Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about an “oppo taco” mention in Wake Up Dead Man, a run on free-agent relievers and the lack of late-inning options remaining on the market, when big free agents actually tend to sign, the Nationals’ youth movement in the front office and on the coaching staff, and the stacked USA WBC pitching staff, plus follow-ups on several subjects.

Audio intro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Rian Johnson clip
Link to MLB.com on Weaver
Link to Williams message
Link to FG post on Keller
Link to Arizona gulls
Link to MLBTR on May
Link to Jimmy trailer
Link to Buzzfeed post on Jimmy
Link to remaining FA RP
Link to Nats youth story
Link to Nats youth story 2
Link to Nats youth tweet
Link to MLBTR on DeBartolo
Link to Butera quote
Link to Nats ticket settlement
Link to scouts lawsuit
Link to ump age study
Link to Sheehan research
Link to Raleigh award tweet
Link to USA WBC roster
Link to 2023 roster
Link to Trout WBC story
Link to announced players post
Link to Ben on WBC injuries
Link to Ben on more WBCs
Link to Grinch oral history
Link to roast beast
Link to MLBTR on Kim’s offer
Link to “Big Smooth” article
Link to Pomeranz post
Link to Calcaterra on the HoF
Link to ineligible list wiki

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Give a Gift Subscription
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
 Effectively Wild Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Apple Podcasts Feed 
 Spotify Feed
 YouTube Playlist
 Facebook Group
 Bluesky Account
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Read the rest of this entry »

The Giants have one thing so many other teams covet: a genuine ace to lead their starting rotation. Only one other starting pitcher has accumulated more WAR than Logan Webb over the last five years, and he’s eighth in baseball in park- and league-adjusted FIP over that same period. After posting the best season of his career in 2025, Webb will continue to lead the rotation in ‘26. The rest of the pitching staff, though, is rife with question marks. San Francisco took its first steps toward addressing some of those issues this week, signing Adrian Houser, Jason Foley, and Gregory Santos to bolster the depth across the staff.

On Tuesday, Houser agreed to a two-year, $22 million contract with a club option for a third year. He made a name for himself as a reliable backend starter and swingman for the Brewers across his first seven seasons in the big leagues, before bouncing around six different organizations over the last two years. Traded to the Mets during the 2023-24 offseason, Houser struggled to a 5.84 ERA and 4.93 FIP across seven starts and 16 relief appearances. He made a handful of minor league appearances in the Orioles and Cubs organizations during the remainder of 2024, then signed a minor league deal with Rangers last offseason. Texas never called him up, and so he opted out of that deal and signed a major league contract with the White Sox in May.

I don’t think anyone was expecting a big breakout once Houser joined Chicago’s starting rotation. For most of his career, both of his fastballs averaged around 93-94 mph, but his velocity had dipped a few ticks by the time he was 32 and pitching for the Mets. It was a surprise, then, to see him firing 95-mph four-seamers as a member of the White Sox.

Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: And we are here.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Because we can’t be there.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Can only be here.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think hugely different; the Phillies I think are clearly better.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t released Mets yet!

Read the rest of this entry »

Of the many haunted residences in New Orleans, one in particular comes with a very specific warning: Don’t walk under the gallery. (As a brief architectural aside, a gallery is like a balcony, but it’s held up by posts or columns that go all the way to the ground, as opposed to L-shaped supports attached to the side of the building. The posts allow galleries to extend farther out from the building, typically spanning the sidewalk below. Having a gallery rather than a balcony was, and to some extent still is, seen as a status symbol in New Orleans.) This home sits in the French Quarter, and without getting too far into it because the details are pretty horrific, and this article is ostensibly about the Phillies’ signing free agent reliever Brad Keller to a two-year $22 million contract, the place is said to be haunted by the torture victims of an exceedingly cruel socialite who owned the mansion in the early 1830s.

The spirits who linger remain very unhappy (deservedly so!), and they seem especially offended by the thrill-seekers looking to exploit their suffering in the hope of experiencing some sort of supernatural activity. Many who have sought to prove themselves unbothered by the notion of tangling with a few disgruntled ghosts have marched proudly down the sidewalk under the mansion’s gallery. They did not just find themselves temporarily spooked by a burst of cold air or the smell of rotting flesh. Rather, they found themselves cursed with long-term bouts of bad luck and, for years after the fact, continued to report disturbing encounters with other worldly forces.

Now, is this story exaggerated and sensationalized by the ghost tour industrial complex that exists in New Orleans? Probably. But nevertheless, as a former ghost tour attendee, I’m left wondering if at some point early in his career Dave Dombrowski wandered through a heavily haunted bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

Since the release of Statcast’s bat tracking metrics, I’ve been on a journey to try to marry the old school concept of reading swings with the new school insight that comes from swing data. I peruse leaderboards, oftentimes looking to the extreme leaders and laggards, to understand how my perception of a hitter’s swing aligns with his metrics. Starting at the extremes is fascinating because sometimes a hitter’s swing is extreme in a risky way, while at others, its outlier characteristics are part of what makes it effective. Sometimes, both are true!

For instance, Eugenio Suárez has the steepest attack angle in baseball, leaving him vulnerable at the top of the zone, but also propelling his power profile. Brice Turang has the most inside-out attack direction in the majors, which helps him make consistent contact against any type of pitcher, but also limits his ability to pull. Isaac Paredes makes contact farther out in front of the plate than anybody else, leading to the most aggressive pull swing in the game. And I could keep going! Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bottom-of-the-league attack angle allows him to pair contact with a gap-to-gap approach unlike any other hitter. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman’s steep shoulders and chicken wing arms allow him to get his bat on plane for optimal contact at any height in the zone.

And then there’s Nick Kurtz. His entire swing profile is unique. For most hitters, it’s easy to see how their individual attributes and swing components lead to their overall output. With Kurtz, though, it takes much more digging to understand how his traits harmonize with one another to create the Rookie of the Year-winning performance we saw this year. So how does he do it? Let’s find out. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

The Mariners have had some pretty awesome teams throughout their history, but the World Series has eluded them. Prior to this year, the team had topped out with six-game ALCS exits in 1995 and 2000, and while they missed the Fall Classic again in 2025, they at least set a new high water mark, with a bad seventh inning in Game 7 of their Championship Series against Toronto all that stood between them and a date with the Dodgers. Seattle will largely run it back in 2026, with most of the 2025 team returning for another go.

Looking at the offense, there’s surprisingly little to complain about too strenuously here, and I’m a man known for complaining about things I don’t like. Of the team’s three big hitters who reached free agency this winter — Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, and Jorge Polanco — ZiPS believes that Seattle retained the right one. Naylor provides production at first base that the Mariners can’t replace and have needed for a long time; the M’s have gotten less than one combined win out of their first basemen in nine of the last 20 seasons. Remember how long Evan White was the future of the position? Suárez still projects decently at third, but he’s also five years older than Naylor, and ZiPS sees Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson as being fine at the hot corner, provided the defensive projections are accurate. ZiPS thinks Williamson is one of the minors’ elite defensive third basemen, and that doesn’t clash at all with the scouting reports. Getting that defense is absolutely crucial, though, as he is unlikely to develop into a real plus with the bat, and while there’s more upside with Emerson, he was promoted aggressively this year and may need a consolidation season. Read the rest of this entry »

Bob Dylan can’t get no relief, but the Los Angeles Angels don’t have that problem. They just signed two veteran pitchers, Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Romano, to one-year deals worth $4 million and $2 million, respectively.

I’m starting to get worried that the Angels are becoming orthodox. For most of this decade, there have been two teams — the Angels and Rockies — that you could count on to be truly iconoclastic. The other 28 clubs differed from each other mostly due to flavor of ownership: How many resources their boss was willing to commit to the cause, and what time pressure, if any, was being placed on the executives to win. (It’s probably more like 27 other teams now, with the Buster Posey Era underway in San Francisco, though that’s another story.)

But for the most part, the way you run a baseball team is you hire some business school goon, give him a budget and a list of goals, and let him cook. He then goes out and hires as many quants and biomechanics experts as he can, and let the chips fall where they may. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re a regular FanGraphs reader, then you know that this week, the week after the Winter Meetings, is a week for roundups. The Rangers make a couple moves on a Friday? I’ll bundle them into one snug article. A passel of lefties comes off the board on a Tuesday? Michael Rosen will arrange them into a tidy bouquet. A couple teams talk themselves into believing that they could be the ones to figure out Josh Bell and Adolis García? Michael Baumann will slam his head into the wall repeatedly for our amusement. That’s how it goes.

On Wednesday, Chris Martin, the big, 39-year-old middle reliever from Texas, signed up for one last rodeo with his hometown Rangers. As with many minor deals, no one has reported how much Martin will be paid for the 2026 season. The news seemed all but destined to occupy one quarter of a reliever roundup, but I’d like to give Martin single billing here, because I don’t think we’ve done a good enough job of celebrating just how good he’s been. Let’s start at the beginning. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Along with Prince Fielder, who debuted in mid-2005 and joined the lineup as a regular the following season, Ryan Braun was a transformative figure in the history of the Brewers. Including its one-off season as the Seattle Pilots, the franchise made the playoffs just twice in its first 38 campaigns, back in 1981 and ’82. With Braun — the club’s first-round pick in 2005 — bopping 34 homers in just 113 games en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors in ’07, the Brewers finished above .500 for the first time in 15 years, and the next year, with Braun moving from third base (where he was terrible) to left field and making his first of six All-Star teams, they made the playoffs as the National League Wild Card. They would go on to qualify for the playoffs four more times during Braun’s career, with division titles and trips to the National League Championship Series in 2011 and ’18, though they fell just short of trips to the World Series.

Braun won NL MVP honors in 2011 and went on a memorable October run before the Brewers were eliminated, then led the league in home runs while finishing as runner-up in the voting the following year. He accumulated at least 30 homers and 30 steals in both seasons, but by that point, the legitimacy of those accomplishments was in question. In December 2011, less than a month after he beat out Matt Kemp for MVP, Major League Baseball suspended him for 50 games for testing positive for elevated levels of testosterone, later discovered to be synthetic; the sample had been taken after the Brewers’ first postseason game. With a spokesman citing “highly unusual circumstances,” “Ryan’s complete innocence,” “impeccable character and no previous history” of violations, Braun challenged the suspension. In February 2012, an arbitration panel overturned it due to a technicality involving the delay between when he submitted his sample and when the collector, a man named Dino Laurenzi Jr., sent it to the lab.

Both that reversal and Braun’s following actions — smearing Laurenzi both publicly and privately, even alleging that the collector was anti-Semitic (Braun’s father is Jewish, and Braun publicly embraced his Jewish heritage) — are without parallel in MLB’s long steroid saga. What’s more, Braun’s indignation and proclamations of innocence turned out to be a total sham; in 2013, he was discovered to have received PEDs through the Biogenesis Clinic, and earned a 65-game suspension. Thereafter, he publicly apologized, made amends with Laurenzi, and did his best to rehabilitate his image and demonstrate solid citizenship by continuing his involvement in several charitable organizations; he even earned multiple nominations for the Roberto Clemente Award. While he continued to play a supporting role on some very good Brewers teams (and some not-so-good ones), age and injuries limited his availability and effectiveness. Read the rest of this entry »