Cole Young is one of the shining stars of Seattle’s system. Slotted in at no. 2 with a 50 FV grade when our Mariners Top Prospects list was published in mid-summer, the 21-year-old middle infielder is coming off a second full professional season during which he slashed .271/.369/.390 with nine home runs and a 119 wRC+ over 552 plate appearances with Double-A Arkansas. Displaying above-average contact skills — a selling point when he was drafted 21st overall out of Wexford, Pennsylvania’s North Allegheny High School in 2022 — he had a 15.8% strikeout rate to go with a 12.1% walk rate.
The extent to which he will hit for power as he continues to mature was on my mind when I spoke to him prior to an Arizona Fall League game this past weekend (Young has since been removed from the Peoria Javelinas roster; per a source, he was dealing with wrist discomfort, an issue dating back to the regular season). Back in July, Eric Longenhagen wrote that Young has “added considerable bulk to his frame” since entering pro ball, and noted that “changes he’s made to his swing have resulted in him trading some contact for power.”
Asked about our lead prospect analyst’s observations, Young said that he now weighs 200 pounds, up from 190 a year ago, and is “a lot stronger after going to lifting camp” over the offseason. He sees his ideal weight in the 195-200 pound range, allowing him to “still be athletic, but also be able to hit the ball hard.” Read the rest of this entry »
“One of the best hitters in baseball – last three years, batting titles with three different teams.” That’s the first thing viewers heard about Luis Arraez this postseason, a quote from the bottom of the first inning of the Padres-Braves Wild Card series. Arraez singled and promptly scored on a Fernando Tatis Jr. home run. It was just how you’d draw it up, and San Diego won a 4-0 laugher. That’s the promise of Arraez – a near-automatic baserunner completely immune to strikeout pitching.
“He’s a tough dude to face… He could set the tone just like Ohtani could set the tone for their respective clubs.” That one comes from the last game Arraez played this postseason, as he was mired in a deep slump. After that first single, he went 2-for-8 with two more singles the rest of the Atlanta series. Then he went a desultory 4-for-22 (all singles) in the NLDS against Dodgers. He fulfilled plenty of the Arraez-ian promise we expect – just one strikeout in 31 plate appearances – but he simply couldn’t buy a hit.
It’s hard to learn much from a down series like that. Obviously, Arraez wasn’t contributing to the Padres offense – no one contributes when they post a 27 wRC+. But hidden in that statement is an unstated counterfactual: When Arraez goes, it is implied, the Padres go. His single-hitting prowess is the straw that stirs the drink for a fantastic offense that ranked eighth in the majors in runs scored this year despite playing in one of the toughest offensive environments out there.
There’s just one problem with that statement: It’s not true. Arraez didn’t stir the drink for the Padres this year, even as he cruised to his third straight batting title. That sounds crazy, but it’s true. There’s just something about that shiny batting average that messes with our ability to evaluate players. Read the rest of this entry »
We love a postseason breakout star. September’s hipster favorite who by November 1 is on billboards from sea to shining sea. This year, it’s Mets third baseman Mark Vientos, a 24-year-old who just completed his first full season as a major league regular.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a mayoral Yankees/Mets cap and the history of politicians flubbing comments about baseball, tease their next playoff livestream, and discuss when it’s acceptable to call a game “winner take all,” the conclusion of the Division Series round, José Ramírez the motivator, the Tigers’ 2025 outlook, nobody believing in the Dodgers (supposedly), how Dave Roberts is doing, injury-compromised players, the first games of the NLCS and ALCS, the clutch hitting of Kiké Hernández, Giancarlo Stanton, and…Clayton Kershaw, misconceptions about one-knee-down catching, the 2025 Dodgers rotation, an uptick in October TV ratings, and the significance of the CS matchups.
This past Saturday, the Arizona Fall League played host to a tripleheader, with start times staggered enough to see at least most of all three contests at the various ballparks in the eastern part of the Phoenix metro area. My notes and thoughts on the standouts from that day, as well as Monday’s solo game in Peoria, are below. You can find the end-of-year reports and grades on the 2024 Fall Leaguers on the Fall League tab of The Board. Read the rest of this entry »
NEW YORK — The Yankees’ road to an AL-best 94 wins wasn’t the smoothest ride. They overcame significant injuries, and at times dealt with a lack of production from just about everybody besides Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Even as they fought off the Orioles for the AL East flag, they struggled to find the right mix in the bullpen, as All-Star closer Clay Holmes suddenly struggled to lock down the ninth inning. A September shuffle that put Luke Weaver in the closer’s slot has paid big dividends, however, and so far in this postseason, the Yankees bullpen has been a difference-maker. In Monday night’s American League Championship Series opener against the Guardians, Weaver notched a five-out save to preserve a 5-2 victory.
The 31-year-old Weaver — a former first-round pick who until September 6 had never recorded a major league save — has pitched in every Yankees playoff game thus far. He closed out all three Division Series wins against the Royals, going four outs in Game 1 and five outs in Game 3; he also made a one-out cameo in Game 2, New York’s lone defeat. In six shutout innings, he’s allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out nine of the 21 batters he’s faced (42.9%).
In fact, the Yankees bullpen has allowed just two runs (one unearned) in 18 2/3 postseason innings, for a 0.48 ERA. The unit as a whole has surrendered just 11 hits and five walks while striking out 20 (28.2%). Holmes, like Weaver, has pitched every game and has thrown six scoreless innings himself, striking out four while yielding just three hits and one walk.
“Comfortable is not quite the right word. I think tonight was a little bit of a grind for me personally,” said Weaver of Monday night’s 24-pitch save. “I felt really good coming in in the eighth. The ninth, coming back out for the first hitter was a little sloppy, I think that was noticeable. The windup just felt a little funky. I felt the adrenaline coming out of the eighth, [but] going back out for the ninth, was a little depleted… I felt like it was a tick down.”
After Weaver walked Lane Thomas on five pitches to lead off the ninth, he gave himself a bit of a pep talk, flashing a bit of humor as he explained. “So when Thomas got on, it just became like, ‘What are we doing? The fans don’t come here to watch that.’ So I was able to throw some good pitches, and was looking for the double play, but was able to get these good counts.”
Weaver went long because the Guardians had threatened to tie the game. Starter Carlos Rodón had dominated for six innings, holding Cleveland to just three hits while striking out nine without a walk, generating 25 whiffs along the way; meanwhile the Yankees built up a 4-0 lead against starter Alex Cobb and reliever Joey Cantillo, who threw four wild pitches and walked three while retiring just one hitter. The Guardians cut the lead to 4-1 when no. 9 hitter Brayan Rocchio led off the sixth inning with a solo homer off Rodón.
As was the case in the Yankees’ two ALDS wins in Kansas City, Holmes was the first number called by manager Aaron Boone. He didn’t waste much time, inducing Thomas to hit his second pitch, a 96-mph sinker on the outside edge, for a soft groundout. He fell behind Josh Naylor 2-1 before Naylor lined a high-and-away sinker to center field for a routine out. Holmes capped his night by battling pinch-hitter Kyle Manzardo (hitting for right fielder Jhonkensy Noel) for eight pitches before striking him out chasing a low-and-inside sweeper.
“He’s been the nastiest guy we’ve had out there,” said Weaver of Holmes’ middle relief work. “He’s absolutely setting the tone.”
With no off day before Game 2, and with two lefties and a switch-hitter looming, the lane was clear for lefty Tim Hill to pitch the eighth. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt swapped out lefty Bo Naylor for righty Austin Hedges, an even weaker hitter despite the platoon advantage; he flied out. Andrés Giménez followed with a single, and then Rocchio shot a single under the glove of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who was back in the lineup for the first time since fracturing two fingers on his right hand on September 29. Rounding first, Rocchio made contact with Hill, who in moving to cover the bag ended up right in the baseline. Though the pitcher had the ball and tagged Rocchio once he retreated, the umpires ruled he had already committed obstruction, and awarded Rocchio second base.
Giménez scored on Steven Kwan’s single, offsetting Giancarlo Stanton’s solo homer in the top of the frame; it was the first earned run surrendered by the Yankees bullpen this postseason. That prompted Boone to summon Weaver, who fanned pinch-hitter Will Brennan (batting for David Fry) on three low pitches, the last a changeup in the dirt, then induced José Ramírez to ground out to second base.
In the ninth, after walking Thomas, Weaver recovered to strike out the side. Naylor chased a low-and-away changeup. Daniel Schneemann battled to a full count, then tipped a 95-mph four-seamer into Austin Wells’ mitt for the second out. Finally, Weaver blew Hedges away on three pitches, giving the Yankees a 1-0 series lead.
Afterward, pitching coach Matt Blake praised Weaver’s command as the key to his success in working long. “His ability to get in the strike zone early and be effective and be efficient with his pitch counts — he can collect outs quickly and he’ll strike guys out, but he doesn’t have to do seven or eight pitches to get there.”
While the save may not have been easy, Weaver still looked like a pitcher who had been doing the job of shutting the door for much longer than six weeks. A year ago, the role would have been unthinkable. Weaver was designated for assignment twice in 2023, first by the Reds on August 16 — a point at which he briefly wondered if he’d reached the end of the line — and then by the Mariners on September 10. Even with three solid September starts for the Yankees, he finished with a 6.40 ERA, his second season in a row and his third out of four above 6.00; to that point across eight partial seasons in the majors, he owned a 5.14 ERA in 574 1/3 innings, mainly as a starter.
The Yankees had seen some traits in Weaver’s spin rate, arsenal, and clean mechanics that they believed they could tweak, and Weaver embraced the possibilities. Over the winter, he simplifid his delivery, ditching a high leg kick and adopting a slide step. He also adjusted the grips of his four-seam fastball — previously, his middle finger wasn’t in contact with a seam, costing him spin efficiency — and his changeup, helping him generate more spin. Needing to throw 15–20 pitches per outing instead of 80–100, he gained velocity, and recovered more quickly. Two weeks ago, Weaver likened the streamlining to a runner with smoother, tighter arm swings and less wasted energy.
Working out of the bullpen allowed Weaver to ditch his less effective knuckle curve, slider, and sweeper. The changes “helped bring some earlier contact, less foul balls, less getting beat on the pitch,” as he said on Monday. “I think it’s really just the perfect storm of better movement and more confidence.”
For the season, Weaver pitched to a 2.89 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 62 appearances totaling 84 innings. As Marquee Sports’ Lance Brodzowski noted, the vertical separation between Weaver’s fastball and changeup increased from about 8 inches last year (16 inches of induced vertical break for the four-seamer, 8.2 for the changeup) to about 14 inches this year (18.6 inches for the four-seamer, 4.6 for the changeup). The results on those two pitches improved dramatically:
Luke Weaver Results by Pitch Type
Pitch
Season
%
Velo
PA
HR
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
EV
Whiff
Four-Seamer
2023
43.5%
94.0
249
11
.311
.289
.543
.499
.395
.372
90.8
17.5%
Four-Seamer
2024
48.5%
95.7
142
5
.177
.197
.331
.404
.271
.306
92.5
30.0%
Changeup
2023
20.0%
86.1
120
5
.316
.274
.547
.411
.373
.304
87.0
32.3%
Changeup
2024
27.7%
88.6
108
1
.172
.163
.263
.254
.215
.215
83.9
48.0%
Cutter
2023
11.0%
90.3
63
4
.218
.222
.473
.436
.329
.321
89.2
25.2%
Cutter
2024
22.6%
91.3
80
4
.181
.273
.444
.472
.289
.349
86.0
22.8%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
At the outset of the season, the Yankees saw Weaver as a potential sixth starter who could provide multiple relief innings in lower-leverage situations. He allowed seven runs in 10 2/3 innings over his first six appearances, but graduated to a higher-leverage role by reeling off 18 consecutive scoreless innings from April 20 through May 20, giving up just five hits and two walks while striking out 24.
Weaver endured some midseason ups and downs, posting a 3.66 ERA and 4.60 FIP across 32 appearances from May 22 through the end of July. Meanwhile, a whole drama unfolded around Holmes. Through June 9, the 31-year-old sinkerballer allowed runs in just two of his first 30 games, posting a 1.23 ERA and 2.22 FIP. Despite scuffling a bit over the rest of the first half, he made his second All-Star team in three years on the strength of a 2.77 ERA and 2.73 FIP. Even so, he’d already set a career high with six blown saves in 27 chances, owing largely to a .342 BABIP. He blew two of his first three save opportunities coming out of the break; one of those blown saves came in an eventual 7-6 win over the Phillies on July 30, hours after the trade deadline passed.
After jumping out to a surprising 40-19 start without the injured Gerrit Cole, the Yankees went just 25-26 in June and July; the swing merely dropped them from two games ahead of the Orioles to half a game back, but without Holmes’ blown saves, they might have enjoyed a bit of breathing room. At the deadline, even as general manager Brian Cashman supplemented the bullpen by adding Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs and Enyel De Los Santos from the Padres, Holmes remained Boone’s ninth-inning guy despite increasing scrutiny and pressure. In his role as team captain, Judge expressed his support for Holmes after the Phillies game, which saw the pitcher surrender a one-run lead on two singles, two groundouts, and a wild pitch:
Aaron Judge on Clay Holmes:
"That's our closer. I don't know what else to tell you. That's our guy. He's been our guy. I want him out there in any situation, bases loaded and no outs or extra innings or bottom nine, top nine — that's our guy. You can ask anyone in this room if…
Holmes pitched better in August, but still blew two saves, making him just the fifth pitcher over the last decade to reach double digits in that category. By the numbers, which included a 2.67 ERA and 2.48 FIP through August, his season was in line with his 2022 and ’23 campaigns except for a few extra barrels, but the late-inning losses helped keep the Orioles around. As I noted on September 4 while writing about the Yankees’ left field situation, Boone’s avoidance of publicly acknowledging the struggles of both Holmes and Alex Verdugo may have earned loyalty within the Yankees’ clubhouse (and apparently the rest of the organization), but only wound up a frustrated fan base and invited media scrutiny. Things reached a breaking point on September 3, when Holmes served up a walk-off grand slam to the Rangers’ Wyatt Langford. Boone finally addressed the situation the next day: “In the short term, we’ll kind of just get a little creative” with a closer-by-committee arrangement.
He never did have to get too creative. On September 6, he called upon Weaver to close out a 3-0 lead against the Cubs, and the righty did the job, striking out two in the process. “I couldn’t see straight. I was blacked out for the most part. I was on pure adrenaline, but it was a great time,” Weaver said. He went 4-for-4 in save chances, and allowed just one run (unearned) in 11 innings after taking over the role; most impressively, he struck out 24 of 40 hitters in that capacity (60%) while giving up just four hits and three runs. With Holmes in a setup role, things clicked into place for a remade bullpen that included the additions of lefties Hill (who had been released by the White Sox in late June) and Tim Mayza (released by the Blue Jays in early July) and the returns of righties Tommy Kahnle and Ian Hamilton from injuries; the former didn’t debut until May 22 due to a bout of shoulder soreness, while the latter was shelved from May 28 until September 7 due to a lat strain. From September 6 onward, the Yankees bullpen threw 81 innings with a 2.00 ERA, a 3.04 FIP, and a major league-best 32.5% strikeout rate.
Since October rolled around, New York’s relievers have been even better. And now, they’ve helped bring the Yankees within three wins of their first trip to the World Series since 2009.
LOS ANGELES — In early May, Ben Casparius struck out seven Springfield Cardinals over 5.1 scoreless innings, leading the Double-A Tulsa Drillers to a dominant 11-0 victory. Five months later, he was ripping filthy sliders to close out Game 1 of the NLCS for one of the richest teams in the sport.
This is life in the Dodgers bullpen at the moment. After a cursed season for injuries, one where they’ve deployed Plans A, B, C, and D, their Plan E involves a trio of talented-but-unproven arms picking up more innings than Dodgers manager Dave Roberts would like. At points, it has worked out incredibly well — the Dodgers ripped off 33 consecutive scoreless innings between the end of the NLDS and the start of the NLCS, tying a postseason record. But yesterday’s Game 2 revealed the downside of relying on Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, and a bevy of backup options. The designed bullpen game went off the rails early, as the Mets put up six runs in the first two innings and cruised for the remainder of the contest.
Out of necessity, the Dodgers have thrust pitchers like Casparius into the spotlight. According to RosterResource, the Dodgers currently have seven starting pitchers on the injured list, including Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Dustin May. That list does not include Bobby Miller, who was slated to be a big part of the rotation in April but was demoted to Oklahoma City in September after struggling with various maladies all year. It doesn’t include Shohei Ohtani, who is still rehabbing from elbow surgery. And it doesn’t include Alex Vesia, Michael Grove, Joe Kelly, or Brusdar Graterol, all off the postseason roster due to injuries suffered in the last few weeks. Read the rest of this entry »
This is the Carlos Rodón the Yankees thought they were getting. When Brian Cashman inked the lefty to a six-year, $162-million contract in December 2022, Rodón was coming off a two-season stretch in which he’d gone 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 12.23 strikeouts per nine innings. From 2021 to 2022, his 11.2 WAR ranked the third among all pitchers. But, like Samson of old, Rodón’s strength deserted him when his beard fell victim to the Yankees’ facial-hair policy. A forearm strain and a hamstring issue limited him to 14 starts in 2023, and when he did take the hill, he ran an unsightly 6.85 ERA. He was better this season, but he was by no means the ace the Bronx faithful were expecting.
That guy finally showed up on Monday night. Rodón powered the Yankees to a 5-2 victory over the Guardians in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, going six dominant innings and allowing one earned run on a solo homer. He blew his fastball by the Guardians and tempted them over and over again into chasing his slider as it burrowed into the dirt. Read the rest of this entry »
The magic of baseball is that every pitch counts and no game is ever truly over. There’s no victory formation, no garbage time with two minutes left in a 30-point blowout. If you have outs left, you can string together hits ad nauseam and win the game. But while that’s technically true, the game doesn’t really work that way in practice. Most games boil down to a few key moments, where the stakes are heightened and the outcome is truly uncertain. Win those moments, and you generally win the game.
In Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday, there were three such moments. You could use leverage index to tell you that. You could also just watch the game and count when there were a lot of runners on. The Mets won 7-3 to even the series at one game each, but if those three moments had broken differently, the game could have too.
The first inflection point in the game came early. The Dodgers went with a modified version of their plan from last Wednesday: a Ryan Brasier-fronted bullpen game. Landon Knack came in for the second inning this time, which makes sense to me as an armchair manager. The Dodgers were going to need at least one less-trusted reliever to throw, because Alex Vesia got hurt in Game 5 of the NLDS and was left off the roster for this series, and Daniel Hudson apparently wasn’t even available on Monday. Why not get Knack in early, against the bottom half of the Mets lineup, and see whether he had it or not? A scoreless outing would set the Dodgers up to aim high-leverage options at the top of the New York order the rest of the day. A bad outing? They could pull the ripcord and keep everyone fresh. Better to find that out in the second inning than the seventh. Read the rest of this entry »
RosterResource doesn’t stop for anything, not even great postseason play. We’ve already begun to roll out the team Depth Charts for 2025, with more set to go live in the coming days. Our Free Agent Tracker launched earlier this month. And now, the 2025 Payroll Pages are here!
The Payroll Pages will default to the 2025 view after the World Series, but for now, clicking over from a team page will take you to 2024. To view the 2025 page, simply change the Season toggle:
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