Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs authors Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens play “SEC Baseball Player vs. Figure Involved in the Lincoln Assassination,” banter about two umpire faux pas (3:45) and MLB’s tweaks to replay reviewing (9:45), and then (17:32) each make 10 predictions about baseball in 2023 to be voted on by listeners, followed (1:40:16) by two Past Blasts from 1987.

Audio intro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: The Baseball Project, “All Future and No Past”

Link to listener voting form
Link to Realmuto ejection
Link to AP on Realmuto
Link to Romo outing
Link to Stark on replay reviews
Link to story on Zoom replay reviews
Link to Dave Cameron on slide reviews
Link to Cameron on transfers
Link to Vogelbach/Showalter spot
Link to Clay Davenport on SBs
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to “Gay Bar”by Electric Six
Link to Rob Arthur on bat cracks
Link to Rob on bat cracks again
Link to MLBTR on Giménez’s extension
Link to 2022 Rockies deadline story
Link to Acuña 50-50 story
Link to Stark on the pie slice
Link to Bloomberg on match-fixing
Link to more on match-fixing
Link to snooker match-fixing story
Link to tennis match-fixing story
Link to Past Blast piece on brawls
Link to Pont Past Blast source
Link to more on Pont
Link to Pont’s wiki
Link to Pont’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Chris Hanel’s Twitter
Link to Chris Hanel’s website
Another link to listener voting form

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Christian Walker had to wait for an opportunity. Drafted as a first baseman by the Orioles out of the University of South Carolina in 2012, he came up through Baltimore’s system at the same time that Chris Davis was bashing home runs on a regular basis. Then he found himself with a team where the player ensconced at his position was even better: In 2017 and ’18, Walker was buried behind Paul Goldschmidt on the Diamondbacks’ depth chart. When he celebrated his 28th birthday in March 2019, he had all of 61 big league games under his belt.

Opportunity finally came that season — Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals over the winter — and Walker didn’t waste it. Displaying the plus power that has remained his calling card, he went deep 29 times and logged a .348 OBP and a .476 slugging percentage. He’s an even better hitter now, heading into the current campaign on the heels of a 2022 season that saw him go deep 36 times with a 122 wRC+.

More than opportunity was behind the slugger’s breakthrough. Six years ago, he began an evolution that has turned him what he is today: a bona fide hitting nerd. Walker discussed that transformation prior to a recent spring training game.

———

David Laurila: You had a breakthrough season in 2019. Was that mostly a matter of opportunity, or was it more about adjustments you’d made?

Christian Walker: “A little bit of both. Some of it was diving into the hitting side of things, the mechanics. I’m a tinkerer at heart, so it’s fun for me to think about new things and try to unlock something. But to be honest, it’s really about being surrounded by a great staff. They know where my head goes when I want to work on something and start asking questions. It’s good to have guys like [hitting coach] Damion Easley around to keep me competitive and less mechanical.

“That said, the whole conversion started in 2015 when I got introduced to a hitting guy back in Pennsylvania. Jon Walton is at Diamond Dreams Baseball Academy, and he’s shown me this whole other world of hitting. We grew up in similar baseball circles — I’m from just outside of Philly — and he really understands the data side of hitting. It’s helpful for me to have somebody to filter the helpful stuff from the getting-lost-in-the-weeds conversations.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals have put themselves in a bit of a bind. They take sustainability seriously, building to compete both now and tomorrow. They never rebuild, never go all in, and always balance the present and future responsibly. If your goal is to win forever, you have to think about more than just the next year when you make a decision. For all that focus on long-term planning, though, they have a lackluster rotation, and it’s slated to get a lot worse after this year.

Of St. Louis’ top five starting options, only one, Steven Matz, came into the spring under contract for 2024. That might not be a problem if there were a heaping helping of starting pitching prospects knocking on the door to the major league clubhouse, but there aren’t. Gordon Graceffo isn’t far off, and if you’re willing to do a lot of projecting, Tink Hence might be major league ready before too long, but the up-and-down fifth starters and swingmen with live arms that other teams use to bulk up their starting rotation in times of need don’t really exist here.

Now, the Cardinals have two starters under contract for 2024 after signing Miles Mikolas to a contract extension that will pay him $40 million for the 2024 and ’25 seasons, as Derrick Goold first reported. That doesn’t exactly create a complete 2024 starting rotation, but it’s twice as many pitchers as St. Louis had before last Friday. Bam, problem solved! Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the offseason when it’s time for one of my favorite/most hated preseason traditions: my attempt to predict breakouts and busts. Since any breakouts or busts beyond what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a high probability of me looking pretty silly — something writers try to avoid. Let’s start by looking back at how smart I was last year… or how foolish:

First, from the comments in the hitter articles, there’s still some lingering confusion on what I mean by a breakout or bust. When I pick a player to break out or bust, I’m basing this relative to the general expectations as I perceive them, not relative to the previous season’s performance. For example, Joey Gallo is a bust not because I think he’ll be worse than last season, but because I think he’ll be worse than those baked-in expectations; there has been a lot of speculation that the shift will save him, and I don’t think that’s true. You see this on the financial markets quite a bit, when the market reacts negatively to good news that’s not as good as what was already priced into the valuations, and vice-versa. Also remember, that this isn’t necessarily me versus ZiPS; sometimes ZiPS agrees with me, and sometimes it angrily disagrees, or at least it would if I didn’t have the power to delete it from existence.

Back to business. Kikuchi was one of my worst breakout picks ever, and while I was correct that his BABIP and strikeout rates would bounce back from the second half of 2021, I missed his overall command being significantly worse, the slider being an ultra-disaster, and the resulting awful season. Howard ended up in the minors after a horrific opening week, and while he pitched well in the minors, I’m certainly not going to claim any victory based on translations! I’m still not sure what to make about Rodriguez’s season, which featured a ribcage strain and a mysterious stint on the restricted list thanks to persona/family reasons. Graterol pitched well, but he’s still not hitting the strikeout rates I think his stuff could be giving him.

On the plus side, McKenzie was solid, Suarez became one of the better relievers in the league after that first rough patch, and Luzardo did, in fact, have his walks under control. I thought Cease would be a serious Cy Young contender and he was; I’m still fuming that he didn’t make the All-Star Game.

Without further ado, let’s get to the picks, and may the baseball fates have mercy on my soul. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, we looked at the teams in the bottom half of the league’s rotations. Now to close out the positional power rankings, we look at the game’s best.

Welcome to the last installment of our positional power rankings (well, other than tomorrow’s summary post). We’ve saved the best for last, whether you’re looking for total projected WAR or stars named. The best pitchers in baseball are increasingly pitching together, leading to two- and even three-star team-ups that dot the top of our rankings. It’s still an overall squad ranking, though, which means the teams that emerge on top combine stars with depth that can chip in either to the back of the rotation or higher up if injuries demand it.

Oh, yeah: injuries play a big part in this year’s list. Whether it’s the Yankees and their strange mix of depth and uncertainty, the Rangers signing a trio of talented but oft-injured starters, or the Brewers hoping to get enough innings from the top end of their rotation to buy time to figure out the bottom, how the depth chart shakes out and how many innings the top starters pitch will determine who ends up getting the most out of their starters this year. It’s not even just injuries to stars; health matters for depth options too, as teams invariably find out when they’re calling James Shields in August to see if he’s available. Read the rest of this entry »

Do you want to see baseball’s brightest young talents get a chance on the biggest stage? Do you want teams to care more about winning now than saving a few bucks six years down the road? If so, you probably had a good weekend. Anthony Volpe, 21 years old and the no. 11 prospect on the FanGraphs Top 100, has made the Yankees out of camp. Jordan Walker, 20 years old and the no. 12 prospect in baseball, has likewise made the Cardinals and will figure into an intriguing outfield rotation. Let us rejoice and be glad.

Jeff Passan summed up the news from the weekend thusly: “Service-time manipulation still exists. But new CBA rules that incentivize teams to start the year with top prospects are working.”

Those rules, which came into force a year ago, reward teams that promote high-performing prospects early. The specific mechanism, which ties top-100 prospect lists and BBWAA award voting to cash bonuses for players and draft pick bonuses for teams, has its issues, but the intent is good. Service time manipulation is black-letter illegal under the CBA, but in practical terms it’s been practically impossible to prove — so much so that executives can talk openly about doing it without fear of repercussion. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we ranked baseball’s bullpens. Today, we turn our attention to the starters, beginning with the rotations that project in the bottom half of the league.

The starting pitching pool is tightening once again. This year’s bottom half features four teams with a 40% or better chance at making the playoffs, including a pair of projected division winners. That isn’t because those teams are overrated and have bad staffs, either, but rather that there is a tight middle class of rotations in the league right now. The teams ranked ninth through 20th are separated by just 3 WAR, with the American League having eight of those clubs. The National League has an intriguing group of teams at 21st-24th that are all a breakout or two away from joining that middle class. Even the very bottom got a boost this year, as last year’s 30th-ranked club (Arizona) checked in with just 5.8 projected WAR while this year’s 30th-ranked Nationals are more than a win clear of that mark at 7.1 WAR. Both leagues have their bottom feeders, with the National League getting the 29th and 30th ranked squads and the American League checking in with the next four. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about prospects who have (Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe) and haven’t (Grayson Rodriguez, Brett Baty) made Opening Day rosters and MLB’s player-centric PSAs about the new rules, then complete their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Atlanta Braves (15:07) with Grant McAuley of 92.9 The Game, and the Colorado Rockies (53:50) with Danielle Allentuck of The Denver Gazette, plus a Past Blast from 1986 (1:26:07), trivia answers (1:30:00), a Stat Blast (1:31:34) about the biggest WAR gaps between Opening Day starters, the worst pitchers ever to start on Opening Day, and the best pitchers and hitters never to start on Opening Day, and a postscript (1:41:09).

Audio intro: Benny and A Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)”
Audio interstitial: Simon Waldram, “What Were You Thinking?”
Audio outro: Benny and A Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)”

Link to MLBTR on Volpe
Link to MLBTR on Walker
Link to Mains on Cardinals PECOTA
Link to MLBTR on Turang
Link to MLBTR on Baty/Vientos
Link to FG post on Vientos
Link to MLBTR on Rodriguez
Link to Elias on Rodriguez
Link to Ben on 2022 OD promotions
Link to Ben on 2022 debuts
Link to MLB rules PSA hub
Link to Snell/Anderson spot
Link to Vogelbach/Showalter spot
Link to Cranston spot
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FG payroll breakdown
Link to Braves offseason tracker
Link to Braves depth chart
Link to MLB Pipeline rankings
Link to From The Diamond
Link to Rockies offseason tracker
Link to Rockies depth chart
Link to Sam’s Rockies essay
Link to article on hangover effect
Link to article on curing the hangover
Link to Sarris on McMahon
Link to Danielle’s author archive
Link to Past Blast source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Braves-Rockies trivia answers
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet 1
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet 2
Link to article about LBJ’s first pitch
Link to Brown/Cole source 1
Link to Brown/Cole source 2
Link to Brown/Cole source 3
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to Woodward on changeups
Link to EW on seam-shifted wake
Link to Forbes valuations
Link to Mains on Forbes data

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With baseball’s time of game issue resolved (I say with just a hint of hyperbole), MLB’s battle with sticky substances is back to being a top priority for the league offices, or so we can gather from the latest league-wide memo on the subject. After the first crackdown mid-season in 2021, we saw a pronounced dip in spin rates and spin-to-velocity ratio across baseball, an apparent sign that pitchers were responding to the league’s concerns. When the league renewed its commitment to inspecting pitchers at the start of the 2022 season, this impact appeared to persist through the early spring. But as the season went on, it was well-reported that league-wide rates began to creep back up, nearing pre-crackdown levels by August of last season.

While in 2021, two pitchers were issued the 10-game suspension MLB had promised in the event of a transgression, there were no such violations in 2022, only this weird moment between Madison Bumgarner and umpire Dan Bellino and this high-profile ear massage for Joe Musgrove courtesy of Buck Showalter in the deciding game of the NL Wild Card Series. But the league has taken note of the elevated rates and now means business: umpires are being empowered to check pitchers randomly and at will, urged to increase their scrutiny in “frequency and scope.” The memo seems to say: “no, seriously, please stop doing that.” Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Kyle Kishimoto kicked off our reliever rankings. Now we’ll take a look at the bullpens projected to be baseball’s best.

There are some positions for which a cleaner, wider gap exists between the top teams and the bottom, where we can more definitively say that some teams are better than others. For instance, the combination of talent and depth that the Blue Jays have at the catching position separates them from the rest of baseball. Relief pitching is not one of these positions. Sure, we have the bullpens ranked, and you can see their statistical projections above and below, but be sure to notice how thin the margins tend to be here, and know that relief inning sample sizes are small enough that this is where WAR is the least good at properly calibrating impact and value. Things like managerial usage, depth, and roster flexibility tend to play a huge role in the way bullpens perform throughout a season, and those are factors we can’t totally control for here. Read the rest of this entry »