Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about and break down the lopsided first three games of the World Series: what went as expected, what was surprising, Aaron Judge’s postseason struggles, Freddie Freeman’s heroics, Shohei Ohtani’s injury, pivotal plays, Aaron Boone and Nestor Cortes, TV ratings, and much more, followed by (1:06:47) a brief, a not-about baseball voting PSA.

Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to FG playoff coverage
Link to Sterling call 1
Link to Sterling call 2
Link to Judge interview clip
Link to Stanton play
Link to Boone on the 2004 Red Sox
Link to Ben on Boone and Cortes
Link to Ben on team health
Link to Will Carroll on Ohtani
Link to Jeff Passan on Ohtani
Link to TV ratings info
Link to Langs slams stat
Link to Langs 3-0 stat
Link to Ice Cube video
Link to Fat Joe video
Link to Vote.gov

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“What if they made the whole pitching staff out of high-leverage relievers?” That line of thinking has infiltrated baseball over the past 15 years, and you can see why. The Dodgers built their team around it, and used it to perfection in the first three games of the World Series. When the Yankees weren’t dealing with three solid starters attacking the lineup in short bursts, they were facing an endless array of pitchers who sit in the upper 90s with venomous breaking balls. No wonder the Yankees only scored seven total runs across those three games.

In Game 4, the Dodgers asked another question: What if you made the whole pitching staff out of swingmen? Dave Roberts and the front office always planned on a bullpen game; they’ve been doing those all October. But this one was a wholly different animal than the efforts against the Padres and Mets, and the Yankees took advantage.

Want an example of how it was different? Ben Casparius drew the start, and Roberts gave him two innings, no questions asked. He was shaky as can be. Three walks, a 105-mph double off the top of the wall in dead center, and a few hard-hit balls besides; he spent the entirety of his two innings of work on the ropes, faced 10 batters, and was lucky to escape having only allowed one run. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Remember Mookie Betts? While much of the focus during the Dodgers’ postseason run has been on the inspiring determination — and sudden World Series heroics — of Freddie Freeman in the wake of his ankle injury, and now Shohei Ohtani’s status given his shoulder scare, the Los Angeles lineup’s other former MVP has put together an impressive October. Shaking free of a multiyear postseason slump, the 32-year-old right fielder has been the Dodgers’ top offensive performer thus far. In Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night, he made significant contributions both at the plate and in the field, helping the Dodgers to a 4-2 victory and a three-games-to-none series lead, and putting them within one win of their second championship since the team traded for him in February 2020.

Dave Roberts hasn’t forgotten Betts. “He’s one of the best players on the planet,” said the Dodgers’ manager after the win. “I’m really excited for the postseason that he’s had on both sides of the baseball.”

Through 14 games and 66 plate appearances, Betts is batting .291/.394/.582. His slugging percentage, four homers, and 159 wRC+ all lead the Dodgers, and his 14 RBI is tied with the Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton and the Mets’ Mark Vientos for the lead among all hitters. On Monday, he went 1-for-4 with a walk and an RBI single while making four putouts in right field. In the box score, that line may look mundane, but if you saw the game unfold, his contributions couldn’t escape notice.

“I know it just looks like a regular baseball game, but it’s a lot of emotions, a lot of preparation,” said a drained Betts after the win. “It takes it out of you, so we’ve got to rest up and be ready to do it again.” Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the Arizona Fall League calendar when the weather has officially shifted toward autumn, which makes being at the ballpark during the day about as close to heaven as one can get. The return of great weather also means the return of the Valley’s snowbirds, the (usually retired) folks who only live here during the pleasant time of year. The highways are suddenly very full again, and I’ve become a crabby baby about driving all the way to the West Valley for day games that then force me to drive home in rush hour traffic made more harrowing by the uptick in people. Opportunities to double up at East Valley stadiums are now golden, and I’ll be at Salt River and then Mesa each of the next couple of days.

We’re now deep enough into the AFL schedule that I’m starting to shift my in-person scouting focus toward hitters, especially when pitchers I’ve already seen a couple of times are in the game. It means spending more time down the baselines rather than behind home plate and (probably) more hitter-focused pieces like this for the next couple of weeks. But for now… Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Pepiot was a highly regarded prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization when he was first featured here at FanGraphs in June 2021. Then 23 years old and pitching in Double-A, the right-hander out of Butler University discussed his signature pitch, a changeup that our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen had likened to Devin Williams’ high-spin Airbender.

Pepiot is now with the Tampa Bay Rays, having been acquired from Los Angeles along with Jonny DeLuca in exchange for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot last December. He has also emerged as an established big league starter. Getting his first extended opportunity after making 17 appearances over the two previous seasons, he made 26 starts, posting a 3.60 ERA and 3.95 FIP over 130 innings.

Three-plus years after our initial conversation, I sat down with Pepiot on the final weekend of the 2024 regular season, this time to touch on each of his five pitches.

———

David Laurila: What is your full repertoire right now?

Ryan Pepiot: “Four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, cutter, and a curveball that I’ll throw occasionally.” Read the rest of this entry »

I’m trying out a new format for our managerial report cards this postseason. In the past, I went through every game from every manager, whether they played 22 games en route to winning the World Series or got swept out of the Wild Card round. To be honest, I hated writing those brief blurbs. No one is all that interested in the manager who ran out the same lineup twice, or saw his starters get trounced and used his best relievers anyway because the series is so short. This year, I’m sticking to the highlights, and grading only the managers who survived until at least their League Championship series. I already covered Stephen Vogt and the Guardians. Today, I’m looking at Carlos Mendoza and the Mets.

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of the outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things — getting team buy-in for new strategies or unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable — but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Mark Vientos and Jackson Chourio were also great this October. Forget trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Francisco Lindor is important because he’s great, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. Let’s get to it. Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees came home from a resoundingly unproductive trip to California bloodied, but not beaten. A 2-0 deficit in the World Series is nothing to the Bronx Bombers, who have won four World Series after spotting their opponents two games. (Two of those — 1956 and 1978 — came against the Dodgers, in fact.) That’s more championships than 20 of the 29 other teams have won total.

But a comeback from 3-0? That’s only happened once in major league history — you don’t need to remind the Yankees when — and never in the World Series. So Game 3 was idiomatically, if not literally, a must-win.

From the pregame festivities, in which Fat Joe delivered an unsatisfying sequel to Ice Cube’s performance at Dodger Stadium two days ago, to the first inning, in which two of the first three Dodgers hitters scored, the Yankees were a step behind. The Dodgers, 4-2 winners, are one win from repeating a feat they haven’t achieved since 1963: sweeping the World Series. The Yankee comeback, in the unlikely event it happens at all, will have to start tomorrow. Read the rest of this entry »