FanGraphs Baseball

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have been incredibly successful on the field under the Guggenheim Group, winning four straight division titles and twice coming within two games of a World Series appearances. Not only does the club possess a massive television contract with Time Warner, but they’ve also drawn more than 3.7 million fans in every season under the current ownership group. The team has also been at the top of Major League Baseball payrolls — and, including competitive-balance tax money, has paid out roughly $1.2 billion in salaries over the past four years. There are rumblings that those payroll figures could come down quite a bit, with a detailed piece from Bill Shaikin in the Los Angeles Times indicating how and why payroll could be reduced.

Shaikin does a good job separating the Dodgers’ debt issues from their payroll concerns. While obviously related at some level — both matters are relevant to the Dodgers’ financial health — the one doesn’t necessarily affect the other. According to the current (and expiring) collective bargaining agreement, teams are forbidden from carrying a franchise debt in an amount greater than eight to 12 times the team’s earnings. (The exact multiplier depends on a few different factors not worth exploring here, and how earnings are calculated and why it matters are explained in this comment.) The rule exists to ensure the financial security of all MLB teams, limit outside influences, and make certain that teams aren’t in danger of going under. The Dodgers’ ownership group has been given five years as a grace period before the rule applies to them, giving them another year to address their debt.

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Though it’s not entirely clear why, it nevertheless appears to be the case that the direction of a batted ball matters when you’re attempting to model the distance over which that same batted ball will travel. Perhaps it’s because of the “slice” balls exhibit off the bat. Perhaps it’s because they exhibit less slice when batted in the direction of the pull side. Perhaps the geometry of the field is somehow responsible for distorting the results. I don’t know. A physicist would be able to tell you more!

Anyway, direction matters, and so it looks like pulling the ball is good for power, even if you keep launch angle and exit velocity constant. And that’s relevant today because Michael Conforto is relevant today. With the return of Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets, the club has one outfielder too many. Both the Mets and their 29 hypothetical trade partners are probably wondering about Conforto’s future production. Which version of him is real: the one that raked in 2015 and September of 2016 or the one who hit 10% worse than league average for three-and-half-months this past season?

I already found earlier this month that Conforto’s “barreled” balls weren’t ideal — and perhaps that it was a result of having hit too many of them to center and left (i.e. the opposite) field.

But you hear coaches say that “pull power comes last,” that a player develops his ability to pull the ball later in the development process. In fact, Don Mattingly said almost that exact thing about Christian Yelich a few months ago to our August Fagerstrom.

From Fagerstrom’s post (bold is mine):

“I still think there’s room for him to grow,” Mattingly explained. “He still hasn’t really truly learned how to pull the ball. When he learns how to pull the ball, he’s going to be really scary. Because they’re not going to be able to do some of the things they do to get him out now when he finds that next angle. Once he gets that next piece in there, he’s going to be one of the best hitters in the game.”

So common wisdom suggests that pull power develops with age. Our data suggests that Conforto barreled too many balls to the opposite field. Is it possible that age will allow Conforto to barrel more balls to the pull side?

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After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Chicago NL / Washington.

Batters
The Blue Jays find themselves in a strangely enviable position right now, if ZiPS is to be believed. The loss both of Jose Bautista (510 PA, 3.1 zWAR) and Edwin Encarnacion (576, 3.6) to free agency creates obvious areas of weakness for the club, nor does the combination of Ezequiel Carrera (381, 0.5) and Melvin Upton Jr. (433, 0.4) appear to be what the metaphorical doctor ordered so far as compensating for those losses. That said, every other position on the team (with the exception of first base) is occupied by a capable starter. Translation: the roster can be improved easily by the installation of even just average players in the corner-outfield slots (and/or first base). The Blue Jays’ reported interest in Jay Bruce and Dexter Fowler (the latter of whom received a three-win projection from ZiPS) is unsurprising, as a result.

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Ben and Sam banter about a scene from Major League, an Adam Jones tweet, and the return of Nora Morse, then talk to BP’s Jeff Paternostro about the Yankees’ farm system, the Mets’ Yoenis Cespedes signing, and the future of international free agency.

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Yoenis Cespedes never really wanted to leave New York, and now he won’t have to. He’s re-signed with the Mets for four years, and it’ll cost the team $110 million and a no-trade clause. It’s the news of the day, and presumably the news of the week, as Cespedes was considered the best player on the free-agent market. Not even that long ago, one wouldn’t have expected the Mets of all teams to be able to make this sort of splash.

They say Cespedes makes an intangible impact. I don’t have much to say about that. They say Cespedes is the straw that stirs the Mets’ drink. I don’t have much to say about that. They say Cespedes might not age very well now that he has his long-term guarantee. I definitely don’t have much to say about that. I want to talk to you about the details. The stupid little crap that might only matter to readers of FanGraphs. Let’s talk about Yoenis Cespedes’ WAR, and how we might be able to make him look better.

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Episode 702
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. On this edition of the program, he provides an audio primer on the current negotiations for baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min play time.)

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The Mets have Yoenis Cespedes back! That’s great news, in that he’s a good player, they’re a win-now team, and good players help win-now teams win more. But it’s also a problem, because the Mets already had too many corner outfielders even before Cespedes re-signed with the team. With Cespedes back, they now have four guys for two spots, with three of the four being too similar to work as complementary parts. This is no longer depth; this is officially a logjam.

Complicating the problem is that the team also still kind of needs another outfielder; Juan Lagares is the only real true center fielder on the roster, but how much they can count on him is something of a question, given the thumb injury that sidelined him in 2016 and the elbow problems that limited him in 2015. If the team sees Lagares as more of a defensive replacement than a regular, then the team with the most crowded corner outfield in the game is still short a starting center fielder.

So, let’s try and help Sandy Alderson out here, and see if we can find some ways to turn four corners and no CF into a three man group the team can be happy with on most days.

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Chris Carter is not, by any stretch of the imagination, what one would characterize as a “pure” or “complete” hitter. He’s the owner of a .218 career batting average and has struck out in 33.1% of his plate appearances. However, 150 of his career 499 hits have also been home runs. As a result, Carter has always found a place to play. His most recent stop was with the Brewers. He hit 41 bombs in Milwaukee this past year, which was enough to tie him with Nolan Arenado for the league lead. He didn’t do much else (recording just a 0.9 WAR this year), but 41 dingers don’t just fall into one’s lap every year. That’s why it’s a little weird that the Brewers seem to have cut ties with their big, slugging first baseman last night. Again, Carter wasn’t that far above replacement level in 2016, but power is power, and it’s hard to imagine that someone wouldn’t have signed up for that in a trade over the winter or at the deadline, when power is such a hot commodity.

To replace Carter, Milwaukee has brought in Eric Thames. Yes, as you’re doing your best Obi-Wan Kenobi impression, Eric Thames. What’s he been up to since 2012, when he last appeared in a big-league game? Do you have half an hour to spare?

Those are all from 2015. Thames joined the NC Dinos in South Korea in 2014 and immediately became one of the biggest offensive threats in the league. He won the league’s MVP award in 2015 with a .381/.497/.790, 47-homer effort. He lost this year to Dustin Nippert, who appeared in 119 major-league games between 2005 and 2010 and posted a 5.31 ERA during that stretch.

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