RosterResource Chat – 12/6/24

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December 6, 2024

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JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Bobby Abreu

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December 6, 2024
Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports
2025 BBWAA Ballot

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2020 election, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Bobby Abreu could do just about everything. A five-tool player with dazzling speed, a sweet left-handed stroke, and enough power to win a Home Run Derby, he was also one of the game’s most patient, disciplined hitters, able to wear down a pitcher and unafraid to hit with two strikes. While routinely reaching the traditional seasonal plateaus that tend to get noticed — a .300 batting average (six times), 20 homers (nine times), 30 steals (six times), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight times apiece) — he was nonetheless a stathead favorite for his ability to take a walk (100 or more eight years in a row) and his high on-base percentages (.400 or better eight times). And he was durable, playing 151 games or more in 13 straight seasons. “To me, Bobby’s Tony Gwynn with power,” said Phillies hitting coach Hal McRae in 1999.

“Bobby was way ahead of his time [with] regards to working pitchers,” said his former manager Larry Bowa when presenting him for induction into the Phillies Wall of Fame in 2019. “In an era when guys were swinging for the fences, Bobby never strayed from his game. Because of his speed, a walk would turn into a double. He was cool under pressure, and always in control of his at-bats. He was the best combination of power, speed, and patience at the plate.” Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/6/24

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December 6, 2024
12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. COVID wrecked your boy’s thanksgiving but I’m good to go to winter meetings. My cat came home with dilated pupils last night and the other one couldn’t stop smelling him. I have no other life updates.
12:14
Mortons: Quick scouting report on Cobb Hightower? Do you think he’s a top 5 Padres prospect?
12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Hightower was an $850k or so HS signee from North Carolina. Good hitting hands, can really time and swuare a fasball, on time enough to pull, athletic build, didn’t get a thorough look at him playing defense because he wasn’t on the showcase circuit much and I didn’t see SD instructs….
12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Top 5? Maybe. I’d definitely take Salas, De Vries, Mayfield, Cruz ahead of him but I can’t think of anyone off the very top of my head. Pena is good, I’d probably take him, too.
12:17
Kate: Assuming he comes back looking the same post-surgery, what are the odds Farmelo vaults up the Top 100 into elite territory?
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Uhh I’d guess of any of the guys like him and Alfredo Duno where the tools are so nutty bu there’s risk for whatever reason that the “hit it big” rate is like 25%. For every Elly or Oneil or Walcott I feel like there are three Bleises.

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A Terrible Idea, for a Good Reason

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December 6, 2024
Brad Penner-Imagn Images

America emerged from its tryptophanic slumber this week to find that the world was in danger of changing. Six weeks ago, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred went on The Varsity podcast, hosted by veteran reporter John Ourand, and as an oh-by-the-way mentioned an idea that had been mooted at a recent owners’ meeting: the Golden At-Bat.

I don’t know how married Manfred and the MLB bigwigs are to that branding, because to me it sounds like a fast food giveaway. Whatever you call it, the idea is simple enough: Once a game, a manager would be able to override the established lineup and bat a player out of order. Presumably a star in a key moment. Bottom of the ninth, runner on second, down by one run, bottom of the order coming up — sit down, Shay Whitcomb, we’re bringing Yordan Alvarez back for another spin.

This idea floated out there for more than a month, until this past Monday, when Jayson Stark published an article on the idea at The Athletic. Like it or hate it, the Golden At-Bat became the biggest story of the week, even as the free agent market kept ticking over. Read the rest of this entry »


2025 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles

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December 6, 2024

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

Anthony Santander was a lot of fun in 2024. He’s currently a free agent, but the projections suggest that when we talk 2025 and beyond, he’s arguably less impactful to the Orioles than he would be to practically every other team in the majors. That’s because the Orioles have plenty of depth in corner outfield; they should get a full season of Heston Kjerstad in right field and Colton Cowser in left, and it’s possible that Coby Mayo could get some corner outfield reps as well. You can’t expect the O’s to match Santander’s home run count, but they have enough solid players to overcome his potential departure. ZiPS has a surprisingly optimistic view of Daz Cameron as a reserve outfielder, despite his weak showing with the A’s last season. The Orioles must see something there as well, considering they brought him back to the organization after less than a year away; he spent all of 2023 with Triple-A Norfolk.

There’s been a bit of panic among some O’s fans – at least mild panic if that’s not a misnomer – about Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday, but it’s far too soon to start worrying that much. Rutschman’s not at an age where decline is likely, and even with a slightly diminished projection, he still looks to be a big plus in the lineup. Holliday struggled in the majors, especially during his initial stint, but this is a player who just turned 21 on Wednesday. This is likely still a story of awesomeness delayed rather than cancelled.

The offense is very solid just about everywhere. Gunnar Henderson is the best player on the team and the new face of the franchise. He was in the MVP conversation early, and even though Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., and Juan Soto pulled ahead of him, Henderson was still an eight-win player in 2024. If this lineup has a weakness, it’s at 1B and/or DH; both positions still project as adequate, but they’re just not very exciting. I’m admittedly unusure exactly what effect the new dimensions in left field will have on this offense. So, question marks!

There’s probably not much the Orioles really have to do here. It wouldn’t be a problem for them to add a bat on the easy side of the defensive spectrum, but it’s not absolutely crucial.

I’ve already mentioned Mayo, but ZiPS also thinks Samuel Basallo is very close to being big league quality right now, and it gives strong long-term projections for Enrique Bradfield Jr., who is a possible eventual successor to Cedric Mullins in center field. ZiPS is also surprisingly excited about third-round pick Austin Overn, but the long-term error bars are massive because ZiPS uses college translations for players with a lack of professional experience.

Pitchers

The Orioles have most of a solid rotation assembled, which is a good thing. The problem is, of course, that the part missing is the hardest part to find, that guy at the top who you can count on to throw 180 innings and be somewhere in the Cy Young discussion. Perhaps Grayson Rodriguez or someone will take that big step forward and become that guy, but right now, the O’s don’t have anybody to replace free agent Corbin Burnes if they do not re-sign him. Given that this is the difference between a high-80s-win team and a low-90s win team in the projections, this ought to be a crucial issue to address, and it’s going to need investment. This is arguably the moment where you see just how serious new ownership is about not squeezing pennies until they scream. Right now, the starting rotation looks a bit like when you painstakingly restore a cool early-70s muscle car, turn it on, and then realize it’s not working because you totally forget that it needs an engine.

But aside from the missing ace, things look pretty solid. A full season of Zach Eflin is a good thing and Kyle Bradish will eventually return from Tommy John surgery. Rodriguez still has big upside, and ZiPS just can’t quite figure out Dean Kremer. Trevor Rogers certainly isn’t a lost cause yet, and Chayce McDermott received one of the larger one-year boosts from 2024 to his 2025 projection.

Getting Félix Bautista back is a pretty big deal, even if you can’t just assume he’ll be as good as he was before the injury. ZiPS projects the bullpen as kind of the opposite of the rotation; there’s some sizzle at the top with the front four or five guys, but really, Baltimore is in need of some back-end depth. ZiPS just isn’t that interested in the Bryan Baker/Colin Selby/Thaddeus Ward segment of the bullpen, should it come to that in 2025. I thought bringing in Craig Kimbrel was one of the worst ideas the O’s have had in the last few years. It’s not that I think they have a perfect bullpen; I’d just rather Baltimore look at guys based on their likely futures rather than their pasts.

As I hinted above, the Orioles right now project in ZiPS to win somewhere between 85 and 90 games, depending on how some of the playing time assumptions shake out. That’s basically the 2024 squad without Burnes and the lesser impact of losing Santander. So… not surprising? The Orioles are finally at a place where you don’t want surprises, so this is a pivotal offseason for them. Until the Orioles actually start to sign some of their young stars to extensions, I’m not going to lose my uneasy feeling about the mid-to-long-term future of this franchise.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Gunnar Henderson L 24 SS 660 576 107 158 29 7 28 97 73 151 16 4
Adley Rutschman B 27 C 579 507 69 132 29 1 17 70 64 91 2 0
Jordan Westburg R 26 3B 521 476 69 122 27 4 17 71 35 120 7 2
Colton Cowser L 25 LF 559 488 81 123 24 2 19 74 58 164 8 3
Jackson Holliday L 21 2B 591 507 101 117 28 2 15 68 77 155 9 1
Cedric Mullins L 30 CF 532 479 65 115 23 3 16 64 43 105 26 6
Anthony Santander B 30 RF 631 566 79 136 29 1 31 95 53 128 2 1
Coby Mayo R 23 3B 519 465 65 111 26 2 19 73 44 146 3 3
Heston Kjerstad L 26 RF 454 404 60 106 18 3 15 65 34 114 2 1
Enrique Bradfield Jr. L 23 CF 462 409 71 100 14 3 5 42 36 84 38 9
Daz Cameron R 28 CF 404 362 52 87 19 2 10 47 33 105 12 3
Jorge Mateo R 30 2B 350 323 47 75 18 4 7 36 18 86 23 4
Ramón Urías R 31 3B 363 328 42 83 15 2 10 43 27 80 1 1
Ryan O’Hearn L 31 DH 433 393 55 105 17 2 16 60 34 80 3 1
Samuel Basallo L 20 C 545 503 62 126 24 2 15 65 37 127 6 3
Forrest Wall L 29 CF 399 356 51 88 13 3 4 38 34 111 25 7
Livan Soto L 25 SS 477 424 47 102 16 2 5 44 43 106 4 3
Emmanuel Rivera R 29 3B 369 332 43 81 15 2 9 42 29 80 2 0
Nick Maton L 28 SS 393 343 44 79 16 2 11 46 41 96 2 1
Ryan Mountcastle R 28 1B 526 483 59 124 25 1 18 69 34 125 3 1
Creed Willems L 22 C 426 388 36 80 16 1 14 52 27 109 1 1
Eloy Jiménez R 28 DH 413 382 39 101 17 0 13 50 27 83 2 0
Jud Fabian R 24 CF 530 473 51 93 18 1 14 56 45 192 11 5
J.D. Davis R 32 3B 370 331 35 76 15 1 10 37 32 121 0 0
Hudson Haskin R 26 LF 398 344 45 75 13 2 5 45 33 120 12 4
Maverick Handley R 27 C 314 273 30 54 9 1 3 29 30 83 4 2
Terrin Vavra L 28 2B 277 244 34 58 9 2 3 28 25 72 2 2
Tavian Josenberger B 23 2B 363 314 49 65 11 3 6 32 34 71 23 4
David Bañuelos R 28 C 155 140 17 29 5 1 4 17 12 56 1 0
Garrett Cooper R 34 1B 340 306 29 75 15 1 9 41 26 96 0 0
René Pinto R 28 C 312 292 32 64 13 0 11 40 15 108 0 0
Austin Overn L 22 CF 98 86 13 20 4 2 1 10 10 31 7 4
Daniel Johnson L 29 CF 461 425 51 98 16 2 14 57 28 130 10 6
James McCann R 35 C 250 230 25 53 10 0 6 27 14 66 2 0
Jean Segura R 35 2B 335 307 34 76 10 1 4 32 21 55 8 4
Niko Goodrum B 33 SS 289 254 32 58 8 2 5 27 31 88 6 2
Dylan Beavers L 23 RF 527 472 56 108 21 4 9 53 46 138 16 3
Jeremiah Jackson R 25 SS 469 438 45 92 18 1 14 55 24 134 8 3
Douglas Hodo III R 24 LF 390 341 43 70 14 2 5 37 41 131 20 4
Max Wagner R 23 3B 341 308 36 63 10 3 5 32 26 111 8 2
Ethan Anderson B 21 C 87 80 8 20 3 2 1 9 6 19 3 1
Reed Trimble B 25 RF 230 207 32 44 10 1 3 21 20 54 12 0
Frederick Bencosme L 22 SS 522 475 53 105 16 3 4 42 37 94 16 4
Silas Ardoin R 24 C 397 355 25 68 11 0 3 30 35 131 2 2
Blake Hunt R 26 C 291 269 29 56 12 1 6 31 15 79 1 0
Errol Robinson R 30 SS 223 202 21 41 6 0 1 15 19 71 7 3
Shayne Fontana L 28 1B 316 281 35 62 9 2 4 32 25 80 8 3
Griff O’Ferrall R 22 SS 95 85 7 19 2 0 0 7 7 16 1 3
Collin Burns L 25 2B 352 323 32 66 10 2 3 29 19 86 8 3
Jake Cunningham R 22 LF 350 318 34 63 9 2 4 28 25 123 13 4
Maxwell Costes R 25 1B 222 198 18 40 6 0 5 24 15 45 1 1
Aron Estrada B 20 2B 484 446 53 102 16 4 7 51 27 92 17 8
Randy Florentino L 24 C 182 170 16 36 6 1 2 15 9 45 1 1
Jalen Vasquez L 23 SS 347 310 34 59 12 3 3 27 34 108 15 5
Elio Prado R 23 RF 360 325 33 64 10 2 5 33 27 86 8 5
Donta’ Williams L 26 CF 314 275 32 52 11 1 2 25 32 92 10 6
Alfredo Velásquez R 20 SS 230 219 24 45 7 1 0 15 7 47 8 2
Carter Young B 24 SS 445 416 35 86 16 3 4 34 26 137 8 4
Cristian Benavides R 20 LF 110 102 12 17 2 0 1 8 6 45 2 1
Luis Valdez B 25 2B 329 305 46 66 9 3 1 24 19 100 27 6
TT Bowens R 27 1B 403 372 39 77 16 1 9 42 25 134 3 1
Angel Tejada R 21 2B 313 298 31 66 14 1 4 31 7 77 13 5
Adam Retzbach R 24 C 289 255 24 40 7 3 5 24 26 128 1 1
Ryan Higgins R 25 3B 317 285 27 53 11 1 5 31 17 120 4 3
Thomas Sosa L 20 RF 378 349 45 71 13 2 4 32 26 125 12 6
John Rhodes R 24 LF 429 395 34 77 15 2 6 40 28 117 4 1
Connor Pavolony R 25 DH 239 212 16 34 7 1 2 17 21 86 1 0
Leandro Arias B 20 SS 371 332 28 66 13 1 4 33 26 79 4 5
Aneudis Mordán R 21 C 427 393 31 75 13 1 10 43 30 139 2 5
Isaac De León R 23 3B 374 332 32 60 13 1 3 31 31 142 5 2
Anthony Servideo L 26 SS 409 365 42 60 10 1 4 28 38 159 7 2
Anderson De Los Santos R 21 3B 444 406 37 75 12 2 7 40 31 150 6 8
Noelberth Romero R 23 2B 395 371 32 69 10 1 6 33 17 107 6 4

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC
Gunnar Henderson 660 .274 .359 .494 143 .220 .327 -4 5.9 .366 144 107
Adley Rutschman 579 .260 .344 .422 120 .162 .288 6 4.6 .333 117 74
Jordan Westburg 521 .257 .317 .437 115 .181 .310 6 3.3 .327 118 68
Colton Cowser 559 .252 .340 .426 120 .174 .341 7 3.1 .334 121 74
Jackson Holliday 591 .231 .335 .383 107 .152 .303 1 2.9 .318 113 67
Cedric Mullins 532 .240 .308 .401 102 .161 .277 3 2.5 .308 102 67
Anthony Santander 631 .240 .311 .459 118 .219 .258 -2 2.2 .330 115 81
Coby Mayo 519 .239 .312 .425 110 .187 .306 0 2.2 .319 116 64
Heston Kjerstad 454 .262 .335 .433 119 .171 .331 2 2.0 .333 118 59
Enrique Bradfield Jr. 462 .245 .313 .330 86 .086 .297 4 1.6 .287 90 54
Daz Cameron 404 .240 .310 .387 99 .146 .312 1 1.6 .305 94 47
Jorge Mateo 350 .232 .277 .378 86 .145 .296 7 1.6 .284 86 40
Ramón Urías 363 .253 .320 .402 107 .149 .307 1 1.6 .316 102 43
Ryan O’Hearn 433 .267 .328 .443 120 .176 .300 0 1.6 .332 115 58
Samuel Basallo 545 .250 .303 .395 100 .145 .307 -8 1.5 .304 103 63
Forrest Wall 399 .247 .320 .334 89 .087 .348 2 1.4 .293 87 46
Livan Soto 477 .240 .314 .323 84 .082 .309 2 1.3 .285 85 45
Emmanuel Rivera 369 .244 .309 .383 98 .139 .297 1 1.2 .303 95 40
Nick Maton 393 .230 .319 .385 102 .155 .288 -6 1.1 .309 101 43
Ryan Mountcastle 526 .256 .304 .424 107 .168 .311 0 1.0 .313 105 63
Creed Willems 426 .206 .266 .361 79 .155 .249 3 1.0 .273 84 38
Eloy Jiménez 413 .264 .315 .411 107 .147 .308 0 0.9 .315 105 50
Jud Fabian 530 .197 .271 .328 72 .131 .296 8 0.8 .266 78 46
J.D. Davis 370 .230 .305 .372 94 .142 .331 -2 0.8 .299 89 38
Hudson Haskin 398 .218 .315 .311 82 .093 .319 6 0.7 .285 84 38
Maverick Handley 314 .198 .294 .271 65 .073 .272 3 0.5 .261 66 23
Terrin Vavra 277 .237 .317 .327 87 .090 .325 -1 0.5 .290 85 27
Tavian Josenberger 363 .207 .287 .319 75 .111 .249 -1 0.4 .271 81 35
David Bañuelos 155 .208 .279 .344 79 .136 .314 1 0.4 .276 77 14
Garrett Cooper 340 .245 .312 .388 101 .144 .328 0 0.4 .307 95 37
René Pinto 312 .219 .263 .377 82 .158 .307 -2 0.4 .278 80 29
Austin Overn 98 .233 .316 .361 95 .128 .352 1 0.4 .299 103 13
Daniel Johnson 461 .231 .282 .377 88 .146 .299 -4 0.4 .287 88 49
James McCann 250 .231 .281 .353 81 .122 .298 -2 0.4 .278 75 23
Jean Segura 335 .247 .305 .326 82 .078 .290 -1 0.3 .280 80 34
Niko Goodrum 289 .228 .315 .334 88 .106 .328 -6 0.3 .292 85 29
Dylan Beavers 527 .229 .299 .347 86 .119 .304 0 0.2 .286 90 54
Jeremiah Jackson 469 .210 .254 .351 72 .141 .269 -1 0.2 .263 76 42
Douglas Hodo III 390 .205 .301 .302 75 .097 .317 3 0.2 .274 80 37
Max Wagner 341 .204 .276 .305 68 .101 .302 2 0.1 .260 73 28
Ethan Anderson 87 .250 .299 .375 93 .125 .317 -2 0.1 .293 100 10
Reed Trimble 230 .213 .283 .315 72 .102 .274 2 0.0 .264 76 21
Frederick Bencosme 522 .221 .281 .293 66 .072 .268 -2 0.0 .258 71 44
Silas Ardoin 397 .192 .271 .248 51 .056 .295 4 0.0 .239 58 25
Blake Hunt 291 .208 .261 .327 69 .119 .272 -2 -0.1 .259 70 23
Errol Robinson 223 .203 .274 .248 52 .045 .308 1 -0.1 .240 52 16
Shayne Fontana 316 .221 .299 .310 76 .089 .295 2 -0.2 .275 78 29
Griff O’Ferrall 95 .224 .295 .247 59 .024 .276 0 -0.2 .250 59 8
Collin Burns 352 .204 .261 .276 55 .071 .269 4 -0.3 .241 56 26
Jake Cunningham 350 .198 .264 .277 57 .079 .308 7 -0.3 .244 59 28
Maxwell Costes 222 .202 .279 .308 70 .106 .237 1 -0.4 .264 72 18
Aron Estrada 484 .229 .283 .329 76 .101 .273 -7 -0.4 .270 82 48
Randy Florentino 182 .212 .253 .294 58 .082 .277 -3 -0.5 .242 56 13
Jalen Vasquez 347 .190 .274 .277 60 .087 .281 -4 -0.5 .251 66 29
Elio Prado 360 .197 .270 .286 61 .089 .252 5 -0.6 .251 66 29
Donta’ Williams 314 .189 .284 .258 58 .069 .276 -4 -0.9 .251 58 25
Alfredo Velásquez 230 .206 .233 .247 39 .041 .262 -1 -0.9 .213 43 15
Carter Young 445 .207 .254 .289 56 .082 .299 -3 -0.9 .241 59 34
Cristian Benavides 110 .167 .218 .216 26 .049 .287 -2 -1.0 .198 37 6
Luis Valdez 329 .216 .265 .275 56 .059 .318 -6 -1.0 .242 57 30
TT Bowens 403 .207 .263 .328 69 .121 .297 0 -1.0 .261 69 33
Angel Tejada 313 .222 .250 .316 62 .094 .286 -7 -1.1 .246 69 28
Adam Retzbach 289 .157 .245 .267 48 .110 .288 -7 -1.2 .233 53 17
Ryan Higgins 317 .186 .250 .284 54 .098 .300 -5 -1.3 .240 59 22
Thomas Sosa 378 .203 .262 .286 58 .083 .304 0 -1.3 .246 67 31
John Rhodes 429 .195 .256 .289 57 .094 .261 1 -1.3 .244 63 30
Connor Pavolony 239 .161 .249 .232 40 .071 .259 0 -1.4 .223 44 13
Leandro Arias 371 .199 .266 .280 58 .081 .249 -9 -1.4 .245 67 28
Aneudis Mordán 427 .191 .252 .305 60 .115 .267 -10 -1.4 .248 69 33
Isaac De León 374 .181 .262 .253 50 .072 .305 -6 -1.6 .237 56 24
Anthony Servideo 409 .164 .248 .230 40 .066 .277 -6 -1.8 .222 42 23
Anderson De Los Santos 444 .185 .249 .276 51 .091 .274 -7 -2.1 .236 63 32
Noelberth Romero 395 .186 .228 .267 42 .081 .245 -9 -2.6 .220 46 26

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Gunnar Henderson Hanley Ramirez Alex Rodriguez Joe Cronin
Adley Rutschman Carlos Santana Mike Scioscia Gus Mancuso
Jordan Westburg Marty McManus Brett Lawrie Nick Castellanos
Colton Cowser Domingo Santana Rick Monday Steven Souza Jr.
Jackson Holliday Tony Bernazard Joe Morgan Rance Mulliniks
Cedric Mullins Dave May Daryl Boston Eric Byrnes
Anthony Santander Wally Judnich Glenn Davis Bob Horner
Coby Mayo Doug Rader Alex Gordon Bill Melton
Heston Kjerstad Mark Canha Jake Cave Bruce Aven
Enrique Bradfield Jr. Zack Granite Vernon Spearman Greg Lotzar
Daz Cameron Brian Goodwin Scott Loucks Gary Matthews
Jorge Mateo Danny Santana Greg Gagne Tom Brookens
Ramón Urías Rick Schu Mike Lamb Greg Dobbs
Ryan O’Hearn George McQuinn Dick Sisler Richie Hebner
Samuel Basallo Matt Sinatro Brad Gulden Miguel Montero
Forrest Wall Gorkys Hernández Kenny Wilson Matt Angle
Livan Soto Scott Campbell Ricky Gutierrez Frank Baker
Emmanuel Rivera Jim Anderson Geoff Blum Curt Smith
Nick Maton Vern Benson Luis Valbuena Emmett Mueller
Ryan Mountcastle Jose Calero Wil Cordero Brennan Boesch
Creed Willems John Mizerock Bill Nahorodny Otto Gonzalez
Eloy Jiménez Colin Moran Dean Green Angel Echevarria
Jud Fabian Mike Brewer Pat Bryant Craig Adams
J.D. Davis Wilson Betemit Juan Richardson Dale Sveum
Hudson Haskin Ronnie Richardson Willie Argo Tanner Kirwer
Maverick Handley Joe Lawrence Jim Jones Charles Julian
Terrin Vavra John Powers Mike Hickey Gosuke Katoh
Tavian Josenberger James Mouton Selwyn Young Ronnie Chapman
David Bañuelos David Ross Bob Geren Jeff Grotewold
Garrett Cooper Dann Howitt Alan Cockrell Shane Spencer
René Pinto Luis Pujols Randall Schafer Paul Williams
Austin Overn Donzell McDonald Mike Warner Richard Loughridge
Daniel Johnson Jason Repko Corey Patterson Daniel Ortmeier
James McCann Bob Schmidt René Rivera Sandy Martinez
Jean Segura John Kerr Maicer Izturis Frank Verdi
Niko Goodrum Dave Owen Anthony Seratelli Dick Tracewski
Dylan Beavers Mike Davis Larry Whisenton Alan Bannister
Jeremiah Jackson Benji Gil Pat Valaika Brandon Hicks
Douglas Hodo III Willie Argo Jim Landis Jeff DaVanon
Max Wagner Todd Hankins Jason Christian Bob Bailey
Ethan Anderson Francisco Marquez Kurt Deluca Sonny Ruberto
Reed Trimble Joe Bonadonna Selwyn Young Bernard Caston
Frederick Bencosme Omar Infante Omar Vizquel Tzu-Wei Lin
Silas Ardoin Carl Nichols Pat Callahan Mike O’Berry
Blake Hunt Mike Matheny Pedro Lopez Scott Rainey
Errol Robinson Eric Pringle John Sullivan Warren Sawkiw
Shayne Fontana Adam Heisler Tony Mota Whitey Herzog
Griff O’Ferrall Nielsen Abreu Luis Gomez Chip Lawrence
Collin Burns Mike Horning Brad Boyer Ryan Rutz
Jake Cunningham Issael Gonzalez Todd Hankins Bubba Thompson
Maxwell Costes Adam Amar Matt Gedman Matthew Devins
Aron Estrada Carlos Hernandez Dalton Jones Craig Kornfeld
Randy Florentino Ed Rosado Michael Uremovich Travis Chapman
Jalen Vasquez Garrett Hampson Anderson Machado Johnny Raburn
Elio Prado Rick Colzie Bill Dube Jimmy Herron
Donta’ Williams Ricky Strickland Jeffrey Grate Joey Zellner
Alfredo Velásquez Andri Gomez Smelin Perez Óscar Mercado
Carter Young Pedro Florimón Brandon Loy Brandon Chaves
Cristian Benavides Ron French Danny Liggins Leobaldo Cabrera
Luis Valdez Jason Clements B.J. Guinn Ken Morimoto
TT Bowens Brian Turner Louis Garvin Luke Anders
Angel Tejada David Nick Winston Llenas Tony Toups
Adam Retzbach Rod Ehrhard Tom Cook Mike Daniel
Ryan Higgins John Welch Todd DeGraffenreid J.D. Vidal
Thomas Sosa Norman Olson Kenny Wilson Keith Jones
John Rhodes Russ Quetti Kevin Coughlon Kelcey Mucker
Connor Pavolony Jeremy Schied Mark Gulseth Chris Maloney
Leandro Arias Kevin Stocker José Oquendo Juan Peralta
Aneudis Mordán Bo Naylor John Stutz Doug Camilli
Isaac De León Dale Soderholm Chad McClanahan Victor LaRose
Anthony Servideo Brett King Matt Smith Anderson Machado
Anderson De Los Santos Sthervin Matos Steven Souza Jr. Kenny Grant
Noelberth Romero Felix Minaya Josh Parr Dave Garrow

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Gunnar Henderson .296 .389 .554 166 7.8 .249 .336 .441 123 4.3
Adley Rutschman .285 .370 .469 138 5.9 .235 .315 .380 101 3.3
Jordan Westburg .279 .343 .487 134 4.6 .233 .298 .384 93 2.0
Colton Cowser .279 .366 .472 139 4.3 .223 .315 .377 102 1.8
Jackson Holliday .261 .364 .440 127 4.4 .205 .310 .332 87 1.5
Cedric Mullins .268 .334 .453 123 4.0 .212 .282 .347 82 1.3
Anthony Santander .265 .338 .519 139 3.8 .218 .286 .404 98 0.7
Coby Mayo .267 .338 .484 132 3.6 .213 .280 .374 88 0.7
Heston Kjerstad .290 .362 .489 141 3.2 .229 .304 .379 98 0.8
Enrique Bradfield Jr. .274 .338 .374 106 2.6 .216 .285 .289 68 0.4
Daz Cameron .266 .338 .434 120 2.6 .209 .279 .331 75 0.3
Jorge Mateo .263 .305 .433 110 2.6 .206 .252 .332 69 0.7
Ramón Urías .285 .348 .455 128 2.5 .224 .293 .358 89 0.8
Ryan O’Hearn .293 .352 .489 139 2.6 .240 .301 .391 98 0.4
Samuel Basallo .280 .331 .454 118 2.8 .225 .276 .354 78 0.1
Forrest Wall .278 .346 .381 107 2.3 .220 .292 .293 68 0.4
Livan Soto .266 .340 .356 101 2.3 .210 .285 .282 65 0.2
Emmanuel Rivera .273 .336 .439 119 2.2 .216 .279 .335 75 0.2
Nick Maton .258 .347 .441 122 2.0 .201 .293 .344 82 0.1
Ryan Mountcastle .286 .328 .467 127 2.3 .228 .274 .373 88 -0.2
Creed Willems .237 .297 .425 103 2.2 .180 .241 .310 59 -0.1
Eloy Jiménez .291 .343 .457 127 2.0 .234 .285 .362 88 -0.1
Jud Fabian .222 .294 .375 89 2.0 .168 .244 .283 53 -0.4
J.D. Davis .259 .333 .419 114 1.7 .200 .276 .327 75 0.0
Hudson Haskin .246 .344 .362 102 1.6 .187 .285 .264 61 -0.4
Maverick Handley .228 .327 .316 86 1.3 .168 .265 .235 47 -0.2
Terrin Vavra .266 .348 .375 106 1.1 .207 .287 .284 66 -0.2
Tavian Josenberger .236 .314 .371 94 1.3 .177 .261 .272 55 -0.5
David Bañuelos .239 .308 .402 102 0.9 .178 .245 .290 55 0.0
Garrett Cooper .273 .337 .438 121 1.3 .214 .280 .341 79 -0.5
René Pinto .250 .296 .437 104 1.2 .189 .232 .316 57 -0.6
Austin Overn .263 .350 .427 122 0.7 .199 .285 .310 74 0.1
Daniel Johnson .258 .311 .426 107 1.4 .205 .254 .325 65 -1.0
James McCann .264 .312 .408 105 1.1 .201 .255 .303 63 -0.2
Jean Segura .276 .335 .360 100 1.0 .221 .277 .287 65 -0.4
Niko Goodrum .259 .342 .380 108 1.0 .199 .288 .284 70 -0.4
Dylan Beavers .248 .322 .387 101 1.1 .203 .275 .306 70 -0.9
Jeremiah Jackson .231 .275 .404 91 1.3 .184 .227 .305 52 -1.0
Douglas Hodo III .235 .330 .350 96 1.2 .179 .273 .261 57 -0.7
Max Wagner .236 .305 .354 88 1.0 .179 .249 .254 46 -0.8
Ethan Anderson .285 .334 .442 121 0.4 .218 .268 .317 68 -0.2
Reed Trimble .244 .313 .364 93 0.6 .186 .253 .281 54 -0.6
Frederick Bencosme .253 .312 .331 86 1.3 .192 .254 .253 47 -1.3
Silas Ardoin .222 .301 .289 71 0.9 .161 .242 .210 31 -1.0
Blake Hunt .241 .296 .380 91 0.7 .180 .232 .283 48 -0.8
Errol Robinson .235 .306 .286 72 0.5 .175 .245 .210 34 -0.6
Shayne Fontana .247 .329 .356 97 0.6 .192 .270 .273 58 -1.0
Griff O’Ferrall .255 .327 .286 77 0.1 .192 .265 .214 41 -0.4
Collin Burns .232 .288 .317 75 0.6 .175 .235 .242 39 -1.0
Jake Cunningham .227 .298 .317 75 0.5 .168 .237 .242 39 -1.1
Maxwell Costes .229 .305 .358 89 0.1 .179 .256 .263 52 -0.9
Aron Estrada .258 .313 .379 98 0.8 .203 .258 .290 58 -1.7
Randy Florentino .247 .291 .350 82 0.1 .179 .224 .248 37 -1.0
Jalen Vasquez .220 .303 .319 79 0.3 .163 .248 .230 40 -1.5
Elio Prado .225 .299 .334 83 0.3 .172 .245 .251 44 -1.4
Donta’ Williams .218 .312 .299 77 -0.2 .161 .253 .220 39 -1.6
Alfredo Velásquez .239 .264 .294 61 -0.2 .176 .202 .208 20 -1.4
Carter Young .230 .278 .323 71 -0.1 .178 .227 .245 36 -2.0
Cristian Benavides .199 .252 .263 45 -0.7 .141 .189 .177 7 -1.3
Luis Valdez .247 .292 .315 75 -0.2 .186 .235 .237 37 -1.8
TT Bowens .237 .287 .378 89 -0.1 .183 .235 .289 51 -2.0
Angel Tejada .251 .279 .371 83 -0.2 .188 .221 .274 43 -1.9
Adam Retzbach .190 .281 .328 73 -0.4 .130 .217 .219 29 -1.9
Ryan Higgins .214 .275 .332 74 -0.5 .157 .221 .238 34 -2.0
Thomas Sosa .232 .288 .336 78 -0.3 .176 .235 .255 41 -2.1
John Rhodes .227 .287 .327 78 -0.3 .168 .226 .244 37 -2.5
Connor Pavolony .188 .276 .273 59 -0.8 .137 .223 .196 24 -1.9
Leandro Arias .231 .298 .332 80 -0.5 .172 .241 .236 38 -2.4
Aneudis Mordán .225 .284 .360 84 -0.1 .162 .222 .257 42 -2.5
Isaac De León .209 .290 .299 69 -0.7 .153 .237 .215 32 -2.4
Anthony Servideo .191 .275 .265 56 -1.0 .137 .223 .190 20 -2.8
Anderson De Los Santos .208 .273 .318 68 -1.1 .155 .220 .234 31 -3.3
Noelberth Romero .211 .253 .309 59 -1.7 .158 .203 .235 25 -3.4

Batters – Platoon Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Gunnar Henderson .254 .342 .448 .285 .368 .520
Adley Rutschman .268 .349 .435 .257 .341 .416
Jordan Westburg .257 .325 .443 .256 .311 .433
Colton Cowser .242 .326 .395 .257 .346 .441
Jackson Holliday .219 .316 .350 .235 .342 .395
Cedric Mullins .225 .289 .370 .246 .315 .413
Anthony Santander .244 .316 .458 .239 .309 .460
Coby Mayo .241 .316 .424 .238 .310 .427
Heston Kjerstad .252 .326 .407 .267 .339 .445
Enrique Bradfield Jr. .234 .303 .308 .248 .316 .338
Daz Cameron .250 .321 .407 .234 .302 .374
Jorge Mateo .241 .289 .411 .227 .270 .360
Ramón Urías .252 .325 .432 .253 .318 .387
Ryan O’Hearn .250 .307 .400 .272 .333 .454
Samuel Basallo .239 .288 .366 .255 .309 .407
Forrest Wall .230 .299 .303 .256 .332 .350
Livan Soto .231 .301 .299 .245 .321 .336
Emmanuel Rivera .260 .328 .423 .234 .297 .359
Nick Maton .224 .306 .378 .233 .324 .388
Ryan Mountcastle .263 .313 .434 .254 .300 .420
Creed Willems .190 .246 .314 .212 .273 .378
Eloy Jiménez .266 .325 .422 .264 .311 .407
Jud Fabian .200 .285 .350 .195 .265 .318
J.D. Davis .235 .310 .383 .227 .303 .366
Hudson Haskin .231 .327 .331 .210 .309 .299
Maverick Handley .208 .306 .271 .192 .287 .271
Terrin Vavra .227 .310 .320 .243 .321 .331
Tavian Josenberger .209 .284 .330 .206 .288 .314
David Bañuelos .220 .304 .380 .200 .265 .322
Garrett Cooper .253 .317 .407 .242 .310 .381
René Pinto .232 .281 .411 .211 .251 .356
Austin Overn .240 .321 .360 .230 .314 .361
Daniel Johnson .217 .269 .350 .236 .287 .387
James McCann .233 .288 .370 .229 .276 .344
Jean Segura .253 .319 .325 .246 .300 .326
Niko Goodrum .247 .337 .342 .221 .307 .331
Dylan Beavers .225 .289 .326 .230 .303 .356
Jeremiah Jackson .217 .266 .364 .207 .248 .346
Douglas Hodo III .210 .319 .330 .203 .293 .290
Max Wagner .213 .288 .330 .201 .270 .294
Ethan Anderson .240 .296 .360 .255 .300 .382
Reed Trimble .215 .278 .308 .211 .285 .317
Frederick Bencosme .206 .262 .275 .227 .287 .299
Silas Ardoin .196 .287 .255 .190 .263 .245
Blake Hunt .216 .270 .353 .204 .256 .311
Errol Robinson .217 .299 .246 .195 .260 .248
Shayne Fontana .211 .294 .289 .225 .300 .319
Griff O’Ferrall .214 .290 .250 .228 .297 .246
Collin Burns .189 .245 .274 .211 .267 .276
Jake Cunningham .213 .282 .330 .192 .257 .254
Maxwell Costes .200 .279 .333 .203 .279 .297
Aron Estrada .230 .279 .325 .228 .284 .331
Randy Florentino .196 .222 .294 .218 .266 .294
Jalen Vasquez .183 .264 .280 .193 .277 .276
Elio Prado .202 .279 .287 .195 .267 .286
Donta’ Williams .173 .264 .247 .196 .291 .263
Alfredo Velásquez .206 .239 .235 .205 .229 .252
Carter Young .212 .256 .301 .205 .253 .284
Cristian Benavides .182 .229 .212 .159 .213 .217
Luis Valdez .216 .260 .268 .216 .268 .279
TT Bowens .216 .274 .351 .202 .257 .315
Angel Tejada .216 .239 .295 .224 .255 .324
Adam Retzbach .154 .250 .282 .158 .241 .260
Ryan Higgins .189 .253 .300 .185 .249 .277
Thomas Sosa .188 .243 .271 .209 .269 .292
John Rhodes .205 .268 .307 .190 .251 .280
Connor Pavolony .169 .263 .254 .156 .241 .220
Leandro Arias .202 .269 .277 .197 .265 .282
Aneudis Mordán .195 .258 .305 .189 .249 .305
Isaac De León .186 .268 .257 .178 .258 .251
Anthony Servideo .160 .236 .210 .166 .253 .238
Anderson De Los Santos .191 .260 .296 .182 .244 .268
Noelberth Romero .193 .236 .269 .183 .224 .266

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Corbin Burnes R 30 13 8 3.28 30 30 181.3 152 66 17 50 178
Kyle Bradish R 28 8 6 3.33 24 24 129.7 110 48 12 41 129
Zach Eflin R 31 10 8 3.75 26 25 148.7 149 62 19 25 122
Grayson Rodriguez R 25 8 7 3.77 22 22 121.7 109 51 15 36 130
Dean Kremer R 29 9 8 3.95 26 26 134.3 127 59 17 45 119
Félix Bautista R 30 5 2 2.56 50 0 52.7 35 15 5 18 73
Cade Povich L 25 9 9 4.25 28 27 135.7 129 64 17 52 126
Trevor Rogers L 27 7 7 4.29 27 27 134.3 134 64 15 51 115
Yennier Cano R 31 4 2 3.27 66 0 63.3 56 23 5 21 61
Brandon Young R 26 5 4 4.16 24 21 93.0 92 43 12 29 83
Chayce McDermott R 26 5 5 4.27 22 19 97.0 86 46 12 49 102
Alex Pham R 25 5 5 4.38 25 23 100.7 99 49 13 40 86
Keegan Akin L 30 3 2 3.47 50 3 70.0 61 27 9 18 81
Cameron Weston R 24 7 8 4.18 24 15 90.3 88 42 11 29 75
Bruce Zimmermann L 30 4 5 4.33 22 17 89.3 95 43 12 25 73
John Means L 32 4 4 4.10 14 14 68.0 65 31 10 16 51
Tucker Davidson L 29 7 7 4.32 28 14 100.0 102 48 12 37 79
Tyler Wells R 30 5 4 4.36 23 15 84.7 77 41 13 25 73
Adrian Houser R 32 5 5 4.47 24 16 96.7 100 48 10 37 64
Danny Coulombe L 35 2 2 3.26 42 0 38.7 34 14 4 11 39
Albert Suárez R 35 6 6 4.58 26 18 106.0 114 54 17 36 86
Gregory Soto L 30 5 3 3.60 62 0 55.0 46 22 4 24 63
Kyle Brnovich R 27 3 4 4.48 18 11 68.3 68 34 9 24 57
Seranthony Domínguez R 30 5 3 3.70 59 0 56.0 47 23 6 24 60
Trace Bright R 24 4 6 4.82 26 24 99.0 98 53 14 48 86
Cionel Pérez L 29 2 2 3.67 61 0 54.0 49 22 3 25 47
Peter Van Loon R 26 3 3 4.55 17 13 57.3 57 29 8 21 48
Patrick Reilly R 23 5 6 4.82 25 23 102.7 101 55 15 50 88
Jacob Webb R 31 4 3 3.83 58 0 56.3 49 24 6 24 58
Zach Peek R 27 2 2 4.56 14 9 49.3 49 25 6 22 41
Kyle Virbitsky R 26 4 5 4.62 30 8 74.0 78 38 10 23 56
Bryan Baker R 30 3 3 3.93 50 0 52.7 46 23 5 22 52
Justin Armbruester R 26 5 8 4.99 25 22 106.3 107 59 16 43 82
Jonathan Heasley R 28 3 5 4.87 25 14 85.0 88 46 13 30 65
Craig Kimbrel R 37 6 5 4.07 52 0 48.7 39 22 6 25 60
Colin Selby R 27 2 2 4.20 40 1 45.0 41 21 5 22 47
Jakob Hernandez L 29 2 1 4.13 29 0 32.7 30 15 4 14 33
Ryan Long R 25 3 5 4.89 22 11 84.7 91 46 13 29 57
Nick Vespi L 29 2 2 4.21 38 0 51.3 51 24 6 19 44
Thaddeus Ward R 28 4 7 5.09 24 21 93.7 95 53 12 51 73
Nick Avila R 27 4 5 4.56 35 3 47.3 50 24 6 18 37
Nolan Hoffman R 27 4 4 4.22 38 0 53.3 52 25 5 22 44
Levi Stoudt R 27 5 7 5.01 27 14 79.0 85 44 11 35 53
Logan Rinehart R 27 2 2 4.57 28 2 43.3 43 22 6 19 37
Julio Teheran R 34 3 3 5.16 12 11 52.3 57 30 9 18 36
Blaine Knight R 29 2 4 4.92 20 6 53.0 56 29 6 23 38
Nick Anderson R 34 3 2 4.30 38 0 37.7 37 18 5 14 33
Burch Smith R 35 2 2 4.47 40 0 44.3 48 22 6 13 36
Corbin Martin R 29 3 3 4.97 25 6 54.3 56 30 7 27 44
Houston Roth R 27 4 5 4.87 28 5 61.0 62 33 9 29 50
Ryan Hennen L 27 3 2 4.46 25 0 36.3 38 18 5 12 29
Andrew Suárez L 32 2 2 4.76 27 2 56.7 61 30 8 22 43
Carlos Tavera R 26 3 5 5.15 22 9 71.7 74 41 11 41 57
Matt Bowman R 34 2 2 4.70 44 1 51.7 52 27 7 22 42
Keagan Gillies R 27 2 2 4.57 37 0 41.3 41 21 6 18 37
Travis Lakins Sr. R 31 1 2 5.04 21 1 25.0 26 14 4 12 21
Bradley Brehmer R 25 5 7 4.82 28 3 61.7 67 33 9 21 44
Kade Strowd R 27 3 4 4.60 38 0 47.0 46 24 6 22 44
Morgan McSweeney R 27 1 2 4.86 28 0 33.3 33 18 4 17 26
Chris Ellis R 32 3 4 5.46 14 12 56.0 62 34 9 29 37
Tyler Burch R 27 2 2 4.73 23 0 32.3 35 17 5 12 23
Dylan Heid R 27 3 4 4.76 35 0 51.0 51 27 7 28 43
Wandisson Charles R 28 3 4 5.29 30 0 32.3 32 19 4 22 29
Nick Richmond R 27 2 3 5.26 31 0 37.7 40 22 5 18 26
Dan Hammer R 27 2 3 5.80 26 2 40.3 40 26 6 32 36

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Corbin Burnes 181.3 8.8 2.5 0.8 6.7% 24.0% .276 121 118 3.38 82 3.8
Kyle Bradish 129.7 9.0 2.8 0.8 7.6% 24.0% .281 119 116 3.50 84 2.6
Zach Eflin 148.7 7.4 1.5 1.2 4.1% 20.0% .293 106 103 3.78 94 2.3
Grayson Rodriguez 121.7 9.6 2.7 1.1 7.1% 25.6% .293 105 105 3.65 95 1.8
Dean Kremer 134.3 8.0 3.0 1.1 7.9% 21.0% .286 101 100 4.15 99 1.8
Félix Bautista 52.7 12.5 3.1 0.9 8.5% 34.6% .268 155 148 2.72 64 1.6
Cade Povich 135.7 8.4 3.4 1.1 8.9% 21.6% .292 94 96 4.21 107 1.3
Trevor Rogers 134.3 7.7 3.4 1.0 8.8% 19.8% .300 93 94 4.17 108 1.2
Yennier Cano 63.3 8.7 3.0 0.7 8.0% 23.1% .290 122 119 3.37 82 1.0
Brandon Young 93.0 8.0 2.8 1.2 7.3% 21.0% .297 96 98 4.14 105 1.0
Chayce McDermott 97.0 9.5 4.5 1.1 11.5% 23.9% .288 93 95 4.32 107 0.9
Alex Pham 100.7 7.7 3.6 1.2 9.1% 19.5% .292 91 95 4.37 110 0.9
Keegan Akin 70.0 10.4 2.3 1.2 6.3% 28.1% .294 115 112 3.35 87 0.9
Cameron Weston 90.3 7.5 2.9 1.1 7.5% 19.5% .289 95 98 4.30 105 0.9
Bruce Zimmermann 89.3 7.4 2.5 1.2 6.5% 19.0% .306 92 91 4.23 109 0.8
John Means 68.0 6.8 2.1 1.3 5.7% 18.1% .271 97 93 4.43 103 0.7
Tucker Davidson 100.0 7.1 3.3 1.1 8.5% 18.2% .297 92 92 4.36 109 0.7
Tyler Wells 84.7 7.8 2.7 1.4 7.1% 20.8% .268 91 92 4.41 110 0.7
Adrian Houser 96.7 6.0 3.4 0.9 8.8% 15.2% .292 89 86 4.47 112 0.6
Danny Coulombe 38.7 9.1 2.6 0.9 6.9% 24.5% .288 122 113 3.44 82 0.6
Albert Suárez 106.0 7.3 3.1 1.4 7.8% 18.6% .302 87 81 4.72 115 0.5
Gregory Soto 55.0 10.3 3.9 0.7 10.1% 26.6% .298 110 110 3.36 91 0.5
Kyle Brnovich 68.3 7.5 3.2 1.2 8.1% 19.3% .292 89 92 4.50 113 0.5
Seranthony Domínguez 56.0 9.6 3.9 1.0 10.0% 25.0% .283 108 106 3.77 93 0.5
Trace Bright 99.0 7.8 4.4 1.3 10.8% 19.3% .292 83 89 4.95 121 0.4
Cionel Pérez 54.0 7.8 4.2 0.5 10.6% 20.0% .293 108 106 3.72 92 0.4
Peter Van Loon 57.3 7.5 3.3 1.3 8.5% 19.4% .290 87 90 4.68 114 0.3
Patrick Reilly 102.7 7.7 4.4 1.3 11.0% 19.3% .288 82 89 4.97 121 0.3
Jacob Webb 56.3 9.3 3.8 1.0 10.0% 24.2% .287 104 102 3.89 96 0.3
Zach Peek 49.3 7.5 4.0 1.1 10.0% 18.6% .295 87 90 4.68 115 0.3
Kyle Virbitsky 74.0 6.8 2.8 1.2 7.2% 17.5% .298 86 90 4.52 116 0.2
Bryan Baker 52.7 8.9 3.8 0.9 9.8% 23.2% .287 101 99 3.80 99 0.2
Justin Armbruester 106.3 6.9 3.6 1.4 9.2% 17.6% .284 80 83 5.06 126 0.1
Jonathan Heasley 85.0 6.9 3.2 1.4 8.1% 17.5% .290 82 83 4.84 122 0.1
Craig Kimbrel 48.7 11.1 4.6 1.1 11.8% 28.4% .284 98 87 4.10 102 0.1
Colin Selby 45.0 9.4 4.4 1.0 11.1% 23.6% .298 95 97 4.20 106 0.1
Jakob Hernandez 32.7 9.1 3.9 1.1 9.9% 23.2% .292 96 98 4.13 104 0.1
Ryan Long 84.7 6.1 3.1 1.4 7.8% 15.4% .291 81 85 5.00 123 0.0
Nick Vespi 51.3 7.7 3.3 1.1 8.6% 19.8% .298 95 94 4.21 106 0.0
Thaddeus Ward 93.7 7.0 4.9 1.2 12.0% 17.2% .292 78 79 5.27 128 0.0
Nick Avila 47.3 7.0 3.4 1.1 8.7% 17.8% .303 87 90 4.47 115 0.0
Nolan Hoffman 53.3 7.4 3.7 0.8 9.5% 19.0% .296 94 96 4.15 106 0.0
Levi Stoudt 79.0 6.0 4.0 1.3 9.8% 14.9% .294 79 82 5.13 126 0.0
Logan Rinehart 43.3 7.7 3.9 1.2 9.9% 19.3% .291 87 90 4.72 115 0.0
Julio Teheran 52.3 6.2 3.1 1.5 7.9% 15.7% .291 77 72 5.30 130 0.0
Blaine Knight 53.0 6.5 3.9 1.0 9.7% 16.0% .299 81 82 4.80 124 0.0
Nick Anderson 37.7 7.9 3.3 1.2 8.6% 20.4% .294 92 87 4.35 108 0.0
Burch Smith 44.3 7.3 2.6 1.2 6.7% 18.7% .309 89 83 4.33 112 -0.1
Corbin Martin 54.3 7.3 4.5 1.2 11.0% 17.9% .299 80 81 4.83 125 -0.1
Houston Roth 61.0 7.4 4.3 1.3 10.6% 18.3% .293 82 85 5.03 122 -0.1
Ryan Hennen 36.3 7.2 3.0 1.2 7.6% 18.5% .300 89 91 4.44 112 -0.1
Andrew Suárez 56.7 6.8 3.5 1.3 8.7% 17.1% .301 83 82 4.71 120 -0.1
Carlos Tavera 71.7 7.2 5.1 1.4 12.3% 17.2% .292 77 81 5.38 129 -0.1
Matt Bowman 51.7 7.3 3.8 1.2 9.7% 18.6% .292 85 80 4.71 118 -0.2
Keagan Gillies 41.3 8.1 3.9 1.3 9.8% 20.1% .294 87 90 4.73 115 -0.2
Travis Lakins Sr. 25.0 7.6 4.3 1.4 10.5% 18.4% .297 79 78 5.14 127 -0.2
Bradley Brehmer 61.7 6.4 3.1 1.3 7.8% 16.3% .299 83 86 4.91 121 -0.2
Kade Strowd 47.0 8.4 4.2 1.1 10.5% 21.1% .299 87 90 4.56 116 -0.2
Morgan McSweeney 33.3 7.0 4.6 1.1 11.4% 17.4% .290 82 85 4.80 122 -0.2
Chris Ellis 56.0 5.9 4.7 1.4 11.2% 14.3% .294 73 71 5.66 137 -0.2
Tyler Burch 32.3 6.4 3.3 1.4 8.3% 16.0% .297 84 85 5.06 119 -0.2
Dylan Heid 51.0 7.6 4.9 1.2 12.0% 18.5% .293 83 86 5.04 120 -0.4
Wandisson Charles 32.3 8.1 6.1 1.1 14.1% 18.6% .298 75 78 5.22 133 -0.4
Nick Richmond 37.7 6.2 4.3 1.2 10.4% 15.0% .294 76 76 5.43 132 -0.5
Dan Hammer 40.3 8.0 7.1 1.3 16.3% 18.4% .293 69 70 6.08 146 -0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Corbin Burnes Justin Verlander Stephen Strasburg Johnny Cueto
Kyle Bradish Mort Cooper Dean Chance Butch Wensloff
Zach Eflin Johnny Sain Masahiro Tanaka Jon Lieber
Grayson Rodriguez Mat Latos Ken Forsch Gerrit Cole
Dean Kremer Jeremy Guthrie Sonny Gray Ramon Ortiz
Félix Bautista Rich Gossage Bryan Harvey Craig Kimbrel
Cade Povich Jerry Reuss Alex Kellner Jalen Beeks
Trevor Rogers Dave Otto Adam Conley Jerry Reuss
Yennier Cano Jeremy Jeffress Steve Karsay Alex Colome
Brandon Young Bo McLaughlin Ryan Sheldon Philip Humber
Chayce McDermott Mac Suzuki Red Witt Ben Rivera
Alex Pham Pedro Liriano Marco Estrada Brian Rogers
Keegan Akin Rich Folkers Glen Perkins Garland Braxton
Cameron Weston Chad Bettis Bo McLaughlin Todd Burns
Bruce Zimmermann Andy Van Hekken David Huff Zach Duke
John Means Fred Fussell Donovan Osborne Art Nehf
Tucker Davidson Jonathon Rouwenhorst Matt Blank Ron Mrozinski
Tyler Wells Ed Halicki Ray Poat Charles Hudson
Adrian Houser Andrew Cashner Matt Garza Odrisamer Despaigne
Danny Coulombe Ramon Hernandez Scott Downs Joey Eischen
Albert Suárez Homer Bailey Brett Tomko Pat Dobson
Gregory Soto Jake Diekman Andy Hassler Justin Wilson
Kyle Brnovich Vic Keen Dick Lange J.R. Graham
Seranthony Domínguez Jesse Crain Pedro Baez Curt Leskanic
Trace Bright Alex Colome Aaron Myette Tom Newell
Cionel Pérez Dave Rucker Jeff Calhoun Sam Freeman
Peter Van Loon Larry Carter Elvis Perez Tyler Cravy
Patrick Reilly Aaron Myette Alex Colome Chance Adams
Jacob Webb Walt Masterson Kevin Gregg Ted Power
Zach Peek Fred Holdsworth Jim Wright Gary Wex
Kyle Virbitsky Anthony Bass Chris Nelson Dirk Hayhurst
Bryan Baker Matt Albers Justin Miller Lou Trivino
Justin Armbruester Matt Keough Fred Talbot Aaron Blair
Jonathan Heasley Gordon Rhodes Parker Bridwell Bob Milacki
Craig Kimbrel Rudy Seanez Diego Segui Juan Berenguer
Colin Selby Bill Wilson Ray Miller Felix Rodriguez
Jakob Hernandez Bill Pleis Josh Edgin Mike Stanton
Ryan Long Bob Davies Max Duval Jose Rosario
Nick Vespi Joe Savery Mike Gallo Pedro Feliciano
Thaddeus Ward Thomas Arruda Daniel Corcino Joe Nathan
Nick Avila Collin Kerley Mike Solbach Peter Palermo
Nolan Hoffman Tim Drummond Thomas Frondorf Tim Lahey
Levi Stoudt Kyle Dowdy Jacob Turner Paul Clemens
Logan Rinehart Kirk Bullinger Rod Stevenson Matt Stites
Julio Teheran Craig Swan Alfredo Aceves Salvador Rodriguez
Blaine Knight Fredy Quintero Daven Bond Kenneth Sigman
Nick Anderson Ernie Johnson Dick Drago Skip Lockwood
Burch Smith Chad Qualls Frank Sullivan Dennis Lamp
Corbin Martin John Romonosky Fernando Rijo B.J. Rosenberg
Houston Roth P.J. Francescon Dick Lange Mark Woodyard
Ryan Hennen Jeff Huber Jamie Walker Chad Hale
Andrew Suárez Brian Duensing Fu-Te Ni Ross Grimsley
Carlos Tavera Yfrain Linares Pat Collins Willie Glen
Matt Bowman Bucky Brandon Tom Hume Tom Hurd
Keagan Gillies Rod Stevenson Matt Stites Kirk Bullinger
Travis Lakins Sr. Erik Bennett Daryl Patterson Bill Wilson
Bradley Brehmer Glenn Davis Zach Frachiseur J.R. Graham
Kade Strowd Aris Tirado Johnny Barbato Chad Povich
Morgan McSweeney Terry Cornutt Ronald Welsch John Ogiltree
Chris Ellis Robert McCauley Ken Ray Adelbert Norwood
Tyler Burch Marv Rockman Jimmy Marrujo Dan Brown
Dylan Heid Zach Simons Francisco Mendoza John Lujan
Wandisson Charles Harvey Mattingly Hector Nelo Tad Slowik
Nick Richmond Bill Geiger Ricky Strebeck Chris Squires
Dan Hammer Yoel Espinal James Thornton Trey Haley

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Corbin Burnes .229 .291 .348 .216 .270 .348 4.8 2.4 2.81 3.98
Kyle Bradish .226 .298 .327 .223 .286 .367 3.4 1.7 2.87 3.87
Zach Eflin .259 .300 .442 .252 .277 .386 3.1 1.4 3.31 4.32
Grayson Rodriguez .219 .282 .366 .248 .306 .405 3.0 0.9 3.09 4.33
Dean Kremer .234 .311 .383 .253 .304 .411 2.5 0.8 3.51 4.63
Félix Bautista .179 .250 .286 .189 .263 .321 2.3 0.6 1.75 3.80
Cade Povich .237 .314 .372 .249 .318 .416 2.3 0.2 3.72 4.89
Trevor Rogers .248 .333 .350 .256 .320 .421 2.1 0.1 3.76 4.98
Yennier Cano .250 .311 .380 .216 .284 .321 1.7 0.2 2.66 4.33
Brandon Young .250 .319 .395 .255 .306 .432 1.7 0.4 3.60 4.74
Chayce McDermott .250 .341 .429 .214 .310 .342 1.6 0.0 3.75 5.01
Alex Pham .240 .309 .398 .263 .330 .424 1.6 0.1 3.85 4.97
Keegan Akin .213 .253 .337 .236 .290 .404 1.6 0.1 2.63 4.47
Cameron Weston .254 .326 .416 .246 .308 .397 1.4 0.2 3.73 4.76
Bruce Zimmermann .267 .306 .426 .267 .323 .435 1.4 0.0 3.78 5.07
John Means .235 .288 .368 .250 .297 .434 1.2 0.3 3.62 4.67
Tucker Davidson .229 .319 .364 .272 .328 .435 1.3 -0.1 3.88 4.98
Tyler Wells .224 .277 .378 .247 .305 .445 1.3 0.1 3.82 5.03
Adrian Houser .288 .365 .452 .239 .301 .361 1.1 0.0 4.08 5.03
Danny Coulombe .232 .283 .321 .231 .290 .407 0.9 0.1 2.50 4.55
Albert Suárez .273 .344 .444 .265 .311 .460 1.2 -0.3 4.08 5.36
Gregory Soto .206 .296 .286 .228 .319 .352 1.2 -0.2 2.76 4.59
Kyle Brnovich .230 .310 .381 .275 .338 .444 0.9 0.0 3.96 5.11
Seranthony Domínguez .247 .327 .412 .202 .281 .316 1.1 -0.2 2.84 4.77
Trace Bright .240 .343 .399 .263 .343 .444 1.0 -0.3 4.35 5.36
Cionel Pérez .222 .305 .333 .244 .335 .341 0.8 -0.2 3.08 4.57
Peter Van Loon .262 .344 .449 .246 .313 .398 0.7 -0.1 4.07 5.15
Patrick Reilly .246 .344 .424 .256 .335 .427 1.0 -0.3 4.36 5.33
Jacob Webb .213 .306 .340 .242 .313 .392 0.9 -0.4 3.02 4.88
Zach Peek .255 .336 .426 .253 .342 .394 0.6 -0.1 4.07 5.24
Kyle Virbitsky .278 .340 .459 .255 .313 .416 0.7 -0.4 4.11 5.38
Bryan Baker .233 .324 .344 .227 .301 .373 0.7 -0.4 3.18 4.89
Justin Armbruester .274 .355 .473 .240 .318 .396 0.7 -0.6 4.57 5.59
Jonathan Heasley .261 .331 .446 .261 .322 .439 0.7 -0.6 4.35 5.56
Craig Kimbrel .222 .333 .389 .207 .308 .348 0.9 -0.7 2.97 5.73
Colin Selby .266 .363 .392 .213 .306 .372 0.5 -0.4 3.63 5.02
Jakob Hernandez .222 .286 .333 .247 .333 .432 0.4 -0.3 3.35 5.15
Ryan Long .265 .340 .453 .274 .322 .452 0.6 -0.5 4.42 5.47
Nick Vespi .257 .329 .371 .252 .317 .420 0.5 -0.4 3.51 4.84
Thaddeus Ward .288 .395 .475 .229 .330 .370 0.6 -0.7 4.57 5.75
Nick Avila .267 .333 .453 .265 .327 .402 0.3 -0.4 4.04 5.35
Nolan Hoffman .263 .355 .411 .239 .304 .363 0.3 -0.4 3.70 4.83
Levi Stoudt .250 .344 .426 .283 .348 .456 0.4 -0.6 4.56 5.62
Logan Rinehart .235 .319 .395 .270 .347 .449 0.3 -0.4 4.06 5.42
Julio Teheran .290 .368 .520 .255 .308 .418 0.3 -0.4 4.59 5.93
Blaine Knight .274 .369 .442 .259 .331 .397 0.3 -0.5 4.36 5.63
Nick Anderson .261 .338 .406 .244 .302 .423 0.2 -0.4 3.68 5.18
Burch Smith .288 .337 .488 .255 .315 .398 0.3 -0.4 3.67 5.51
Corbin Martin .274 .366 .434 .248 .325 .413 0.3 -0.6 4.43 5.81
Houston Roth .266 .367 .440 .252 .322 .427 0.3 -0.6 4.39 5.56
Ryan Hennen .261 .306 .370 .265 .330 .469 0.1 -0.4 3.91 5.27
Andrew Suárez .243 .299 .343 .280 .349 .484 0.3 -0.6 4.01 5.53
Carlos Tavera .261 .358 .444 .261 .354 .444 0.4 -0.7 4.56 5.77
Matt Bowman .258 .350 .438 .254 .317 .412 0.2 -0.6 4.05 5.67
Keagan Gillies .266 .348 .456 .241 .319 .398 0.2 -0.5 3.90 5.28
Travis Lakins Sr. .273 .360 .500 .255 .333 .418 0.0 -0.4 4.45 5.83
Bradley Brehmer .296 .369 .478 .250 .310 .417 0.3 -0.6 4.28 5.38
Kade Strowd .256 .356 .433 .245 .321 .383 0.2 -0.7 3.98 5.46
Morgan McSweeney .271 .368 .441 .239 .321 .394 0.0 -0.6 4.26 5.91
Chris Ellis .263 .366 .442 .282 .358 .473 0.2 -0.6 4.90 6.04
Tyler Burch .283 .358 .467 .261 .325 .449 -0.1 -0.5 4.22 5.20
Dylan Heid .255 .355 .426 .255 .344 .415 0.0 -0.8 4.18 5.50
Wandisson Charles .270 .395 .444 .234 .342 .391 -0.1 -0.8 4.67 6.57
Nick Richmond .257 .360 .446 .276 .371 .421 -0.3 -0.8 4.75 5.97
Dan Hammer .260 .407 .452 .247 .381 .412 -0.3 -1.1 5.13 6.85

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.


Arizona Diamondbacks Top 53 Prospects

by
December 6, 2024
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2253: Show Me the Money (Eventually)

by
December 6, 2024

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the A’s signing Luis Severino and year-end podcast-listening stats, follow up on the golden at-bat and Hall of Fame plaques, and (1:07:46) discuss the history of deferred payments in sports contracts.

Audio intro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Luke Lillard, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to FG post on Severino
Link to over/under draft results
Link to Gonzalez A’s tweet
Link to Passan spending tweet
Link to FG payrolls page
Link to Pesäpallo episode
Link to The Athletic’s Soto report
Link to Manfred and Stugotz
Link to non-Gandhi quote
Link to Russell on the golden AB
Link to golden thong story
Link to listener emails database
Link to plaque variations
Link to story on Jackie’s plaque
Link to AP on the Dodgers
Link to Dolgoff plan info 1
Link to Dolgoff plan info 2
Link to Ard interview
Link to ABA article
Link to “Sutter Day” on EW
Link to Sutter article
Link to Turner censure article
Link to reaping/sowing tweet
Link to Hunter article 1
Link to Hunter article 2
Link to Hunter article 3
Link to Hunter article 4
Link to Hunter article 5
Link to Hunter article 6
Link to 1981 article
Link to Rice article
Link to 2013 deferrals story
Link to EW gift subscriptions
Link to Secret Santa sign-up form

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The A’s (Yes, the A’s) Make a Splash in Free Agency

by
December 5, 2024
Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Let’s just put the headline up right away. Luis Severino is now an Athletic:

Now this is an interesting free agent signing. The A’s just signed the second-biggest deal of the offseason so far, and the largest in franchise history. They have one other player with a guaranteed contract on the team – and that’s lefty reliever T.J. McFarland, making $1.8 million in 2025. This is a sea change in terms of how the team operates, so let’s talk about why they did it and the ways it could succeed or fail.

First things first: The A’s could use some pitching. They were better than you’d think in 2024 – they won 19 more games than their dispiriting 2023 campaign. Three different A’s hitters – Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and JJ Bleday – eclipsed three wins above replacement, the first time that had happened since the team shipped out Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. All three of those guys are young and under team control for a while. Shea Langeliers and Zack Gelof both look like good everyday players. Jacob Wilson is an intriguing top prospect. If it weren’t for the overall John Fisher stink of the franchise, this lineup would feel mighty tantalizing.
Read the rest of this entry »


Maybe There’s No Such Thing as a Perfectly Fair Strike Zone

by
December 5, 2024

Last week, Russell Carleton wrote a thought-provoking article for Baseball Prospectus about the automatic ball-strike system, which will be creeping into the major league level during spring training in just a few months. What I found really fascinating was the particular distinction Carleton drew between the current zone and the robot one. “I think that there is a human element that we need to consider when talking about the automated strike zone,” Carleton wrote. “It’s just not that human element. It’s the one no one wants to talk about.” The element he was referring to was probability.

Assuming it’s functioning properly, the robot zone is perfectly black and white. Every pitch either touches the strike zone or doesn’t and that’s that. On the other hand, humans are imperfect, so the zone they call features plenty of gray. Pick any spot in or near the strike zone, and you can look up the probability that it will be called a ball or a strike. In the moment, for any one batter and pitcher, that’s completely unfair; a robot would know with 100% certainty whether the pitch should have been called a strike or a ball, whereas roughly 7% of the time, the human umpire will make the wrong call, screwing somebody over in the process. But over the course of a long season, things tend to balance out, and you can construct some reasonable arguments in favor of the current, unintentionally probabilistic approach.

If you’re familiar with the work of Umpire Scorecards, you’re likely used to the idea of a probability-based strike zone already. Umpire Scorecards grades umpires not simply by how well they adhere to the rulebook zone, but by how much better or worse than average they are at adhering to it. In order to make that judgement, it’s necessary to consider sorts of factors that might affect the call of an average umpire: location, speed, break, handedness, count, and so on. “The reality is that there’s the ‘definitely a strike’ zone,” Carleton wrote last week. “There’s the ‘definitely not a strike’ zone. And there’s the fuzzy zone. There are different rules in the fuzzy zone. Taking away the fuzzy zone and forcing it into the yes/no zone is going to have some very unpredictable consequences.” Take the count as an example. As you surely know, umpires see their zones tighten up with two strikes and loosen up with three balls. If that tendency disappeared, walk and strikeout rates would likely go up. Do we want that?

Because an ever-increasing number of umpires rose through the ranks under a system that rewards them for adhering to the Statcast zone, accuracy has been rising and rising. Another way to phrase it is that humans have been successfully trained to perform more and more like robots. We’ve already seen some of the consequences Carleton mentioned. Accuracy has increased faster for pitches inside the zone than outside the zone, which has resulted in more called strikes and depressed offense. Another effect is that umpires have been calling more strikes at the bottom of the zone – or if you prefer, catchers have been stealing more strikes at the bottom of the zone. Today, we’re particularly interested in the top and bottom, because when I was reading Carleton’s article, one thing kept popping into my mind. Here’s a diagram of the strike zone pulled straight from the MLB rulebook. Whoever posed for this thing has some serious cheekbones. Seriously, this dude is absolutely smoldering:

The rulebook zone starts at the midpoint between the shoulders and the top of the pants, which is why each time a new batter comes to the plate, the umpire stops the game, pulls out their trusty tape measure, and calculates that exact spot. Wait, sorry, the umpire doesn’t do that. As a result, the top and bottom of the zone are blurrier than the sides. Players on the extremes of the height spectrum often bear the brunt of that. If you look at the players who led the league in called strikes above the zone in 2024, you’ll find that five of the top eight – Sal Frelick, Corbin Carroll, Seiya Suzuki, Josh Smith, and Jose Altuve – stand 5-foot-10 or shorter. Likewise, the umpire never squats down to make sure they register the exact height of the hollow beneath the kneecap, so if you look for players who got the the most called strikes below the zone, you’ll find that four of the top 11 – Michael Toglia, Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz, and Aaron Judge – stand 6-foot-5 or taller. It’s not as dramatic a percentage as the short players at the bottom of the zone, but the trend is clear and it’s understandable. The torso midpoint and the knee hollow are just guidelines based on dubious anatomical landmarks – it might help to think of them the way a hitting coach thinks of instructional cues: You don’t actually want the batter to hit a low line drive to the opposite field every single time, but focusing on that goal can help them keep their swing right – and they’re every bit as fuzzy as the calls of the umpires tasked with abiding by them.

The ABS zone eschews body parts. It knows nothing of knees and shoulders, and if a batter were to sag their pants extremely low, it wouldn’t care that the midpoint between their top and the shoulders had just shifted down dramatically, reducing the size of the strike zone. (To be clear, a human umpire wouldn’t adjust the strike zone based on saggy pants either, but according to the letter of the law, they should.) ABS determines the top and bottom of the zone by using a percentage of the batter’s height, which is why hundreds of minor leaguers suddenly shrank last fall. The top of the zone is 53.5% of the batter’s height, while the bottom is 27%. If you’re keeping score at home, that means that the total height of the strike zone is 26.5% of the batter’s height. If that strikes you as a small percentage, you’re not wrong. I ran some quick measurements on our rulebook strike zone friend in the diagram above. His strike zone represents a whopping 41% of his crouched height. As it turns out, that’s because the proportions of the diagram are a bit off. If you measure everything based on the width of the strike zone in the diagram, 17 inches, you’ll discover that our friendly guy only stands 4-foot-5. Once again, this is the actual diagram that describes the strike zone in the official Major League Baseball rulebook! The height of the zone in the diagram works out to 22 inches. In order for it to be accurate according to the ABS zone – in which the height of the zone represents 26.5% of the batter’s total height – the batter would need to be 6-foot-9. When he stood up out of his crouch, our tiny batter would somehow need to find an extra an extra 27 inches of height!

I understand that umpires are being judged based on the Statcast zone, and that they’re also working off decades of experience. It’s not as if they’re pulling this diagram out of their pockets as a refresher between pitches. And maybe the foreshortening here is just a little bit dramatic. But also, uh, it may be time to update the officially sanctioned illustration of the zone that they see in their rulebooks.

All of this led me to one question: How much bigger is the strike zone for a tall player than a short player? Because ABS uses simple percentages based on the batter’s height, we can determine that exactly. Here’s the thing about the strike zone, though. The effective size of the strike zone is a lot bigger than its actual size. If one electron on the baseball’s outer edge passes through the zone, then the pitch counts as a strike. The zone that pitchers aim for and batters protect isn’t just 17 inches wide. It’s 17 inches wide plus the diameter of a baseball on either side. Regulation balls are between 2.865 to 2.944 inches in diameter, and we’re going to make our calculations using the bigger size, simply because, once again, we care about the effective zone that the batter actually has to protect. In all, that means the zone is just a hair under 22.889 inches wide for everyone.

The same goes for the height of the zone. Because this is the variable part, let’s just start with an average, 6-foot-2 major leaguer. The top of the zone will be 53.5% of their 74-inch height, which is to say 39.590 inches. Add the height of the ball and that brings us to 42.534 inches. For reference, a standard kitchen counter is 36 inches tall, so put a bobblehead on your counter and you’ve got the top of the zone for an average player. The bottom of the zone is 27% of their height, and once we factor in the diameter of the baseball, that works out to 17.036 inches off the ground. The average newborn baby is 19 to 20 inches tall, so for reference, head to the nursery of your local hospital, borrow the shortest baby you can find, and politely ask them to stand up. That’s the bottom of the average player’s zone.

To get the total area of the zone, we’re back in geometry class: Simply multiply the base times the height. Well, actually, that’s not quite true in this case. We need to remove some area around the corners because of the roundness of the baseball. Let me show you what I mean. Here’s the top-left corner of the zone:

There are three baseballs here. The one on the bottom and the one on the right are just barely touching the rulebook strike zone, so they’re definitely strikes. But what about the one on the top left? The edges of the ball, both on the bottom and on the right side, are within the parameters of the strike zone, but because it doesn’t have corners, the ball isn’t actually touching the zone. I don’t know how the Hawk-Eye system works, but I have to assume that it’s prepared for such a scenario. Right? Maybe? Even a perfect rulebook strike zone needs to have curved corners to account for this. I can’t tell you the exact area that we need to subtract from each corner of the zone because I have forgotten approximately 100% of the trigonometry I’ve ever learned. However, I used Photoshop to cheat and get an approximate measurement. I simply threw a whole bunch of baseballs on the same diagram, all of them touching the exact corner of the zone, and then measured the area in pink relative to the size of the ball.

[Update: Reader Joe Wilkey pointed out in the comments that the solution to this corner conundrum is actually very simple geometry. For each corner, you take the area of a square whose sides are the same diameter as the baseball (8.670 inches), then you subtract from it a quarter of the area of a circle whose radius is the diameter of a baseball (6.809 inches). The diagram below should help explain how that works. That means that we’ll subtract 1.860 inches per corner, or 7.442 inches in total. The following numbers have been updated to account for that figure.]

With that last puzzle piece in place, we can calculate the exact size of each player’s strike zone. The formula looks like this:

Area of Strike Zone = (((Width of Plate + (Width of Baseball x 2)) x (53.5% of Height – 27% of Height + (Width of Baseball x 2))) – (4 x ((Width of Baseball x Width of Baseball) – (pi x Width of Baseball x Width of Baseball ÷ 4)))

If all those parentheses make you want to die, we can hop into algebra and simplify the formula so it looks like this:

Area of Strike Zone = (22.9 x (26.5% of Height + 5.9)) – 7.4

Now that our formula is settled, let’s see how much of the strike zone different players actually have to cover.

Strike Zone Area Based on Height
Height Total Area Example Top Bottom
6’11” 630.8 Sean Hjelle 44.4 22.4
6’10” 624.7 Randy Johnson 43.9 22.1
6’9” 618.7 Bailey Ober 43.3 21.9
6’8” 612.6 Luke Little 42.8 21.6
6’7” 606.5 Aaron Judge 42.3 21.3
6’6” 600.5 Giancarlo Stanton 41.7 21.1
6’5” 594.4 Elly De La Cruz 41.2 20.8
6’4” 588.3 Shohei Ohtani 40.7 20.5
6’3” 582.3 Gunnar Henderson 40.1 20.3
6’2” 576.2 Babe Ruth 39.6 20.0
6’1” 570.1 Bobby Witt Jr. 39.1 19.7
6’0” 564.5 Matt Chapman 38.5 19.4
5’11” 558.0 Francisco Lindor 38.0 19.2
5’10” 551.9 Corbin Carroll 37.5 18.9
5’9” 545.9 José Ramírez 36.9 18.6
5’8” 539.8 Nick Madrigal 36.4 18.4
5’7” 533.7 Kolten Wong 35.8 18.1
5’6” 527.7 Jose Altuve 35.3 17.8
5’5” 521.6 Rabbit Maranville 34.8 17.6
5’4” 515.5 Willie Keeler 34.2 17.3
5’3” 509.5 Stubby Magner 33.7 17.0
5’2” 503.4 Shakira 33.2 16.7

Let’s go to everyone’s favorite odd couple. Aaron Judge’s strike zone is 3.45 inches taller than Jose Altuve’s, and its total area is a whopping 78.9 square inches larger. To put that in context, a marbled composition notebook, the kind you used to use in school, has a total area of 70.7 inches. That’s a pretty significant extra amount to cover, and don’t even get me started on the difference between Sean Hjelle’s zone and Shakira’s. If the 5-foot-4 Wee Willie Keeler were to come back and play as a zombie batter today, his strike zone would be almost perfectly square. For anyone shorter, the zone would be wider than it is tall.

Maybe even more interesting are the columns for the top and bottom. Judge’s zone starts seven inches above Altuve’s, but it ends just 3.5 inches below it. That’s just a result of using a percentage as the determining factor. It makes all the sense in the world to do so, but it’s likely the reason that list of players who get lots of unjust called strikes at the top of the zone is more densely packed with short players. The knees of short and tall players are much closer in height than their shoulders. When taking the height of the batter into account, umpires should be adjusting more at the top of the zone than the bottom, but clearly, that’s not so easy to do.

As for whether or not all of this is fair – bigger players having so much more zone to worry about than smaller players – my answer is a firm maybe. In absolute terms, Oneil Cruz has a much bigger strike zone to cover than Corbin Carroll, which is patently unfair. However, proportionally speaking, he doesn’t have to reach any higher or lower than Carroll does to get to the top or the bottom of the zone. The angles are exactly the same. Moreover, if we keep analyzing things proportionally, it’s clear that the strike zone is much narrower for him. Because Cruz’s larger height leaves him with longer arms and a longer torso to lean with, Carroll has to reach for an outside pitch in a way that Cruz doesn’t. The stills below are both taken from hard-hit balls on pitches that hit the outside corner.

Carroll’s whole swing is affected by the need to reach out for the ball, but look how much more upright Cruz is on the left. Even on the outside corner, the pitch is in his wheelhouse and he’s able to pull it approximately 9,000 feet. I’d guess that more than offsets the extra 54.6 inches of zone that Cruz has to cover. Even if we use an ABS system to implement a perfect strike zone, we still can’t make it perfectly fair.


2025 ZiPS Projections: San Francisco Giants

by
December 5, 2024

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

Well, the Giants have solved at least one problem: finding another Buster Posey. Not in the form of Joey Bart, as was the original intention for a few years, but rather in Patrick Bailey. Now, Bailey isn’t quite peak Posey, an unreasonable expectation to have of anyone, but he has become a legitimate star behind the plate. Bailey also doesn’t exhibit the same distribution of talent as Posey did, as Bailey is arguably the most valuable defensive player in baseball with just enough bat to make that drool-worthy. To make a reference that’s even too old for me, Bailey’s a bit like a reboot of The Six Million Dollar Man in which they had the technology to build the cyber-Platonic ideal of Austin Hedges.

Bailey isn’t the only high spot in the lineup. Matt Chapman, who it seems the projections were not too high on in 2024 after all, should have at least a few good years left in him, and the Giants are generally at least average-ish elsewhere. ZiPS is higher than the other systems on Tyler Fitzgerald, and both the computer and I are hoping to see what Jung Hoo Lee can do after injuries cost him the opportunity to make good on what was shaping up to be a middling-at-best debut in the US. Read the rest of this entry »


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