I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t understand the Tampa Bay Rays. I don’t understand how they win as many games as they do. They’re definitely good, but it never feels like they should be as good as they are, or recently have been. But at a certain point, if they are consistently better than expected, I’m the one in the wrong and it’s on me to try to understand.

The offense I get. The current American League leader in runs scored is a little over their skis, as they hold that lead despite ranking sixth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging (they’re fourth in team wRC+ and fifth in OPS). That’s mostly due to the fact that as a team they have greatly improved results with runners on base compared to when they’re empty. That’s more likely luck-related than some kind of mysterious clutch skill they possess, but what the Rays do have is monstrous depth. Nobody in the lineup is going to garner MVP consideration, but their ability to almost never throw out a lineup with dead innings is unmatched in baseball thanks to a roster filled with average or better players. Just look at the Rays compared to the rest of their AL East competition:

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Eli Morgan has “a bugs-bunny changeup.” That’s how the 25-year-old rookie right-hander’s signature offering was described when it was suggested that I interview him for the Learning and Developing a Pitch series. Delivered at an average velocity of 75.1 mph, Morgan’s changeup is the slowest among pitchers who have worked at least 40 innings (not including Seattle’s Paul Sewald, who per StatCast has thrown just one changeup all season).

Cleveland’s eighth-round pick in the 2017 draft, Morgan has made 14 starts and has a 5.48 ERA and a 5.01 FIP to go with 68 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. He’s thrown his changeup — a pitch he described in detail this past Sunday — 22.4% of the time.

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Eli Morgan: “I started out mainly fastball/breaking ball, and then my senior year of high school I began developing my changeup. I’d thrown a splitter — that was my changeup for my first couple years of high school — but I figured that probably wasn’t great for my arm going forward. At the time, there was talk of Masahiro Tanaka having issues with his elbow because of the splitter, and that kind of turned me off of that pitch. I decided to go to a regular circle change.

“When I got to [Gonzaga University] they told me that if I wanted to pitch, let alone be a starter, I needed to have a good changeup. That was a big thing up there, so I started throwing it a lot more and got comfortable with it.

“Because I throw a four-seam fastball, I throw a four-seam changeup. That’s something one of my pitching coaches mentioned: ‘Make sure it comes out with the same seams as your fastball.’ That’s what I went with, and I had pretty good command of it right from the start. Over time, I began getting more movement on it, getting more fade. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Analyst, Research and Development

Description:
Support the Baseball Operations R&D group’s efforts to analyze and provide data, statistics and other baseball-related information. The ideal candidate combines a strong background of technical skills with an understanding of baseball research concepts and modern gameplay strategies. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Senior Analyst, Baseball Research & Development

Summary:
The Washington Nationals are seeking a senior analyst to join their Baseball Research & Development team. The role focuses on using the tools of data science to derive insights from baseball datasets to support player evaluation, player development, roster construction, and in-game strategy. The senior analyst will work collaboratively with members of Baseball R&D and baseball operations. Candidates should be passionate about both baseball and statistical analysis.

The Washington Nationals are committed to creating a diverse environment and are proud to be an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability or veteran status. Read the rest of this entry »

On paper, Glenn Otto and A.J. Alexy have a lot in common. For one thing, they both found their way into the Rangers system as key prospects in packages exchanged for blue-chip major leaguers – Alexy in 2017 as part of the deal that sent Yu Darvish to the Dodgers, and Otto in this year’s Joey Gallo trade. Moreover, they’re both righties who work exclusively from the stretch and feature a low-90s fastball. And at the end of last month, following a spat of positive COVID tests that depleted the Texas rotation, they added one more shared accomplishment, both making their big-league debuts within three days of one another.

Even their lines in their respective debuts look strikingly similar, with each pitcher throwing five innings of scoreless baseball. But drilling down just a bit further reveals the important differences between the two hurlers, and by extension, their distinct paths to success as major leaguers.

Let’s start with their mechanics. I mentioned above that both Otto and Alexy pitch exclusively from the stretch, having eliminated their windups during their time in the minors. But in Alexy’s case, that isn’t the only obvious change he’s made to his delivery since being drafted out of high school in 2016. As Eric Longenhagen has noted, he’s shortened his arm action, eliminating the violence it once featured.

Here’s a look at Alexy from March 2019:

And here’s one from this past Monday:

Comparing the two side-by-side, the changes to his arm action become unmistakeable. I’ve added freeze frames here to isolate the point at which his arm is at its very lowest and make it even more obvious:

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Louis Head has had a storybook season. Without a team during last year’s pandemic summer, the rookie right-hander was working a sales job, his dreams of reaching the big leagues seemingly in the review mirror. Nearly a decade after being taken by Cleveland in the 18th round of the 2012 draft, he thought his career was over. Then the Tampa Bay Rays came calling.

Head was signed off the scrap heap this past February, and on April 25, two days after celebrating his 31st birthday, he made his major league debut. The Katy, Texas native has gone on to appear in 20 games with the Rays since then — he’s also seen action in 24 games with Triple-A Durham — logging a 2.93 ERA and a 3.53 FIP over 27-and-two-thirds innings. His slider has played a big role in his Cinderella ascent. Developed since joining his new team, the pitch has helped fuel one of the better success stories of the 2021 season.

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David Laurila: You’re a 31-year-old rookie. How were you able to finally take that final step and reach the big leagues? Was pitching development part of it?

Louis Head: “I think it was mostly about there being an opportunity here. We had some guys get hurt early on in the season, and it opened up some doors for me. That didn’t really happen in the past with other organizations. I felt like I had thrown well in the past, especially for Cleveland, and I could have been a guy they brought up. But those opportunities never happened.

“Development-wise, when I did get here, working with the analytical team, and with [pitching coach] Kyle Snyder, we were really able to develop my slider into a major weapon. Before, it was just kind of a get-me-over pitch. Now it’s a legit put-away pitch, and that’s made a world of difference. Them having confidence in me has been a huge part of my success, as well.”

Laurila: Why were you able to turn the corner with your slider here, and not with Cleveland, the Dodgers, or the Mariners? Read the rest of this entry »

When the Braves signed Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies to phenomenally team-friendly contracts before the 2019 season, two distinct possibilities loomed. First, the team could bank the money they saved and put out a good team at a discounted price. Second, they could reinvest those savings and attempt to put together a great team. Which they chose would say a lot about how the team planned on operating long-term.

The question is no longer open. The Braves have overcome a season-ending injury to Acuña to surge to the top of the NL East, and while the Phillies and Mets continue to nip at their heals, they’re well on their way to a fourth straight division title. They’ve done so thanks to some new young contributors — Austin Riley and Ian Anderson have come into their own this year. They’ve made some savvy signings and trades — Charlie Morton has been their best pitcher this year, and Jorge Soler has been excellent since joining the team.

Now, the Braves are making moves to prolong their stay atop the division. In late August, they signed Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year extension. They followed that up by signing Morton to a one-year deal (both contracts have team options tacked on). Let’s take a look at both of those deals, as well as how they affect the team’s outlook for next year and beyond.

Signing d’Arnaud to an extension — two years and $16 million with a team option for a third year — was hardly an obvious move for the team. He missed the majority of the season after tearing a ligament in his thumb in May. He’s hit well since his return, but even so, his seasonal line works out to an 84 wRC+. Combine that with solid receiving, and the total package works out to a roughly average catcher.

What made the Braves so eager to lock d’Arnaud up? His replacements fell well short of that average catcher bar. On the year, Atlanta’s catcher position has produced -1.4 WAR, the worst mark in the majors. It’s not an individual problem; a huge array of catchers have combined to weigh the position down:

Relative to that mess, d’Arnaud is a huge improvement. That’s not to say that Contreras won’t figure it out, or that Vogt isn’t a capable backup. But for a team with an embarrassment of riches at most positions, giving away so much value at catcher doesn’t make sense. It gets worse: the list of free agent catchers this offseason is nasty, brutish, and short. Yan Gomes and Martín Maldonado are the headliners, and it gets worse from there. Miss signing your target, and you might be in for a long offseason. Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks before the trade deadline, I shared a depressing series of projections for the Mets based on Jacob deGrom’s health. The team’s ace, who spent much of the early going making a run at Bob Gibson’s modern ERA record, had been sidelined by forearm pain and tightness, though he was reportedly returning soon. Still, you never know with either pitcher injuries or the Mets, so I decided to run some numbers on what New York’s fortunes would look like with either minimal or no deGrom. The results were … less than reassuring for the folks in Queens.

Me: ZiPS, without knowing precisely what deGrom's outlook is, would you say it's time for Mets fans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

ZiPS: Yes I would, Dan. pic.twitter.com/teimAJsmak

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) July 18, 2021

The “worst-case scenario” had the Mets retaining a 37% shot of making the playoffs; that turned out to be excessively sunny. A team that once held a 55–48 record and a four-game lead in the NL East as July turned to August is now in tatters, with a 14-21 record since then and trailing both Atlanta and Philadelphia in the division. As for deGrom, he had a setback not long after the deadline and still hasn’t returned to the active roster (and may not return at all this season). As of Tuesday morning, New York’s chances are down to 6.8% in our projected standings, and ZiPS is barely more bullish at 7.1%. The Mets don’t need much to go wrong to end up playing golf in October.

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The Learning and Developing a Pitch series returned this summer after being on a year-long hiatus due to the pandemic. Each week, we’ll hear from three pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features a pair of right-handers, Joe Barlow and Bailey Ober, and a southpaw, Alex Young, on one of their breaking balls.

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Joe Barlow, Texas Rangers

“I was a fastball-curveball guy until last year. The pandemic happened, then I went to Driveline to see if there was an opening for a better pitch… not even a better pitch, just any pitch in general to add to the repertoire. That way, if my curveball wasn’t on, I wouldn’t just be throwing fastballs.

“I played with changeups, two-seamers, sliders, and cutters. The pitch that I could seemingly best repeat was the slider. Even though it wasn’t good, it seemed like there was an opportunity to grow on that and get it to be a pitch that I could use. So, I went into the offseason and started throwing it. It was meant to be a third pitch — behind the curveball, behind the fastball — but I ended up getting a good feel for it and now it’s almost 50-50 with the fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

I am not going to beat around the bush: Luis Castillo had a miserable start to the season. On Opening Day against the Cardinals, he allowed 10 runs (eight of which were earned) and recorded zero strikeouts in just three and a third innings of work. He bounced back about a week later against Pittsburgh, tossing seven innings with five strikeouts versus one walk without surrendering a run. But despite that showing, Castillo’s Opening Day struggles proved to be more than a blip on the radar for a pitcher who ranked among the top 20 in baseball over the three seasons prior to 2021. At the beginning of May, Castillo still had an ERA above six (6.07); it would not dip below that mark until his June 15 start against Milwaukee. His ERA peaked (apart from the stretch between his first and second start) at 7.61 on May 23. As of this writing, his ERA is 4.20; he has accumulated 3.0 WAR over 163 innings, placing him 26th in the majors among qualifiers.

So what has changed? Back on May 18, Justin Choi wrote about Castillo’s performance through his first eight starts, attempting to diagnose what plagued the Reds right-hander. Justin first looked at Castillo’s changeup, which had long been his most effective offering but which was generating far fewer whiffs than before. Justin found that the pitch was dropping more than it had in the past, though Castillo was still able to locate it just below the lower edge of the strike zone. The rest of Castillo’s repertoire (a sinker, four-seamer, and slider), on the other hand, was being placed right down the pipe. Justin concluded that the location of Castillo’s changeup were so different from that of the rest of his pitches that batters were either laying off the changeup or swinging at the few that landed closer to the heart of the zone.

Since Justin published his analysis, Castillo has compiled a 3.15 ERA and ranks 10th in WAR. Let’s try to locate the difference. Year-over-year, his pitch mix is largely the same:

Read the rest of this entry »