For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The nice thing about the Brewers is that when you look at their depth chart, they’re not truly awful anywhere. That’s easier said than done; the worst Brewers generally project better than even the worst Astros or Dodgers. This is a very solidly built team that has a pretty high floor, probably higher than a year ago when we gathered for this exercise. What they’re missing on the offense is just a bit of pizzaz. I think we’re at the point where we have to accept that Christian Yelich is Just a Guy, which leaves the Brewers sorely missing a superstar bat. Everyone is at least OK and some are pretty good, but that big bat (or lack thereof) is what separates the Brewers from teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, and maybe the Mets when we look at the upcoming preseason projections.

If you glance at the depth chart, you might think that it’s Garrett Mitchell who ZiPS is big on, but it’s actually Sal Frelick, who ZiPS sees as having more upside. ZiPS thinks his contact skills will play in the majors fairly quickly, his long-term upside in terms of batting average is quite high, and he has just enough power to make him really interesting. ZiPS isn’t quite as excited about Brice Turang, but does seem him as being at least a passable starter at second, though a downgrade from Kolten Wong. Read the rest of this entry »

“Extend Devers!” they shouted from the streets and the rooftops and the churches and the public houses and the decks of fishing boats and the parking lot of the local Dunkin’ Donuts. “Extend Devers!” they cried for years, as Mookie Betts and Christian Vázquez were traded and Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, and J.D. Martinez left in free agency.

Surely this last stalwart of Boston baseball would not be allowed, encouraged even, to complete his career elsewhere. Rafael Devers is coming off the best offensive season of his career. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball; he’d be the best homegrown player the Red Sox had produced in a generation, had the Red Sox not also produced Betts.

And he’s staying put. News broke Wednesday night that the Red Sox and Devers have agreed to an 11-year, $331 million contract extension that will keep the color of his socks unchanged through the 2033 season. This deal supersedes the one-year, $17.5 million arbitration-avoiding settlement announced the day before. Your pleas have been heard, your prayers answered, your supplications fulfilled. Devers has been extended. Hallelujah. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe we shouldn’t doubt the Dodgers. They’ve won nine out of the last 10 NL West titles, and in the year they didn’t win the division, they won 106 games. They’re juggernauts by design, a team built to withstand the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. They draft well, develop well, spend a ton of money, and spend that money intelligently. They’re the closest thing baseball has to a dynasty these days, and given the inherent randomness of the playoffs, that’s not likely to change anytime soon.

That’s all true – and despite it all, I’m leaning towards doubting their chances in 2023. For the first time in years, I don’t have to jump through hoops to come up with reasons to do so. The Dodgers look like one of the best teams in baseball, but they no longer look, at least to me, like the absolute class of the league. It’s weird to think of it that way, but let’s talk through it together.

First things first: the Dodgers lost a ton of good free agents this year, just like they do every year. That’s simply the cost of doing business when you’re good as consistently as they are; your team will naturally be filled with great players approaching free agency. This year’s iteration of the team lost a whopping 21.3 WAR worth of 2022 production, the highest mark in the majors. The list of the top five teams when it comes to lost 2022 production is a who’s who of clubs trying to contend right now:

Read the rest of this entry »

The Nationals have found the left-handed bat that they were looking for. Yesterday, Bob Nightengale reported that Dominic Smith has signed a one-year deal that will send him down I-95 to Washington. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that the deal was for $2 million, with performance bonuses worth up to another $2 million. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, those bonuses relate to the number of plate appearances Smith makes. The Nationals 40-man roster is full, so they will need to make a move in order to clear space for Smith.

After snagging Jeimer Candelario on a one-year deal in November, the Nationals have now filled both corner infield spots with free agent bounce-back candidates. In Washington, Smith might finally get the one thing he’s always needed: time. After six big league seasons, the 27-year-old Smith has never had a regular position, and has topped 200 plate appearances just once.

Nightengale also reported what might be the most important part of this story: that Smith will be playing first base for the Nationals. Although the team non-tendered Luke Voit earlier in the offseason, that was not necessarily seen as a certainty. Manager Dave Martinez said during the Winter Meetings that he hoped first base would be the primary position of 2022 rookie sensation Joey Meneses. Over the course of his career, Smith has spent more innings in the outfield than he has at first. It’s at least reasonable to imagine that playing every day at his preferred position could make a real difference to a player who’s never had the luxury of stability. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

For so many who have practiced it, the knuckleball has been a pitch of last resort, an offering turned to only when a pitcher is hanging onto his career literally by his fingertips, as Jim Bouton described his situation in the introduction to Ball Four. Some have thrived with the pitch, with Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm riding it all the way to Cooperstown, but until R.A. Dickey mastered his so-called “angry knuckleball,” no such pitcher ever won the Cy Young Award. Read the rest of this entry »

The hot corner got a little hotter in the Valley of the Sun last Friday, as the Diamondbacks topped off a busy holiday season with the acquisition of a new third baseman. Evan Longoria is heading to Arizona on a one-year, $4 million contract with an additional $1 million in incentives. He figures to play most of his games at third base, with opportunities to DH as well.

These two sides are a good fit for several reasons, chief among them that Longoria simply wanted to play in Arizona. Heading into the offseason, he stated that he would only consider offers from the Giants, Rays or Diamondbacks (in other words, places he already had homes). It’s likely he lost some leverage by showing his hand so early — $4 million is a tad low for a player who posted 3.0 WAR over the last two seasons — but it’s hard to imagine Longoria is losing any sleep. He gets to play close to home (one of them, anyway) for a team that will give him a real opportunity to prolong his career. The D-backs aren’t true contenders, but if Longoria plays well enough, he’ll find himself in a new uniform by the trade deadline anyway. Read the rest of this entry »

Jean Segura is headed south; the two-time All-Star infielder, late of the Phillies, inked a two-year deal with the Marlins in the days after Christmas. Segura, who will turn 33 two weeks before Opening Day, hit .277/.336/.387 last year and .281/.337/.418 over four seasons in Philadelphia, where he played mostly second base. His contract will pay $6.5 million in 2023 and $8.5 million in ’24, with a $10 million club option for ’25 that comes with a $2 million buyout. That comes to some $17 million in guaranteed money, on what will probably be the last big free-agent contract of Segura’s career.

This is the sixth big league stop Segura has made after being part of four multi-player trades, the first of which came just three days after he made his big league debut. For those of you who view Guy Remembering as a holy sacrament, here is a partial list of players who have either been traded for or with Segura in the past 10 seasons: Zack Greinke, Isan Díaz, Aaron Hill, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Ketel Marte, J.P. Crawford, and Carlos Santana. Consider how numerous and how significant those players’ other trades have been (Díaz for Christian Yelich, Greinke for most of the 2014–15 Royals, just to name two), and we could get quite a bit of editorial mileage out of Jean Segura’s Web of Trades.

For better or worse, that is not this post. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

There are certainly some weaker spots in the Dodgers’ offense, and a bit less depth than usual, but like the Astros, as long as the top tier of the offense stays relatively intact, this group will still score a serious number of runs. Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts remain in the ultra-elite at their positions, and woe be unto anyone that underestimates these players. Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas, and various fill-ins are also solid parts of the lineup. ZiPS is relatively bullish at DH; it sees J.D. Martinez as having a little more left in him, and Smith filling in doesn’t hurt given his potent bat and the fact that Los Angeles has one of the best backup catchers around in Austin Barnes.

Where ZiPS remains concerned is the non-Mookie outfield positions. Trayce Thompson did terrific work in 2022, and there’s a lot to like about James Outman, but ZiPS is definitely not sold on them necessarily being plan Bs. The LF/CF mix of Thompson, Outman, leftover infielders, Jason Heyward, and a dash of JDM and maybe Bradley Zimmer feels a lot more like the backup plan rather than the one you start April with. It really feels like there should have been a big offseason addition at at least one of these positions.

In the high minors, the Dodgers have their usual array of Interesting Dudes, with ZiPS being especially intrigued by Jorbit Vivas and, to a lesser extent, Andy Pages. Outside of Diego Cartaya, it just doesn’t feel that there are as many huge-upside guys as there usually are, and the system feels a bit light there. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but here at FanGraphs we enjoy the occasional number. Even our logo has its own bar graph. Today our topic is competitive runs, a statistic that rarely gets the love and appreciation it deserves, due to the fact that it’s mostly made up. Competitive runs is a classification created for Statcast. In order to measure average sprint speed, you need a pool of plays when players will presumably be running their hardest:

Competitive runs are essentially just the sample size. When you go to Baseball Savant’s leaderboard, the players are always sorted from fastest to slowest. However, you can also sort by competitive runs, and I can never resist. All season long, one player was absolutely trouncing the field:

Amed Rosario is the grand champion of competitive runs. The difference between Rosario in first place and Brandon Nimmo in second place is the same as the difference between Nimmo and Jeff McNeil in 34th place. I’m sure Nimmo takes some solace in knowing that he’s the undisputed leader of the non-competitive run. Whether it’s a walk or a hit by pitch, the dude straight up loves scampering to first base for his own particular reasons:

Turning our attention back to Rosario: It’s not as if he’s just racking up competitive runs as a counting stat. He also leads the league on a rate basis, no matter which rate you choose:

I don’t know about you, but I think this is incredibly fun. Competitive runs is an incidental statistic. It’s just scaffolding for another stat, but there’s one person who plays baseball like competitive runs is his own personal pinball machine. The other reason I love it is that even though competitive runs exists only to serve a higher master, it’s still a descriptive stat in its own right. A player’s competitive runs total tells you plenty about the way they play the game. Read the rest of this entry »