This World Series has something for everyone: Up-and-coming stars, clutch heroics, veterans hanging around in search of that long-elusive ring. And if you’re like me, you know the most important question of this series is: How can I make it all about a South Carolina Gamecocks team from more than a decade ago?

This is pretty freaking cool!#Gamecocks | #WorldSeries pic.twitter.com/qIozcOe4el

— Gamecock Baseball (@GamecockBasebll) October 29, 2023

On Saturday night, Jordan Montgomery and Christian Walker took the field for a World Series game together. For a second time. Read the rest of this entry »

Shintaro Fujinami has a good understanding of how NPB compares to MLB. Prior to signing with the Oakland Athletics in January (and subsequently being traded to the Baltimore Orioles in July), the 29-year-old right-hander spent 10 seasons with the Hanshin Tigers. Along the way he faced many of Japan’s top hitters, with Central League stalwarts such as Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto among the standouts. The latter was the first name Fujinami mentioned when I asked which of his former position-player opponents would best perform stateside.

“I think that Okamoto, the third baseman for the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants, would be pretty good here,” replied Fujinama, who went 7-8 with a 7.18 ERA over 79 relief innings in his first MLB season. “He’s a power hitter in Japan, although a power hitter there isn’t the same as here. Power hitters in Japan won’t hit 40 home runs over here like Shohei Ohtani does. But he would do well.”

A 27-year-old right-handed hitter, Okamoto slugged an NPB-best 41 home runs this year while slashing .278/.374/.585. He’s gone deep at least 30 times in each of the last six seasons, a span that includes a .274 batting average and 108 strikeouts annually. Despite the not-low K totals, Fujinami believes that Okamoto possesses the bat-to-ball skills to handle MLB pitching. Moreover, he doesn’t feel that high heaters would bedevil the Yomiuri slugger.

“He has good contact-ability, and he’s also good at hitting fastballs,” Fujinami told me during our September conversation. “The fastball velocity here is higher than it is in Japan, but I feel that Okamoto could make an adjustment to that if he came here. I think that Okamoto can hit a fastball at the top of the zone better than Murakami. If I had to pick one to bring here to the states, I would pick Okamoto.” Read the rest of this entry »

One sleepless night after Game 1 was ripped from them in heartbreaking fashion, the Diamondbacks arose from the canvas in Arlington and swung back at the Rangers en route to a dominant 9–1 victory, evening the World Series at a game apiece as the series heads to Phoenix. Arizona’s effort was led by a masterful performance from Scottsdale Desert Mountain High School and Arizona State alum Merrill Kelly, who struck out nine across seven surgical innings en route to the win. The Diamondbacks maintained a modest lead until the final three frames, when the bottom third of their order, which combined to reach base eight times on the night, piled up six runs.

Kelly is a prodigal son of sorts, a former Rays draft pick who left affiliated ball in the U.S. for four seasons in Korea before returning to MLB and his hometown Diamondbacks in 2019. Ironically, the particulars of the postseason schedule and of Arizona’s run to the Fall Classic have prevented Kelly from making a (literal) home start during this postseason, but he looked right at home in Texas on Saturday evening as he carved up one of the season’s most potent offenses. Read the rest of this entry »

For 25 outs, the Diamondbacks’ plan had worked to perfection. Zac Gallen had worked through five gritty innings, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte had given Arizona a lead to hand to the bullpen, and the relief corps had weathered a relentless Rangers lineup. As Paul Sewald entered in the ninth inning with a two-run lead, it looked like the Diamondbacks were on the verge of stealing a victory in Game 1 of the World Series. Corey Seager had other plans. On the first pitch he saw from Sewald, Seager launched a one-out, two-run bomb into the right field stands to tie the game at five.

With the game sent to extra innings, the momentum suddenly swung toward the Rangers, whose potent lineup could end the game quickly, even without the benefit of the Manfred Man on second base to start each inning. After a minor threat was quelled in the 10th, who else but Adolis García had the final word, blasting an opposite field, walk-off home run in the 11th to send Globe Life Field into a state of jubilation. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about saying the wrong episode number in the intro to Episode 2077 and the definition of a title drought, then answer listener emails (18:45) about whether it would make sense to choose a bye in the playoffs if your opponent got to draft a player from the team it defeated, letting a non-playoff team into the playoffs via a lottery, a lineup set by the opposing team’s manager, a NOBLETIGER technicality, placing trampolines on the field, tagging a runner on an object you placed on them, a slugger setting a single-minded goal to break the single-season home run record, loving baseball but not MLB, international talent vs. minor league talent, and Clayton Kershaw playing a partial season à la Roger Clemens.

Audio intro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Temporal Loom explainer
Link to anniversary-gift explainer
Link to types of droughts
Link to lineup-optimization post
Link to more on lineup optimization
Link to EW wiki trampoline page
Link to NOBLETIGER thread
Link to Semien tag explainer
Link to Semien tag video
Link to EW episode on Rendon
Link to league-quality comparison
Link to 2007 article on Clemens
Link to Clemens announcing return
Link to MLBTR on Hill in 2024
Link to EW emails database
Link to Ben on Jagger
Link to Ben on Super Mario Bros. Wonder

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

In the cat and mouse game that is the postseason, every decision matters, regardless of how big or small. If a marginal competitive advantage can be exploited, odds are a team will take their chance. Last year, I investigated what I thought was a key reason for the Astros’ postseason success over the last decade. The piece explored swing path diversity and how Houston had more of it than any other team from 2021 to 2022. Constructing a balanced, dynamic lineup is one of the tools teams can use to keep pitchers and opposing managers honest. There are multiple ways to define balance in a lineup, including swing aggression, whiff tendencies, speed and athleticism, and handedness. But that piece focused on variance in Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) within lineups.

If you aren’t familiar with VBA, it’s the vertical orientation of the bat at contact, where 45 degrees is a diagonal bat. It is pitch height dependent – the number goes down as height increases (flatter bat) and goes up as height decreases (steeper bat), making it vary within a player’s own swing profile. There is also variance player to player. On average, Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman have much steeper barrels at impact than flatter-swinging hitters like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. VBA is one of multiple important bat tracking metrics — horizontal bat angle, point of contact, bat speed, acceleration, and time to contact are a few others — but VBA is the most easily accessible due to the computer vision work done at SwingGraphs. Read the rest of this entry »

No team gets to the World Series without leaning on some of their depth, and part of what gets a team to the finish line is how this supporting cast performs. Name a championship squad, and it’s a safe bet it got some significant contributions from a handful or third and fourth starters, long relievers, hitters further down the lineup, etc.

I’m not a betting man, but I wouldn’t have picked Brandon Pfaadt to be one of those players for one of this year’s World Series teams. Pfaadt, who just turned 25 last week, had a bit of a rocky rookie season, posting a 5.72 ERA, 5.18 FIP, and 4.46 xFIP in 96 innings over 18 starts split by a pair of demotions to Triple-A Reno. He got hit for hard contact, and the strikeout numbers that mitigated the damage in the minors faded when he got to the majors in May. He did get stronger as the year went on, posting a 4.14 ERA, 3.89 FIP, and 3.89 xFIP in August and September — more on that later — but I wouldn’t have expected him to be on the mound for some of the biggest starts of the season — and for the Diamondbacks to win all of them. Read the rest of this entry »

Nick Pivetta had an intriguing and largely successful season. A starter to begin the year, the veteran right-hander was shifted to Boston’s bullpen in mid-May, only to return to the rotation a few months later and finish strong. Save for a smattering of rocky outings — mostly in the early going — he was actually solid throughout. All told, the 30-year-old Victoria, British Columbia native logged a 4.04 ERA and a 3.98 FIP over 142-and-two-thirds innings, the second-highest innings mark on the club.

He was often overpowering. Opposing hitters had a .207 BA and a .221 xBA versus his array of offerings, while his 31.2% strikeout rate ranked in the 93rd percentile among big league hurlers per Baseball Savant. An in-season addition to the Red Sox righty’s repertoire was especially effective: Pivetta posted a 44.4% whiff rate and allowed just a .114 BA and a .127 xBA on his sweeper.

Pivetta, who ended up making 16 starts and 22 relief appearances on the season, discussed his 2023 performance on the final week of September.

———

David Laurila: How would you assess your season as a whole?

Nick Pivetta: “I’d say it was good. I mean, I think I’ve handled the situation well. I’ve gone out and given my best effort — I’ve competed and put everything on the line for the organization — and that’s all I really focus on. I’m always making sure that I’m doing the best I can for the team.” Read the rest of this entry »

Watching playoff baseball is like cramming for a test. Most people watching are either casual fans of the sport or diehard fans of one team only, so it’s incumbent on national writers and broadcasters to get their audiences up to speed quickly. Sometimes that takes the form of an information dump; other times, a team gets distilled down to a couple of talking points. And for a team that was not expected to make the World Series, has a lot of young players, and doesn’t play in a particularly fashionable media market — like, say, the Arizona Diamondbacks — the talking points can be a little crude.

In this case, the Diamondbacks are like a preschooler on a sugar high: Young, small, and always running.

For the first five games of the NLCS, this bullet point looked a little silly, as Arizona attempted just a single stolen base against a Phillies team that holds runners well. But in Games 6 and 7, the Diamondbacks opened up the taps and reaped the rewards: eight stolen bases in eight attempts, leading directly to two runs. Which in turn led to, as you know, winning the pennant.

Can they repeat the trick against the Rangers in the World Series? Read the rest of this entry »

If there’s a surprise about the Phillies falling one win short of a second straight trip to the World Series, it’s not that their fearsome sluggers couldn’t come up with one last big hit when needed. It’s that Philadelphia has gone fishing despite getting more out of its starting pitchers than any of the other postseason participants. Then again, you can call upon Zack Wheeler for relief in a do-or-die game, but you can’t do that every night, nor can you clone him and get an extra start per round. The reality is that any short series depends as much, if not more, on the performances of bullpens that continue to absorb an increasingly large share of the postseason innings. Regardless of those controversial decisions about whether to pull a starter who’s cruising along, eventually it comes down to which team can put out the fires in the seventh, eighth, or ninth innings of the close games.

This isn’t intended to be a “Eureka!” moment in cracking the postseason code — just a reminder as I take another spin through trends in postseason starting pitching, which I’ve been tracking annually for the last several seasons. In the broader context, last year’s rebound of starting pitcher workloads, both in the regular season and in October, may well have been an aberration. Read the rest of this entry »