That Josh Hader Game
Josh Hader entered Monday’s game in the bottom of the seventh inning with the Brewers clinging to a one-run lead. Nine batters and eight strikeouts later, that one-run lead was the margin of victory. Jeff Sullivan predicted this, or something like this, more than two weeks ago in his article titled “Josh Hader Is Becoming Baseball’s Most Valuable Reliever.” You can see a lot of things coming if you read Jeff’s work, as he covered Hader’s arsenal and how the Brewers lefty is carving up hitters:
If Josh Hader isn’t baseball’s most valuable reliever, he’s close. He could get there soon, elbow willing. Plain and simple, he does everything right, going multiple innings at a time and pitching well independent of batter handedness. You could think of him as peak Dellin Betances, another non-closer who racked up strikeouts over 70 or 80 or 90 innings. Betances made four consecutive All-Star Games. Maybe his control is starting to go, but nothing is forever. Hader is that good, and he’s only improved since basically doubling the size of his repertoire.
Fast-forward a couple weeks and here’s the reliever leaderboard for April.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Hader | 18.0 | 19.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 0.56 | 1.0 |
Adam Ottavino | 16.0 | 16.9 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 1.06 | 0.8 |
Shane Carle | 18.2 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.96 | 2.02 | 3.35 | 0.7 |
Edwin Diaz | 14.1 | 17.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.63 | 1.52 | 2.28 | 0.7 |
Chad Green | 13.0 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.08 | 1.20 | 2.75 | 0.7 |
Carl Edwards Jr. | 13.2 | 15.2 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.66 | 0.93 | 2.40 | 0.7 |
Aroldis Chapman | 12.0 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 1.50 | 0.95 | 2.11 | 0.6 |
Archie Bradley | 15.2 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 1.72 | 1.86 | 2.84 | 0.6 |
Jeurys Familia | 15.0 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 1.80 | 2.20 | 3.44 | 0.6 |
Robert Gsellman | 15.0 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 1.80 | 1.86 | 2.69 | 0.5 |
Hader is rightfully up top. That K/9 number is incredible and the 0.42 FIP naturally follows. Maybe most interesting is that Hader is the only pitcher on the leaderboard who has given up a home run. In small samples like what we have through one month, a homer makes a pretty significant difference. The only other pitchers among the top 20 of reliever WAR with a homer allowed are Craig Kimbrel and Bud Norris. For Hader to top the list despite allowing a home run is truly remarkable. That homer, to Tommy Pham on April 11, was very nearly not a homer considering it was called a double on the field and required a review to be turned into a home run. If that ball was a few feet shorter, Hader’s FIP for the month would have been -0.30. If you were wondering if that would have been some sort of record, the answer is yes, it would have.