FanGraphs Baseball

Can the home-run spike be enjoyed equally across the game?

Some hitters are in better position to take advantage of what might be a juiced ball. Some environments, like Yankee Stadium II and Chase Field, are more favorable to fly balls from the hitter’s perspective. With home-run rates rising per fly ball (HR/FB) across the game, however, it seems at times as though no park is immune to the invasion of the long ball. It seems like we’re running out of pitching-friendly environments.

So that brings me to the curious case of the Padres.

The Padres lead the National League in percentage of runs scored via the home run (46.2%). They Padres would have not been my first guess, but I asked FanGraphs’ own Joe Douglas to research teams’ share of runs off home runs and this is what he found:

Now, the Padres are also last in runs scored (305) — in large part because of their league-worst .295 on-base percentage — so it’s not as though this penchant for the long ball has translated directly to offensive proficiency. But the club ranks second in fly-ball percentage (37%), trailing only the outlier Mets (43%), and is tied for third in GB/FB ratio (1.20). The Padres, despite their home, are hunting fly balls and homers and are having some success.

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Over the weekend, the Twins called up speedy center fielder Zach Granite from Triple-A. Granite is a KATOH darling who made my preseason 2017 All-KATOH Team and has been featured regularly on the Fringe Five. Granite’s a stats-over-scouts guy through and through.

I first became aware of Granite around this time last year, when he ranked very highly on KATOH’s midseason top-100 list. At the time, there was little to his profile aside from elite contact and speed. He stole an outrageous 56 bases and played elite defense in center, while also running a strikeout rate in the single-digits. Despite his extreme contact, he only managed to hit a respectable-but-punchless .295/.347/.382.

He’s ramped up his hitting this year. In 59 games at the Triple-A level, he slashed .360/.412/.492, including a .446/.503/.619 tear over his last 36 games. His stolen bases and single-digit strikeout rate remain, but he appears to be driving the ball a bit more than he did in the past. His ISO has spiked to a not-quite-punchless .131, while his BABIP has jumped to .394. Twenty-one extra-base hits in 59 games is respectable, even if that total has been aided by his speed.

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It’s that time of year again: baseball is taking most of the week off to host an exhibition game, and we’re ranking the 50 most valuable trade chips in baseball while they do so. If you aren’t familiar with the series, go read the honorable-mentions post, which includes the introduction and an explanation of what this whole thing is.

As one additional point of explanation, the tables that we’re including below show a few pieces of information: the years remaining before the player is eligible for free agency, whether those years are covered by the arbitration system or a multi-year contract, the guaranteed money owed to the player if a long-term deal is in place, and the ZiPS projections for the player for each year that he’s under control of his current club. The ZiPS forecasts are there to help you get an idea for what one forecasting system thinks of the player’s long-term future, though the players are not ranked solely based on these projections. At the end of the post, we’ll summarize each individual player’s information box with a grid showing all the players ranked in the series so far, and that grid includes the same reference information.

With that said, let’s get right to the guys who made the final 10 spots on the Trade Value list this year.

This last spot was really tough. There are so many players you could put here, with probably 10 to 15 guys having just as strong a case as Lamb for this spot. Even just within third baseman, you could make a case for Justin Turner or Kyle Seager, and then there are all the other good players at other positions who didn’t quite make the cut. If you feel strongly that some other player should be No. 50, I probably don’t disagree with you. Rounding out the list turned into an exercise of picking one of many similarly valuable players.

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After this past offseason’s lack of oomph, the winter between the 2013 and 2014 seasons feels like a different time. In the span of two months, Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw, and Masahiro Tanaka signed $150 million-plus contracts. It’s not the last time that’s happened: the 2015-16 offseason featured the same number of deals — to Chris Davis, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, and David Price — above the $150 million threshold. But there’s enough distance between that earlier offseason and now that it’s possible to review the performances of the relevant players and reconsider the years ahead for them. And as a competitive Yankees club prepares for the second half of the season, it’s worth wondering what will become of former star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

When Ellsbury first signed his deal, Dave Cameron examined (not for the first time) how well fast outfielders with good defense tend to age and noted that it would be dangerous to lump Ellsbury in with Carl Crawford. This was a fair and calm assessment of Ellsbury’s value. He noted that Ellsbury was projected to be a four-win player in 2014, and that over the life of his seven-year deal, Ellsbury was projected to be worth 17.5 WAR. The first part absolutely came true — Ellsbury tallied 4.1 WAR in 2014, his first with the Yankees. The latter projection, however, isn’t working out quite so well.

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Welcome to All-Star week, which around here means it’s once again time for our annual Trade Value series. I’ve been doing this project now for 13 years, dating back to 2005, and have been doing it here since 2008. The project has grown in scope over time, but thanks to help from friends like Dan Szymborski and Sean Dolinar, I think the current presentation is as good as it’s ever been.

For those new to the series, the list is an attempt to answer the question of who would bring back the most in trade for his team if he were to be put on the market and made available before the deadline. Because different teams have varying resources and roster needs, we’re not saying that if one player is ranked ahead of another player, the team with the lower-ranked player would make a one-for-one swap for the higher-ranked player; there are some teams that will put more of a premium on short-term value while others who are looking to maximize long-term potential, and salary is a larger factor for some organizations than others. Of course, every team would love to have a player who contributes both now and in the future, and does so without consuming a large part of their budget; guys who check all of those boxes will rank at the very top of this list.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Nelson (104.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Tanaka (97.2 IP, 87 xFIP-)
For the second straight day, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has selected a Brewers-Yankees games as the day’s most compelling. Each club’s probability of taking their division remains within shouting distance of 50% by the coin-flip method (which seems to best model how the dumb human mind conceives of a playoff race). Accordingly, both clubs are confronted by a sense of mounting urgency.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Four years ago, Manny Margot was 18 years old and playing against older competition in short-season ball. He was more than holding his own. Equal parts precocious and promising, he was one of the highest-ceiling prospects in the Red Sox system. Intrigued by the parallels, I wrote an article titled Manuel Margot: Boston’s Next Bogaerts?

That never came to fruition. Following the 2015 season, Margot was sent to the Padres as part of the package that delivered Craig Kimbrel to the AL East. The change of scenery has been to his liking. One year removed from a stellar season in Triple-A, the native of San Cristobal, Dominican Republic is now San Diego’s starting centerfielder.

While some things have changed, others remain the same. In 2013, Margot told me the game is “all enthusiasm” for him, and that he “never wants to leave this dream.” He echoed those thoughts when I caught up to him earlier this week.

“You always have to play happy,” Margot told me with the help of Padres translator (and Baseball Operations assistant) David Longley. “That doesn’t change as you go through baseball. You’re going to go through some bad streaks, but you put on a good face and those bad times are going to get better. Always play happy.” Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Suter (21.0 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. Severino (99.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
This game — or at least the appeal of this game as measured by the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm — is the product of multiple improbable outcomes. Like the outcome of the Milwaukee Brewers ascending to and retaining a hold of first place in the NL Central, for one. And like the outcome of Brent Suter recording better-than-average run-prevention and fielding-independent numbers over any quantity of major-league innings, for another. And like the outcome of life arising from non-living matter and then, a billion years or whatever later, having arms and legs and hats and buildings.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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