The Cubs signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal in December, hoping that the combination of improved health and a change of scenery could help the slugger rebound from a pair of dismal seasons in the wake of injuries to both his left leg and right shoulder. Though the 27-year-old center fielder started the season slowly, he’s since heated up and just completed his most productive calendar month since his MVP-winning 2019 season. He may not beall the way back to his award-winning form, but he’s in a much better place that he was in his final years with the Dodgers.

Though he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in Wednesday’s 2–1 loss to the Nationals, Bellinger is hitting .291/.364/.573 with seven homers and a 149 wRC+. He finished April with a 158 wRC+, his highest for any month in the past five seasons:

You’ll note the token representation of months from the 2020–22 seasons there (to be fair there were only two from 2020 due to the pandemic); I went to 11 on the list above just to include the last of those, as they’re the only ones in which Bellinger even hit at a league average clip. On the flipside, within the same span he had five months with at least 59 PA and a 72 wRC+ or worse, and three ranging from 83–94 in terms of wRC+. At his worst, he hit an unfathomable .118/.186/.215 for an 11 wRC+ in 102 PA in July 2021. Read the rest of this entry »

Things aren’t going well in Oakland at the moment. Ownership, after years of quiet quitting, is up and moving the team. (Or maybe not, if owner John Fisher and his confederates turn out to be worse at lobbying than they are at pest control.) That leaves a last-place club to play out the string in front of “SELL THE TEAM” banners, probably for multiple years to come. The most obvious simile for this situation would be something along the lines of “like the waning days of a loveless marriage,” but that would be an insult to loveless marriages.

Still, a few dozen unfortunates are obliged to put on the storied green and gold colors of the Athletics and perform baseball six days a week. And they’re trying, albeit not too successfully, to win. It could happen! All the time we see a team made up mostly of youngsters, or with a payroll out of the mid-90s, get hit by lightning and make a run at the playoffs. Frequently that has even been the A’s in recent years.

Unfortunately, this year’s Athletics probably needed five or six different lightning strikes to turn their 100-loss roster into a contender. One break the A’s needed — following on the team’s biggest offseason move — involved outfielder Esteury Ruiz. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays’ success has not exactly flown under the radar, what with a record-tying 13-game win streak to begin the season, the franchise’s longest winning streak in its 26-year history. Over the course of April, they rattled off another six-game winning streak and extended their opening home win streak to a modern major league-record 14. After taking the first two games of a home series against the unexpectedly dangerous Pirates, Tampa has found itself four games ahead of baseball’s next-best team at 25–6 — an incredible .806 winning percentage — along with far and away the league’s best run differential at +113, good for a margin of +3.6 runs per game. And the Rays are playing with the playful swagger of a team that knows just how good it is.

For a little context on what the Rays have achieved so far: their 23 wins through April were two more than any other team in the Modern Era (since 1901) before May — an accolade helped by modern scheduling, but impressive nonetheless. On a percentage basis, their .793 clip was the highest pre-May winning percentage since the 2001 Mariners went 20–5 (.800) to kick off their record-setting 116-win campaign. In the Modern Era, just five teams have managed higher winning percentages in March and April in at least 20 games. Read the rest of this entry »

In the beginning, there was nothing. Wait, no, that’s not right — in the beginning, there was Tommy Pham. Yeah, now we’re talking. In the beginning there was Tommy Pham. Then John Mozeliak said, “Let there be a trade,” and Pham decamped for Tampa Bay, San Diego, Cincinnati, Boston, and eventually New York. In exchange, the Cardinals got a sampler platter of minor prospects: Justin Williams, Roel Ramírez, and Génesis Cabrera.

Williams and Ramírez are long gone from the St. Louis organization, but Cabrera is still going strong. That might have oversold it coming into the year — in 157.1 innings across 142 games, Cabrera had compiled a 3.95 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 0.4 fWAR. That’s hardly an imposing line, but the Cardinals hardly had an imposing bullpen, so he fit solidly into the middle of that group heading into 2023.

He’s only pitched 11 times in 2023, but those 11 times have been revelatory. Nineteen of the 45 opponents he’s faced have struck out. Only three have walked. That’s no fluke, either; he’s so deceptive and so hard to square up that he’s recorded more called or swinging strikes than he has balls this year, by a count of 68 to 60.

That’s a huge divergence from Cabrera’s earlier career, when he struggled with both his command and with missing bats. From 2019 to 2022, he racked up 260 more called balls than called and swinging strikes. You can think of that gap as a crude measure of how much a pitcher can attack the zone or entice hitters to leave the zone without giving up too much contact. If you simply pound the strike zone with so-so stuff, you won’t get many called or swinging strikes. If you nibble ineffectually, you’ll run up a huge tally of called balls.
Read the rest of this entry »

Alex Verdugo has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over his last four games, the Boston Red Sox outfielder is 8-for-19 with four doubles and a pair of home runs, and two of his hits have been of the walk-off variety. Moreover, he’s swung a productive bat all season. Verdugo’s left-handed stroke has produced a .317/.381/.524 slash line and five long balls in 139 plate appearances. His wRC+ is a healthy 148.

The 26-year-old Tucson native has slashed .290/.346/.433 in his three-plus years wearing a Red Sox uniform, and to say that his performance has attracted a fair amount of scrutiny would be an understatement. That’s understandable. In February 2020, Boston acquired Verdugo, along with Connor Wong and Jeter Downs, in exchange for Mookie Betts and David Price.

Verdugo discussed his evolution as a hitter, which has included the realization that trying to hammer home runs is detrimental to his success, prior to Tuesday’s game at Fenway Park.

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David Laurila: This is your 10th professional season. Comparing now to then, how similar or different are you as a hitter?

Alex Verdugo: “I think I have the same mindset of what I’m trying to do. I’ve always been a guy that likes to hit the fastball to left and then pull the offspeed pitches. What’s changed throughout the years is how I deviate from my game plan. Back in the minors, back in the first couple of years, and even last year… I know my strengths, but I would be like, ‘You know what? I’m going to try to hit for power. I’m going to try to lift this. I’m going to try to pull a heater.’ Read the rest of this entry »

The loss of Jose Altuve to a broken thumb suffered during the World Baseball Classic has been a blow to the Astros, but while the team is off to an uncharacteristically slow start at 16-14, Mauricio Dubón has risen to the occasion while filling in for the eight-time All-Star. The 28-year-old infielder recently reeled off the season’s longest hitting streak, and on Monday exacted a bit of vengeance by collecting three hits that helped send his former team, the Giants, to defeat.

While playing for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals, Altuve was hit in the right thumb by Team USA’s Daniel Bard, suffering a fracture that required surgery to set. At the time, the Astros estimated that Altuve would need two months before resuming baseball activity, putting him on track for a late May or early June return. The expectation was that unless general manager Dana Brown could add a player from outside the organization in the waning days of spring training, Dubón and rookie utilityman David Hensley would cover the keystone during Altuve’s absence.

It felt like a big opportunity for a nearly-forgotten player. The Astros acquired Dubón from the Giants last May 14, in a straight-up trade for backup catcher Michael Papierski, who played just five games for San Francisco before being lost to the Reds on waivers. It was the third time in five and a half years Dubón had been dealt; after being drafted in the 26th round out of a Sacramento high school by Boston in 2013, the Red Sox included him as part of the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg swap with the Brewers in December ’16. Dubón played in the Futures Game the following summer but his progress to the majors was interrupted by a torn left ACL in May 2018. He topped out as a 45 FV prospect, no. 5 on the Brewers’ 2019 list, but played in just two games for the team before being sent to the Giants in a deadline swap that brought Drew Pomeranz to Milwaukee. Read the rest of this entry »

Bryce Harper is back. One hundred and sixty days ago — less than six months! — he had Tommy John surgery, repairing a torn elbow ligament he suffered last April. NBC Sports Philadelphia, who you’d think would have a good read on the situation, published an optimistic headline with an aggressive timetable: Harper could be swinging by mid-May and playing in major league games by the All Star break. It’s May 3 today.

Suffice to say that 160 days isn’t a lot of time. I have perishable goods in my fridge that might have been there when Harper went under the knife. As Jay Cuda noted, the White Sox hadn’t won two straight games all season (until last night) since Harper got a shiny (well, probably not literally) new ligament to replace his old one. That’s not how these timetables work.

Tommy John surgery makes players disappear for a while. They come back to a team that looks similar but not identical to the one they left behind. That’s technically true of the Phillies — Trea Turner is reprising his old role as Harper’s sidekick, Taijuan Walker is new in town, and the bullpen has turned over — but it still feels more or less like the team Harper left. A Philadelphia sports fan who was busy on Opening Day could tune into a Phillies game after the 76ers’ season is over and get confused. “Hey, wasn’t Harper getting TJ? What’s he doing in the lineup?” Read the rest of this entry »

Any time something crazy happens early in the season, such as the week that Adam Duvall was leading the league in WAR, I tend to dismiss it with a single word reply of “April.” But the calendar has now flipped, and the shower-month has become the flower-month, so it’s getting a bit harder to ignore the Pirates, standing at the top of the NL Central with a 20–9 record, a whopping 10 games above last season’s victor, the currently last-place Cardinals. Nearly 20% of the season is now done, and it’s probably time to talk about whether Pittsburgh is for real.

First off, going 20–9 is always an impressive run. Teams that do that aren’t always great teams, but they’re usually at least middling and only rarely actually bad. There have been exactly 1.21 craploads of 20–9 or better runs over the last 20 years, and only two with a run that solid, the 2021 Cubs and 2005 Orioles, finished with 75 wins or fewer. And while the Pirates had more than their share of basement-dwelling opponents (the average opponent has a .430 winning percentage), great performances in baseball tend to be in environments that are most conducive to those performances. The Yankees had the best 29-game run last year, at 24–5, with 21 of those 29 games coming against non-playoff teams.

Suffice it to say that the projection systems were generally not optimistic on the idea of the Pirates being contenders in 2023. Our preseason depth charts gave them a 3% chance to win the division and a 6.5% chance of making the playoffs. ZiPS, which liked the Cardinals better than the combined projections (a prognostication that’s not looking great right now), was even more down on Pittsburgh, with only a 0.7% shot at the NL Central and 1.8% for a postseason. These weren’t hopeless numbers, but they certainly left the Pirates as a longshot. But as of the morning of May 2, our projections now have the Pirates at 18.5% to win the division and 32.3% to make the playoffs. And the updated ZiPS projections for 2023 suggest a chaotic division if everyone’s somewhere around their median projection. When you take into account Pittsburgh’s hot start, the Cubs playing very well, St. Louis’ bleak April, and Milwaukee’s pitching injuries, ZiPS sees the NL Central as wide open:

The good news for Pirates fans is that the assumptions needed to get here are not particularly aggressive. Neither ZiPS nor our Depth Charts combined projections have decided that Pittsburgh is a great team, or even a good one. In fact, both methodologies still see them finishing below .500 — Depth Charts as a .467 team, ZiPS as a .490 team. Read the rest of this entry »

Tanner Bibee will be coming off a successful big-league debut when he takes the mound for the Cleveland Guardians tonight against the New York Yankees. Last Wednesday, the 24-year-old right-hander allowed six hits and one run with no walks and eight strikeouts over 5.2 innings versus the Colorado Rockies. Since starting his professional career last season, Bibee has a minor-league resume that includes a 10–2 record, a 2.13 ERA, and 186 strikeouts in 148 innings.

His ascent up prospect rankings has been swift. Unranked within the Cleveland system a year ago, the 2021 fifth-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton came into the current campaign No. 70 on our Top 100, with a 50 FV. As our lead prospect writer Eric Longenhagen wrote in February, “What a difference a year makes… Bibee now looks like a polished mid-rotation prospect.”

Bibee discussed his debut and the plus repertoire he brings with him to the mound when the Guardians visited Fenway Park this past weekend.

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David Laurila: You just made your big-league debut. How would you describe it?

Tanner Bibee: “It was a whirlwind. It was hectic. It was all of the above. Every single thing that you can think of — the emotions, all of the work I’ve put in to get here… it was all just crazy hectic.”

Laurila: You hit the first batter you faced with a pitch.

Bibee: “I got [Charlie] Blackmon 1–2 and then tried to really hump up on a heater. I probably missed my spot by about 30 inches. I yanked it and drilled him.”

Laurila: Basically, you overthrew the pitch.

Bibee: “100 percent. I mean, I do that sometimes. I’ll hump up and try to throw a fastball up towards the top, but the command wasn’t quite where I wanted it to be on that one. Obviously.” Read the rest of this entry »

The last thing the Yankees needed amid a slump that’s knocked them into last place in the AL East for the first time since April 26, 2021 was in injury to their best player. Yet that’s what they’re facing, because on Monday they placed Aaron Judge on the 10-day injured list due to a strain in his right hip. While the injury isn’t believed to be a severe one — indeed, the reigning AL MVP and the team waited the weekend to see if he felt good enough to return to the lineup — it comes at a time when New York has already been hit hard by injuries, magnifying the roster’s shaky construction.

Judge injured himself last Wednesday, on his 31st birthday. In the second inning, after collecting his second double of the game off the Twins’ Kenta Maeda and helping the Yankees build up a 5–0 lead, he attempted to steal third base. Catcher Christian Vázquez made a perfect peg to third baseman Willi Castro, who tagged Judge on his helmet as he made an awkward headfirst slide into the bag.

The initial concern about Judge was that he’d jammed his right wrist; cameras and tweets from the Target Field press box showed him flexing and shaking his right hand in the dugout afterwards. That he was serving as the team’s designated hitter that day created some suspense as to whether he’d take his next plate appearance. He did, and reached base two more times. But he departed after four innings and two plate appearances on Thursday against the Rangers due to discomfort in his right hip. “It was just a little grab in the hip area — after that headfirst slide… the whole right side has been a little locked up,” he said after that game. “The culmination of having that [slide] and a couple of swings today, I just really couldn’t get it loose.”

An MRI showed what the team described as a small strain near the top of his right hip. Judge didn’t play in any of the remaining three games of the series, forcing an already beaten-up team to play shorthanded. The Yankees lost all three, scoring just four runs and collecting a total of 16 hits. Read the rest of this entry »