Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/20/18

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: I was away and off the grid Thursday, and missing one day of baseball always makes me feel like I missed a hundred. Let’s see how this goes!

9:06

BJOGC: So…. About Carson’s Chat. I wish I hadn’t have been there because now I realize how empty and meaningless life will be without the prospect of him doing weekly chats.

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: It sounds as if he has been successful

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: In that this is one more person who is going to live feeling like life is empty and meaningless

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Here’s Your Periodic Update on the Fly-Ball Revolution

This author spent a fair amount of his 2017 documenting the Fly-Ball Revolution. Of the 330 posts this author published from January through the end of last season, 49 included the term “launch angle.” I looked it up. Overkill? Perhaps. But as a devout believer and documenter, I thought it would be irresponsible not to follow up early this season.

In a piece for The Hardball Times Annual this winter, I wondered aloud if the fly-ball revolution would follow the trajectory of shifts. Shifts were a relative curiosity in 2011 and then enjoyed growth rates of 94.8%, 50.4%, 92.2%, 34.8%, and 57.8% from 2012 to -17, jumping from 2,350 shifts in 2011 to 28,130 in 2016. Shifts fell in total volume for the first time last year, to 26,705. The idea and practice of shifting spread dramatically and rapidly. Just about everyone bought in.

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Yoan Moncada’s Approach Is Actually Working

On Wednesday, Yoan Moncada hit a grand slam and stole a base. Those were the notable accomplishments for the White Sox’ 22-year-old second baseman in Chicago’s game at Oakland. In a less remarkable but still relevant development, Moncada recorded his 300th plate appearances for the White Sox since his debut with the club last June.

Three years ago today, Moncada had yet to play a professional game in the United States, and while he came with considerable hype and pedigree, his play thus far has mostly lived up to the lofty expectations. Here’s his line with the White Sox since his promotion last season.

Yoan Moncada with the White Sox
Name PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
Yoan Moncada 305 11 12.8 % 33.8 % .187 .331 .229 .336 .416 106 3.7 6.1 1.5 1.8

A combination of good patience, decent power, and solid speed have allowed Moncada to mitigate the effects of his one real weakness (swinging and missing) and permitted him to produce solid numbers. And while we can’t simply double the numbers here to arrive at a full-season forecast for Moncada, our Depth Chart projections nevertheless call for an average offensive performance and roughly three-win season in 2018.

If there’s a number that jumps out, however, it’s the one caused by his aforementioned weakness: Moncada has struck out more than a third of the time with the White Sox overall and in just under 40% of his plate appearances this season. That number is scary high. While Moncada has incredible tools, it could be difficult for him to capitalize on his immense talent if he fails to discern strikes from balls.

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DJ LeMahieu Is Up to Something

PITTSBURGH — As defensive shifts — or, at least, infields shifts — have become an everyday part of the game, it takes a lot to get our attention. The Diamondbacks’ shift against Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu last season got our attention.

In case you’ve forgotten, borrowing from a post from last season detailing the alignment:

That gets our attention.

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Jose Bautista Gets One More Chance

The track record for 37-year-olds coming off down years isn’t excellent.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

Jose Bautista hit 23 homers last season but still had trouble finding a job over the winter. This wasn’t a conspiracy against Bautista, though, or a case of the slow free-agent market at work. Those 23 homers put the former star in a tie for just 84th overall in the majors in 2017, a season during which 117 players hit 20 homers and three-fourths of qualified batters hit at least 15.

Between Bautista’s pedestrian home-run figure, his batting line of .203/.308/.366, and his 80 wRC+, few if any teams pursued him. His poor range in the outfield and similarly poor speed on the basepaths rendered him something worse than replacement-level last year, and at 37 years old, it’s reasonable to believe Bautista’s days as a productive player are behind him. Just in case he’s not done, however, the Atlanta Braves are going to give him a shot.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: Mock Draft and El Tablero

2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, linkage: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s today’s mock draft which dumps our current intel.

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s our updated draft board: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: And here are details on the giant board of every minor leaguer we ranked on a list, even if we haven’t posted the full reports ont he site yet: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/introducing-the-board/

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Forgive me if I cut today’s chat short. Yesterday was not a good one in the Galmenhagen house as my wife’s cat of ten years, who has been hospitalized this week, took a turn for the worse. On my wife’s birthday. Yeah. Anyway…

2:03
Billy Beane: Are there any organizations you have a hard time scouting just because of location?

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Bryan Price Becomes a Scapegoat

We thought the Reds were going to be pretty awful. FanGraphs’ preseason projections had Cincinnati finishing last in the NL Central with 71 wins, a 2% chance of reaching the postseason, and zero chance of winning the World Series.

The Reds have been even worse than expected to begin he season, entering play Thursday with a 3-15 record, the most losses in the majors and also (along with Kansas City) the fewest wins. The Reds are also the owners of the major’s worst run differential (-46).

So Cincinnati gave us the most traditional of responses Thursday morning, firing manager Bryan Price. In four-plus seasons with the Reds, Price had a 279-387 mark. He recorded one season of 70 wins or better, a 76-win 2014 campaign. The club also removed pitching coach Mack Jenkins. Read the rest of this entry »


Jarlin the Marlin and Hidden No-Hitters

The 2018 Marlins have had precious little about which to cheer so far, and the forecast calls for more of the same. The performance of 25-year-old lefty Jarlin Garcia has been an exception, however. In the first two starts of his big-league career, Jarlin the Marlin* threw a hidden no-hitter — no hits allowed over a span of 27 outs, stretched across multiple games — via six hitless innings against the Mets on April 11 followed by 4.1 hitless innings against the Yankees on Tuesday night. Garcia was hardly perfect, scattering eight walks across those two starts, but joining Bartolo Colon and Shohei Ohtani in an exclusive club — the other pitchers to throw hidden no-hitters so far in 2018 — is close to perfection itself.

*His name is actually pronounced HAR-leen, which puts him behind teammate Starlin Castro in that pecking order.

Prior to his seven no-hit innings against the Astros on Sunday, Colon had gone the last 2.2 innings of his three-inning relief stint on April 10 without allowing a hit. Ohtani’s last 4.2 innings of his April 1 outing against the A’s were hitless, as were his first 6.1 in the rematch a week later. He and Garcia thus share the season high of 33 outs without a hit recorded.

Like any reputable speakeasy, you won’t find the Hidden No-Hitter Club on Google Maps, but the club itself isn’t that exclusive (a point which I’ll address momentarily). But first, consider Garcia. Unlike Colon and Ohtani, with whom you can’t help but be familiar if you’re reading this, he’s hardly a household name. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Dominican-born southpaw isn’t a rookie, having spent all but the first couple weeks of last season in the Marlins’ bullpen, from which he made 68 appearances to the tune of a 4.73 ERA and 4.23 FIP. He jumped to the majors from Double-A Jacksonville, where over the course of 2016 and early -17 he totaled all of 80.1 innings, mostly as a starter; he missed 10 weeks in mid-2016 due to a triceps strain, and entered last season with mixed reviews as to whether he was even one of the top 10 prospects in one of the game’s worst farm systems.

As a reliever, Garcia held his own through the end of August (2.91 ERA, 3.74 FIP), then allowed nine runs while retiring just three hitters in his first two September appearances. In all, he struck out a modest 18.7% of hitters while relying upon a combination of a four-seam fastball that averaged 94.7 mph, a slider that produced a 14.5% whiff rate and a .194 AVG/.242 SLG when put in play, and a changeup that produced a 21.7% whiff rate and .129 AVG/.258 SLG when put in play (data via Brooks Baseball).

With nothing to lose but another 100 or so games, the Marlins decided to return Garcia to the rotation for 2018, and while the results have been superficially encouraging, neither his .096 BABIP nor his 2.6-point K-BB% mark (16.9% K, 14.3% BB) are sustainable. But until he’s just another guy getting knocked around in a Marlins’ uniform, his performance is at least worth celebrating. In terms of predecessors, I’ve struggled to find a parallel for his hitless first start, which ended after 77 pitches because manager Don Mattingly and pitching coach Juan Nieves saw signs he was laboring.

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Job Posting: Marlins Baseball Operations Analyst Intern

Position: Miami Marlins Baseball Operations Analyst Intern

Location: Jupiter, FL

Description:
The Baseball Operations Analyst Intern will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The specific day-to-day responsibilities of this position will revolve around analyzing data to answer baseball-related questions. A competitive candidate will possess an established foundation of statistical, programming, and database skills. The position will report to the Director of Analytics.

Responsibilities:

  • Research, develop, and test mathematical, statistical, and predictive models to support Baseball Operations in player evaluation, roster construction, and game tactics.
  • Develop data pipelines and visualizations to increase efficiency of the Baseball Operations department.
  • Expand upon Marlins analytical strategy by improving existing resources and creating new data models, metrics, applications, and reports.
  • Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested and present results in a concise manner.

Qualifications:

  • Demonstrated baseball research and strong technical ability.
  • Ability to communicate baseball analytics concepts to individuals with diverse baseball backgrounds, including coaches, scouts, and executives outside of analytics.
  • Understanding of and passion for the game of baseball.
  • Strong familiarity with current state of baseball research.
  • Strong work ethic, attention to detail, and ability to self-direct.
  • Ability to work extended hours including evenings, weekends, and holidays.

Suggested Education/Experience:

  • Bachelor’s degree in an analytical field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, computer science, or operations research.
  • Meaningful work experience with relational databases and SQL, as well as experience with R, Python, or another statistical software required.
  • Understanding of and experience with machine learning and other advanced forecasting techniques is strongly preferred.
  • Experience with a scripting language (e.g. Powershell, Ruby, Perl) or web development strongly preferred.
  • Ability and desire to learn other programming languages as needed.
  • Baseball playing experience a plus.

To Apply:
Please email materials (resume, cover letter, research, etc.) to marlinsanalyticsjobs@gmail.com.


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/19/18

12:01
Jay Jaffe: Hello and welcome to the latest edition of my Thursday chat. I think I injured my shoulder patting myself on the back for predicting Bryan Price would get fired back in 2015, and every subsequent year since. But other than that, i’m doing well…

12:01
Wes: Given the expectations for the Reds this season, how bad of a manager do you have to be to get fired after 18 games? What else was going on in the clubhouse?

12:03
Jay Jaffe: As somebody who long ago failed to see the logic of continuing with Price, I’m clearly not the best expert to ask about his continued employment, but to me, any time you fire a manager this early, it’s an indictment of the decision makers above (unless there’s a specific, precipitating incident). Even 3-15 — if you’re a rebuilding team, you have a plan for the year or you don’t. And I’m not clear on what the Reds’ plan was here that necessitates a change now when it didn’t in October.

12:03
Joshua: What is your favorite IPA?

12:05
Jay Jaffe: Pliny the Elder and Heady Topper are the two favorites, but I’m lucky if I get to taste both in the same year given their scarcity around these parts of Brooklyn. My local go-to lately has been Threes Brewing’s Unreliable Narrator, a dank, tropical IPA that they release about every month or so and deliver to me by the case.

12:05
Slapshot: What are your thoughts on NEIPAs?  If you like them, do you have any particular favorites?

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