In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it. Read the rest of this entry »

The full midseason run of the ZiPS projections have been completed, and while the standings updates are always a lot of fun, they tend to move in a similar direction to our FanGraphs standings, so they’re usually not the most shocking. What I find the most interesting are the player projections — not even the numbers for the rest of the season (the in-season model is simpler, but improvements in the full model are naturally going to be incremental), but the ones that look toward 2024 and beyond.

After looking at the hitter gainers and decliners and then the pitcher gainers, we’re wrapping this up with the list of the pitchers with the largest declines in projected 2024 WAR since my original projections to dig a little into what changed for each player. Sometimes it’s performance, sometimes it’s health, sometimes it’s a change in position. Let’s jump straight into the names, since I assume everyone reading this knows that ZiPS isn’t a cheeseburger or a hoodie.

One note: For this list, I looked only at the pitchers who have played in the majors whose sole decline isn’t because of injuries; otherwise, the list would simply be “dudes having Tommy John surgery” and fringe Double-A prospects who hit the wall suddenly. I doubt you need any help from a projection system to know why Carlos Rodón’s projection is worse now. Read the rest of this entry »

Brandon Williamson is a small-town kid looking to make a mark in Cincinnati. Selected by Seattle in the second round of the 2019 draft out of Texas Christian University, the 25-year-old southpaw from Welcome, Minnesota (population: 701) was acquired by the Reds from the Mariners as part a six-player trade prior to last season. Since making his MLB debut two months ago, he has a 4.96 ERA and a 5.51 FIP over 11 outings comprising 52.2 innings.

His potential exceeds his modest performance to date. No. 9 on our preseason Reds Top Prospects list with a 45 FV, Williamson has, in the words of Eric Longenhagen, “a good shot to pitch toward the back of a contender’s rotation.” The velocity is nothing to write home about — his heater is averaging a pedestrian 92.5 mph — but as our lead prospect analyst also noted, “His ability to mix [five] offerings in an unpredictable fashion still excites scouts.”

Williamson discussed his arsenal and approach when the Reds visited Boston at the end of May.

———

David Laurila: Based on your experience, how do the Mariners and Reds compare in terms of pitching development?

Brandon Williamson: “At the end of the day, it’s still baseball. They’re both trying to get you to throw good pitches over the plate as much as possible. Both value strikeouts, but that’s unanimous around the game. There are maybe a few differences. The Mariners maybe target more shape. I guess that’s probably the biggest difference, targeting more shapes.”

Laurila: There’s less focus on that with Cincinnati?

Williamson: “I wouldn’t necessarily say less, it’s more how they go about it. Seattle is very numbers and TrackMan-driven. Not that here isn’t. I guess you could say that here it’s more of a pitch-use, mechanical way. It’s more of a mix.”

Laurila: With mechanics in mind, I’ve read that command has been an issue for you. Is that still a concern?

Williamson: “It hasn’t been all along. Last year… before that, I wasn’t a guy who walked a bunch of people. I don’t feel like it’s terrible. Is it an issue? You could say that, but it’s not like, ‘Oh my gosh, you can’t pitch.’ It’s more a matter of ‘How can I consistently use my stuff in the zone?’ It’s not that I’m wild, I just need to effectively throw all of my pitches in the zone and be able to repeat that.” Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.

For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2024-2028, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2028 (if the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2022 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.

As you might imagine, we’re well into the good stuff. All of these players are hugely valuable, and few are likely to actually get traded. That doesn’t mean this is purely theoretical, but it’s something approaching that. Like most lists, ordinal rankings can be deceiving; there isn’t an equal value gap separating every spot on the list. I’ve tried to mention where there are large gaps, but don’t read too much into someone being ninth instead of fifth. There just isn’t much difference between those two spots, and both players are a lot more valuable than the guy ranked 15th.

If you have any questions about the rankings, I’ll be chatting today at 10 AM ET.

Now, let’s get to the final batch of players. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s strategies for coping with record heat in Phoenix, revisit an earlier conversation about whether the pitch clock has boosted MLB attendance (and reminisce about when the cause of increased game times was still considered unclear), celebrate their recent wish about camera angles on broadcasts coming true, discuss the resurgences of Jason Heyward and Cody Bellinger, marvel at Mickey Moniak’s continued resistance to regression and the Orioles overtaking the Rays in the AL East, use Jarred Kelenic’s fractured foot to advocate for padded dugout surfaces, and try to determine whether Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera had the more surprising steep decline. Then (1:11:46) they answer listener emails about burnishing Shohei Ohtani’s legacy (and his likely career path), letting All-Star starters return to the game after being removed, Elly De La Cruz if he had to attempt steals, and the distance to bullpens, plus a Future Blast (1:42:20) from 2035 and a postscript on old-timer home run derbies.

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to info on Phoenix heat
Link to Russell on attendance
Link to earlier attendance convo
Link to Grant on game times
Link to attendance stats
Link to Ben on predictable times
Link to info on ticket-buyer age
Link to Rangers relay broadcast
Link to earlier episode on broadcasts
Link to Dodgers preview episode
Link to article on Heyward’s swing
Link to FG post about Bellinger
Link to Jay Jaffe on Moniak
Link to earlier Moniak convo
Link to info on Moniak’s name
Link to Moniak’s rolling zone rate
Link to ESPN RPI
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Kelenic fracture article
Link to Cabrera’s hit
Link to FG post on Anderson
Link to Sam on Ruth and Ohtani
Link to Elly’s throw
Link to Elly throwing stats
Link to Elly’s earlier record throw
Link to Vroom Vroom Guy wiki
Link to info on Angels hammer
Link to Harper homer article
Link to Emma on bullpens/brawls
Link to EW emails database
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Draper/Roberts hockey fight
Link to Twins charity derby info
Link to ex-Twins pickup hockey article
Link to 2003 derby article

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Tyler Rogers, easily the owner of the Statcast Era’s lowest vertical release point, throws a rising slider that’s rising even more this season. The positioning of his forearm at release means that a traditional curveball grip puts his thumb on top of the ball and the rest of his fingers underneath; as the ball rolls off of his hand, it creates backspin in addition to the sidespin more typical of a slider:

Tyler Rogers, 72mph Rising Slider. ? pic.twitter.com/1pRK3ybSaT

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 28, 2023

As you can imagine, the traditional fastball grip places his index and middle finger pointing towards five o’clock or 5:30 rather than a more typical two or three o’clock from a three-quarters arm slot. This results in arm-side sidespin, but also some extra drop, such that his fastball sinks more than his slider:

The Tyler Rogers four-seam fastball has more drop than the average MLB curveball. ? pic.twitter.com/dZIjz9DDI1

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 7, 2023

Needless to say, I’ve found these two offerings to be among the most unique pitches in the majors this season by a couple of slightly different methods. As a result, the Giants were a confounding data point when I used my team-wide pitch-uniqueness model to estimate which pitching staffs roll out the widest array of “looks.” Read the rest of this entry »

Tim Anderson’s game has always been a high-wire act. He never walks, he chases constantly, he’s completely BABIP-dependent and allergic to hitting the ball in the air, and his defense at shortstop has never quite been great enough to cover for a down year at the plate. Over the last four seasons, as projection systems crunched the underlying numbers and predicted that he’d plummet to the earth, Anderson refused to look down, putting up a 123 wRC+ and 13.6 WAR. Factoring in the time he lost to injuries and a global pandemic, that’s a 4.1-win pace per 500 PAs, or a 5.9-win pace per 162 games. Despite all the time he missed, Anderson was the 27th-most valuable position player in baseball over that span; only one of the 26 players ahead of him appeared in fewer games.

Anderson’s ability to shoot singles into right field and spray line drives across the entire diamond won him a batting title and a Silver Slugger, and earned him berths in the World Baseball Classic and two All-Star Games. It also made him fun to watch, a throwback who put the ball in play and used his legs, but also had the pop to blow a game wide open.

This season, the wire has snapped. The homerless Anderson has been worth -0.9 WAR, and his 49 wRC+ is the worst among all qualified players. After running a .347 BABIP last year, right at his career average, Anderson’s BABIP is .294. Maybe gravity was always going to kick in this fast when Anderson’s Wile E. Coyote routine stopped working, but it feels awfully sudden for a player who put up a 110 wRC+ just last year:

Read the rest of this entry »

A double-whammy of injuries and underperformance has hampered the Angels in their bid to make the playoffs before Shohei Ohtani hits free agency, but one bright spot has been the play of Mickey Moniak. The former number one pick of the 2016 draft looked like a bust when the Phillies included him as one of two outfielders in last year’s deadline acquisition of Noah Syndergaard, and his late-season cup of coffee in Anaheim didn’t exactly dispel that notion. But since his promotion in mid-May, he’s been one of the majors’ most productive hitters, producing a 170 wRC+ in 165 plate appearances.

Moniak sent the struggling Yankees reeling with a big night on Tuesday in Anaheim. In the first inning, he clubbed a two-run homer off Domingo Germán, and while he struck out in the third with the bases loaded, he followed Ohtani’s RBI triple with an RBI single in the fifth to cap the scoring at 5–1. He also added a single of Albert Abreu in the eighth, giving him three three-hit games in the first five of the second half and extending his hitting streak to 10 games. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/e86a78a7-713d-4d6b-8a93-4fad86923866

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Martinez is back to pretty much where his projection was – ZiPS was already aggressive with him

12:03

Dan Szymborski: His projection really fell off in the earl going, but he’s been much better last couple months

12:06

Dan Szymborski: Outside of the big names, it gets unimpressive quickly!

Read the rest of this entry »