Elly De La Cruz Does It Right

Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Elly De La Cruz is one-third of the way to an all-time season in Cincinnati.

De La Cruz collected his first triple of the season on Tuesday, ripping a middle-middle changeup from Jesús Luzardo into the gap in left-center at 103 mph. He later drew a walk to raise his wRC+ on the year to 147. His 2.6 WAR ranks third in the majors behind only Bobby Witt Jr. (3.1) and Shohei Ohtani (2.9). If the season ended today, De La Cruz would be the favorite to at least challenge Ohtani for the National League MVP:

NL WAR Leaders
Name WAR
Shohei Ohtani 2.9
Elly De La Cruz 2.6
Cristopher Sánchez 2.5
Matt Olson 2.4
Corbin Carroll 2.3
Drake Baldwin 2.2
Jacob Misiorowski 2.2
Otto Lopez 2.2
Brice Turang 2.1
Andy Pages 2.1
Jordan Walker 2.1
Xavier Edwards 2.1
Max Muncy 2.1

De La Cruz at the moment is on pace for 30 stolen bases, 38 home runs, and 8.9 WAR. The first two numbers aren’t all that notable, beyond our affinity for the nice round, rhythmic 30-30 label. Well, 38 homers would be a career high for De La Cruz, who topped out at 25 in 2024. But no, it’s the 8.9-WAR pace that’s caught my attention. That would tie him with George Foster in 1977 for the fifth-best Reds season ever — a leaderboard that goes back to 1882 — behind only Joe Morgan, who registered 11.0 WAR in 1975 and 9.5 WAR in both 1973 and 1976, and Johnny Bench, who put up 9.2 WAR in 1972. We simply haven’t seen a a performance this good in Cincinnati in 50 years. Read the rest of this entry »


A Bayesian Check-In On Our Playoff Odds at the Quarter-Season Mark

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

As the resident FanGraphs playoff odds watcher, I spend a lot of time looking at our playoff odds and trying to figure out both what they’re seeing and what they’re missing. Over the years, I’ve written many audits of how well our odds perform. Last fall, I described a Bayesian method that does slightly better than any of our existing models at predicting playoff teams. It’s particularly useful early in the season, when the headline FanGraphs mode (using projections) can be slow to pick up on new information and the season-to-date mode is prone to overreaction. A Bayesian filter does a good job balancing those two – or so I found last year.

If you’re looking for a detailed technical description of the way that I’m blending up our existing playoff projections to churn out different odds projections, you can find it at the bottom of the article. But first, let’s take a Bayesian trip through the league and highlight the divisions where reconsidering our odds in light of how much the results so far have diverged from preseason expectations matters the most.

AL East

AL East Playoff Odds
Team FG Playoff% S2D Playoff% Bayesian Playoff% Bayesian – FG
Yankees 98.3% 95.0% 96.9% -1.4%
Rays 90.5% 93.8% 92.6% 2.1%
Blue Jays 31.8% 29.5% 30.5% -1.3%
Red Sox 34.2% 23.5% 28.1% -6.1%
Orioles 20.4% 8.7% 13.8% -6.6%

Read the rest of this entry »


Miguel Vargas Has Been Abducted and Replaced by a Replicant. I Hope the Old Version Never Comes Back.

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

One of my favorite sticks to beat the White Sox with (and over the past few years, there have been plenty) has been the Erick Fedde trade of 2024.

You know the one: Chicago was en route to a record-breaking number of losses, and with the season in the tank, GM Chris Getz flipped three of his best-performing players — Michael Kopech, Tommy Pham, and Fedde — in a three-way deal with the Cardinals and Dodgers. The 2024 White Sox were enduring a lost season that redefined the term; trading those guys was obviously the right thing for Getz to do. My objection was the return.

The headliner for the White Sox was Miguel Vargas, who at the time was the Dodgers’ second-best utility infielder named Miguel, behind a 35-year-old for whom the Marlins had no need. The Dodgers not only got Kopech, they managed to finagle Tommy Edman, the best player in the deal, as well. Kopech immediately slotted in as a leverage reliever, Edman won NLCS MVP, and the Dodgers won the World Series. Read the rest of this entry »


Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 5/19/26

5:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody, sorry for the weirdness the last couple weeks.

5:00
Brendan Gawlowski: I was violently ill last Tuesday and skipped last week’s chat out of necessity

5:00
Brendan Gawlowski: This week I’m back in AZ and was flying down during the normal chat window

5:01
Brendan Gawlowski: So, expect this to be a little smaller and we probably won’t go as long as normal. But we’ll see where it takes us!

5:02
Hazmat Corntail: Anthony Eyanson is off to a fast start so far, and pitching tonight. He was 40+ after the draft could he be in the top 10 pitchers in next year’s 100?

5:02
Brendan Gawlowski: Working on the Red Sox list and, spoiler alert, he’ll be in the 50’s

Read the rest of this entry »


Timely Play Has Put the Padres in First Place

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

If you were perusing the Padres’ team stats, you might do a double-take when comparing your first impressions of their performances to date against their standing in the National League West. Fernando Tatis Jr. is slugging .273 and has yet to homer, Manny Machado’s batting average is below the Mendoza Line, and two of their five players with a wRC+ of at least 100 are part-timers. On the other side of the ball, just three of their starting pitchers have ERAs below 5.00, one of whom (Nick Pivetta) has been out since mid-April due to a flexor strain. While closer Mason Miller has been lights out, their higher-leverage relievers have not been uniformly dominant. And yet with all of this, the Padres took over first place in their division on Monday night, after Michael King and friends stifled the Dodgers, 1-0, at Petco Park, the season’s first game between the two teams.

Contending teams have become the expectation in San Diego despite near-constant instability, with the Padres claiming Wild Card spots in four of the past six seasons under three different managers, now all departed in favor of first-year skipper Craig Stammen. They raised their payroll as high as $255 million in 2023, third highest in the game, before cutting back dramatically in the wake of owner Peter Seidler’s death in November 2023 and a subsequent battle for control of the franchise among his survivors. This year’s projected $209 million payroll ranks ninth. Yet somehow through the turmoil — including the pending sale of the team to Chelsea Football Club co-owner José E. Feliciano and his wife Kwanza Jones — the Padres are giving the Dodgers another run for their money.

But how? As you might have guessed given those subpar stats I cited above, the Padres are playing well above their heads relative to their raw numbers. At 29-18, they’re 11 games above .500 despite outscoring opponents by just eight runs, 196-188. They’re a major league-high 4.6 wins above their Pythagorean-projected winning percentage of .519, and five wins above their BaseRuns-projected winning percentage of .510, second to only the Rays. Based on their per-game BaseRuns numbers, the Padres have overachieved on the offensive side, scoring 0.22 runs per game more than their expected 3.98, but they’ve underachieved slightly on the pitching side, allowing 0.1 runs per game more than their projected 3.90. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/19/26

12:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

12:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. Apologies for missing last week, as I was in the midst of my big Ted Turner/Bobby Cox tribute piece and didn’t have the bandwidth to pull this off.

12:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Before we get started, I need to note that we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. We’ll see how it goes. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on the Padres’ surprising spot in the standings — first place in the NL West — despite the underperformances of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and others which should go up while this chat is underway.

12:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Blake Snell heading for surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will be using the same NanoNeedle procedure as he used on Tarik Skubal — the Skubal Scope, as some are calling it — which could shave about a month off his recovery time https://blogs.fangraphs.com/everybody-whos-anybody-is-getting-loose-bo…

12:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: oh, and here’s that Turner/Cox thing. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ted-turner-1938-2026-and-bobby-cox-1941-20…

And now, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »


Red Sox Southpaw Tyler Samaniego Isn’t Perfect Anymore

Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Tyler Samaniego isn’t perfect anymore. After throwing 15 scoreless innings over his first 13 big league appearances, the left-hander was taken deep by Kyle Schwarber with a runner aboard in the eighth inning this past Thursday night as the Boston Red Sox fell to the Philadelphia Phillies, 3-1. The inevitable imperfection was followed by a double whammy. On Friday, Samaniego surrendered a 10th-inning walk-off two-bagger to Mike Yastrzemski — the only batter he faced — in a 3-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves. Flawless no more, he now has a still-stellar 1.17 ERA and a pair of losses over his first 15 outings.

His initial level of success was somewhat surprising, and the same could be said of the 27-year-old rookie having earned an opportunity to show his mettle in high-leverage situations. He was anything but a proven commodity at season’s start. As for his presence in the Red Sox bullpen, that wasn’t wholly unexpected. When he came to Boston as part of the five-player December deal that shipped “The Password” to the Pirates, Eric Longenhagen wrote that Samaniego was “fairly likely to play a role on Boston’s pitching staff in 2026… occupying a lefty specialist spot.”

Shortly before he suffered his first big league adversity, I approached the 2021 15th-round pick out of the University of South Alabama to learn more about him. I’d perused his stat sheet, seen him pitch a handful of times, and knew that he had undergone an internal brace procedure while in the minors, but that was about it. As such, I began by asking how he has progressed as a pitcher over the years. Read the rest of this entry »


Brayan Bello Is Going Through It

Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Things could be going better for Brayan Bello. I guess that’s true of most Red Sox players these days, but the right-hander is having an especially rough go of things. On Sunday, Bello took the decision in an 8-1 loss to the Braves, allowing seven earned runs in five innings pitched.

That kind of line doesn’t necessarily signal a terrible outing; sometimes a starter trudges along in quality-start territory before running into trouble late. A couple quick walks, then the bullpen lets a couple inherited runners score… three runs allowed over four innings can turn into seven runs in five innings in a flash.

That wasn’t the case here. Seven of the first 10 Braves hitters reached base; five of them scored. Manager Chad Tracy let Bello wear it until he’d reached five innings and 98 pitches. And it was Bello’s 27th birthday on Sunday, too. Usually you only hear “wear it” on a guy’s birthday in the context of a party hat or a new shirt. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Colorado Rockies – Multiple Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

Baseball Analytics Fellow
Baseball Analytics Associate


Baseball Analytics Fellow

ABOUT US

The Colorado Rockies Baseball Club is embracing the climb, committed to building a championship-caliber organization on the field, in the clubhouse, and throughout our business operations. Playing at altitude presents unique competitive challenges and opportunities, and we embrace innovation, collaboration, and evidence-based practices to support elite performance. Rooted in the traditions of America’s pastime, we operate with integrity, service, quality, and trust while striving to create an exceptional experience for our players, staff, and fans.

ABOUT THE ROLE

The Baseball Analytics Fellow will support Baseball Operations and Research & Development by preparing, analyzing, and communicating data-driven insights that inform game strategy, player evaluation, scouting, and player development processes. This role is designed for an early-career analyst with strong technical skills, intellectual curiosity, and a desire to apply quantitative methods to meaningful baseball questions.

In this role, you will work with analysts, coaches, scouts, and Baseball Operations leadership to develop reports, visualizations, models, and research outputs that are clear, timely, and actionable. The ideal candidate is highly autonomous, communicates frequently, manages up effectively, and is comfortable supporting fluctuating baseball-season workflows.

RESPONSIBILITIES

Advance Preparation & Game Strategy

  • Assist in the preparation, quality review, and distribution of advance scouting reports for upcoming opponents.
  • Monitor daily lineups, roster moves, transactions, and other league information to support game planning and analysis.
  • Conduct ad hoc research to inform game strategy, including analysis of ABS-related questions and comparisons across players, teams, and game situations.
  • Coordinate and deliver advanced reports to Major League staff in a timely, usable format.

Research, Modeling & Data Preparation

  • Assist analysts with data preparation, validation, cleaning, and quality checks for modeling and reporting workflows.
  • Support predictive modeling projects by preparing datasets, engineering features, checking assumptions, and validating outputs.
  • Conduct research related to player development, scouting, player personnel, league trends, and other Baseball Operations priorities.
  • Support R&D staff with highly technical analysis, model development, and exploratory research based on departmental needs and the Fellow’s skills and interests.

Reporting, Visualization & Communication

  • Develop visualizations, dashboards, lightweight tools, and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results across Baseball Operations.
  • Translate complex technical findings into clear, concise, and actionable insights for both technical and non-technical stakeholders.
  • Provide written summaries, presentations, and recommendations that clearly describe methodology, assumptions, limitations, and practical implications.
  • Help maintain and QA internal datasets, reports, and recurring workflows to ensure accuracy and consistency across sources.

Operational Support

  • Provide operational support across Baseball Operations and R&D, including recurring reporting, special projects, and time-sensitive requests.
  • Take ownership of assigned tasks and small-to-medium projects, driving them forward with limited day-to-day supervision.
  • Collaborate with analysts, developers, scouts, coaches, and front office personnel to understand needs and deliver practical solutions.
  • Contribute to a positive, curious, and collaborative Baseball Operations environment.

QUALIFICATIONS:

Required

  • Bachelor’s degree in a technical, quantitative, or otherwise relevant field, or equivalent demonstrated experience.
  • Proficiency with SQL and at least one statistical programming language, such as R or Python.
  • Experience preparing, cleaning, validating, and analyzing large or complex datasets.
  • Foundational understanding of statistics, modeling, data visualization, and research design.
  • Strong written and verbal communication skills, including the ability to explain analytical work to technical and non-technical audiences.
  • Demonstrated ability to work autonomously, manage competing priorities, communicate frequently, and proactively surface questions or risks.
  • Passion for baseball and curiosity about using data to support player evaluation, player development, scouting, and in-game decision-making.

Preferred

  • Degree or coursework in statistics, mathematics, computer science, data science, engineering, economics, operations research, physics, or a related technical field.
  • Experience with AWS or another cloud environment.
  • Experience using Git or similar version control workflows.
  • Experience developing web applications, dashboards, or interactive tools, including R Shiny, Python-based web apps, or similar frameworks.
  • Experience with machine learning, predictive modeling, simulation, computer vision, or player-tracking data.
  • Prior experience using AI tools to support software development, application building, analysis, or workflow automation; experience with Claude or similar tools is a plus.
  • Familiarity with public baseball research, baseball datasets, player evaluation concepts, scouting processes, or advanced scouting workflows.

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

  • This role follows the rhythm of the baseball season and requires flexibility based on game schedules, reporting cycles, and Baseball Operation’s needs.
  • Workload and schedule may fluctuate throughout the season based on game schedules, trade deadlines, draft preparation, player evaluation cycles, and other departmental priorities.

PHYSICAL REQUIREMENTS

  • Sedentary work: regularly required to remain in a stationary position, use a computer, communicate via phone/video/email, and review information on screens for extended periods.
  • Occasionally required to move within an office or ballpark environment and attend meetings or events in person.

COMPENSATION & BENEFITS

  • Salary: at the rate of $58,000 per year. The role is expected to earn approximately $25,000 for the duration of the assignment through October 31, 2026.
  • This role may come with a housing stipend for non-local candidates.
  • Full benefits package including medical, dental, vision, 401(k), PTO, and more, subject to plan eligibility and applicable policies.

APPLICATION PROCESS:

  • Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis but must be received by May 22, 2026. Please note that this is just an estimate, and the posting may be removed or extended at any time.
  • The estimated time to complete the recruitment process will be by June 15, 2026.
  • A note for Colorado Rockies employees:
    • Please apply via the internal job board in UKG by following these prompts: MENU > MYSELF > MY COMPANY > VIEW OPPORTUNITIES > select the position > CONSENT > APPLY NOW
    • If you cannot access UKG, please list your most recent Manager as an Employee Reference on your application.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.


Baseball Analytics Associate

ABOUT US

The Colorado Rockies Baseball Club is embracing the climb, committed to building a championship-caliber organization on the field, in the clubhouse, and throughout our business operations. Playing at altitude presents unique competitive challenges and opportunities, and we embrace innovation, collaboration, and evidence-based practices to support elite performance. Rooted in the traditions of America’s pastime, we operate with integrity, service, quality, and trust while striving to create an exceptional experience for our players, staff, and fans.

ABOUT THE ROLE

The Baseball Analytics Associate will provide part-time analytical, reporting, visualization, and operational support to Baseball Operations and Research & Development. This role is well suited for a current student or early-career analyst who can contribute independently to recurring reports, data validation, ad hoc research, and lightweight tools while continuing to build technical and baseball operations experience.

RESPONSIBILITIES

Advance Preparation & Game Strategy

  • Assist in the preparation, quality review, and distribution of advance scouting reports for upcoming opponents.
  • Monitor daily lineups, roster moves, transactions, and other league information to support game planning and analysis.
  • Conduct ad hoc research to inform game strategy, including analysis of ABS-related questions and comparisons across players, teams, and game situations.
  • Coordinate and deliver advanced reports to Major League staff in a timely, usable format.

Research, Modeling & Data Preparation

  • Assist analysts with data preparation, validation, cleaning, and quality checks for modeling and reporting workflows.
  • Support predictive modeling projects by preparing datasets, engineering features, checking assumptions, and validating outputs.
  • Conduct research related to player development, scouting, player personnel, league trends, and other Baseball Operations priorities.
  • Support R&D staff with highly technical analysis, model development, and exploratory research based on departmental needs and the Fellow’s skills and interests.

Reporting, Visualization & Communication

  • Develop visualizations, dashboards, lightweight tools, and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results across Baseball Operations.
  • Translate complex technical findings into clear, concise, and actionable insights for both technical and non-technical stakeholders.
  • Provide written summaries, presentations, and recommendations that clearly describe methodology, assumptions, limitations, and practical implications.
  • Help maintain and QA internal datasets, reports, and recurring workflows to ensure accuracy and consistency across sources.

Operational Support

  • Provide operational support across Baseball Operations and R&D, including recurring reporting, special projects, and time-sensitive requests.
  • Take ownership of assigned tasks and small-to-medium projects, driving them forward with limited day-to-day supervision.
  • Collaborate with analysts, developers, scouts, coaches, and front office personnel to understand needs and deliver practical solutions.
  • Contribute to a positive, curious, and collaborative Baseball Operations environment.

QUALIFICATIONS:

Required

  • Currently enrolled in or recently completed an undergraduate (Junior going into Senior Year), graduate, PhD, postdoctoral, or technical program, preferably with a quantitative or technical focus.
  • Experience with SQL and R or Python.
  • General cloud experience, AWS exposure preferred.
  • Experience with Git or similar version control preferred.
  • Ability to communicate clearly, manage time independently, and provide frequent updates in a remote or hybrid environment.
  • Interest in baseball analytics, player evaluation, advanced scouting, and/or game strategy.
  • Ability to work in the United States and maintain availability during required Mountain Time work windows.

Preferred

  • Degree or coursework in statistics, mathematics, computer science, data science, engineering, Experience with AWS or another cloud environment.
  • Experience using Git or similar version control workflows.
  • Experience developing web applications, dashboards, or interactive tools, including R Shiny, Python-based web apps, or similar frameworks.
  • Experience with machine learning, predictive modeling, simulation, computer vision, or player-tracking data.
  • Prior experience using AI tools to support software development, application building, analysis, or workflow automation; experience with Claude or similar tools is a plus.
  • Familiarity with public baseball research, baseball datasets, player evaluation concepts, scouting processes, or advanced scouting workflows.

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

  • This role follows the rhythm of the baseball season and requires flexibility based on game schedules, reporting cycles, and Baseball Operations needs.
  • Workload and schedule may fluctuate throughout the season based on game schedules, trade deadlines, draft preparation, player evaluation cycles, and other departmental priorities.

PHYSICAL REQUIREMENTS

  • Sedentary work: regularly required to remain in a stationary position, use a computer, communicate via phone/video/email, and review information on screens for extended periods.
  • Occasionally required to move within an office or ballpark environment and attend meetings or events in person.

COMPENSATION & BENEFITS

  • Salary: at the rate of $19.29 per hour for the duration of the assignment through October 31, 2026.
  • Part-time benefits include 401(k), sick time, and access to the Employee Assistance Program, subject to plan eligibility and applicable policies.

APPLICATION PROCESS:

  • Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis but must be received by May 22, 2026. Please note that this is just an estimate, and the posting may be removed or extended at any time.
  • The estimated time to complete the recruitment process will be by June 15, 2026.
  • A note for Colorado Rockies employees:
    • Please apply via the internal job board in UKG by following these prompts: MENU > MYSELF > MY COMPANY > VIEW OPPORTUNITIES > select the position > CONSENT > APPLY NOW
    • If you cannot access UKG, please list your most recent Manager as an Employee Reference on your application.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Colorado Rockies.


Cristopher Sánchez, Continuously Improving

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

In high school statistics, we got one rule beaten into our heads over and over again: Don’t extrapolate outside the bounds of your data. Then, when we were done learning that one, we got another rule: Outliers tend to revert towards the mean. Gee, thanks a lot, Mr. Gilliam – how am I supposed to explain Cristopher Sánchez using those two rules?

Look at this table of pitching statistics. Clearly, extrapolating past the edge of Sánchez’s performance seems fine:

Cristopher Sánchez Keeps Getting Better
Year K% BB% ERA xERA FIP xFIP SIERA WAR/200 IP
2023 24.2% 4.0% 3.44 3.72 3.99 3.09 3.33 3.6
2024 20.3% 5.8% 3.32 3.60 3 3.19 3.58 5.2
2025 26.3% 5.5% 2.5 3.02 2.55 2.77 3.02 6.3
2026 29.9% 5.2% 1.82 2.74 1.91 2.27 2.48 7.8

We have all of these ERA estimators – FIP, xFIP, xERA, SIERA – because merely looking at someone’s ERA can be misleading. ERA is noisy. Between inherited runners, sequencing, scoring decisions, and just plain old variance, knowing a player’s ERA in one year doesn’t necessarily mean you know how well they played. The whole alphabet of advanced pitching statistics comes down to trying to solve that noise problem by focusing on indicators with greater stability.

In other words, advanced ERA estimators tend to move around less than actual ERA. It follows naturally that changes in ERA estimators are more predictive of future results than changes in ERA. When all of these markers are moving in tandem – and moving by a lot, to boot – the aggregate picture looks very different than your average pitcher with a shiny ERA early in the season. Read the rest of this entry »