How the New York Yankees choose to deploy Clay Holmes throughout what they hope will be a long postseason run is uncertain, and the same is true for how he’ll perform in whichever role he assumes. The 31-year-old right-hander had a career-best 30 saves this season, but he was also charged with an big league-worst 13 blown saves. Displaced as the team’s closer by Luke Weaver in September, Holmes logged just one save in the season’s final month, that in the club’s last game.

His overall numbers were solid. Over 67 appearances comprising 63 innings, the sinkerballer put up a 3.14 ERA, a 3.02 FIP, and a 25.1% strikeout rate. He also killed a lot of worms, as evidenced by a 65% groundball rate that ranked second-highest among hurlers to throw at least 50 innings, behind only Tim Hill’s 68.2%.

Inducing groundballs has been Holmes’ M.O. ever since he debuted with the Pirates in 2018. He has a career groundball rate of 66.3%, with a high-water mark of 75.8% in 2022, his first full season in pinstripes. (The veteran reliever was acquired by New York from Pittsburgh in July 2021 in exchange for Diego Castillo and Hoy Park.)

As for playoff experience, his résumé is promising. While past performance is by no means a future guarantee, Holmes has nonetheless allowed just three hits over eight innings in six postseason appearances. Given that — and his 74 saves over the past three regular seasons — the 6-foot-5 hurler is battle tested when it comes to late-inning opportunities.

Holmes talked about his signature pitch, and how his approach hasn’t changed much over the years, when the Yankees visited Fenway Park in mid-September.

———

David Laurila: You spent 10 years in the Pirates system before coming to New York. In terms of pitching philosophy — including what was emphasized in the development process — how different was Pittsburgh compared to here?

Clay Holmes: “I think ‘different’ is the key word. The onset of technology has happened pretty fast. To compare what you consider’ best’ and ‘right’ today to ‘best’ and ‘right’ when I was first drafted, you’re talking about two completely different atmospheres and settings in terms of where the game is. Read the rest of this entry »

Tuesday afternoon, Josh Hader took the mound at the start of the ninth inning. His Houston Astros were losing 3-0 to the Detroit Tigers in the first game of their three-game Wild Card series. Riley Greene smashed a one-hopper over the right field fence for a double, but Hader retired the other three batters he faced and departed with the three-run deficit still intact.

This was strange! That’s not how teams use their closers. It felt weird right away – to the broadcasters calling the game, to the chatters who flooded us with questions about it, and also to me. And it felt consequential the next day, too, when Hader was summoned for his usual job. This time, the Astros were tied, and there were runners on first and second with two away in the bottom of the eighth. It was the biggest spot in the playoffs for the Astros. Hader walked Spencer Torkelson on four pitches, then threw a fastball right down the middle that Andy Ibáñez tattooed for a bases-clearing double. That made it 5-2 Tigers, and just like that, Houston’s season was over.

If you want to, there’s an easy through-line to trace here. Hader made a low-leverage appearance, and then he had to pitch again on no rest. He didn’t have his best stuff in that second game, so he paid the price. Cause and effect, simple as that. Read the rest of this entry »

For eight innings on Thursday night, the New York Mets’ bats barely spoke above a whisper. Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Brewers, the ninth inning was the charm in Game 3, as the Mets loudly ended the Brew Crew’s 2024 season with a 4-2 win, largely thanks to a dramatic opposite-field homer from Pete Alonso.

The climactic action may have involved a trio of round-trippers, but for six innings, we got a classic pitchers’ duel between two starters with very different styles. Starring for the Mets was Jose Quintana, who played the crafty veteran lefty trope to perfection here, throwing leisurely fastballs and sinkers where hitters could neither drive them or ignore them, while mixing in a healthy dose of changeups and curves that threatened the dirt.

ZiPS was a bit worried about how Quintana matched up against the Brewers coming into the game; while he’s maintained enough of a reverse platoon split over a long career to be confident in it, Milwaukee has a lot of right-handed hitters who can make a southpaw’s evening unpleasant in a hurry. But William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins went hitless, and ultimately it was the lefties who provided most of the team’s offense. It certainly wasn’t from lack of trying; Brewers hitters offered at 60% of Quintana’s fastballs, including more than half of the ones thrown out of the zone. What’s more, they connected with every Quintana fastball they swung at, but it only resulted in two hits. Quintana didn’t throw a single fastball for a called strike all evening. Read the rest of this entry »

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Baseball Scientist
Senior Analyst, Baseball Analytics
Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Baseball Scientist

Location: Fort Myers, FL, United States

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking a forward-thinking Baseball Scientist to drive the development and application of innovative biomechanics systems aimed at improving on-field performance and injury risk mitigation. This role will involve the collection, processing, analysis, and reporting of motion capture data, as well as the development of custom software tools and pipelines to streamline these processes. The Baseball Scientist will collaborate with various stakeholders including Strength & Conditioning, Medical, and Player Development to integrate biomechanical insights into training and game strategies and will work to evolve the position beyond just operating the lab by creating scalable systems and contributing to educational initiatives.

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Baseball Sciences department leverages cutting-edge research, data, and technology to enhance player performance, development, and overall team success. By integrating principles from biomechanics, sports science, data analytics, and artificial intelligence, the department plays a critical role in driving innovation on and off the field. The team works closely with coaches, medical staff, strength & conditioning experts, and front-office personnel to develop and implement evidence-based strategies that improve player health, maximize athletic potential, and optimize in-game performance. The Baseball Sciences department is committed to pushing the boundaries of sports science in baseball, putting the Red Sox at the forefront of technological and analytical advancements in the sport.

RESPONSIBILITIES

• Manage the day-to-day operations of the biomechanics lab, including scheduling data collection sessions, coordinating with athletes and staff, and ensuring proper data storage and processing protocols are followed.
• Develop custom software tools and data pipelines using languages such as Python, R, C/C++, and SQL to automate data processing, analysis, and reporting.
• Create scalable systems that allow coaches, coordinators, analysts, and office personnel to effectively leverage biomechanical data and insights throughout the organization.
• Contribute to internal educational initiatives to ensure that relevant stakeholders understand biomechanical principles, their relevance to player health and performance, limitations, and practical applications within baseball.
• Continuously evaluate and improve biomechanical data collection and analysis processes, staying up to date with the latest technologies and best practices in the field.

COMPETENCIES

• Demonstrated biomechanics data collection experience with both marker-based and markerless motion capture systems.
• Strong coding skills in languages such as Python, R, SQL, and C/C++, with experience developing custom software tools and data pipelines.
• Previous experience working directly with coaches and/or athletes, with the ability to effectively communicate complex biomechanical concepts to non-technical audiences.
• Formal undergraduate and graduate-level education in biomechanics, computer science, or a related field (i.e., MS, MA, Ph.D.) is preferred.
• Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.
• Passion for leveraging technology and data to drive innovation in sports performance and injury prevention.
In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Senior Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Location: Boston, MA, United States

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
Baseball Analytics supports the decision-making processes throughout Baseball Operations, including Player Acquisition, Player Development, and Player Optimization. Core responsibilities include predictive modeling, long-term research, report creation, and delivering the output of one’s work in a clear and digestible manner.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox seek a Senior Analyst for the club’s Baseball Analytics department to develop, evaluate, and optimize predictive models that enhance decision-making across all aspects of Baseball Operations. The Senior Analyst will collaborate closely with the Baseball Analytics team and other Baseball Operations stakeholders to influence player personnel decisions and strategic initiatives. As a senior member of the team, the Senior Analyst will help shape the data strategy of the department influencing team growth and keeping the group on the cutting edge of predictive data science. This role offers a unique opportunity to apply advanced statistical techniques and data science to shape the team’s future direction.

The successful candidate will possess excellent analytical skills, a deep understanding of baseball, and the ability to communicate technical concepts to non-technical audiences effectively. The specific role, level, and compensation package will be tailored to the selected candidate’s qualifications and experience.

RESPONSIBILITIES

• Design and maintain robust predictive models and data pipelines to generate insights for player evaluation, acquisition, development, and performance optimization. 
• Craft compelling written reports and data visualizations to effectively communicate complex analyses to diverse audiences, including both technical specialists and Baseball Operations leadership. 
• Partner with the Baseball Systems team to seamlessly integrate new analytical findings into team applications and proactively identify and address data quality issues. 
• Continuously monitor and evaluate cutting-edge analytics and research from public and academic spaces to recommend innovative ideas, methodologies, and technologies that can enhance on-field performance. 

COMPETENCIES

• Understanding of modern statistical and machine learning methods and an advanced proficiency with popular data science languages and libraries. 
• Practical understanding of how to approach research questions to drive actionable insights. 
• Able to visualize, present and disseminate analyses to a diverse group of stakeholders (leadership, coaches, players, scouts, etc.) in a clean, intuitive, and engaging way. 

ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

• PhD or master’s degree in a quantitative field (such as statistics, engineering, applied mathematics, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, computer vision, or operations research) or equivalent professional experience. 
• Proficiency in SQL and programming languages such as R or Python. 
• A passion for baseball and a strong desire to contribute to building a championship-winning team. 

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Location: Boston, MA, United States

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
Baseball Analytics supports the decision-making processes throughout Baseball Operations, including Player Acquisition, Player Development, and Player Optimization. Core responsibilities include predictive modeling, long-term research, report creation, and delivering the output of one’s work in a clear and digestible manner.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox seek an Analyst for the club’s Baseball Analytics department to develop, evaluate, and optimize predictive models that enhance decision-making across all aspects of Baseball Operations. Operating in a dynamic and intellectually stimulating environment, the Analyst will collaborate closely with the Baseball Analytics team and other Baseball Operations stakeholders to influence player personnel decisions and strategic initiatives. This role offers a unique opportunity to apply advanced statistical techniques and data science to shape the team’s future direction.

The successful candidate will possess strong analytical skills, a deep understanding of baseball, and the ability to communicate technical concepts to non-technical audiences effectively. The specific role, level, and compensation package will be tailored to the selected candidate’s qualifications and experience. Applications are encouraged from individuals with varying levels of expertise in the field.

RESPONSIBILITIES

• Design and maintain robust predictive models and data pipelines to generate insights for player evaluation, acquisition, development, and performance optimization. 
• Craft compelling written reports and data visualizations to effectively communicate complex analyses to diverse audiences, including both technical specialists and Baseball Operations leadership. 
• Partner with the Baseball Systems team to seamlessly integrate new analytical findings into team applications and proactively identify and address data quality issues. 
• Continuously monitor and evaluate cutting-edge analytics and research from public and academic spaces to recommend innovative ideas, methodologies, and technologies that can enhance on-field performance. 

COMPETENCIES

• Understanding of modern statistical and machine learning methods and an advanced proficiency with popular data science languages and libraries. 
• Practical understanding of how to approach research questions to drive actionable insights. 
• Able to visualize, present and disseminate analyses to a diverse group of stakeholders (leadership, coaches, players, scouts, etc.) in a clean, intuitive, and engaging way. 

ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

• PhD or master’s degree in a quantitative field (such as statistics, engineering, applied mathematics, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, computer vision, or operations research) or equivalent professional experience. 
• Proficiency in SQL and programming languages such as R or Python. 
• A passion for baseball and a strong desire to contribute to building a championship-winning team. 

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Associate – Baseball Operations
Associate – International Scouting Strategy
Associate (Intern) – Baseball Research and Development

Associate – Baseball Operations

Job Description
As part of the Baseball Operations Department, the Associate Baseball Operations will provide support to the Milwaukee Brewers’ efforts primarily in the areas of player information gathering and distribution.

Core duties for this role include, but are not limited to:

• Perform analysis on assigned player targets
• Maintain updated coverage of publicly available player information from online sources 
• Assist with Major League Rules compliance and economic research as assigned
• Review, edit, and upload scouting video to the Club’s proprietary player information system

The ideal candidate will be pursuing or already completed a bachelor’s degree from four-year college or university and 1 – 3 years of relevant experience; applicable experience in a baseball-related capacity strongly preferred.

Our Team
The Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Operations department oversees the club’s efforts to identify and acquire championship caliber talent from all available avenues. We strive to leverage all sources of information – both objective and subjective – in our quest to accurately assess talent and value. Our goal is to steer the club toward decisions that maximize our opportunity to win the World Series. In this role, you will be given the opportunity to work with other dedicated individuals to materially impact player acquisition decisions across the spectrum of professional baseball.

Our Pitch
You come here to make a difference. We are a purpose-led organization, focused on building an inclusive and engaging culture that fosters excellence, collaboration and ingenuity. We strive to be a model employer and cultivator of talent, empowering our teams to drive innovation through the inclusion of diverse thoughts, ideas and perspectives. We operate at the highest standard of excellence, investing in the development of our staff across all levels and embracing differences through a culture of respect and understanding.

We are proud to offer a highly competitive perks and benefits package including:

• League wide medical insurance plan
• 401(K) match and an additional annual contribution from the Club
• Collaborative recognition program and incentives
• Online educational platform for personal and professional development
• Employee Resource Groups
• Paid time off for volunteering
• Year-round diversity, equity and inclusion training and development
• Brewers Home Game tickets, promotional giveaways and other discounts!

For more information about our Crew, other benefits and insight into our Club culture please visit our Careers Page.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Associate – International Scouting Strategy

Job Description
As part of the International Scouting department, The Associate – International Scouting Strategy will be learning about and assisting the Milwaukee Brewers player acquisition department in the foreign amateur and professional spaces in an office-based role. This position will support the day-to-day functions of the International Scouting department.

Core duties for this role include, but are not limited to:

• Assess and evaluate scouting coverage strategy and provide evidence-based recommendations to department leadership
• Conduct research projects with respect to market timing and market pressures in the International free agent market to inform club strategy
• Synthesize research findings of the department and present them to stakeholders and the scouting staff, where appropriate 

One or more years of baseball related experience and/or training at collegiate level or above; or equivalent combination of education and experience; applicable experience in a baseball-related capacity strongly preferred.

Our Team
Tasked with scouring the globe for the next, great Brewers prospects, the International Scouting department oversees the evaluation of amateur baseball talent abroad. We develop strategies to identify future talent while supporting the development of baseball efficiently and accurately in countries far and wide. You will be given the opportunity to forge relationships within our organization with those working in this key initiative, as well as those working in many other areas of Baseball Operations.

Our Pitch
You come here to make a difference. We are a purpose-led organization, focused on building an inclusive and engaging culture that fosters excellence, collaboration and ingenuity. We strive to be a model employer and cultivator of talent, empowering our teams to drive innovation through the inclusion of diverse thoughts, ideas and perspectives. We operate at the highest standard of excellence, investing in the development of our staff across all levels and embracing differences through a culture of respect and understanding.

We are proud to offer a highly competitive perks and benefits package including:

• League wide medical insurance plan
• 401(K) match and an additional annual contribution from the Club
• Collaborative recognition program and incentives
• Online educational platform for personal and professional development
• Employee Resource Groups
• Paid time off for volunteering
• Year-round diversity, equity and inclusion training and development
• Brewers Home Game tickets, promotional giveaways and other discounts!

For more information about our Crew, other benefits and insight into our Club culture please visit our Careers Page.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Associate (Intern) – Baseball Research and Development

Job Description
As part of the Baseball Research and Development Department, the associate will work on dedicated projects to deliver research and tools to improve organizational decision-making. The associate will learn and gain experience within the Baseball Research and Development team, while collaborating with other departments across all of Baseball Operations.

Core duties for this role include, but are not limited to:

• Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs
• Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making
• Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers

The ideal candidate will have a bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) or in the current pursuit of a bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.

Our Team
The Research and Development Department is a critical component to the success of the Milwaukee Brewers organization. We develop the information used in decision-making processes across all other departments. You will be given the opportunity to work on new and innovative research problems and work with personnel across the front-office to see the implementation. We strive to discover the most accurate and actionable information possible to help the Brewers win the World Series.

Our Pitch
You come here to make a difference. We are a purpose-led organization, focused on building an inclusive and engaging culture that fosters excellence, collaboration and ingenuity. We strive to be a model employer and cultivator of talent, empowering our teams to drive innovation through the inclusion of diverse thoughts, ideas and perspectives. We operate at the highest standard of excellence, investing in the development of our staff across all levels and embracing differences through a culture of respect and understanding.

We are proud to offer a highly competitive perks and benefits package including:

• League wide medical insurance plan
• 401(K) match and an additional annual contribution from the Club
• Collaborative recognition program and incentives
• Online educational platform for personal and professional development
• Employee Resource Groups
• Paid time off for volunteering
• Year-round diversity, equity and inclusion training and development
• Brewers Home Game tickets, promotional giveaways and other discounts!

For more information about our Crew, other benefits and insight into our Club culture please visit our Careers Page.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Milwaukee Brewers.

As Gunnar Henderson stepped to the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series on Wednesday night, his team down by a run and one out from elimination, it felt like something special was brewing. Late-inning tension, high stakes, one of the sport’s biggest stars: The postseason was peaking, and the young superstar held the Orioles’ fate in his hands, poised to deliver a signature moment. Unfortunately, he had to deal with Lucas Erceg’s changeup.

Lucas Erceg, Filthy 91mph Changeup. ?

Royals Advance. ? pic.twitter.com/kWKQQy0gzZ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 2, 2024

I’ve followed Erceg all year, first from afar, mystified by the flamethrower that materialized out of nowhere in the Oakland bullpen, and then with a closer eye when he moved to Kansas City, watching him slip seamlessly into the fireman role in the Royals bullpen. His eye-popping fastball velocity caught my attention, but it’s the changeup stealing the show on the bright October stage.

As the table shows, Erceg’s velocity sits at the top of the scale. His four-seam fastball averages 99 mph. Again, he sits at 99 mph. But the results on it were just so-so: It graded out at 0.1 runs per 100 pitches by Baseball Savant’s run value calculations, neither helping nor really hurting him.

I think the pitch’s performance can be explained by its exceedingly “normal” shape. (Shout out to Leo Morgenstern.) Erceg throws his fastball from a 43-degree arm angle, which is smack dab in the tall part of the histogram among major league pitchers. From that bog-standard arm angle, his fastball gets roughly league-average induced vertical break.

Max Bay’s “dynamic dead zone” application projects how batters might perceive Erceg’s fastball relative to arm angle expectations. While the pitch drifts further to his arm-side than batters might initially expect, the vertical expectations are basically identical. The conventional shape of his four-seam fastball knocks it down a peg from a “stuff” perspective, taking it from plus-plus to maybe just plus.

But a high-velocity fastball doesn’t exist in a vacuum — it exists in the context of all in which it lives and what came before it. In other words, it impacts all of the other pitches in an arsenal. As Erceg rears back to throw, hitters have to keep that 99 mph in mind. And that expectation will certainly help a changeup play up.

The velocity separation between his four-seam fastball and changeup is solid — Erceg’s changeup averages 91 mph — but the horizontal movement of the pitch is its most distinct quality. It averaged 17.9 inches of horizontal movement this season; of the 165 pitchers who threw at least 150 changeups in the regular season, only three averaged more horizontal movement, putting Erceg in the 98th percentile.

Some of that arm-side fade is seam-shifted-wake effects; some of it is connected to Erceg’s motor preferences. (Mario Delgado Genzor wrote a great primer on motor preferences for Baseball Prospectus in January.) Erceg, as far as I can tell, is a pronator, which means that his natural throwing motion is conductive to changeups that run and fade to the arm side. Watch how he whips his forearm toward his body in the slow-motion part of this video:

Lucas Erceg, Wicked 91mph Changeup. 🤢

19 inches of run. pic.twitter.com/pUOkcCQ91Z

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 1, 2024

In these playoffs, at least, it’s been not just the movement that’s exceptional, but his pinpoint command of the pitch. On that 1-2 changeup to strike out Henderson, he buried it in that perfect location right below the knees, where it looks like a low fastball right up until the point that it isn’t.

What makes one changeup better than another is generally one of the more difficult questions to answer in pitching analysis. Royals ace Cole Ragans, for example, had one of the best changeups in baseball this season. Its effectiveness can’t really be explained by its shape — it doesn’t have much depth or movement differential from the fastball. But hitters, time and again, swing through the pitch, deceived by Ragans’ arm action or the way the trajectory mirrors his fastball or some other variable that is impossible to measure. Unlike a fastball, a changeup cannot be easily graded by a stuff model because it depends on how it plays against the expectations of the fastball.

What makes Erceg’s changeup good, however, seems pretty obvious to me. It goes fast and it moves a ton, almost like a lefty slider.

The changeup helps Erceg stand above other relievers with more limited arsenals. Against righties, he is mostly a sinker-slider guy, throwing his two-seamer in on the hands and then dropping his slider below the knees for whiffs. But against lefties, he relies on his four-seamer and changeup, neutralizing lethal lefties like Henderson. The results bear this out — Erceg faced roughly an equal amount of righties and lefties this season and held them both in check (.242 wOBA against righties, .279 wOBA against lefties).

There is a flip side to extreme pronation: It is hard to throw big, sweepy glove-side breaking balls. And yet Erceg’s slider has actually graded out as his best pitch by run value and whiff rate this season. As Erceg’s pitch movement plot shows, befitting his pronation bias, the slider doesn’t actually get any glove-side movement, coming awfully close to achieving a true “deathball” shape. Note the yellow dots representing the sliders he threw this season:

Even without glove-side movement, that shape can still be super effective. When Kumar Rocker made his debut, some analysts were throwing 80 grades on his “deathball” slider. Erceg’s slider is shaped just like Rocker’s, but Erceg throws his a couple miles an hour harder.

Erceg’s top-end velocity, platoon-neutral arsenal, and rapidly improving command (a 14.3% walk rate in 2023, an 11.9% walk rate when Michael Baumann wrote about him in May, and a 4.4% walk rate since that post) suggest to me that he could make a transition to starting pitching. Even if he drops two or even three miles per hour while stretching out to six-inning appearances, the fastball velocity will still be well above average. And if the Royals do decide to go that route, they could accrue significant benefits without risking too much. According to Roster Resource, they have him under team control through the rest of the 2020s, giving them plenty of opportunity to reverse course if it doesn’t work out.

Lucas Erceg, quality major league starter — it’d be quite an ending to a remarkable story. He was drafted by the Brewers as a third baseman in 2016, but after struggling to hit in the high minors before and after the pandemic, Erceg made the switch to pitching. Just 18 months ago, our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote that “his mechanical inconsistency impacts his fastball location,” but noted that Erceg had a “chance to make a consistent big league impact if things click for him command-wise.” He is still so new to this, and so it is easy to imagine what could be.

But all of that is for the future. Right here, right now, in the heart of the playoffs, Erceg is the primary weapon out of a surprisingly solid Kansas City bullpen. And it’s the changeup, in my view, that is setting him apart.

Just before the top of the ninth, with the Astros trailing the Tigers, 5-2, in the second game of the AL Wild Card series, something caught my eye. Several somethings, actually. Will Vest, who despite his more than 200 career appearances has just five saves, was taking a moment on the back of the mound to rub the baseball and breathe. The low third base camera found him, and it was hard to differentiate between the routine, meditative acts that Vest always uses to calm himself before an appearance, and the twitches and tics that might only be surfacing now, during the biggest moment of his career.

When Vest determined that the ball had been sufficiently rubbed, he put his glove back on and tossed the ball into it. He adjusted the left shoulder of his jersey, then his hat, then the right shoulder. He rubbed his fingertips against his thumb and his palm to disperse the sweat, and then rubbed his whole hand against his pants leg. He took shallow breaths as he gently worked his foot into the dirt in front of the rubber. He dumped the ball from his glove back into his pitching hand, then pressed it against his right hip in order to wedge it securely into a changeup grip. He brought his glove to his belly and briefly touched the back of his hand to his butt before nesting it in his glove. He came set, then lifted his left leg ever so slightly and came set again.

I didn’t catch all that the first time; my attention was focused on the background. Those several somethings were flickering in gold, setting off tiny lens flares all around the screen, but because Vest was the hero of the shot, they were out of focus and blurred. I puzzled over what they might be, wondering at first whether the Houston fans were shining their cell phone flashlights, holding some sort of vigil for the team’s flatlining season. It took me a moment to remember the King Tuck crowns. Read the rest of this entry »

Pete Rose died on Monday at his home in Las Vegas, closing the book on an 83-year life that included an incredible, record-setting 24-year major league career that was soon followed by three and a half decades of wandering in a desert of his own making. Handed down by commissioner Bart Giamatti in 1989, his permanent banishment from organized baseball for gambling — a prohibition that dates back to predecessor Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis’ effort to clean up the game in the wake of the 1919 “Black Sox” scandal — prevented the all-time leader in hits and games played from cementing his legacy with enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, and from working within baseball in any capacity.

Backed by a sizable contingent of admirers and apologists — and a smaller faction of truthers, a group that at one point included Bill James — Rose spent decades denying his transgressions, lying to the public, to baseball officials, and to himself. Deprived of the financial windfall that would have come with election to the Hall, “The Hit King” chose instead to try making a buck with anything he could put his name on. That included everything from a 2004 no. 1 best-selling autobiography, My Prison Without Bars, in which he admitted in print to gambling while managing the Reds (he had done so in pre-publication publicity as well) to autographed balls with the inscription “I’m sorry I bet on baseball.”

That assertion rang hollow given Rose’s apparent lack of contrition, his unwillingness to reconfigure his life as a precondition of his reinstatement by MLB, and his continued lies. Not until 2015 did he admit to gambling during his playing career, after ESPN’s Outside the Lines obtained copies of documents verifying his bets in 1986 while serving as the player-manager of the Reds. Elsewhere during the last decade of his life, a credible allegation of statutory rape dating to the 1970s, uncovered by prosecutor John Dowd during his investigation into Rose’s gambling, undermined his latter-day reinstatement effort while further chipping away at his public standing. It’s been a fall from grace without parallel, at least among baseball’s icons. Read the rest of this entry »

One year after they missed the playoffs in maddening fashion, the Padres are advancing to the National League Division Series after holding on to beat the Braves, 5-4, in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series on Wednesday night at Petco Park.

If Game 1 of this series was a beautiful ballet choreographed by San Diego starter Michael King, with a result that was never in doubt, then Game 2 was a far more uncertain thriller.

Atlanta struck first, when leadoff batter Michael Harris II smoked a first-pitch double down the right field line, advanced to third on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly. Then the Padres came to bat against Braves lefty Max Fried, and things looked like they were about to get out of hand.

San Diego loaded the bases on back-to-back singles by Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. and a Jurickson Profar chopper in front of the mound — Fried fielded it but his throw to second was late and everyone was safe — before Fried buckled down. He struck out Manny Machado, got Jackson Merrill to ground into a 3-2 fielder’s choice, and induced a grounder to short by Xander Bogaerts to get out of the inning without allowing a run.

This was when I thought Fried was going to have one of those postseason starts. Escaping a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed is one of the most difficult things to do as a pitcher, and dang it, Fried did it in the very first inning against San Diego’s 4-5-6 hitters. The adage is that you’ve got to get to great pitchers before they can settle in, and the Padres almost did that in the first. Additionally, Fried actually looked sharp despite those three baserunners; none of the balls in play left the infield. A great early narrative was brewing in San Diego, with momentum temporarily favoring the Braves.

There was one problem, though. Fried avoided trouble, but he couldn’t avoid the 99.8-mph liner that Tatis ripped off the pitcher’s hip/butt area.

Braves manager Brian Snitker told ESPN’s Buster Olney during the game that the area in which Fried got hit was bothering him, perhaps contributing to the pitcher’s unraveling. The Padres took a different tack in the second inning, when they lulled Fried into a false sense of security by making the first two outs in quick succession before laying the hammer down. Kyle Higashioka homered to tie it, and then all hell broke loose. Fried allowed three straight singles to load the bases before Machado lined a two-run double into the left field corner. Next up was Merrill, who tripled over Harris’ head in straightaway center to plate two more runs. In a 15-pitch span, the Padres went from trailing by one to leading by four.

MERRILL MADNESS!

The rookie comes through with a 2-run triple ? pic.twitter.com/GTdlyCLMbz

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

This game was far from over, though, especially because Padres starter Joe Musgrove left the game with two outs in the fourth with an injury of his own. Two slower-than-usual curveballs prompted an eagle-eyed Higashioka to visit his pitcher on the mound, followed by the pitching coach, manager, and trainer. Musgrove shook his arm out in obvious discomfort, and the injury update was indeed among the most ominous possible: right elbow tightness.

Turning to any bullpen for 16 outs is far from ideal, but it should be an easier pill to swallow for the Padres, who bolstered their relief corps in late July; just before the trade deadline, they acquired Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays. And following King’s seven-inning gem on Tuesday, everyone in San Diego’s bullpen was rested and ready to go. This game wasn’t exactly over, but the Padres certainly had the advantage, especially because Atlanta’s bullpen was running on fumes.

And yet, the Braves relievers were the ones who silenced the Padres, not the other way around. Dylan Lee, Daysbel Hernández, Pierce Johnson, and Joe Jiménez kept Atlanta in the game and set up an exciting finish as San Diego’s bullpen stumbled.

Hoeing replaced the injured Musgrove, got four key outs, and then gave up a 600-foot home run to Jorge Soler. (Please note that my distance estimate is indisputable, as Statcast didn’t register a distance or exit velocity for the ball.)

Jorge Soler hit this baseball to a different universe ? #Postseason pic.twitter.com/Ww7RB3r3bw

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

After the home run, Hoeing retired the next three Braves batters in the fifth before manager Mike Shildt called on Jeremiah Estrada to start the sixth. Estrada had a 28.2% strikeout rate this season, but he clearly didn’t have his best stuff on Wednesday. He allowed two singles, recorded two hard-hit outs, and got just three whiffs on 16 swings. Shildt replaced Estrada with the left-handed Scott to face lefty slugger Matt Olson with runners on the corners and two outs in a three-run game. The Atlanta cleanup hitter lined out to left field to end the inning. Scott pitched a scoreless seventh inning, but he was a bit shaky; only eight of his 24 pitches were in the strike zone.

Facing Adam after Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia singled to lead off the eighth, Harris jumped on the first pitch again, this time launching it over the center field wall for a two-run homer.

MONEY MIKE BRINGS THE @BRAVES WITHIN A RUN! pic.twitter.com/bQ7ACpECRJ

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

That blast energized the Braves dugout to a level unseen over the first 16 innings of the series; if you’re a believer in momentum, it certainly lay squarely in the visitor’s dugout at this point.

But if momentum exists at all, it sometimes exists to only be wiped away, to give a false sense of hope, to create wishes for a longer fall before the harshness of winter and the offseason sets in. Adam and closer Robert Suarez hunkered down to retire the next six Braves. After beating the Mets to clinch a playoff berth in the final regular-season game on Monday, Atlanta’s season ended on Wednesday.

Maybe swift disappointment was the only way it could end, emblematic of a trying season for Snitker’s ballclub. The Braves hoped that Spencer Strider’s elbow injury wouldn’t be too serious, only to learn that he’d need season-ending internal brace surgery. They hoped that Ronald Acuña Jr. would miss about a month or so, only to hear that he’d suffered the second torn ACL of his career and would be out for the season. They hoped Austin Riley would be back for the playoffs after breaking his hand in August, only to find out that he’d require more recovery time. And, most recently, they hoped Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale would be on the mound for them this October, only to discover his back had flared up and he wouldn’t be able to pitch in the Wild Card Series.

All that hope will now turn to 2025, when the injured players are expected to return and bring the rejuvenated nucleus together once again. Hopefully, anyway.

As for the Padres, they’ll ride this series sweep to Los Angeles, where they’ll face off against their rival Dodgers in the best-of-five NLDS. San Diego outperformed the Dodgers in the season series, and even if Musgrove’s injury keeps him off the mound, the Padres’ pitchers are significantly healthier than the Dodgers’ staff. And because the Wild Card Series ended in just two games, San Diego can start ace Dylan Cease in Saturday’s Game 1. Then, the Padres would have Yu Darvish or King on short rest for Game 2, with the other one getting the nod in Tuesday’s Game 3.

One of the fun things about the new Wild Card format is that after the first day, every game is an elimination game. On Wednesday, all four games could have ended with one team heading home and one team punching its ticket for the next round. Three of them ended that way, and the one game left on the docket Thursday will end that way too, after the Brewers beat the Mets to even the National League Wild Card Series at one game apiece.

That kind of pressure is nothing new for the Mets, who spent pretty much the entire season dancing on a knife’s edge, but it’s certainly an unfamiliar feeling for the Brewers, whose playoff odds hadn’t dropped below 75% since May or below 90% since early August. “I’m going to be honest with you: It’s hard to be tired when you’re playing playoff baseball,” New York third baseman Mark Vientos said following Tuesday’s Game 1 win. “I had a bunch of energy. I know all of us did.” The Mets certainly didn’t come out flat on Wednesday night, but they did come out horizontal.

I’ll explain what I mean by that in a moment, but I shouldn’t bury the lede any longer: This was the Jackson Chourio Game. Or at least it was the first Jackson Chourio Game; we could be in for a lot more Jackson Chourio Games over the next decade or two. The 20-year-old, who entered the season as the no. 5 prospect in baseball, has already emerged as one of the game’s best young talents, and now he’s made it clear that he’s absolutely nails in the playoffs. In Wednesday’s NL Wild Card Series Game 2 (Jackson Chourio Game 1), the Brewers left fielder ripped two game-tying home runs in a 5-3 Milwaukee win. Read the rest of this entry »