Evan White was playing in his first full professional season when I interviewed him 24 months ago. I went on to write that White “not only bats right and throws left, he’s a first baseman whose athleticism and offensive skill set are more akin to that of a center fielder.” My esteemed colleague Eric Longenhagen had recently called the University of Kentucky product “perhaps the 2017 draft’s most unique player.”

Two years later, White is No. 4 on our Mariners Top Prospects list, and No. 64 on our 2020 Top 100 Prospects list. Moreover, he’s projected to begin the season — assuming there is a season — in Seattle’s starting lineup. If so, he’ll have leapfrogged Triple-A. White spent last year at Double-A Arkansas where he slashed .293/.350/.488, with 18 home runs in 400 plate appearances.

The introduction to the 2018 interview also included the line, “Last June’s 17th overall pick doesn’t project to hit for much power.” As evidenced by the aforementioned output, that’s now looking to be untrue. White’s swing is proving to be more lethal than expected — this despite his not having retooled it toward that end.

“I’m just continuing to learn, continuing to grow,” White told me prior to spring training’s being shut down. “My approach is the same — it’s to stay middle of the field — but my timing is more consistent. If I’m late, I’ve got to rush, and when I’m rushing I’m not making as good decisions because I’m not seeing the ball as well.”

Seeing the ball has never been much of an issue. Along with possessing solid bat-to-ball skills, the Columbus, Ohio native strives to be a selective hitter. That’s not by chance. As noted in the earlier piece, White has a strong appreciation for what Joey Votto brings to the table in Cincinnati. Read the rest of this entry »

The first time I interviewed Keston Hiura was over the phone. This was a few months after he’d been taken ninth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2017 draft. Hiura was playing for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, and he called at the assigned time from a Midwest League ballpark after batting practice. I don’t recall which ballpark.

I was in Lowell, Massachusetts at a New York-Penn League game that had already started. It was loud at LeLacheur Park, so I talked to Hiura from the relative quiet of a stairwell down the left-field line. The interview went well. I found the former UC Irvine Anteater to be both forthcoming and articulate.

The second time I interviewed Hiura was at the Brewers spring training complex, four weeks ago. Standing face-to-face — closer than the six-foot distance now deemed necessary — I accused him of being boring.

Truth be told, the pertinent ground had already been covered. In our earlier long-distance conversation we’d gone over the toe tap into a high leg kick, the inside-out swing with a high finish, the way he kept both hands on the bat. For good measure, we’d touched on his patience-paired-with-aggression approach.

Everything that was true then is true now. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s never really a bad time to “remember some guys,” but with baseball’s return date still up in the air, now seemed like an especially good moment to geek out on some of the best lineups of the past few decades, with a focus on how the groups were assembled. I initially wanted to create a “Top 10 of the Decade” series that would include rankings that were well-balanced between both leagues. But after running the numbers for lineups in the 1990s, I found that the majority of the best lineups were concentrated in the same few teams, mostly led by a core group of hitters performing at an elite level over the course of multiple seasons. The 1998 Houston Astros were the lone National League team that even managed to crack the Top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, or offensive WAR.

Not only did I determine that it would be tricky to rank them relative to each other, it also became clear that one team — the Cleveland Indians — stood out over the rest. Not for one particular season, but for an eight-year run of dominance that began in 1994 and continued into the following decade.

Cleveland’s pitching staffs were typically very good during this period, but the offensive firepower was really something to behold. As I walk you through how these lineups came together, you’ll recognize some Hall of Famers, maybe another future Hall of Famer or two, and a lot of other very good players.

By the time John Hart was promoted to general manager in September 1991, many of the players who would eventually become a core part of the team’s great lineups were either in the minor leagues or just getting their feet wet in the majors. But he certainly had his hand in maintaining the group’s dominance by consistently pulling the right strings when it came to trades and free agency.

Heading into the 1994 season, the Indians were trying to avoid their eighth consecutive losing season. They hadn’t been to the playoffs since 1954, when they lost the World Series in a four-game sweep by the New York Giants. But just as the tides turned for Cleveland in the fictional Major League, which first appeared in movie theaters in 1989, things were about to turn around in real life, too.

While they would fall short during the strike-shortened season — they were 19 games over .500 and one game within the first place Chicago White Sox when the season was called off — the Indians were finally done being a laughingstock around the league. They would go on to win the division in six of the next seven seasons while reaching the World Series in 1995 and 1997. It’s a shame that a team this good could not bring home a championship. A note on the below: overall league rankings are listed in parentheses next to the year.  Read the rest of this entry »

There’s no question that Nick Madrigal can hit. The Chicago White Sox drafted the sweet-swinging infielder fourth-overall in 2018 after he slashed .361/.422/.502 at Oregon State University — and he’s continued to rake. Last year, Madrigal put up a tasty .311/.377/.414 slash line between three levels, reaching Triple-A in his first full professional season.

Few doubt that the just-turned-23-year-old will be a solid big-leaguer, as his bat-to-ball skills come with strong defense at the second base position. The question is whether he’ll ever produce more than a modicum of in-game power. Madrigal stands 5’ 7”, and he’s gone deep just four times in 705 minor-league plate appearances.

Could he one day display pop? Mindful that 5’ 6” Jose Altuve homered 31 times last year, I asked Madrigal how much raw power he actually has.

“I have some in my swing,” Madrigal told me on Friday. “I’m getting stronger and stronger every year, so I do think power could be part of my game. I’m not too worried about it, though. People say, ‘When will you start doing that?’ or ‘When will you start doing this?’ But I know what kind of player I am. My job is to get on base. I can drive the ball, but I’m not going to go up there trying to hit home runs, or anything like that.”

Once upon a time, he did go for the downs. Read the rest of this entry »

A quote from Eric Longenhagen is a good way to lead an article on Nolan Jones. Our resident prospect guru wrote the following about Jones, who ranks No. 54 on our recently-released 2020 Top 100 Prospects list:

“Jones is a giant corner infielder with among the best eyes for the strike zone in the minors and some of the most impressive raw power, as well.”

Those platitudes are largely backed up by the numbers. Cleveland’s second-round pick in the 2016 draft stands an imposing 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, and his OBP as a professional is an impressive .409. Pairing those attributes with his preponderance of power, Jones projects to have — again per Longenhagen — “among the highest three true outcomes percentages in the big leagues.”

Jones has a solid understanding of his strengths, and a pretty good idea of what he needs to improve upon. And he’s already made some meaningful adjustments since being selected 55th overall out of Philadelphia’s Holy Ghost Prep. In an effort to make his bat path more efficient, Jones has tweaked both his stance and where he holds his hands. The kinetic chain being what it is, one feeds into the other. Read the rest of this entry »

While the Brewers showed a disappointing inclination to cut costs this winter in a division that’s ripe for dominating, they didn’t disappoint when it came to their franchise player, Christian Yelich. Some of the team’s secondary talent, names like Eric Thames, Gio González, and Travis Shaw, were left to find richer pastures, but the Brewers made sure to lock up the services of the player who was truly indispensable. Yelich didn’t get Bryce Harper or Gerrit Cole money, but that was never in the cards with free agency years away, him hitting the market in his 30s, and coming off a significant injury. My colleague Jay Jaffe has smithed up many additional words on Yelich which you should go read now.

When seeing the Brewers close a long-term pact with their superstar, it’s not hard to contrast it with the behavior of the Cleveland Indians. A team with a larger market but worse attendance, the Indians were very close to the Brewers in revenue in the most recent Forbes estimates, with $282 million in revenue compared to $288 million for the Brew Crew. There’s some give and take in these numbers with baseball’s books not being open for all to peruse, but the figures probably aren’t that far off the mark. After all, compared to companies in other industries with similar revenues, baseball teams are relatively simple corporations. The big-ticket revenues and costs are in fact quite well-known, so there’s only so far these numbers can miss.

My fellow FanGraphier Craig Edwards convincingly argued last week that the question of the Indians being able to afford to extend Francisco Lindor a new contract is more a question of willingness than ability. Read the rest of this entry »

Greg Allen is a better hitter than he showed in 2019. In a season that saw him shuffle back and forth between Cleveland and Columbus, the 26-year-old switch-hitting outfielder slashed a disappointing .229/290/.346 with a 66 wRC+ in 256 big-league plate appearances. Things were especially dismal early on. Battling the BABIP gods at every turn, Allen went four for his first 44.

Again, Allen is by no means abysmal with the bat — last year’s woes notwithstanding. The 2014 sixth-round pick was a plus hitter at San Diego State University, where he played for Tony Gwynn, and he’s slashed .282/.376/.415 at the Triple-A level. What Allen has lacked is consistency, and as evidenced by the aforementioned early-season swoon, a little bit of good fortune.

Allen — a business major during at SDSU — discussed his hitting philosophy, and his efforts to get better, during the 2019 season.

———

David Laurila: Is hitting more of an art or more of a science?

Greg Allen: “That’s a good question. I think it’s probably a mixture of both. A big part of hitting is getting in rhythm — being in touch with your movements and timing — but there’s definitely a science component to it as well. As we’ve seen with the emergence of launch angles, and all the different analytics, science definitely plays a part. So again, a mixture of both. And it depends on the individual.”

Laurila: What are your thoughts on launch angle?

Allen: “For a guy like myself, who is probably not going to hit for a ton of power, the launch angle may not be as important. But there are still some key aspects to that. Having your swing be in the zone as long as possible, getting on plane — different things like that — all play a part. It may impact a certain player, and what his swing is like, more than others. Overall, analytics are impacting every hitter in the game.

“A lot of times, people think launch angle and get all tied up into the homers and the fly balls, but there are other aspects to it as well. And even launch angle opposed to attack goal… the way your barrel is entering the zone. From my understanding, launch angle more so refers to the angle at which the ball is coming off the bat. In that respect, if you’re hitting a whole lot of line drives you may not have a crazy-skew launch angle, but if that’s what works best for you swing, then that’s what works best for you as an individual.”

Laurila: Is your swing natural, or would it be better descried as built? Read the rest of this entry »

I think it’s fair to say that the city of Cleveland has an image problem. I don’t know how far back this issue goes, but they’ve been late-night joke fodder for as long as I can remember. I suppose flyover country plus rust belt plus the depiction of the city and baseball team in the movie Major League adds up to a less-than-stellar perception of the city. That attitude often transfers over to the baseball club, particularly in terms of what the team can and cannot do when it comes to spending. This perception is central to the debate about whether the Cleveland baseball club can afford a massive contract extension for Francisco Lindor. However, perception isn’t always reality.

There are two principal arguments against Cleveland offering a big contract to Lindor. The first is that Cleveland is too small of a market with meager revenues, and signing Lindor would push payroll too high. The second is an offshoot of the first: If Cleveland were to sign Lindor to a huge contract, they would have their ability to compete constrained because Lindor would cost too much to keep payroll in line with typical levels. Both arguments are worth exploring.

Last season, Forbes ranked Cleveland 25th among franchises for valuation purposes at $1.15 billion. Twenty-fifth place feels pretty close to 30th, and it’s true that Cleveland’s valuation by Forbes was just $150 million higher than the last-place Marlins. It’s also true that Cleveland is closer to 18th-ranked Arizona Diamondbacks than they are to Miami. Cleveland’s market certainly isn’t the biggest in baseball, but it has close to the same number of households as Denver and is significantly ahead of places like St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Milwaukee. It’s not just market size and valuation where Cleveland is closer to a middle-of-the-pack team than a cellar-dweller. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the AL/NL distribution of the season preview pods so far and a few notable numbers from the newly published FanGraphs playoff odds, then preview the 2020 Indians (8:11) with Sports Illustrated’s T.J. Zuppe, and the 2020 Rangers (38:55) with The Athletic’s Levi Weaver.

Audio intro: Della Mae, "The Odds of Getting Even"
Audio interstitial: The Jam, "I’ve Changed My Address"
Audio outro: Willie Nelson (Feat. Sinéad O’Connor), "Don’t Give Up"

Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to Levi on the Rangers’ versatility
Link to Levi on Solak
Link to order The MVP Machine

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On Friday, the Cleveland Indians found themselves in the middle of a classic good news, bad news situation. It was encapsulated by this tweet from their official Twitter account:

We would like to officially welcome Domingo Santana to The Land!

Additionally, Mike Clevinger will undergo surgery on his left knee today and his timetable is TBD. pic.twitter.com/3PSW9gPjeO

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) February 14, 2020

First, the bad news. While participating in preseason drills earlier in the week, Mike Clevinger partially tore the meniscus in his left knee. After his surgery on Friday, the club announced a recovery timeline of six-to-eight weeks. The short end of his rehab timeline would put him on track to rejoin the team just after Opening Day. But since he’ll have missed all of spring training, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was brought along conservatively. Depending on how much time he needs to ramp up for the season, it’s possible he’d miss as much as the first month. Read the rest of this entry »