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Luke Raley took a big hack. Then he took another.

Raley has struck out 36.6% of the time to begin 2026, third most among batters with at least 100 plate appearances. He’s walked just 5.9% of the time, well below the median. His 0.16 K/BB ratio is one of the 10 worst in baseball this year. That’s typically not a recipe for success.

But this is:

Raley has six homers so far in 2026, carrying him to a 132 wRC+. He’s hitting the ball hard (51.8%), to the pull side (50.0%), and in the air (60.7%). His .595 xwOBA on contact is third in the majors. The only batters who have made better contact are Aaron Judge and James Wood, putting Raley ahead of Ben Rice, Munetaka Murakami, Mike Trout, and Yordan Alvarez. It’s impressive company to keep. Read the rest of this entry »

Not all splitters are the same. Hybrids are common — think “splinkers” and split-changes — hence the variations seen in both velocity and movement. The human element is also at play. Regardless of the grip, one pitcher’s split isn’t necessarily going to behave exactly like another pitcher’s. From finger dexterity to arm action, and whatever else might factor in, differences are inevitable.

And then there is spin. Per Statcast, pitches classified as splitters currently range from 508 rpm (Cade Smith) to 2,105 rpm (Joe Boyle). Fifteen of the 71 pitchers who have thrown a splitter this year (minimum 10 innings pitched) are averaging fewer than 1,000 rpm, with Smith being one of seven under 800 rpm, the others being Logan Gilbert (687), Hunter Barco (689), Mark Leiter Jr. (689), Fernando Cruz (774), and Roki Sasaki (776).

Watching a recent game where a splitter acted almost like a knuckleball got me thinking about low spin, and what better way to learn about the subject than talking to someone in the know? Previously with Driveline and Prime Sports Performance, Spencer Medick is now the pitching coach for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RoughRiders, the Triple-A affiliate of the New York Yankees.

I began by asking Medick if anyone on his current club throws a splitter. Read the rest of this entry »

In my free time, I write a newsletter about professional cycling, because my idea of a hobby is “my day job, but on wheels.” (It’s called Wheelysports, you can find it on Medium or sign up here to get it by email. It’s free, it comes out once a week. The last edition was about a guy who had to drop out of a race because of a perineal cyst. It’s fun.)

In the cycling world, there’s a little Slovenian guy named Tadej Pogačar who’s laying waste to all and sundry. The headline figure is that he’s won the Tour de France four times and is going for a record-tying fifth title this summer at age 28, but that undersells how dominant he’s been over the past few years. I don’t think there’s an argument anymore, he’s the best to ever do it.

And it’s not just that Pogačar is the best bike racer in the world; he’s the best at every component of the sport, which is incredibly rare. That level of versatility is basically unheard of since the days of Eddy Merckx, who is the Babe Ruth of cycling.

Pogačar’s feats are awe-inspiring, and every week it seems like he sets a new record or does something historic, but after years of writing about him, I’m starting to run out of things to say. There are no more superlatives left to lavish upon so great an athlete.

Sound like anyone you know? Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — “He brought that New York theater to the ballpark,” said Aaron Judge about John Sterling before Monday’s game, offering a perfect summation of the approach of the longtime Yankees broadcaster, who died earlier that day at the age of 87 in Englewood, New Jersey. Dressed in a suit and tie even though listeners couldn’t see him, prone to dropping a reference to a midcentury Broadway musical while celebrating a Yankees home run, and delivering his lines with a booming baritone capable of reaching the cheap seats, Sterling brought a unique and dramatic flair to the job.

His grandiloquent style could be polarizing, his puns agonizing. His personalized calls for each Yankee player’s home runs — from “Bernie goes boom! Bern, baby, Bern!” for Bernie Williams to “Robbie Cano, don’t ya know?” for Robinson Canó to “He sends a Tex message!” for Mark Teixeira — could sound a bit corny at times, his stentorian elongation of the word “the,” as in his oft-imitated “Thuuuuuuuuh Yankees win!” a hammy flourish.

When you root for a team, though, calls like Sterling’s punctuate the high points of fandom and the thrill of victory. Sterling never failed to convey the excitement of the ballpark with his triumphant blasts, but he easily downshifted into a calmer cadence with his partners, most notably Michael Kay and Suzyn Waldman, during more mundane moments. Such conversations are the comforting stuff of summers past, and such enduring presences in the booth offer us yardsticks by which we can measure our lives. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the late Ted Turner’s explanation for firing Bobby Cox, how MVP-caliber Mike Trout returned and whether a Trout trade is too much to hope for, Carlos Correa’s season-ending injury and the outlook for the Astros, the offseason’s influx of free-agent retreads from NPB and/or the KBO, and a transparent plunking by Framber Valdez, then Stat Blast (1:25:43) about a Pirates scheduling quirk, an unlikely no. 9 batter, hitting-streak outliers, improbable power outages, identical beginnings to innings, and which events get starting pitchers pulled, plus reactions to the surprising starts of Ildemaro Vargas, Fernando Tatis Jr., Patrick Bailey, Austin Hedges, and Adley Rutschman.

Audio intro: Grant Brisbee, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to “The Tell-Tale Heart”
Link to actual Turner quote
Link to supposed Turner quote
Link to NYT Turner obit
Link to MLB.com Turner obit
Link to story on Turner the manager
Link to Turner wiki
Link to Cox wiki
Link to Cox pitching impact study 1
Link to Cox pitching impact study 2
Link to Cox study 3
Link to Law on Trout
Link to Olney on Trout
Link to Spy Kids Thumb-Thumbs
Link to Trout’s 2024 trade comments
Link to FG farm rankings
Link to FG on-pace leaderboard
Link to Trout’s Savant page
Link to EW episode 2218
Link to EW episode 2374
Link to Paine on Trout
Link to team OF WAR
Link to 2026 Angels preview
Link to Cobb/Speaker article
Link to Dan S. on Correa
Link to Dan S. on the Astros
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to playoff odds changes
Link to Imai’a latest comments
Link to list of NPB/KBO imports
Link to Weiss demotion
Link to previous retread successes
Link to “joint mice” source 1
Link to “joint mice” source 2
Link to Skubal report
Link to The Witches scene
Link to The Witches retrospective
Link to BP on Framber
Link to Framber pitch usage
Link to Framber article
Link to MLBTR on Framber’s suspension
Link to preview-pod Framber talk
Link to Story HBP
Link to Rafaela HBP
Link to story about Hosmer
Link to Hosmer’s video
Link to Hedges 15-game stretches
Link to article on Hedges’ hitting
Link to Rockies batting orders
Link to Jay on Vargas
Link to Roth on Vargas
Link to Murphy quote about Vargas
Link to hitting-streaks data 1
Link to hitting-streaks data 2
Link to PA before first HR data
Link to mid-inning-hook data
Link to MLBTR on Tatis
Link to listener emails database

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On Tuesday night, the Astros came away with a big win against the Dodgers, but they suffered an even bigger loss, as an ankle injury in batting practice resulted in Carlos Correa being pulled before the game. The exact extent of the injury was not initially known, with the shortstop/third baseman scheduled to visit a specialist today, but Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported late this morning that Correa will have surgery and miss the rest of the 2026 season:

Astros source: Carlos Correa will have surgery on his left ankle and will be out for the season. A devastating injury blow for the Astros.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) May 6, 2026

This didn’t seem like the sort of mild sprain that’s healed by a bag of ice and a weekend spent watching old episodes of Top Chef with your foot elevated. Indeed, the initial returns Tuesday night were already pretty concerning, with McTaggart reporting that “the expectation was that Correa would be sidelined indefinitely.” Correa’s injury is to his left ankle, not his right, which appears to have been the source of worry when both the Mets and Giants put the kibosh on signing him in 2022 following team physicals. Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve probably heard of Davis Martin, or someone like him. Martin is a 6-foot-2 right-handed pitcher out of Texas Tech. But he’s not Tyler Davis, a 6-foot-2 right-hander who played at Sam Houston State. Davis is Martin’s teammate. Neither is he Corbin Martin, a 6-foot-2 right-hander out of Texas A&M. Corbin Martin plays for the other Chicago team.

Davis Martin is also not Caleb Kilian, his college teammate, who stands 6-foot-4 and plays for the Giants. Kilian played at Texas Tech with 6-foot-2 right-hander Clayton Beeter, now of the Nationals, and 6-foot-1 right-hander Caleb Freeman. Freeman and Davis Martin both pitched for the White Sox last year, but they’re not the same guy. Chris Martin is easier to remember: Texan and right-handed, but too tall and too old. Austin Davis is a lefty. Austin Martin is a position player. OK, I think we’re out of the woods now. Read the rest of this entry »

To start things off, here’s a riddle for you. Which of these two batting lines would you prefer?

They’re similar, no doubt. I’m pretty sure you’d pick Batter B, though. He walks a lot more and hits more line drives. He also hits the ball hard more frequently while swinging and missing less frequently. Batter A is Nick Kurtz’s spectacular 2025 season (.290/.383/.619, 170 wRC+). Batter B? Nick Kurtz’s slow start to 2026 (.244/.412/.412, 130 wRC+). Huh?

Kurtz’s early-season power outage is hard to understand. His process statistics all look phenomenal. His xwOBA is up year over year. He’s already posted a higher maximum exit velocity, and his average and 90th-percentile exit velocities are both in the top five in baseball. But they don’t play the game in a Statcast spreadsheet, and Kurtz’s results have dipped meaningfully. In 2025, he hit a homer every 13 plate appearances. This year, that number is above 30. His ISO is down from .329 to .168. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss the late John Sterling, fan affection for local broadcasters, and whether any broadcast institutions don’t inspire such attachment, then banter about Anthony Volpe’s demotion, Tarik Skubal’s elbow injury, the Mets’ decision to stand by Carlos Mendoza, dramatically different results in back-to-back Reds-Pirates games, Riley O’Brien’s success, Nick Kurtz, Roy Cullenbine, and prolific walk-drawers with unimpressive power, whether framing and challenging skills are correlated for catchers, and a Baseball Savant-based guessing game, plus follow-ups on Mexico City’s elevation and Dalton Rushing.

Audio intro: Philip Tapley and Michael Stokes, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Brussels sprouts EW episode
Link to Sterling obit
Link to previous Sterling discussion
Link to Sterling on FanGraphs
Link to 2011 Sterling profile
Link to Sterling wiki
Link to Kay wiki
Link to Kay on Sterling
Link to Kay diet piece 1
Link to Kay diet piece 2
Link to Kay diet piece 3
Link to Baumann on Volpe
Link to Clemens on Skubal
Link to Passan post
Link to Tatiana Trumpet story
Link to MLB.com on Skubal
Link to CBS Sports on Skubal
Link to Dan S. on managerial firings
Link to Ball on managerial firings
Link to Stearns on Mendoza
Link to Mendoza’s reaction
Link to seven consecutive walks
Link to worst hitters 2023-26
Link to RP WAR leaders
Link to Clemens on O’Brien
Link to Johnny interview
Link to Johnny and Riley
Link to Mexico City sinking story
Link to status quo bias wiki
Link to 2025 run differentials
Link to 2026 run differentials
Link to Cashman comments
Link to Ben on team turnover
Link to Kurtz streak story 1
Link to Kurtz streak story 2
Link to Cullenbine post 1
Link to Cullenbine post 2
Link to Ben on pre-WAR valuations
Link to Roy Thomas SABR bio
Link to foul-strike rule
Link to Max Bishop SABR bio
Link to Eddie Yost SABR bio
Link to Eddie Joost SABR bio
Link to career + stats
Link to team framing leaderboard
Link to catcher challenges leaderboard
Link to batter challenges leaderboard
Link to Tango’s Soto/Bailey tweet
Link to framing/challenging correlations
Link to Ruiz on framing/challenging
Link to Millas on framing/challenging
Link to Petriello on 2025 challenges
Link to player survey on challenges
Link to Rushing on Lee 1
Link to Rushing on Lee 2
Link to Rushing’s timeout call
Link to Rushing’s challenge
Link to Tango on the challenge
Link to Savantle
Link to other Savant guessing games

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