After shipping Enrique Hernández back to Los Angeles last week, the Red Sox addressed their newfound lack of infield depth with a last-minute trade right before Tuesday’s trade deadline, acquiring Luis Urías from the Brewers for right-handed pitching prospect Bradley Blalock.

Urías only turned 26 years old in June, but he’s already had six years of big league experience under his belt. He was a highly regarded prospect with the Padres before getting dealt to the Brewers in the Trent Grisham trade ahead of the 2020 season, then broke out the next year, posting a 112 wRC+ with 23 home runs and a .249/.345/.445 slash line. That kind of production from an infielder who can capably play anywhere on the dirt seemed to solidify him as a core piece in Milwaukee’s lineup. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury suffered on the first day of the season cost him all of April and May, and once he returned from his injury, he was a shell of his former self, limping to a 60 wRC+ in 20 games in June and getting demoted to Triple-A at the end of the month. Since then, he’s posted a .250/.392/.447 slash line in 20 games for Triple-A Nashville, good for a 113 wRC+. Read the rest of this entry »

The Orioles entered Tuesday with the American League’s best record at 65-41 thanks to a rebuilding effort that’s finally paying off. Nonetheless, the team made just one move to shore up its major league roster in the final week ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring righty Jack Flaherty from the Cardinals in exchange for a trio of prospects, infielder César Prieto, lefty Drew Rom, and righty Zack Showalter.

It’s hardly a high-impact move, particularly given that the Orioles were reportedly among the frontrunners to land Justin Verlander and could deal from strength thanks to their well-stocked minor league system. Yet Verlander — who to be fair could have used his no-trade clause to block a move to Baltimore if it weren’t to his liking — instead wound up being traded back to the Astros. What’s more, aside from Verlander and former Mets co-ace Max Scherzer, who was traded to the Rangers on Saturday, this wasn’t a market where frontline starters changed teams. Instead the moves were centered around rentals such as Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn, whose new teams are hoping they’ll rebound with a change of scenery, while moves for better performers, and pitchers under club control, were generally stifled by the high asking prices. Notably, the Rays, who entered Tuesday a game and a half behind the Orioles, were one team willing to bite the bullet for a better-performing starter by trading for the Guardians’ Aaron Civale.

The 27-year-old Flaherty, who can become a free agent for the first time this winter, fits into the bounce-back group. The former 2014 first-round pick, who had spent his entire career with the Cardinals, made an impact in his first few seasons, placing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 (his age-22 season) and then fourth in the Cy Young voting (and 13th in the MVP voting) the following year. For those two seasons combined, he pitched to a 3.01 ERA and 3.64 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate and 6.9 WAR in 347.1 innings. Whether it was his workload, which included 196.1 innings at age 23 (plus another 17 in the postseason), or just bad luck, his availability has only been sporadic since then. He’s totaled 264.1 inning since the start of 2020, and didn’t throw more than 78.1 in any season from ’20–22 due to an oblique strain and recurrent shoulder woes, which combined to send him to the 60-day injured list three times. Read the rest of this entry »

Jack Flaherty hasn’t quite looked himself since 2019, but the Cardinals were still able to get three prospects for a few months of his services from the Orioles at the trade deadline. The prospect return on the way to St. Louis — whose other deals are covered here, here and here — is made up mostly of near-ready players who should be able to play a role in what we’ve assessed as an attempt to rebuild quickly. The three prospects are Cuban infielder César Prieto, lefty Drew Rom (both of whom were at Triple-A Norfolk), and 19-year-old righty Zack Showalter, who was promoted from the Complex level to Low-A toward the end of June.

While playing pro ball in Cuba, Prieto broke Kendrys Morales‘ rookie hits record and the Serie Nacional’s hit streak record (40 games) in 2020, striking out just six times in 250 plate appearances. The rate of player defections from Cuba significantly diluted the quality of pitching in pro ball down there, so it was difficult to gauge his hit tool with precision. He defected from the Cuban National Team not long after arriving in Miami for an Olympic qualifier in May of 2021 (there’s a riveting Sports Illustrated story that details his “extraction”), and he signed a $650,000 deal with Baltimore at the beginning of the 2022 international signing period.

After torching High-A for a few weeks, Prieto was promoted and spent most of his first minor league season with Double-A Bowie, where he struggled, slashing .255/.296/.348 in 90 games. He halved his strikeout rate when he was sent back to Bowie at the start of 2023, slashed a BABIP-aided .364/.406/.476 and was promoted to Triple-A Norfolk. In about a month prior to the Flaherty trade, he was hitting .317/.365/.471, again with a high BABIP.

Prieto can actually hit. His short levers make him extremely difficult to beat in the strike zone, and he can let the baseball travel deep before striking it the other way, generating doubles power pole-to-pole. His big issue is his propensity to chase, which he did at a 36% clip in 2022 and at a 40% rate so far in 2023, hindering the quality of his contact as well as his ability to reach base. But lefty sticks who make this much contact (91% Z-contact% as of the trade!) tend to carve out some kind of role, especially if they can play multiple positions.

Prieto is a below-average infield athlete and presents a stiff, non-traditional look at both second and third base. He also plays shortstop, but that is not something he’s remotely capable of doing at the big league level. I was hopeful that another full year with pro athletic training facilities and another season of seeing pro-quality pitching after he had access to neither for such a long time would help enable adjustment in these areas, but they’ve continued to be issues. I think the Eric Sogard comp I’ve had on him since his amateur days still holds water. He’s a flawed part-time player, but guys who can hit like this tend to play for a long time.

The other player who should provide a quick turnaround is Rom, an over-slot 11th-round high schooler from the 2018 draft who has slowly climbed through the minors with a cutting low-90s fastball. Especially when he was very young, he looked like he had a chance to break out if he could throw harder as he matured. That hasn’t really happened, and he’s still sitting mostly 90–92 mph, but his fastball still punches above its weight, and he’s managed to strike out more than a batter per inning throughout his pro career. While that likely won’t continue at the big league level because his stuff isn’t nasty enough, he throws enough strikes with his four pitches (if you count his four-seamer and sinker as two different offerings) to project as a depth starter. Already on the 40-man, Rom joins the mix of starters I mentioned in the analysis of the Jordan Montgomery deal as a candidate for the 2024 rotation.

Finally, there’s Showalter, another over-slot 11th-round high schooler, to round out the Cardinals’ return. It took a $440,000 bonus to buy him out of a commitment to USF after last summer’s draft, and he has made a strong pro debut. He generated some scout buzz during Extended Spring Training, then made only a few Complex starts before being promoted to full-season ball a little over a month before the deadline. Showalter works usually three or four innings per outing and sits 93–95 with uphill angle and tail. His delivery is of the open-striding drop-and-drive variety; he keeps his arm action very short and tucked close to his body as he motors toward the plate. It helps keep his release consistent and allows him to hide the baseball well. But he isn’t a fantastic athlete and lacks balance over his landing leg, which is often an indication of relief risk. I’m not yet ready to toss him on the main section of the updated Cardinals prospect list, but he’s a solid low-level arm with a mean outcome of a fastball/slider reliever. Prieto (40 FV, a 1-WAR annual performer who I expect will get 350–400 PA in his best years) and Rom (35+ FV, a spot starter) do make the cut.

This return isn’t enough to alter what I outlined in the Montgomery piece. The Cardinals still have a below-average farm system but have filled up the upper levels during this mini-rebuild and should have the pitching depth to compete for the NL Central next year if their core of hitters stays healthy and performs as expected. As a return for the Jack Flaherty who looked like one of the better pitchers in the NL for a little while, it feels light. But for the recently vanilla, free-agent-to-be Jack Flaherty, it makes sense for St. Louis to have received a few lesser prospects.

AJ Preller couldn’t keep it going forever. For years, he had his fingerprints on every major trade and free agency signing. He got Juan Soto! He got Josh Hader! He made a last-second pass at Aaron Judge before signing Xander Bogaerts. He built up a solid farm system and then lovingly tore it apart for established major leaguers, and he did it so frequently that he seemed to be in on every last deal.

This deadline, Preller finally rested. Earlier in the day, he engaged in some light veteran-snagging activity, adding Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi in exchange for a prospect sampler platter. A bit later, he swapped Ryan Weathers for Garrett Cooper and Sean Reynolds, but there was no seismic move to follow. The Padres’ last involvement with the trade deadline was another modest swing. They acquired Scott Barlow from the Royals in exchange for prospects Henry Williams and Jesus Rios.

I’ll level with you: this one won’t move the needle much. Barlow is a reliever archetype, reliably unreliable thanks to devastating stuff and lackluster command. He had a 3.62 FIP last year and checks in at 3.63 so far this year. Consistent like you wouldn’t believe! But he had a 2.18 ERA last season and has a ghastly 5.35 mark so far this year, so whoops.

That ERA can be attributed to a .340 BABIP and a teensie strand rate, but to be honest, watching Barlow pitch doesn’t give me the vibe of a mid-3.00s ERA reliever. He’s been quite hittable thanks to his lack of command. He’s often so far behind in the count that he’s laying one in there. When he doesn’t do that, he’s often missing his target and leaving the ball over the middle anyway. His slider and curveball are both excellent, and he’s going to get his fair share of strikeouts no matter what, but he feels like a constant implosion risk. Guys like him go from effective to can’t-buy-a-strike faster than you’d think sometimes. Read the rest of this entry »

The Marlins, who acquired some thump earlier on Deadline Day in the form of Jake Burger, went out and acquired some more right after the bell rang, picking up Josh Bell in exchange for Jean Segura and prospect Kahlil Watson. Nearly simultaneously, news broke that the Marlins were trading Garrett Cooper and pitching prospect Sean Reynolds to the Padres for left-hander Ryan Weathers. (The Marlins are also paying down Cooper’s salary to the league minimum.)

Burger’s addition made Segura surplus to requirements; if the Marlins had seen enough of him, it made sense to trade him to the only team that loves slap hitters more than they do. But the Guardians are releasing Segura and in the process eating the remainder of his salary for 2023 and ’24 ($8.5 million), plus a $2 million buyout for ’25. In exchange, they pick up a prospect and jettison Bell’s even more expensive salary for next year. Here, I made a handy chart:

I explored the Marlins’ reasons for jettisoning Segura in the Burger piece, but it’s pretty easy reasoning to follow: They want to make the playoffs, and Segura is hitting .219/.277/.279.

The swap of first basemen is the most interesting piece of this trade for me. Both Cooper and Bell had highly decorated 2022 campaigns — the former made the All-Star team, and the latter won a Silver Slugger — but have disappointed in ’23. On the surface, this looks like the Marlins are swapping one moderately disappointing first baseman/DH for another more expensive one.

So why would the Marlins do this? I can think of a few reasons. First, Bell is a switch-hitter, and Cooper is a righty with similar weaknesses to Burger — namely, lots of strikeouts and relatively few walks. And Bell has attributes that make him more attractive than Cooper as a bounce-back candidate. He walks more, he strikes out less, he’s two years younger, and he has superior raw power, even if accessing it in games has always been an uncertain proposition.

Then there’s the contract. Cooper makes $3.9 million this year and is a pending free agent. Bell is in the first season of a two-year deal that pays him $16.5 million annually. If the Marlins consider Segura a sunk cost — i.e., if they were going to release him anyway — what they’ve done is essentially bought a one-year, $6 million flyer on Bell as a bounce-back candidate for 2024, assuming he doesn’t opt out. That strikes me as a pretty reasonable gamble.

From the Padres’ perspective, why would they want Cooper? First of all, they are only giving up Weathers. Yes, he is just 23, is a former top-10 pick, and is under team control until 2027. But he made his major league debut in the 2020 playoffs and has been given numerous opportunities to claim a spot on San Diego’s pitching staff over the three seasons that followed, and he simply has not done so. Right now, over 143 big league innings, he has a 5.73 ERA, a 5.54 FIP, and a K% of just 16.8. Maybe the potential that inspired the Padres to draft him is still in there, but if it is, they would’ve been able to access it by now if that were within their capability.

The Marlins, meanwhile, have made young change-of-scenery lefthanders into their side hustle over the past couple years, with Jesús Luzardo and A.J. Puk among their current examples. They’d have reason to be optimistic that they can right whatever is wrong with Weathers. But for the Padres? Now feels like a good time to let him go.

In exchange, San Diego gets a prospect, Reynolds (more on him later), plus Cooper. Earlier, I wrote about the Padres’ acquisition of Ji Man Choi, a player who was built to form the left-handed side of a platoon at either first base or DH. At the time, the most logical platoon partner for him seemed to be whichever of the team’s two catchers wasn’t wearing the tools of ignorance on that particular evening. Cooper is well-suited to that role. And with the Marlins kicking in a little over $1 million to even out the salaries, the Padres get to try him out basically for free.

As for Reynolds, he’s a 25-year-old conversion project currently at Triple-A. The 6-foot-8-inch righty was once a first baseman himself and has got mid-90s velocity with good feel for both a breaking ball and a changeup. The no. 22 prospect in Miami’s system before the trade, he’s hardly a headliner, but he’s close to the majors now and could be a useful big league reliever under the right circumstances. That, plus a bat the Padres could use, is a suitable return for a pitcher they can’t use.

Now for Cleveland. A cynical reading of this trade says the Guardians are dumping a disappointing contract for a moderately less expensive one. Two years at $16.5 million per isn’t a backbreaker for most ownership groups, but it is for the Dolans. They save about $9 million, all-in, by swapping Bell for the right to release Segura. Raise a banner.

But Watson is an interesting prospect. The no. 16 overall pick as a North Carolina high schooler in 2021, he has explosive tools and was the no. 49 global prospect on the 2022 preseason top 100. Switch-hitting middle infielders who can get on base don’t come along every day. Since then, unfortunately, he has been suspended by the Marlins for using his bat to pantomime shooting an umpire and failed to hold his own against older competition in the Midwest League. As is the case with so many talented high school position players, Watson still needs to prove he can hit professional pitching. At the time of the trade, he was the no. 8 prospect on our Marlins list, with a FV of 45.

For taking on the less useful and slightly expensive end of a bilateral salary dump, Cleveland could’ve done worse. The modal outcome for Watson is probably that he doesn’t have a meaningful big league career, so in that respect acquiring him is a risk. But if he even comes close to figuring things out and reaching his potential, he’ll be the best player in the trade, unless Bell gets first-half-of-2022 hot again. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot going on here.

If I were to criticize this trade from Cleveland’s perspective, it would be on the grounds that the Guardians got cheaper and worse while they were a game out of a playoff spot. Yes, they’re under .500 and half their rotation (the good half, in fact) is on the IL, but they are just as much in the playoff race than the Padres are. And as disappointing as Bell has been so far this year, if the Guardians had a better internal replacement, they would’ve used him already. That’s disappointing. The rebuttal to that argument is that Bell has been so close to replacement level that losing him doesn’t hurt that much, and Watson and that $9 million in savings could be meaningful down the road. So it goes.

The Marlins have a decent shot at getting better now, the Guardians might get better in the long term, and the Padres stay about the same but with a player pool that better suits their immediate needs. Plus everyone’s accountants get some extra work. Everyone has the opportunity to win.

When trades occur that aren’t quite big enough to merit their own post, we sometimes compile our analysis into a compendium like this, where we touch on a number of transactions at one time. In this dispatch, I’ll cover the Rays’ trades for upper-level depth (pitchers Manuel Rodríguez and Adrian Sampson from the Cubs, and catcher Alex Jackson from the Brewers), as well as the Mariners/Orioles swap of Logan Rinehart and Eduard Bazardo.

The Rays acquired Adrian Sampson, Manuel Rodríguez, and $220,000 of international free agent bonus pool space from the Cubs for minor league pitcher Josh Roberson. Sampson, 31, was originally the Pirates’ 2012 fifth round pick. He made the big leagues with the Mariners in 2016 and then began to hop around the fringes of various rosters, which is part of what led to his 2020 jaunt to the KBO before a return to MLB with the Cubs. He made 19 starts for the Cubbies in 2022 as a long-term injury replacement, but he has missed most of 2023 due to a knee surgery from which he only recently returned. Sampson has been sitting 90-91 mph during each of his last two minor league starts. He does not occupy a 40-man roster spot and should be considered injury replacement depth for the Rays. Read the rest of this entry »

While some of the biggest names available did not find new homes on Tuesday, a whole lot of relievers are wearing new duds. So let’s get down to business.

The New York Yankees acquired pitcher Keynan Middleton for pitcher Juan Carela

With all the relief trades made by the White Sox, Middleton must have felt a bit like the last kid taken in gym class this weekend. This has been the year he’s put it all together, thanks to a much-improved changeup that has become his money pitch, resulting in hitters no longer simply waiting around to crush his fairly ordinary fastball. He’s a free agent after the season and certainly not meriting a qualifying offer, so the Sox were right to get what they could.

I’m mostly confused about this from the Yankees’ standpoint. He does upgrade the bullpen, which ranks below average in our depth charts for the first time I can recall. But unless they really like him and hope to lock him up to a contract before he hits free agency, I’m not sure what the Bombers get out of tinkering with their bullpen a little when the far more pressing problems in the lineup and rotation went unaddressed. As for Carela, he’s been solid in High-A ball this year, but he really ought to be as a repeater. Just how much of a lottery ticket he is won’t be better known until we see if he can continue his improvement against a better quality of hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

There are 2,841 players who have received at least 2,000 major-league plate appearances in baseball history. Only 13 of them — including two Hall-of-Fame pitchers, Cy Young and Warren Spahn — have had a lower wRC+ than Austin Hedges. This year, he’s turned in one of his worst lines yet, a .180/.237/.230 slash good for a 28 wRC+. So what do the first-place Rangers want with him?

There are 473 players have appeared at catcher since the advent of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2003. Only four — Yadier Molina, Russell Martin, Buster Posey, and Jeff Mathis — have a higher DRS than Hedges. This year, he’s tied for fifth among backstops in DRS and tops in our framing runs metric.

Thus far, the Rangers have the majors’ second-best offense by wRC+ with a 120 mark. Their defense hasn’t been shabby — they’re tied for fifth in DRS — but I suppose it’s more in need of an upgrade than their offense. Then again, it’s not as if the Rangers had much of a choice: aside from Alex Jackson and Korey Lee, who have all of 211 major league plate appearances between them, no other backstops were traded this deadline. And Texas needs a known commodity to serve as depth behind the plate right now; incumbent Jonah Heim was placed on the IL Friday, destabilizing the position. Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies and Tigers are at it again. After a five-player swap back in January, Dave Dombrowski is making another trade with his former club. With the top five teams in the NL wild card race currently separated by a grand total of one game in the loss column, the Phillies, currently in command of the second wild card spot by a whopping half a game, decided to grab a reinforcement for the rotation and bullpen, trading prospect Hao-Yu Lee to the Tigers in exchange for right-hander Michael Lorenzen. They also designated veteran utility man Josh Harrison for assignment to make room for Lorenzen on the 40-man roster. And at least one Phillies player is very excited about this trade:

Brandon Marsh, who played with Michael Lorenzen in 2022 with the Angels, says he is a “great pitcher, an incredible teammate, and has big biceps.”

“He’s gonna be a great fit here. I’m super excited to see him again and give him a hug. I hope he picks me up. He’s strong.”

— Alex Coffey (@byalexcoffey) August 1, 2023

The 31-year-old Lorenzen, who will be a free agent this winter, is in the midst of his best season since 2020, running a 3.58 ERA and a 3.88 FIP. That improvement has largely come via limiting walks: after averaging a 9.9% walk rate from 2017 to ’19, he’s at 6.5% this season. He’s done that not by increasing his chase rate, but simply by throwing more pitches in the zone, with his zone rate rising from 39.8% in 2022 to 45.7% this year. Lorenzen throws four pitches more than 10% of the time — four-seamer, slider, changeup, and sinker — and is throwing all of them in the zone more often this season than last. In doing so, he traded some whiffs for some called strikes, a swap that has so far paid off. He’s also improved dramatically against lefties, with a .279 wOBA against them this year, down from a career mark of .323.

There’s a troubling trend worth noting, though. Lorenzen’s 4.80 DRA is higher than his 2022 mark of 4.32. His average exit velocity and barrel rate are at career highs, and while his .323 wOBAcon is right in line with last year’s .329 mark, his .362 xwOBAcon is the highest since his rookie season in 2015. Lorenzen might be getting a little lucky on balls in play or getting a little extra help from his defense. Both of those tricks will be harder to pull off at Citizens Bank Park than they were at Comerica Park. Still, it might help your wOBAcon just a bit when the center fielder is willing to run through a brick wall for you. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s something strange going on in the desert. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best stories in baseball this year, led by Corbin Carroll and a motley crew of veterans and rookies. An early season tear sat them atop the NL West, and we gave them an 80% chance of making the playoffs on July 1. Whoops – they’ve gone 8-16 since then, the worst record in the NL, and now they’re scrambling to make the playoffs. Time to make some trades!

Tommy Pham fits perfectly with what Arizona is going for. After a desultory three-year stretch from 2020-22 where he posted a 94 wRC+, he’s been one of the lone bright spots for the Mets this year. He’s hitting .268/.348/.472, and his quality of contact has been even better than that; he has a shiny .390 xwOBA and is smashing balls left and right. His plate discipline, always a strength, has never been better. He’s posted as much WAR this year as in those three previous ones.

The Diamondbacks could use that kind of production. They’ve relied on four regular outfielders this season, and only Carroll has been good. Jake McCarthy has an 85 wRC+ and the underlying stats to match. Alek Thomas checks in at a 79 wRC+. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the best of the group, but that’s faint praise; he’s hitting .249/.296/.448 with a 98 wRC+ himself. Murderer’s row, this is not. Read the rest of this entry »