José Abreu did not have a good season. Signed to a three-year deal by the Astros last November, the 36-year-old first baseman turned in the worst campaign of his 10-year major league career, and even after digging out of a deep early-season slump, he ended up as the least valuable regular at his position. Even so, Abreu has been able to turn the page since the start of the playoffs, and his three home runs against the Twins were a major reason the Astros won the Division Series.
Abreu went just 1-for-7 in the first two games against Minnesota, though his lone hit, a fifth-inning single off Kenta Maeda in Game 1, drove in Houston’s fourth run in what ended up as a 6–4 victory. His three-run first-inning homer to left field off Sonny Gray — a monster shot estimated at 442 feet — broke Game 3 open, turning a 1–0 lead into a 4–0 lead before Astros starter Cristian Javier even threw a pitch; it was probably the turning point of the series. For good measure, Abreu capped the scoring in the 9–1 rout with a two-run homer into the upper deck in left center off Bailey Ober in the ninth inning, this one estimated at 440 feet. On Wednesday night, he struck again, clubbing a 424-foot opposite-field two-run homer off Caleb Thielbar in the fourth inning of a 1–1 game. The Astros didn’t score again but hung on for a series-clinching 3–2 victory. Read the rest of this entry »
Phil Maton can spin a baseball. His four-seamer averaged 2,563 rpm this season, and his signature curveball was an even-more-rotational 3,154. These weren’t new developments. The 30-year-old Houston Astros reliever has long been known for that attribute, with a July 2017 interview with the then-San Diego Padres rookie having served as its first detailed mention here at FanGraphs.
He’s also had a career-best year. In 68 regular-season appearances out of the Houston bullpen, Maton augmented his 4–3 record and one save with a 3.00 ERA, a 3.74 FIP, 74 strikeouts, and just 49 hits allowed in 66 innings. Moreover, October has once again been his friend. Thanks to a pair of scoreless outings in the ALDS, the righty boasts a 1.04 ERA over 16 career playoff appearances.
Maton revisited the importance of spin and discussed a meaningful change to the movement profile of his fastball when the Astros visited Fenway Park at the end of August.
———
David Laurila: Your spin rate was the primary topic when we first spoke six years ago. Now pure spin isn’t considered nearly as important. Do you agree?
Phil Maton: “I think that’s right. Over the years, organizations have figured out that it doesn’t tell the whole picture. There are guys with big breaking balls and hoppy heaters who don’t spin the ball particularly well. That’s where things like spin efficiencies come into play. We’ve identified guys where it’s the entry angle. There are so many different factors in what creates ‘a good pitch.’ Back in 2017, when the spin-rate phase was going on, everyone thought that was the answer. It’s much more complex than that.” Read the rest of this entry »
I’m always a fan of a playoff series that we haven’t seen before, and oddly, the Astros and Rangers have never faced off in the postseason before. But we’ll finally get that battle for Texas supremacy this year in the ALCS, after the Astros shut down the Twins to win in four and the Rangers swept the Orioles and sent them back home for the peak of the steamed crab season. For this championship series, we also get a team without an obvious claim to superiority over the 2023 season, as both tied for the division at 90–72, leading to an unsatisfying Game 163-less conclusion based on head-to-head records.
Houston and Texas having never faced off in the postseason is one of those little accidents of history. The Senators/Rangers took until 1996 to make the playoffs for the very first time, and the Astros only moved to the AL before the 2013 season. Despite playing in the same league, the two franchises haven’t really had their periods of success overlap; 2023 is just the second season in baseball history in which the Astros and Rangers won 90 games in the same season, the only other time being in 1999 (when both teams lost in their respective divisional series). Read the rest of this entry »
As I’ve done for the past fewyears, I’m going to be grading each eliminated postseason manager on their decision-making. We spend the year mostly ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, because to be honest, they’re pretty small. Using the wrong reliever in the eighth inning just doesn’t feel that bad on June 22; there are so many more games still coming, and the regular season is more about managing the grind than getting every possible edge every day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few games to separate wheat from chaff, every last ounce of win probability matters, and managers make personnel decisions accordingly. What better time to grade them?
My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things – getting team buy-in for new strategies and unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable – but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.
I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Evan Carter and the entire Diamondbacks roster have been great too. Forget trusting your veterans – the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Bryce Harper is important because he’s a great player, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. I’ve already covered the losingmanagers of the Wild Card round. Today, it’s Brandon Hyde’s turn. Read the rest of this entry »
PHILADELPHIA — You know what they say about first impressions, right? Well forget it. It’s nonsense.
The Phillies have run back last season’s NLDS result: a 3-1 victory over the rival Atlanta Braves, the no. 1 seed in the National League bracket. This time out was a little more acrimonious than the last, at times a little more touch-and-go, as a cavalcade of pitchers only barely kept the cap on the violently fizzing soda bottle that is Atlanta’s offense.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Diamondbacks’ victory and the Dodgers’ defeat, more musings on playoff randomness, Bryce Harper, Orlando Arcia, and the silliest sports/sports-media controversy of the year, the Astros advancing to the ALCS again (at the Twins’ expense), the all-Texas ALCS, and more.
You all know how playoff relief pitchers work these days. A starter comes out, perhaps earlier than he would in the regular season, and then the parade starts. A 23-year-old who throws 99 with a mind-bending slider. A former starter who pops 100 with ease. A crafty lefty is next, an embarrassment to his peers thanks to a mere 97-mph radar gun reading. Then it’s time for the big cheese, the bullpen anchor; he throws 100 as well, only with a secondary pitch that would get him convicted of witchcraft in an earlier era.
That’s just the way baseball has gone in recent years. Pitcher training is better than ever and velocity misses bats, so the trend is inexorable. In 2014, the average fastball thrown by a reliever in the playoffs checked in at 94.1 mph. In 2022, it hit 95.9 mph. In the not-so-distant future, it will surely top 96. If you can build the entire bullpen out of fireballers, why not do it?
It feels strange to call Ryan Pressly a junkballer. He sits 94-95 mph with a backspinning four-seamer. He threw a pitch 98 mph this season. He’s lived up near 100 at various points in his 11-year major league career. But in modern baseball, he’s downright quaint, a four-pitch reliever who doesn’t rely on gamebreaking velocity. Read the rest of this entry »
Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are sourcing applicants for potential future Minor League Pitching Coach openings in the Player Development Department. Though the team does not have any current openings, we are looking to get to know potential candidates throughout the calendar year in order to (1) begin to vet potential candidates at times more conducive to their schedules; and (2) enable us to move forward more quickly through the hiring process if and when relevant openings do develop. The ideal candidate will possess a passion for player and personal growth, experience integrating multiple information sources to create and implement development plans, and a thorough understanding of skill acquisition principles. Excellent applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and a drive to learn new concepts to problem solve. First and foremost, we are looking for great people!
We are committed to creating an equitable interview process that recognizes the unique identities of all applicants and allows candidates to bring their best selves forward. If you are more comfortable with submitting your materials (i.e., resume, other documents) in Spanish, please feel free to do so.
If you meet some of the qualifications above, we encourage you to apply or to reach out for more information. We know that people from historically marginalized groups – including people of color, women, people from working class backgrounds, and people who identify as LGBTQ – may feel less likely to apply, even though they are qualified, unless they meet every requirement for a job. Therefore, we encourage you to reach out if you have questions about the role or your qualifications. We are happy to help you feel ready to apply!
Essential Responsibilities and Duties
Integrate objective information into a detailed and comprehensive player development plan.
Create effective training environments based off individual player plans.
Collaborate with Physical domains to effectively plan, implement, and monitor a holistic player development plan.
Utilize internal tools, resources, and analytics to assess and adjust player plans.
Communicate development plans and progress with players and Player Development staff and Front Office throughout the year.
Assist field staff with normal daily operations when necessary.
Requirements
Minimum of two years related experience and/or training required. Previous experience with a Major or Minor League Baseball organization or collegiate baseball program is a plus.
Candidate is willing to potentially work at our development complex in Arizona year-round.
Ability to effectively communicate with a wide range of people and backgrounds.
Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English proficiently in all communications.
Interest in personal and professional development with a desire to be involved in internal continuing education opportunities.
Proficiency in Microsoft Office including Teams, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Office, and Outlook.
Preferred Experience We are looking for a variety of skill sets. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be who we are looking for to join our team.
Fluency in Spanish is a plus but not required.
Proficiency in SQL is a plus but not required.
Experience working with Trackman, Edgertronic cameras, biomechanics data, and workload monitoring data.
Strength & conditioning experience is a plus but not required.
Standard Requirements
Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
Primary Purpose
Working as part of the Sport Science team and the relevant affiliate performance teams, this role will collect and provide key physical performance information to athletes, coaches, and front office personnel. The Applied Sport Science Analyst will be providing support to fundamental and physical performance staff and help facilitate the development of world-class sport science practices within the Cleveland Guardians organization.
Core Responsibilities / Duties
Physical Assessmentand Analysis:
Ensure regular valid and reliable physical assessments are conducted on all players.
Provide analysis of assessment data to support physical goal creation and goal progress processes.
Workload Monitoring:
Ensure the collection of objective and subjective workload and readiness information to inform athlete management processes.
Provide analysis of daily workload information to support athlete management decisions.
S&C Programming Support:
Support S&C staff to ensure programs are evidence-based and aligned with physical goals with a high degree of adherence.
Injury Monitoring:
Report on injury prevalence to highlight injury trends, and to develop and evaluate injury prevention strategies.
Education:
Be current with the scientific literature through a community of learners, contribute to the education of players and staff on key performance and sport science concepts and initiatives in alignment with organizational philosophies.
Data Visualization:
Assist in the development of data visualizations across transparent platforms that service players, coaches, performance staff, and front-office personnel.
Other duties as assigned.
Education & Experience Requirements and Preference
Education & Experience:
Bachelor’s degree in Exercise Physiology or Sport Science (or related field)
Master’s Degree in Exercise Physiology or Sport Science (or related field) preferred.
Minimum 2 years of experience as an S&C Coach / Sport Scientist within a professional, private, or collegiate program.
National Certification as a registered sport scientist (NSCA, ESSA, BASES) preferred.
Specialized knowledge across physiology, strength science, motor control, biomechanics, performance analysis, research methods and evidence-based practice and how to apply these disciplines to developing baseball athletes.
Job Requirements:
Highly organized with a growth mindset and an aptitude for strategic thinking
Passion: Demonstrate a clear passion for the game, teammates, and the organization.
Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
Working knowledge of physical performance data and peer-reviewed research.
Proficiency with Microsoft Office.
Experience with R, SQL, Power BI and other statistical software preferred
Standard Requirements
Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively in all communications.
Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with teammates across departments.
Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
Ability to work with diverse populations and have a demonstrated commitment to social justice.
Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes at least 25 lbs.
The Cleveland Guardians are committed to developing and maintaining an environment that embraces all forms of diversity to enrich our core values, enhance our competitive position, strengthen our impact within our community, and foster a greater sense of belonging for our employees.
In this spirit, we know studies have shown that people from historically underserved groups – including women and people of color – are less likely to apply for jobs unless they believe they meet every one of the qualifications as described in a job description. We are most interested in finding the best candidate for the job and understand that candidate may bring certain skills and experiences to the role that are not listed above, but that would add tremendous value to our organization. We would encourage you to apply, even if you don’t believe you meet every one of our qualifications described.
It doesn’t take deep analysis to realize that if your starting pitchers combine to allow 13 runs and record 14 outs, your chances of winning a short series aren’t very good. Likewise if the two superstar MVP candidates atop your lineup go 1-for-21, your four 100-RBI guys combine to drive in one (1) run, and your entire team slugs .250. With numbers like that, it’s not too hard to explain the fate of the 2023 Dodgers, who were swept by the Diamondbacks in the Division Series that concluded on Wednesday night at Chase Field. Despite a slow start to their season and considerable upheaval in their rotation, the Dodgers won 100 games and cruised to their 10th division title in 11 years, but for the third year in a row, they were ousted by a team that finished the regular season miles behind them.
Indeed, the Dodgers’ exit from the past three postseasons accounts for three of the largest differentials in winning percentage between winner and loser in major league history:
Biggest Postseason Upsets by Winning Percentage Differential
Note the increasing frequency with which such upsets have happened, owing to the continued expansion of the postseason. When the two pennant winners went straight to the World Series, it was less likely their records would differ so greatly unless one won at least 70% of its games. And where we once had one postseason series per year, now we have 11, creating so many more opportunities for what look to be mismatches — except that in a short series, anything can happen, a fact we’ve known for well over a century. Just ask Tinker, Evers, and Chance about the 1906 White Sox, the Hitless Wonders who pantsed their crosstown rivals despite the Cubs having the highest single-season winning percentage in AL/NL history. Read the rest of this entry »
PHOENIX — There are a lot of things I think about more in October than I do in July — Halloween! Hay rides! — but none more so than inevitability. Ideas can have a season, and destiny is the stuff of fall. We look at a series, analyze the players and teams, and look for the sure thing. We know that we’re supposed to acknowledge the randomness of playoff baseball; anything can happen in a short series, after all. But c’mon. C’mon! You thought the Dodgers were going to advance to the NLCS. You weren’t sure — you’re a good nerd — but it felt like they would. It seemed like they should. They won 100 games this season to the Diamondbacks’ 84. They have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman powering a potent offense. Sure their starters were hurt, but their bullpen was good. They got a bye and a rest and their first two games at home.
And then a funny thing happened: they got beat. They didn’t just lose the NLDS; the Diamondbacks won it, and rather emphatically. When something like that happens, when results run counter to our expectations, we start to look to the underdogs for their own signs of providence. It can all be very flattening, which is a shame, because the plays and players that make up a game deserve to be understood for what they are: not a script, but bits of dynamism unleashed on 48,175 screaming fans. So before we look ahead to the NLCS or back at the Dodgers’ season that was, below are a few such moments and people from Game 3.
The Third Inning
I don’t envy managers their jobs in the postseason. The stakes are unbelievably high, never more so than when you’re staring down potential elimination. You have to manage for today, tomorrow be damned – heck, there might not be a tomorrow. Your task, if you’re Dave Roberts, is to forget about the existence of Clayton Kershaw, Game 4 starter, and spend whatever bullpen bullets you need to in order to survive. Only how could you do that when Clayton Kershaw, Game 1 starter, left such an impression? You might need those bullets. So you watch Lance Lynn give up a leadoff home run to Geraldo Perdomo, who hit six all season. And then after a Corbin Carroll groundout, you watch as Ketel Marte adds another — this one more emphatic at 107.9 mph off the bat. Still you wait. But then Tommy Pham grounds out; Lynn is only at 38 pitches, and the D-backs have a raft of righties stretching all the way to Alek Thomas coming up. You’re almost out of it!
Yeah, about that.
And then, well.
This was the first time in postseason history that a team hit four home runs in an inning, and depending on how generous you’re feeling, Gabriel Moreno did his part twice. (When Moreno’s real-deal home run left the yard, the Chase Field crowd, which had already sung several choruses of “BEAT L.A.,” lost its collective mind. Discrete words couldn’t be mustered; all I could hear from the press box was a roar.) Caleb Ferguson came in to relieve Lynn, but the damage had been done.
The timing of Lynn’s exit deserves some scrutiny. Before Christian Walker’s laser to left field, as the count went to 1-1, the Dodgers bullpen began to stir, but in a wave-your-arms-around-to-loosen-them-up sort of way.
Two pitches into Moreno’s at-bat, the broadcast noted that Ferguson was up and actually throwing. After the game, Roberts said, “You’ve got two outs and a low-pitch count, and you figure that this run of right-handed hitters, you’ve got to be able to navigate it somewhat with two outs, nobody on base. Then two homers later you’re down 4-0. I had some guys ready. Obviously I can’t predict the future. I try not to be reactionary and get ahead of things. I just can’t predict the future. The way he was throwing the baseball, I didn’t expect that.”
But perhaps he should have. Lynn led baseball in home runs allowed this year with 44, a total that represents the sixth-most allowed in a single season in major league history. All those past long balls don’t guarantee future ones, but if you were going to pick a way for Lynn to join the Dodgers’ parade of ineffective Division Series starters — including his performance, LA’s starting trio mustered a disastrous 25.07 ERA across a mere 4.2 innings of work — a home run or two seemed a likely culprit.
In the bottom of the sixth, after Michael Grove had thrown an inning and Alex Vesia was busy dispatching Arizona’s 7-8-9 hitters, the broadcast noted the perhaps curious absence of Ryan Pepiot. Lauren Shehadi offered that Roberts had told her, “Listen, I have to manage this like there are two more games after it. Pepiot, he’s a bulk guy, we’ve seen it all season long, and if I’m going to get through this series, I need to think past Game 3.”
Roberts’ line of thinking about two outs and right-handed hitters and the bases being empty is logical enough when it comes to Lynn. He’s right, too, that a bulk guy might be useful as a backstop to Kershaw, who even when he’s not having a start like he did in Game 1 isn’t exactly going eight strong these days. But both answers suggest a lack of urgency, too great an emphasis on the cares of later and not enough on the here and oh-crap-we’re-about-to-go-home now. Get a guy up! Bring him in! Consider throwing your bulk dude! Worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. In the third inning, a stoppable force met an extremely moveable object, and unfortunately for the Dodgers, Lynn budged. Roberts probably should have done the same.
The Dodgers Offense
We’ve all had bad days at work. The coffee machine breaks, your presentation goes badly, someone’s on a stinky food kick. Sometimes, though, those bad stretches linger. During the regular season, the Dodgers had the third-best wRC+ in the majors. They hit the second-most home runs and had the second-highest wOBA. They scored just 41 fewer runs than the Braves, and the Braves had an historically good offense. Betts and Freeman were simply marvelous.
Then the calendar flipped to October, and suddenly there was printer toner everywhere. By now you’ve probably heard that Betts and Freeman combined to go just 1-for-21 this postseason. All that pair of MVP candidates could muster was an infield single off the bat of Freeman in Game 2. And they weren’t alone. As a unit, the Dodgers hit .177/.248/.250, “good” for a 40 wRC+; they managed four extra-base hits the entire series. They were outscored 19–6 and never led in the series. J.D. Martinez went 0-for-4 in Game 3. A reshuffled Game 3 lineup resulted in Austin Barnes pinch-hitting against Andrew Saalfrank with the bases loaded and two outs in the seventh rather than David Peralta standing in against a lefty. Barnes swung at a first-pitch sinker and grounded out; it was the last time Los Angeles had a runner in scoring position. After Max Muncy struck out in the ninth, Will Smith managed a single, but a pair of flyouts ended the Dodgers’ season, as the Diamondbacks’ bobcat mascot danced around in a red speedo with “BEAT LA” emblazoned on the butt and the players whooped.
It was a bad night at work, and one of the cruel things about baseball is that where the rest of us muddle through lousy meetings and frustrating expense reports in the hopes of getting a break, the best cure for a down game is simply more time at the office. Even when the copy machine is jammed.
The Young Snakes in the NLDS
Perhaps nothing is better for defying expectations than the emergence of young stars. The likes of Carroll and Moreno (who had to leave the game early but is fine) have bolstered the Diamondbacks all season, and the playoffs are no exception:
Brandon Pfaadt
It would be easy to forget Brandon Pfaadt in all of this. A Wild Card sweep and the quirks of when the National League’s off-days fell meant the Diamondbacks were set up to throw Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen twice each in the NLDS. They still needed a Game 3 starter, however, and that job fell to Pfaadt. His initial foray into postseason pitching didn’t go great: seven hits and three earned runs (including a two-run home run) in just 2.2 innings of work in his Wild Card start versus the Brewers. The first three hitters he faced that night reached; he leaned too heavily on his fastball.
His outing Wednesday night went much more smoothly. The rookie needed 17 pitches to retire his first Brewers hitter; in the first inning on Wednesday, a Betts’ groundout required five, fly outs from Freeman and Martinez needed only one apiece, and boom, one inning down. Though still fastball-heavy, he mixed in more changeups along with a few breaking balls, presenting the more varied arsenal that he and the Diamondbacks staff had identified earlier in the week as so important.
It wasn’t all good. Of the 12 balls the Dodgers put in play, six were classified as hard-hit by Statcast, and the double in the fifth that ended his night would have been a home run in 28 other ballparks. He was bolstered by more good bullpen work; though they allowed two runs, the Snakes ‘pen, which had caused so much consternation this season and inspired the deadline trade for Paul Sewald, posted a 3.27 ERA and 2.44 FIP during the DS. But it was a marked improvement, and one the Diamondbacks have to find encouraging. After all, as Lovullo put it to the media on Tuesday, you need more than two pitchers to get through the postseason, and Arizona isn’t done yet.
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