Instead of accepting a long-term extension with the Yankees before the season, Aaron Judge made a gigantic bet on himself. A seven-year, $213.5 million deal that starts at age 31 is no small bid for any player, and it was more than the projections — at least ZiPS — predicted at the time. But Judge clearly felt that his chances of doing significantly better outweighed the risks involved in playing out his final year of team control. Well, short of discovering he can throw 102 mph and pair it with a wicked slider, it’s hard to imagine a better season in terms of increasing the value of his next contract than Judge’s 2022. To my mind, he will almost certainly win the American League MVP — not because what Shohei Ohtani has done isn’t magical, but because the Yankees outfielder has put up one of the rare offensive seasons in MLB history that can match such an extreme level of two-way excellence. So just how high might Judge’s contract realistically go this offseason?

First off, let me stress that some appear to be underrating Judge’s season. In some quarters of the tired AL MVP debates on social media, you’ll see it described as just an ordinarily great offensive season rather than one that belongs in the history books besides those of Barry Bonds. By our reckoning, there have only been 55 position players seasons in history that notched double-digit WAR, and not all of those were driven primarily by hitting, but rather fielding (Cal Ripken Jr.), a healthy dose of transcendent baserunning (Rickey Henderson), or an incredibly weak league (Fred Dunlap). The vast majority of years like this are put up by Hall of Famers, so Judge is in rarefied air. There’s no question that he is having a special season.

The problem is that Judge isn’t likely to be paid directly for his special 2022 season, only the increased expectations resulting from such a high-level performance. Even if the Yankees were inclined to give a franchise player a bonus for an MVP season that was played in their uniform but was cost-controlled, no other team is likely to be as generous in rewarding a performance from which they didn’t benefit. When trying to gauge what Judge is likely to get, a few factors work against him, factors over which he has very little control. The biggest is that, again, the first year of his new contract will fall in his age-31 season, which means that no matter how high you think Judge’s baseline expectation is, he’s going to be expected to decline quite significantly throughout the course of the contract and relatively quickly. It’s not a coincidence that, with the nearly sole exception of Joey Votto, the mega-contracts that work out from the perspective of teams are those that start off at a very young age. Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers are in a bad way; three games under .500 since the start of August, they’ve fallen out of playoff position despite their primary competition — the Padres and Phillies — not exactly lighting the world on fire themselves. It might, therefore, seem an odd time to praise Willy Adames, only there’s never really a bad time to praise Willy Adames, and hardly anybody ever seems to do it.

Adames is red-hot at the moment, with a 148 wRC+ in September, and has been pretty good at the plate this year overall. He ranks second among shortstops in home runs with 30, and is tied for third in slugging percentage behind Trea Turner and Bo Bichette. When the Rays went to the World Series two years ago, Adames was an afterthought. He didn’t hit much that postseason, and all the attention (deservedly) went to Randy Arozarena and the Rays’ bullpen arm clock.

But the thing the Rays did better that year than anyone else was play the matchups. It seemed like a player for each position at each matchup, and sometimes they’d pull an NHL-style line change mid-game if the circumstances dictated it. Adames was the one exception. He was the shortstop when the Rays were leading or trailing, early and late, against left-handed and right-handed batters. Apart from the last three innings of Game 1 of the World Series, Adames played every minute of that Tampa Bay postseason run. (Only Arozarena, who was lifted for defense for a half-inning in four distinct games, played more.) Read the rest of this entry »

Clarke Schmidt has added an important weapon to his arsenal since he was first featured here at FanGraphs in January 2021. Given the organization he plays for, it isn’t much of a surprise that that addition is a sweeping slider — or, in New York Yankees vernacular, a “whirly.” The 26-year-old right-hander is throwing his version of the pitch 37.2% of the time this season, and with great success: Opposing hitters are batting just .148 against the offering, with a .164 SLG and a .186 wOBA.

His overall numbers are likewise impressive. The 2017 first-round pick has made 23 appearances this year — all but three out the bullpen — and boasts a 2.82 ERA and a 3.17 FIP. He’s allowed 41 hits and fanned 51 batters in the same number of innings.

Schmidt discussed his “baby whirly” when the Yankees visited Fenway Park earlier this month.

——

David Laurila: We talked pitching prior to last season. What’s changed since that time?

Clarke Schmidt: “When we spoke, I wouldn’t have been throwing a slider. That’s the main thing I’ve added, and it’s probably been my biggest pitch this year. My usage has been high, and I’ve had some really good results with it. Beyond that, I’ve cleaned up some things — some arm path stuff — and there has probably been more maturity in my pitch selection. But I’d say that the slider has been the number one change.”

Laurila: I recall you saying in January 2021 that some people considered your curveball more of a slider.

Schmidt: “For sure. I’ve always had a big breaking ball, but it’s hard — it’s 84-85 [mph] — so even though people are throwing harder curveballs now, it does get considered a slider sometimes. But now that I’m throwing both, there are distinct differences. I have two different shapes. Read the rest of this entry »

I think we could all use a little more positive reinforcement in our lives. Imagine typing away at your desk job (c’mon, it’s not that much of a stretch to guess that you’re reading this at work) when your boss sends you a message. “Hey there,” they say. “You just set a record! You contributed positively to 13 meetings in a row. I’d like to take the webcam you were using for those meetings and put it in the Hall of Fame.”

Wouldn’t that feel great? Sure, it’s kind of meaningless, but let’s assume your job is important enough that people actually go to this Hall of Fame. It would be awesome! Look, the suspenders that a manager wore while suggesting casual Fridays for the first time. Behold the napkins left behind from the first successful working lunch. I’d enjoy getting credit for random records once in a while. It feels good to do something no one else has ever done.

Setting a record, any record, is inherently cool. But setting a record for something that everyone who does your job is always trying to do? That’s an entirely different level. An example: J.P. Feyereisen is out for the remainder of the year, which means that he’ll set a modern record at the conclusion of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 993

On this episode of the podcast, we sit down with a veteran major league manager before considering the latest Triple Crown chase.

• To kick things off, David Laurila welcomes A.J. Hinch, former catcher and current manager of the Detroit Tigers. Hinch recently passed Rogers Hornsby on the all-time managerial wins list, and he isn’t upset to hear the comparison. We learn what it is like to work with pitching coach Chris Fetter and vice president of player development Ryan Garko as they lead this group of young Tigers and try to prepare the team’s next competitive core. We also get insight into Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Alex Faedo, Beau Brieske, Joey Wentz, Matt Manning, and more. And although this segment was recorded just before the Tigers announced their new president of baseball operations, we hear why Hinch wasn’t interested in the role and instead has his focus on the field. Hinch also shares his thoughts on how important it is for pitchers to get strikeouts, the fences moving at Comerica Park and elsewhere, bench coach George Lombard’s potential future in managing, and the rule changes that will limit defensive shifting starting in 2023. [4:40]
• In the second half, Ben Clemens is joined by Dan Szymborski to banter about the latest baseball happenings, highlighted by the possibility of a Triple Crown-winning hitter. Aaron Judge is within reach of the goal, and while Paul Goldschmidt is unlikely to nab it in the National League, he does find himself in an MVP race with teammate Nolan Arenado. Ben and Dan discuss the top-heavy Yankees and Cardinals, the rebuilding and still-intriguing Detroit Tigers, J.P. Feyreisen’s under-the-radar achievement, and why it is really difficult to believe reports out of front offices. Finally, Dan shares why he enjoys (playfully) misleading his friends and family, and why he has ended up with more snacks than he needs. [34:42]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 74 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about pitchers throwing a perplexing number of strikes to an unstoppable Aaron Judge, Judge’s sensational September, upcoming contract, and more, Shohei Ohtani’s pitching prowess, new pitches, and switch-hitting potential, Oneil Cruz’s recent surge, Yordan Alvarez and how much of slumps can be explained by nagging injuries, Max Scherzer and other pitchers getting pulled from in-progress no-hitters or perfect games, the continued excellence of post-peak Clayton Kershaw, the record quality-start streak of Framber Valdez, the bouncebacks of Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish, the record longevity of Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina as a pitcher-catcher duo, and the broken bones of Ozzie Albies and Chris Sale, plus updates on Fox’s flames and the sale of Twins.com, a Past Blast from 1905, and a few final followups.

Audio intro: 10cc, “Good Morning Judge”
Audio outro: The Inbreds, “Don’t Try So Hard”

Link to Judge’s 60th
Link to Judge and the Triple Crown
Link to Petriello on Judge’s season
Link to Craig’s judge homers thread
Link to September player zone rates
Link to September MLB zone rate
Link to tweet about Judge’s 5 Barrels
Link to wiki for multiple-alarm fire
Link to new Ohtani breaking ball
Link to new Ohtani sinker
Link to Ohtani FTX ad
Link to Cruz against deGrom
Link to Cruz’s shot into river
Link to BP on Cruz
Link to article on injured Alvarez
Link to Scherzer on being pulled
Link to article about May
Link to Stathead on hitless starts
Link to article on Framber’s QS streak
Link to Stathead on longest QS streaks
Link to article on Jack Taylor
Link to post on long pitching streaks
Link to Dan S. on Bieber and Nola
Link to Katie on Wainwright/Molina
Link to Sale’s 2022
Link to Albies’ 2022
Link to Jay Jaffe on Albies
Link to Sam on flames
Link to score bug EW episode
Link to Ben on Twins.com
Link to 1905 story source
Link to 1905 game
Link to info on gloves on field
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to 1906 pit story
Link to Sam on the pit
Link to Ashburn quote
Link to football grenade photo
Link to Bugs Bunny video clip

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Elvis Andrus didn’t come to Chicago as a marquee attraction. He wasn’t a trade deadline acquisition; rather, the A’s released him on August 17, and the White Sox signed him two days later. At the time, it felt notable for a completely unrelated reason: Andrus had an option with the A’s that was close to vesting, one that would pay him $15 million next year. The White Sox, meanwhile, had serious depth issues; with Tim Anderson and Leury Garcia both on the IL, they were short on middle infielders, and Andrus was the only way to add someone from outside the organization.

It was, in hindsight, a stroke of serendipity. The White Sox were desperately in need of freely available competence. If their spate of injuries had happened three weeks earlier, they would have had any number of options on the trade market. Given the timing, though, it was Andrus or nothing. If he’d merely played as well as he did in Oakland, he’d have been an excellent stopgap. Instead, he’s been the sixth-best offensive player in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

After Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani — in whatever order you want to place them in, I’ve said my piece — there might be no player in the majors who’s putting up numbers that boggle the mind as Spencer Strider’s do. The fireballing 23-year-old rookie has been utterly dominant this season, particularly since entering the Braves’ rotation on May 30. In Sunday’s start against the Phillies, he reached 200 strikeouts for the season, joining and even outdoing some notable company along the way.

Via his usual one-two punch of an upper-90s four-seam fastball and a baffling slider, Strider struck out 10 Phillies in six innings during his 5–2 victory, with Nick Maton going down swinging against a 99-mph heater in the fifth inning for no. 200. Strider had a no-hitter in progress at the time, and he maintained it for 5.2 innings before Alec Bohm connected against him for a solo homer.

Strider became the sixth pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts this season. What’s extraordinary is how few innings he needed to do it relative to the previous five:

In fact, Strider set a record for the fewest innings needed to reach the 200-strikeout plateau, doing so in 130 innings, 0.2 fewer than Randy Johnson needed in 2001. Cole was the second-fastest by that measure, doing so in 133.2 innings in 2019. Read the rest of this entry »

What does it mean that a team is 55% likely to make the playoffs, or 45% likely? It sounds like it means it’ll be right on the cusp of the playoffs at year’s end — the kind of team that spends the last week of the year either sighing in relief at a narrow escape or ruing a few one-run losses that did it in.

Sure, that’s definitely true sometimes. Often, though, the numbers don’t work out quite so suspensefully. Sometimes, your 50% chance decays to zero or climbs to a near certainty far before any dramatic ending. For proof of this, look no further than the race for the AL Central, which went from toss-up to fait accompli over the first half of September.

On September 4, the Guardians had just finished getting their clocks cleaned by fellow AL playoff hopefuls. Over a ten-game span — seven against Seattle, three against Baltimore — they went 2–8, dropping their record to 68–64. In that same span, the Twins had gone 6–3, raising their record to an identical 68–64. Our playoff odds gave the Guardians the better chance at winning the AL Central, but it was close: 43% for Cleveland, 39% for Minnesota. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »