Winning a batting title was long a prestigious accomplishment. If you led your league in hitting, you were generally viewed as one of the best in the game for that reason alone. That’s no longer the case, though, and while batting average still has meaning — like every other stat, it paints part of the picture — it only tells you so much. Metrics such as wOBA and wRC+ provide far better snapshots of a hitter’s value.

Which isn’t to say that hitting for a high average, particularly the highest average among your peers, doesn’t matter to many players. Ditto to others who make baseball their profession. As Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli put it, “I think it does matter, and it should matter. If you have a player who is getting a crap ton of hits, that’s a nice way to bring value. I’ll take a bunch of guys with a .320 batting average… who are getting on base all the time.”

Luis Arraez is that type of player. Since he debuted in 2019, no one on Baldelli’s club boasts a higher batting average, and only the now-departed Nelson Cruz has a higher OBP. A .312/.374/.400 hitter in 1,048 big-league plate appearances, Arraez profiles as a potential batting champion.

“Luis Arraez” was Jayce Tingler’s immediate response when I asked Minnesota’s bench coach which Twins player would be most likely to capture a batting title. “He’s got great judgment of the strike zone, great hand-eye [coordination], he hits the ball from chalk line to chalk line. He’s one of the best line-drive hitters in the game.” Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, Byron Buxton seems to find another gear. With the exception of his abbreviated 2018 (94 plate appearances in the majors), Buxton’s OPS has increased every single season compared to the year before. In 2022, partly thanks to becoming a fastball-crushing machine since the start of last year, he’s continued this pattern, hitting .278/.342/.722 in 79 plate appearances (all stats are through Monday’s action). He’s even tied for the league lead in home runs with nine, especially impressive given that he’s missed more than a third of Minnesota’s games.

It’s that last fact that is troubling, as Buxton’s career has been hampered by an unfortunate inability to stay healthy. And it hasn’t been one, consistent problem that keeps him out of games but rather a succession of nagging ones, with each season bringing a mystery grab bag of misfortune. This year, it’s been a sore knee from a slide, a hand contusion, and a hip problem. Last year, it was a hip, a hamstring, and a broken hand. Before 2021, he missed time due to a concussion, a sore left shoulder, a sprained left foot, a torn labrum, another concussion, a hit by a pitch to the wrist, a different strain to the same wrist, a broken toe, serious migraines after an outfield wall collision, a strained groin, and a sprained knee — and that doesn’t count the myriad day-to-day issues.

The last time Buxton played even 100 games in a season was in 2017 (while there were only 60 games in 2020, he still missed a third of them). I was born in 1978; growing up, Eric Davis was the five-tool, mega-skilled exemplar of the dynamic superstar who couldn’t stay healthy, but even he still managed to get into 130 games a year during his 1986–90 peak. Buxton debuted almost seven years ago, in June 2015, and barely has three years’ worth of playing time in the majors to go along with another half-season in the minors due to Minnesota’s early proclivity for demoting him every time he fell into a slump. Read the rest of this entry »

The Learning and Developing a Pitch series is back for another season, and once again, we’re hearing from pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features a pair of right-handers — Toronto’s Trent Thornton and Minnesota’s Josh Winder — on their distinctly different sliders.

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Trent Thornton, Toronto Blues Jays

“Last year, I struggled with putting away righties. My slider wasn’t playing very well. I feel like curveballs are normally better to lefties anyways, so I started tinkering with a new slider grip that [Blue Jays pitching strategist] David Howell showed me. I started throwing that halfway through spring training, saw some pretty promising results, and took it straight into this season. I feel pretty confident with that pitch, being able to throw it in the zone, or out of the zone.

“It’s kind of an interesting grip for a slider. Normally, when guys are throwing a slider they want to think fastball as long as possible and kind of get that short, late action. But with this one, I’m almost thinking, ‘Completely on the side of the ball.’ In my mind, I’m trying to up-shoot it almost. I want to go straight across. It’s weird, because when I throw it, my wrist is literally like this; it’s kind of sideways. Basically, I’m thinking about bringing the back of my hands straight at the hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

I just returned from a 10-day trip to Florida that began in the Tampa area, progressed through the southwest part of the state, and ended in Jupiter and West Palm Beach. During the trip, I saw a mix of extended spring training, Florida State League and amateur baseball, though there were times when I passed on the latter in order to see more games. For instance, the first morning I woke up in the Tampa area I could have headed north to Gainesville for part of the University of Tennessee at Florida series, but that would have meant driving five hours round trip and giving up an extended/FSL double up on at least one of those days, and probably two of them.

Instead I stayed in town and saw five games during my first three days away. I spent my first morning at Blue Jays extended spring training watching them play the Tigers. While a few guys from Detroit’s extended group are mentioned on the Tigers prospect list (the younger Wilmer Fenelon, Iverson Leonardo, J.D. McLaughlin), the lone new player who I’d like to call attention to is switch-hitting SS/3B Abel Bastidas, who won’t turn 19 until November. Bastidas has a well-composed 6-foot-2 frame, and he showed some pretty advanced pitch recognition in just a few at-bats, making a mid-flight adjustment to a couple of offspeed pitches, showing at least average bat speed, and laying down average run times. I didn’t see enough defensively to have a real opinion about Bastidas’ ability to play shortstop, but this is a well-rounded, projectable, switch-hitting infielder who everyone should be keyed-in on during the extended/Complex League period.

Eric Pardinho started the game for Toronto and sat 90-91 mph with below-average secondary stuff. It’s nice that he’s healthy and pitching but it’s fine to move on from considering him a prospect at this point. Similarly (I’m getting the bad news out of the way here), I left Florida highly skeptical of shortstop Manuel Beltre, who signed with Toronto for $2.35 million in 2021. Lauded for his drive and grit, there isn’t much in the way of tools here. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday afternoon, Byron Buxton demolished a fastball from one of the game’s best pitchers, sending it where balls rarely go at Minneapolis’ Target Field. See for yourself:

That was the longest walk-off homer in the Statcast era, at 469 feet, and the ninth-longest home run in the history of Target Field. Impressive as that swing was, it didn’t come in isolation. It’s worth taking a closer look at the 10th inning to get a better idea of how Buxton ended up turning around a 96-mph fastball, and how this result has been happening more often for the burgeoning superstar. Read the rest of this entry »

Peter Gammons didn’t invent the Sunday notes column, but few would dispute that he perfected it. The 77-year-old sportswriter-turned-TV-analyst did so at The Boston Globe, where he began a career that has seen him become the world’s most-influential baseball columnist. To say that Gammons has been an influence on the column you are currently reading would be an understatement.

I’ve had the pleasure of knowing Gammons for years, yet had never asked him about the genesis of his own Sunday column. Chatting with him at Fenway Park earlier this week, I decided to change that.

“I loved the notion of the notes column, and how Dick Young used it,” Gammons said of the late New York-based sportswriter. “I always thought there should be one for every sport. Bob Ryan and I talked about it when we were both interns, in 1968. I’ve always loved the minor leagues, and in 1970 — 1969 was my first full year with the Globe —I asked, ‘Can I write a notes column on the minor leagues?’ The Globe people said fine. This was for the Sunday paper.”

Gammons recalled writing about Bob Montgomery, who came up through the Boston system before catching for them for 10 big-league seasons. (Later a TV analyst on Red Sox games, Montgomery has the distinction of being the last player for any team to come to the plate without a batting helmet.)

In typical Gammons fashion, the other player he mentioned having covered in his nascent notes days was equal parts obscure and interesting. Calling him “a minor league legend as a hitter,” and citing his .300 big-league batting average, Gammons name-checked Chris Coletta. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 971

On this week’s show, we welcome a club’s president of baseball operations to talk about his team’s inner workings before we react to the exciting first few weeks of the season.

• At the top of the program, David Laurila welcomes Derek Falvey, president of baseball operations for the Minnesota Twins. Falvey gives us insight into the José Berríos trade, how much autonomy they give manager Rocco Baldelli, and whether it is easier or harder to trade with general managers you count as friends (such as former podcast guest Ross Atkins). We also hear about players like Simeon Woods Richardson, Jhoan Duran, Joe Smith, and Dylan Bundy, as well as the team hiring Kevin Goldstein away from FanGraphs. [2:46]
• In the second half, Ben Clemens and Jason Martinez get together to chat about the young baseball season. The pair discuss the recent Luke Voit/Tommy Pham drama, and talk about the sometimes-double-edged sword of playing with a chip on your shoulder. The duo also discuss some disappointing clubs (the D-backs) and some pleasant surprises (the Rockies), as well as the game’s overall lack of offense. Finally, Ben is cautiously intrigued by the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching strategy and its early dividends, highlighted by Keegan Akin. [25:36]

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Joe Ryan’s name is well-known to FanGraphs readers, particularly those who are into pitching analytics. As Jake Mailhot wrote when profiling him back in January, the 25-year-old Minnesota Twins right-hander succeeds in part because of an extreme vertical approach angle. Thrown from an atypical arm slot, Ryan’s four-seamer — despite averaging a modest 92 mph — is especially effective up in the zone. As Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote last month, “Throughout his time in the minors, Ryan’s strikeout rate has left many scratching their heads.”

His ability to miss bats has thus far translated to the big leagues. Since debuting with the Twins last September, the former Tampa Bay Rays prospect — Ryan came to Minnesota as part of last July’s Nelson Cruz deal — has allowed just 23 hits, with 41 strikeouts, in 36-and-two-thirds big league innings.

Ryan — No. 6 on our 2022 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects list — discussed his approach angle, and the repertoire that goes with it, prior to a recent game at Fenway Park.

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David Laurila: The majority of FanGraphs readers are familiar with your pitching profile. That said, how would you describe it?

Joe Ryan: “I’m not sure. I don’t think about it too big-picture, or try to analyze myself in that way. Simplistically, I’m a strike-thrower that fills up the zone, tries to hit my spots, and pitches to my strengths. I’m also always trying to develop new pitches and make everything else better, and more consistent. I’m not trying to overhaul, but rather I tinker a lot. Maybe not a lot, but I am always wanting a little more.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Learning and Developing a Pitch series is back for another season, and once again we’ll be hearing from pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features a veteran left-hander, Jake Diekman, and a young right-hander, Griffin Jax, on their signature sliders.

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Jake Diekman, Boston Red Sox

“I learned a slider in my first year of college, or maybe in my senior year of high school. It was my breaking ball. If you’re under 16 years old, you should not throw a curveball or slider. That’s my opinion. You should just develop a heater — maybe a two-seamer — and a changeup.

“When I started [throwing a breaking ball], I threw it from over-the-top. It was curveball/slider-ish. When you’re 18 years old — this was back in 2005 — no one really gave a care if it was… I mean, we just saw it break. It was, ‘Oh yeah, that’s a breaking ball.’ Now they classify [pitches]. And there are sliders that look like curveballs, and sliders that look like cutters.

“My slider two years ago is different from any slider I’ve ever thrown. You just evolve. Sometimes you’ll keep the same slider for three, four years in a row, and then you start throwing it in spring training or in the offseason and you’re like, ‘I don’t know how to throw this thing anymore.’ You have to find a different seam, different thumb placement, a different whatever. Read the rest of this entry »

This season, Eric and Tess Taruskin will each have a minor league roundup post that runs during the week, with the earlier post recapping some of the weekend’s action. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.

Jordan Brewer, OF, Houston Astros
Level & Affiliate: High-A Asheville Age: 24 Org Rank: TBD FV: 40
Weekend Line: 7-for-11, 3 HR, 2B, 3B, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 SB

Notes
Brewer has always had big tools (plus-plus speed, above-average raw power, a plus arm) and some late-bloomer qualities. He was draft eligible in 2018 at Lincoln Trail JC in Illinois and went unselected, but emerged after he transferred to Michigan and went in the third round in 2019. Brewer has barely played pro ball due to a combination of the pandemic and injuries, including a knee surgery. Even though he’s already 24, you could reasonably hope things will click for him on a delay because of the atypical amateur path and all the missed reps in pro ball. Brewer’s start to the 2022 season is what it would look like on paper if that was actually happening. He’s halfway to his 2021 home run total after just six games. Read the rest of this entry »