I write to you from a place of hiding. The Phillies’ outfield situation has taken a turn for the worse, and the team has sent out a multitude of agents in response. The Phanatic and his lieutenants — green and fuzzy, mounted on quad bikes, armed with hot dog launchers — are now scouring the countryside in search of able-bodied right-handed adults. From Lancaster to Lakewood, from New Brunswick to New Castle, they maraud over hill and dale. If you own a baseball glove and can bat, you’re liable to be pulled from your bed in the dead of night and dragooned, press-ganged, and otherwise cajoled into service as the Phillies’ right fielder. Read the rest of this entry »
Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA Today Network via Imagn Images
Last week, the illustrious Ben Clemens wrote about the state of the bunt, because the state of the bunt, as it turns out, is strong. Hitters are bunting more often, picking their spots better, and finding greater success. It’s a bunting renaissance. He didn’t appear in Ben’s article, but Milwaukee’s David Hamilton is at the forefront, leading the league with 10 bunt hits and 23 total bunts. It’s just the 12th time this decade a player has reached 23 bunts in a season, and we’re only halfway through June! Ben noted that 74.1% of bunts have been successful – meaning the bunt resulted in either a hit, an error on the defense, or a sacrifice – the highest mark in the universal DH era. With so much bunt in the air (and on the ground), I got to wondering how pitchers can fight back.
The first line of defense is to alter your positioning. You bring your third baseman in, play the corners in, put on the wheel play. But I wanted to come at it from another angle. If you’re a pitcher, and you want to make sure the batter at the plate doesn’t get a successful bunt down, what can you do? The two biggest things you can control are your pitch type and location. I dug into the Statcast data on bunts and attempted bunts over the past 18 years. This is not earthshaking research, and some of what I found is fairly intuitive, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen it laid out, and I definitely haven’t seen any numbers behind it. Read the rest of this entry »
Like many of us, Jake Burger is tuning in to as many World Cup matches as his schedule allows. The Texas Rangers first baseman is a big fan of “the beautiful game,” and has been for well over a decade. Moreover, it isn’t just the US national team that captures his attention. Burger is an ardent supporter of Tottenham Hotspur, one of the more prominent sides in the English Premier League.
How and when did the 30-year-old St. Louis native come to embrace a team based in North London?
“I became a Spurs fan probably around 2011-2012,” Burger told me. “Gareth Bale and Luka Modrić were my two favorite players. It kind of started with me playing [the FIFA video game] and knowing a lot of those names. Modrić was a wizard out there. Bale, too. Then, obviously, Harry Kane came over to Spurs and I became a big fan of his. They kind of went on a run when Mauricio Pochettino came in [as manager], so following them just became more a part of my life.
“In 2019, I got to go over there to the new stadium and watch a game,” Burger added. “They played Bournemouth and won 3-2. I went over with Ryan Burr and Jimmy Lambert, who were in the White Sox organization with me, and we saw a few other matches, as well. Lambert is a Liverpool fan, and Burr a Man City fan, so along with the Tottenham game we went to a Manchester Derby and a Merseyside Derby; we saw Liverpool play Everton.”
Being a Tottenham fan this past season was anything but easy. Had they lost their final match, they would have been relegated from England’s top league for the first time in nearly 50 years. Much to the relief of Spurs supporters everywhere, they defeated Everton 1-0 to remain safe. Read the rest of this entry »
On Wednesday night, I sent Michael Baumann a Slack message asking him the first question in today’s mailbag: How many teams have never had a 30/30 season? “Phew,” he said. “That’s a good one.” I told him I’d be answering it, but I thought it was a fun bit of trivia and wanted to know what his guess would be. I was on my way back from my softball game, and I told him I’d look it up as soon as I got home. But Baumann was impatient. He proceeded to run the search himself and answer the question for me.
“Thanks for doing the mailbag for me lol,” I said. He replied, “I had that thought. I just couldn’t help myself.” That’s the type of impulsive, obsessive behavior that drives us to answer your mailbag questions every week. Like you, we love all that is trivial, whimsical, historical, hypothetical, strategic, pedantic, gigantic, nitty, gritty, and silly about baseball. Your passion is our passion. Anyway, because Baumann couldn’t resist, part of the answer to the first question comes from his initial Stathead search. He told me to run my own search, just in case he missed something in his fervor.
We’ll get to the answer to that 30/30 question in a moment. We’ll also answer your questions on the teams with the greatest difference between cumulative player WAR generated and actual team wins, bases-loaded walks, and how to get your baseball fix when you’re short on time. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »
Tarik Skubal is the latest athlete to return to play faster than anticipated thanks to a new surgical technique or technology. But there’s something even better than coming back more quickly from an injury: avoiding an injury in the first place. Can injury prevention be improved as much as injury treatment? In this themed episode, Ben Lindbergh talks to four guests about three potential ways to keep players healthy. First (5:14), Mariners biomechanist Cedric Attias joins to discuss how pitching mechanics affect elbow stress, whether injuries stem more from nature or nurture, and whether MLB teams are prioritizing injury research. Second (49:23), Daryl and Adam Moreau, the father-and-son inventors of FlexProGrip, explain how forearm weakness endangers the UCL, how they designed and validated their training tool, and how the device has been adopted in the game. Third (1:41:18), Steve Rowson, director of the Helmet Lab at Virginia Tech, shares how helmets have improved across sports, why dangerous impacts are different in football and baseball, and why catcher’s masks may need an overhaul to minimize concussions.
Bryce Elder was thriving when he was featured here at FanGraphs in July 2023. Then in his first full season with the Atlanta Braves, the now 27-year-old right-hander was 8-2 with a 3.18 ERA, and he’d recently been named an NL All-Star. Killing worms was his M.O. Relying heavily on a sinker, Elder boasted a 53.6% groundball rate, which ranked fifth best among qualified pitchers.
Then things slowly started going south. From August 2023 through last season, Elder was on the winning end of just 14 decisions while putting up a 5.53 ERA over 48 starts comprising 259 innings. The University of Texas product had gone from a burgeoning frontline starter to profiling as more of a back-of-the-rotation arm.
Adversity has a way of begetting change, and much for that reason, Elder is no longer the same pitcher who struggled to record outs. The transformation has taken a bit of time — Rome wasn’t built in a day — but his current-season results are certainly pleasing to the eye. Over 14 starts, Elder has a record of 5-3 to go with a 2.66 ERA and a 3.46 FIP over 84 2/3 innings. Notably, his 45.0% groundball rate is the lowest of his career.
Elder discussed his evolution — one that has essentially brought him full circle in terms of success — when the Braves visited Fenway Park late last month.
———
David Laurila: It’s been three years since we first spoke. What has changed?
Bryce Elder: “A lot has changed. When we talked in 2023, I’d been on a roll; I’d had a good first half. But then the second half was pretty rough. It wasn’t all rough, but the numbers weren’t all that great. I was kind of like, ‘I’m tired of sucking, tired of not being very good, so I’m going to try to make some changes. I’d never worked on mechanics too much, and I’d never been a big, like, stuff chaser, but I got tired of dying on the hill of complete execution.
“I never thought I’d be saying that, even a year ago. But what I figured out is that if I could make my stuff a little better, that would only help. And then, if I was moving a little better on the mound, my execution was going to be just as good as it’s ever been, if not better. So, I think I’ve had a little tick up in stuff, as well as in my execution.”
Eric A Longenhagen: Friday chat fam, what’s up? Hello from the kitchen island in Tempe as monsoon season looks like it has arrived early and we’re in line for some rain today.
12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote up the Twins with James this week. Two more orgs to go before we’re done with all 30. I’m starting on Rays this weekend, Brendan is doing Marlins. Pretty exciting stuff! Let’s see what you’ve got for me today…
12:33
WarrenJ: Happy to see Merphy Hernandez in your Twins writeup, even as an honorable mention. Yohandy Morales isn’t a favorite of the prospect community, but he’s hitting 339/415/596 at Rochester. Don’t the Nationals have to give him a try soon?
12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Merphy can play some defense, man. I share in the Yohandy skepticism but think he’s in line for trial after Garcia is traded.
12:34
muenstertruck: No real question, but I’m excited that Daniel Espino finally got the call. I can’t imagine his stuff is quite as electric as it was before the injuries, but he’s still bumping 100 in the minors and the story behind it is amazing.
12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s going to be a higher leverage reliever, I think. Sitting 96-100 with plus vert, slider generating plus miss. Ryan Helsley look to the mechanics. Hunter Harvey type trajectory for Espino.
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Minnesota Twins. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s a busy time for sports right now. The NBA Finals have been incredible. The Stanley Cup Finals have been nearly as good. The World Cup just started; Team USA is playing tonight. With this embarrassment of entertainment riches, regular season baseball might seem to temporarily lose a little bit of its luster. But even if you want to watch those other great spectacles, I implore you to set aside a few hours of your life this weekend for baseball. For a limited time only, they’re playing on the moon.
OK, fine, maybe not the actual moon. There are any number of logistical and physical challenges involved in that. But the first half of the six-game Las Vegas series has been the next best thing, and before the A’s play the Rockies this weekend, I’m hoping to convince you to watch it. I wouldn’t want my baseball to always look like this, but in small doses, it’s absolutely captivating.
The Athletics, currently playing in the minor league stadium of the Sacramento River Cats, have taken up an even briefer temporary residence in the stadium of their Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas Aviators. It’s a preview of sorts – in advance of their scheduled 2028 move to Sin City, the team is playing a six-game series there. And boy, does the ball carry in the desert.
Las Vegas sits only 2,000 feet above sea level. That sounds like nothing – Coors Field, the archetypical high-altitude ballpark, is famously a mile high. But the major league stadium at the second-highest altitude is Chase Field in Arizona, and it’s only 1,000 feet above sea level. That elevation helps the ball carry, but it’s only one of the many reasons that offense is high here. For one thing, it’s hot. High temperatures are forecast to exceed 100 degrees this weekend, with lows in the mid-80s providing little respite even at night. The air is as dry as it gets; Las Vegas has a lower average relative humidity than any big league city, and it’s particularly dry in the middle of summer. It’s an outdoor park, so there’s no escaping the hot, arid conditions. The PCL was the homer-happiest minor league in 2025, and Vegas was the homer-happiest park in the PCL. Read the rest of this entry »
Manny Machado was in the news last week for what got called an anti-analytics rant. This would’ve been a bigger deal 10 or 15 years ago, when front offices were still coming to grips with empirical study as a part of scouting and player development, but that battle’s over now. The nerds are here.
Machado said the game’s getting harder to play, and that there are “too many stats out there. Too many stats, way too many numbers. I don’t even know half of the stuff that goes up there. I look at the board sometimes, and I even ask some of the guys, like, ‘What is WCCVBB, whatever it is?’… It’s crazy to even keep up with.”
As someone who makes his living using WCCVBB, I think Machado’s actually got a point here. I’m an analyst with a social science background: There is no stat so newfangled I won’t poke it to see if it’ll teach me — or better yet, you, the fans — something new about the game. Read the rest of this entry »
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