Since Byron Buxton arrived in the majors, observers have wondered if he’s going to hit. The concern there is valid, but it also misses the point, because Byron Buxton is already special. He’s already a better hitter than Billy Hamilton is, and if the bat moves further along, the Twins will have a superstar. Yet even with Buxton as what he presently is, he’s the envy of many opponents. The non-hitting skills are where Buxton stands out.

He’s a clear Statcast favorite, because of his league-leading sprint speed, and because of his league-leading outs above average. Buxton’s in the conversation for the most valuable defender on the planet, and Twins pitchers have basically given him credit for saving their most recent season. That speed, though, also helps elsewhere. According to our metric, Buxton was 2017’s most valuable baserunner. He ranked third in baseball in stolen-base value, fifth in double-play value, and seventh in all the rest. Buxton, of course, relies on his speed. But he also benefits from good baseball instincts and big-league experience. Buxton just ran with more confidence than ever, and his baserunning season was just about perfect. I’ll tell you what I mean.

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Over the past several years, we’ve seen a trend away from signing young stars to long-term extensions. As Bryce Harper and Manny Machado head to free agency in their mid-20s, Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, and Francisco Lindor all appear on their way to the same. With stars saying no, teams have been forced to get creative, signing good players to extensions and taking more risk by signing players with very little service time in the majors. The Cardinals’ deal for their shortstop covering six years for $26 million along with two team options fits the bill on both accounts. Paul DeJong is a good player, but he has hardly proven himself with under a year in the majors.

The Cardinals have made a habit of such extensions, reaching agreements with Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Stephen Piscotty, and Kolten Wong in the recent past. Carpenter would have been a free agent this year without such a deal, and Wong is a solid player with the potential to provide considerably more value. Even when the contracts haven’t worked out, the Cardinals haven’t been troubled by them: they were able to deal Allen Craig, for example, before health derailed his career. The jury is still out on Stephen Piscotty, but the club netted two decent prospects when dealing him over the winter.

This deal, both in dollars and the proven quality of the player, mirrors the one for Tim Anderson and the White Sox a year ago.

Consider the following stat lines.

We have two young shortstops who strike out a lot and walk very little. DeJong has shown more power, while Anderson is the better baserunner and presumably better defender. (The sample size for the fielding metrics is too small to draw any conclusions from the numbers.) It remains way too early to pass judgment on the Anderson deal, as the potential benefit for the White Sox doesn’t really begin for another five years, but the first year did not go well. Anderson still struck out a ton, managed to walk even less, and his BABIP dropped by 50 points. He did put up good numbers on the basepaths, but his poor defensive numbers meant a basically replacement-level 0.2 WAR. Even with slightly above-average defense, he would still be a roughly average player. Paul DeJong carries some of those same risks.

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Like dozens of other players, Neil Walker is an established free agent still looking for work as the second week of March approaches. Given his solid track record of production and lack of attachment to a qualifying offer, that would normally rate as a surprise, but he’s just one of several middle-class free agents left out in the cold this winter. Despite being linked to a handful of teams, the 32-year-old switch-hitter hasn’t found a deal to his liking. If this report from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo is accurate, it’s tough to blame Walker, whom the Royals allegedly sought to bring into camp on a minor-league deal with a non-roster invitation.

It would be inaccurate to call Walker a star: he’s never, for example, made an All-Star team in his nine-year major-league career, which began with the Pirates in September 2009. But Walker has been quite consistent, producing an average of 2.7 WAR over the past eight seasons, with very little variance. His low of 1.9 WAR was compiled in 110 games in 2010 after being recalled on May 25. His high of 3.7 was set in 2016, his lone full season with the Mets — that, despite missing all of September due to a herniated disc that required season-ending surgery. Though he missed five weeks with a hamstring strain in 2017 and was traded from the Mets to the Brewers on August 12, Walker turned in a typical Neil Walker season: 2.1 WAR in 111 games with a .265/.362/.439 batting line and 114 wRC+.

Indeed, Walker is a career .272/.341/.437/115 wRC+ hitter who’s been strong against righties (122 wRC+) and subpar but still playable against lefties (91 wRC+), with his recent season splits against southpaws all over the place amid smaller sample sizes. While never a threat to win a Gold Glove, he’s been only slightly below average at second base over the course of his career (-4 UZR/150, -3 DRS/150), sure-handed but a bit lacking in range. He was pretty typical at the keystone in 2017 (-2 UZR, -5 DRS) and branched out to gain experience at the infield corners, starting eight games at first base (which he’d never played in the majors) and four at third (which he last played in 2010, after spending 2007-09 there in the minors).

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Atlanta Braves. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

65 FV Prospects

Acuna has taken an unusual path to becoming an elite prospect. He signed for $100,000 out of Venezuela in 2014, and less than a year later, the Braves knew they had something special. He had gotten more physical while also exhibiting both better-than-expected plate discipline and also lofty exit velocities. Many expected 2016 to be his coming out party — and, in fact, it was in the eyes of scouts who saw him. He had only 179 plate appearances due to injury, though, so he didn’t get a chance to put up the numbers to really draw attention. In 2017, Acuna made the leap from scout favorite and known toolshed to one of the top prospects in baseball.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Ichiro Suzuki’s return to Seattle, Neil Walker’s perplexing unemployment, the unreliability of bullpens, Anthony Gose’s extremely rough start to spring training, and Kyle Jensen’s extremely hot start to spring training, then preview the 2018 Angels (20:44) with The Athletic Los Angeles’s Pedro Moura, and the 2018 Phillies (51:19) with The Athletic Philadelphia’s Meghan Montemurro.

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It’s time to say what I feel like I say every year. The overall team projections are right there, linked up top. You know where they are and you know what to do with them. We’ve talked about them a lot, already, even though the ZiPS projection system was only recently included. We here at FanGraphs are projections dorks. Estimated future baseball is the next-best thing to actual current baseball. And projections offer some relief to panicking over ugly spring-training results.

Mostly, what people care about are wins and losses. That’s obvious and self-explanatory, given that, what’s more fun than winning? But while it’s easy to look at the overall projections, less attention is given to projected components, because the data is harder to track down and see all together. We know the Astros are projected to finish with baseball’s best record. That’s because they’re probably baseball’s best team. They just won the World Series. Okay. But what if you want to know who’s projected to have the best defense? That information is provided. It just doesn’t have its own standings page. It has this blog post instead.

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Episode 804
Recently, Eric Longenhagen and guest Kiley McDaniel published a list of the top prospects for the 2018 amateur draft. More recently, McDaniel himself provided an update on many of those prospects a couple weeks into their respective seasons. In this episode, he not only discusses that update but also recounts a recent trip to the Dominican Republic for MLB’s International Showcase.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 2 min play time.)

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Felix Hernandez’s 2018 season got off to a rough start, as he was drilled on the right arm by a line drive in his February 26 appearance against the Cubs. The Mariners say he’ll miss just one Cactus League start, but on the heels of two subpar, injury-shortened seasons, M’s fans can be forgiven for curling up into the fetal position.

Hernandez took the hill just 16 times in 2017 due to shoulder bursitis and was lit up for a 4.36 ERA and career-worst 5.02 FIP; his 17 homers allowed in 86.2 innings was more than he served up in four of his eight 200-plus inning seasons. His 2016 campaign, which was shortened to 25 starts by a right calf strain, featured a less-than-inspiring 3.82 ERA and 4.63 FIP, as well. His recent decline probably owes something to eroding velocity. Via Pitch Info, his four-seamer has averaged around 91 mph in the past two years, down from a high of 96 in 2008 and 93.6 as recently as 2014. The story is similar for his sinker. He’s not missing as many bats as he used to, and his home-run rate is soaring along with those of just about every other pitcher in baseball. In short, he looks more peasant than king.

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