Archive for Nationals

Trevor Rosenthal Reaches for Infinity

Last month, in the wake of Bryce Harper’s signing with the Phillies, I took stock of the Nationals and raised an eyebrow at the limited fixes administered to a bullpen that has required annual midseason makeovers, and that last year tied for 25th in the majors in WAR (0.6). General manager Mike Rizzo’s big offseason moves regarding the unit were to sign Trevor Rosenthal, who missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and Kyle Barraclough, who pitched to a 4.20 ERA and 4.98 FIP with the Marlins. So far, it hasn’t gone well, to say the least. The unit as a whole has an 11.02 ERA through five games.

Barraclough has only been charged with one run allowed in 3.1 innings, but he’s also allowed five out of five inherited runners to score. That’s no good, but it’s nothing compared to the travails of Rosenthal, a 28-year-old righty who, during his Cardinals tenure, pitched to a 2.99 ERA and 2.60 FIP while saving 121 games from 2012-17.

On March 30 against the Mets, Rosenthal entered a tied game in the eighth inning and proceeded to allow back-to-back singles to Wilson Ramos and Jeff McNeil, then walked Amed Rosario (a tough thing to do given the kid’s 4.9% walk rate last year) and served up a two-run single to J.D. Davis. Manager Davey Martinez gave him the hook in favor of Barraclough, who immediately balked in a run, and two outs later, allowed a two-run double by Pete Alonso. Thus, four runs were charged to Rosenthal, who didn’t retire a batter.

Undeterred, Martinez called on Rosenthal again the next day with the Nationals trailing the Mets 5-2 and runners on the corners courtesy of mid-March signing Tony Sipp. Facing Rosario again, Rosenthal threw just one pitch, which the 23-year-old shortstop lined for an RBI single. Sean Doolittle relieved Rosenthal and allowed back-to-back singles, the second of which scored Rosario. Another day, another outing with a run allowed but no out for Rosenthal. Read the rest of this entry »


Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman Are the Same, and Also Different

If you watch enough baseball, players start to blend together in your brain. You know what I’m talking about — Corey Seager is injury-prone Carlos Correa. Ozzie Albies is caffeinated Jose Altuve (no small feat, since Altuve is a Five Hour Energy spokesperson). Newly minted $100 million man Alex Bregman is Anthony Rendon with good hair. The Bregman/Rendon comparison occurred to me even before I saw Bregman play. A highly-drafted college third baseman with an excellent all-around game? More power than you’d think despite a swing that seems designed to put the ball in play? Probably a little better at baserunning than you’d expect, even if he isn’t a burner? Yeah, that pretty much covers both guys.

Nothing Bregman has done since reaching the majors has changed this early comparison in my mind. Between 2017 (Bregman’s first full year in the bigs) and 2018, he’s recorded a 141 wRC+ to Rendon’s 140. Bregman has walked 11.3% of the time, Rendon 11.6%. Bregman has struck out 13.7% of the time to Rendon’s 13.6%. Bregman has a .219 ISO; Rendon’s is .230. Bregman has 50 home runs; Rendon has 49.

You get the general idea — both players have been incredible, and both have done it in really similar ways. Rendon has been worth 13 WAR over the past two years, second-best among third basemen. Bregman has been worth 11.1 WAR, good for fourth. Here’s another thing they have in common — they were both among the most extreme swing-rate changers from 2017 to 2018. Plot twist, though! It was in opposite directions. Bregman decreased his swing rate by the third-most among qualified hitters, while Rendon increased his by the second-most. Yes, we’ve finally found a place where Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman are different — extremely different.

For Alex Bregman, 2017 must have been a mix of satisfaction and frustration. His 217 PA in 2016 exhausted his rookie eligibility, and while he held his own in his first big league action (114 wRC+), he looked very much like someone struggling to adjust to big league pitching. He struck out in 24% of his plate appearances, light years higher than his 10% career minor league rate (and 7.5% college rate). His swinging strike rate was 11.8%, meaningfully above league average. In short, he didn’t look like the hitter scouts expected him to be. Read the rest of this entry »


Juan Soto Is Extreme

It’s not a news flash that Juan Soto was great in 2018. The simplest of statistics could tell that story. His OBP started with a 4. His slugging percentage started with a 5. He had 22 homers in a mere 116 games. However, the real hype starts when you dig into the numbers a little more. Juan Soto was 19, and he walked 16% of the time in the big leagues while putting up a 146 wRC+. People are making historical comparisons because that’s the only way to appreciate such a tremendous feat. No one in history has put up a better batting line before their 20th birthday, and the only people to come close are Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro, and Ty Cobb. When you put it that way, maybe we’re underselling how great Soto’s 2018 was.

I’m not writing today to remind you of how good Soto’s 2018 was (like, really good though! Really good!). Instead, let’s talk about the approach he used to generate those numbers. Here’s a leaderboard of the 10 best hitters in baseball by wOBA last year, minimum of 450 PA. I’m using wOBA instead of wRC+ for compatibility with data further along in the article:

Best Hitters in Baseball, 2018
Player wOBA
Mookie Betts 0.449
Mike Trout 0.447
J.D. Martinez 0.427
Christian Yelich 0.422
Max Muncy 0.407
Alex Bregman 0.396
Juan Soto 0.392
Jose Ramirez 0.391
Aaron Judge 0.391
Nolan Arenado 0.391

Well, that’s about what you’d expect. Ten great hitters, or potentially nine great hitters and Max Muncy, depending on how you feel about him. Paul Goldschmidt was eleventh if you want to leave Muncy out of this. That alone is already amazing. What makes it really impressive, however, is that Soto did it all against fastballs. I’m going to throw another leaderboard at you. Read the rest of this entry »


The Washington Nationals Take a Sipp

On Wednesday, the Washington Nationals dipped into the leftovers pile of free agency and came away with lefty reliever Tony Sipp, formerly of the Houston Astros, who signed a one-year, $1.25 million deal, with a $2.5 million mutual option for 2020.

Sipp spent five seasons with Houston, originally joining the Astros as a free agent in 2014 after being released from a minor-league contract with the Padres. The book on Sipp at the time was that his control wasn’t quite passable enough to use him in high-leverage innings, and it looked a lot like he was destined to spend his career shuttling between Triple-A and the majors depending on team needs at the time.

In 2014-2015, Sipp significantly improved that long-term outlook with increased confidence in his splitter, making a concerted effort to throw the pitch for strikes enough to make it not-so-predictable. Actually getting batters to chase it resulted in the splitter being promoted to a regular part of his repertoire, which had previously consisted primarily of a mediocre fastball and a good slider.

During those first two years, the splitter became his go-to tool against righties, throwing it 315 times against them compared to just 21 time to left-handed batters. The slider remained his bread-and-butter pitch against lefties as expected and over 2014-2015, Sipp allowed a 2.66 ERA and 2.93 FIP, and struck out 125 batters in 105 innings. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1345: Season Preview Series: Nationals and Mariners

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Max Scherzer’s supremacy and the changes coming to the Atlantic League in 2019 as part of its partnership with MLB, include an altered base size, mound distance, strike zone, and more, then preview the 2019 Nationals (29:00) with Washington Post columnist Barry Svrluga, and the 2019 Seattle Mariners (1:04:16) with Seattle Times Mariners beat writer Ryan Divish.

Audio intro: Pixies, "Debaser"
Audio interstitial 1: Grateful Dead, "He’s Gone"
Audio interstitial 2: The Baseball Project, "Ichiro Goes to the Moon"
Audio outro: Chip Taylor & Carrie Rodriguez, "Play it Again Sam"

Link to Kershaw/Scherzer article
Link to Atlantic League-MLB press release
Link to Sam on Hamilton and Bolt
Ben’s article on moving the mound
Link to Cooper article about moving the mound
Link to Jeff on banning the shift
Link to Barry’s book, The Grind
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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The Post-Bryce Harper Era Begins in Washington

The Nationals are now officially in the post-Bryce Harper era. With the news of his completion of a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, Washington will no longer employ the brash prodigy whose presence has more or less defined the franchise since his arrival as a 19-year-old on April 28, 2012. It’s clear that the Nationals have been bracing for this moment since the six-time All-Star slugger spurned a 10-year, $300 million offer that — as we’ve only learned recently — reportedly included roughly $100 million in deferred money. Save for a little less star power, and perhaps a little less swagger, the team does not appear to be that worse for wear.

In fact, the Nationals are currently projected to win the NL East, though Harper’s signing has shrunk the gap between them and the Phillies, who we now project for 86 wins to the Nationals’ 90. That a similar forecast last spring went awry was of a piece with Harper’s D.C. tenure, a period defined as much by what they did not accomplish as what they did. They were also the preseason favorites going into the two other seasons in which they missed the playoffs with Harper in tow, and while they did win four division titles in Harper’s seven seasons — including the first for the franchise since relocating from Montreal prior to the 2005 season — the Nationals failed to win a single playoff series. They went an excruciating 0-for-4 in the NL Division Series, losing to lower-seeded teams each time. Three of the four series went the distance; the Nationals squandered early leads and lost those decisive games on their home field by a total of four runs.

Lest you think that I’m attempting to hang the Nationals’ failures upon Harper himself, I’m not. While his overall playoff numbers are pretty unremarkable (.211/.315/.487), he went 7-for-15 with 17 total bases in those four elimination games. He won his MVP award in 2015, when the team missed the playoffs, and by WAR, he was more valuable in the other two seasons in which they fizzled (2013 and ’18), than in ’14 or ’16, when they won the NL East. Regardless, that era is history, and perhaps not the happiest one if you’re a Nationals fan, though it had its moments. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals.

Batters

When I saw the Washington Nationals towards the end of the randomly generated ZiPS order back around Thanksgiving, I thought to myself, “There’s no way that Bryce Harper appears in those projections unless he re-signs.” But here we are! Even more surprising is the degree to which ZiPS has fallen in love with Juan Soto, leaving Bryce Harper as merely the second-ranked player on the Nationals’ list. Young players don’t get the Ken Griffey Jr. offensive comp very often. In fact, I think Soto is the first player to get Jr. as his top comp at this early an age. Comps to Griffey in his thirties tend to be more common (Edwin Encarnacion got him as his No. 3 comp).

What you have here is a lineup in which the cream is very…uh…creamy. Soto’s projections rank him the No. 1 left fielder in baseball among the teams whose projections have gone live and I don’t think I’m giving any spoilers away by saying that neither Kyle Schwarber or Brett Gardner will have better projections. Anthony Rendon won’t drop below fifth among third baseman and there’s nobody left to push Trea Turner below the bronze at shortstop. That give the Nationals three players with a mean projection that makes them legitimate stars. The supporting cast is pretty good, too: Eaton’s at the back of the top 10 if he can stay healthy, ZiPS projects a decent bounce back campaign from Brian Dozier, and catcher and first base don’t drag the team down. Victor Robles isn’t projected to make as big a splash as Juan Soto, but is still soothsayed as an above average center fielder as a rookie.

Pitchers

The pitching bears a resemblance with the lineup in that the highs here are very high. You could do a lot worse than your top three starters having Greg MadduxBret SaberhagenAndy Pettitte as a set of comps. And as weird as it sounds, ZiPS may even be slightly underrating Patrick Corbin; if I used a beta version of ZiPS that is probably a year away from going live, Corbin’s 3.63 ERA would drop to 3.42 and he’d go from the 16th pitcher ranked so far to the 12th. The difference is the full implementation of plate discipline data, which shows Corbin was the second-hardest starting pitcher (min. 100 innings) to make contact against in 2018. It’s easy to cruise on your team’s defense or a lucky BABIP; it’s much harder to cruise by fooling batters, and Corbin doesn’t use a novel trick that might cause him to have a short shelf life.

After the top three starters, ZiPS is unimpressed with Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson. ZiPS would actually slightly prefer that the Nats use Erick Fedde and Joe Ross in those slots, but none of them are all that exciting. Ross was at one point, and he’s young enough to still recover, but his career was waylaid considerably by injury.

The bullpen is pretty much the same story. After Sean Doolittle (who has the 7th best projected ERA+ in baseball so far, though Yankees ‘pen is still to come) and Trevor Rosenthal, there’s a whole lot of meh going on. The only relief pitcher who really makes the computer feel a little flush is Austin Adams (there are two Austin Adami), a reliever with the classic mid 90s-fastball/slider combo and another classic trait of many hard-throwing minor league relievers: frequent control issues. Last year, Adams made real progress with his control, getting his walk rate under four in Triple-A while striking out 15 batters per nine innings, though Washington showed little interest in seeing what Adams can do. Washington never really seemed to have much faith in Felipe Vazquez or Blake Treinen either. One would think they’d have learned their lessons about not being more curious about hard-throwing strikeout machine relievers with command issues.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS has the Nationals with the most WAR in the NL East, but does not similarly project them to be the first-place team. Simply put, ZiPS is unimpressed with team’s depth overall. This is due both to the reserves and the back of the bullpen, but also a minor league system that is likely to provide little in the way of additional reinforcements. Now, Robles is still technically a prospect, but he’s already considered here as a starter, not a reinforcement, and of the center field time split in the depth chart WARtoon, it’s Robles who makes up the bulk of the value rather than Michael Taylor.

The one exception is Carter Kieboom, a player who ZiPS thinks could backstop an injured infielder quite adequately, and certainly be an upgrade from Wilmer Difo, who would be the likely replacement if injury strikes a Turner or a Rendon (something which has happened before). Long-term, ZiPS projects a lot of power upside from Kieboom, thinking he’ll get into the twenties in home runs a year fairly easily, with peak WARs that suggest multiple All-Star appearances.

After that, there’s very little in short-term value. The next-best position player in the minors for the Nats, at least in terms of how ZiPS views 2019, is catcher Tres Barrera, projected to hit .228/.287/.355 for a 0.3 WAR in just under 300 plate appearances (which will almost certainly all be in the majors in 2019). And really, if a catcher was injured, whichever of Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes is healthy is likely to simply take over most of the additional playing time.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 20 LF 153 558 106 165 31 4 36 112 98 130 8 4
Bryce Harper L 26 RF 149 516 104 140 30 1 35 109 119 153 14 5
Trea Turner R 26 SS 156 621 96 171 30 9 19 75 56 132 45 9
Anthony Rendon R 29 3B 140 522 80 147 38 2 21 88 62 90 5 2
Adam Eaton L 30 RF 119 452 71 133 24 6 9 48 45 87 11 4
Brian Dozier R 32 2B 142 552 87 138 32 4 25 83 61 127 12 4
Victor Robles R 22 CF 122 454 57 117 25 6 10 53 36 95 28 12
Carter Kieboom R 21 SS 120 482 64 116 24 1 15 56 46 125 7 3
Matt Adams L 30 1B 118 305 39 77 16 0 18 62 25 78 0 0
Kurt Suzuki R 35 C 95 316 36 83 18 0 9 49 19 43 0 0
Yan Gomes R 31 C 103 361 42 86 19 0 13 49 20 102 0 0
Wilmer Difo B 27 2B 138 423 55 105 17 5 7 40 33 91 14 4
Michael A. Taylor R 28 CF 124 381 46 89 19 2 11 40 30 133 22 6
Ryan Zimmerman R 34 1B 104 370 51 96 21 1 17 66 32 86 2 1
Matt Wieters B 33 C 96 320 32 76 14 0 9 43 31 69 0 0
Matt Reynolds R 28 SS 106 338 41 78 19 3 5 33 31 95 4 2
Moises Sierra R 30 RF 100 334 39 85 16 1 8 38 25 78 6 4
Tres Barrera R 24 C 69 259 28 59 13 1 6 25 17 66 2 0
Spencer Kieboom R 28 C 77 244 28 56 12 0 4 24 26 50 0 0
Adrian Sanchez B 28 SS 108 348 35 86 19 2 4 33 16 64 8 5
Howie Kendrick R 35 2B 92 331 41 92 18 2 6 34 22 67 6 3
Jacob Wilson R 28 3B 112 394 46 89 20 1 10 45 34 102 2 2
Pedro Severino R 25 C 100 324 32 75 13 1 7 33 20 70 2 1
Miguel Montero L 35 C 78 218 24 48 7 0 7 29 30 64 1 0
Jason Martinson R 30 3B 95 348 39 65 12 2 14 42 27 167 4 3
Jake Noll R 25 3B 129 491 54 118 17 3 10 50 24 103 6 3
Luis Sardinas B 26 SS 103 348 38 90 13 2 5 33 16 63 6 4
Austin Davidson L 26 1B 106 355 43 84 18 3 8 39 34 79 5 4
Brandon Snyder R 32 3B 108 376 47 84 19 2 14 50 31 141 3 1
Irving Falu B 36 2B 100 361 37 91 14 2 4 34 24 39 7 5
Raudy Read R 25 C 91 342 36 82 19 2 7 37 18 76 2 1
Hunter Jones R 27 CF 114 422 45 97 15 5 6 38 31 105 12 5
Drew Ward L 24 1B 118 408 51 88 19 2 11 46 50 153 1 2
Matt Hague R 33 1B 92 341 39 87 18 0 6 34 34 61 2 1
Alec Keller L 27 LF 98 369 39 94 15 4 2 30 22 76 5 4
Yadiel Hernandez L 31 LF 117 411 50 101 16 1 12 47 42 106 3 2
Bengie Gonzalez R 29 SS 107 361 36 81 16 2 3 28 28 76 7 4
Andrew Stevenson L 25 CF 133 445 49 105 14 4 5 38 33 117 17 9
Jose Marmolejos L 26 1B 127 486 55 118 25 3 10 53 37 121 0 1
Tyler Goeddel R 26 LF 99 321 36 73 12 3 5 31 28 87 8 3
Michael Almanzar R 28 3B 102 362 34 82 18 1 7 36 17 98 0 1
Chris Dominguez R 32 1B 88 293 32 67 14 1 10 35 11 98 6 3
Khayyan Norfork R 30 2B 75 220 22 48 8 0 2 16 16 63 3 1
Taylor Gushue B 25 C 96 349 36 70 14 1 9 38 27 110 0 1
Zach Collier L 28 RF 95 305 32 60 13 4 5 29 28 117 4 4
Chuck Taylor B 25 LF 124 486 54 118 21 3 5 44 43 101 3 4
Dan Gamache L 28 2B 117 396 41 90 17 1 5 34 36 117 1 4
Rafael Bautista R 26 CF 97 361 37 85 9 3 2 23 20 79 19 6
Telmito Agustin L 22 LF 105 370 40 84 15 3 8 36 21 105 9 6
Adam Brett Walker R 27 LF 93 336 42 62 14 2 18 55 28 169 4 1
Osvaldo Abreu R 25 SS 119 430 45 89 18 3 7 38 33 136 7 6

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Juan Soto 658 .296 .400 .559 149 .263 .329 8.6 -6 5.1 Ken Griffey
Bryce Harper 646 .271 .407 .537 146 .266 .320 8.2 -4 4.7 Elbie Fletcher
Trea Turner 685 .275 .337 .444 103 .169 .323 6.1 3 4.4 Rafael Furcal
Anthony Rendon 597 .282 .360 .483 119 .201 .307 6.6 6 4.4 Davey Johnson
Adam Eaton 513 .294 .371 .434 111 .139 .348 6.2 7 3.0 Pat Kelly
Brian Dozier 623 .250 .329 .458 104 .208 .283 5.5 -2 2.8 Jose Valentin
Victor Robles 510 .258 .329 .405 92 .148 .307 5.0 7 2.4 Milton Bradley
Carter Kieboom 534 .241 .311 .388 83 .147 .295 4.3 0 1.5 Michael Young
Matt Adams 334 .252 .311 .482 104 .230 .282 5.4 5 1.3 Daryle Ward
Kurt Suzuki 350 .263 .321 .405 89 .142 .280 4.8 -1 1.2 Mike Lieberthal
Yan Gomes 391 .238 .289 .399 79 .161 .297 4.1 3 1.1 Nelson Santovenia
Wilmer Difo 464 .248 .304 .362 74 .113 .302 4.1 6 1.0 Derek Wathan
Michael A. Taylor 414 .234 .291 .381 75 .147 .329 4.2 3 0.8 Damon Mashore
Ryan Zimmerman 410 .259 .320 .459 102 .200 .296 5.4 -2 0.8 Hubie Brooks
Matt Wieters 357 .238 .306 .366 76 .128 .277 4.0 -1 0.6 Scott Servais
Matt Reynolds 375 .231 .299 .349 70 .118 .307 3.7 1 0.5 Edgar Gonzalez
Moises Sierra 366 .254 .314 .380 82 .126 .310 4.3 3 0.4 Kevin Romine
Tres Barrera 283 .228 .287 .355 68 .127 .283 3.6 0 0.3 David Duff
Spencer Kieboom 272 .230 .305 .328 67 .098 .274 3.5 0 0.3 Bill Dobrolsky
Adrian Sanchez 371 .247 .283 .348 65 .101 .293 3.5 2 0.2 Greg Fulton
Howie Kendrick 359 .278 .329 .399 90 .121 .333 4.9 -8 0.2 Dave Concepcion
Jacob Wilson 442 .226 .293 .358 70 .132 .280 3.6 1 0.1 Craig Walck
Pedro Severino 350 .231 .281 .343 63 .111 .275 3.4 0 0.1 Brandon Marsters
Miguel Montero 253 .220 .320 .349 76 .128 .279 3.9 -5 0.0 Chad Kreuter
Jason Martinson 383 .187 .255 .353 58 .167 .305 2.9 6 0.0 Sean Mcnally
Jake Noll 527 .240 .281 .348 65 .108 .286 3.5 4 0.0 Pat Osborn
Luis Sardinas 372 .259 .294 .351 69 .092 .304 3.7 -2 0.0 Tom Veryzer
Austin Davidson 398 .237 .310 .372 78 .135 .284 4.0 2 0.0 Matt Bowser
Brandon Snyder 414 .223 .287 .396 77 .173 .317 4.0 -5 0.0 Steve Scarsone
Irving Falu 391 .252 .299 .335 67 .083 .274 3.5 1 0.0 Casey Candaele
Raudy Read 364 .240 .280 .368 69 .129 .290 3.7 -4 0.0 Neil Wilson
Hunter Jones 466 .230 .292 .332 64 .102 .293 3.4 1 -0.1 Choo Freeman
Drew Ward 464 .216 .306 .353 73 .137 .316 3.6 3 -0.2 Lucas Duda
Matt Hague 382 .255 .325 .361 80 .106 .296 4.2 -2 -0.2 Royce Huffman
Alec Keller 397 .255 .299 .333 66 .079 .316 3.5 5 -0.2 Raul Tovar
Yadiel Hernandez 456 .246 .316 .377 82 .131 .304 4.2 -4 -0.3 Stu Pederson
Bengie Gonzalez 395 .224 .280 .305 54 .080 .277 2.9 1 -0.4 Keith Johns
Andrew Stevenson 486 .236 .292 .319 61 .083 .310 3.3 0 -0.4 Keiunta Span
Jose Marmolejos 531 .243 .298 .368 74 .126 .304 3.9 1 -0.4 Juan Tejeda
Tyler Goeddel 357 .227 .299 .330 65 .103 .297 3.5 0 -0.5 Casey Craig
Michael Almanzar 385 .227 .265 .340 58 .113 .292 3.1 2 -0.5 Colin Dixon
Chris Dominguez 312 .229 .266 .386 69 .157 .308 3.6 1 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore
Khayyan Norfork 243 .218 .282 .282 49 .064 .297 2.8 0 -0.5 Gary Green
Taylor Gushue 383 .201 .261 .324 53 .123 .265 2.8 -2 -0.6 Alan Probst
Zach Collier 339 .197 .272 .315 54 .118 .301 2.7 4 -0.7 Kevin Koslofski
Chuck Taylor 537 .243 .309 .329 68 .086 .297 3.5 0 -0.7 Scott Melvin
Dan Gamache 438 .227 .295 .313 61 .086 .310 3.0 -3 -0.8 John Hotchkiss
Rafael Bautista 391 .235 .281 .294 52 .058 .296 3.1 -3 -0.9 Fernando Ramsey
Telmito Agustin 399 .227 .273 .349 62 .122 .296 3.2 -1 -1.1 Lonnie Maclin
Adam Brett Walker 370 .185 .249 .399 66 .214 .295 3.3 -6 -1.1 Kirk Asche
Osvaldo Abreu 472 .207 .269 .312 52 .105 .286 2.7 -5 -1.2 Erick Monzon

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Max Scherzer R 34 15 7 2.98 30 30 193.3 148 64 23 50 248
Patrick Corbin L 29 12 8 3.63 32 31 181.0 171 73 21 50 195
Stephen Strasburg R 30 12 7 3.34 25 25 145.3 127 54 16 38 165
Erick Fedde R 26 6 6 4.50 25 22 112.0 118 56 14 39 95
Sean Doolittle L 32 3 1 2.95 43 0 39.7 31 13 6 7 51
Joe Ross R 26 6 5 4.53 18 18 89.3 96 45 13 27 69
Jeremy Hellickson R 32 7 7 4.74 22 22 114.0 120 60 19 31 80
Anibal Sanchez R 35 6 7 4.93 25 22 118.7 121 65 18 40 115
Austin Voth R 27 7 8 4.98 26 24 124.7 133 69 19 52 99
Logan Darnell L 30 6 7 5.09 22 18 99.0 117 56 15 33 58
Austin L. Adams R 28 3 2 3.83 43 0 51.7 40 22 4 37 68
Austen Williams R 26 6 6 4.78 32 12 92.3 98 49 14 33 79
Trevor Rosenthal R 29 3 2 3.48 36 0 33.7 29 13 3 17 46
Justin Miller R 32 5 3 3.86 53 0 56.0 51 24 8 18 62
Tyler Mapes R 27 6 7 5.08 22 19 106.3 123 60 16 35 63
Matt Grace L 30 2 1 3.99 54 1 58.7 61 26 5 18 41
Vidal Nuno L 31 3 3 4.66 33 6 65.7 71 34 13 16 56
Sterling Sharp R 24 8 9 5.21 26 26 133.0 157 77 18 51 74
Andrew Istler R 26 4 4 4.21 42 1 66.3 68 31 7 23 53
Scott Copeland R 31 7 8 5.35 21 21 109.3 124 65 17 50 73
Kyle Barraclough R 29 4 3 4.10 65 0 59.3 49 27 5 40 69
Wander Suero R 27 4 3 4.16 53 0 62.7 63 29 7 22 55
Brady Dragmire R 26 6 7 5.42 29 18 116.3 141 70 18 44 64
Henderson Alvarez R 29 3 3 5.21 10 9 48.3 56 28 7 17 24
Dakota Bacus R 28 3 3 4.82 26 4 56.0 57 30 8 27 48
Koda Glover R 26 3 2 4.32 40 0 41.7 41 20 5 15 38
Aaron Barrett R 31 1 1 4.12 23 0 19.7 18 9 2 10 19
Cesar Vargas R 27 4 5 5.42 25 15 86.3 96 52 13 47 63
Jhon Romero R 24 2 1 4.50 41 0 56.0 55 28 6 29 50
Jordan Mills L 27 3 3 4.66 39 0 48.3 49 25 5 28 41
Jaron Long R 27 7 9 5.57 25 20 124.3 152 77 23 33 68
Joaquin Benoit R 41 3 2 4.68 35 0 32.7 31 17 5 15 28
Sammy Solis L 30 2 2 4.70 57 0 46.0 45 24 7 22 48
Josh Edgin L 32 3 3 4.81 46 0 39.3 38 21 6 22 41
J.J. Hoover R 31 3 3 4.86 54 0 50.0 49 27 8 28 52
David Goforth R 30 3 4 5.37 42 2 58.7 65 35 8 31 41
Kyle McGowin R 27 6 9 5.90 25 23 122.0 137 80 27 48 105
Wil Crowe R 24 6 9 5.83 22 21 100.3 115 65 17 56 74
Tanner Rainey R 26 4 4 5.30 54 0 54.3 47 32 8 46 66
Jimmy Cordero R 27 3 4 5.40 57 0 60.0 62 36 8 40 50
James Bourque R 25 4 5 5.81 31 9 69.7 76 45 13 39 62
John Simms R 27 5 7 5.83 25 15 92.7 105 60 18 41 66
Ronald Pena R 27 2 3 5.55 36 0 47.0 49 29 8 29 43
Roman Mendez R 28 4 5 5.69 41 0 49.0 52 31 10 25 44
Bryan Harper L 29 2 3 6.38 42 0 42.3 48 30 8 31 33
Luis Reyes R 24 6 10 6.62 19 19 89.7 109 66 19 51 55

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 775 11.54 2.33 1.07 .280 142 70 3.03 5.1 Greg Maddux
Patrick Corbin 756 9.70 2.49 1.04 .309 117 86 3.40 3.4 Andy Pettitte
Stephen Strasburg 597 10.22 2.35 0.99 .298 127 79 3.20 3.2 Bret Saberhagen
Erick Fedde 490 7.63 3.13 1.13 .309 94 106 4.26 1.1 Mike LaCoss
Sean Doolittle 156 11.57 1.59 1.36 .275 149 67 3.15 0.9 Billy Wagner
Joe Ross 388 6.95 2.72 1.31 .302 94 107 4.54 0.9 Mark Knudson
Jeremy Hellickson 490 6.32 2.45 1.50 .285 90 112 4.89 0.8 Glenn Abbott
Anibal Sanchez 512 8.72 3.03 1.37 .307 89 113 4.27 0.8 Rick Helling
Austin Voth 556 7.15 3.75 1.37 .300 85 117 4.94 0.6 Kevin Hodges
Logan Darnell 445 5.27 3.00 1.36 .306 86 116 5.13 0.5 Dave Otto
Austin L. Adams 232 11.85 6.45 0.70 .300 114 87 3.85 0.5 Jim Kern
Austen Williams 406 7.70 3.22 1.36 .305 89 113 4.64 0.4 Doug Potestio
Trevor Rosenthal 147 12.30 4.54 0.80 .329 122 82 3.27 0.4 Ernie Camacho
Justin Miller 235 9.96 2.89 1.29 .297 110 91 3.86 0.4 Bert Roberge
Tyler Mapes 474 5.33 2.96 1.35 .302 84 120 5.08 0.4 Steve Finch
Matt Grace 253 6.29 2.76 0.77 .301 106 94 3.93 0.4 Dave Tomlin
Vidal Nuno 282 7.68 2.19 1.78 .299 94 106 4.89 0.4 Sam Zoldak
Sterling Sharp 605 5.01 3.45 1.22 .307 81 123 5.15 0.3 Jake Joseph
Andrew Istler 289 7.19 3.12 0.95 .302 101 99 4.14 0.3 Adrian Devine
Scott Copeland 499 6.01 4.12 1.40 .303 82 122 5.37 0.3 Dick Fowler
Kyle Barraclough 266 10.47 6.07 0.76 .295 104 97 4.09 0.3 Jack Meyer
Wander Suero 272 7.90 3.16 1.01 .304 102 98 4.09 0.2 Rafael Montalvo
Brady Dragmire 531 4.95 3.40 1.39 .309 81 124 5.38 0.1 Tony Peguero
Henderson Alvarez 216 4.47 3.17 1.30 .295 81 123 5.22 0.1 Stephen Whitmyer
Dakota Bacus 251 7.71 4.34 1.29 .297 88 114 4.90 0.1 Mike Bumstead
Koda Glover 179 8.21 3.24 1.08 .300 98 102 4.04 0.1 Trey Witte
Aaron Barrett 87 8.69 4.58 0.92 .291 103 97 4.22 0.1 Kevin Gryboski
Cesar Vargas 400 6.57 4.90 1.36 .305 81 124 5.46 0.1 Danny Kolb
Jhon Romero 251 8.04 4.66 0.96 .301 94 106 4.47 0.0 Sam Nahem
Jordan Mills 221 7.63 5.21 0.93 .306 94 106 4.72 0.0 Brian Adams
Jaron Long 555 4.92 2.39 1.66 .304 79 127 5.43 0.0 Heath Totten
Joaquin Benoit 143 7.71 4.13 1.38 .277 91 110 4.89 -0.1 Don McMahon
Sammy Solis 204 9.39 4.30 1.37 .304 90 111 4.61 -0.1 Randy Choate
Josh Edgin 178 9.38 5.03 1.37 .302 88 113 4.96 -0.1 Sean Fesh
J.J. Hoover 226 9.36 5.04 1.44 .301 87 115 4.95 -0.2 Mike Cook
David Goforth 270 6.29 4.76 1.23 .305 79 127 5.26 -0.4 Jim Todd
Kyle McGowin 549 7.75 3.54 1.99 .304 74 135 5.66 -0.4 Pete Janicki
Wil Crowe 470 6.64 5.02 1.52 .309 73 137 5.73 -0.5 Chad Paronto
Tanner Rainey 256 10.93 7.62 1.33 .293 80 125 5.34 -0.5 Josh Banks
Jimmy Cordero 281 7.50 6.00 1.20 .300 81 123 5.37 -0.5 Ken Wright
James Bourque 323 8.01 5.04 1.68 .307 73 137 5.65 -0.5 Eulogio Delacruz
John Simms 422 6.41 3.98 1.75 .298 73 137 5.74 -0.5 Wes Wilkerson
Ronald Pena 219 8.23 5.55 1.53 .301 76 131 5.58 -0.5 Rick Greene
Roman Mendez 223 8.08 4.59 1.84 .298 77 130 5.72 -0.6 Mario Ramos
Bryan Harper 206 7.02 6.59 1.70 .305 67 150 6.46 -0.9 Scott Forster
Luis Reyes 427 5.52 5.12 1.91 .303 64 156 6.55 -1.2 Mark Woodyard

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Picks to Click: Who We Expect to Make the 2020 Top 100

When publishing our lists — in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock are we buying? This post represents our best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.

This is the second year that we’re doing this, and we have some new rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. So while we think Austin Hays might have a bounce back year and be a 50 FV again, we’re not allowed to include him here; you already know about him. We also forbid ourselves from using players who were on last year’s inaugural list. (We were right about 18 of the 63 players last year, a 29% hit rate, though we have no idea if that’s good or not, as it was our first time engaging in the exercise.) At the end of the piece, we have a list of potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year. They’re unlikely to ever be a 50 FV or better because of their role, but they often have a sizable impact on competitive clubs, and readers seemed to like that we had that category last year.

We’ve separated this year’s players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible, and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own with THE BOARD. For players who we’ve already covered this offseason, we included a link to the team lists, where you can find a full scouting report. We touch briefly on the rest of the names in this post. Here are our picks to click:

Teenage Pitchers
Torres was young for his draft class, is a plus athlete, throws really hard, and had surprisingly sharp slider command all last summer. White looked excellent in the fall when the Rangers finally allowed their high school draftees to throw. He sat 92-94, and his changeup and breaking ball were both above-average. Pardinho and Woods Richardson are the two advanced guys in this group. Thomas is the most raw but, for a someone who hasn’t been pitching for very long, he’s already come a long way very quickly.

Eric Pardinho, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Lenny Torres, Jr., RHP, Cleveland Indians
Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, New York Mets (full report)
Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Owen White, RHP, Texas Rangers
Mason Denaburg, RHP, Washington Nationals (full report)
Tahnaj Thomas, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (full report)

The “This is What They Look Like” Group
If you like big, well-made athletes, this list is for you. Rodriguez was physically mature compared to his DSL peers and also seems like a mature person. The Mariners have indicated they’re going to send him right to Low-A this year. He could be a middle-of-the-order, corner outfield power bat. Luciano was the Giants’ big 2018 July 2 signee. He already has huge raw power and looks better at short than he did as an amateur. Canario has elite bat speed. Adams was signed away from college football but is more instinctive than most two-sport athletes. Most of the stuff he needs to work on is related to getting to his power.

Julio Rodriguez, RF, Seattle Mariners
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Alexander Canario, RF, San Francisco Giants
Jordyn Adams, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Jhon Torres, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Shervyen Newton, SS, New York Mets (full report)
Kevin Alcantara, CF, New York Yankees (full report)
Freudis Nova, SS, Houston Astros
Brice Turang, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (full report)
Connor Scott, CF, Miami Marlins (full report)

Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value
This is the group that produces the likes of Vidal Brujan and Luis Urias. Edwards is a high-effort gamer with 70 speed and feel for line drive contact. Marcano isn’t as stocky and strong as X, but he too has innate feel for contact, and could be a plus middle infield defender. Perez has great all-fields contact ability and might be on an Andres Gimenez-style fast track, where he reaches Double-A at age 19 or 20. Ruiz is the worst defender on this list, but he has all-fields raw power and feel for contact. He draws Alfonso Soriano comps. Palacios is the only college prospect listed here. He had three times as many walks as strikeouts at Towson last year. Rosario controls the zone well, is fast, and is a plus defender in center field.

Xavier Edwards, SS, San Diego Padres
Antoni Flores, SS, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Jose Devers, SS, Miami Marlins (full report)
Tucupita Marcano, SS, San Diego Padres
Wenceel Perez, SS, Detroit Tigers
Esteury Ruiz, 2B, San Diego Padres
Richard Palacios, SS, Cleveland Indians
Antonio Cabello, CF, New York Yankees (full report)
Cole Roederer, LF, Chicago Cubs (full report)
Jeisson Rosario, CF, San Diego Padres
Luis Garcia, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)
Simon Muzziotti, CF, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)

Corner Power Bats
Nevin will probably end up as a contact-over-power first baseman, but he might also end up with a 70 bat. He looked great against Fall League pitching despite having played very little as a pro due to injury. Lavigne had a lot of pre-draft helium and kept hitting after he signed. He has all-fields power. Apostel saw reps at first during instructs but has a good shot to stay at third. He has excellent timing and explosive hands.

Grant Lavigne, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Sherten Apostel, 3B, Texas Rangers
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Dylan Carlson, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Moises Gomez, RF, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Elehuris Montero, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Tyler Nevin, 1B, Colorado Rockies

College-aged Pitchers
It’s hard to imagine any of these guys rocketing into the top 50 overall. Rather, we would anticipate that they end up in the 60-100 range on next year’s list. Gilbert was a workhorse at Stetson and his velo may spike with reshaped usage. Singer should move quickly because of how advanced his command is. Lynch’s pre-draft velocity bump held throughout the summer, and he has command of several solid secondaries. Abreu spent several years in rookie ball and then had a breakout 2018, forcing Houston to 40-man him to protect him from the Rule 5. He’ll tie Dustin May for the second-highest breaking ball spin rate on THE BOARD when the Houston list goes up. We’re intrigued by what Dodgers player dev will do with an athlete like Gray. Phillips throws a ton of strikes and has a good four-pitch mix.

Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Zac Lowther, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Brady Singer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Bryan Abreu, RHP, Houston Astros
Daniel Lynch, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Wil Crowe, RHP, Washington Nationals (full report)
Josiah Gray, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Holloway, RHP, Miami Marlins (full report)
Tyler Phillips, RHP, Texas Rangers

Bounce Back Candidates
The Dodgers have a strong track record of taking severely injured college arms who return with better stuff after a long period of inactivity. That could be Grove, their 2018 second rounder, who missed most of his sophomore and junior seasons at West Virginia. McCarthy was also hurt during his junior season and it may have obscured his true abilities. Burger is coming back from multiple Achilles ruptures, but was a strong college performer with power before his tire blew.

Michael Grove, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jake McCarthy, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jake Burger, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Thomas Szapucki, LHP, New York Mets (full report)

Catchers
We’re very excited about the current crop of minor league catchers. Naylor is athletic enough that he’s likely to improve as a defender and he has rare power for the position.

Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Indians
Payton Henry, C, Milwaukee Brewers (full report)

Potentially Dominant Relievers
These names lean “multi-inning” rather than “closer.” Gonsolin was a two-way player in college who has been the beneficiary of sound pitch design. He started last year but was up to 100 mph out of the bullpen the year before. He now throws a four seamer rather than a sinker and he developed a nasty splitter in 2017. He also has two good breaking balls. He has starter stuff but may break in as a reliever this year.

Trent Thornton, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Dakota Hudson, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Colin Poche, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Trevor Stephan, RHP, New York Yankees (full report)
Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (full report)
Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago Cubs (full report)
Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mauricio Llovera, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)


Nationals Gain Upside with Brian Dozier

While much of the focus of the Nationals’ offseason has been the potential loss of Bryce Harper, the club has been one of the more active teams this winter. Their big move brought in Patrick Corbin. They also signed Anibal Sanchez and traded Tanner Roark. They fixed their biggest hole last season by trading for Yan Gomes and signing Kurt Suzuki to play catcher. They also added Kyle Barraclough and Trevor Rosenthal to improve their bullpen depth. With all of those moves, the Nationals were already going to have the best team in the division on paper, no matter who the Phillies signed. Despite that apparent lead, having missed the playoffs a year ago, the club filled it’s last obvious weakness by signing Brian Dozier to a one-year deal worth $9 million, per Jeff Passan.

While there are obvious concerns over the slow offseason and declining salaries, Dozier’s seemingly low contract is more a victim of circumstance than a league-wide issue. There have been a lot of second basemen available this winter, and not as many contending teams with holes. Add in Dozier’s disastrous 2018 season, particularly toward the end, and his market was going to be limited. The Rockies signed Daniel Murphy, and even if he plays first base, that seemingly puts Ryan McMahon at second. The Padres added Ian Kinsler as a stopgap. The Twins signed Jonathan Schoop. The A’s traded for Jurickson Profar. The Mets didn’t even really need a second baseman and they traded for Robinson Cano.

That just leaves a smattering of contending teams in the bottom half of our second base depth charts. The Angels don’t need to work too hard to justify giving David Fletcher a shot. Cleveland’s going to go with Jason Kipnis in the last year of his deal. That really just leaves the Rockies, who could go with McMahon, the Nationals, and the Brewers. The list of available second baseman along with Dozier includes DJ LeMahieu and Jed Lowrie, as well as Asdrubal Cabrera, and Josh Harrison. Utilityman Marwin Gonzalez can play some second base as well. That’s before we get to a trade market that might include Joe Panik, Whit Merrifield, and Jedd Gyorko. In our Top 50 Free Agent list, Kiley McDaniel correctly pegged Dozier for the one-year, $9 million deal he is receiving, though the crowd was a bit more optimistic, believing a multi-year deal worth more than $30 million would be possible. This is what Eric Longenhagen had to say about Dozier in that piece.

He didn’t miss any time due to the injury (and has still never been on the DL), but Dozier has acknowledged to the media that a right knee bone bruise — and the manner in which he compensated for it, mechanically — impacted his 2018 production. Dozier had the worst full big-league season of his career, slashing .215/.305/.391 and playing sluggish defense. The league-average line at second base in 2018 was just .254/.317/.395, so if there’s any dead-cat bounce in Dozier at all, he’s probably still an average regular going forward. Obviously, though, a return close to what he has shown for the last four years means he has a chance to be an All Star.

Dozier has also had minor back issues over the years, which has been known to sap some strength. Dozier’s reliance on homers means any decrease in power is going to stunt his overall production. As for what went wrong last year, Paul Sporer noted that Dozier’s plate discipline numbers were mostly unchanged, but Dozier’s home run to fly ball rate went way down. One thing slightly unusual about Dozier’s plate discipline numbers is that Dozier swung at fewer pitches out of the zone, yet his walk rate didn’t go up. He did make more contact on pitches out of the zone, and those pitches tend to elicit weaker contact, so it is possible his numbers were hurt a little by a small adjustment to not swing for the fences as much. His expected BABIP based on launch angle and exit velocity was about 20 points higher, but any contact on pitches out of the strike zone or batted-ball luck were relatively small issues compared to his lack of thump.

A quick look at his Statcast numbers on fly balls over the past two seasons shows the following:

Brian Dozier’s Fly Balls
Exit Velocity Launch Angle Distance
2017 95 MPH 37.3 335 ft.
2018 92 MPH 38.4 324 ft.

There’s not some big secret to explore here. Dozier just didn’t hit the ball as hard last season, so his fly balls didn’t go as far, and therefore Dozier’s home runs and ISO came down significantly. If we can chalk Dozier’s issues up to injuries that might resolve with an offseason of care and training, then Dozier is going to be a huge bargain for the Nationals. If any lingering issues follow him into next season, it’s possible we are just looking at the decline of a player in his 30s who has been selling out for pull power, which isn’t working as well anymore. Jeff Sullivan noted towards the end of 2017 that Dozier was going to the opposite field more often, and he made the natural assumption that this was an approach-based change to get better. However, Sullivan wasn’t quite sure the change was necessary. With another year in the books and similar spray charts in 2017 and 2018, it’s possible we are seeing a hitter who isn’t capable of pulling the ball as much rather than one choosing to be successful going the other way.

We don’t know which version of Dozier is going to show up next season. If he repeats his 2018, the Nationals should still have enough firepower to win the division. If he recovers some of his old form, he could help Washington be the best team in baseball. The Nationals won’t have to pay much for the opportunity to find out. The floor for players like LeMahieu and Lowrie is considerably higher than Dozier, but the former Twin is just one season removed a five-win campaign. He’ll get the opportunity to put last year behind him in a lineup that shouldn’t need his production. If he plays well, he could be in line for a much bigger contract a year from now.


Sunday Notes: Analytics Have Changed, Leadership Hasn’t Changed

Last Sunday’s column led with J.D. Martinez, whose non-quantifiable impact on the Red Sox lineup was widely lauded. Deeply enmeshed in hitting mechanics and theory, the veteran slugger was both a sounding board and lead-by-example influence on several of his teammates. That didn’t go unnoticed by people around the game.

“J.D. rightfully so got credit for doing that,” said Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell, one of three managers I broached the subject with at the Winter Meetings. “It’s an important part of being a teammate — being connected and sharing. A player’s eyes are probably on each other more than they are on the coaches. They have a way to help each other, just as much as coaches do. You want to foster that environment. It’s something all teams should try to do.”

Asked for an example of a positive influence on his own team, Counsell cited Ryan Braun. Responding to that same question, Oakland manager Bob Melvin named a player who may or may not be wearing an A’s uniform next year.

“Jed was the guy last year for us,” Melvin said of now-free-agent Jed Lowrie. “(He) understands mechanics. He understands launch angles and exit velocities. (He) was a nice kind of player/coach for us to help out Bushy (hitting coach Darren Bush) with some of our younger guys.” Read the rest of this entry »