The Opportunity in Front of the Reds

Last year’s Reds won 67 games. They won just four more games than the Marlins, and they won just five more games than the White Sox. They won 29 fewer games than the division-rival Brewers, and they won 28 fewer games than the division-rival Cubs. The previous year, the Reds had won 68 games. The year before that, they’d won 68. The year before that, they’d won 64. There’s been a running joke that the Effectively Wild podcast never talks about the Reds. That’s not actually true, but they’ve rarely been brought up on purpose.

And now, as you know, the Reds are making noise. They’re not signing Bryce Harper, and they’re not signing Manny Machado, but they did acquire Yasiel Puig, and they did acquire Alex Wood. They traded for Tanner Roark, and, on Monday, they traded for Sonny Gray. Gray is the one player under contract beyond just 2019. The Reds haven’t given the farm away or anything like that, but they have depleted their own longer-term resources. Clearly, the Reds have grown tired of being forgettable.

And that might well be the biggest behavioral driver. As an organization, they might’ve simply decided they wanted to be more competitive. It’s what so many people have wanted to see from more teams. As a fan, you want to go into a year with higher expectations. But there could also be a particular opportunity here. It’s worth examining the context in which the Reds are going to play.

Read the rest of this entry »


HOF Announcement Day: What to Watch

With the Hall of Fame announcement of the 2019 Class set for this evening, many baseball fans are eagerly awaiting the 6 PM EST arrival of results. We perused our Tracker and uncovered voting trends for most of the candidates on the ballot for you to enjoy while you’re waiting to pop the champagne. If you’re from Seattle or Toronto, we would suggest that you go ahead and book a Cooperstown hotel for July’s induction weekend as soon as you’re finished reading. If you’re a New Yorker, pack up the car and bring enough lawn chairs for 50,000 others. Here is a rundown of the vote through 226 ballots, ordered by current vote percentage in the tracker:

Mariano Rivera (226-of-226, 100%)

Spoiler alert: Mariano Rivera will be elected to the Hall of Fame later this evening. He almost certainly won’t be elected unanimously, but he could conceivably top Ken Griffey Jr.’s record-setting 99.32% share. In order to outpace Grifey’s 437-of-440 mark, Rivera can miss no more than two votes, since the number of ballots cast is expected to be be fewer than it was in 2016.

Highest BBWAA Vote Shares
Rank Inductee Year Vote %
1 Ken Griffey Jr. 2016 99.32%
2 Tom Seaver 1992 98.84%
3 Nolan Ryan 1999 98.79%
4 Cal Ripken Jr. 2007 98.53%
5 Ty Cobb 1936 98.23%
6 George Brett 1999 98.19%
7 Hank Aaron 1982 97.83%
8 Tony Gwynn 2007 97.61%
9 Randy Johnson 2015 97.27%
10 Greg Maddux 2014 97.20%
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Rivera will become the second relief pitcher elected by the BBWAA in as many years, following Trevor Hoffman’s induction a year ago – not to mention the Today’s Game Committee’s selection of Lee Smith just one month ago. In an interview for Mark Newman’s Yankee Legends, Hoffman said of Rivera, “He has been a great ambassador for the game and he’ll be a welcome addition here.”

Rivera is set to become to first pure reliever inducted into the Hall of Fame on his first opportunity. Dennis Eckersley received 83.2% in 2004, but he spent the first 12 seasons of his career predominantly working as a starting pitcher before shifting to the bullpen full-time in 1997.

Roy Halladay (210-of-226, 92.9%)

Roy Halladay stands a very good chance at posthumously becoming the 56th first-ballot Hall of Famer. All types of voters have taken to his candidacy, checking his name at least 85% of the time on every ballot size except zero-to-four player ones. The current estimate is that he will need a “yes” vote on 53.2% of the remaining ballots to clear the 75% threshold.

The most any candidate has ever dropped in his pre-announcement to post-announcement totals is Mike Mussina, who fell 11.0% in 2015. Halladay’s percentage could fall that far and he’d still be inducted with more than 80% of the vote.

Will 90% of voters vote for Halladay? A vote share that high for a starting pitcher is actually much rarer than you’d think.

Highest Vote Shares for SPs
Candidate Percentage
Tom Seaver 98.8%
Nolan Ryan 98.8%
Randy Johnson 97.3%
Greg Maddux 97.2%
Steve Carlton 95.6%
Bob Feller 93.8%
Jim Palmer 92.6%
Tom Glavine 91.9%
Pedro Martinez 91.1%
Christy Mathewson 90.7%
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

He could become the 11th starting pitcher in history to receive 90% of the vote if he stays above that mark.

Regardless of where his vote share ends up, it is a near-certainty he will be inducted into Cooperstown as one of the all-time greats, and next July will be a celebration of the life one of baseball’s best.

Edgar Martinez (204-of-226, 90.3%)

After falling 20 votes short in 2018, Edgar Martinez fans should be encouraged by the DH’s early returns. He’s seen 46 of his “no” voters from last year reveal their ballots and has received a “yes” vote from 26 of them. Incorporating one lost vote, he is currently at +25. There is always a degree of uncertainty in how the electorate will change from one year to the next, but he’s in great shape.

Since the BBWAA returned to annual voting in 1966, there have been seven instances of a candidate receiving at least 55% of the vote in their penultimate year on the ballot. All seven have been inducted eventually, though some needed help from a small committee to gain entry. Martinez is the third player in the last 15 years to reach 65% of the vote entering their final try. His situation compares well to the previous two.

Edgar Martinez Compared To HOF History
Candidate Penultimate % Penultimate Yr Final Yr %
Jim Rice 72.2% 2008 76.4%
Tim Raines 69.8% 2016 86.0%
Edgar Martinez 70.4% 2018 TBD
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Like Raines, Martinez had a strong campaign elevate his candidacy. He went from 27% to 43.4% to 58.6% to 70.4% of the vote, and appears primed to hear his name announced today, becoming the second player in three years to earn election in their final year of eligibility.

One last note of intrigue concerns whether Martinez can set the record for the highest vote share for a player in their final year. Currently, Tim Raines holds that record with 86.0% in 2017. Can Martinez remain that high? He’s dropped more than that in previous years, but so too had Raines.

Edgar Martinez Compared To Tim Raines
Candidate Yr9 Final-Pre Yr10 Pre Yr10 Final Yr10 Final-Pre Diff (Yr10-Yr9 Split)
Tim Raines -5.6% 88.8% 86.0% -2.8% 2.8%
Edgar Martinez -6.9% 90.3% TBD TBD TBD
SOURCE: HOF Tracker

If the difference between his final and pre-announcement results increases by the same amount as Raines’ did, 90.2% would be the mark to target in order to beat Raines’ record.

Mike Mussina (184-of-226, 81.4%)

Mussina emerged early in this cycle as the ballot’s most interesting bubble candidate. He received 63.5% of the vote last year, just 49 votes shy of election.

A more detailed breakdown of Mussina’s chances was published here last week, but many ballots have been revealed since then.

He’s only received one additional vote on these new ballots, but it was from a voter who voted only for the four inductees last year, a “Small Hall, no PED” voter. That group still likely comprises the majority of remaining voters, so for Mussina to change a mind there bodes well for his chances.

This evening, Mussina fans should hope he once again experiences a post-announcement surge.

Mike Mussina’s HOF Progress
Year Yr0 ‘Pre’ % Yr0 ‘Post’ % Yr1 ‘Pre’ % Yr1 ‘Post’ % Pre’ Gain Post” Gain
2017 50.2% 35.9% 59.0% 42.5% 8.8% 6.6%
2018 59.0% 42.5% 70.0% 54.3% 11.0% 11.8%
2019 70.0% 54.3% 81.4% TBD 11.6% TBD
SOURCE: HOF Tracker

Since inactive voters began losing voting eligibility, Mussina’s post-announcement gains have by and large kept pace with his pre-announcement gains percentage-wise. He needs an overall gain of 11.5% to clear 75%. If the pattern holds, he’ll be agonizingly close to the votes he needs.

It’s also worth noting that players who have been in the 80% range have seen the differential between their pre-announcement and final share shrink. After drops of 6.7%, 6.3%, and 5.6% the year before they were each elected, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, and Raines saw their final shares decrease by only 1.4%, 3.3%, and 2.8% when they crossed 75%. If Mussina’s gap shrinks, that would help a lot.

Barry Bonds (161-of-226, 71.2%) and Roger Clemens (162-of-226, 71.7%)

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are grouped together here because their situations are virtually identical. One is arguably the greatest player of all-time; the other is arguably among the greatest pitchers of all-time. They would have been in the Hall of Fame years ago if not for their connections to performance-enhancing drugs. Instead, they have been passed over six times. Clemens reached 57.3% last year, while Bonds got to 56.4%.

Both men have seen virtually no change in support from 2017 to now; Bonds has netted just four public votes in the last two cycles, with Clemens gaining six. So is there any hope that these two make it to Cooperstown on the BBWAA’s ballot?

Well, both candidates are much closer to the 75% threshold now than they were just a few years back. After each landed in almost exactly the same spot from 2013 to 2015, the duo has seen a series of favorable events fall their way.

The Hall reduced the window of eligibility for players to be considered from 15 to 10 years prior to the 2015 election. While seemingly hurting their chances by allotting them fewer opportunities on the ballot, Bonds and Clemens may have actually benefited, as the 10-year limit has coincided with a number of players making large gains in an effort by voters to get worthy players inducted before their time runs out.

Of much greater aid to Bonds and Clemens was the Hall’s decision to dramatically decrease the voter pool prior to the 2016 election, which meant revoking the voting rights of honorary BBWAA members who had not held active status within the last 10 years. This rule change preceded jumps of 7.7% and 7.5% for Clemens and Bonds, respectively, in 2016.

The very next year, the Today’s Game Committee inducted Bud Selig to the Hall of Fame, nearly unanimously. Pandamonium ensued following the selection of the man who presided over the Steroid Era and chose to ignore what was happening in the sport, and as a result, a large number of voters began supporting Bonds and Clemens, feeling as though there is no reason they should be kept out if Selig was already enshrined. Clemens tacked on an additional 8.9% and Bonds increased his share by 9.5%.

As already mentioned, the support for these two has hit a wall in the two years since. Support will continue to grow slowly due to voter turnover as new voters enter the pool and older voters lose eligibility. Since the election of Bud Selig, public first-time voters have overwhelmingly supported both – Clemens at 31-of-35 and Bonds at a 30-of-35 clip.

Still, some chips have to fall the right way for Bonds and Clemens to have a shot at BBWAA induction. Much like with Curt Schilling, the first hurdle is clearing 60% of the vote. It may not be as dramatic as with other candidates, but it is likely that there are voters who will begin to support Bonds and Clemens if, say, a 60-65% majority of their peers have already done so.

It is also conceivable that a handful of voters are simply waiting until 2022 – the final time Bonds and Clemens will appear on the writers’ ballot – to check those two boxes.

A lot can happen over the course of three years. Perhaps there will be yet another referendum by the Hall that, whether intentionally or inadvertently, will present a more favorable outlook for the two of the arguably most widely debated candidates in history.

Curt Schilling (158-of-226, 69.9%)

After Schilling praised a photo of a t-shirt that advocated the lynching of journalists, his support dropped from 52.3% to 45.0%. He recovered most of that lost support in the 2018 cycle, rising to 51.2%, but along the way lost two valuable years of eligibility. At +17, he’s been among the big gainers so far this cycle, but it might be too little, too late.

The most important benchmark for Schilling’s eventual candidacy is clearing 60%. Only Gil Hodges has cleared that mark with the BBWAA and failed to later make the Hall of Fame. Schilling has three more tries left before his Hall fate is left in the hands of small committees. If Mussina is elected this year, Schilling will be the top returning candidate without a hard link to performance-enhancing drugs, though his offensive and inflammatory public persona persists. In recent years, top returners without a tie to PEDs have usually been inducted in short order.

Top Ballot Returners
Year #1 Returnee Percentage #2 Returnee Percentage
2016 Mike Piazza (69.9%) 83.0% Jeff Bagwell (55.7%) 71.6%
2017 Jeff Bagwell (71.4%) 86.2% Tim Raines (69.9) 86.0%
2018 Trevor Hoffman (74.0%) 79.9% Vladimir Guerrero (71.7%) 92.9%
2019 Edgar Martinez (70.4%) TBD Mike Mussina (63.5%) TBD
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference and the HOF Tracker

Piazza, Raines, Hoffman, and Vladimir Guerrero were all inducted in their first try as one of the top two returning clean candidates. Martinez is expected to follow suit, and Mussina might as well.

At 60%, Schilling would need to average a gain of just 5% per year to make it to 75%. If he does better, his chances increase that much more. He won’t be elected today, but the important thing to look at when assessing his future candidacy will be whether or not he can clear into the 60s and whether Mussina is elected.

Larry Walker (149-of-226, 65.9%)

A breakdown of Larry Walker’s candidacy was explored in full last week, with some of the findings updated below following the influx of 49 ballots since then.

After seeing a huge uptick in public ballot support (+47 net gained votes so far) and appearing on 75.8% of all ballots of at least seven votes cast, Walker appears primed for a huge vote increase this year. Come 2020, there is a chance Walker is in a very similar position to where Mussina finds himself now. Ballot space will be cleared as four or five candidates – including Fred McGriff – who received a sizable vote total will exit the ballot in advance of next year. As with McGriff and Martinez, it is quite common for candidates to receive an additional boost in their final year of BBWAA eligibility.

The sudden, dramatic increase Walker has experienced is rather unprecedented, and it should allow him to clear 55% with relative ease. He’d be hard-pressed to see such a jump next year, but then again, nobody foresaw his current trends as a possibility either.

Fred McGriff (89-of-226, 39.4%)

Three years ago, Alan Trammell entered his final year of eligibility with the BBWAA with just 25.1% support. He went +39 among public, returning voters en route to surpassing 40%, then was promptly elected his first try in front of a small committee.

Smith didn’t enjoy the same final-year bump, in no small part due to the presence of Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Guerrero all debuting alongside him, but he had previously cleared 50% in 2012. He was elected unanimously by the Today’s Game Committee last month.

McGriff’s best path towards induction is to follow in their footsteps and clear 40%. If he can do that, he might be viewed favorably when his name is put before a committee in a few years. Right now, he’s trending in the upper 30s, but has typically fared better with later ballots than earlier ones. Whether that holds now that he has been getting additions from voters who vote for 10 players remains to be seen.

His meteoric rise is one of the biggest stories of the cycle, however, and it will be extremely interesting to see if he ends up over 40%.

Largest Swings On Public Ballots
Rank Year Candidate Net +/- (Public Ballots)
1 2018 Vladimir Guerrero +56
2 2016 Edgar Martinez +51
3 2017 Edgar Martinez +48
4 2019 Larry Walker +47
5 2019 Fred McGriff* +45
6 2018 Larry Walker +40
T7 2016 Alan Trammell* +39
T7 2016 Mike Mussina +39
T9 2018 Edgar Martinez +37
T9 2017 Tim Raines* +37
11 2017 Jeff Bagwell +33
12 2016 Jeff Bagwell +32
T13 2018 Mike Mussina +31
T13 2016 Tim Raines +31
T13 2016 Curt Schilling +31
T16 2017 Barry Bonds +27
T16 2017 Roger Clemens +27
T18 2017 Mike Mussina +26
T18 2017 Trevor Hoffman +26
20 2019 Edgar Martinez* +25
*Final Chance on Ballot
Elected by BBWAA
SOURCE: Ryan Thibodaux

Omar Vizquel (85/226, 37.6%)

In just his second year of eligibility, Omar Vizquel has received the third-most “+1s” of any candidate, with 23. It seems unlikely that he can cross 50%, though if he does, eventual induction would seem to be assured; only one candidate not on the current ballot has ever received 50% of the BBWAA vote and not made the Hall of Fame, though some have needed help from the committees.

Even if Vizquel settles in around 46 to 48%, he has eight more years of eligibility to get the required remaining votes. With fewer players coming onto the ballot in the coming years who are expected to draw significant support, Vizquel could quickly emerge as a candidate for rapid increases.

Only a small handful of players have ever cleared 40% and not gotten into the Hall of Fame, namely Hodges, Marty Marion, Maury Wills, Roger Maris, Tony Oliva, and Steve Garvey.

Vizquel fans should look to 45% as a reasonable target this year, as that’s where most of the above names stopped making further progress.

Manny Ramirez (58-of-226, 25.7%)

Unfortunately for Ramirez, he remains stuck in PED-tainted purgatory on the Hall ballot. After collecting a vote share of 23.8% as a first-time eligible candidate in 2017 and dipping slightly to 22.0% in 2018, he appears set to land right around those two marks yet again. The reasoning behind both why his vote total has been stagnant and is unlikely to change much year-to-year is simple: he is the only player discussed here to be handed a suspension by MLB for a positive PED test, an event that occurred multiple times. For a player who most would agree statistically merits enshrinement, the PED stain is a major obstacle to overcome. One positive sign for Ramirez is that a number of voters may begin to consider him as ballot space permits, holding to the philosophy that he deserves a vote, but not at the expense of another worthy candidate who was never disciplined by MLB for PED usage.

Scott Rolen (48-of-226, 21.2%)

Scott Rolen has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ballot logjam easing. Of those candidates who received under 20% of the vote last year, he has seen the biggest net increase in votes from returning voters, at +16.

His initial vote share of 10.2% would be historically low for a candidate eventually elected by the BBWAA, but the recent past provides more reason for optimism if Rolen can see a jump to around 19%. In his fifth year of eligibility, Walker received votes on 11.8% of ballots cast and is now expected to clear 50% handily. Martinez bottomed out with 25.2% in his fifth year, and is now on the doorstep of Cooperstown.

Walker and Martinez are but two examples. Mussina went from 20.3% to 63.5% in four years and is expected to receive yet another large jump. If Rolen can quickly distinguish himself from other candidates, he could ride a similar wave of momentum and avoid languishing at the bottom of the ballot for too long.

In that vein, it’s worth watching where he lands relative to Ramirez, Todd Helton, Jeff Kent, and Billy Wagner this year. With four or five of the top candidates exiting the ballot either by election or the expiration of their eligibility, some of these candidates could enter into the top 10 next cycle, which has served as a good indicator of future enshrinement in recent years. From 2007 to 2016, 33 different players ranked in the top 10 of a ballot share at least one time, though Mark McGwire, Bonds, and Clemens all have ties to performance-enhancing drugs. If Martinez and Mussina are both elected, 26 of the 30 candidates without ties to PEDs will already have been elected, and three of the remaining four will be top 10 on this ballot.

Todd Helton (40-of-226, 17.7%)

Todd Helton is perhaps the most intriguing candidate that nobody is paying attention to. In his first ballot appearance, he is performing significantly better than Rolen did pre-announcement a year ago, and the two are within a handful of votes. As touched on last week, the number of votes on any particular ballot has had minimal correlation with the frequency of Helton’s votes. Through 226 public ballots, he has gotten the nod on 25 of 127 (19.7%) ballots on which the maximum 10 spots were utilized. That figure has dropped marginally to 15.2% on all other ballots, and Helton’s name has actually been included most frequently on ballots in the 7-8 vote range (20.6%).

Why is this the case? Helton’s supporters are negatively correlated with Bonds and Clemens voters. On 160 ballots with both Bonds and Clemens, Helton has just 18 votes (11.3%), and just one on a ballot that did not feature 10 checkmarks. However, that ratio has nearly tripled when Bonds and Clemens aren’t chosen; he is 22-for-66 here, a 33.3% share.

The catch here is that, when Bonds and Clemens are excluded, there is the same amount of space available for a Helton vote as there is on a full ballot that includes them. In fact, there may be as much space on a six or seven-player ballot in the former category, as many Bonds and Clemens supporters also vote for Ramirez and/or Sammy Sosa, whereas they are almost always out of consideration for voters who exclude Bonds and Clemens from their ballots.

Since post-announcement reveals have been notoriously unkind to those accused of PED usage, it is very possible that Helton will be the rare candidate who winds up finishing ahead of where he currently tracking.

Jeff Kent (38-of-226, 16.8%)

Kent might be the best example of a candidate who has been lost in the shuffle on the ballot. A player known more for his consistency than anything else, Kent suffers from sharing a ballot with others who were perceived as consummate superstars. He won the 2000 NL MVP Award, but did not record any other top-five finishes.

With just four years of eligibility remaining after 2019, Kent probably won’t ever sniff election by the writers. He does seem like a prime candidate for serious consideration by a small committee somewhere down the road, though.

Billy Wagner (37-of-226, 16.4%)

The time has come for Wagner to make some headway on the ballot. He has flipped 12 voters from a “no” vote to a “yes” vote and has received a checkmark on 16.4% of ballots. Closers typically see a slight boost in the final results, so it is possible that Wagner could wind up at around 20% of the final vote. With the ballot logjam easing, Wagner is a prime candidate to make up a ton of ground in the next few years. He should benefit from a ballot that won’t feature Rivera, Hoffman, or Smith for the first time since Wagner’s 2016 ballot debut.

In theory, Rivera’s tremendous support could draw more attention to the career Wagner authored. Among pitchers to debut in the live-ball era and throw at least 500 innings, Wagner ranks at or near the very top of the leaderboard in virtually every rate stat there is. It stands to reason that Wagner could benefit reasonably well from an internet push, much like Tim Raines was likely aided by Jonah Keri spearheading an artfully-crafted campaign in his honor.

Former Hoffman and Smith voters may well begin to offer some newfound support to Wagner once he is the primary reliever in the spotlight next year.

Gary Sheffield (31-of-226, 13.7%)

As many others have already written, Gary Sheffield has been a victim of the deep pool of candidates throughout his tenure on the ballot. In his first four years of eligibility, Sheffield reeled in 11.7%, 11.6%, 13.3%, and 11.1% shares. Despite 509 home runs and 62.1 WAR, he’s yet to gain much traction with the voters.

Sheffield does have a small link to steroids, but it is unclear how much that suppresses his reputation with the voters. A few other factors may very well be equally (or more) responsible for his lack of support. Like Walker, Sheffield was oft-injured, particularly earlier in his career.

He wore eight different uniforms – none for more than parts of six seasons – and played his most games for the Marlins, a franchise that has lacked the attention paid to to larger-market clubs. The lack of association with one single franchise has likely inhibited his votes to an extent.

Sheffield also comes with a less-than-stellar defensive reputation, one not offset by despite being one of baseball’s most feared hitters – by pitchers and third-base coaches – of his era.

Sheffield probably won’t gain much ground this year, but perhaps when the ballot opens up we will have more knowledge of what exactly has kept his support depressed to this extent. His 18.1% showing on 10-player ballots is up from the 13.3% he sported last year, and going forward that number should continue to trend upward, in all likelihood.

Sammy Sosa (25-of-226, 11.1%)

Sosa was one of four players – along with Kent, Sheffield, and Wagner – who lost support in 2018 from returning voters who had also publicly revealed their ballot the previous year. He did, however, post a decent 4-for-13 showing among public first-time voters and is 3-for-8 so far this year. He has also rebounded slightly from last year, earning back two votes he lost in 2018. He is assured of remaining on the ballot yet again, and he is likely to finish somewhere between 8-10%.

There doesn’t appear to much to look forward to here for Sosa, but perhaps he can eventually surpass the 12.5% high-water mark that he received way back in 2013, his first year of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot. If nothing else, he’s the last candidate guaranteed to return to the 2020 ballot and should stay on for all 10 years before his candidacy moves on to a committee.

Andruw Jones (19-of-226, 8.4%)

One of the biggest questions leading up to the 2018 announcement was whether Andruw Jones would receive the requisite number of votes to remain on the ballot for a second year. He ended up seeing a boost on the ballots which did not reveal prior to the announcement and finished with 7.3%. So far, he has been checked on 19 ballots, with just 12 of his 2018 voters revealing. Nine of those voters voted for him again, and he has also received votes from six voters who did not vote for him in 2018 and four voters who are new to the voting bloc.

He could see modest gains when the results are announced this evening, but if nothing else, he should once again remain above the 5% cutoff for another year.

Andy Pettitte (15-of-226, 6.6%)

Every year, there seems to be one candidate who is in serious danger of being removed from the ballot for further consideration. In 2016, Jim Edmonds fell off the ballot despite 393 home runs and eight Gold Gloves, while in 2017, five World Series rings couldn’t keep Jorge Posada’s candidacy afloat. Last year, the aforementioned Jones skated by with 31 votes, nine above the minimum. With 15 votes on the 226 publicly revealed ballots, Andy Pettitte would appear to be safe at first glance. His vote share has been steadily declining, however; he was on eight of the first 48 ballots and has been on just seven of the last 178. That latter vote share of under 4% has corresponded with more voters from chapters other than New York revealing their ballots, which doesn’t help Pettitte’s chances of clearing the 5% threshold. He only needs six more voters to reach 5%, however, so it is not a reach.

Others

Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Miguel Tejada, and Michael Young each have two or three votes among published ballots, but none is even at 1.5%. The only candidate in Tracker history to clear the 5% minimum to remain on the ballot with less than 4% at announcement time is Nomar Garciaparra in 2015. He received 5.5% of the vote despite being on only 2.0% of pre-announcement ballots. He gives these four a small amount of hope.


Asdrubal Cabrera Can’t Find Deal with Contending Team, Signs with Rangers

If we consider 2018 performance and 2019 projections, the Texas Rangers signing Asdrubal Cabrera for one year and $3.5 million might be the biggest bargain a team got for a player taking a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal had the news first, with Jeff Passan coming through with the contract. After five playoff appearances in seven years from 2010 through 2016, the Rangers fell to third place in 2017, then cut $30 million in payroll last season on their way to a last place campaign. The team appears to be cutting even more this season, but has made a handful of interesting cheaper, short-term moves, adding Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Shelby Miller, and Jesse Chavez. We can add Asdrubal Cabrera to that list.

In our list of Top 50 free agents, Cabrera ranked 27th, just behind Andrew Miller and ahead of Zach Britton. Kiley McDaniel thought Cabrera was in line for a two-year deal worth $16 million; the crowd agreed on the length though had him making a couple million dollars more per season. Eric Longenhagen described Cabrera like this:

The advent of fluid defensive positioning has enabled aging infielders to stay at shortstop longer, and Cabrera, who has plus hands and arm strength but quickly dwindling lateral range, is among them. Fold in a resilient, well-rounded offensive profile, and Cabrera still has value as a multi-positional infielder despite some clear deficiencies. He’s amassed about 2.5 annual WAR during the last half-decade and will continue getting short-term deals until his bat declines beneath playability.

In Texas, Elvis Andrus plays shortstop and Rougned Odor plays second base, leaving Cabrera as the best option at third. Cabrera’s positional flexibility leaves open the possibility that 27-year-old Patrick Wisdom could still earn his way to playing time and allow Cabrera to move around the diamond, but the more likely scenario is that Cabrera simply makes third base his home. Defensively, that’s is probably his best position, as he lacks the range to play shortstop regularly and range is less of an issue at third base compared to second.

Most teams already have decent third basemen. and the market was full of second basemen this offseason, so it is possible that Cabrera’s declining range hurt in terms of opportunities. He did struggle offensively after his trade from the Mets to the Phillies, but we are talking about under 200 plate appearances. On the season, Cabrera put up a 111 wRC+, nearly matching his 112 mark from the previous season. Factoring in a little decline, Cabrera should be average or better offensively and about the same defensively at third base. The Rangers just made themselves two wins better with barely any investment. If he plays well, the team should be able to trade him for a prospect who might help them down the line.


Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 1/22/19

2:01
Meg Rowley: Dear readers, a moment. I have to sort out a small editorial matter and then will be right with you.

2:01
Meg Rowley: Appreciate your patience.

2:03
Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat.

2:03
Lunar verLander: Do you think there will be another free agent spring training camp like there was last year?

2:04
Meg Rowley: I wouldn’t be surprised, although I don’t have a great beat on how effective players thought that was last year, and of course it all depends on the timing of signings.

2:05
Meg Rowley: Players are understandably agitated about this winter not course correcting last year. They are increasingly vocal about their objections.

Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

Well, at least expectations have been tempered quite a bit. After all, this is a team that finished last in the American League in runs scored with Manny Machado for half a season, and even if Jonathan Schoop was disappointing and Adam Jones is in steep decline, they at least combined for an OPS above .700, which is … something. Read the rest of this entry »


The Envelope Please: Our Hall of Fame Crowdsource Ballot Results

FanGraphs readers want their Hall of Famers, and they want ’em now! That’s the take-home message from the results of our inaugural Hall of Fame Crowdsource Ballot, for which we invited registered users of our site to partake in our version of the real thing. To an even greater degree than the Baseball Writers Association of America — which over the past five years has elected 16 candidates, more than any other five-year stretch in the institution’s history, while using more slots per ballot than at any time since 1966 — our voters went deep, and they weren’t shy about honoring the ballot’s best.

A total of 1,213 users (including some of our staff) cast their electronic ballots (something the Hall of Fame currently does not yet have); they could vote for up to 10 candidates while adhering to the same December 31, 2018 deadline as the voters. Remarkably, more than three-quarters of our voters — 77.6% — used all 10 slots, well above the rate in the @NotMrTibbs Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker (55.8% of the 217 ballots as of midnight ET on Monday), and well beyond the modern BBWAA record of 51%, set in 2015. Our voters averaged a generous 9.41 votes per ballot, again ahead of both the current Tracker (8.61) and the modern BBWAA record (8.46), set last year.

Oh, you want to know who we elected? No fewer than seven of the 35 candidates received at least 75% of the vote from our crowd. Keep in mind, that’s two more than in any actual Hall of Fame class, and three more than in any class besides the 1936 inaugural one (Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Babe Ruth, and Honus Wagner). Not only did our users anoint the three candidates who appear to be locks this year (Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, and Mariano Rivera) and the man on the bubble (Mike Mussina), they waved in the slate’s two most controversial candidates, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, and still had ample room to include Larry Walker as well. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 54 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Rays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Wander Franco 17.9 R SS 2021 65
2 Brendan McKay 23.1 A+ LHP/1B 2019 60
3 Brent Honeywell 23.8 AAA RHP 2019 55
4 Vidal Brujan 21.0 A+ 2B 2021 55
5 Brandon Lowe 24.5 AAA 2B 2019 50
6 Jesus Sanchez 21.3 AA RF 2020 50
7 Ronaldo Hernandez 21.2 A C 2022 50
8 Matthew Liberatore 19.2 R LHP 2022 50
9 Nick Solak 24.0 AA 2B 2020 50
10 Shane Baz 19.6 R RHP 2022 50
11 Lucius Fox 21.6 AA SS 2021 45+
12 Nathaniel Lowe 23.5 AAA 1B 2019 45+
13 Moises Gomez 20.4 A RF 2022 45
14 Joe McCarthy 24.9 AAA LF 2019 45
15 Josh Lowe 21.0 A+ CF 2021 45
16 Taylor Walls 22.5 A SS 2020 45
17 Resly Linares 21.1 A LHP 2021 45
18 Anthony Banda 25.4 MLB LHP 2019 45
19 Nick Schnell 18.8 R CF 2022 45
20 Shane McClanahan 21.7 R LHP 2020 45
21 Tyler Frank 22.0 A- 2B 2021 45
22 Jose De Leon 26.5 MLB RHP 2019 40+
23 Drew Strotman 22.4 A RHP 2020 40+
24 Colin Poche 25.0 AAA LHP 2019 40+
25 Garrett Whitley 21.9 A CF 2021 40+
26 Tanner Dodson 21.7 A- RHP/CF 2021 40+
27 Jelfry Marte 17.8 R SS 2023 40
28 Alejandro Pie 16.4 None SS 2024 40
29 Tobias Myers 20.5 A RHP 2022 40
30 Ian Gibaut 25.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
31 Michael Perez 26.5 MLB C 2019 40
32 Joe Peguero 21.7 R RHP 2022 40
33 Nick Ciuffo 23.9 AAA C 2020 40
34 Matt Krook 24.3 AA LHP 2019 40
35 Alberto Figuereo 18.7 R 2B 2023 40
36 Ryan Boldt 24.2 AA LF 2020 40
37 Curtis Taylor 23.5 AA RHP 2020 40
38 Chris Betts 21.9 A C 2021 40
39 Abiezel Ramirez 19.0 R SS 2023 40
40 Kean Wong 23.8 AAA 2B 2019 40
41 Tristan Gray 22.8 A+ 2B 2020 40
42 Jermaine Palacios 22.5 AA SS 2020 40
43 Orlando Romero 22.3 A+ RHP 2020 40
44 Miguel Lara 21.5 R RHP 2022 40
45 Michael Mercado 19.8 A- RHP 2022 40
46 Sandy Gaston 17.1 None RHP 2023 40
47 Austin Franklin 21.3 A RHP 2021 35+
48 Ford Proctor 22.1 A- SS 2022 35+
49 Osmy Gregorio 20.7 A- SS 2022 35+
50 Taj Bradley 17.8 R RHP 2023 35+
51 Matthew Peguero 19.0 R RHP 2023 35+
52 Grant Witherspoon 22.3 R RF 2021 35+
53 Edgardo Rodriguez 18.1 R C 2023 35+
54 Victor Munoz 18.1 R RHP 2023 35+

65 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 17.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 65
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/65 60/65 30/55 60/60 45/50 60/60

Franco was identified as a top tier player in his age group as early as 12 or 13, and was seen regularly by scouts by age 14. Sometimes, precocious prospects are workout warriors or have early physical peaks, but Franco isn’t either of those. He essentially hasn’t failed on a baseball field in any meaningful way since puberty, with his success punctuated by a 2018 pro debut in which he outpaced the game’s most recent phenom, No. 1 overall prospect Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., in just about every way, at the same level, at the same age. Franco signed for the largest bonus in the 2017 July 2nd class ($3.825 million) and was seen as the best player in the class by a good margin. There were some questions about his occasionally disinterested style of play as an amateur, but he likely already had a deal done and didn’t have anything to play for in later workouts. He’s literally always been the best player on any field he’s been on, usually by a lot. The raw tools are accordingly loud, and match his stats: at least a plus hit tool with explosive bat speed, elite bat and body control, and an advanced sense of the zone to go along with plus raw power, plus speed, a plus arm, and a real chance to stick at shortstop. Franco is about as close as you’ll see to a perfect prospect at this point, with questions only arising if you really nitpick — the main one being that Franco isn’t tall — but he already has huge power, so it matters less that he isn’t physically projectable. The Rays have indicated they will start Franco at Low-A in 2019 and, so long as he keeps performing, keep pushing him until he’s challenged so he can experience adversity before he reaches the big leagues. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Franco move across multiple levels, but we wouldn’t expect quite a Juan Soto-esque pace of promotion, and a 2019 MLB debut seems incredibly unlikely, given the Rays’ upper-level infield glut and the service time implications. Rays officials have likened their immediate impression of Franco, as a player and person, to Evan Longoria. Teammates respond to him, and there isn’t even a whiff of the makeup concern some scouts conjured up as an amateur. Franco seems to be the sole author of his potential at this point.

60 FV Prospects

2. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Louisville (TBR)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 212 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 65/65 40/55 35/30 45/50 60/60
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/55 50/55 55/60 91-95 / 96

McKay was a cold-weather, two-way high school prospect with average tools. As is the case with many Louisville commits, his asking price was high. He got to campus and took such an immediate step forward that he was invited to play for college Team USA after just his freshman year. His tools steadily progressed and entering his draft spring, McKay was showing effortless 65-grade raw power, and above-average raw stuff on the mound. On draft day, we think a slight majority of teams preferred McKay as a hitter (the two of us were split). But every MLB team had him as a first round talent both ways, so it seemed inevitable that he would be the rare player who would get a chance to do both in pro ball so his team could at least have time to determine which path was the right one if he couldn’t do both. That open-minded approach has driven how Tampa Bay has developed McKay. In 2018, his offense was fine — he was unlucky by advanced and TrackMan metrics — while he really broke out as a pitcher, regularly showing all the best stuff that he had only flashed in college. McKay leaned on a low-to-mid-90s fastball and didn’t have trouble navigating lineups because of his above average to plus command of the pitch. A plus-flashing curveball is his best secondary offering, but his cutter and changeup are both above-average, giving him No. 2 or 3 starter upside, and he’s not a long way off from reaching it. Shohei Ohtani’s usage is the only precedent for how McKay might be handled: a standout, playoff rotation-caliber starter and DH. Given how baseball is valuing first base/DH players, there appears to be much more value on the mound for McKay, but there’s still a real chance he turns into something like a 110 wRC+ hitter who could make a club just on the merits of his hitting and fielding ability as a first baseman, and scouts have always raved about his makeup and work ethic. The most exciting scenario would be if Tampa Bay paired him with a two-way righty (they currently have one in Tanner Dodson and are rumored to be adding a second in Matt Davidson) and pull the gambit Joe Maddon has tried before: rotating righty and lefty pitchers between the mound and a spot in the field based on the matchups. It could be an effective strategy on its own while enabling roster flexibility in other areas, and it saves matchup relievers until later in the game. Of course, nobody wants the Rays to get too cute and spoil what might just be a traditional, mid-rotation profile.

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Walters State JC (TN) (TBR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 60/65 55/55 45/50 45/55 92-94 / 97

Honeywell felt forearm tightness while throwing live batting practice to Wilson Ramos in late February, and five days later Dr. James Andrews was reconstructing his UCL. It was the first of several season-ending injuries Rays prospects would sustain early in the year, and it delayed Honeywell’s run at a potential Rookie of the Year award. A creative sequencer, Honeywell’s deep, unique repertoire is unlike any other pitcher in the minors. Though his fastball touches 98, his stuff is so diverse that he never has to pitch off of it. He can lob his curveball in for strikes, induce weak contact early in counts by throwing a cutter when hitters are sitting fastball, and he’ll double and triple up on the changeup. What you see listed in Honeywell’s tool grades as a splitter is actually a screwball. It wobbles home in the 79-82 mph range, while his true changeup is usually a little harder than that. The screwgie is more than a gimmick and can miss bats, though it’s best in moderation because it’s a little easier to identify out of his hand, and hitters are able to recognize it after seeing it multiple times in the same at-bat. Honeywell’s delivery is pretty violent and his TJ was not his first injury, but he’s ready and has No. 2 or 3 starter stuff if it comes back after the surgery. He has been throwing off a mound since early December and should be pitching in games before April is through.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.0 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 45/50 30/45 65/65 50/60 55/55

Five years ago, Brujan was illiterate and living in extreme poverty in the Dominican Republic. Now he’s fluent in multiple languages and has grown so much as an athlete and ballplayer that we think he’d be in the conversation for the 2019 draft’s first pick were he a college player. If you’re willing to look beyond Brujan’s diminutive stature, he leaves nothing to be desired. He is an elite athlete with acute baseball instincts, a dynamic up-the-middle defensive profile, and mature feel for the strike zone. He has always been physical enough to make quality contact and fast enough to make an impact on the bases, but really began driving the ball in 2018 as his frame started to physically mature. He slashed .313/.395/.427 at Low-A before an August promotion to Hi-A, where he slugged a shocking .582. Aside from his size, Brujan’s profile is flawless and he has a chance to be a star.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Maryland (TBR)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 45/55 50/50 40/45 45/45

Lowe (pronounced with a vowel sound like ‘plow’ or ‘allow’) was an under-the-radar, bat-first prospect at Maryland who the Rays picked in the third round. He has always been a second baseman but was never the pedigree type given his position and average at best speed, defense, and arm. He also tore his ACL as a freshman. His indicators were positive–plate discipline, contact skills, bat speed, enough power to profile–and we were high on Lowe entering the year, pegging him as a 45 FV. He went off in 2018, following a fine Double-A look in 2017 by demolishing the level in 2018, then performing even better at Triple-A, earning a big league look, where he put up almost 1.0 WAR in just 43 games. The offense has taken off even more than those highest on him internally had expected, with some chance for 50 hit and 60 game power with passable defense at second, along with versatility to play left field and possibly first base if needed. Lowe is now in the weird prospect spot where he isn’t the highly-drafted, tooled-up brand name type you typically find in the middle of a top 100, but he’s about as low risk a bat as there is with prospect eligibility, and he can also play up the middle, so his six years of control have tons of value to a small market team like the Rays.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/65 30/55 50/50 50/55 60/60

Corner bats with 30-grade plate discipline are scary, but Sanchez has the talent to override his impatience and so far he has performed in spite of it. In possession of a picturesque swing and some of the most electric bat speed in the minors, Sanchez has a .306/.347/.478 career line over four pro seasons, and he’s been young for each of the levels to which he has been assigned. As awestruck as his swing leaves onlookers, it is imperfect and causes him to drive the ball into the ground about 50% of the time. He hits it so hard that it hasn’t mattered yet, and it may not be prudent to tweak Sanchez’s swing so long as he keeps performing, but the ceiling on his power output is huge if his bat path gets dialed in. This is a pretty traditional right field profile, instability and all, and Sanchez has a chance to hit at the heart of a big league lineup. He got a taste of Double-A late last year and should return there in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Colombia (TBR)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/50 35/30 40/50 70/70

Hernandez’s career got off to a slow start in part due to his conversion (he was originally a SS/3B who the Rays asked to catch) but also due to injury, which cost him much of his first pro season. He so dominated the DSL in his second go at it that the Rays had him skip the GCL and sent him right to Princeton the following year. The last two seasons, Hernandez has slugged .500 as a young-for-the-level regular, and he was one homer off the Midwest League lead in 2018. He has above average raw power and sufficient feel to hit that he’ll get to most of it, certainly enough to profile at catcher. While Hernandez is still a below average receiver and inconsistent ball-blocker, he shows enough aptitude for both to project that he’ll be an average defender at maturity, and he has run-stopping arm strength. He’s a top 100 prospect.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Mountain Ridge HS (AZ) (TBR)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/50 55/70 50/55 40/55 92-95 / 97

Oakland’s selection of Kyler Murray seems to have been the catalyst for Liberatore’s draft day slide. He was arguably the best high school pitcher in the class, evaluated heavily early on by the Giants (who picked second), before settling into the 7-13 range by June. When Murray was selected, teams picking behind Oakland suddenly had access to one more player than they had anticipated. It meant Travis Swaggerty was there for Pittsburgh at 10, which meant Grayson Rodriguez was there for Baltimore at 11, and so on. Other teams hadn’t considered the possibility that Libby would fall to them and either hadn’t done a lot of background work, or weren’t comfortable with how he might alter their bonus pool math. When Liberatore was at his best, he’d throw strikes with 93-97 for the first several innings of his starts, show you a 70 curveball, a good change, and alter the timing of his delivery to toy with hitters. He added a slider part way through his junior year and instantly had nascent feel for it. At other times, he’d sit 88-92 with scattershot command and get too cute with Johnny Cuetoshenanigans. But the frame, athleticism, arm strength, and ability to spin are all ideal, and there’s immense ceiling here.

9. Nick Solak, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Louisville (NYY)
Age 24.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 50/50 30/45 60/60 45/50 50/50

Solak was a college teammate of Brendan McKay’s at Louisville, and they’ve both drawn some of the most vociferous makeup raves from scouts of any of the players in the minors. There’s a story going around scouting circles that Solak actually broke one club’s makeup algorithm, scoring higher than they thought was possible. It’s probably not surprising to hear that he’s a grinder type of player who makes the most of his sneaky-good tools. Solak has a pretty level cut, but is an opportunistic enough hitter to know how to lift mistake pitches and use his deceptively-average raw power. He’s a plus runner who projects to play an average second base and be an everyday player, but he can play almost any other position on the field if needed, with an arm that’s just a bit shy of what’s preferred for shortstop. He put up a 19 home run, 21 stolen base season in Triple-A last year and would be penciled in as a top prospect about to be handed an everyday job for almost any other club, but the Rays are insanely well stocked with middle infielders, including arguably the best in the minor leagues in Wander Franco; Vidal Brujan is also ahead of Solak on this list. The Rays like to have a versatile big league roster, but there’s likely a trade coming at some point to clear out spots, with Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Matt Duffy, Yandy Diaz, Daniel Robertson, and Christian Arroyo all seemingly ahead of Solak in the running for three starting spots since first base and designated hitter are also fully manned.

10. Shane Baz, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 40/50 55/60 40/45 92-96 / 98

Other than players who qualify under outdated rules about trading recent draftees, we can’t think of a Player to be Named Later who had a stronger evaluation at the time of trade than Baz, who was part of the Chris Archer deal. The tightly-wound Baz has a repertoire tailored like Marcus Stroman’s: it’s four or five pitches, everything is hard, and his best stuff has glove-side action. Pitchers can succeed without changeups provided their breaking balls give them the tools to deal with opposite-handed hitters. Often, that’s enabled by command. Baz’s delivery is explosive but violent, and he may never have average command, let alone the command necessary to succeed without a change of pace pitch, or something to bisect the plate to his arm side. There’s a chance he’s a reliever but with three plus pitches, he could be elite in that role. If the command and/or a changeup develop, he fits in the middle of a rotation.

45+ FV Prospects

11. Lucius Fox, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Bahamas (SFG)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 35/40 30/40 70/70 45/50 55/55

It wasn’t that long ago that being an international amateur free agent could be more lucrative than subjecting oneself to the domestic draft. Several players with family abroad moved away and reclassified. Fox, who is of Bahamian descent, netted the most lucrative of these deals, signing with San Francisco for $6 million. The industry was surprised when the Giants immediately sent Fox, who was a tantalizing athlete but an undercooked ballplayer, to full-season ball. He didn’t play well, and was traded to Tampa Bay for Matt Moore a few minutes ahead of the 2016 trade deadline. When the Rays performed a post-swap physical on Fox, they discovered a bone bruise in his foot that would end his season, a matter the two clubs settled after the Rays initially sought further compensation. Fox repeated Low-A the following year and started to perform some with the bat. He’s hit for high averages wth no power each of the last two years, and had a strong 2018 Fall League. The lack of power might prevent Fox from being a true average or better regular, and he remains inconsistent on defense, but he’s a top of the scale athlete whose late 2018 showing could be a sign of real growth. If he comes out in 2019 and performs well, we’ll buy it.

Drafted: 13th Round, 2016 from Mississippi State (TBR)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 65/65 50/60 40/35 45/50 50/50

Lowe was nearly anonymous as a prospect until 2018. He played at a high profile Atlanta-area high school (the same one as his brother Josh, who the Rays drafted in first round in 2016), played sparingly for a year at Mercer, then transferred to St. John’s River junior college in Jacksonville, FL, where he hit 17 homers, a feat that got him to Mississippi State for his junior season. He had a solid season for the Bulldogs but was a first base-only prospect with no pedigree who hit five home runs, so you can see why he lasted until the 13th round in the 2016 draft. His hitability translated well that first pro summer and in 2017, which he split across both A-Ball levels at ages 21 and 22. The missing element here is that while Lowe had plus raw power the first time we saw him at Mississippi State, he didn’t have the kind of swing or approach to get the most out of it. This untapped tool and his plate discipline are the reasons he was a 13th rounder and not a 35th rounder who went back to school for his senior year. In 2018, Lowe did a rare thing: he tried to do more damage at the plate and lift the ball a bit more, but was able to keep his contact rates the same while adding game power. Miguel Andujar did this in the Yankees farm system two years in a row and went from an untapped, toolsy prospect who was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft to a Rookie of the Year runner-up; Lowe went from the top of the ‘Others of Note’ section last year to one of the top 150 prospects in the game over a 12 month period. Lowe is a fine defender at first but the value here is all in the bat. Because he’s left-handed, the downside is a platoon option at 1B/DH, though the Rays cycle through those types very quickly. Underlying indicators and TrackMan data suggest Lowe’s very loud 2018 stats aren’t fluky and he may just be a 50 bat with advanced feel for the zone and 60 game power, which is a solid regular. He might be big league ready in the middle of 2019.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (TBR)
Age 20.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/60 35/55 55/50 45/50 55/55

Gomez was a plus-running center field prospect when he signed, but over four seasons, his body has matured in a way that is more Wily Mo Pena than Willy Taveras. He has already moved to a corner and might be limited to left field, but with that heft came power and a 2018 statistical breakout (65 extra-base hits) at Low-A Bowling Green. Gomez has below-average plate discipline, and that kind of flaw in a player near the bottom of the defensive spectrum is pretty scary, because it means both the hit and power tools need to develop into plusses for Gomez to clear the overall offensive bar at his position. There’s enough thump here for that, though we’ll have to wait and see on the bat.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Virginia (TBR)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 55/55 40/50 40/40 50/50 50/50

McCarthy might be this decade’s Nick Johnson. He has limited physical ability but exceptional secondary skills, and a concerning injury history. In college, McCarthy missed several weeks of his junior year due to back surgery, and in 2018, he had back issues again, which cost him several months. His Fall League stint ended prematurely due to a fractured hand. Amid these injuries, McCarthy has reached base at .390 career rate and climbed to Triple-A Durham. He has sufficient physical tools to hit, just not for stardom, and we expect him to be a role playing 1B/OF who yields value on par with a low-end regular, assuming he can stay healthy.

15. Josh Lowe, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Pope HS (GA) (TBR)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/60 30/45 60/60 45/50 60/60

Lowe was on the draft radar as a prep junior in the Atlanta area when he ran his heater up to 95 mph in a high profile playoff game 13 months before he was draft eligible. Throughout the summer, scouts realized that he was a clear top five round talent on the mound, but a truly elite prospect at the plate. Lowe flashed plus speed, a plus arm, and plus raw power from the left side, projecting as the rare big center fielder with hit and power tools. The concern was that Lowe’s uphill, aggressive, power-oriented cut would limit his contact rate; after the Rays took him in the first round, his swing plane was flatter. In 2018, Lowe’s older brother and fellow Rays farmhand, Nate, shockingly went from fringe prospect to passing his more famous sibling in prospect status. Josh hasn’t put the loft back in his game swing, so he doesn’t look much different than the No. 1 overall pick from his draft class, Phillies center fielder Mickey Moniak. Both posted solid, contact-oriented offensive seasons in the Florida State League at age 20 while playing a solid center field. The difference is that Lowe has plus raw power he could tap back into, while Moniak may eventually grow into just average raw power. Lowe is ticketed for Double-A in 2019 and has a very laid back demeanor, which can turn off some scouts, though others see it as a sign he can handle the grind of the game and break through like his older brother did last year.

16. Taylor Walls, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Florida State (TBR)
Age 22.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 50/55 50/50

If you want to get a sense of the depth of the Rays middle infield, take a look at the end of the Nick Solak report (ninth on this list). It’s a testament to Walls’ breakout 2018 season that he’s even in that conversation, as many scouts thought the Rays had drastically overdrafted him in the third round out of Florida State in 2017. Walls played second base in college and had an all-fields, spray approach with little power but excellent pitch selection and plate discipline. He was getting pegged as a non-impact type, the sort of backup second baseman the likes of which teams don’t carry anymore; his best ability (pitch selection) wasn’t even a tool, and it didn’t matter much if he didn’t have any power. Most of that changed in 2018 as the Rays’ strategy of drafting players projected as second baseman and seeing if they can play shortstop worked out, with Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics grading Walls at +16 runs over 103 games, about as high of a number as you’ll see in the minor leagues. Scouts tended to agree that Walls was above average at the position, more due to angles and instincts than raw tools, and this development seemed to surprise even the Rays. Offensively, Walls started driving the ball more and doing some extra base damage when he was getting into good counts. The raw tools are still mostly average and he was 22 years old in Low-A, a function of the Rays’ middle infield depth blocking a deserved promotion, so there isn’t amazing upside here. That said, a player many scouts thought was an overdraft now looks like he has a solid shot to turn into a good utility guy or low-end regular just 18 months later.

17. Resly Linares, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/55 45/55 90-93 / 95

Even though Linares’ frame hasn’t filled out very much since he teenage days, his velocity has climbed. Loose and spindly, the low-slot lefty now sports a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s. Linares uses his curveball to attack both left and right-handed hitters, and his lack of changeup development to this point is the chief reason why he may project to the bullpen, where he may throw even harder and turn into something resembling Felipe Vasquez. We like lanky, athletic pitchers with feel for spin. Though there are clear things to work on, Linares is one of those. He should spend 2019 at Hi-A.

18. Anthony Banda, LHP
Drafted: 10th Round, 2012 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (MIL)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/50 40/45 50/55 40/45 92-95 / 97

Banda has been traded twice — Milwaukee sent him and Mitch Haniger to Arizona for Gerardo Parra in 2014, and then in 2018, Banda was part of the massive, three-team trade involving Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, among others — and finally looked like he’d get a long-term big league look in 2018. He was ten innings shy of exhausting rookie eligibility when he tore his UCL and had Tommy John in early June. It’s an awkwardly-timed surgery that might keep Banda out for all of 2019 as he recovers. He has No. 4 starter stuff when healthy, but we may not see it in the big leagues again until Banda is 26.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Roncalli HS (IN) (TBR)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 25/50 60/60 40/50 60/60

Schnell was an upside, cold-weather hitter to watch in the 2018 draft class but he exceeded expectations in the spring, rising into discussions for the middle of the first round. He landed near the top of a group of top-tier toolsy outfielders, flashing plus raw power, speed, and arm strength. He also went on a tear down the stretch in the Illinois state playoffs when high-level scouts were coming in for looks, hitting homer after homer. Some scouts were still uncertain about Schnell’s ultimate upside, arguing that his style of hitting indicates a swing flaw. To possess premium bat speed and face pitching in the 80s and still hit opposite field homers indicates Schnell was late on subpar stuff, and his deep hand load (which helps create the power) means this approach and his ultimate upside might not work in pro ball. While it’s too early to pass judgment on that opinion, Schnell struggled against good pitching in his pro debut and in instructional league, often exhibiting poor timing and ending up late on good fastballs. The Rays aren’t worried — expectations for cold-weather hitters are close to nil in their pro debut, not only because of the big jump in competition but also because they’re playing the longest season of their lives. Schnell may start 2019 in extended spring training so the org can keep a close eye on his habits and challenges in a controlled environment, but his upside is still among the best in his draft class.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from USF (TBR)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 173 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/55 45/50 40/45 92-95 / 100

McClanahan was barely seen the summer before his senior year in high school, pitching in the low-to-mid-80s in the lightly-scouted southwest corner of Florida, and committed to a smaller mid-major school. In his senior spring, things starting changing; he was getting into the low-90s, but it was still raw enough and abrupt enough of a change that it made sense for McClanahan to go to school, now at South Florida. He had another velo bump early in his college career, which eventually led to Tommy John surgery. Buzz grew in scouting circles as his post-surgery stuff was elite and after his first start of 2018, a heavily-scouted matchup with North Carolina, McClanahan looked like a top five overall pick. In that game, he hit 100 mph and flashed an above average slider and changeup along with enough feel to project as a starter. From then on, things started to unravel, until the Rays popped the local kid 31st overall. McClanahan had some minor issues — a finger injury and fluctuating velo as weather and workload dictated — but more worrisome to scouts were both his maturity and how he fared when his fastball was more of a 6 than an 8, and his command was a 3 or 4 instead of a 5. Most college pitchers can succeed with 55 or 60 stuff and below average command, but McClanahan struggled and showed it on the mound. The optimistic case is that a change of scenery, coaching, and workload (with less pressure) will help tease out that top five overall pick version of McClanahan, while the pessimistic case is that what we saw down the stretch is indicative of a future as a streaky power reliever with limited feel.

21. Tyler Frank, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Florida Atlantic (TBR)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 45/50 45/45

Frank was first seen by most scouts as a utility player on college Team USA the summer before he was draft eligible. He didn’t stand out much there, playing all over the field and making contact, but lacking impact tools. He shined much brighter in the spring for Florida Atlantic, with just shy of a 1.000 OPS and 13 homers while playing a passable shortstop. The setting in which you scout a player can do wonders and the Team USA look didn’t give Frank much of chance to show what he could do. Scouts who saw Frank in pro ball, after the Rays popped him in the second round, see a slightly lesser version of Taylor Walls, another under-tooled Rays middle infielder with lots of feel. Frank is seen as more of a second baseman going forward and his 45 raw power, 50 speed, and 50 defense still aren’t loud, but his ability to hit, take a good at-bat, and have advanced feel for the game give Frank the look of a potential low-end regular who could move quickly through the minors.

40+ FV Prospects

22. Jose De Leon, RHP
Drafted: 24th Round, 2013 from Southern (LA)
Age 26.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/45 50/50 60/60 50/55 90-92 / 94

Acquired from Los Angeles for Logan Forsythe, De Leon has basically lost the last two years to poor arm health. He had intermittent injury issues throughout 2017 — flexor mass discomfort, a lat strain, elbow tendinitis — and needed Tommy John during 2018 Spring Training. He’s been throwing bullpens and is on track to return sometime in the middle of 2019. It’s unclear if the drop in velocity De Leon exhibited betwixt his DL stints was due to injury or if that’s just how hard he throws now. At his prospect peak in Los Angeles, when De Leon struck out no fewer than 32% of opposing hitters over a three-season stretch, he was sitting 92-94, and touching 96. Though there’s less stigma surrounding drop-and-drive deliveries now, there was concern about De Leon’s fastball being liftable even at that velocity due to it’s plane. At his more recent 89-91, it’s more worrisome. But if the velocity comes back, De Leon will have two plus pitches in his fastball and a goofy changeup, which has weird, horizontal action. He throws a ton of strikes and has two viable breaking balls. He could be a No. 3 or 4 starter if everything comes back, but is more like a No. 5 if it doesn’t.

23. Drew Strotman, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from St. Mary’s (TBR)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 50/55 45/50 45/50 92-95 / 97

In many ways, the first half of Strotman’s 2018 season was just like that of Phillies righty Spencer Howard, who’s now in the overall top 100 picture because his stuff exploded late in the year. Like Howard, Strotman mostly pitched out of the bullpen at a second tier California college and only began starting full time in 2018. He was probably slightly underscouted as an amateur, and definitely underdeveloped. For a month and a half of 2018, he showed mid-rotation stuff, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John. He may not be back in affiliated ball until late next summer, but he was quite young for a college draftee (another trait he shares with Howard) and has more developmental wiggle room for a setback like this than most of his peers would. He’s a 2019 Arizona Fall League breakout candidate.

24. Colin Poche, LHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2016 from Dallas Baptist (ARI)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
65/70 50/55 50/55 90-93 / 94

It’s pretty common for pitchers to have a delivery that accentuates their stuff, and often, it’s easy to detect with the naked eye. This is not so for Poche, whose mechanical sleight of hand is not visually obvious, but whose success with what appears to be a mediocre fastball is unmatched in the minors. Poche has somehow managed to generate elite swinging strike rates with fringe fastball velocity and a spin rate that’s shy of average. Scouts and colleagues have asserted that Poche hides the ball well, only showing it to hitters when it suddenly appears out from behind his head. Poche also generates elite down-mound extension and fastball rise. His pitches not only make hitters look uncomfortable, they sometimes sneak up on the catcher, too. Essentially, Poche has an average fastball with three separate characteristics that make it play up. Big league hitters may be less vulnerable to one or more of these characteristics, but if not, Poche’s fastball is going to play like a 7 or 8, and he could be a top 50 big league reliever.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Niskayuna HS (NY) (TBR)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 30/50 60/60 40/50 55/55

The Dave Stewart Dbacks regime purportedly considered Whitley for the 2015 draft’s first pick, which seemed ill-advised given how blatantly risky both Whitley and his draft demographic were and are (raw, cold-weather prep outfielders can be Mike Trout or Anthony Hewitt). He fell to pick 13. As a pro, Whitley has become a power and patience center field prospect. He owns a 12% career walk rate and in 2017 started tapping into power thanks to a swing change. He was a candidate for a 2018 national breakout, but got hurt during spring training and missed the entire season while recovering from labrum surgery. The injury ate an important year of Whitley’s development, and also created risk that he has to move to left field if his arm strength doesn’t return (he began throwing a baseball again in late August). Just as he was starting to answer a lot of the pre-draft questions, a bunch of new ones were introduced, but we’re still enamored with Whitley’s physical gifts and upside. He’ll likely begin 2019 at Hi-A.

26. Tanner Dodson, RHP/CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Cal (TBR)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 20/40 55/55 45/50 60/60
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 55/60 45/50 40/45 92-96 / 98

Dodson’s father, Bo, hit .288/.397/.436 as a 10-year minor league first baseman, and may have gotten a shot had he played during an era that better appreciated his on base skills, or had he not been blocked by John Jaha in ’95 and Mo Vaughn in ’96. Tanner is a totally different baseball entity, standing apart not just from his father but from the rest of the minors, and access to such a unique skillset is partly what motivated the curious Rays to draft him in the second round in 2018. Dodson was Cal’s two-hole hitter, starting center fielder, and closer. If forced to chose a traditional developmental path, teams would have overwhelmingly preferred Dodson on the mound, where his stuff is commensurate with a typical middle reliever. But he is also a plus-running switch-hitter, with some natural lift as a right-handed hitter and good barrel control as a lefty. The Rays want to take advantage of all of Dodson’s skills and asked that he be announced on draft day as a two-way player. At Cal, Dodson would often warm up his arm in center field, sometimes very little, before coming in to pitch in save situations. In pro ball, he pitched once every seven days, would have a bullpen day at the midpoint between outings, and either DH or play CF on the other days. Developing as a two-way player is actually less labor intensive than existing as one in college, where Dodson’s schedule was more variable. Neither of Dodson’s individual roles projects to be ones of impact. On the mound, he looks like a middle reliever; with the bat, he looks like a fourth outfielder. But if he performs like a standard 40-inning reliever, like Jacob Barnes, and quintessential fourth outfielder, like Travis Jankowski, he’ll generate a combined 1.5 to 2 WAR annually.

40 FV Prospects

27. Jelfry Marte, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 17.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 40/50 20/40 60/60 50/60 60/60

Marte originally signed for $3 million with the Twins as one of the top position players in the 2017 July 2nd class. That deal was voided over concerns about Marte’s vision, but those concerns weren’t as strong as they were with the last prospect who went through a situation like this, Dominican power-hitting right fielder Wagner Mateo. Mateo signed for $3.1 million with St. Louis in 2009, and after his deal was voided, signed with Arizona for $512,000 almost a year later. Mateo played parts of four seasons before being released by Arizona, only playing 10 games in a full-season league with a career .660 OPS. Marte ended up signing with Tampa Bay less than a month after his deal was voided, this time for $820,000; Tampa Bay sees his vision as a correctable issue that’s already shown improvement, adding strength to his eyes like you would to a projectable frame. Marte has already surpassed Mateo’s performance in some ways, posting a comparable OPS in the GCL as a 17-year-old who is underdeveloped physically, switch hits, and plays a plus shortstop. One scout described teammate and fellow 17-year-old Wander Franco’s physicality as beyond his years, while Marte was so slightly built that he looked like a 14-year-old in 2018, despite being arguably the best defender in a deep system of shortstops. Marte flashes plus speed, range, hands, and arm strength and while he needs to tighten up his strike zone, he has contact skills even though the strength deficit means pitchers can throw strikes without fear of an extra base hit. Marte’s key will be continuing to add visual and physical strength to hit game — there’s clear everyday potential here if that happens.

28. Alejandro Pie, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 16.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 45/60 20/50 60/55 40/50 55/60

Pie, who ranked 17th on our 2018 July 2 Board, now looks like top 100 prospect Oneil Cruz did at the same age: endless limbs, uncommon athleticism and body control for his size, uncapped power projection, and much more intrigue than certainty about any aspect of the profile. It’s not even clear whether Pie is going to stay on the infield. He runs well enough that center field is a possibility if his actions don’t improve, and he has the arm to play short or third if they do. Even if Pie tumbles down the defensive spectrum, it likely means he’s grown into substantial raw power, enough to profile at any position. Our current tool grade projections indicate what we think things will look like if Pie’s frame develops in a way that allows him to stay at shortstop, but we think it’s going to take a long time before his skillset truly comes into focus.

29. Tobias Myers, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Winter Haven HS (FL) (BAL)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 193 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 45/55 40/50 91-93 / 95

Myers was a bit under-the-radar at a central Florida high school, showing all the markers of a classically projectable and athletic pitcher. But the stuff didn’t edge past average as an amateur, so he lasted until the sixth round, where Baltimore drafted him in 2016. Tampa Bay acquired the local in the Tim Beckham 2017 trade during a breakout season in the New York-Penn League, and we anticipated a full-season breakout in 2018, but things didn’t go as planned. He didn’t get hurt or have a dip in stuff, so the No. 3 or 4 starter upside is still there. Scouts indicated that Myers’ struggles were more in the way he pitched: in the top and middle of the zone more than before, and now against better hitters.

30. Ian Gibaut, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Tulane (TBR)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 250 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 70/70 40/45 95-97 / 98

There isn’t huge upside with Gibaut: he’s a 40 FV (middle reliever) for us now and likely won’t be more than a 45 FV (setup man) in the big leagues if things go well. That said, he has huge stuff and while it mostly fits in a one-inning stint, he’s big league ready and dominated Triple-A in a full season in 2018. Given the Rays’ glut of MLB-ready talent and propensity to lean on multi-inning types on their staff, there’s a significant barrier to a long stint on the 25-man roster for a pitcher of this type. Gibaut will get there on the strength of his stuff: sitting 95-97 mph, mixing in a 70-grade changeup and slider that flashes plus. This is a little more raw stuff than Fernando Rodney at his peak, but Gibaut is 25 and hasn’t had his command proven at the big league level yet, so there’s still some uncertainty here.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2011 from Colegio Vocacional Para Adultos HS (PR) (ARI)
Age 26.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 45/45 20/40 40/40 45/50 60/60

It’s possible Perez would have been Arizona’s best everyday option at catcher toward the end of last year, but a desperate need for pitching depth facilitated his trade to Tampa Bay for Matt Andriese. Perez is an athletic catcher with a plus arm, average receiving skills, and some feel to hit. After struggling to perform with the bat during the first several years of his career, Perez has two straight season of league-average offensive performance at Double and Triple-A. He has a pull-and-lift style of hitting, but not enough raw power to optimize that kind of approach. He’s a safe bet to be a quality backup and has a non-zero chance to hit a little more than we expect and be a low-end regular.

32. Joe Peguero, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/80 50/55 40/45 35/45 96-100 / 102

Peguero is a late-blooming power arm who took a step forward stuff-wise in 2018, but didn’t take a step forward statistically until he was put in the bullpen for the last month of the season in the short-season Appalachian League. After the full-time shift, Peguero threw 16.2 IP with 19 K and 3 BB. It’s not as simple as you may think, with most of those relief outings going multiple innings, so it seemed to be more of a mental adjustment than being better in short stints, with some sources telling us his confidence increased in that role. Peguero will turn 22 in May and has a career 6.28 ERA with no experience outside of short-season leagues, so there are some clear concerns. On the other hand, he sits 96-100 and has hit 102 mph, mixing in a curveball that’s plus at times, though he struggles to command it. His delivery is athletic and easy, and he’ll throw an occasional low-90s changeup that is usable. Peguero needed more innings at a low level of competition to build into 2019 and went to the Australian Baseball League this winter, throwing 13.1 IP with 19 K and 2 BB. At this point, Peguero is similar to a position player who converted to pitching in college and is now draft eligible with huge stuff but little polish; that guy goes roughly in the third round, which is right about where we have him pegged here, but he needs to move quickly and perform now that he’s found his role.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Lexington HS (SC) (TBR)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 40/45 20/20 50/50 70/70

Ciuffo was a first round pick out of a South Carolina high school in 2013 based on the strength of his arm and power, with his hitting and catching skills closer to average. That’s still largely the report 5.5 years later, with the gap being that Ciuffo isn’t quite offensively talented enough (a combination of plate coverage, loft and bat control) to hit for both leagues’ average contact and power. The lower offensive upside makes him more of a potential backup. He got a cup of coffee in 2018 and is currently the third catcher for the Rays, so he’ll almost certainly get more big league time when there’s a catcher injury or prolonged slump next season.

34. Matt Krook, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Oregon (SFG)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
50/50 40/50 45/50 88-90 / 93

Krook has one of the best 88 mph fastballs in the minors due to its dramatic sinking movement, which makes it capable of missing bats despite below-average velocity. His arm angle and the shape of his fastball create a pitch that looks very similar to Zach Britton’s sinker, but with much less zip. Though the Giants, who traded him to Tampa as part of the Evan Longoria deal, tried to develop Krook as a starter early in his career, a combination of injury concern (bad delivery, flunked physical coming out of high school, TJ in college) and lack of control made it likely that he’d eventually move to the bullpen, and that transition — or at least, one to a role where Krook throws a number of innings typical of a reliever; he may be a candidate to ‘open’, but we don’t know for sure — is underway. Krook used to live in the low-to-mid-90s and his drop in velocity is perhaps a red flag, considering his medical history. But it plays even at this velocity, and so do his two breaking balls, which benefit from the deceptive ugliness of his delivery.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 18.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 145 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 35/45 20/40 65/65 50/55 50/50

We’re undeterred by Figuereo’s childlike measurables because, for a 5-foot-8 guy, he actually has a good frame and lots of present baseball skill that should start yielding on-field results as he gets stronger. He’s a plus athlete and runner with a high baseball IQ, switch-hits, and is going to stay on the infield. Unlike his prototypically-sized peers, whose attributes are more obvious in showcase environments, it takes longer to get a feel for and appreciate skillsets like Figuereo’s. We think it’s why skills-over-tools infielders like this tend to sneak up on us, and we’re trying to suss out this profile earlier than we have in the past. If Figeureo’s strength never materializes, he’s probably just a utility guy, at best. If it does, he could be a well-rounded every day player.

36. Ryan Boldt, LF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Nebraska (TBR)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 50/50 30/45 55/50 50/55 50/50

A big part of why Boldt’s college performance never quite matched the power/speed hype of his high school tools was that his swing was not geared for any sort of lift. He clearly had substantial raw power, but never slugged more than his freshman year mark of .437 at Nebraska. Since college, Boldt’s swing has evolved in a way that better incorporates his lower half. It has more scoop, more ability to catch pitches in, and he’s better able to lift balls that are down. Supporting evidence can be found by observing Boldt’s batted ball profile, as his groundball rate is now close to league average instead of well above it. Though he thickened quickly in college, Boldt is still an above-average runner once he gets underway. His slow first few steps prevent him from everyday viability in center field, and Boldt saw more time in the outfield corners last year than at any other time during his career. He projects as a platoon corner outfielder, especially if last year’s swing changes were just the start of a continuous, upward trend in power output.

37. Curtis Taylor, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from British Columbia (ARI)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 93-97 / 98

This is another reliever who, based on usage patterns, it appears is being developed for some kind of multi-inning role, perhaps to follow the opener. Taylor was acquired from Arizona for Brad Boxberger, and after the Dbacks had taken his early-career development slowly (Taylor was a raw college arm from Canada), the Rays hit the gas pedal and quickly moved him to Montgomery in May. He thrived there, typically throwing 35 to 50 pitches once every three to five days. Most of those pitches were mid-90s fastballs that played up due to big extension, while some were above-average sliders. On paper, this reads like a standard two-pitch middle reliever, and for that reason, it’s fair to question whether Taylor’s usage might be caricaturing his velocity, and if his fastball would be this hard on back-to-back days, or if his usage were more variable. But if this is just how Tampa Bay is going to use him, then this is the stuff. Taylor threw 78 innings in 38 games. His four starts were some of his shortest outings. It’s possible Taylor’s usage has been for developmental reasons, but we tend to think he’s being prepared for a fairly distinctive role.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Wilson HS (CA) (TBR)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 35/50 35/30 40/50 55/55

Betts was one of the most heavily-scouting prep prospects in recent memory, maturing early as a catcher with a plus arm and plus raw power from a strong prep program in Long Beach, CA that has produced five first round picks, including Aaron Hicks. Betts looked to be a mid-first round pick in 2015 when a medical showing that he would need Tommy John surgery caused him to slip to the second round. Betts missed the summer after signing for surgery, played 39 games in 2016, then played just seven games in 2017 due to injury. 2018 was his breakout year on many fronts: he stayed healthy the whole season, caught 63 of the 72 games in which he played, and made his first appearance at a full-season level. Betts turns 22 during spring training and still has plenty to prove — some scouts doubted his ability to catch as an amateur and some still do as a pro — but the arrow is pointing up in that regard as well.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/55 25/45 60/60 40/50 60/60

Ramirez is still a under-the-radar as a prospect: he wasn’t a top pedigree amateur, signing for $300,000 when the Rays were in the international penalty box, and has only played in the US as a very limited participant in instructional league. He made quite an impression on the scouts who have been able to see him for his loud tools: plus batspeed, running speed, and arm strength, to go along with a chance to stick at shortstop. Ramirez has put on about 20 pounds since signing, with one scout comparing his frame and toolset to Jose Ramirez’s, though the skills and feel for the game are obviously not even close to that. He also has a good plate approach but can play out of control at times, especially at shortstop. Ramirez likely will head to GCL in 2019 at age 19.

40. Kean Wong, 2B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2013 from Waiakea HS (HI) (TBR)
Age 23.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/50 45/45 35/40 50/50 50/50 50/50

In his second straight year at Triple-A, Wong hit .282/.345/.406 (the highest SLG% of his career, which coincided with a modest-but-relevant 5 percentage point drop in groundball rate) and started seeing action in left field in addition to his usual time at second and third. We don’t think he plays every day, but lefty bats with that kind of positional flexibility are good role players, and Wong is ready for the big leagues right now. The infield situation in Tampa Bay is very crowded and Wong may need a change of scenery to get an opportunity.

41. Tristan Gray, 2B
Drafted: 13th Round, 2017 from Rice (PIT)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 50/50 40/50 50/50 45/50 50/50

Like Ford Proctor a few spots later on this list, Gray was a three-year starter at Rice as a middle infielder and likely projects as a utility guy at the next level. To contrast with Proctor, Gray was a lankier-framed prospect who has slowly filled out and added noticeable loft to his swing this year, so there’s more impact with the bat than there is with Proctor. He’s started playing some shortstop to develop that utility profile, but is a little lesser with the glove than Proctor, fitting better at second base long-term with emergency shortstop ability.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 145 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 45/45 30/40 50/50 45/50 55/55

Then with Minnesota, Palacios got red hot during the early part of 2017 and looked like he might be turning a corner. Teams saw him as a multi-positional infielder with good feel for contact, but were forced to revisit that evaluation when Palacios had a long stretch during which he was also hitting for power. He was promoted, his performance regressed, and he was traded to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi just before the 2018 season. It seems as though the upper levels of the minors have begun to take advantage of Palacios’ epicurean pitch selection, as his numbers continued to decline in 2018. His tools still indicate a utility and pinch-hitting role is possible, but Palacios hasn’t hit for a year and a half now, so we’re less confident he gets there.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (TBR)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 211 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 40/45 35/40 92-95 / 97

Tampa Bay’s usage of Romero suggests they may be developing him with a multi-inning role in mind, as 17 of his 26 appearances in 2018 were of the multi-inning variety. Visually though, he looks like a two-pitch, single-inning reliever, though potentially a very good one, as he’ll flash the occasional 70-grade curveball. A well below average athlete and strike-thrower, there’s skepticism that Romero will improve his command deficiencies, but his stuff is very good. He struggled with a late-season promotion to Hi-A and should return there in 2019. He could move quickly if the command suddenly clicks, but we don’t think it will.

44. Miguel Lara, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 45/50 50/60 30/40 92-96 / 99

Lara’s delivery evokes a Tesla Coil; mid-90s lightning shoots out of this seemingly unstable thing, a delivery unlike any other in baseball. So funky and violent is Lara’s cross-body, side-arm style of throwing that it’s rare for any two consecutive deliveries of his to look even kind of the same. He only projects in relief, and a lack of control may eventually be his complete undoing as a prospect, but Lara also has a premium three-pitch mix on par with modern high-leverage relievers. His arm slot alone makes him a tough at-bat for righties and his changeup stifles lefties. He may have three functionally plus pitches at peak and be a dynamic bullpen stopper, or he may have strike-throwing issues that make him unrosterable. This is one of the more volatile relief prospects in the minors.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Westview HS (CA) (TBR)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 45/50 45/55 89-93 / 94

As the 2017 draft approached, it seemed like there was a strong possibility that Mercado would matriculate to Stanford. It was unclear if circumstances would align in such a way that he’d find a home; it would take a team that had a strong evaluation of Mercado (some teams were more apt to project on his fastball than others), a pick near where his talent level made sense, and the pool space to coax him away from college. It turned out the Rays were that team, and Mercado signed for $2.1 million, about $400,000 over slot, as a second rounder. After a year and a half of pro ball, Mercado’s stuff is basically the same. His fastball resides in the low-90s and he’ll show you an above-average curveball and changeup once in a while. He has better command than is usual for a pitcher of this age and size, so he comfortably projects as a starter, likely of the No. 4 or 5 variety.

46. Sandy Gaston, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (TBR)
Age 17.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/70 45/55 45/50 30/45 93-96 / 100

Gaston was a 15-year-old Cuban defector and right around his 16th birthday, he hit 100 mph on some guns in short stints working out for teams. That nearly unprecedented velocity for his age obviously garnered a lot of attention in the scouting community, though he was, as you’d guess, still very raw and often had 20 control when he was scraping triple digits. Gaston also isn’t classically projectable in that his velocity is already at the top of the scale and he has a maturely-built frame at 6-foot, but he did some arm slot and arm action tinkering over the last few years that has affected his control and command. So while Gaston may get stronger as he physically matures, what’s more important is the projection of his feel for pitching, which appears to be more natural at a three-quarters arm slot (more mid-90s velocity), where his arm action is also more naturally online than the higher slot where he was throwing harder and wilder. Gaston’s best pitching performance was as the main event on the mound at the Victor Victor Mesa workout in Marlins Park where the better version of his arm slot, arm action, and control was first seen by a large scouting audience. His best off-speed pitch is a solid average curveball and he also has a changeup that flashes average, so the full stuff package, beyond just the fastball, is also top of the scale elite, but Gaston is also hard to project given the varied looks he’s given scouts over the last year.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Paxton HS (FL) (TBR)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

After a breakout 2017, Franklin took his fastball/curveball combination to Bowling Green and made 15 mostly unremarkable starts there before tearing his UCL. He had Tommy John near the end of July. We likely won’t see Franklin again until late next year, and he might end up throwing the bulk of his innings during instructs or Fall League. The time off means missed reps with a third pitch, and a greater likelihood that Franklin ends up in relief, which was already a possibility given his delivery and limited control.

48. Ford Proctor, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Rice (TBR)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Proctor started nearly every game in his three year career at Rice at shortstop (alongside Tristan Gray, a fellow Ray after a trade from Pittsburgh) and the steady performer peaked in his draft year. He’s a decent shortstop with a chance to stick, but like many players in the Rays system, he’s on the spectrum between lock-down shortstop and second base-only. Proctor is near the bottom of the middle infielders on the list for now because the tools aren’t impact (below average raw power, average speed, solid average arm), and the questions around his defense are more on range and explosiveness than hands or instincts. He’s a flatter-planned, all-fields approach type who projects as a utilityman if the bat plays as expected, but one scout pointed out that this was almost exactly the report on Taylor Walls a year ago, and foresees a similar rise for Proctor in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Gregorio came over to Tampa Bay from Seattle as the player to be named later in the deal that saw the Mariners acquire Mike Marjama (who is now retired) and Ryan Garton (who has made 13 MLB appearance in a year-plus with Seattle, mostly pitching in Triple-A) in exchange for Luis Rengifo and Anthony Misiewicz. The trade looked bad in hindsight with Rengifo’s (now with the Angels) emergence early in 2018 but looks even worse now with Gregorio’s continued improvement for the Rays. Gregorio has put on considerable strength since the trade but is still an average runner and is showing plus raw power. The power is starting to show up in games and exit velocities, and the strength has helped him add bat control, which assists with both contact and game power. Gregorio may fit best at third base longterm, but he has above average range for the position and a plus arm, so Tampa Bay will give him a chance to develop as a shortstop, as is their tendency. He looks ticketed for Low-A for his age 20/21 season and is a prime example of what can happen when a skinny but projectable athlete grows into some man strength.

50. Taj Bradley, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Redan HS (GA) (TBR)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Bradley popped a bit in the spring at his Atlanta-area high school when his velo took a step forward and he was sitting in the low-90s. That’s not super surprising since Bradley has a clean arm action and some projection to his frame, but the change in perception was mostly because he was the youngest prep prospect in the country — he’ll be 17 even during spring training, younger than many top prospects for the 2019 MLB Draft. Bradley still needs to clean up his delivery some, throw his changeup more often, and fine-tune his command, but his fastball/curveball combo both project for above average, so there’s clearly something to work with here.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Peguero was the MVP of the 2018 DSL champion Rays. He’s already 19 (on the older end of the spectrum for prospects in the DSL) but is otherwise a well-rounded prospect. He has a good build and is a good athlete, with good stuff (91-94, up to 96 with a 2400 spin rate on the breaking ball), and on-mound poise. We have him evaluated the way we would an older high school arm who could go anywhere from the third to fifth round in the draft.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Tulane (TBR)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Witherspoon benefitted from a big draft spring for Tulane, jumping from two campaigns with a .700-something OPS to a 1.023 OPS and 33 extra base hits in 58 games. The upside here still isn’t huge, with all five tools right around average, but Witherspoon has the feel to hit and defend such that he could be a good platoon outfielder who can play all three spots and get a bulk of the at-bats. The realistic outcome if the bat plays and the 22-year-old moves relatively quickly through the minors is a 450 plate appearance outfielder with fringy offense who plays above average corner defense.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (TBR)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 207 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

It’s not abundantly clear whether or not Rodriguez will be able to catch as, at age 18, he’s already a pretty big, long-levered kid who was initially unsure if he even wanted to try it. But Rodriguez can really hit. He has excellent timing, bat control, and feel for all-fields contact, and he can open up and get his barrel on pitches inside. He might end up at first base or in an outfield corner, but he might hit enough to profile at those spots and if he can catch, his ceiling is sizable.

54. Victor Munoz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Munoz signed for $442,000 in the 2017 July 2nd period as a second-tier projection arm in the class and he’s already showing some progress just over a year after signing. He’s 6-foot-4, 170 pounds, with an easy delivery and was already touching 95 mph this summer in the DSL, showing starter traits and spinning a solid average curveball at times. Munoz is roughly the same age and competition level as Taj Bradley, who is a few spots ahead of Munoz on the list. Munoz may have a hair more upside due to projection but Bradley has been seen a lot by scouts over the past year while Munoz was very lightly seen, so we’re in a bit of wait-and-see mode here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Young Positional Prospects
Tony Pena, LF
Daiwer Castellanos, CF
Stir Candelario, RF
Aldenis Sanchez, CF
Carlos Vargas, 1B
Kaleo Johnson, 3B

Pena is raw for a 21-year-old but he crushed the Appy League and has plus power, and notably high exit velos. Castellanos, 18, is a spark plug outfielder with plus speed and good feel for the strike zone. There’s risk he’s a fourth outfielder or a Gregor Blanco type of everyday player, but this kind of profile tends to overperform. Candelario, also 18, has a traditional right field profile, including a 70 arm and big pull power. Sanchez is 20 and spent 2018 in the GCL. He’s a rangy, athletic 6-foot-2 and runs well. He could be an above-average defensive center fielder at peak. Vargas, 19, was acquired in the first Mariners Mallex Smith trade. He was a DSL shortstop at the time but he’s filled out to the point where he’ll probably need to move to first base. He has 70 raw power projection but needs to hit a ton to profile. Johnson was a 32nd round pick this summer from Montana State Billings and impressed some pro scouts after signing as a lottery ticket type with plus raw power that showed up in games (and in exit velos) with some chance to stick at third base.

Young Latin American Pitchers
Wikelman Ramirez, RHP
Angel Felipe, RHP
Franklin Dacosta, LHP
Carlos Garcia, RHP
Rodolfo Sanchez, RHP

Ramirez, 18, only threw eight GCL innings due to injury, and he recently had TJ. When healthy, he looked like a potential No. 4 or 5 starter thanks to a low-90s sinker, plus changeup, and average breaking ball. Felipe has been a slow mover and spent the first four years of his career in rookie ball. That’s typically not a great sign, but he throws really hard (up to 100 mph) and is 6-foot-6, so maybe the rest comes later. He’s 21. Dacosta, 18, has a vertical arm slot that should enable him to run four seamers (up to 94) past hitters at the letters, and his curveball has vertical action that will compliment that pitching approach. Garcia was also a little old for the DSL but he throws a heavy, mid-90s fastball and is an interesting relief prospect. Sanchez, 19, is an athletic 5-foot-10 and has a fast arm. He’s been up to 95 and can spin a breaking ball. Most of these guys profile as relievers, save for Ramirez who would have been on the main section of the list if not for his surgery.

Utility Types
Gionti Turner, 2B
Zach Rutherford, SS
Daury Del Rosario, SS

Turner was acquired from Cleveland this offseason for Chih-Wei Hu; a full report is available here. Rutherford is totally competent at just about everything but lacks a carrying tool. He performed at Low-A last year but college bats should do that. Del Rosario signed for $600,000 in July. He’s a switch-hitter who probably fits better at second or third in the long run, and he has fringy bat speed but a track record of hitting.

Catcher Depth
Roberto Alvarez, C
David Rodriguez, C
Rene Pinto, C

Alvarez, 19, had a growth spurt and exceeded expectations in the Appy league as a 19-year-old. He has 50 raw power, a 45 arm, and is a good receiver. He was the last cut from the main section of the list and we think he gets there next spring. Rodriguez is a glove-first catcher with some pop who could be a second or third catcher. Pinto is a bat-first catcher whose glove has started to come along. If viable back there, he could be a backup.

Pitchability Guys
Riley O’Brien, RHP
Rollie Lacy, RHP
Jose Mujica, RHP
Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP
Blake Bivens, RHP
Luis Moncada, LHP
Alan Strong, RHP
Josh Fleming, LHP
Joe Ryan, RHP
Tommy Romero, RHP

O’Brien, whose grandfather played for the Pirates in the ’50s, might break out next year. He’s a well-made 6-foot-4 righty who was a 2017 eighth rounder out of Idaho. He pitched well out of Bowling Green’s bullpen early in 2018, was moved to the rotation, kept pitching well, and was promoted to Charlotte. He could end up with a plus fastball and curveball combo. Lacy as been traded twice in the last year. He’s a strike-throwing changeup specialist who projects as a sport starter. Bivens, Moncada, and Strong all have low-90s fastballs with average secondary stuff and command. Rosenblum-Larson sits 90-94 mph with a mid-80s slider from a low slot that reminds some of Steven Cishek, and he went to Harvard, so you’ll never stop hearing about that if Rosenblum-Larson makes the big leagues. Fleming pounds the zone with three solid average pitches from the left side. Romero has some projection left and a deceptive fastball that could help him become one of the 2nd-to-6th inning sort of pitchers that Tampa Bay used this season. Ryan has an ultra-loose arm, which is the reason scouts are projecting more stuff to come from his 88-93 mph heater and average secondary stuff.

Potential Relievers
Michael Plassmeyer, LHP
Travis Ott, LHP
Jhonleider Salinas, RHP
Brandon Koch, RHP
Nick Sprengel, LHP

Plassmeyer was Seattle’s 2018 fourth rounder, who they traded to Tampa in the Mike Zunino deal. He’s an athletic, low-slot lefty with average stuff that plays because he has great command. Ott, too, has average stuff that plays up because he has low-slot funk. He has lefty specialist projection. Salinas was acquired from Cleveland for Brandon Guyer. He’s a monster 6-foot-7 with premium arm strength and middling secondary stuff. Koch is yet another Rays arm who had surgery in June. He’s a quintessential two-pitch power relief prospect with a mid-90s fastball and slider. Sprengel looked like a second rounder (low-90s sinker, above average slider, starter look) as an underclassman at San Diego but developed concerning strike-throwing issues as a junior. He’ll be interesting if his feel for pitching can bounce back.

System Overview

The Rays have made some fascinating decisions in the past few years in an effort to make their small market payroll work without a new stadium on the horizon. They seem to be shooting for an 85-win baseline with a sustainable payroll every year (an accomplishment on its own), and then will either look to use pieces from the major league roster to stock the system if things play out worse than hoped (the Chris Archer deal), or consolidate pieces and make a run if the stars align. This mean trading a lot of assets (first or second-year arbitration eligible starters) most clubs would want to hold on to for multiple upper level minor leaguers of comparable upside (think the Steven Souza deal). Currently, the club appears to be considering some consolidation moves given its glut of MLB-ready talent, particularly in the middle infield, though the tight competitive window in the AL East may be more attractive when the Red Sox lose a few core players over the next few seasons (or the Yankees keep humming and the Blue Jays surge, and it never gets particularly attractive).

On the acquisition front, the Rays’ fortunes in the draft have improved since a particularly poor run a few years back, which many thought was more bad luck than a terrible process, while the international department is in the top tier in baseball. This has been helped by the emergence of Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan, Jesus Sanchez, and Ronaldo Hernandez in the last 12 months, but there are prospects all over the list, largely without big bonuses, who follow a similar distribution as those on the lists of other top international programs.

Similar to the Yankees, the Rays are in the midst of a 40-man crunch that won’t let up anytime soon, with some trades, such as the Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams for Tommy Pham deal, influenced by trying to clear 40-man spots with young players that aren’t 25-man quality yet. It’s unusual to see a small market team give up first-year arb players for prospects, while also giving up prospects near the majors in return for big leaguers, but such is the situation the Rays have found themselves in.


Effectively Wild Episode 1325: Book Learning

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Willians Astudillo and the Sonny Gray trade, then (19:11) bring on Padres podcaster David Marver to talk about the Padres supposedly opening their books, what information the team actually revealed, the ways in which that information may be incomplete or misleading, why Padres ownership hasn’t spent more, San Diego as an underrated downtrodden sports town, the Padres’ top-ranked farm system and future, year one of the Eric Hosmer experience, and more.

Audio intro: The Rock*A*Teens, "Count in Odd Numbers"
Audio interstitial: Joel Plaskett, "Forever in Debt"
Audio outro: Juliana Hatfield, "Paid to Lie"

Link to article about Astudillo getting drafted
Link to Jeff’s post about Gray
Link to article about Padres’ finances
Link to article on 20th anniversary of “The Pitch”
Link to Gwyntelligence Podcast
Link to Great American Dream Podcast
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Sonny Gray Is Now the Reds’ Problem to Solve

In 2016, the Reds’ rotation ranked last in the majors in WAR. The next year, they improved, sliding all the way up to 29th. This past season, they wound up in 26th, and over the combined three-year sample, we find the Reds in 30th place out of 30 teams, nearly a full six WAR behind the next-worst White Sox. It hasn’t been for lack of talent; it’s been for lack of execution, for lack of development. The Reds, at some point, decided they weren’t going to take it anymore. Earlier in this offseason, the rotation added Alex Wood. Earlier in this offseason, the rotation added Tanner Roark. And now we have a holiday three-team exchange, bringing just another starting arm to Cincinnati.

Reds

Yankees

  • GET:
  • LOSE:
    • Sonny Gray
    • Reiver Sanmartin

Mariners

  • GET:
    • Shed Long
  • LOSE:
    • Josh Stowers

Wood is going into his contract season. The same is true of Roark. The same is also true of outfield acquisition Yasiel Puig. The same is true of Matt Kemp. The same was true of Gray, but as a part of this trade, Gray and the Reds have agreed on a three-year extension, beginning in 2020 and worth $30.5 million. There’s a $12-million club option for 2023, and there are various salary escalators involved. The Reds are paying a high price here, but at least they’re doing it for a long-term player. And from the Yankees’ perspective, they knew it was going to get here eventually. Playing in New York, Gray just couldn’t succeed. Now it’s the Reds’ turn to work with the same puzzle pieces.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/21/19

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Welcome to HolidayChat

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We have a light schedule on the site today, but since I messed up my chat last week, I didn’t want to miss two!

12:03
Soxtober2048: What would a reasonable return be for Joc Pederson from the White Sox?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s see a useful but limited player with two (I think) arb years

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe one interesting guy somewhere at the back of hte top 150?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe someone like Basabe?

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