The 2009 MLB draft was notable for numerous reasons, not the least of which was Mike Trout lasting until the 25th overall pick, where the Los Angeles Angels snagged him in one of the biggest steals in draft history. The Arizona Diamondbacks missed out on a pair of opportunities to take the future Hall of Famer — they picked back-to-back at 16 and 17 — and misfired on a few of their higher-round selections as well. Which isn’t to say they had a bad draft — anything but. Not only did a dozen of the players the D-backs drafted and signed go on to reach the big leagues, one of them was arguably as big of a steal as Trout. In the eighth round, with the 246th overall pick, they took Paul Goldschmidt out of Texas State University.

Tom Allison was the lead architect of Arizona’s 2009 draft. Serving as the club’s amateur scouting director under general manager Josh Byrnes, he not only oversaw the Goldschmidt pick, but also the selections of AJ Pollock, Chase Anderson, and Matt Davidson. There were disappointments — taking Bobby Borchering at 16 didn’t work out the way Arizona hoped — but that goes with the territory. The amateur draft is an inexact art, and a mix of hits and misses is inevitable, which is something a longtime scout like Allison knows all too well. Now a special assignment scout with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Allison addressed that very subject when looking back on 2009.

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David Laurila: To the extent that a draft can be predictable, did things more or less go as you expected, or were there a lot of curveballs? Your club obviously had a number of extra picks early on.

Tom Allison: “First, it’s always great looking back at drafts, especially ones that had so many of these different outcomes. But that’s a great question. With those extra picks, we had the attention of the agents and advisors. They knew that, ‘OK, the Diamondbacks are interested and we have an opportunity to get them in there.’ That presented itself a lot of times with accessibility, which is really impactful. We had pre-draft workouts. We were in a different timeframe than we are now — it was a non-Combine time — so having a pre-draft workout was a big thing. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The Brewers won 92 games in 2023, enough to coast to a division title with nine games to spare, though it didn’t really have much to do with their offense. After a respectable 2022 season, the team’s wRC+ dropped to 92, ahead of just six teams (four of which won fewer than 62 games). In a season that saw an upswing in baseball’s offensive environment, the Brewers only slugged .385, their worst showing in 30 years.

That’s not to say there weren’t bright spots, but of the four players who put up a wRC+ of at least 100 in a minimum of 100 plate appearances, two (Carlos Santana and Mark Canha) are no longer on the team. Of the two who still call Milwaukee home, William Contreras is the best bet to maintain his 2023 production, though one-year framing numbers did a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich had a nice little bounce back, but he’s still a 32-year-old coming off two-and-a-half far less impressive seasons. ZiPS is grumpier than Steamer with respect to Yelich, but even Steamer has him falling short of 3 WAR, and that’s in a scenario where he has nearly perfect health. Read the rest of this entry »

Victor Scott II has received a lot of attention lately, and for good reason. The 22-year-old outfielder swiped 94 bases this past season between High- and Double-A, then added 18 more representing the St. Louis Cardinals in the Arizona Fall League. Moreover, his left-handed stroke produced a .303/.369/.425 slash line over 618 plate appearances against Midwest League and Texas League pitching. Flying below the radar when he was taken in the fifth round of the 2022 draft out of West Virginia University, the speedster is now widely viewed as one of the most promising players in the Cardinals’ pipeline.

The focus the Atlanta native has received lately has understandably centered on his plus-plus wheels and his improved hit tool. Neither of those subjects was broached when I spoke to Scott over the phone in early December — this a few weeks before he graduated from WVU with a degree in Interdisciplinary Studies. Instead, we discussed his burgeoning music career. Scott is not only on the fast track to the big leagues, he is also an accomplished rapper.

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David Laurila: You’ve recorded a number of rap songs. Tell me about that.

Victor Scott II: “It’s something I can’t really do in-season, and I couldn’t really do at school, because I didn’t have a studio. Here at home, I can get in there with Quinn Carter — one of my best friends from back in the day — to kind of hang out and make music. It’s therapeutic. It allows me to get whatever off my mind, and also to be imaginative. It’s a cool little outlet, man. It’s great.” Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

This set of batters probably looks familiar because, well, apart from the Luis Arraez trade to the Marlins, this is pretty much the same collection of hitters the Twins have had available the last several years. Edouard Julien isn’t the exact same type of player as Arraez, but he more or less fulfills Arraez’s role of “interesting offensive talent who the Twins can play at second base, but would prefer not to.”

Can Byron Buxton stay healthy? Just sticking him at DH isn’t a satisfactory answer — one of the reasons a healthy Buxton is so valuable is because he has played a transcendent center field when he’s been able to. Playing DH, he’s basically just Jorge Soler, which has value, but not that star-level sizzle. Read the rest of this entry »

Like the wealthiest man in the grocery store, whose cart is so full of expensive foodstuffs that an extra block of aged cheese merely blends into the bill, the Dodgers have signed Teoscar Hernández. This deal allows them to fill the J.D. Martinez-shaped void in the lineup by replacing him with the other corner outfield/DH guy the mid-2010s Astros gave up on too early.

Hernández, 31, will make a sticker value of $23.5 million over his one-year contract, though — and you might want to make sure you’re sitting down for this one — the practical value of the deal will be lowered to roughly $20.4 million by deferrals. Hernández probably will not register as more than an afterthought in an offseason that brought in Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow. (I’m old enough to remember the 2000-01 free agent class being billed as: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Manny Ramirez, Mike Hampton… and also Darren Dreifort!) But Teoscar brings necessary right-handed pop to a lineup that could have used a little extra power, particularly from that side of the plate. Read the rest of this entry »

For the last two offseasons, the Mets have operated with shock and awe, signing every free agent that wasn’t nailed down en route to building a team that could trade blows with the Braves atop the NL East. As you may have heard, that didn’t exactly pan out. So this offseason, they’re taking a new tack with a string of interesting signings that play below the top of the market. That trend continued over the weekend, when the Mets signed Sean Manaea to a two-year, $28 million deal, as Jon Heyman first reported.

As Kyle Kishimoto noted in our free agent preview, Manaea spent 2023 swinging wildly between roles for a Giants team that needed pitching help all over the place. He was a starter, long reliever, setup guy, whatever the situation demanded. He performed adequately in that tough job, but when he opted out of his contract after the season, it seemed likely that he’d look for a full-time starting spot. That’s where he’ll slot in on the Mets, who have spent the offseason remaking a rotation that had a lot of holes to fill after 2023’s trade spree. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners and Rays had a busy Friday last week, combining to make three trades involving seven players. Seattle got things started with a three-player swap with the San Francisco Giants, shipping Robbie Ray to the Bay Area in exchange for Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani, and cash considerations. Then the M’s and the Rays exchanged José Caballero and Luke Raley, before Tampa Bay finished off the day by sending Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis for Richie Palacios. Both the Mariners and Rays dealt from areas of strength to address areas of need, giving both teams greater roster clarity as the offseason moves towards spring training.

Just two years ago, the three players involved in the first trade of the day would have garnered much bigger headlines. In 2021, Ray, Haniger, and DeSclafani combined to accumulate 9.4 WAR, with Ray winning the American League Cy Young award. In the two seasons since then, however, the trio has combined for just 3.3 WAR, largely thanks to a litany of injuries. Ray was completely healthy in 2022, but he wasn’t able to replicate his award-winning performance in his first season in Seattle and then made just a single start in 2023 before needing Tommy John surgery. Haniger has never been a model of health — he’s played just two full seasons in his seven-year career — and missed time with ankle, back, oblique, and forearm injuries the past two seasons. DeSclafani managed just five starts in 2022 thanks to a recurring ankle injury, then wore down towards the end of last year with shoulder fatigue and forearm inflammation. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

Even after committing something in the neighborhood of a billion dollars to bring in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, inspiring the chattering classes to bemoan the super team that’s buying a World Series — as if that would be possible in a sport as volatile in baseball — if you look at the Dodgers depth chart, you see an awesome team, but a rather ordinary awesome team. The Dodgers are solid everywhere, but when looking at the Braves, the natural comparison, they’re short in the projections in terms of their best player (Ronald Acuña Jr. practically laps the field in ZiPS), and the computer likes Austin Riley a lot better than the combination of Max Muncy and Miguel Vargas.

The weakest spot is likely left field, even with the addition of Teoscar Hernández, but it’s better than it looks. In the original version of this depth chart, left field was listed at 1.4 WAR rather than the current 1.8, but the total gain, once you calculate the domino effect of how the other positions change, combines for nearly a full win. Chris Taylor was an adequate stopgap, but the offensive workload of a corner outfielder is quite heavy and his .239/.326/.412 line over the last three years is not really what you want to see out there. In any case, one of the best things about Taylor is his versatility, and just sticking him in an outfield corner and calling it a day would be a bit like buying a Swiss army knife just to use the nail file. Signing Hernández makes it easier to make use of Taylor’s versatility and frees up Margot for more time in right field, with Mookie Betts available more often at second base. Hernández’s $20.4 million AAV is a bit steep in terms of rough $/WAR, but it’s hard to really overpay anyone on a one-year deal. Plus, the Dodgers need certainty more than dice rolls, and only $15 million of the deal is in 2024 salary, with the rest deferred.

You might be a bit disappointed with Ohtani’s projection as a DH, but it’s important to remember that his 180 wRC+ in 2023 can’t be assumed to be a baseline quite yet. As magical as he is, all players, from metahuman to Bill Bergen, are subject to the whims of the Roman god Mediorus, the deity of scales and balance and regression toward the mean, who I may have also just made up this minute.

Elsewhere, there are no real surprises. Betts projects well as a second baseman because, well, he’d project well doing anything in life, and Freddie Freeman and Will Smith receive the expected top-notch forecasts. ZiPS is a little cool on Gavin Lux in light of his lost 2023, but I can hardly quibble with that.

Pitchers

There has been quite a bit of upheaval here, more than just the additions of Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, and the eventual one of Ohtani. None of the pitchers in the rotation graphic last year return to the Dodgers in 2024 (remember, Tony Gonsolin is out with Tommy John surgery). It’s especially sad to see Clayton Kershaw no longer listed here, as he’s unsigned and likely to miss a huge chunk of the season after surgery, and there’s still a chance he decides to hang it up. Whether or not The Claw’s ever again in Dodger Blue — Game 1 of the NLDS is a bad place to leave it — he’s got my Hall of Fame vote.

Yamamoto’s projection may not seem particularly aggressive, but that’s in large part because projection systems know the attrition rate of pitchers. ZiPS has only given out three four-WAR projections for pitchers, and it doesn’t yet know that one of those hurlers (Sandy Alcantara) is already out for the season. Yamamoto does show up on the depth chart graphic past this threshold, but ZiPS tends to be more suspicious of general pitcher health than our depth charts. If Yamamoto isn’t a good bet to be a top starter, than very few pitchers are, whether they play in the US or Japan. Ohtani obviously won’t meet the pitching projection listed in the table below this season; it’s just there for the curiosity value.

There’s certainly some risk with the Dodgers. They have a lot of talented arms, but they have very little certainty in terms of who will be available, when, and for how long. If they manage to get five of Yamamoto, Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler, Gavin Stone, and Emmet Sheehan all in the rotation at the same time, this is a very dangerous unit. The Dodgers have been happy to assemble rotations on the fly, but while that has worked out in recent years, it’s no guarantee going forward.

ZiPS isn’t as high on the ‘pen as Steamer is. Joe Kelly’s projection is one of the biggest sources of disagreement between the two projection systems when it comes to pitchers. ZiPS sees a few warning signs, such as the occasional spikes in his walk rate and the fact that he’s entering his late 30s. It’ll be interesting to see which system is right, but I’m personally closer to Steamer than ZiPS on this one.

ZiPS does like the quartet of Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, and Alex Vesia, who will get most of the rest of the high-leverage innings. The computer isn’t in on Yency Almonte, but then again, Steamer’s not particularly enthralled either.

Right now, ZiPS sees the Dodgers as the second-best team in baseball, behind the Braves. But they’re not in different tiers; it’s not a 90/10 probability, but something more along the lines of 60/40. Many writers and teams have made the mistake of underestimating them in spots where they don’t look deep in the past. The Dodgers aren’t just a dangerous team, but a creative dangerous team, one with a shockingly good record of turning straw into gold, making them a deadly foe.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

Over the first weekend of 2024, the Colorado Rockies made their first foray into the major league free agent market. And heavens to Betsy, they are loaded for bear.

Catcher Jacob Stallings signed a one-year deal for $1.5 million, which will count as $2 million for CBT purposes thanks to a potential $500,000 buyout of his 2025 mutual option. (Not that anyone cares; the Rockies are close to $75 million short of hitting the lowest tax threshold.) Dakota Hudson will also make $1.5 million in base salary, with the potential to double his money with innings-based incentives. The former Mississippi State right-hander is due one more season in arbitration after this.

Both players had been non-tendered by their previous clubs in November. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an evaluation of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system who readers should consider “imminent big leaguers,” players who might reasonably be expected to play in the majors at some point this year. This includes all prospects on the 40-man roster as well as those who have already established themselves in the upper levels of the minors but aren’t yet rostered. I tend to be more inclusive with pitchers and players at premium defensive positions since their timelines are usually the ones accelerated by injuries and scarcity. Any Top 100 prospects, regardless of their ETA, are also included on this list. Reports, tool grades, and scouting information for all of the prospects below can also be found on The Board.

This is not a top-to-bottom evaluation of the Padres farm system. I like to include what’s happening in minor league and extended spring training in my reports as much as possible, since scouting high concentrations of players in Arizona and Florida allows me to incorporate real-time, first-person information into the org lists. However, this approach has led to some situations where outdated analysis (or no analysis at all) was all that existed for players who had already debuted in the majors. Skimming the imminent big leaguers off the top of a farm system will allow this time-sensitive information to make its way onto the site more quickly, better preparing readers for the upcoming season, helping fantasy players as they draft, and building site literature on relevant prospects to facilitate transaction analysis in the event that trades or injuries foist these players into major league roles. There will still be a full Padres prospect list that includes Robby Snelling and Braden Nett and all of the other prospects in the system who appear to be at least another season away. As such, today’s list includes no ordinal rankings. Readers are instead encouraged to focus on the players’ Future Value (FV) grades. Read the rest of this entry »