For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Houston Astros.

Batters

With the big five on offense (Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Chas McCormick when not being randomly benched), the Astros have a pretty high floor in terms of runs scored. ZiPS projects a gentle decline phase for Altuve; Tucker and Alvarez are smack-dab in their prime years. There are some dark clouds on the horizon, as Bregman and Altuve are free agents after the season, but that’s a problem for Future Dana Brown to worry about.

Jeremy Peña came down a bit from his rookie season, as expected, but he’s still a solidly above-average shortstop overall. Yainer Diaz should be fine with the bulk of the time behind the plate. Jake Meyers seems to get a bad rap, but I’m wondering if part of the reason he feels so unexciting is just how good the rest of the lineup is. The weak spot will likely be first base, even with ZiPS projecting somewhat of a bounceback year from José Abreu, who was awful last season before his power started appearing again in August. Being 37 for the 2024 season limits just how much of a comeback to expect from him. Read the rest of this entry »

Justice Bigbie has gone from a 19th-round draft pick to one of the most promising prospects in the Detroit Tigers system in just two years time. Taken 555th overall in 2021 out of Western Carolina University, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound corner outfielder is coming off his second full professional season, during which he slashed .343/.405/.537 with 19 home runs in 485 plate appearances across High-A West Michigan, Double-A Erie, and Triple-A Toledo. The 24-year-old’s 157 wRC+ was tied for seventh highest among all minor leaguers with at least 400 PA.

Bigbie talked hitting, with a primary focus on high-velocity training, at the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League season, which saw him log a .749 OPS with the Salt River Rafters.

———

David Laurila: In some respects, you came out of nowhere in putting up big numbers this year. On the other hand, your overall track record (which includes a .350/.426/.539 slash line in four collegiate seasons) is that of someone who has always hit. In your mind, did you actually take a huge step forward, or did you mostly just do what you’ve always done?

Justice Bigbie: “I mean, I don’t want to say that I continued to do what I always do. I try to continue to improve, continue to get better each day, and I feel like I’ve done that since getting my first taste of pro ball in 2021. I’m continuously making tweaks to my swing and improving what I can improve on. I think that’s contributed to the success I had this past year.” Read the rest of this entry »

Before Ben Clemens puts together the official Top 50 Free Agents list, he posts a rough draft in Slack and asks for everyone’s opinion. I, personally, didn’t give him much in the way of feedback, because he’s a floating brain in a jar and I’m the guy who’s mostly interested in baseball as a conduit for making stupid jokes in headlines. As long as Shohei Ohtani is no. 1, I’m good. Beyond that, I trust Ben. He knows more than I do anyway.

With that said, I do want to share what little feedback I did offer, because I’ve been thinking about this for weeks: “I have no idea where Mitch Garver should go. I balked at him being as high as no. 18 and then immediately started talking myself into putting him closer to 10.” (Garver was 18th on the first list I saw; he migrated up a spot by the time it was published.)

So let’s do it. Let’s talk ourselves into Mitch Garver as a top-10 free agent. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about listeners’ end-of-year podcast stats, the reported “progress” in Padres-Yankees trade talks concerning Juan Soto, some recent Reds and Mets moves, a possible extension for Brewers prospect Jackson Chourio and the track record of extensions signed before a player’s MLB debut, and several end-of-season MLB awards (past and present) that you may not have heard of. Then (50:07) they talk to FanGraphs senior writer and The Cooperstown Casebook author Jay Jaffe about this year’s Era Committee and BBWAA Hall of Fame candidates, recent voting trends, the 20th anniversary of JAWS, adjustments for framing and decreasing pitcher workloads, the shrinking electorate, and more.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Vulture on Elemental
Link to first report about Soto
Link to second report about Soto
Link to FG post on Severino
Link to FG post on Pagán
Link to FG post on Martinez
Link to Ben C. on TV contracts
Link to RosterResource payroll page
Link to FG SP projections
Link to 2023 FG SP WAR
Link to MLBTR on Chourio
Link to list of pre-debut deals
Link to Sam on extensions
Link to baseball awards wiki
Link to awards named after players
Link to Canadian Baseball HoF episode
Link to The Cooperstown Casebook
Link to JAWS wiki
Link to JAWS at B-Ref
Link to EW guests spreadsheet
Link to Jay on managers, umps, execs
Link to Joe West on EW
Link to Pollis on secret ballots
Link to Jay’s profiles schedule
Link to Jay on the BBWAA ballot
Link to Stark on Wright
Link to Max Marchi on framing
Link to Jay on framing
Link to Ben on framing
Link to Dan Hayes interview
Link to Ben on Piazza’s defense
Link to Max Marchi on framing
Link to Jay on S-JAWS
Link to HoF Ballot Tracker
Link to Thibodaux on EW
Link to crowdsourced FG ballots
Link to Ben’s voting explanation
Link to Secret Santa sign-up sheet

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In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Reds made their second signing in as many days, adding right-handed pitcher Nick Martinez on a two-year, $26 million deal. Evidently, Cincinnati decided to get in on the regional pitching party; of the nine free-agent pitchers to sign MLB deals with new teams so far, six have joined the AL or NL Central. Not to mention that two of the four position players switching teams also came to the Central, and word on the street is that the Brewers are signing top prospect Jackson Chourio to an $80 million extension. The Central division teams, often the most overlooked and underfunded, have been surprisingly active so far this winter.

Martinez, who turned 33 this past August, is coming off the strongest season of his truncated career. Never a top prospect, he struggled over parts of four seasons with the Rangers from 2014 to ’17, posting a 4.77 ERA and 0.5 WAR in 415.1 innings. He was non-tendered following the 2017 season, after which he spent four years in Japan, pitching for the Nippon Ham Fighters and the Softbank Hawks of NPB. His 2021 season for the Hawks was particularly impressive; he averaged more than 6.2 innings per game and finished second in the Pacific League in ERA (min. 50 IP), trailing only Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His performance caught the attention of several MLB clubs, and when the lockout ended, he signed a four-year, $25.5 million deal with the Padres that included opt-outs after every single season.

Martinez performed well enough in 2022 to escape his deal at the first chance he got, pitching to a 3.47 ERA and 4.43 FIP in 47 games. His underlying numbers weren’t as impressive as his ERA, and while he pitched in nearly every role — starter, long-man, set-up man, closer — a lot of his success came in lower-leverage relief opportunities. Still, he knew he could do better than the three years and $18 million remaining on his contract, and indeed, only a few days after he opted out, he and the Padres agreed on a richer contract, albeit one still replete with options, team and player alike.

Martinez looked even better in 2023, but his performance wasn’t quite enough to convince the newly cost-conscious Padres to pick up their team option for $32 million over the next two years. At the same time, the righty decided he could do better than his player option for two years and $16 million. His new deal with the Reds splits the difference at $26 million over two years. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. It was initially written for The Cooperstown Casebook, published in 2017 by Thomas Dunne Books, and subsequently adapted for SI.com and then FanGraphs. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

It happened so quickly. Freshly anointed the game’s top prospect by Baseball America in the spring of 1996, the soon-to-be-19-year-old Andruw Jones was sent to play for the Durham Bulls, the Braves’ High-A affiliate. By mid-August, he blazed through the Carolina League, the Double-A Southern League, and the Triple-A International League, then debuted for the defending world champions. By October 20, with just 31 regular-season games under his belt, he was a household name, having become the youngest player ever to homer in a World Series game, breaking Mickey Mantle’s record — and doing so twice at Yankee Stadium to boot.

Jones was no flash in the pan. The Braves didn’t win the 1996 World Series, and he didn’t win the ’97 NL Rookie of the Year award, but along with Chipper Jones (no relation) and the big three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, he became a pillar of a franchise that won a remarkable 14 NL East titles from 1991 to 2005 (all but the 1994 strike season). From 1998 to 2007, Jones won 10 straight Gold Gloves, more than any center fielder except Willie Mays. Read the rest of this entry »

The New York Mets began their offseason hunt for starting pitching by snatching up Luis Severino on a one-year, $13 million contract. After a rollercoaster season that led to -0.6 WAR, Severino had no choice but to take a prove-it deal and hope his performance in 2024 will be compelling enough to secure a multi-year contract next winter. For the Mets, this is likely the first in a series of moves to address a starting rotation that is significantly depleted after the trades of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander this summer.

The Mets have the coin to play at the top of the pitching market, and will likely do so, but this deal provides them with a short-term upside play to bolster a thin group of starters. With a rotation that is currently filled out by José Quintana, Tylor Megill, and Joey Lucchesi behind their ace, Kodai Senga, a low-cost, high-reward player was a practical move. If he performs and stays health, Severino becomes a trade option for them depending on the team’s performance. If they hold onto him, they can tag him with a qualifying offer or bring him back on a longer term deal. Either way, this move will not hurt them. Most importantly, it will not impact their ability to sign players such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who the Mets reportedly have interest in.

I’m sure Severino and the Mets hope that he can forget most of the summer of 2023 and instead build on the success he had in his final five starts. Among the 172 pitchers who threw at least 80 innings in 2023, Severino ranked 169th in WAR. His surface stats didn’t look any better. He set career worst marks in strikeout rate, HR/9, ERA, FIP, batting average allowed, hard-hit rate… the list goes on. As I said in his Top 50 Free Agent blurb, this wasn’t due to a concerning drop-off in rotational power. His four-seam fastball velocity (96.4 mph) was in the 88th percentile, and it even peaked as high as 97.7 mph in his second-to-last start of the season. This is a player who still has upper-90s gas in his back pocket. Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Dan Szymborski: ITS CLOBBERING TIME

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Jimenez no

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Cease, I’d do something with Westburg as the center (I like Westburg). But I wouldn’t go Westburg AND Mayo

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Well, who he’s replacing really.

Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

This is hardly an impressive set of offensive projections, but given that Detroit ranked 13th in the American League in runs scored in 2023, it would be odd to expect them to be that great at this point in the offseason. And in contrast to a team like the Royals, the Tigers have a lot of interesting players, most with actual upside. ZiPS likes Riley Greene, but that’s nothing new, as he’s long been the system’s favorite Tigers hitter. The computer is a believer in Spencer Torkelson’s second-half power being closer to his actual abilities. Tork was one of the biggest underperformers in the zStats that ZiPS uses as part of establishing a player’s baseline. Now, it’s not exactly projecting him to become Matt Olson or anything, but after 2022 and the early parts of 2023, this constitutes a pretty good comeback. Mark Canha is in his decline phase, but he’ll still at least get on base and is relatively flexible on the diamond, though he’s more of an emergency option at third base and in center field at this point.

Javier Báez is the only really depressing veteran hitter projection here. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s got one last season or so of relevance in there somewhere, but that could just be a relic of my memories from before pitchers figured out how to absolutely shut Báez down. ZiPS isn’t really all that keen on Matt Vierling, and third base might be a useful place for the Tigers to look at upgrading this offseason. A Jeimer Candelario reunion would be fun if he’s into it, though the team may simply utilize Colt Keith and Jace Jung at second and third, depending on how their fielding shakes out. ZiPS is very interested in Justyn-Henry Malloy as a hitter, but it absolutely detests his defense at third.

It makes me sad to say, but even with a very ordinary DH situation, the team picks up one or two wins a year just from not having to play Miguel Cabrera.

Detroit will still likely finish in the bottom half of the league in runs scored, but there are players worth watching here.

Pitchers

Tarik Skubal came back from flexor tendon surgery to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season, and I remain surprised how little he was talked about. He came back throwing harder and with better command than he’d previously had in the majors, making me wonder if they replaced a tendon with an industrial spring. Whatever the cause, ZiPS is into it, though it’s obviously hedging its bets about Skubal’s health. There aren’t any real standouts in the rotation, including recent signee Kenta Maeda, but ZiPS sees the Tigers with a lot of starters just below league average, and the vast majority of them are in their mid-20s or younger, so it’s likely a few of them will break out. The computer is especially interested in Sawyer Gipson-Long and Jackson Jobe.

If our depth charts are right about the pecking order in the bullpen, the Tigers are poised to get the most of their relief corps, and ZiPS especially likes Will Vest and Tyler Holton. The quality of the ‘pen drops off a bit as you get to the back of it, but that’s normal for a team that’s still rebuilding. One or two of the starters who don’t make the rotation might serve to fill that need.

Overall, the Tigers look like a roughly .500 team, but their talent is made up of younger players, so they have a decent win ceiling, though I don’t think there’s much chance they go the route of the 2023 Orioles in 2024. In the AL East, this forecast would mean fighting with the Red Sox, but in the AL Central, the Tigers are actually playoff relevant, though they’re certainly far from the favorite.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

Emilio Pagán has heeded the call. Whose call? The guy in the red tank top in Angels in the Outfield, who yells, “Go back to Cincinnati!”

Pagán, 32, is the second-best right-handed pitcher in this free-agent class who played college baseball in North Carolina and pitched for Puerto Rico in this spring’s World Baseball Classic. (Marcus Stroman remains unsigned as of this writing.) He’ll slot in nicely in the Reds’ bullpen, setting up for Alexis Díaz, the second-best Díaz brother who pitched for Puerto Rico in this spring’s World Baseball Classic.

The Reds like Pagán enough to sign him to a one-year, $8 million contract with a player option for an additional $8 million in 2025. Bob Nightengale noted at the time of the signing that Pagán had just become Cincinnati’s highest-paid player. Fortunately, Pagán held that distinction for just 12 hours before the Reds added Nick Martinez as well. But it was pretty bleak there for a minute. Read the rest of this entry »