How to Sign Shohei Ohtani

The Shohei Ohtani show has unofficially begun. After missing over a month with a thigh issue, Ohtani returned to the mound two weeks ago, with scouts from half of the Major League teams reportedly in attendance. For his start on Tuesday night, both Andrew Friedman and Jerry Dipoto were known to be in the stands to watch in person, a start in which Ohtani was clocked at 101 mph and allowed just one hit over 5.2 innings. And after that start, reports from Japan have begun to suggest that there’s an agreement in place for Nippon to post Ohtani this winter, clearing him to come to the Majors for the 2018 season.

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan has a good breakdown of the situation.

It isn’t about the money. Athletes reflexively say this, and sports fans roll their eyes, because of course it’s about the money. It’s always about the money. Then along comes Shohei Ohtani, 23 years old, the finest baseball player Japan has produced in years, maybe decades, a once-in-a-generation sort who can throw 102 mph and hit tape-measure home runs, a player whose free-market value would start at $200 million if Major League Baseball didn’t restrict the signings of international players under 25 to barely $10 million.

Only Ohtani, it seems, does not mind the prospect of giving up literally hundreds of millions of dollars to play in the greatest league in the world. Multiple reports out of Japan on Wednesday morning there said the same thing: Ohtani, who has been called the Japanese Babe Ruth, will enter the posting system this winter and play for a major league team in 2018. This came as no surprise to the general managers and scouts who have flocked in recent weeks to watch him pitch for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. It also didn’t lessen their excitement any.

“It’s really happening,” one GM said, half-mocking, half-giddy at the prospect of the 23-year-old spicing up the free agent market this winter. And fascinating as his courtship would be in normal circumstances, the prospect of the best player available signing one of the most piddling contracts makes it unlike any free agency sports has seen: One where it literally isn’t about the money.

Because last year’s CBA raised the age of international prospects covered by the bonus-pool system to 25, Ohtani isn’t eligible for true unrestricted free agency for two more years. Rather than wait that long — and as a pitcher, two more years of good health is no guarantee — Ohtani will reportedly be posted this winter and then sign under the same rules by which 16-year-olds are bound. He’ll receive a signing bonus of some size (up to about $10 million) depending on which club he ultimately joins and then sign a standard uniform player contract that binds him to the arbitration system until he accrues six years of service time.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1109: Still Streaking

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan revisit their banter about ups and downs and Joe Mauer, then talk about (and talk about talking about) baseball’s long-lasting streaks, their takeaways from the Indians’ and Dodgers’ recent results, who’s actually on the White Sox, which playoff teams are likely to ride their bullpens hardest this October, the pitching potential of Astros third baseman J.D. Davis, and more.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/12/17

11:56
Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best matchup?

CLE vs. Themselves (57.8% | 59 votes)
 
NYY (Gray) vs. TB (Snell) (7.8% | 8 votes)
 
SEA (Gonzales) vs. TEX (Gonzalez) (1.9% | 2 votes)
 
COL (Gray) vs. ARI (Walker) (13.7% | 14 votes)
 
HOU (Verlander) vs. LAA (Richards) (18.6% | 19 votes)
 

Total Votes: 102
9:02
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02
Pizza Pie Thompson: Could Kris Bryant be the leadoff hitter the Cubs have been looking for?

9:03
Paul Swydan: Interesting, interesting.

9:03
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s fine there or in any of the top 4 spots

9:04
Paul Swydan: He’s one of the four-best hitters, and of the four-best hitters he has the highest OBP. But the key is his willingness to hit there. If he doesn’t want to be the leadoff hitter, I wouldn’t make him the leadoff hitter.

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Baseball Has a New All-Time Record

No other sport loves its records in the way that baseball does. Baseball, from the beginning, has lent itself to being tracked by statistics, and it’s almost impossible to talk about baseball without discussing its numbers. Certain numbers are held in particularly high esteem, which is why so many people remain unwilling to accept Barry Bonds as the legitimate all-time leader in single-season home runs. The record is considered too sacred to be held by someone who bent or broke the rules. The all-time hits record is also something sacred, and an international conversation developed as Ichiro Suzuki plugged away. He surpassed Pete Rose in career professional hits, counting his hits in Japan, but Rose was defensive about it, arguing that combining the numbers isn’t fair. Rose has built much of his identity around being the Hit King, and most of us would act defensive when we perceive we’re under threat.

Rose cares about his records. He cares about his legacy. Yet, he lost a record Monday night. I have yet to see a statement or an interview. Maybe he doesn’t care, or maybe he doesn’t know. But as of yesterday, Pete Rose no longer ranks in first place on a major-league leaderboard.

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Eugenio Suarez Can Hit Both Fastballs

Eugenio Suarez can hit the sinker. He’s been able to do it his whole life. And, generally speaking, that means he shouldn’t be able to hit the four-seamer. Or, at least not hit it as well, I mean. That’s typically how it goes, one or the other. It has to do with swing paths and approaches, mostly.

But Suarez has pulled off a rare feat this year. He’s been hitting the four-seamer, too. And he’s improved his success against that pitch by improving something other than his swing.

With an .878 lifetime OPS against sinkers, Suarez ranks in the top quartile among the more than 600 players who’ve seen 500-plus sinkers in the PITCHf/x era. His .797 OPS against four-seamers makes him only average against that pitch, though.

Again, that’s not uncommon. Peruse the top-40 hitters against both the four-seamer and the sinker, and only seven names appear on both lists. You might have heard of Kris Bryant, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Kemp, Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Joey Votto. They’re pretty good.

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Pitch Talks Come to San Francisco on September 18th

The details have come together for Pitch Talks San Francisco this September 18th at The Independent, and it’s shaping up to be a fantastic event. Come see us at 8pm (doors at 7:30) and enjoy live commentary and interaction in a great venue.

We’ve got Giants General Manager Bobby Evans coming for a question and answer session with the crowd, directed by Giants Outsiders host Therese Viñal. That panel has been a highlight in the past and should deliver on its promise again. His take on a team at the crossroads should be very interesting.

The Giants panel is going to be simple, in an effort to let three stars shine. Viñal will return and grab a gab with Hank Schulman and Grant Brisbee, two strong voices in Giants coverage that have their own unique spin on things.

Finally, we’ve added a new sort of panel to the event this year in an effort to place baseball coverage and fandom in the larger context of popular sport in America. The Future of Sport panel will bring together Danny Leroux, an NBA salary cap expert that writes at The Athletic, John Middlekauff, a former NFL scout that does local radio and also pushes the pen at The Athletic, and also Jen Mac Ramos, who was most recently an Assistant General Manager for the independent league Sonoma Stompers.

I’ll make the trio into a quartet, and we’ll talk about the future of all sports, as predicted by media, cultural, and even medical trends. This panel should be a great way to help the Bay Area transition into a fall that won’t feature postseason baseball for once.

The season is winding down, and a turn to the future — whether it’s the Giants or all sports — should be just the ticket.

Speaking of tickets, get yours here. The event is 21+, and FanGraphs readers are welcome to come early for a meetup at 7:30pm. Tickets from the earlier, postponed Pitch Talks will be honored.

See you there!


Paul DeJong on Calm Clarity and Process

For Paul DeJong, it’s all about calm clarity and process. The St. Louis Cardinals rookie believes in coming to the plate with a plan, but also with a clear mind. He feels that if he can stand in the batter’s box and just let things happen — simply recognize and react to pitches — the results will be there.

Three-plus months into his big-league career, the results are very much there. Since debuting with the Cardinals in late May, the 24-year-old infielder has slashed a heady .287/.321/.533. His right-handed stroke has produced 100 hits, 43 of which have gone for extra bases. His 21 home runs are tops on the team.

He reached St. Louis in short order. A fourth-round pick in 2015 out of Illinois State University — DeJong has a degree in biochemistry — he had barely over 1,000 minor-league plate appearances to his credit when he got called up. Based on his performance thus far, that was enough to prepare him to handle big-league pitching.

DeJong talked about his cerebral-yet-simple approach when the Cardinals visited Fenway Park in mid-August.

———

DeJong on hitting with a clear mind: “I’ve made a lot of jumps as a hitter, going from the college level to the big leagues in two years. As much as anything, I’ve tried to slow things down as much as I can. When I get into problems is when I get sped up.

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The Other Reasons Cleveland Can’t Lose

Tonight, the Indians will attempt to win their 20th consecutive game, one shy of the Major League record. They are playing the Tigers, who weren’t good before they got rid of their best players, and are especially not good right now. That not-good Tigers team will throw Matt Boyd, while the Indians will counter with Corey Kluber. Accordingly, our game odds have the Indians at 72% to win today’s contest.

Kluber, of course, is one of the main reasons the Indians haven’t lost since August 23rd. Cleveland has a few of the very best players in the game, and along with Kluber, the team’s core includes Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Carrasco, Carlos Santana, and Edwin Encarnacion, all of whom are performing at a high level. But the Indians had all these guys early in the season too, and for the most part, these guys were performing well before August 23rd too.

It might be stating the obvious, but you only win 19 in a row when you’re getting contributions from up and down the roster. So today, while waiting for Kluber to run through the Tigers depleted, let’s take a minute to talk about the other guys who have made the Indians unbeatable.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 9/12

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, all. Let’s get right to it…

12:02
GPT: Hey, you saw a bunch of AZL Giants baseball last week, thoughts on Seth Corry and Diego Rincones, and anybody else who might make the next Giants prospect list?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Corry is a bit of a project. Body, velocity and breaking ball all look the part but he has 30 command right now. Rincones has some feel to hit but the tools are middling, he lacks physical projection. He needs to hit a lot to profile, though I did speak with someone who thinks he will. Izzy Munguia is a fun little sparkplug who I’ve liked in CF and I think he has above avg bat speed. Jake Gonzalez and Heliot Ramos are obvious ones and I’ve written about Camilo Dovall.

12:05
Chris: Do you think Glasnow will be different this go around?

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s objectively different but I don’t know if he’ll be much more effective. I hope so, though I’ve always been skeptical about the strikes ever coming. I guess we’ll see. He’s 24 now, I think?

12:06
Bork: Any September call ups really standing out to you so far?

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Francisco Lindor Takes Unexpected Route to Great Season

Francisco Lindor is again one of the best players in the game. Following last night’s strong performance, he’s posted an even 5.0 WAR this year, the third straight in which he’s reached the four-win threshold.

The combination of youth and remaining years of team control certainly make him one of the most valuable assets in the game. He’s a significant reason why the Indians enter today with a franchise-record 19 consecutive wins. He’s slashed .365/.434/.770 during the streak.

But he’s arrived here in an unusual way. He’s a very different player than in the past. The 5-foot-11, 190-pound shortstop is tied with Bryce Harper for 26th on the sport’s home-run leaderboard with 29. He’s joined the air-ball revolution. He’s a slugger, but his defense is at career-worst levels in his age-23 season.

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