This is Ryan Blake’s first piece as a contributor for FanGraphs. He is a former newspaper reporter in the Inland Northwest and a current writer for Lookout Landing, where his work on the batter’s eye at T-Mobile Park was nominated for a 2026 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award.
A bottom-ranked pitching staff got a little deeper this weekend.
Zack Littell and the Nationals have agreed on a one-year contract, as several outlets reported Sunday. The price tag is currently unknown, though the deal includes a mutual option for 2027. Littell, 30, ranked next-to-last on our Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. As it happens, he is also next-to-last to sign (only Lucas Giolito remains available).
Littell threw a career high 186.2 innings in 2025 across 32 starts for the Rays and Reds. Only 10 pitchers threw more innings last year. His 3.81 ERA was above average among qualified starters, and his 4.2% walk rate was the best in the majors. On the other hand, his 4.88 FIP, 17.1% strikeout rate, and 1.74 HR/9 each ranked in the bottom five. It was a mix of strengths and weaknesses that, taken together, made him the 88th-most valuable starting pitcher by WAR — useful depth for most organizations. Read the rest of this entry »
Charles LeClaire and Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA Today Network via Imagn Images
This offseason, I’ve taken high-level looks at the offseason decisions made by the New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox. It’s been a popular series, so today, I’m going to use the same framework to offer a holistic evaluation of the Brewers. As a refresher, here’s how I’ve been thinking about the exercise:
“How should we evaluate a front office, particularly in the offseason when we don’t have games to look at? I’ve never been able to arrive at a single framework. That’s only logical. If there were one simple tool we could use to evaluate the sport, baseball wouldn’t be as interesting to us as it is. The metrics we use to evaluate teams, and even players, are mere abstractions. The goal of baseball – winning games, or winning the World Series in a broad sense – can be achieved in a ton of different ways. We measure a select few of those in most of our attempts at estimating value, or at figuring out who “won” or “lost” a given transaction. So today, I thought I’d try something a little bit different.”
I won’t be offering a single grade. Instead, I’m going to assess the decisions that Matt Arnold and the Brewers made across three axes. The first is Coherence of Strategy. If you make a win-now trade, but then head into the season with a gaping hole on your roster, that’s not a coherent approach. It’s never quite that simple in the real world, but good teams make sets of decisions that work toward the same overarching goal. Read the rest of this entry »
OOPSY peak projections for all minor and major league players are now available for FanGraphs Members.
I’ve been publishing current season OOPSY projections since 2025. They broadly fit in with the other FanGraphs systems in terms of methodology (and accuracy), though like all projection systems, they have their own methodological quirks. OOPSY makes use of its own aging curves, major league equivalencies, park factors, league scoring environment factors, regression, and recency weights to project players. For those interested in learning more, the OOPSY introduction, 2025 review, and recent Top 100 Prospects list provide a more detailed overview of my methodology.
Since 2022, OOPSY peak projections have been featured on Scout the Statline and, since 2024, they have also been featured on RotoGraphs, where I’ve used them to generate fantasy-oriented top prospect lists. Last month, after incorporating defense into the projections using our prospect team’s work on The Board, I published OOPSY’s first top prospect list with a real-life focus, ranking prospects by peak projected WAR. Read the rest of this entry »
If there’s something even more satisfying than spending your hard-earned money, it’s spending someone else’s money that you didn’t earn. When we’re talking baseball, unless you’re an extremely high-net-worth individual who can casually spend hundreds of millions of dollars — if this describes you, call me and we can totally hang out or something — you only have the option to spend other people’s cash. I mean, I haven’t technically asked American Express to up my credit limit to $300 million, but I’m guessing the answer would be no. Every year around this time, I make a whole piece out of it, naming seven players I think teams should attempt to sign to long-term contracts now, rather than waiting until later. There are some additional complications, of course, with a lockout likely coming after this season, but teams and players could be willing to act with more urgency to sign contracts now before all the uncertainty ahead of them.
I’ve (hopefully) chosen seven players whose possible extensions would benefit both the player and the team, as all good contracts ought to do. I’ve included the up-to-date ZiPS projections for each player, as well as the contract that ZiPS thinks each player should get, though that doesn’t necessarily mean I think the player will end up with that figure or even sign an extension. Read the rest of this entry »
Collin Snider is with Chicago looking to recapture what he had two seasons ago with Seattle. Currently in camp with the Cubs, the 30-year-old right-hander was a pleasant surprise for the Mariners in 2024, logging a 1.94 with a 27.8% strikeout rate over 42 relief outings comprising 41-and-two-thirds innings. Last year was a different story. Hampered by a flexor strain and unable to get back on track, Snider struggled to the tune of a 5.47 ERA across 24 appearances in the majors, then posted an even uglier 8.06 ERA across 25 games with Triple-A Tacoma. Cut loose by Seattle in November, he subsequently inked a deal with the Cubs in December.
Despite the dismal results, Snider wasn’t without suitors. He had options — every team can use more pitching — and in the case of the Cubs, he also had connections. Tyler Zombro, the NL Central club’s Vice President of Pitching Strategy, previously worked at Tread Athletics, where Snider trained in previous offseasons. As the erstwhile Vanderbilt Commodore put it, “That really steered my decision. I like the way the pitching development is here.”
Asked about his poor 2025 performance, Snider pointed to how his injury contributed to bad mechanical habits that resulted in a drop in velocity, as well as “pitch shapes that weren’t the same.” He knew what was happening, but correcting it was another matter.
“I was very rotational, throwing too side-to-side, whereas I need to be north-south,” Snider said. “Side-to-side made the velo go down, because I couldn’t get behind the baseball. I was aware of what was going on, but I didn’t know why I was doing it, or how to make the adjustment quickly. It ended up being one of those things where I needed the offseason to straighten it out.”
Snider averaged 92.5 mph with his four-seamer last season, whereas in the prior two years that number was 94.2 and 95.3. His sweeper was also impacted by his delivery being out of sync. Read the rest of this entry »
MIAMI — Mere seconds after the ball left his bat in the bottom of the sixth inning, Junior Caminero was booking it around the bases, euphoria smothering all sense of reason. You see, he’d just tattooed a two-run homer to straightaway center field to give the Dominican Republic the lead in its opening game of the World Baseball Classic, and even though nobody could possibly get him out, the 22-year-old slugger couldn’t contain himself.
He sprinted so fast toward second base that his helmet flew off. He skipped to third, where he seemed to finally realize that he didn’t have to run. He paused and gestured toward the Dominican fans behind the dugout, then pranced home.
It was one of the most electric home run celebrations in the history of the World Baseball Classic, a moment of catharsis after five and a half bewildering innings. The blast snapped the Dominican squad out of its temporary daze, as one of the most lethal lineups ever assembled pummeled Nicaragua’s pitchers for the remainder of the game. The final score of 12-3 didn’t reflect the chaos of what could have been. Up until that point, the Dominicans were getting outplayed by a vastly inferior Nicaragua team, whose leadoff batter, Chase Dawson, is from Northern Indiana and has never played affiliated baseball; it was only last year that he established residency in the country while playing winter ball there. Read the rest of this entry »
Hello from loanDepot Park in Miami, where I am covering Pool D of the World Baseball Classic. In the two games here Friday, Venezuela beat the Netherlands, 6-2, and the Dominican Republic defeated Nicaragua, 12-3. I am writing about those two games in a separate piece that will go live later today. You can find all of our WBC preview stories, as well as our coverage throughout the tournament, on the blog roll here.
Of course, those were just two of the eight games that took place on Friday. (Well, Friday in the United States, anyway.) Elsewhere in the WBC, Team Japan was every bit as dominant as expected in the first game of its title defense, blowing out Taiwan 13-0 in seven innings. Shohei Ohtani went 3-for-4, with his grand slam getting Japan on the board and kicking off a 10-run second inning. Cuba opened the action from Pool A in San Juan, Puerto Rico, with a 3-1 win over Panama. Puerto Rico, despite being without many of its best players because of insurance issues, shut out Colombia, 5-0, in the second game of that pool. Over in Houston for Pool B, Great Britain kept things tight with a superior Mexican team for the first seven innings before Mexico exploded for three runs in the eighth and four more in the ninth to win, 8-2. Then, in the second game at Daikin Park, Team USA routed Brazil, 15-5, in one of the oddest-looking blowout box scores that I can recall. The leadoff batter for Brazil, Lucas Ramirez, son of Manny, hit more home runs (2) than the entire United States team. The lone U.S. homer came when Aaron Judge a two-run shot in the first inning. The key difference in the game was the Americans drew 17 walks while issuing only one. Later, back in Tokyo for the final game of the night, a matchup of 0-2 teams, Taiwan trounced Czechia, 14-0, in seven innings.
We’ll be talking more about the World Baseball Classic in today’s mailbag, when we answer your questions about the future Hall of Famers playing in this year’s tournament, as well as the Dominican Republic’s chances of contending for the title with Japan, the United States, and Pool D rival, Venezuela. Also in today’s mailbag, we’ll look at the best baseball birthdays and honor Bill Mazeroski with the all-time Az team. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »
After slipping from 89 wins and a trip to the National League Championship Series in 2024 to 83 wins and the short straw in a tiebreaker for a Wild Card berth in 2025, the Mets have a new look to their outfield thanks to an active offseason, some position changes, and an astute draft pick. While the right field job has yet to be settled, several players battling for time at the position have put their best foot forward during the first two weeks of exhibition season, with the two who figure most prominently in the team’s plans homering earlier this week. On Wednesday, top prospect Carson Benge hit his first home run of the spring in an exhibition game against Team Israel, and on Thursday, Brett Baty went deep against the Nationals while making his debut in right field, a continuation of his effort to expand his defensive repertoire.
Meanwhile, MLB.com beat reporter Anthony DiComo summarized last week’s highlights:
It's been quite the week for the Mets' right-field competition.
Tuesday: Mike Tauchman homered in his first Grapefruit League at-bat.
Thursday: Carson Benge went 3-for-3, and Tyrone Taylor hit a three-run homer.
No spring training result should be taken at face value given the varying levels of competition, and that’s especially true before people have been warned about the Ides of March, but the whole situation is worth a closer look. Read the rest of this entry »
The World Baseball Classic is officially back! We’re been running preview content for the last two weeks, but now that the tournament is actually underway, you’ve got to pick a team to root for. You may even have to pick one team from each of the four pools. To help you choose a your favorite, I’ll be offering a reason to cheer for each of the 20 teams in the field. This is our last installment. Click the links below to read the previous entries:
Brazil is the clear underdog of Pool B. The team has got a tough road ahead of it, and its roster doesn’t feature a single major leaguer. What it does have, though, is pedigree. If you’ve watched Field of Dreams enough times to believe that baseball is the game of fathers and sons, then this is the team for you. Brazil boasts Joseph Contreras (the son of José Contreras), Lucas Ramirez (the son of Manny Ramirez), and Dante Bichette Jr. (you’ll never guess who his dad is). Also, in its final qualifier, Brazil defeated Germany, hanging a loss on pitcher Jaden Agassi, son of tennis legends Andre Agassi and Steffi Graf.
Now 33, Bichette was a first-round pick of the Yankees back in 2011. He last played affiliated ball in 2019, and he’s now training youth ballplayers in Los Angeles. He may have another gear when suiting up for Brazil. He batted .375 in the qualifiers, and back in the 2016 WBC, he went 4-for-10 in three games with a double, a triple, and two walks.
Ramirez is just 19. The Angels drafted him in the 17th round in 2024. Last year, he earned a promotion to High-A after running a 115 wRC+ in the complex league. He may not be the second coming of his father just yet, but he did have a 12% walk rate in the complex, too. Despite his youth, he batted .385 in the qualifiers.
Contreras is the most exciting son on the team. The 17-year-old right-hander is the youngest player in the entire tournament. He’s a high-school senior who’s committed to Vanderbilt, though that commitment may well get tested. He’s already listed at 6-foot-4, just like his dad, and he’s a serious prospect. “He has legitimate first-round upside,” wrote Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America, which ranked Contreras 34th in its preseason draft rankings. He can touch 98 mph with his fastball, which sits 92-96. He also throws a vulcan-grip forkball and a mid-80s slider that Chiarelli said “flashes plus.” Contreras didn’t play in the qualifiers last year, because, uh, he was 16. Next year, he’ll be old enough to vote, but Friday night, he may well be facing off against Aaron Judge.
Great Britain
How times have changed. Three years ago, the story for Great Britain was all about Harry Ford, the 20-year-old catching phenom with the big bat. He’d hit. 455 with three home runs in three games during the qualifiers. Then, in the actual WBC, fresh off batting .413 in the Arizona Fall League, he batted .308 with two homers and a double in four games.
Today, a fair bit of Ford’s prospect shine has faded. He’s still just 23, plenty young for a catcher, but he was blocked by Cal Raleigh in Seattle, so he was traded to the Nationals during the offseason. But let’s not forget that he’s likely to become Washington’s primary catcher, and he’s still the 74th-ranked prospect in the game, with 50 future values across every tool category. He’s athletic, he’s got a great approach at the plate, and he’s improved his receiving enough that he should be an average defender. He’s about to sink or swim in the majors.
Ford could absolutely be the star of this team again, but he’s got more company this year. Joining him are major leaguers like Tristan Beck, Trayce Thompson, and Nate Eaton (who should really be pitching in this tournament, if you ask me), along with a host of minor leaguers. The 38-year-old Vance Worley is back for one last ride, nine years removed from his final major league appearance. But Great Britain also has a genuine star in Jazz Chisholm Jr. The Bahamian Bomber is fresh off a 2025 season in which he set career highs with 31 home runs and 4.4 WAR. This could be his team now.
Italy
Maybe this is because I just wrote a whole article about Jac Caglianone, but the obvious reason to root for Team Italy is because it’s fun to walk around your house pronouncing all the names the way you imagine an actual Italian speaker would pronounce them. Will I be cheering as hard as I can for Gordon Graceffo? You bet I will.
Team Italy has a solid roster with enough major league regulars to fill out a whole lineup. But I’m still in it for the big boys. You know who I mean: Caglianone and his fellow Royal Vinnie Pasquantino, the 6-foot-3 Italian Nightmare himself. The 6-foot-4 Caglianone already has some nicknames – Cags, Jachtani, JacHammer, and the Vacuum, according to Baseball Reference – and for that matter, Jac is a nickname, too. But I think we can agree that we haven’t found a winner yet, and we definitely haven’t found one that makes the most of his Italian heritage.
For now, we’ll just call him the Italian Daymare. Is it derivative? Very much so. Is it terrible? Yes, it’s that, too. But do the math here. The Pasquatch (man, that guy has a lot of good nicknames) haunts you during the evening hours. The Cagsquatch (just go with it) haunts you during the daytime. It’s 24 hours of terror. You’ve got nowhere to hide. When will you get your precious restorative sleep? Every time you close your eyes you see two hulking lefties with plus bat speed sending flaming fragments of a baseball over the right field wall. Together, they’re a listed 495 pounds of panic (or 225 kilos, if you’re in Italy).
Mexico
Look, as long as Randy Arozarena is playing for Team Mexico, Randy Arozarena is the reason to be excited about Team Mexico. The Cuba native has always come up huge under the bright lights, and he takes playing for his adopted country very seriously. He has a career 162 wRC+ in the playoffs, and in the 2023 WBC, he batted .450 with nine RBI in just six games. You might also recall that he crossed his arms kind of a lot.
Arozarena is by no means the only fun player on the team. Andrés Muñoz’s cat is a social media star, and Team Mexico leads the WBC in players named Nacho. More importantly, it also leads in diminutive players who have entertaining running styles.
Alek Thomas is 5-foot-9, and his short legs seem to churn up the outfield grass when he tracks down a ball in the gap. The 6-foot Jarren Duran always plays at 100%, and his bandy-legged gait and full-body tilt when he turns a corner have earned him the nickname, “The Lizard.” It’s a joy to watch the 5-foot-8 Alejandro Kirk motor around the bases. As a bonus, both Duran and Kirk have severe cases of karate chop hands when they run. Still, none of them does this.
United States
Aaron Judge has taken some heat for the lackluster speech he gave to his teammates earlier this week, but not all of this was Judge’s fault. First, it wasn’t his idea. Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes pushed him to make the address in spite of his legendary ability to speak to the media without saying anything at all. Second, even if the speech had been a bit more substantive and delivered with a modicum of intonation, the setting wasn’t exactly conducive to rousing oratory. Everything about it felt artificial. The team was in full uniforms, plus sneakers. Judge was addressing his teammates in some sort of conference room with a wall of officials and reporters behind him and a cameraman snapping away. He wasn’t even standing in front of the team. He was off to the side of the room, and studies have proven that it’s physically impossible to be whipped into a frenzy while developing a crick in your neck.
More important than the context, though, is that people are misinterpreting the content. Here’s Judge’s grand finale:
So sacrifice for your family at home, you’re sacrificing for your country, and you’re sacrificing for the brothers in the trenches with you every single day. And that’s one thing I want us to do, fellas. I want to die on that field with you. We’re down, we’re beat up a little bit, man? Lean into each other, man. We’re going to lay it all on the line. And if we do that, we’re bringing the gold home.
Critics have interpreted Judge’s words as a military analogy, which would have been both crass and colossally tone deaf considering what the United States military is doing at this very moment. They’ve wondered what exactly these superstars are sacrificing, aside from a couple weeks of spring training. They’ve wondered whether the winner of the WBC now gets gold medals, too, or whether Judge just spent too much time watching the Olympics.
The critics have it wrong. Judge wasn’t channeling Henry V. That was just a metaphor and a clever bit of double entendre. He was actually talking strategy. Team USA is going to sacrifice its way through this tournament. Since it seems to have gone over so many heads already, let me lay out the Cliff’s Notes for you:
So sacrifice [bunt] for your family at home, you’re sacrificing [flies] for your country, and you’re sacrificing [more bunts] for the brothers in the trenches [fancy word for dugout] with you every single day. And that’s one thing I want us to do, fellas. I want [our bunts] to die on that field with you. We’re down, we’re beat up a little bit, man? Lean into [inside pitches and get hit], man. We’re going to lay it all [our bodies, and also all the bunts] on the line. And if we do that [hit and run], we’re bringing the gold [still unclear] home.
Get it now? Judge and his comrades-in-bats are going to lay bunts on the line. They’re going to safety squeeze and suicide squeeze. They’re going to give away outs like nobody’s business. Manager Mark DeRosa assembled a monster lineup of power hitting superstars as a colossal fake out. They’re going to small ball their way to… some sort of gold something. And even though Judge announced it in a speech, the world will never see it coming.
