George Springer Had a Change of Heart

George Springer hit the game-winning home run last night, and it was — well, look, these aren’t my words. I’ll let someone else express it.

It held up. Unlike previous home runs, it held up, and the Astros won 7-6. And for Springer, it was a game of redemption, because he’d entered in a slump. The playoffs make it hard to figure out a player’s trajectory — when they began, Springer went 7-for-17 against the Red Sox. But he was 3-for-26 against the Yankees, and in Game 1 against the Dodgers, Springer was fitted for a golden sombrero. Springer was at least perceived to be in a rut, and one could argue he might’ve been over-swinging. Now, Springer often swings hard, but here’s a selection from his four Game 1 at-bats.

Fast-forward to Game 2’s 11th inning. This is all I really want to show you. Springer came up with a man on base, and the first two pitches he saw from Brandon McCarthy were balls. Then he saw the same pitch two times in a row. McCarthy threw sliders, sliders that were probably supposed to be further away than they were. But, in any case, at 2-and-0 and 2-and-1, McCarthy threw a couple of low sliders, and Springer swung at them both. Here are the locations, in case you thought I was exaggerating.

Same pitch. Two swings. The first one was a foul ball. The second one led to the decisive line-drive dinger. Let’s look at those swings. Here’s the first!

And here’s the second.

Of course, the swings look similar — hitters have their own hitting mechanics, just as pitchers have their own pitching mechanics. But the follow-through can be a reliable tell, and so, here’s the first, shown as a screenshot.

That’s Springer with, I don’t know, the full wrap. Springer has been a hard swinger since before he even emerged in the major leagues, so there’s nothing astonishing about seeing him swing with such force. But contrast that picture with the next one. Here’s the aftermath of Springer’s second swing at the same low-middle slider.

At 2-and-0, Springer tried to beat the crap out of the ball. At 2-and-1, he cut down on his swing and tried to go back up the middle. The count was obviously different, but it’s not like this was Springer’s two-strike approach, because he wasn’t there yet. You see in the upper image that Springer’s shoulders are completely rotated, and his lower body is turned to face left field. In the lower image, Springer’s lower body is turned more toward center-left, and his shoulders are stopped short of a full rotation. It’s not like Springer was just trying to slap at the pitch — slap swings don’t go for home runs to that area. But, between pitches, Springer changed his mindset, and took a different swing at the same pitch. The twist is that Springer cut down on his swing and wound up with the best possible result. That’s baseball in 2017 for you.

It’s not often baseball gives you virtually identical consecutive pitches. It makes for a convenient comparison, especially when you don’t have a two-strike count involved. George Springer came into the game in a slump, his powerful whack having failed to deliver its usual results. In extra innings, he cut down on that power a little bit. The ball sailed out of the yard. Funny sport.


Tony Kemp on Hitting (the Astros Way)

Tony Kemp had barely started his professional career when we ran a Q&A with him in July 2013. Just a month earlier, the 5-foot-6 second baseman had been drafted in the fifth round out of Vanderbilt University. With his position, physical stature, and bat-to-ball skills in mind, the piece was titled Tony Kemp, the Astros Next Altuve.

Four years later, he is well established at the minor-league level and essentially blocked in Houston. Kemp has slashed .309/.368/.423 in 1,164 Triple-A plate appearances, but when your comp is collecting batting titles, cups of coffee are about all you can ask for. Altuve’s understudy has logged just 175 plate appearances over parts of two big-league seasons.

A more extended opportunity seems inevitable. Whether it comes with the Astros or elsewhere, Kemp will have more than his raw ability to thank. The 25-year-old infielder has learned a lot since joining the organization, most notably how to consistently square up baseballs. In short, he’s learned how to hit the Astros way.

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Tony Kemp on evolving as a hitter: “Man, a lot has changed for me [since entering pro ball]. How my swing has kind of come to fruition, how I’ve adjusted to each level and what needed to happen — control the strike zone, get my strikeout rate down and my on-base percentage up, hit for a little more power… being able to do those things over the last four years has been something special.

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Marwin Gonzalez’s Rajai Davis Moment

The simplest, fundamental truth about closers is that none of them are perfect. Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Craig Kimbrel — they all blow saves, and they all take losses. Give them enough time and the bad outings will even pile up. It was Rivera who took the loss in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. Maybe the best playoff pitcher in history took one of the most devastating losses in memory. Baseball perfection is on a relative scale. All that baseball actually guarantees is that somewhere, somehow, sometime, it’ll piss everyone off. No one is safe from the baseball menace.

No closers are perfect. No closer ever has been perfect, and no closer ever will be perfect. But there’s another fundamental truth about the position. By public perception, closers are binary, black and white. There are the closers — the overwhelming majority of them included — who’ll just never earn trust. The closers who make fans roll their eyes and say “here we go again” when they come in and throw their first ball. Fans have no patience with closers. There’s little tolerance for hittability or wildness. In that sense, it can be a terrible job. There’s limited praise, and limitless blame.

Then there’s the lucky few. It’s a rare breed, but there are closers who’re considered automatic. Closers you don’t even feel you have to watch that intently, because success is a foregone conclusion. Why closely watch a baseball game that’s already over? These closers have all blown saves, each and every one of them, but they retain the perception of invulnerability. Maybe it’s more of an illusion, but one can’t deny its existence.

Kenley Jansen is one of those invulnerable closers. In the same way that Rivera was one of those invulnerable closers, Jansen comes in and basically throws one pitch, and after five or ten or fifteen of them, he gets to go change his clothes. Kenley Jansen is effectively bulletproof. Wednesday night, Kenley Jansen blew a save.

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Game Two Was So 2017

Wednesday night had just about everything you could want in a baseball game. Game 2 is on the list, somewhere, of greatest World Series games in history.

There were dramatic swings in win probability in the late innings for each the Astros and Dodgers. Some of the game’s greatest stars produced signature moments. There was Yasiel Puig being Yasiel Puig, licking his bat and slamming his glove after nearly completing a five-star catch. There was the bill of Chris Taylor’s cap perhaps saving a run early. There was Justin Verlander returning from the visiting clubhouse to the dugout to implore his team to do something. There was this generation’s Rivera, Kenley Jansen, enduring a rare misstep. There was poor Josh Fields. There was a rare test of roster depth, with Austin Barnes becoming the first player to appear at catcher and second base in a World Series game.

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The Defensive Runs Saved by Chris Taylor’s Hat

My father’s an avid tennis player, and there’s this thing he says anytime — or, because he’s a dad, precisely every time — he mis-hits a ball for an accidental winner. “Welp, I paid for the whole racquet,” is what he says. It’s a goofy way of acknowledging some good fortune, of apologizing for having benefited from something other than one’s actual skill.

The Los Angeles Dodgers pay Chris Taylor mostly for what he does with his bat and his glove and legs. But they employ the whole Chris Taylor. And while there was no reason to care about it before last night, one is compelled to acknowledge today that the whole Chris Taylor includes Chris Taylor’s ball cap.

Here’s why that’s relevant. With one out, runners on first and third, and the scored tied at 0-0, Houston’s Alex Bregman hit a liner to center field. What happened next actually kinda did shock everyone.

For those who haven’t fully pivoted to video, the footage above depicts center fielder Chris Taylor diving for Bregman’s liner, missing Bregman’s liner, and then somehow deflecting Bregman’s liner to left fielder Joc Pederson by means of his hat. While the base hit allowed Josh Reddick to score from third, the ricochet to Pederson forced George Springer to stop at second, limiting Bregman to a single. Rich Hill would strike out the next two batters. No further runs would score.

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Is This World Series an Opportunity for MLB?

During Monday’s chat I was asked whether this World Series marked something of an opportunity for baseball.

I answered the question briefly at the time, suggesting that the impact of one series could be overstated, but the matter deserves fuller consideration. Football is contending with some rather public concerns, obviously. Is it possible that this World Series represents an opportunity for baseball to grasp the attention and imagination of a younger audience? To make strides towards once again enjoying status as the National Pastime — or, barring that, at least to recoup the gains made by the NFL over the last two decades?

I understand that a portion, perhaps a significant percentage, of this site’s audience doesn’t really care how popular baseball is. There is perhaps even a portion of baseball’s fanbase pleased that it’s not the No. 1 spectator sport in America, avoiding oversaturation of the sport on ESPN, etc. There are some who might jealously protect it, like one might a favorite indie band for fear that it becomes mainstream, begins performing in NBA-style arenas, and eventually loses that quality that made it most appealing.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 7 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, a collection of corner types and designated hitters.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Zack Cozart / Jarrod Dyson / Lucas Duda / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Todd Frazier / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Jonathan Lucroy / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Jose Reyes / Carlos Santana / Neil Walker.

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J.D. Martinez (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Martinez:

  • Has averaged 554 PA and 3.5 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.8 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 3.8 WAR in 489 PA in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 2.7 WAR per 600 PA**.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $11.8M in 2017 as part of deal signed in February 2016.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starter.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Martinez.

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In Defense of Dave Roberts

Well, that was one of the craziest baseball games anyone has ever seen. A would-be triple that hit the bill of Chris Taylor’s cap and then bounced right to Joc Pederson, a pickoff at second base that looked like Laz Diaz got challenged to an impromptu game of dodgeball, and finally, an extra inning home run derby led to a 7-6 Astros victory, tying the series at one game apiece. If we get any more baseball games like that one, this series will be a classic.

But before most of those crazy things happened, Dave Roberts made a decision that seemingly set the wheels in motion. In the top of the fifth inning, the Dodgers’ manager summoned Kenta Maeda from the bullpen to take over for Rich Hill.

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2017 World Series Game 2 Live Blog

7:55
Dave Cameron: Welcome to the Game 2 Live Blog, everyone.

7:56
Dave Cameron:

I am rooting for

Houston (57.9% | 131 votes)
 
LA (42.0% | 95 votes)
 

Total Votes: 226
7:56
Dave Cameron:

I think

Houston will win (56.1% | 127 votes)
 
LA will win (43.8% | 99 votes)
 

Total Votes: 226
7:57
Dave Cameron:

Rich Hill goes

1-3 innings (5.5% | 12 votes)
 
4+ innings (44.9% | 97 votes)
 
5+ innings (41.6% | 90 votes)
 
6+ innings (5.5% | 12 votes)
 
7+ innings (0.9% | 2 votes)
 
8+ innings (0.4% | 1 vote)
 
9 innings (0.9% | 2 votes)
 

Total Votes: 216
7:58
Dave Cameron:

The Better Justin Tonight

Verlander (82.3% | 182 votes)
 
Turner (17.6% | 39 votes)
 

Total Votes: 221
7:58
Dave Cameron:

Too Many Polls, Dave

True (31.5% | 72 votes)
 
False (68.4% | 156 votes)
 

Total Votes: 228

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 6 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them corner-outfield types.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Alex Avila / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Zack Cozart / Jarrod Dyson / Lucas Duda / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Todd Frazier / Carlos Gomez / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Jonathan Lucroy / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Jose Reyes / Carlos Santana / Neil Walker.

***

Jose Bautista (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Bautista:

  • Has averaged 623 PA and 1.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.7 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a -0.5 WAR in 686 PA in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 1.7 WAR per 600 PA**.
  • Is entering his age-37 season.
  • Made $18.5M in 2017 as part of deal signed in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starter.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Bautista.

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