The Reds have continued to overhaul their bullpen during the final week before the deadline, acquiring right-hander Mychal Givens, who has undergone a bit of a transformation himself this year, from the Rockies in return for minor league right-handers Case Williams and Noah Davis. Cincinnati will be responsible for roughly $1.5 million of Givens’ remaining salary in his final year of arbitration before he reaches free agency this offseason.

Givens is a player more valued by the industry than fans; consistent relievers, even if they are just consistently solid, are a rare commodity. And Givens is just that, with the weird 2020 season as his only campaign with a negative WAR, and just -0.1 at that. He’s not a high-leverage guy, but he is at least dependable.

His 2.73 ERA this year isn’t supported by most metrics that consistently put him in the 4-plus range, but Givens has a consistent track record of missing bats with both his 92–96-mph fastball and plus changeup, both of which come from a funky, extra-low arm angle. His changeup has always been his best pitch, and over the last three years, he’s gone from using it around 10% of the time to nearly 20% in 2020 to a whopping 40% this season. It makes sense based on how well the pitch performs; you could easily make an argument that Givens should go with a Trevor Hoffman-esque approach of leaning primarily on his fastball/changeup combination and greatly reduce his slider usage, as his fringy breaker gets consistently hit hard. Read the rest of this entry »

We at FanGraphs haven’t checked in on the Rockies in a while. To put it nicely, that’s because they are performing as expected – a 43-55 record has banished them to fourth in the NL West, a place the team will probably call home for the remainder of the season. As a whole, the Rockies have a league-trailing 75 wRC+. It is not a good sign when C.J. Cron is the best hitter on your team by a wide margin.

But the pitching? After adjusting for the wackiness of Coors, the Rockies’ pitching staff has an ERA- of 100. It also has a FIP- of 101. I suppose one could do better than that, but one could also do worse, and being an average arm in Denver is an accomplishment of its own.

A major reason for this is the resurgence of Germán Márquez. After a rocky April and May, it’s safe to say the Rockies’ most reliable pitcher has settled in. What do we know about Márquez? There are his two breaking pitches, a curveball and a slider, each one a plus offering that hitters whiff at over 40% of the time. But what’s not talked about as often is his four-seam fastball. That in itself isn’t surprising, since the fastball has long been Márquez’s worst pitch. What is surprising, though, is how good it’s been in recent months. Consider the plot below:

Márquez is the point in yellow. Since June 1 (and through last Thursday’s action), his four-seamer has averaged the lowest launch angle among the 97 shown. It has averaged the lowest wOBA, too, a result of the first fact. The pitch has always induced groundballs at a healthy rate, but that quality seems to have been kicked into overdrive during this two-month stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

Mitchell Kilkenny is quietly having a stupendous season. A second-round pick by the Colorado Rockies in 2018 out of Texas A&M, the 24-year-old right-hander boasts a 1.47 ERA over eight starts with the Low-A Fresno Grizzlies and the Spokane Indians. Moreover, he’s fanned 54 batters and issued just five free passes in 43 innings.

His plus command is a much-needed asset. Kilkenny is more finesse than power, his fastball ranging from the upper 80s to the low 90s. At least for now. Kilkenny threw harder as a collegian, but then came Tommy John surgery shortly after he was drafted, and last year’s cancelled minor-league season only muddied the waters. No matter. He fully expects his velocity to tick back up in time, and even if that doesn’t happen, his ability to mix, match and tunnel two- and four-seam fastballs, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup has proven to be plenty effective. As Kilkenny put it, “I might not be bright and flashy, but I’m having success.”

Prior to matriculating at Texas A&M where he double-majored in Renewable Natural Resources and Forestry, he excelled in English class at Houston Christian High School.

“My one fun fact is that I won two awards in creative writing contests,” Kilkenny told me. “One was for a class project where we were to write to a favorite author of ours. I picked Bill Watterson, for Calvin and Hobbes, because that was my favorite comic growing up, I love Calvin and Hobbes. Anyway, it was just a little piece about what the author had given me, which was some of the insights you can get out of a simple comic.” Read the rest of this entry »

Austin Gomber came to the Rockies by way of the Nolan Arenado trade back in January, but of the five players acquired by Colorado, he faced the most immediate pressure as the lone newcomer expected to contribute to the big league club right away. That may feel like a bit of misfortune for a 27-year-old pitcher simply trying to find a foothold on a big league roster after bouncing between Triple A and the bigs between 2018 and ‘20 while with the Cardinals. Being traded for a franchise cornerstone wasn’t his only bit of rotten luck; he now has to make half of his starts in Coors Field, a place that is far and away the worst pitcher’s park in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Goldstein and I have updated the pro portion of the Top 100, which means we quickly reviewed the placement of players in the 50 FV tier and above, and considered who was not yet in those tiers but should be based on how they’ve looked during the first month of the 2021 season. I still have three total org audits to do — Milwaukee, Oakland and the Cubs — before I start peeling graduates off the list. Those will be completed shortly. You can find the updated list here.

Also, if you missed it, Kevin and I updated our draft rankings and posted a Mock Draft on Monday.

The lone change up near the top of the 100 is Riley Greene moving into the top 20; he’s in the mix with several other similarly-aged players with the talent to be consistent All-Stars, like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Corbin Carroll.

DL Hall moved into the 55 FV tier on the strength of his stuff. He’s still walking a fairly high rate of opposing batters but just on the strength of his three plus pitches, could be a Haderesque relief weapon even if he can’t start. Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Smith has quietly been a good pitcher for a long time. Now 37 years old and playing for his sixth team, the Houston Astros reliever has a 3.06 ERA over 14 big-league seasons. Moreover, his 804 appearances are the most of any active hurler — and that’s not even the eye-catching part. Smith recently moved ahead of Walter Johnson into 49th place on the all-time list, with another legend in his sights. Next up is Nolan Ryan, who logged 807 career outings.

I asked Smith about his ascent in the pitching-appearances category. Could he have imagined this when he debuted with the New York Mets in 2007?

“When I first got called up, I was just trying to figure out what the heck pitching in the big leagues was, “said Smith, who’d been drafted out of Wright State University the previous year. “That offseason, I wrote out some goals and things I needed to get better at, and I was able to accomplish them. At that point I felt like I could do it for a long time. But there’s so much luck in this game. Your health, right? Pedro Martinez was on the team, and everybody would wish him good luck. He’d be, ‘No, wish me good health. If I’m healthy, I’ll be good.’ That really resonated with me. Being able to answer the call is what it’s about, especially when you’re a reliever. You want to be able to post as many days as you can.”

Right now he’s on the shelf. Smith went on the 10-day IL earlier this week, his return date uncertain. The sidearmer told me that everything is structurally sound, yet his forearm had been “grabbing” him (Astros manager Dusty Baker has reportedly referred to it as “elbow soreness”). Read the rest of this entry »

In May, I took a look at some of the most compelling storylines in the American League for the teams least likely to make the postseason. Since that post ran, Shohei Ohtani has been involved in a benches clearing incident (don’t worry, he’s fine) and Miguel Cabrera inched closer to his 3,000th hit with this bases-clearing double to put the Tigers ahead of the Brewers:

The Brewers are in first place in the NL Central right now, so they will not be making another appearance in this post, as our projections like their chances in a tight division race and predict that they’ll hold that spot to win the division. No, this post is for the teams that are much less likely to make the postseason — the teams that won’t play meaningful baseball in October, but that can hopefully still offer something to the fans who continue to show up. Let’s delve into the prospects, players, and milestones on the horizon for the non-contenders in the Senior Circuit. Read the rest of this entry »

Times are tough in Denver. The biggest stories for the Rockies this year have been their trade of their best player (heavily and rightfully criticized), the resignation of Jeff Bridich, and the relocation of this season’s All-Star Game to Coors Field. Okay, that last one is pretty cool, and the Bridich news was good news for Rockies fans. On the field though, it’s been pretty ugly. The Rockies are fourth in the NL West and on pace to lose 99 games, and they’ve gone just 4–22 on the road with only 63 runs scored. But there’s one player donning the purple and black who might finally be breaking out: Ryan McMahon.

Since coming onto the scene in 2017, McMahon has been the subject of more than a few breakout player articles, including Dan Symborski’s piece on the top 2021 candidates to take a step forward. He’s answered the call so far, serving as the lone bright spot for the Rockies in what has been an otherwise dismal season by slashing .259/.313/.507 with 13 homers and 1.3 WAR. These numbers aren’t especially eye-popping for a player who calls Coors Field home, but offensive numbers have been down across the big leagues this season, and while McMahon has played plenty of corner infield in his career, his primary position has been at second, where the bar is a bit lower.

Before we attempt to answer whether or not the breakout is for real, it’s worth looking at what makes McMahon such a tempting choice to develop into a better big league hitter. A big part of the reason is his raw power. Unless your name is Nick Madrigal, it’s usually going to take some serious power potential to get preseason hype. Prior to the 2018 season, McMahon was ranked third in the Rockies’ system, per Eric Longenhagen’s prospect list, with his 60 raw power as his greatest asset. At the major league level, where his batted ball data is more visible than the minor leagues, McMahon has achieved a maximum exit velocity in the 68th percentile or better each season.

Read the rest of this entry »

With disastrous free agent signing after disastrous free agent signing, and then the trade of Nolan Arenado, the Rockies have already fallen into irrelevance, even if their 20-34 record isn’t actually the NL West’s worst. As if they needed more problems, star shortstop Trevor Story has been sidelined by inflammation in his right elbow. At a time when his production has already fallen short of expectations, the 28-year-old shortstop’s injury — which recalls a late-2018 scare — could have a significant impact upon his trade value.

According to manager Bud Black, Story began experiencing tightness and pain in his elbow and forearm following a play against the Mets in the second game of a doubleheader last Thursday. Fielding a grounder off the bat of Cameron Maybin in the third inning, he ranged to his left, spun, and threw a one-hopper to first base in time for the out.

Story left the game in the middle of the fourth inning, without fielding another ball or coming to bat. He did not play on Friday, and was placed on the 10-day Injured List on Saturday. With the Rockies in the midst of a week-long road trip to New York and Pittsburgh, the team planned for him to undergo an MRI on Monday, once he returned to Denver, to determine if the injury is more severe. At this writing, the Rockies have yet to share the results with the public, but the early indications are that this isn’t a worst-case scenario; Black characterized Story’s injury as “not as bad” as one he suffered in late 2018 (more on which momentarily). Via MLB.com’s Manny Randhawa:

“Trev and I and [head trainer] Keith [Dugger] spoke this morning, and we decided the best thing for Trev was to go on the injured list,” Black said. “There’s still some residual soreness and general tightness around the joint of the elbow. He wasn’t gonna play today, probably wasn’t gonna play tomorrow, and then the off-day. And then the three of us also thought there’s gonna be a couple days to test this, to go out in Denver and throw and hit at some level of intensity as opposed to just picking up and playing.”

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Building off of yesterday’s American League conference call agendas, let’s move on to the National League and see what’s on the docket for the teams of the senior circuit.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• We’re over .500 and we’re banged up. This team is better than people on the outside thought. That said, I don’t think we’ll be exceptionally busy in terms of buying this summer. We’re not catching the Padres or Dodgers, and let’s not forget about the Giants. Let’s stick to the plan and just keep getting better long-term.
• The rotation has been up-and-down, and Corbin Martin is probably the only minor league piece with a chance to contribute in that area. Let’s get some ideas going as to how we get through 162 games with depth issues in that department.
• Let’s have some initial talks about draft strategy, as we’re picking sixth. It feels like there is a four-player tier at the top of the draft, so let’s see if there’s a tier-two player we like at six, or if we should be more creative and spread the wealth a bit.
• The offense overall has been good, but our infield is not hitting. There aren’t any immediate moves to make, but it sure would be nice to see Seth Beer get off to a nice start to gauge whether he can get some at-bats up here as a Christian Walker replacement.
• We love having the presence of Eduardo Escobar and Asdrúbal Cabrera, but there should be a market for both this July, and we should be listening. Let’s focus on arms in those discussions.
• The same goes for David Peralta, even though he’s been our second best hitter and is signed for next year as well. That extra year, which is a cheap one at that ($7.5 million), should help generate some interest.

Read the rest of this entry »