this entry »


Albert Pujols Is Enjoying a Renaissance

Albert Pujols
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

When the Cardinals re-signed Albert Pujols in late March, few imagined that the transaction would amount to much more than a victory lap and a nice bit of closure for a 42-year-old all-time great. Though he hit well in limited duty in April, Pujols struggled to such a great extent for the next two months that a midseason retirement wouldn’t have been a surprise. Over the past six weeks, however, he’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and on Saturday, he made a bit of history.

In a 16–7 rout of the Diamondbacks in Arizona, Pujols went 4-for-4 with a pair of homers, both off Madison Bumgarner, with exit velocities of 105.4 mph and 107.5 mph. He also ripped a 109.4-mph single off the left field wall against Bumgarner, then capped his night with a softer single off Chris Devenski.

Via his first homer, Pujols surpassed Cardinals legend Stan Musial for second place in total bases. Not second in team history or second since Babe Ruth, or the start of the integration or expansion eras — that’s second all-time, behind only Hank Aaron:

Career Total Bases Leaders
Rk Player Years PA H 1B 2B 3B HR TB
1 Hank Aaron 1954-1976 13941 3771 2294 624 98 755 6856
2 Albert Pujols 2001-2022 12917 3355 1966 681 16 692 6144
3 Stan Musial 1941-1963 12721 3630 2253 725 177 475 6134
4 Willie Mays 1948-1973 12545 3293 1967 525 141 660 6080
5 Barry Bonds 1986-2007 12606 2935 1495 601 77 762 5976
6 Ty Cobb 1905-1928 13103 4189 3053 724 295 117 5854
7 Alex Rodriguez 1994-2016 12207 3115 1840 548 31 696 5813
8 Babe Ruth 1914-1935 10626 2873 1517 506 136 714 5793
9 Pete Rose 1963-1986 15890 4256 3215 746 135 160 5752
10 Carl Yastrzemski 1961-1981 13992 3419 2262 646 59 452 5539
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

His was a pretty quiet ascent; few noted Pujols passing Bonds in 2021 or Mays earlier this year.

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Pujols ranks so high in total bases given that he’s 10th in hits and fifth in both doubles and homers, but it’s that combination of power and persistence (and a little bit of luck when it comes to time missed) that’s placed him so high. While Pujols lost nearly two-thirds of a late-career season to the pandemic, Musial and Mays each missed a full season of their primes to military service, with the latter losing most of a second one as well. Read the rest of this entry »


Craig Kimbrel Is Multiple Dilemmas in One Pitcher

Craig Kimbrel
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday against the Brewers, Craig Kimbrel achieved a feat that had eluded him for months: converting a save opportunity with a one-run lead. But in true Kimbrel fashion, he did so on a tightrope. The Dodgers’ closer allowed a hit, a walk, and failed to strike out a single batter, completing what was a thoroughly underwhelming and yet nail-biting ninth inning.

Those three sentences pretty much sum up the entirety of Kimbrel’s 2022 to date. Clean outings have been few and far between, and when he does manage to put up a zero, such an effort is seldom characterized by the dominance we’ve come to associate with the All-Star closer. For now, forget what the granular numbers say. Kimbrel, as I type this out, is the owner of a 4.46 ERA in 42.1 innings, a cumulation of inefficient pitching and a tendency for batters to figure out how they’ll ambush his otherwise formidable stuff. It’s troublesome, especially for a team with playoff aspirations.

But if the Dodgers are concerned, they haven’t been keen on expressing that. The day prior to Wednesday’s scoreless outing, Kimbrel coughed up two runs en route to an extra-innings loss against the Brewers, but in a post-game interview, Dave Roberts drew the ire of fans by stating that he thought Kimbrel threw the ball well. It’s not as if the Dodgers’ skipper had the option of throwing his star reliever under the bus, but regardless, the obliviousness he displayed came off as puzzling. Objectively, Kimbrel had not thrown the ball well. What the heck did Roberts see that thousands of fans did not? Read the rest of this entry »