Oneil Cruz’s fractured fibula is the biggest story surrounding the Pirates. On the positive side, the return of Andrew McCutchen to the fold is neat, and Tuesday night’s walk-off home run by Ji Hwan Bae was pretty cool. To these eyes, however, the most noteworthy thing about Pittsburgh thus far — even beyond the fact that the team’s 7–4 start is its best since 2018 — has been the torrid play of Bryan Reynolds. The 28-year-old outfielder has been the one of the game’s hottest hitters, and he’s done it as progress toward a contract extension has ground to a halt just when it seemed that a deal to keep him in black and gold was within reach.

Reynolds ended last weekend as one of seven players who had collected hits in every game this season (José Abreu, José Ramírez, Nolan Arenado, Randy Arozarena, Bryson Stott, and Jordan Walker were the others). He and Abreu both went hitless in Monday night’s Pirates-Astros contest, and by the close of play Tuesday, only the streaks of Stott and Walker remained intact. Still, season-opening hitting streaks come and go pretty quickly; of more interest is that Reynolds has been putting up eye-opening numbers. Through Tuesday, he’s hitting .356/.367/.778, leading the NL in slugging percentage and homers (five) and ranking fifth in WAR (0.7) and wRC+ (184). Mind you, those numbers looked even more impressive before his 1-for-8 on Monday and Tuesday nights, but the sudden itch to write about Adam Duvall, an even hotter hitter in this young season, going down with a wrist injury got in my way.

For Duvall, Reynolds, and everyone else, we’re still in Small Sample Theater territory, but as with the Red Sox slugger, some underlying numbers have me wondering if we’re seeing real improvements to his game. For starters, like Duvall, he’s cut his strikeout rate dramatically: Last year he struck out 23% of the time, and for his career he’s at 21.5%, but this year, that’s down to 10.2%. Given that strikeout rates stabilize around 60 PA and that Reynolds is at 49, this could wind up being noteworthy, though unlike Duvall, his swinging-strike rate hasn’t fallen quite so dramatically, going from 12.9% last year to 11.9% this year. His 31.1% chase rate is down 4.5 points from last year, when he tried to hack his way out of a slow start, and is just half a point lower than his career mark, but even so, he’s walking in just 4.1% of his plate appearances, less than half of his 9.7% career mark.

All of this translates to more contact than usual for Reynolds, and he’s making the most of it. Seriously: He’s hitting the ball in the air much more than ever, and his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are beyond anything in the Bryan Reynolds catalogue. Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Walker, the Cardinals’ phenomenal young outfielder, is off to a scintillating start to the season. In his first 10 games, he’s hitting an impressive .326/.370/.512, comfortably better than league average. The Cardinals promoted Walker to the majors despite a positional logjam, and he’s done nothing to make their job easier; he looks like a foundational part of their future. And oh yeah, maybe you’ve heard, he’s on quite the hitting streak.

You probably didn’t come here for a lecture from me, but here’s a quick one about hitting streaks. I think they’re really cool. I think it’s amazing that Walker is now in second place for the longest hitting streak to start a career for players under 21 years old, and that he passed Ted Williams for that honor. That’s awesome, and I’m sure that he’ll treasure that memory for years to come. Eleven games! It’s truly amazing. I just don’t think it’s useful for my purposes, which is to wonder how good Jordan Walker is. Here’s one example of a hit that kept Walker’s streak alive, the sole hit he recorded on April 3:

That’s clearly a hit, and I’d even say that it’s a good piece of hitting. What does it have to do with how well Walker is adjusting to the majors? Not much, I’d venture to say. The streak is a tremendous achievement, it’s super cool, and I don’t think it’s worth mentioning beyond that. Read the rest of this entry »

After just two weeks of play, there are several hitters off to scorching hot starts. Some are expected; for example, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Trout all have xwOBAs over .460 so far. Given their vast history of offensive prowess, it’s not surprising to see them put together a stretch like this. But if you look near the top of the xwOBA leaderboard, you might do a double take when you see some of the names aside those aforementioned stars. Without larger batted ball samples, we may not be able to draw any concrete conclusions about the unexpected players, but there are some sticky traits that are worth paying attention to as the season develops.

For this exercise, I’m going to highlight four players that have caught my eye this season and who I’ll be watching over the next few months to see if they can keep up their early performance. The criteria for picking these players were relatively loose: It could be an under-the-radar bat that has impressed me, or a veteran who has reached a new height due to an interesting adjustment. With that said, let’s jump into it. Read the rest of this entry »

If you look atop the groundball rate leaderboard, you’ll see some of the usual suspects. Josh Bell and Masataka Yoshida have hit more than two-thirds of their batted balls on the ground this year, while Eric Hosmer and Jean Segura aren’t far behind. Bell, Hosmer, and Segura have been some of the most notable groundball hitters in the majors for years, while Yoshida was a groundball menace in Japan. Even at such an early point in the season, the groundball cream is rising to the top.

At the bottom of the leaderboard, the names are a little more surprising. Noted fly ball hitters Adam Duvall and Brandon Lowe are among the bottom 10, but there are also a handful of players you wouldn’t expect to see. One such player is Daulton Varsho.

Varsho has hit five groundballs this year, good for a 20% groundball rate. Only one qualified batter, Carlos Correa, has hit fewer balls on the ground. However, it was Varsho, and not Correa, who caught my eye, because of his extreme groundball numbers at the very beginning of the season. Over his first eight games, Varsho came to the plate 32 times and put 19 balls in play. Only one was a groundball. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a wave of injuries around MLB, affecting Oneil Cruz, Adam Duvall, Ian Anderson, and several other players, the Rays’ undefeated start, the hot starts of James Outman, Miguel Vargas, and Jason Heyward, the sensual stance of J.D. Davis, silly team celebrations, the Rocket City Trash Pandas’ no-hit loss, a downturn in pitch spin, the lack of a downturn in position player pitching, pickoff attempts and game theory, running out the clock on an intentional walk, whether the clock could change perceptions of MLB’s competence, the clock and concessions, a Royals OF shift, a ball-kid collision, a Ronald Acuña Jr. base grab, and more, plus a Past Blast (1:31:32) from 1992.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Fujiya & Miyagi, “Ankle Injuries/Electro Karaoke”

Link to Dan S. on Cruz
Link to video of Cruz slide
Link to story on Kelly
Link to Emma on bullpens in brawls
Link to Jay Jaffe on Duvall
Link to MLBTR on Anderson
Link to 2022 25 under 25
Link to Jay on the Rays
Link to Stathead on 10-0 starts
Link to Joe Sheehan on the Rays
Link to record career-starting streak
Link to Jay on L.A.’s outfield
Link to info on Heyward
Link to Davis thrust
Link to Angels homer helmet
Link to cheesehead celebration
Link to dong bong
Link to Baumann on the Trash Pandas
Link to Trash Pandas montage
Link to Grant on the Hawkins game
Link to Joe on position player pitching
Link to article on Eaton
Link to Ben on active pitcher limits
Link to Rob Arthur on spin
Link to Tango on pickoffs
Link to Rob Mains on stolen bases
Link to Manfred on concessions
Link to BA on concessions
Link to Crain’s on concessions
Link to article on concessions cutoffs
Link to Silver/Manfred on pace
Link to Sam on spectator attention
Link to Andrus shift violation
Link to Royals OF alignment
Link to Tango on the Royals’ results
Link to Tango on two-man outfields
Link to Ben C. on the Royals’ shift
Link to Chen’s pickoff attempts
Link to ball-kid collision
Link to ball-kid pace info
Link to Acuña base article
Link to breakaway bases
Link to bat-carrying article
Link to 1992 Past Blast source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to AP on warming study
Link to 2012 McCarver comments
Link to 2012 Nathan analysis
Link to 11-game record run differential

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On Saturday, Taylor Clarke was in quite the pickle. The Royals had tasked him with pitching the eighth inning of a tied ballgame against the Giants and it wasn’t going very well. Clarke allowed three consecutive singles to J.D. Davis, Joc Pederson, and Mike Yastrzemski, with each hit 104 mph or harder. The bases were loaded with no outs. The Giants were reading Clarke’s pitches incredibly well and he needed a solution, fast. Clearly, he found one. Clarke struck out the next three hitters in order, earning seven called or swinging strikes. Kansas City’s offense took the lead in the ninth and went on to complete the comeback victory. So what was special about the way Clarke got out of his jam? Of the 13 pitches he threw, not a single one was a fastball.

While there are many relievers who barely throw any fastballs, like Alex Colomé and Matt Wisler, Clarke isn’t one of them. He came up as a starter with Arizona throwing heaters about half the time. After being converted to the bullpen and experiencing a two-tick velocity spike, he kept up that fastball usage. Had Clarke randomly chosen pitches in line with his career averages (48.8% fastballs) during this three-batter stretch, the odds of him choosing secondaries 13 times in a row would be just .017%, or 1-in-6,000. But on Saturday, he turned to his best stuff and ended up with the best possible results.

The first hitter up with the bases loaded was infielder Thairo Estrada. Estrada likes to put balls in play, and with three ducks on the pond, balls in play often mean runs. In 2022, he combined to strike out and walk just 22.6% of the time, considerably below the league average of 30.6%. Clarke started off the at-bat with one of his two slider variants. This variant, which sits 87-90 mph with a few inches of horizontal break, has a hybrid cutter/slider shape, though he often throws it glove side just like his other, sweepier slider in the low-to-mid-80s. Clarke missed his spot and the pitch drifted over the plate, but Estrada watched it for a called strike. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, Brady Singer enjoyed a breakout season on the mound, making him a rare success story for a Royals development team that has squandered a ton of young pitching talent in recent years. They haven’t had trouble graduating pitchers into the majors; the problem has been helping them grow once they get there. So far, only Singer has made a true impact on the big league club, with fellow 2018 first-round picks Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic struggling in their limited time at the highest level. But if his first two starts this year are to be believed, Bubic might be joining Singer in that breakout tier.

Bubic’s start to spring training was delayed due to some lingering shoulder soreness, which meant his spot in the rotation was up in the air until just before Opening Day, when Lynch was shut down from throwing with his own shoulder issues. In 10.1 Cactus League innings, Bubic struck out 15 to go along with seven walks, but in his first start of the season on April 4 against the Blue Jays, he allowed just two runs in five innings of work, giving up seven hits and one walk with four strikeouts. That’s a good outing against a tough offense, particularly one loaded with right-handed mashers against the lefty.

Bubic’s second start on Sunday was the real eye-opener, though: six scoreless innings against the Giants with just two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts on his ledger, matching a career high. He had never earned more than 17 swinging strikes in a single start; he racked up 19 on Sunday and accomplished that feat in just 76 pitches. That 25% swinging-strike rate was easily the highest of any appearance in his career to go with a 43.4% CSW rate, also his best in any start.

Bubic looks like an entirely new pitcher, too. His velocity has increased across the board, his release point is completely different, his changeup has a new shape, and he introduced a new slider to his pitch mix. That’s a lot of things to track. Read the rest of this entry »

2:02

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, welcome to my weekly chat. We had a bit of a glitch on our end in publishing this so I’m going to give it a few minutes for the queue to fill. In the meantime, here’s my piece on Adam Duvall’s wrist injury, which has interrupted one of the majors’ hottest starts https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-lose-red-hot-adam-duvall-to-a-brok…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: And here’s yesterday’s piece on the Rays’ hot start (now 10-0) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-are-steamrolling-opponents-at-a-r…

2:08	Jay Jaffe: A turkey reuben and potato salad from Mile End Deli. Yes, i’d love to have their corned beef reuben or the smoked meat sandwich, but I gotta keep the red meat under control and this is still a 95th percentile sandwich

2:11

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think anybody believes the Cardinals will be the worst team in baseball this year; even in the NL four teams have worse run differentials than their -9. That said, Marmol’s handling of the Tyler O’Neill baserunning thing was a red flag that made me wonder if he needed a sour hardass show of authoritah because he’s losing the clubhouse. That was totally horseshit. We’ll see if it fits a pattern.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s no disputing that Spencer Torkelson had a disappointing rookie season. Drafted first overall by the Detroit Tigers in 2020 out of Arizona State University, the 23-year-old first baseman went into last year with sky-high expectations only to finish with a 76 wRC+ and just eight home runs in 404 plate appearances. Moreover, he was demoted to Triple-A in mid-July and proceeded to put up a middling .738 OPS with the Toledo Mud Hens before returning to Motown for the final month of the campaign.

Last February, our lead prospect analyst, Eric Longenhagen, had written that “Torkelson’s bat is his ticket to the big leagues, and it’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t think he’ll be a terrifying presence in the box for years to come.” Despite his abysmal debut, the potential for Torkelson to become that terrifying presence remains strong. Rejuvenated after an offseason of reflection, the confident slugger logged an impressive hard-hit rate during spring training — my colleague Davy Andrews wrote about it in late March — and he’s continued to scorch a fair number of balls in April, albeit without much to show for it; of the 12 balls he’s hit with an exit velocity of at least 98.2 mph, seven have gone for outs. Belying his slash line — a hard-luck .235/.250/.353 that seems bound to improve once squared-up balls start falling — his average exit velocity ranks in the 74th percentile, his max exit velocity in the 90th. Last Tuesday, Torkelson torched a 424-foot home run off of a 98.9-mph Ryne Stanek heater when the Tigers played in Houston.

Torkelson talked about his history as a hitter, and the keep-it-simple approach that comes with it, during spring training.

———

David Laurila: When did you learn to hit?

Spencer Torkelson: “Gosh. I learned at a pretty young age. I kind of just fell in love with hitting the ball over my backyard fence when I was two. I’d walk around asking everybody to throw to me. I’d say that my uncle and my dad had the biggest influence on my hitting. My dad always preached to use the whole field, and my uncle always preached quick hands, quick hips. I had a lot of repetitions with both of them and those things kind of clicked.” Read the rest of this entry »

No hitter in the majors has gotten off to a hotter start this season than Adam Duvall, who joined the Red Sox this past winter via free agency and is currently carrying a slugging percentage above 1.000. Unfortunately, the 34-year-old center fielder won’t be available to star in Small Sample Theater for awhile because on Sunday while diving for a ball, he fractured his left wrist.

Duvall injured himself attempting to catch a bloop off the bat of the Tigers’ Spencer Torkelson in the ninth inning of Sunday’s game. Charging in from center field, he slid and appeared to make the grab, but his glove hand hit the grass awkwardly as he rolled over, and the ball squirted loose. Torkelson was credited with a single, while Duvall came up clutching his wrist, the same one that he sprained last July 23 while playing for the Braves. That time, he jammed his wrist against the wall in pursuit of a Shohei Ohtani fly ball and needed season-ending surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath.

This time, Duvall was diagnosed with a distal radius fracture in his left wrist. Such injuries generally mean a loss of six to eight weeks, but the Red Sox haven’t announced a timeline. Duvall underwent additional testing to determine if he would need surgery to set the fracture or repair tissue damage, but manager Alex Cora told reporters after Monday’s loss to the Rays that he’ll avoid that. Read the rest of this entry »