Here’s your chance to vote for the 2019 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award winners.

The SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards will recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year. Nominations were solicited by representatives from SABR, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, and Beyond the Box Score.

To read any of the finalists, click on the link below. Scroll down to cast your vote.

Contemporary Baseball Analysis

• Wayne Boyle, Sean O’Rourke, Jeff Long, and Harry Pavlidis, “Robo Strike Zone: It’s Not as Simple as You Think,” Baseball Prospectus, January 29, 2018.
• Jonathan Judge, “The Performance Case for DRC+,” Baseball Prospectus, December 3, 2018.
• Travis Sawchik, “Baseball Positions Are Starting to Lose Their Meaning,” FiveThirtyEight, August 28, 2018.
• Jeff Sullivan, “Banning the Shift Is a Solution in Search of a Problem,” FanGraphs, December 5, 2018.
• Meredith Wills, “How One Tiny Change to the Baseball May Have Led to Both the Home Run Surge and the Rise in Pitcher Blisters,” The Athletic, June 6, 2018.

Contemporary Baseball Commentary

• Patrick Dubuque, “A Hymn for the Index Stat,” Baseball Prospectus, December 3, 2018.
• Jeff Passan, “Here’s Why Baseball’s Economic System Might Be Broken,” Yahoo! Sports, January 16, 2018.
• Sheryl Ring, “The Human Side of the Cubs’ Addison Russell Decision,” FanGraphs, December 6, 2018.
• Eno Sarris, “The Next ‘Moneyball’ is Already Happening All Around Us, in the Wild West of Player Development,” The Athletic, December 7, 2018.
• Neil Weinberg, “Building Better Statistical Incentives,” The Hardball Times Annual 2018, January 25, 2018.

Historical Analysis/Commentary

• Britni de la Cretaz, “The Hidden Queer History Behind ‘A League of Their Own,’ ” Narratively, May 30, 2018. 
• Steven Goldman, “Placeboball: When Baseball Proves Itself Nonessential,” The Hardball Times, June 7, 2018.
• Ben Lindbergh, “The Sabermetric Movement’s Forgotten Foremother,” The Ringer, February 20, 2018.
• Rachael McDaniel, “Doug Ault and the Triumph of Joy,” Baseball Prospectus, January 11, 2018.
• Dayn Perry, “The White Sox Ballpark in Chicago That Never Was and Could Have Changed History,” CBS Sports, April 10, 2018.

Voting will be open through 11:59 p.m. MST on Monday, February 11, 2019. Details and criteria for each category can be found here. Only one work per author was considered as a finalist.

Create your own user feedback survey

Mobile or Safari users, click here to access the survey

Results will be announced and presented at the eighth annual SABR Analytics Conference, March 8-10, 2019, at the Hyatt Regency Phoenix in Phoenix, Arizona. Learn more or register for the conference at SABR.org/analytics.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, Nathaniel Grow and I each wrote that it looked like the longstanding battle over minor league wages might be on the verge of ending with the passage by Congress of the Save America’s Pastime Act, a statute that had the dual effect of capping minor league players’ pay and threatening the existence of Independent Leagues. Despite Major League Baseball’s success in lobbying for and obtaining passage of the Act, it seems that the league isn’t done yet, moving its fight from the federal level to the states.

Last week, Ben Giles of the Arizona Capital Times reported that MLB is backing a bill introduced in the state legislature by Representative T.J. Shope that would exempt minor leaguers from Arizona’s state minimum wage laws.

HB 2180 would carve out minor league baseball players in Arizona law by enshrining the exemption in federal law in state statute. If signed into law, the bill also applies retroactively, meaning teams would be free from liability against any prior claims that the law was violated.

Now, you might be wondering why MLB is going to such lengths to exempt minor leaguers from state minimum wage laws when the federal statute is already on the books. The answer is pretty straightforward. Even though there is a federal minimum wage – it is set at $7.25 per hour – states also have their own minimum wage laws, many of which require higher hourly rates than the federal statutory minimum. The way the law is written, the federal minimum wage acts as a floor, meaning that a state is legally allowed to require a wage that is greater than the federal wage, but can’t have a minimum wage that falls below it. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

The lineup feels a lot like one fielded by the St. Louis Cardinals. There are no bonafide superstar projections on the offense (Robinson Cano‘s projections don’t look like they used to, though ZiPS thinks he’ll still be a good player) but there’s a surprising amount of depth, providing a number of solid options for those times when stuff hits the fan. That approach is a smart way for a team in contention to construct its roster, given that teams with serious playoff aspirations should be more risk-averse than middling or rebuilding teams are; depth is certainly a preferable strategy to hoping injuries somehow pass you by. There’s one thing St. Louis has that the New York Mets have lacked, however: a track record of actually doing a good job shuffling their offensive talent around. The Cardinals very rarely bury players, but the Mets have been known to do all sorts of weird things, such as going into seasons without an obvious starting job for Michael Conforto, signing Jose Reyes and then playing him way too often, prioritizing Jay Bruce’s playing time, and needing some bad luck on the injury front to actually give Brandon Nimmo a full-time job coming off a .379 on-base percentage in 69 games in 2017. Whether you want to blame their managers or ownership, the Mets have made some real head-scratching decisions.

And so while are a lot of options here, the Mets will have to prove that they can deploy their talent effectively. Jeff McNeil doesn’t have an obvious starting role, so the team has to demonstrate that they want to find at-bats for him, not just give them to him grudgingly as they did in 2018, only after the obviously worse options played very obviously worse. Once Peter Alonso is down in the minors just long enough to get another year of cost control for the Mets … errr … I mean once Peter Alonso is finished polishing his game coincidentally in just enough games to delay his free agency for a year, getting him playing time should be the priority over the more expensive Todd Frazier. Yoenis Cespedes‘ heel surgeries will likely keep the Mets from having to make any tricky outfield decisions (his ZiPS projection is mostly theoretical) for a while, but that won’t last forever.

Pitchers

I like Jed Lowrie, but if you could buy baseball players from a catalog, I’d be calling customer service and telling the agent “Yeah, there’s nothing wrong with him, and he works fine and everything, but do you have him in pitcher?” The front four looks very solid, but the team has given every indication that Jason Vargas will take the fifth starter job if no other options are acquired this winter. Remember what I said about how contending teams should be risk-averse? Vargas is an extremely risky pitcher, and even though it hasn’t been so long since he pretended to be Greg Maddux for a few months in early 2017, I’d really like the team to do better here, given the noise they’ve made about contending and the very real improvements in other parts of the roster.

Edwin Diaz is a significant addition, and it’s surprising how cheaply they were able to add Diaz and Cano to the roster, both in terms of money and prospects. Of all the ZiPS teams to go up on FanGraphs so far, Diaz has the highest projected WAR of any relief pitcher and the lowest ERA, by three-tenths of a run. And that’s not just because I’ve run bad teams; Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, and Brad Hand have already gone live. Signing Luis Avilan to just a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to spring training may go down as one of the best low-key deals of the winter, and the back end of the bullpen is better than many think.

Bench and Prospects

Perhaps my favorite projection for the Mets this year is the league-average projection for minor league reliever Stephen Villines, who I suspect would attract the interest of my friend/mortal enemy/ex-FanGraphs editor Carson Cistulli. He’s not really on the prospect radar much, but he had an interesting first professional season, striking out 54 of 138 batters in the Sally League, 25 of 77 for Hi-A St. Lucie, and then after a final promotion to Double-A Binghamton, striking out 17 of 43 batters. That’s 96 strikeouts against just 13 walks and three homers in 66.2 innings. Now, if he was doing this by blowing batters away with a 95 mph fastball, he’d be on prospects lists. But he doesn’t — he’s a soft-tosser who gets by on changing speeds and a slow slider. But he’s also a sidearmer, with a motion that looks like he wants to throw submarine but gives up halfway and just whips it around, kinda like Terry Leach’s delivery (I’m dating myself). We’ve seen sidearmers/submariners survive with slower stuff than you’d expect was sustainable — guys like Chad Bradford and Mike Myers come to mind — so while Villines could blow up in a bad way against Triple-A hitters, I’m intrigued.

ZiPS already gives Andres Gimenez a win per 600 PA in 2019 and projects enough growth from him to make for an interesting decision for the Mets at shortstop in a few years. ZiPS has come off its love for Dominic Smith, but still thinks Dilson Herrera would at least be a good role player if he can stay healthy. Believe it or not, Herrera is still just 24 (he turns 25 in March) even though it feels like he’s been around forever. There’s really no room for him on the Mets the way the team is currently constructed, but he could still resurface elsewhere and have some type of major league career — people wrote off Jose Peraza at way too young an age, too.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

Ben Lindbergh and ESPN’s Sam Miller banter about offseason content-creation strategies, recurring columns, and an alternate history in which Orlando Cepeda could have prevented writers from citing stats in stories, then (21:45) talk to longtime Baseball Prospectus writer (and author of The Shift) Russell Carleton about his departure from BP to take a job with the New York Mets, his most influential articles, what he learned from his previous MLB consulting gig, the evolution of sabermetric analysis, critical thinking vs. technical skills, and more.

Audio intro: Margo Price, "Don’t Say It"
Audio interstitial: The Posies, "Farewell Typewriter"
Audio outro: Van Morrison, "Starting a New Life"

Link to Hirsch’s Mays bio
Link to Russell and Kate’s front-office series
Link to Russell on the 30-run manager
Link to Russell on Inge
Link to Russell on the grind
Link to Russell on statistical stability
Link to Russell on player development
Link to Russell on feeding minor leaguers
Link to Russell on intentional walks
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about players playing for their lives, Bryce Harper rumors, Harper’s fame vs. Mike Trout’s, feeling less intense anticipation than they used to, the Red Sox signing the previously permabanned Jenrry Mejia, and uncertainty surrounding the latest labor strife. Then (30:06) Ben talks to Chris Enns, author of The Death Row All Stars, about baseball in the Old West and the strange saga of the 1911 Wyoming State Penitentiary team, an all-convict squad that played to stave off execution and caused a statewide scandal. Lastly (1:00:21), Jeff rejoins for a conversation with Wes Abarca (co-founder, commissioner, and Crestline Highlanders captain) and Joe Billheimer (Highlanders “behind”) of the Southern California Vintage Base Ball League to discuss the popularity of vintage baseball, the strategic intricacies of playing under 1886 rules, the challenge of playing with period equipment, the importance of staying in character, whether they prefer old or new baseball, and more.

Audio intro: Spoon, "Something to Look Forward To"
Audio interstitial 1: Skip James, "Hard Time Killing Floor Blues"
Audio interstitial 2: Paul McCartney, "Vintage Clothes"
Audio outro: Dr. Dog, "Survive"

Link to Rosenthal article
Link to Ben’s old article about the MLB revenue split
Link to Chris Enss site
Link to Conan’s vintage baseball video
Link to Vintage Base Ball Association site
Link to SoCal Vintage Base Ball League site
Link to Crestline Highlanders site
Link to SoCal league video
Link to Highlanders game photo album
Link to SCVBB Rules
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Last season, the Diamondbacks were one of the best defensive teams in either league. In the end, it wasn’t enough to get them to the playoffs, but it took a September collapse for them to fall out of first place. Arizona finished first by a large margin in Defensive Runs Saved. They weren’t quite so good by Ultimate Zone Rating, but that also doesn’t give them credit for their quality work behind the plate. Looking at Statcast’s difference between actual and expected wOBA allowed, the Diamondbacks finished behind only the A’s. It wasn’t a perfect season in the desert, but it wasn’t the defense that let them down.

Now we’re looking at a team in transition. There’s no easy way to lose Paul Goldschmidt. There’s no easy way to lose A.J. Pollock. There’s no easy way to lose Patrick Corbin. The expectations for the Diamondbacks aren’t going to be high, because of the talent they’ve already lost. Given that, they’ve turned into an easy team to overlook. But it’s interesting to see what’s been going on this offseason. After how good the defense just was, the Diamondbacks are moving forward without Jeff Mathis. They’re going to have Jake Lamb try to learn first base. Wilmer Flores is going to take over at second base. And Ketel Marte is moving to center field. For the second offseason in a row, a team is going to try to plug a hole in center with a second baseman.

Read the rest of this entry »